daveh's Revised Top 150 prospects 2010
by daveh33 on Feb 1, 2010 12:26 AM EST
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First time I've done a Revised list, but as The Dude so put it:
"I dropped off the money exactly as per... look, man, I've got certain information, all right? Certain things have come to light."
To compare with my top 110 from October / to see what things have come to light, the link is right here
I approach my lists as a GM drafting for my team. "Take the best player available". Whether that player is in short-season A-ball or AAA, its a balance. Yes, a guy in AAA has possibly beat some of the injury nexus and has proven he can play up to the AAA level, so it is taken into consideration, as are: Tools, Skills, Projectability, Body, Athleticism, ARL, Scouting Reports, and of course The Numbers. [i also love upside].
Been working on this for about a month. tweaking along as I discover new video and new scouting reports.
Since this is John's site, and as a way to compare, I've included John's grades next to their names. I'll throw in a comment or two along the way.
1. Jason Heyward - OF ATL [A] - - my tongue is purple from all of the Heyward kool-aid
2. Stephen Strasburg - P WAS [A]
3. Buster Posey - C SF [A]
4. Carlos Santana - C CLE [A]
5. Michael Stanton - OF FLA [A-]
6. Desmond Jennings - CF TB [A]
7. Jesus Montero - C/DH NYY [A]
8. Brian Matusz - P BAL [A]
9. Neftali Feliz - P TEX [A]
10. Dustin Ackley - CF/2B SEA [A-] - - I think he's been a tad under-rated around here. [2B? lol...?]
11. Martin Perez - P TEX [A-]
12. Domonic Brown - OF PHI [B+]
13. Justin Smoak - 1B TEX [A-]
14. Pedro Alvarez - 3B/1B PIT [A]
15. Christian Friedrich - P COL [B+]
16. Aroldis Chapman - P CIN [A-]
17. Logan Morrison - 1B/OF FLA [B+]
18. Jeremy Hellickson - P TB [A-]
19. Jenrry Mejia - P NYM [B+] - - at 0:10-12 that looks like an out pitch . tremendous movement.
20. Michael Taylor - OF OAK [B+]
21. Wade Davis - P TB [A-]
22. Chris Carter - 1B/DH OAK [A-]
23. Lonnie Chisenhall - 3B CLE [B+]
24. Aaron Hicks - CF MIN [B+] - - I finally gave in to the scouting reports. his ceiling es grande.
25. Matthew Moore - P TB [B+] - - new nickname : K-9
26. Starlin Castro - SS CHC [B+] - - Also snuck up the list after more scouting reports and video.
27. Kyle Drabek - P TOR [B+] - - One guy that I like more than his numbers suggest I should
28. Madison Bumgarner - P SF [A-] - - Really cautious, still.
29. Derek Norris - C WAS [B+] - - On the cusp of the elite C crop. Best chance to be C. Santana 2.0
30. Tyler Matzek - P COL [B+] - - Best stuff after Stras and Schepp
31. Fernando Martinez - OF NYM [B+] - - Love the ISOP and the ARL in AAA. Not sure about his Def.
32. Casey Kelly - P BOS [B+] - - Slowly peeling away my skepticism, almost made my top 30.
33. Freddie Freeman - 1B ATL [B+] - - I believe in the bat. strong ARL and good reports from BA
34. Alcides Escobar - SS MIL [B+] - - Not quite sold on the bat. But he will likely be a valuable player
35. Mike Montgomery - P KC [B+]
36. Chris Withrow - P LAD [B+] - - I was tempted to put him really high, like top 25 high...
37. Aaron Crow - P KC [B] - - I think John underrated him.
38. Ryan Westmoreland - CF BOS [B+] - - need to see him healthy and in full-season ball
39. Brett Wallace - 1B TOR [B+] - - so apparently he's a 1B. like the bat, but i don't see it as elite for 1B
40. Devaris Gordon - SS LAD [B+] - - like Hicks, really warmed up to him / drool-worthy reports.
41. Jordan Lyles - P HOU [B+] - - trying to be practical here, but I love his arm a lot. stock watch
42. Julio Teheran - P ATL [B] - - same with Lyles, I probably rated him too highly in October.
43. Todd Frazier - 2B/3B/OF CIN [B+] - - not sure where he's gonna play, but I love his bat
44. Casey Crosby - P DET [B+]
45. Donovan Tate - CF SD [B+] - - watched vid of him, toolsy dude.
