Fantasy Baseball: Top First Base Prospects For 2011
by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 7, 2010 9:00 AM EST
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In the second of the series of top prospects by position, here is an early look at the Top Fantasy First Base prospects for 2011. As I mentioned in the Top Catching prospects article, this list is my take on which first base prospects will get the most playing time in 2011, and possibly help your fantasy teams.
Before I get started, a guy like Eric Hosmer, who is probably the #1 first base prospect in baseball, won't be ranked highly in this list as he probably won't see any time in the big leagues in 2011.
With that said, here is my take on the Top First Base prospects for fantasy purposes for 2011:
1. Freddie Freeman, ATL-barring signing or trading for a first baseman this offseason, which is unlikely unless his wrist injury is more serious than we know at this point, Freeman should be the Braves starting first baseman in 2011. Freeman, as a 20 year old, hit .319-.378-.521 with 18 HRs, 87 RBIs, 73 runs scored and 6 SBs at AAA Gwinnett in 2010. In his 4 minor league seasons, Freeman has hit 50 HRs in roughly 1,600 at bats, or about 1 every 32 at bats. Some question Freeman's power ceiling, and i think it is justified. Freeman just turned 21 in September, so he is very young for the majors, and I am not sure if he is draftable in any league, unless it is a keeper league.
2. Brandon Belt, SFG-Belt had a breakout season in 2010, hitting .352-.450-.620 with 23 HRs, 112 RBIs and 22 SBs at three levels in 2010 (A+, AA, and AAA). He sported an excellent 99-93 K/BB rate, and had a 15-13 K/BB at AAA in 48 ABs. With the Giants re-signing Pat Burrell, Cody Ross, and Aubrey Huff, it appears Belt will get more seasoning at AAA in 2011, but he could get a call in June should anyone get injured or go into a prolonged slump. Belt is definitely draftable in keeper leagues, but he is undraftable in re-draft leagues.
3. Brandon Allen, ARI-Allen, at this point, appears to have first dibs on the Diamondbacks first base job, with Adam Laroche electing free agency this offseason. Allen hit .261-.405-.528 with 25 HRs, 86 RBIs, 14 SBs and an excellent 95-83 K/BB rate. His 2010 K/BB rate is a far cry from the 2006-2008 seasons where he accumulated a 374-121 K/BB rate. He has played some LF in the minors and majors, so he offers manager Kirk Gibson some options to keep his bat in the lineup should they sign a first baseman like Derrek Lee this offseason.
4. Chris Carter, OAK-Carter made his major league debut in 2010 with the A's, hitting just .186-.256-.329 with 3 HRs, 7 RBIs and a 21-7 K/BB rate in 70 ABs. In AAA, Carter hit .258-.365-.529 with 31 HRs, 94 RBIs, and a 138-73 K/BB rate in 465 at bats. Carter's strikeout rates (112-156-133-138) the last 4 years may hold him back, but he does have nice power, which Oakland is lacking at the moment. Carter is listed as an outfielder on the A's 40-man roster, but has played the majority of his games at 1B the last few season. It's possible he gets some playing time in the outfield in 2011 withDaric Barton at first base.
5. Eric Hosmer, KC-I didn't originally have Hosmer ranked here, as I had him in the keeper league list below. But, I was watching MLB TV last night, and saw an interview with Royals GM Dayton Moore (cue the boos), and he told Peter Gammons that he would like to see Hosmer get a full season in AAA in 2011. I was a bit surprised with that, as Hosmer had about 200 ABs at AA in 2010. Then again, Hosmer is the best first base prospect in baseball, and he had a breakout season at two levels last season. He hit a combined .338-.406-.571 with 20 HRs, 86 RBIs, 14 SBs, and an excellent 66-59 K/BB rate. He hit very well in AA Northwest Arkansas, hitting .313-.365-.615 with 13 HRs, 35 RBIs and 3 SBs in 195 ABs. Dayton Moore has some shuffling to do once he decides Hosmer is ready to play 1B full time in Kansas City. If Hosmer played a full season at AA in 2010, I probably would have him ranked #1 or #2 on this list.
