Mark Reynolds to Orioles
by ScottAZ on Dec 6, 2010 12:57 PM EST
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haven't seen this one posted on here yet, but this is what i'm hearing in the media out here.
Reynolds for David Hernandez and Kam Mickolio. Seems we sold very low on Reynolds. Reynolds isn't going to bat cleanup for you, but having a guy that averages 35 HR a year in the 6 hole is nice, even if he hits 230-240. His defense has also improved over the past 3-4 years as well.
As frustrated with the record K's as I was, I'm dissapointed to see him go and was hoping we'd keep him and bat him lower in the order and aquire *real* hitter to bat 4th
Not familiar with hernandez, what can anyone tell me about him and what to expect.
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Well
I don’t like Reynolds all that much…but still feel they are really settling and selling while his value is low.
Can't be good.
And for where they are, there was no reason to bring in Reynolds. They aren’t going to challenge for anything anytime soon, so why not run Bell out there for a year or three and see what happens. I don’t think he was destined for anything great, but solid and surely not much of a downgrade from someone who does his damnedest to strike out more than once a game.
yea but Josh Bell
was reallllllllllly bad last year in the majors. Even rebuilding you can’t keep running someone out there that had a .214/.224/.302 with 53 K’s and 2! walks in 162 at bats. As an Os fan i’m not pumped about the move but not upset either. Bought low on a corner infielder with a chance to hit 35-40 Homeruns with an affordable contract for 2 years for 2 relievers one of who has done next to nothing. I just hope this isn’t the move that Macphail points to as upgrading the offense and does nothing the rest of the offseason but I am afraid that will be the case.
So...
your answer to that is to trade minor leaguers and pay a guy significantly more to bat .198/.321/.433 with over 200 K’s in 499 AB’s? Reynolds strikes out at about a %10 greater clip. And I can’t believe I have to say this on a minor league website, but those were Bell’s first 162 AB’s in the majors – what’s Reynold’s excuse? 162 AB’s is a terribly small sample size to begin with. This was a stupid move by Baltimore.
well as I said I am not pumped about the move, but they bought low and 2 years ago Reynolds numbers were
.260/.349/.543 with 44 homeruns in his age 25 season. Reynolds is 26 and Bell is going to be 24. At 23 Reynolds had an .850 OPS in the Bigs, Bell didn’t even have that in triple A this year and was behind only Brandon Wood as the worst third baseman in baseball this year. O’s fans can’t keep being afriad to block these below average to average prospects becuase we’d be stuck in neutral. 2 years ago everyone was worried about blocking Brandon Snyder if we signed a first baseman. Maybe Reynolds isn’t the guy and in a year or two we give Bell the job but maybe Reynolds bounces back and hits 40 hr’s with a .900 OPS, I don’t see how its a dumb move.
Because
they aren’t going to compete. Reynolds is going to cost 13 mil over the next 2 seasons. Bell will be a fraction of that. Not the end of the owrld, but I don’t see the point in it.
in a vacuum that makes sense, but Reynolds is currently better than Bell
and if the Orioles don’t attempt to get better and upgrade their onfield talent the remaining fanbase (what’s left) will give up on this franchise, and believe me this is the most restless I have ever seen this fanbase over the last 13 plus years of losing, which would lead to continued decline in attendance and ratings and could lose them much more than the 13 million for Reynolds.
+1
This isn’t a fantasy league. There are benefits to winning even if you’re a bad team, and Reynolds should add surplus value to the team based on how little he cost.
BABIP for Reynolds was down last year
If it goes up, and that’s an if with his LD-Rate also down, he could be the 4-WAR guy he was in ’09.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qU_9zTD9B98&feature=related
Apparently there's an epilepsy warning on this video. But it's so incredibly cool.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 6, 2010 6:15 PM EST up reply actions
I doubt it means much for Bell long term.
Last year, Bell showed that he needs some more time in the minors. He’ll start the year in AAA and hopefully get himself figured out. Reynolds could always be moved over to 1B if needed.
"Yeah, well, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man." ~ The Dude
Yeah, this seems like a poor return
You’re not going to get a ton for him after his poor 2010 season, but this seems like dumping salary on the first team to inquire.
http://bullpenbanter.com
It could be worse
You could have landed Billy Rowell
by gpellet41 on Dec 6, 2010 1:23 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
good deal for D Backs
I’d take Hernandez straight up for Reynolds.