46. Grant Green - SS OAK [B+] - - really like the bat, if he stays a SS, could be huge.
47. Simon Castro - P SD [B+] - - this may be an under-ranking. He needs more pub.
48. Jacob Turner - P DET [B+] - - doesn't quite have the stuff of Matzek
49. Jared Mitchell - CF CHW [B] - - Give in to the TOOLS. let's see what he does without football now
50. Hector Rondon - P CLE [B] - - hard guy to rank. dropped him a bit because unsure how good stuff is
51. Wil Myers - C KC [B] - - mancrush. jayson werth 2.0? can he stick at C? if so, drool.
52. Reid Brignac - SS TB [B-] - - underrated by most, loved by few. saw him play in sept, he'll be a SS
53. Yonder Alonso - 1B CIN [B+] - - lacking stats, defense & bat vs. lefties in question.
54. Josh Bell - 3B BAL [B]
55. Jaff Decker - OF SD [B] - - bad body, very questionable D drop him. let's see how he advances
56. Arodys Vizcaino - P ATL [B] - - he and Colome sound darn near identical in upside. i'm intrigued
57. Alex Colome - P TB [B]
58. Jhoulys Chacin - P COL [B+] - - should be serviceable but i don't see star.
59. Brett Lawrie - 2B/OF MIL [B+] - - will he stick at 2B?
60. Shelby Miller - P STL [B] - - really like him, i almost went much higher on him.
61. Kyle Gibson - P MIN [B-] - - major questions about his health, but some experts think its a 'go'
62. Dan Hudson - P CHW [B+]
63. Zach Stewart - P TOR [B+]
64. Tanner Scheppers - P TEX [B+] - - same boat as Gibson. major major stuff though.
65. Josh Reddick - CF/OF BOS [B] - - love the power potential / ISOP in the eastern league.
66. Mike Trout - CF LAA [B+] - - not quite as toolsy as Mitchell/Tate? could surpass them though
67. Tim Beckham - SS TB [B-] - - report after report of a bad body / position shift worry
68. Tim Melville - P KC [B] - - really like him. i think he may be in for a big year / stock watch
69. Tyler Flowers - C/DH CHW [B] - - knees and D worry me. if he doesn't catch, he belongs in the 100s
70. Mike Moustakas - 3B KC [B] - - make-or-break year to me.
71. Brett Jackson - CF CHC [B]
72. Jose Iglesias - SS BOS [C+] - - looks really slick, but small next to Castro . watch
73. Zach Britton - P BAL [B]
74. Ryan Kalish - CF BOS [B] - - I've been warming up to him. want to see him healthy before i go higher
75. Hank Conger - C LAA [B+] - - almost put him above Flowers. I believe in the bat
76. Danny Duffy - P KC [B]
77. Jay Jackson - P CHC [B]
78. Ethan Martin - P LAD [B]
79. Jake Arrieta - P BAL [B+]
80. Josh Vitters - 3B CHC [B] - - i worry what he'll do in higher levels... definitely not sold.
81. Alex Avila - C DET [B] - - looks like a potential above-average C in MLB. very valuable
82. Jiovanni Mier - SS HOU [B] - - love him, but trying not to put too much into rookie-ball numbers
83. Zach Wheeler - P SF [B]
84. James Darnell - 3B SD [B]
85. Matt Dominguez - 3B FLA [B] - - need to see that he can hit. not very optimistic about his stick
86. Manny Banuelos - P NYY [B-] - - seems very underrated, except by that one ex-scout dude.
87. Mat Gamel - 3B/OF MIL [B-] - - is he really a 3B?
88. Michael Saunders - OF SEA [B]
89. Nick Weglarz - OF CLE [B-] - - I strongly believe in his bat.
90. Hak-Ju Lee - SS CHC [B] - - very good reports on his D. i think he could rocket up lists real quick.
91. Mike Leake - P CIN [B]
92. Wilmer Flores - SS NYM [B+] - - unsure of where to put him, and i've seen him play. bat control a +
93. Jason Castro - C HOU [B+] - - i see an MLB regular, with a lesser bat than Avila
94. Jarrod Parker - P ARI [B-] - - and now we wait.
95. Alex White - P CLE [B]
96. Scott Sizemore - 2B DET [B] - - i think he doesn't get enough pub. love the bat at 2B
97. Austin Romine - C NYY [B]
98. Tony Sanchez - C PIT [B]
99. Austin Jackson - CF DET [B] - - could be good, could be 4th OFer / don't see the bat.
100. Danny Espinosa - SS WAS [B]
101. Drew Storen - RP WAS [B+] - - a see a good reliever at the least, could be standout closer.