6. Yonder Alonso, CIN-Alonso hit .290-.362-.458 with 15 HRs, 69 RBIs and 13 SBs at AA and AAA in 2010. Alonso is blocked in Cincinnatti with MVP Joey Votto at first base, so he will probably return to AAA in 2011, or there is a slight chance he is dealt to a team where he has more opportunity to play at the major league level (Pirates make sense). He is one year removed from the hamate bone injury, and many are skeptical of his power potential, for good reason. Alonso has hit just 24 HRs in 800+ minor league at bats.
7. Anthony Rizzo, SD-Rizzo was one the main pieces in the deal that sent Adrian Gonzalez to theRed Sox on Sunday. Rizzo hit .260-.334-.480 with 25 HRs, 100 RBIs, 10 SBs, and 132-61 K/BB rate at High A and AA in 2010. Rizzo will probably start the season at AAA Portland, and could be a September callup.
8. Jerry Sands, LAD-Sands started the 2010 season with Low A Great Lakes, but earned a promotion to AA Chattanooga by dominating Low A pitching, hitting .333-.432-.646 with 18 HRs, 46 RBIs, 14 SBs, with a 61-40 K/BB rate. At AA Chattanooga, Sands continued to hit well, hitting .270-.36-.529 with 17 HRs, 47 RBIs, 4 SBs, and a 62-33 K/BB rate. He played in the Arizona Fall League where he hit .299-.410-.494 with 3 HRS and a 19-16 K/BB rate. Fangraphs Bryan Smith scouted him in the AFL and felt he could be a .300 hitter in the big leagues. With James Loney at first base, Sands is blocked.....for now. But the Dodgers infield is lacking a power hitter and Sands could be a fit should he continue to hit for power and put up a solid triple slash line at AAA Albequerque.
9. Mark Trumbo, LAA-Trumbo is blocked at first base in Los Angeles by Kendry Morales, but could get a look as he has plenty of power. Trumbo hit .301-.368-.577 with 36 HRs, 122 RBIs and a 126-58 K/BB rate in 2010 at AAA Salt Lake City. Some prospect experts feel he could be a legitimate 25 HR bat in the big leagues should he get a full time job, but time is becoming precious for the soon-to-be 25 year old.
Others-Leslie Anderson, Lars Anderson, Chris Marrero, Brandon Snyder
Keeper Leagues
Keeper league owners will have a different strategy than re-draft league owners, as they are drafting players who have future value, but may be more than a year away from the big leagues. Here is a look at the first base prospects with the most keeper league value in 2011, but not listed in the list above:
1. Jonathan Singelton, PHI
2. Paul Goldschmidt, ARI
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Brandon Allen...
…and Kila Kaaihue will each outperform both Freeman and Belt. I know that’s not the vote. Just FYI.
Kila isn't a prospect anymore so he doesn't qualify for this discussion
As for Allen I suppose its possible, but I don’t think you’re taking context into account here. Allen’s BB rate has spiked since going to the hitter friendly PCL. Once you put him in the majors, a regression towards his previous levels seems likely. His power numbers also aren’t nearly as impressive once you consider the league and home park (Reno is XBH haven for LHH). He does have a huge home park advantage though, so that could swing things his way.
It's extremely unlikely...
…that you consider more factors than I do.
Adjusted for park, fully normalized performance, I expect Allen to outperform both Belt and Freeman. Odds are in my favor. Allen has a taste vs major league pitching, and more power than both of them. He might not be as polished as some other prospects, but few match Allen’s upside in power. He’s a legit potential 30-45 HR guy. Ridiculously underrated prospect.
Please do enlighten me then on the factors you're taking into account
Allen is a fine prospect, but his performance has clearly benefited from playing in a hitter friendly park in a hitter friendly league. How much he benefited is open to debate as is his HR potential, but you’re announcing something as if its an obvious fact without giving your reasoning.
Ha!
