Crawford to BoSox!?!?!?!?
by drwmsu1 on Dec 8, 2010 11:53 PM EST
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probably
split time for Cameron and Ellsbury. I could see them shop Ellsbury I guess – A lot of clubs likely could have interest, and between Lowrie/Pedroia, they have capable top of the order bats.
that said, my guess is they rotate the two.
I thought Cameron was a FA
I called it - Joe Mauer's first career Home-Run at Target Field !!!
Why Oh Why did the D'Backs select A.J. Pollock over Mike Trout?
I hate Hunter Wendelstedt, you hate Hunter Wendelstedt we all hate hunter w
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Dec 9, 2010 1:40 AM EST up reply actions
Actually, that's a good point
Is Kalish trade bait now?
The Red Sox are just too stacked everywhere now. They have good veterans and prospects/pre-arb young guys at basically every position.
Look for them to be even more active in the trade market.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
Kalish is most likely going to AAA, Theo said he needs some more development time
Cameron is the 4th OFer.
I don’t think we’ll see many trades, actually. They love how theyre set up now. I predict they’ll sign Downs now that they only have to give up a 2nd round pick. Whenever they’ve signed a Type A theyve made it a point to sign multiple Type As… and Theo mentioned they are less reluctant today, having to give up a 2nd.
The only places still under construction are the pen and possibly catcher (they’d love to sign Russell Martin).
Ellsbury is gone
Apparently there is still a lot of bad blood between him and Boston’s management/training staff from last season.
by King Billy Royal on Dec 9, 2010 12:33 AM EST up reply actions
as for the contract
wow, floored. that’s a lot of money for a speed guy. I hope, for boston’s sake, that he ages well.
that's what I'm thinking, too
Little doubt that he’s an extremely productive player at the moment, and he’s good enough of a pure hitter to contribute until the end of his contract. But considering how much of his value is related in some way to his speed, there’s definitely a bit of a gamble as the contract progresses.
Kind of sad that the Tampa Bay building effort, which took years to accomplish, experienced numerous setbacks, and a whole lot of things going right at the same time, basically made the team competitive for a whopping 3 years.
Well said
I am a huge Crawford fan but he has never hit 20 homers and so much of his value is tied to his speed. I really hope that this doesn’t blow up in their face, but this contract could be really bad in 4 years.
by King Billy Royal on Dec 9, 2010 1:07 AM EST up reply actions
Lackey's contract
That contract did blow up but sadly when that happens to the Sox or Yankees they just go out and get a replacement. Most teams would have cringed over the horrible Lugo contract but the Sox just paid him to play elsewhere and brought in Scutaro. I am not blaming teams like the Yankees or Redsox as they smart to use their financial competitive advantage to field the best possible teams.
by King Billy Royal on Dec 9, 2010 5:20 PM EST up reply actions
Lackey's contract "blew up?"
200+ innings of 3.85 FIP is pretty friggin valuable last I checked. 4 Wins good. That’s worth his contract, btw.
Oh, and that’s with completely losing his fastball the first half of the year, btw. Lots of reason to think he performs better in 2011.
4.32 xFIP
By all accounts (physically, statistically), he had a miserable year for an aging pitcher you just locked up to a huge contract. Stop it with the #2 talk.
Do you have confidence that he will be good for the next 4 years?
His peripherals declined (strikeout and walk rates) and he has 4 more years left at an average of $18 million per season. At his age do you really think the Sox aren’t extremely worried?
by King Billy Royal on Dec 9, 2010 11:01 PM EST up reply actions
I doubt they're "extremely worried"
I will agree that it’s something to watch, though. Lackey’s always lived a little too close for comfort with his peripherals for my comfort. It’s interesting that the pitchers most similar to Lackey seem to have fallen off considerably after their age 30-31 seasons, with some of them playing into their later 30s even after suffering decline.
I’m not convinced that Lackey can keep it up, but he deserves some benefit of the doubt given his previous successes. Still, I’m thinking that he’s likely to have a sudden and permanent (as opposed to gradual) decrease in his performance within the next couple of years, which might make him a liability to the Red Sox but could still make him a useful starting pitcher for a few years thereafter.
I actually like Lackey
I am a pretty big fan of his. However, when you combine the down peripherals, decrease in velocity, and $18 million over the next 4 years, I would be worried if I was the Sox.
by King Billy Royal on Dec 9, 2010 11:22 PM EST up reply actions
What decrease in velocity?
91.6 mph avg fastball in 2009.
91.5 mph avg fastball in 2010.
His big problem was his curveball. Previously a plus pitch that had very positive pitch values dropped off to a -7.4 value: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1507&position=P#pitchvalues
The decrease in velocity you mentioned
Oh, and that’s with completely losing his fastball the first half of the year, btw
I figured that what you said was accurate. My bad.
by King Billy Royal on Dec 9, 2010 11:49 PM EST up reply actions
Whoops! I totally meant "curveball." Didn't even notice I did that.