102. Wynn Pelzer - P SD [B] - - i always forget about him, but the more i read, more i like, very intriguing.
103. Eric Hosmer - 1B KC [B-]
104. Ike Davis - 1B NYM [B]
105. Thomas Neal - OF SF [B] - - let's see him do it out of the CAL league
106. Wilmer Font - P TEX [B]
107. Jemile Weeks - 2B OAK [B-] - - love the wheels/bloodlines, not sure of the bat.
108. Nick Hagadone - P CLE [B]
109. Trevor Reckling - P LAA [B]
110. Chase D'Arnaud - 2B/SS PIT [C+] - - not sure why John gave him a C+
111. Travis D'Arnaud - C TOR [B]
112. Randall Delgado - P ATL [B]
113. Trevor May - P PHI [B-] - - I'm listening.
114. Bobby Borchering - 3B ARI [B-] - - really intrigued, let's see what he can do
115. Noel Arguelles - P KC [C+] - - saw vid of him, liked it. love what's going down in KC right now
116. Jason Knapp - P CLE [B-]
117. Ben Revere - CF MIN [B]
118. Kyle Allen - P NYM [B-] - - saw him live, seems very underrated. loves to compete and play the game
119. Reymond Fuentes - CF BOS [B-] - - this is the kind of toolset that i like. very interesting
120. Brandon Allen - 1B ARI [B-]
121. Miguel Sano - SS MIN [C+]
122. Aaron Miller - P LAD [B]
123. Chad James - P FLA [B] - - could be huge. love the upside
124. Garrett Richards - P LAA [B]
125. Christian Bethancourt - C ATL [B-]
126. Everett Williams - CF SD [B] - - SD is stepping up its prospect game. nice tools
127. Mike Minor - P ATL [B-]
128. Rex Brothers - RP COL [B-] - - really love this arm. huge closer potential
129. Brandon Erbe - P BAL [B-]
130. Jon Niese - P NYM [B]
131. Wilson Ramos - C MIN [B-]
132. Eric Arnett - P MIL [B]
133. Anthony Rizzo - 1B BOS [B-]
134. Michael Main - P TEX [B]
135. Andrew Cashner - SP/RP CHC [B] - - reliever?
136. John Lamb - P KC [B-] - - my oh my, another lefty in KC.
137. Alex Liddi - 3B SEA [B-]
138. Anthony Capra - P OAK [C+] - - love the K/9. underrated
139. Daryl Jones - OF STL [B-] - - let's see you be healthy, dude
140. Brad Lincoln - P PIT [B-] - - looks like a serviceable starter, maybe more, should probably be higher
141. Chris Heisey - CF CIN [B]
142. Junichi Tazawa - P BOS [B-]
143. Jeurys Familia - P NYM [B-]
144. Adrian Cardenas - 2B OAK [B-]
145. Alex Torres - P TB [B-]
146. Phillipe Aumont - P PHI [B-] - - really unsure of this guy.
147. Logan Forsythe - 3B SD [B-]
148. Scott Elbert - RP/SP LAD [B-]
149. Carlos Carrasco - P CLE [B-]
150. Ryan Strieby - 1B/OF DET [B-] - - almost put Lucroy here, almost Hobgood. but I love dude's power bat
top teams:
KC: 9
TB: 8
BOS: 8
CLE: 8
NYM: 7
ATL: 7
SD: 7
honorable mentions:
Matt Hobgood - P BAL [B-]
Reese Havens - 2B NYM [B-]
Slade Heathcott - OF NYY [B-]
Gabriel Noriega - SS SEA [B-]
Nick Barnese - P TB [B-]
Tyson Gillies - CF PHI [C+]
Josh Lindblom - P LAD [B]
Peter Bourjos - OF LAA [B-]
Jonathan Lucroy - C MIL [B]
Max Stassi - C OAK [B-]
Most honorable mention:
Grant Desme - P CAT
by position:
C: 14
1B: 11
2B: 7
SS: 12
3B: 11
CF: 14
OF: 10
P: 71
pitchers: 71 { 42 in the 1-100 range, 29 in the 101-150 range}
hitters: 79
highest ranked:
A- : Mike Stanton [reasoning : power/ceiling]
B+: Domonic Brown [reasoning : toolshed/ceiling]
B : Aaron Crow [reasoning : stuff/readiness/ceiling]
B- : Reid Brignac [reasoning : power potential at SS/advanced defense]
C+: Jose Iglesias [reasoning : scouting reports/advanced defense/value]
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Comments
I dont like your Ike Davis ranking
But the rest is pretty good
5 MORE YEARS OF FELIX!
Davis is tough
he and Neal ended up dropping a lot, mostly because I was under-ranking some of the new 09 draft guys and international signing guys, and I wasn’t paying as much attention to defense. {J Iglesias, etc}.
so guys like Davis, Neal, Hosmer, Weglarz, have little room for error with the bat, because i don’t think they’ll accrue much value/WAR on D.
the 91 – 110 guys shifted a lot during my process.