Just what I was thinking. I don’t need to go clip-clopping across a bridge to know a troll when I see one. lol
by blackoutyears on Dec 7, 2010 12:51 PM EST up reply actions
As for Allen
I’ve liked him as much as anyone — well, clearly not anyone — the last three years but his contact issues persist and scouts insist that he has holes in his swing that are going to be tough to close and I saw that a little in 2009 AFL and 2010 big league looks. I think he could pop some homers, and the gains in walk rate seem valid as he’s been historically solid, but that .267 avg might be close to a ceiling (check out his MLB BABIP) and his dramatic spike in whiff rate in the bigs can’t be discounted. Easy guy to like, hard guy to put too, too much faith in.
by blackoutyears on Dec 7, 2010 1:00 PM EST up reply actions
That's fair.
We’re all speculating. I like what I see, and I expect a solid year. (.265/.338/.485, 27 HRs) I think that will be enough to be tops amongst rookie 1Bs.
That's not completely outlandish or anything
And as I mentioned earlier, playing half his games in the desert could certainly lead to an impressive HR total for Allen.
And as I mentioned...
…evenif you normalize their performance, I still expect him to outperform the kids.
Maybe
At same time, looking at it from a fantasy perspective (since that’s what the post is about), I could see Allen posting a terrible average and a merely decent HR total that makes him completely unplayable. On the other hand, I could see Freeman posting a good average (~.290) with decent power (12-15 HR) and solid RBI numbers (good chance of hitting 6th against RHP in a very good lineup). I think a case could be made for either guy.
I could see Allen posting a terrible average and a merely decent HR total
That’s my fear as well. If he gets off to a rocky start, how long will Gibby stick with him before turning to Miranda? A triple slash of .265/.338/.485, 27 HRs isn’t unreasonable at all, but he does have to log a full season to pull it off, and I agree with nixa that the avg is the most volatile element in that projection.
by blackoutyears on Dec 7, 2010 2:19 PM EST up reply actions
So your point is.....
…..that’s it’s possible that my projection is wrong? Thanks for that.
Notice there was at least some reasoning there
You’ve said that odds are in your favor for Allen outperforming both Belt and Freeman and I’m not sure any of us understand how you can be so certain.
I like where your heart is.
However, “I could see….blah blah blah…” does not qualify as “reasoning” where I come from, so I didn’t get the point of the post. Now I see that was your form of rationale. I get it now.
Except the blah blah blah part had some reasoning
His average is the most volatile thing to project and if he doesn’t post a good one, he very well could lose his starting spot.
All you’ve said is that Allen is better without any real reasoning. I don’t really care either way, but don’t get on some else for posting an unsubstantiated response to your original unsubstantiated opinion.
it’s possible that my projection is wrong?
How unlike you to ignore the part where I said it “wasn’’t unreasonable” and skip right to the part that you can choose to be offended by.
by blackoutyears on Dec 7, 2010 5:27 PM EST up reply actions
I agree with your point about a low avg/decent HR year
Having seen Allen play almost a full season in Reno, he definitely has power. Dude can crush a fastball, but anything offspeed has him on his front foot and popping out or striking out. He does need some time to adjust to his approach to offspeed pitches. I have sat through entire games where the opposition has thrown him nothing but curves and change ups, and it’s not pretty.
I'm a Giants Fan, but I'll always be rooting for Matt Downs
Where is Dan Burkhart going to play ?
"Dude can crush a fastball"
Can’t remember who was pitching, but he hit one to dead CF in the AFL in 2009 that was a no doubter. The other ABs? Not so much. The power is real, but I do find it interesting that AZ traded for a very similar player in Miranda. Back-up plan? Sending a signal? Straight up competition?
by blackoutyears on Dec 7, 2010 10:35 PM EST up reply actions
"Sending a signal? "
Likely correct. The power is real. but pitchers won’t make that mistake more than once. Allen was in the White Sox system for five years, prior to the trade to AZ. I don’t think the White Sox give up on him if there aren’t some issues, especially for a pitcher like Tony Pena. Maybe it’s work ethic, something in his swing, pitch recognition or approach ? I hope he can figure it out.
I'm a Giants Fan, but I'll always be rooting for Matt Downs
Where is Dan Burkhart going to play ?