Eh
I sort of see why they made the move, but I like this gamble for the O’s. Hernandez might be a better arm than given credit for – I could see him potentially setup for a club, and perhaps one day, be utilized as a closer. That said, there’s also a high chance that he’s just a middle reliever, and to give up two middle relievers (and Mickolio might not be a consistent major league pen arm) for Reynolds, I like this for the O’s.
Hernandez should help Arizona’s pen, though. A bit surprised he was their main focus from the O’s, by most accounts.
Agree
I like buying low on Reynolds here, I don’t think he’s getting much worse than last year and the .259 BABIP obviously screams of a flukishly bad season. Also the O’s have some decent depth in pitching so its not like they gave up much in terms of future contribution.
There are also concerns
That Mark’s LD-Rate dipped heavily, so who knows if the BABIP will actually regress up. I’m not a fan of the move from an AZ perspective, though the Mora signing helps a bit (and that is not total sarcasm, FWIW).
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qU_9zTD9B98&feature=related
Apparently there's an epilepsy warning on this video. But it's so incredibly cool.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 6, 2010 6:17 PM EST up reply actions
hernandez
was a starter up until early in this past season when he got moved to the bullpen (many scouts always saw him as a reliever) power arm with a live fastball with late life. Was cranking it up to 97 when he moved to the bullpen and flourished. Slider is up and down and when it is on he can be really good, never really developed the changeup. Think he can be a good 8th inning guy with a chance to close long term if he sharpens the command a bit. Mickolio is a 6’9 righty with a big fastball who is inconsistent and has failed to produce in a brief stints in the majors and struggled at AAA this year.
Reynolds won me lunch
last week. Question. Was Reynolds average last year higher than his K’s? Answer: Of course not .198 to 211. But it made me wonder if it had ever been done before and I don’t have the drive to seek out the answer. Because after all, it’s Mark Reynolds
Not the first time
In 2003, Al Leiter struck out 28 times and batted .019.
But, yeah, it’s rare.
sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew
by alexwithclass on Dec 6, 2010 3:30 PM EST up reply actions
I would have lost money
I thought Rob Deer had pulled off that feat, but the closest he came was a .179 average and 175 K.
by realitypolice on Dec 6, 2010 3:40 PM EST up reply actions
Reynolds is the only position player
The rest are pitchers. The previous strikeout high for a season like that was Wilbur Wood in 1971, who struck out 57 times in 124 PA and batted .052.
Here’s a list of everyone who had a higher number of strikeouts than batting average, minimum 20 at-bats: http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/YY0Yr
sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew
by alexwithclass on Dec 6, 2010 5:31 PM EST up reply actions
Correction
ALMOST all the rest are pitchers. David Ortiz struck out 12 times in 1999 in a 20-AB cup of coffee. Obviously, Reynolds is the only position player to accomplish the feat in a full season.
sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew
by alexwithclass on Dec 6, 2010 5:34 PM EST up reply actions
Tillman?
I read they prefered Hernandez to Tillman, this seems flawed to me. Yes Tillman has struggled as a 22 year old in the bigs, but he has to have more value to any team being a potential starter.
I really didn’t understand trading reynolds for so little. 30hrs is 30hrs regardless. And that has more value then 2 middle rps
I wonder if they didn't make this move with the intent
to convert Hernandez back to a starter, figuring getting out of the AL east and into the NL might make him a #4 starter type.
Not about return
it’s about saving 5 mil this year and 7.5 next. If Hernandez does anyhting, it’s just a bonus.
of course it's about the return...
you’re acting as if Reynolds has no value at all. Any improvement over last year in average and he’s a viable player. There’s a decent likelihood that he has a better year based on BABIP alone as 2010 it was .257 and he is at .323 for his career. They should have gotten more for him.
by Looney4baseball on Dec 6, 2010 10:38 PM EST up reply actions
It's worth noting
That Arizona is fairly deep at third base in the minors. Nothing at Triple-A, but there’s Ryan Wheeler, Matt Davidson, and Bobby Borchering in the lower levels. I imagine that the team expects one of them to take control of the job by 2013, which meant that AZ wasn’t going to exercise Reynolds’ option for 2013.