He’s always relied on his curve. He was a guy who pounded the bottom of the zone with above average stuff. Relying largely on throwing his curve for strikes. Completely lost his curve first half and guys started teeing off on his fastball – which was suddenly the only thing he could throw for strikes.
xFIP by month:
4.93 – Mar/Apr
5.54 – May
4.49 – June
4.28 – July
3.39 – Aug
3.71 -Sept/Oct
All his peripherals follow this pattern, too. Take a look at his K/9. In the 5/9 range Mar-July and then >8/9 Aug-Oct. Anecdotally, he was a totally different pitcher once he found his curveball.
http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=1507&position=P&season=2010
I'm not really worried about it. I seriously doubt the Sox are.
Will he be a durable, above average pitcher? Almost certainly. That has a lot of value, even if he ends up overpaid at the end.
Again, his peripherals in the 2nd half returned very close to his normal rate. His first half was a wreck were what has been his best pitch throughtout his career (curve) was completely useless, fooling no one and he couldn’t throw it for strikes. They straightened him out and he had a good enough second half to get his yearly numbers down to a decent level. I’m actually excited about his 2011, to be honest.
Eh...
I’ve actually been persuaded on the whole, reading through your analysis, but doesn’t the idea of a starter in his early 30’s with a ton of mileage losing his stuff for half a season give you pause? And it’s not just a velo thing, either.
Again, I’m with you on the whole (I think Lackey’s a good bet to rebound in 2011), but over the life of the deal?
He will likely be an overpay over the last couple years, yes.
…but he’s unlikely to be a disaster. We knew it was likely a slight overpay going in. We expected more surplus value in ‘10, but its not a big deal. He’s extremely durable. 200+ IP of average xFIP ball ends up coming up pretty positive on the WAR ledger. You’d be surprised how much value is derived from that.
Between the $ value of a win reaching or exceeding $5m this year and regular inflation he should be fine. & its not like his contract will hamstring the team if he’s “only” an average pitcher.
based on stats like WAR, etc.
very very few can earn their contract. That’s because they use dollars per win type of thing. How can we compare free agent dollars against other dollars? They are not even close.
Also, his stuff returned in the second half
So that doesn’t really concern me terribly.
I actually think a lot of it is A) trying to pitch up to his contract; and B) worrying about Fenway’s effects.
I'm so confused
On the one hand, I’m excited about watching Crawford play. On the other hand, it’s a big overpay.
Playing Devil’s advocate, it seems like there are a lot of teams assuming that the price for players is going to really increase over the next year or two.
Also, Pujols is getting 32 million per year.
-1 and only member of the Nick Weglarz fan club!
With the Werth signing in mind
At least you know it could be worse. All indications are that Crawford is more likely to age much more gracefully than Werth over the life of their respective seven-year pacts.
Dom Mazzetti vs. Four Loko: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XWxF6R4FXTI (Warning: Language NSFW)
"ENERGY BEEYUH!" "I can't wait to eat Chipotle latuh." "They removed us from the club." "I fed my fat friend a lot of cake." "I just lightly punched it until it died."
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 9, 2010 5:25 PM EST up reply actions
Agreed
The Werth contract is truly terrible.
by King Billy Royal on Dec 9, 2010 5:27 PM EST up reply actions
Outfield
I don’t think Ellsbury is gone.
The Sox will be starting three lefties (Drew, Ellsbury and Crawford) two of whom have significant injury concerns. Cameron will get plenty of PT rotating between the three OF spots and also getting some time at DH with Ortiz being left-handed.
Good god, though, over 20M for Crawford? Jesus. Talk about building a new core though..
Disappointing
Rather than annually complain about how the top players in the game are overpaid, I think the arm chair saber needs to learn to evaluate compensation properly. It’s tiresome and boring to see the same misunderstandings every single time a top payer is signed.
With that said, I think this is a reflection of a combination of the collapsing dollar, the health of baseball (very good), and the widening disparity in wealth distribution in MLB and the country. It sucks actually. They fail to develop a good OF, and erase the error by tossing $150 mil at it. Meanwhile, the Royals get Jeff Franceour.
80% of the league has evolved into the farm system for the remaining 20%. It’s a microcosm of the widening income disparity in our country.
by MetsFanX on Dec 9, 2010 8:51 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
How is that at all a microcosm for the widening income desparity in the US?
When good day laborers hit free agency, Apple snatches then away from the construction company? Talk about a strained metaphor.
Dom Mazzetti vs. Four Loko: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XWxF6R4FXTI (Warning: Language NSFW)
"ENERGY BEEYUH!" "I can't wait to eat Chipotle latuh." "They removed us from the club." "I fed my fat friend a lot of cake." "I just lightly punched it until it died."
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 9, 2010 5:28 PM EST up reply actions
I don't see how
the Yankees won’t sign Cliff Lee now. Which then means that Texas gets into the Greinke bidding. Should be exciting stuff.
I do
If Cliff Lee doesn’t want to go there.
Dom Mazzetti vs. Four Loko: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XWxF6R4FXTI (Warning: Language NSFW)
"ENERGY BEEYUH!" "I can't wait to eat Chipotle latuh." "They removed us from the club." "I fed my fat friend a lot of cake." "I just lightly punched it until it died."
