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Rule 5 Draft Analysis

The Rule 5 draft was heavy on the pitching and bullpen spare parts. Of the three hitters, I like both Josh Rodriguez and Brad Emaus, and I think both could end up having good careers as bench assets. I also like Minnesota's Scott Diamond pick.

Star-divide

 

Rule 5 Draft Analysis

Pirates: Josh Rodriguez, SS, from Indians: Turns 26 this month, hit .297/.378/.484 between Double-A and Triple-A this year. Has some pop in his bat and controls the strike zone decently, adequate with the glove, looks like he could be a good utility player but I think he might have a surprise season in him.

Mariners: Jose Flores, RHP, From Indians: 21 year old from Venezuela, posted 2.14 ERA with 51/7 K/BB in 42 innings for Lake County in the Midwest League. Throws hard, throws strikes, improved a lot this year, will have a chance to stick in the bullpen.
 
Diamondbacks : Joe Paterson, LHP, from Giants: 24 year old southpaw, posted 3.48 ERA with 49/24 K/BB in 54 innings for Triple-A Fresno. Doesn't throw hard but has a good breaking ball, classic LOOGY type.

Orioles: Adrian Rosario, RHP, from Brewers: 21 year old from the Dominican Republic, posted 3.50 ERA with 59/18 K/BB in 46 innings between the Pioneer and Midwest League. Projectable and young, and dramatically improved his strikeout rate this year. Probably a long shot to stick due to lack of experience.

Royals: Nathan Adcock, RHP, from Pirates: 22 years old, went 11-7 with a 3.38 ERA and a 113/38 K/BB in 141 innings in the Florida State League. Fastball is average but has a good curve and throws strikes. Might stick in long relief.

Nationals: Elvin Ramirez, RHP, from Mets: 23 years old, posted 4.16 ERA with 72/49 K/BB in 80 innings between St. Lucie and Binghamton. Drafted for his 95-99 MPH fastball, not his command. Might stick in the bullpen.

Cubs: Mason Tobin, RHP, from Angels: Didn't pitch this year; has just 96 innings of pro experience over four years due to persistent health problems. Has a 2.43 ERA with 75/34 K/BB in those innings. 23 years old, throws hard when his body lets him. Sold to Rangers.

Astros: Aneury Rodriguez, RHP, from Rays: 23 years old, posted 3.71 ERA with 100/51 K/BB in 124 innings between Double-A and Triple-A. 89-94 heat, decent curveball and changeup, could be a nice fifth starter.

Brewers: Patrick Egan, RHP, from Orioles: 26 years old, big at 6-8, 225, 3.44 ERA with 42/16 K/BB in 84 innings between Double-A and Triple-A, 2.64 GO/AO. Typical middle reliever who gets grounders, could help pen.

Mets: Bradley Emaus, 2B, from Blue Jays: 24 years old, hit .290/.397/.476 between Double-A and Triple-A. So-so tools, but draws walks and has some power, could stick as a useful bench option with a solid bat.

Padres: George Kontos, RHP, from Yankees: 25 years old, posted 3.60 ERA with 38/15 K/BB in 45 innings at three levels. Throws fairly hard, has a good slider, but track record is erratic and he has had both command and injury issues. Could stick in pen.

Twins: Scott Diamond, LHP, from Braves: 24 years old, 3.46 ERA with a 123/54 K/BB in 159 innings between Double-A and Triple-A. Gets some sink on his average fastball (1.77 GO/AO), has good breaking stuff, and throws strikes. That sounds like the perfect profile for the Twins.

Yankees: Robert Fish, LHP, from Angels : 22 years old, 6.79 ERA with 73/26 K/BB in 58 innings with76 hits allowed between High-A and Double-A. Stats are very ugly, also posted an 10.45 ERA in the Arizona Fall League, but he throws hard for a lefty at 93-95 MPH. Seems unlikely to stick to me.

Rays: Cesar Cabral, LHP, from Red Sox: 21 years old, pitched well in Sally League (0.29 ERA, 35/7 K/BB in 31 innings) but poorly in Carolina League (5.81 ERA, 45/14 K/BB was good but gave up 60 hits in 48 innings). Works in low 90s, can throw strikes, another potential LOOGY.