Also, if Mark doesn’t regress up in 2011, his value next year would have been nearly nothing. With his K-Rate getting worse each year and his LD-Rate taking a huge hit in 2010, it wasn’t a guarantee that he was going to see improvement in 2011.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qU_9zTD9B98&feature=related
Apparently there's an epilepsy warning on this video. But it's so incredibly cool.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 6, 2010 6:20 PM EST reply actions
Well, it appears that I've made up a term. Woops.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qU_9zTD9B98&feature=related
Apparently there's an epilepsy warning on this video. But it's so incredibly cool.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 6, 2010 10:13 PM EST up reply actions
davidson and borchering
Might be able to find a 3B between those two if you can find a way to play both there at the same time. I mean, literally at the same time.
The kids are in A-ball
A lot can happen in a couple of years. Heck, a lot can happen in one year. Like Mark Reynolds going from hitting 44 homers as a franchise cornerstone to being traded.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qU_9zTD9B98&feature=related
Apparently there's an epilepsy warning on this video. But it's so incredibly cool.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 6, 2010 10:12 PM EST up reply actions
Home/Road Splits?
First Garrett Atkins and now Mark Reynolds. Evidently, nobody in Baltimore has google, otherwise they would realize that 3Bs who post decent numbers in launchpad parks and OPS in the mid 600s on the road are not major league caliber baseball players.
Mark Reynolds is terrible. Of course, this means that Baltimore will spend another 5-10 million on him, before he is forced to roam the league for righty pinch hitter at bats, after which he will either go to Japan, play in an independent league or start a bbq chain.
The nail in his coffin will be a post on MLB trade rumors about staging a comeback. (obviously his life still owns mine)
Mark Reynolds =/= Garret Atkins
It’s not like Camden isn’t a launching pad itself.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qU_9zTD9B98&feature=related
Apparently there's an epilepsy warning on this video. But it's so incredibly cool.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 7, 2010 9:03 AM EST up reply actions
Camden isn't a launching pad.
Not the launching pad that Arizona is anyway.
The comparison between Reynolds and Atkins is based on their extreme home/raod splits, generated in extremely hitter friendly environments. They were both terrible at baseball on the road.
This really isn’t worth discussing. Reynolds is going to be absolutely terrible in Baltimore. The best they can hope for is one fluke year, before AL pitchers figure him out and put him to bed in 2012.
Reynolds won’t get over 250 at bats in 2013, and won’t be in the major leagues by 2014.
Most players have a home/road split
And Mark doesn’t have Chase Field power. He has anywhere power. HitTracker measures average home run distance for a reason – it’s not just a cool little gimmick. Mark will have plenty of power in Baltimore, and saying that he won’t be in the majors by 2014 is absolutely absurd.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qU_9zTD9B98&feature=related
Apparently there's an epilepsy warning on this video. But it's so incredibly cool.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 7, 2010 11:04 AM EST up reply actions
So you think your explanation....
….is more telling than his 11 road HRs and mid 600s OPS?
Perhaps the league’s biggest hacker, has perhaps the biggest home/road splits in the game, heavily favoring a hitter friendly environment, and you think your blank response explains that away? Power doesn’t mean anything if you can’t hit the ball. The ball breaks less and travels farther in the desert.
Fortunately for the Rockies and now the Dbacks, people like you are running the Orioles.
Reynolds does not have notable home/splits on his power #s
His career road ISO is .226, compared to .257 at home. This difference is then mitigated by considering that generally most players preform better at home. Even a .31 variance without any context is not really that big of a drop-off. When considering he is switching to very homer friendly Camden, there is very little to worry about. In fact, statcorner has RHB HR factor for Camden of 126 versus 102 for Chase. This difference is made up in doubles, which is 89 for the former, the latter a nice 117.
Overall, Reynolds has a wRC+ of 104 away versus a value of 117 at home. His BABIP are the same and his ISO has already been looked at. The other main difference is in discipline, which sees a 3 % increase in Ks while taking a 1 % hit in walks on the road. However, the reduced K rate partially makes some sense also due to home park advantage. This reduction at home can further be explained by park factors in that statcorner has Chase Field has a strikeout factor of 92 for righties. The 1 % difference in walks is not such a drastic loss that it needs to be explained.
There is no notable reason, just because of the park, to believe Reynolds will hit significantly worse in Baltimore than Arizona. If anything, the thing that will kill Reynolds is the switch to much more difficult AL West. He can hardly afford to K any more than he does.
by tdot mariner fan on Dec 7, 2010 2:09 PM EST up reply actions
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