Also
Towers is sending a different type of signal regarding his antipathy for strikeouts by trading Reynolds and dangling Upton. If Allen stays north of 30% with the whiff rate he won’t last long. I seem to recall Nick Piecoro hinting that AZ didn’t seem to consider Allen a big part of their long term plans. He’s one of those guys who gets statheads agitated but seems to be missing something for baseball people and his org, sort of like Daryle Ward after his 98/99 seasons with the Zephyrs…
by blackoutyears on Dec 8, 2010 12:10 PM EST up reply actions
Good Comp
of Daryle Ward. I always liked his potential, but he could never put it all together. In his best year of a reasonable sample size (2007 Cubs) he looked like he might break out, but he seems to have regressed ever since.
I'm a Giants Fan, but I'll always be rooting for Matt Downs
Where is Dan Burkhart going to play ?
I always pulled for him
Some guys are just destined to never break through, whether due to injuries, lack of consistent PT, what have you. It’s too bad in Ward’s case because he had what looked like a compelling power/patience package. When he wasn’t good enough to get a regular gig with the Pirates the writing was on the wall for me. Here’s hoping Allen doesn’t suffer the same fate.
by blackoutyears on Dec 8, 2010 6:01 PM EST up reply actions
How does Alonso to Pirates make sense?
Who could the Pirates actually offer the Reds for Alonso? If the Pirates think Alvarez ends up at 1B, why do they do this deal? Just curious.
Alonso
they need a 1bman now, and they seem to be the team that takes on other team’s prospects who are blocked right now. Alvarez could stay at 3b for a few more years.
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 7, 2010 12:19 PM EST up reply actions
agreed
maybe the Pirates aren;t the right match, but they were the first team that came to me when writing this. Maybe Arizona? The Reds could put together a competitive package for Upton…..more quantity over quality….if they wanted.
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 7, 2010 1:14 PM EST up reply actions
"The Reds could put together a competitive package for Upton"
or, in the same vein, Greinke. I’m not sure Alonso is highly regarded enough at the moment to be the anchor in a deal for either though. That would likely be one of Volquez and Cueto.
by blackoutyears on Dec 7, 2010 2:23 PM EST up reply actions
true
but we will see how that works out in 2011. I am sure Phillies fans hope it works out.
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 7, 2010 12:20 PM EST up reply actions
I know the Reds have experimented with Alonso in LF as well (is there a Cincy prospect they haven’t played some in LF? Which is weird since it’s not like Cincy’s outfield isn’t already crowded). Obviously for Yonder this is more pressing as he could play respectably in MLB this spring, while Singleton is, at least 2-3 years away.
gotta say
I must have changed the rankings 5-6 times before last night….when I added Hosmer. Lots of question marks with the 1bman after the first 2-3.
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 7, 2010 12:21 PM EST up reply actions
Mitch Moreland
I know he has a few too many at bats to qualify for this lists, but I was wondering where he would slot in. I suppose I could ask that same question about Smoak.
Smoak
would be #1 for me…..gotta take a closer look at Moreland.
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 7, 2010 12:23 PM EST up reply actions
Brandon Allen
If we gave Geraldo Parra 884 ABs over the past two season I don’t see why we can’t give Allen 400-500 this year.
We really need a power bat and its obviosu we won’t spend any money for one. Since they are tearing this whole thing down and starting from scratch we have nothing to lose by finally giving the kid his chance
He's starting...
….for 2011. Whether it be OF or 1B, he’s going to get his at bats. I think he’s the reason they shopped Upton at all. I think Zona considers him a future middle of the order guy. Upton/Allen……we are going to see some ferocious HRs in Zona in 2011.
Slightly OT
Does Logan Morrison ever see 1B again in his future or is he now officially a COF?
The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.
Morrison
I think he ends up at 1b, but with the Marlins thinking Coghlan can play CF, anything is possible, I guess.