Phillies: Michael Martinez, IF, from Nationals: 28 years old, hit .272/.312/.408 with 23 steals between Double-A and Triple-A. Good glove, some speed, but undersized at 5-9, 145, and has little upside given his age. I can't say I understand this pick.

Nationals: Brian Broderick, RHP, from Cardinals:  24 years old, 2.77 ERA with 55/14 K/BB in 101 innings in Double-A. Throws strikes with ease and picks up some grounders, velocity is average, 88-93, changes speeds. Strikeout rate is very low.

Astros: Lance Pendleton, RHP, from Yankees: Went 12-5, 3.61 with a 133/57 K/BB in 155 innings between Double-A and Triple-A.  Older guy at age 27, throws strikes with average stuff, could be OK as fifth starter or long reliever.

Mets: Pedro Beato, RHP, from Orioles: 24 years old, former hot prospect had a good season after converting to relief, 2.11 ERA with 50/19 K/BB in 60 innings in Double-A, 16 saves. I can see him sticking in the Mets pen.

Yankees: Daniel Turpen, RHP, from Red Sox: 24 years old, 4.30 ERA with 60/28 K/BB in 69 innings in Double-A. 1.59 GO/AO due to 90-94 MPH sinker. Could be a useful ROOGY option.

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Ruben Amaro makes some head-scratching choices

But it’s the Rule 5, so at least this one is almost completely irrelevant.

On another, more important, note, it seems like the rule changes are basically making the Rule 5 an attempt to find the 12th reliever on your pitching staff. It seems like any bats that could have value will typically be protected, with rare exceptions like Emaus and Rodriguez.

Dom Mazzetti vs. Four Loko: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XWxF6R4FXTI (Warning: Language NSFW)
"ENERGY BEEYUH!" "I can't wait to eat Chipotle latuh." "They removed us from the club." "I fed my fat friend a lot of cake." "I just lightly punched it until it died."

by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 9, 2010 5:01 PM EST reply actions  

well its easier ..

To hide/protect a pitcher. A reliever can be on a team for an entire season without really having an impact. The same can’t be said for a hitter, since most teams just carry 1 utility, 1-2 OF and 1 catcher on their bench, and each usually gets decent ABs.

by ADLC on Dec 9, 2010 5:47 PM EST up reply actions  

Nice couple picks by the Mets...

Beato’s still got moderate upside, and Emaus is competent with a bat.

by SenorGato on Dec 9, 2010 8:38 PM EST reply actions  

This

Or maybe he could sue him for likeness rights.

"And as Edgar rounds the bases the ghosts run with him, the great ones like Mays and McCovey and Cepeda, and the almost forgotten ones like Bolin and LeMaster and Manwaring…" - J. Rant

by Giant Torture on Dec 10, 2010 8:56 AM EST up reply actions  

WOW

I’m really surprised nobody took Brian Friday. Seems like a lot of teams are looking for a SS. He seems like a very competent player in a back up role.

by Nnamdi Asomugha on Dec 9, 2010 11:47 PM EST reply actions  

players who have spent 5 years in the Minors are availble to be drafted by the other 29 teams

now a player can be moved to the 40 man roster right before the draft and organizations can protect a certain number of players from getting drafted.

Players who should be in the Hall of Fame: Pat TIllman, Dwight White, Donnie Shell, L.C. Greenwood, Ray Guy, Steve Tasker, Jack Butler, Greg Llyod, Andy Russel, Cris Carter, Kevin Greene and Jerry Kramer
"Its too bad that NHL is taken because the National Football League has become the National Hypocrite League" Mark Schlereth
Canal Street Chronicles resident Steelers Fan

by WVPiratesfan on Dec 10, 2010 10:35 AM EST up reply actions  

The players that are selected must stay on the selecting teams major league roster all season or be offered back to his original organization at half price.

So 11 teams didn’t find a suitable, unprotected player, whom they thought could stay on their roster all season without tangibly hurting their team.

by mudie on Dec 11, 2010 3:10 AM EST up reply actions  

And that was worth the $50,000 drafting fee.