Gamel v. Saunders...
Gamel: bad defensive 3B, probable move to 1B, no clear path to major league playing time. 23 years old, hit .278/.367/.473 in the PCL.
Saunders: excellent defensive LF (borderline capable CF, but won’t play there in the majors), 22 years old, hit .310/.378/.544 in the same league.
I really, really don’t understand how Saunders gets so underrated on these lists. He struck out almost half as often as Gamel, his .ISO was .039 higher, and his defensive value is in another league entirely.
If the Mariners traded Saunders for Gamel today, I’d be furious. He’s a better prospect.
Gamel still played 3B all last year
otherwise I would have knocked him down several spots…
top 50 is very set, top 75 pretty set, the further down you go tho, the less a spot matters… I had originally planned on going to 200 but i realized there wouldn’t be much point, as by that point I’d mostly just be picking my favorites
He played 3B,
but he’s likely -10 at least there, while Saunders is a +10 fielder in LF (at least – you’ve gotta watch him play. He’s awesome). There’s absolutely no reason to believe Gamel’s so much better with the bat that he’ll make up for the difference in defensive value. Chances are Gamel will end up either an absolute brutal 3B (like 15 runs below average), or a slightly less awful 1B (knocking 15 runs off his positional adjustment).
Saunders also hit better at the same level a year younger. I see literally no reason to prefer Gamel.
I took the risk on Gamel not being -10 at 3B
I think if he was really that bad, MIL brass would’ve pushed him off last year, but maybe I under-estimated his terribleness
Honestly, I think -10 is generous.
Milwaukee let Ryan Braun play 3B up to and including the major leagues despite similar scouting reports (it’s not an uncommon opinion that Gamel’s even worse at the hot corner). Braun’s UZR/150 in the 2/3rds of a season he played third was -35.5. The Brewers front office brass absolutely don’t get a pass when dealing with prospects who are poor defensive players.
He's stressed defense...
since coming to Seattle, but it was a real problem on Doug Melvin’s teams last decade.
I'm well aware.
What’s your point? The Brewers played some very poor defenders in the past few years at the major league level. None of this has anything to do with the fact that Jack Zduriencik ran their amateur scouting department.
Your responses are weird, man.
Have you watched Gamel?
Describing him as absolutely brutal seems way over the top. Gamel also hit better most of his career in the minors. Last year he bounced back and forth.
I have.
He’s got bad range, bad footwork, and a mediocre arm.
Now I know you're making it up as you go
He’s got plenty of range and a strong arm. I forget whether it was Law or Goldstein who talked about his weak arm and side arm throw. He has an overhand throw and he looks like he has a strong arm. When he screws up its often because of his footwork but he can make all the plays. His footwork is variable, sometimes great, sometimes not.
I have seen him
Gamel has decent range and a decent throwing arm. He just doesn’t field the balls hit right to him.
I am not sold that he can stick at 3B.
+1!
I agree he has a plus arm [very good arm strength] and his footwork is totally fine as well. He gets into trouble when he fields the ball and has too much time to think about the throw.
I guess he has "too much time" pretty regularly then
I dont buy it. My money is on him ending up at 1B.
I'm really not.
I watched a handful of Nashville games on milb.tv last year and got to watch him. He absolutely does not have “plenty of range.” I don’t think I’m particularly qualified to evaluate the pure strength of a guy’s arm from video feeds, but I wasn’t at all impressed with his release, which I think is much more important.
You’re entitled to your opinions, but people who know how to evaluate baseball talent disagree with you. Nobody has ever indicated that Gamel’s anything other than brutal at 3B.
Thomas Neal...