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 7, 2010 12:22 PM EST up reply actions
FYI on Belt
Sabean has been saying this off-season that if/when Belt forces his way into the majors, the Giants will make the move. He has also recently made the point when Burrell was signed that performance will dictate who plays, not their salary or prior experience, which I took as a reference to his earlier statement on Belt as well as to Burrell.
As nicely as Burrell and Ross did for Giants in 2010, both still did pretty badly prior to the Giants acquiring them. While the good performances they had with the Giants were like what they did previously when good, there is some risk that the bad performance was a precursor to a career decline. Huff for that matter too, though most people who point this out usually neglect to point out that 2010 is more reminscient of his prior performances than 2009, particularly when you factor in that he was unhappy in Baltimore and that his bad 2009 is mostly related to his poor play in Detroit after the trade. So there is some possibility that Belt could start 2011 in the majors if any of these are true.
But yeah, the most likely thing is that Belt comes up sometime mid-season, perhaps after someone (and Travis Ishikawa appears the most on the bubble with regards to Belt coming up) is traded/released.
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by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Dec 7, 2010 12:12 PM EST reply actions
I really like this type of content
in terms of any “rankings” that get done, I really like looking at each position relative to others at the position.
I find this much more interesting than looking at the prospects from within the same organization.
This is a great post.
Thanks.
thanks
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 7, 2010 12:59 PM EST up reply actions
IN 2010
Freeman plays more, and therefore he’ll be the better fantasy option. Long term… I haven’t made up my mind yet. I’ve been waffling. I would also like to see the original list of players be used in the Keeper list, if possible.
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agreed
it’d be nice to see an overall view rather than trying to plug the “Keeper list” players in among the rest
maybe I will do a separate post on this...
and going forward include them in the rankings…..good idea.
Also, my apologies for not using page break again…..argh
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 7, 2010 2:30 PM EST up reply actions
Booing Dayton Moore?
That joke is sooooo 2009. Don’t know if I’d be booing a guy that has overseen the best farm system in baseball. Even Dr. Rany is giving him props. This coming from an envious mets fan because our system pretty much sucks…
by thehitonecafe on Dec 7, 2010 3:45 PM EST via mobile reply actions
sure
but his trades and FA signings haven’t been great IIRC
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 7, 2010 4:06 PM EST up reply actions
Anthony Rizzo
Just a nitpick—the Portland Beavers are no longer in existence. The Padres’ AAA club will be located in Tuscon in 2011, with a name TBD.
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by Zach (maestro876) on Dec 7, 2010 4:40 PM EST reply actions
thanks..
I think I read that…..was going off 2010 stats….was wondering why padres site didn;t list a AAA affiliate….thanks
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Trumbo
does he have any significant trade value as a possible centerpiece prospect?
go long with extenze...i do
bummer
figured this but just wanted someone to confirm this to me
go long with extenze...i do
by angelsownredsux on Dec 7, 2010 7:57 PM EST up reply actions
I heard LAD may look to move Loney at meetings
so we may see Sands early
Any task BIG or small, Do it well or not at all
as a Dodgers fan
would love to see them deal Loney, but deal should be for a power hitting 1bman
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 7, 2010 8:14 PM EST up reply actions
Similar to what Ray said
If they move Loney, it wont be with Sands coming up to start the year. They will want him to get more AA/AAA seasoning. Best case scenario is a power hitting 1B for one year. However, if someone is signed for multiple years(or traded for), Sands can very easily slip into LF until the contract is up, and then they can decide from there.
Unfortunately, it seems the excess spending on Uribe and Barajas means another season of Loney…
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Dec 7, 2010 9:14 PM EST up reply actions
let's hope not
if they are in the hunt by July 31st I see LAD seeking to upgrade at 1b and 3b, if not this offseason
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 7, 2010 9:31 PM EST up reply actions
I hope for an upgrade
believe me.
But I think Colletti’s comments combined with other rumors show that while some teams want Loney they are asking for a lot in return. And part of that asking price is the fact they know how much it would cost to replace him in FA(for example, Konerko wants 15M a season…)
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Dec 7, 2010 9:38 PM EST up reply actions
good point
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 8, 2010 12:14 AM EST up reply actions
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