Minimal and nearly nothing compared to the money we see thrown around in baseball, but tell that to the owner.

Dom Mazzetti vs. Four Loko: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XWxF6R4FXTI (Warning: Language NSFW)
"ENERGY BEEYUH!" "I can't wait to eat Chipotle latuh." "They removed us from the club." "I fed my fat friend a lot of cake." "I just lightly punched it until it died."

by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 11, 2010 7:30 AM EST up reply actions  

Dont forget

the roster spot. Dropping a guy off your 25 and 40 man roster isn’t always possible.

by ADLC on Dec 11, 2010 11:37 AM EST up reply actions  

the other thing

Selecting teams have a lot of flexibility to cut deals with the original team. Trades of players or cash often take place to buy the selected player’s rights outright, allowing the player to be sent to the minors. It’s usually not hard to do since the original team doesn’t tend to care all that much about the selected player – if they did, the guy would have been put on the 40 man in the first place.

by mrkupe on Dec 11, 2010 5:07 PM EST up reply actions  

Badly

the process allows clubs to keep players too long and effectively bury them. It would be better for the game if all players after their 2nd or 3rd year were available to be drafted.

by dbacks watcher on Dec 10, 2010 8:12 AM EST reply actions  

Or

If the 40 man roster was shrunk down to 30 or 35, then teams would have to make much more difficult decisions. Also, since age has so much to do with it, instead of 6 years, I’d like to see them go to something like an age requirement at 24 or 25 and shrinking the 40 man roster to 35.

"And as Edgar rounds the bases the ghosts run with him, the great ones like Mays and McCovey and Cepeda, and the almost forgotten ones like Bolin and LeMaster and Manwaring…" - J. Rant

by Giant Torture on Dec 10, 2010 8:59 AM EST up reply actions  

that'd be a terrible idea

There are plenty of prospects who are drafted or signed as project players who might need 5-6 years in the minors. If you do that, you’ll kill the market for amateurs, which means the talent will start looking in other directions (more specifically, other sports).

by mrkupe on Dec 10, 2010 4:21 PM EST up reply actions   3 recs

Ya

Not just LA prospects who sign very raw, but 90% of hs prospects and half of college guys need 2-3 years minimum.

At the same time, a limit of 24 or 25 years old will decimate the chances that a college senior gets drafted either.

by ADLC on Dec 10, 2010 4:26 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Are you kidding?

Do you actually watch minor league baseball? There are completely legitimate reasons to keep a guy down for 2-3 years. And it’s not like things were significantly different when the time period was shorter,

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Dec 11, 2010 1:49 PM EST up reply actions  

While they're at it

why not use Revenue Sharing money to pay draft signings and have a hard slotting system? That way teams can concentrate on drafting the best available players according to their scouting expertise. Then double all minor league salaries so that players can concentrate on developing their game not trying to scratch ouy a living. Also some sort of international draft needs to be put in place.

by dbacks watcher on Dec 10, 2010 10:18 AM EST reply actions  

+infinity

For Latin. Four years in high school! College credit from the AP Latin test, FTW.

Dom Mazzetti vs. Four Loko: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XWxF6R4FXTI (Warning: Language NSFW)
"ENERGY BEEYUH!" "I can't wait to eat Chipotle latuh." "They removed us from the club." "I fed my fat friend a lot of cake." "I just lightly punched it until it died."

by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 10, 2010 9:23 PM EST up reply actions  

Thank you

http://bullpenbanter.com/

by Jeff Reese on Dec 11, 2010 11:44 AM EST up reply actions  

Lets see...

Never learned Latin, but hey. My French is excellent and that’s a start.

“God, who reigns in heaven, send me from this wicked thing” (So, I suppose, spare me from this wicked thing?) Or do I have the subject/object backwards? That’s always hard in Latin.

So it could be “send this wicked thing from me”.

by Patrick42 on Dec 11, 2010 10:51 AM EST up reply actions  

That's basically what I was going for

“God, who reigns in heaven, send me from this evil.”