San Jose isn’t a hitters’ park. His power wasn’t a Cal league mirage.
his ISOP in 08 in the SAL = .166
his ISOP in 09 = .242 …. he did do much better in his away v. home split, so yeah no argument about san jose’s park.
in all fairness
he was coming off an injury when playing in the sally league. this past year was his first healthy year. he’s always had the tools, I have no doubt he’ll be in Fresno by the end of the year.
he had an injury in 08 or the year before?
and what tools are you referring to? just the hit/power combo?
He did fine in San Jose, too.
He hit for power everywhere in the Cal league.
Writing off performances because they came in the Cal League and ignoring home parks like San Jose and Inland Empire is a personal pet peeve of mine. You see the same thing with the PCL: Tacoma and Nashville are legitimate pitchers’ parks. Just because the league on balance is hitter-friendly, not every player’s stats deserve to be watered down.
I didn't write off his performance
he’s a future LF/1B correct? his bat is his meal ticket, and I’m not into over-ranking guys with only one thing going for them.
I haven't...
heard anyone suggest Neal can’t handle corner-outfield. He’s not a future 1B. His athleticism gets undersold – look at his SB-rate in the AFL this year.
Power is real
Saw him in person…hit a couple homers that were deep over the wall. Also showed power to all fields…high ceiling for this guy.
Good list
But I think Dan Hudson should be much higher. Do you know something about him I don’t?
just that his ceiling isn't what people here are thinking
I don’t think it’s front-of-the-line stuff. and there are experts/reports that correlate with this #3/4 starter…. I think he’s somewhere in between
I only saw one start, but he looks like he has good feel for the game
and he has one of the best pick-off moves to 1B that I’ve ever seen. I wouldn’t be surprised if he moves quickly, and I could see him as a future no. 3/4 starter
I've seen him a few times (admittedly not in person)
And I’m just not at all impressed with his stuff. He didn’t exactly have a great college career and he doesn’t even get ground balls. I think his ceiling is a back of the rotation arm.
I hope he turns into more than that because I like the Braves a lot, but i just don’t see it with Minor.
Overall, I like the list
I do, however, have Pedro Alvarez ranked much higher (easily in my top 10 – probably top 5). I think his bat is that good. Of course, I look at it from a fantasy perspective, so I don’t care about his defense – so I guess it makes sense why I have him so much higher than you.
Tabata?
No Jose Tabata? Not even top 150+? That’s a mistake.
he looks like an under-sized corner OFer with no power to me
he was almost an HM though… probably would be in the 160-175 range
Interesting list
I would put Jennings at least above Stanton due to OBP, defense, and readiness.
I like the Ackley ranking, especially since it’s quite possible he’ll be either a CF or 2B (or excellent defensive LF if there is opening at CF).
I like Mejia’s upside, but 19 may be a bit high even for me due to risk. I can see it, though. Hicks and Moore may also be a bit high due to risk. I’d probably drop all three of those guys about 10 spots.
Westmoreland, on the other hand, I think is a pretty fair assessment of risk vs reward. I may bump him up 5 spots or so, but that’s pretty close. Also like the Myers ranking.
I think Decker, Chacin, and Lawrie should be up a bit, although Decker is the one I could see closest to this ranking. Chacin’s GB + K game gives quite a bit of upside, especially if the loss of control at the end of last season doesn’t continue. Lawrie’s strikeouts in a small sample at AA are a bit concerning, but he was also 19 the whole season.
Trout and Conger are some other guys who I think are placed well.
Mier is a bit low, I think. Although I agree with the caution on his numbers last season, the defense at SS should give him a rather high floor. I think the Parker ranking is overcompensating for his TJ surgery.
Saunders is a bit low as well, although it seems like a lot of people are lowering him after the poor 122 AB call up. Would it influence your opinion at all if you knew 45% of his AB came against lefties? He also struck out 24 times in those 55 AB, with exactly 0 walks. Now, I’m not saying that’s a positive sign, but it’s pretty clear that he really wasn’t eased in at all. Toss in the plus defense in LF or RF and I think he should be bumped up about 20 spots from this ranking.
Chacin
I kept trying to bump him up a few spots but I couldn’t see who to drop into his place. everyone above him has the upside. I see him as a ~ #3 starter, so I think that’s a pretty high ranking for what I view as his ceiling.
I really like Mier a lot, but I mancrushed too hard on my october list, so I tried to stay away from that this time.
Thanks, excellent list
My only major beef is with the Jason Castro ranking, otherwise I’m in close agreement.
31-40
I think 31-40 is better than 21-30 and could rival 11-20. Immense amount of talent (though Freddie Freeman would gladly be switched with #57-61).
Good list altogether.
Chicks Dig The Long Ball.
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