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 9, 2010 5:28 PM EST up reply actions
by all accounts
cliff lee will go to the highest bidder
we all know who that will be
Who loves orange soda?
by Kenan and Kel on Dec 9, 2010 5:50 PM EST up reply actions
have you been living in a cave?
“80% of the league has evolved into the farm system for the remaining 20%.”
In case you haven’t noticed but this has been going on for awhile.
“With that said, I think this is a reflection of a combination of the collapsing dollar, the health of baseball (very good), and the widening disparity in wealth distribution in MLB and the country.”
How is giving Crawford that salary a reflection of anything more that this is a league where Jason Bay makes $18.125M and Torii Hunter makes $18.5M His contract has as much to do with a collapsing dollar or some disparity in wealth as any other top players. Once again this has been going on for some time now, you should start paying more attention.
http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com
"This has got to hurt"
"The Mets are going to be a powerhouse in 2010."
My point was....
…that it’s getting worse. There are multiple threads showing people don’t realize these things.
The point of your post is to say, “I know”? “I agree”? Except to be a dick about it? Thanks for that. Makes sense coming from someone who uses a sig taken out of context. Thanks for confirming that humans are stupid.
Coming from..
…“pedrophile”, I take that as a compliment.
and your point being?
Pedro was my favourite pitcher. And I’m sure you know what phile means, as in audiophile. While the spelling is very close to a term for a sick pervert of a person the name itself has absolutely no relation to that term. I’m sure you are smart enough to know this but are just being lazy with your insults.
Lesson in tact.
Sometimes the “quirky” word play isn’t worth it. I don’t mean to insult you, even though you are clearly attacking me personally. You’re worthless to me. I stated a fact, and you took it as an insult. Perhaps that should tell you something both about the subject matter (your screen name), and yourself (your insecurity).
Anyways, I’m done with this blog forever. Thanks all.
lesson in tact
calling people stupid and other names when you disagree with their point of view and people will call you out on it.
“I’m done with this blog forever” – I seem to recall this from a few days ago.
Don't leave buddy
I actually find a lot of your insight useful. Don’t worry too much about people liking you and just stick to the great baseball talk.
by King Billy Royal on Dec 11, 2010 2:57 AM EST up reply actions
Do you ever add to a conversation or do you just come here to shit on people?
I don’t care either way, I was just curious.
by King Billy Royal on Dec 11, 2010 2:48 PM EST up reply actions
Worse???
Really??? It seems like business as usual me. Cliff lee is work the same game sabathia did and to think that crawford wasnt going to get mote than Hunter or Bay is fooloish Both are going to sign deals that are market value for what top level talent brings in Your view that this has anything tons with some collapsing dollar is laughable.
"This has got to hurt"
"The Mets are going to be a powerhouse in 2010."
by Da.aron on Dec 10, 2010 3:40 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Lesson
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=afWqKcqntfs
Businesses, players and agents who conduct multi-million dollar transactions on a regular basis invest a great deal of money in smarter people than you, to make sure the value of the dollar is accurately interpreted. A 29 year old corner OF who has OPS-ed around 850 once in his career just got 150 million dollars. With stats like that and these compensation levels, I don’t care how good UZR thinks he is. I’d rather sign Dunn and stick a replacement level gazelle in LF. Fortunately (or unfortunately for the integrity of the game) the Sox can afford to do this.
There’s zero doubt that baseball teams and agents price inflation projections into multi-million dollar contracts. For me, seeing a guy like Crawford pull $150 mil at 29 yers old is further cofirmation. He’s one of my favorite players in the game, and I know he’s awesome. I don’t think he’s a $150 mil guy as recently as 5 years ago.
You are failing to tke into account even a fraction of the variables that go into understanding the point I am trying to make. The fact that you think it’s worth posting your “thoughts” (if you can call those thoughts) is what is laughable.
Additionally. I believe Crawford more of an overpay...
…than Bay and Hunter. Hence the “widening”….
Id feel
Much better about paying the superior player Crawford his money than paying out the rest of Hunter or Bays contracts and getting any sort of value out of them. Atleast Boston is going to get a couple peak years out of th deal they made
"This has got to hurt"
"The Mets are going to be a powerhouse in 2010."
by Da.aron on Dec 10, 2010 3:45 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Pretty shocking
Can’t complain too much when you’re only throwing money at a player, but it’s quite a bit of money.
Bring on Downs I guess…
Who loves orange soda?
Rays get #24 and #36 pick from the signing
Remember when everybody said the only reasons the Rays were good was because they had fantastic draft picks, and they wouldn’t be able to continue once they stopped having them? Well, now they’re going to have a ton of good picks, if no top-5 ones. The concept of this strategy works – now, like all things, it comes down to implementation
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
Irony is the Sox will still draft higher.
Got the Tigers’ 1st (the highest possible unprotected comp) for VMart. Also will get a 1st or a 2nd (depending on who he signs with) for Beltre. And a 1st round comp for each. And a 2nd for Felipe Lopez.
Crawford's Worth?
Definitely not worth 142 mil for 7 years. That kind of money should only be given to a great player. Crawford is very good, but not great.
He's great.
One of the very best in baseball in 2010.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/boston-signs-carl-crawford/
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