“Wicked thing” is synonymous with “evil”. Not 100% sure that I got all of the tenses right. I can read Latin on a basic-to-intermediate level, but composing is much more difficult.

http://bullpenbanter.com/

by Jeff Reese on Dec 11, 2010 11:40 AM EST up reply actions  

I'd translate as follows

“God, who reigns in the heavens, deliver me from this wickedness.”

Looks pretty good to me. I would have used ablative to describe (“ruler of the heavens” flows better) and you needed ablative when using de, but very readable. The last part is open to interpretation, but I generally favored not using the word “thing” in translations for something that could be read as an abstract notion.

#veryrustylatinminor

by mrkupe on Dec 11, 2010 5:21 PM EST up reply actions  

Tell that to the MLBPA

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Dec 11, 2010 1:50 PM EST up reply actions  

Aneury Rodriguez

I saw Rodriguez pitch in Durham this summer; the reports that his velocity are down seem spot-on to me. Unless that comes back, I can’t say I see him sticking even though the numbers obviously support it.

Very surprised no one took Wynn Pelzer. Also surprised that nobody took your typical tools-goof-speedy CF; there’s at least one guy (in the D-backs organization, I think?) fitting that profile and those sorts of picks almost always stick around.

by AndrewTorrez on Dec 10, 2010 11:59 AM EST reply actions  

On Pelzer

Everyone thought he was way too much to give up for Tejada this past season, and now he wasn’t drafted in the Rule V. It seems that MLB teams know something about him that we don’t.

by supermets on Dec 10, 2010 12:09 PM EST up reply actions  

No they didn't

Just looking at San Antonio on the day of the trade, the organization was (with generally good reason) higher on Scribner, Italiano, Gomes, Lara and maybe even Brian Oland than they were on Pelzer as long-term answers in late relief. If you have to squint real hard to see a guy as your system’s eighth or ninth best relief prospect, he’s not too much to give up for ANY big leaguer.
(Just to be clear, I hated the idea of bringing in Tejada for the big league club, but even I thought it was worth it if all it cost was Pelzer.)

by realitypolice on Dec 10, 2010 1:33 PM EST up reply actions  

freudian slip, i assume

but its still funny to see San Antonio in your comment!

by BurgherKing on Dec 10, 2010 2:19 PM EST up reply actions  

oh ok

joke’s on me then!

But given that he referred to “the organization” in the sentence, I def thought he wanted to say San Diego.

by BurgherKing on Dec 10, 2010 2:40 PM EST up reply actions  

personally, I think I like Lara the best out of those guys

Didn’t care for Gomes as much as his numbers would indicate. Scribner is an interesting arm. Not sure if I saw Oland.

by mrkupe on Dec 10, 2010 4:24 PM EST up reply actions  

Errr, Evan Frey?

Not many toolsy players in general in that system, not to mention toolsy center fielders up for drafting. Frey is hardly “toolsy,” he just has speed and… not much else.

Dom Mazzetti vs. Four Loko: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XWxF6R4FXTI (Warning: Language NSFW)
"ENERGY BEEYUH!" "I can't wait to eat Chipotle latuh." "They removed us from the club." "I fed my fat friend a lot of cake." "I just lightly punched it until it died."

by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 10, 2010 9:24 PM EST up reply actions  

seems like the Mets already had Emaus....

his name is Justin Turner. Diamond would have been perfect for the Mets or Beau Jones.

by ThnkGoodnessforHowieRose on Dec 10, 2010 6:03 PM EST reply actions  

It's very interesting to read this.

I see a lot of the pitcher selections as:

“Does this organization understand DIPS?”
“Yes”
“Ouch, no”
And
“Hmm, excellent tools, so maybe they do get DIPS”… Etc.

Very amusing.

by Patrick42 on Dec 11, 2010 10:53 AM EST reply actions  

Kinda surprised Wynn Pelzer didn't get taken

Jason Rice is another guy I liked that I was a bit surprised didn’t go. Any thoughts on them John? I know both have command issues.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Dec 14, 2010 10:47 PM EST reply actions  

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