Cage Match: CHC RHPs Trey McNutt v. Chris Archer
by cubsfan1 on Dec 4, 2010 12:18 PM EST
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PrintWho is the Chicago Cubs best pitching prospect? Most people have Archer as a borderline top 50 and the Cubs best pitching prosepct. Trey McNutt is usually sitting somwhere in the back end of top 100 lists and generally the Cubs #3 prospect. For both of my top 30 Cubs prospect lists has seen McNutt #1 and Archer#3. BP rated both players as 4 star prospects with McNutt 1 spot ahead of Archer. Let's take a look at both from a scouting and numbers standpoint.
McNutt has an athletic 6'4 205 frame. Stuff wise I think they are fairly close. McNutt offers 2 plus-plus pitches with his 92-98 mph FB that he can blow by hitters with good life and a power breaking pitch that is more of a SL then CB that is a true swing and miss pitch. McNutt shows promise with his CU but needs to use it more. McNutt does soemtimes tends to overthrow. While he is a bit of a flyball pitcher he does not give up many HR.
Archer also has an athletic frame but a bit more slight at 6'3 180. Archer has great stuff running his FB up to 98 mph and usually sitting 91-94 with sink and armside run. I've seen his FB called plus but also seen comments that it can be flat and offers just average life. His SL is among the best breaking pitches in the minors so much so that he struggles to control it. The pitch ranges from average to plus-plus. Archers CU has improved and flashes good potential with sink. Archer's stuff generates above average GB% and keeps the ball in the park evidence by just 6 HRA this year and 0 in 2009.
Command wise Archer started the year looking like he had improve his command (3.2 bb/9) at high A while attacking hitters and trusting his stuff. Unfourtunately he regressed to 5 bb/9 upon his promotion to AA and was nibbling some. Archer has always had command/control issues and I fear moving up to more advanced hitters in AAA and the ML level this number could rise. McNutt on the other hand improved as the year went on 3.67 bb/9 low A 59 ip, 2.26 over 67 2/3 ip between high A and AA (i’m including his 2 playoff starts for AA). With stuff being fairly equal depending on who you prefer this is what sets them apart. Early in the year McNutt was overthrowing and as the year wore on his command improved.
Archer had a fantastic season in 2010 no doubt. Looking deeper into the numbers it was basically a carbon copy of his solid 2009 season in his 2nd go around in the Midwest league. The difference being he played on much better teams in 2010 and luck also contributed to the lowered ERA and higher win total. Both players posted great k/9, h/9, and BAA against numbers. The difference here is that Archers sensational AA showing was fueled in part by a ridiculously high LOB% 81.2% and fairly low .261 BABIP. While I know FIP sometimes is not a good indicator for GB pitchers but he did post a 1.61 diference between ERA and FIP at AA.
McNutt on the other hand posted a fairly low 67% LOB% in high A and extremely low 58.6% in a small sample size at AA which also saw a BABIP of .379 that contributed to his struggles in AA. And while he did struggle in the AA regular season he bounced back in 2 playoff starts with 11ip 9h 3er 4bb 12k's winning 1 and losing 1 in which he gave up just 2 er in 6 ip.
Obviously I'm higher on McNutt as he zoomed through 3 levels as a 20 year old in his 1st full pro seaosn. Archer has great stuff and season but I still think there is a greater chance he ends up in the bullpen ala Carlos Marmol then McNutt who's worst case senerio is he could close right now. I like both and hope both will start but right now I feel McNutt is on the cusp of being an elite prospect primed for a breakout ( I know 2010 was to some extent) season in 2011.
I've included a poll and please discuss why you voted either if you are so inclined.
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Another of these, Cubbies?
Haven’t you made one of these before already?
Long time lurker, new time poster.
BCB
i did one of these on the BCB mid seaosn. i don’t remember doing 1 here. Even so I’ve gotten more data and scouting reports since mid season and I getting feedback frm this community alot of pretty knowledgable guys I like hearing from. If it is a dup. from before my bad.
http://www.chicagonow.com/blogs/chicago-cubs-wrigley-bound/
Just checked
and I havn’t done 1 of these since I did Westmoreland v. Hicks last year.
http://www.chicagonow.com/blogs/chicago-cubs-wrigley-bound/
I don't remember seeing one off the top of my head
but I’m glad you did this. I obviously need to re-evaluate McNutt it seems, so this will be very helpful. Thanks for posting!
http://bullpenbanter.com
McNutt could close right now???
i highly doubt that
I don’t think he could ever close
I called it - Joe Mauer's first career Home-Run at Target Field !!!
Why Oh Why did the D'Backs select A.J. Pollock over Mike Trout?
I hate Hunter Wendelstedt, you hate Hunter Wendelstedt we all hate hunter w
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Dec 4, 2010 1:27 PM EST reply actions
RE:
i misspoke what I meant to say is worse case senario he could close.
What exactly makes you say he could never close? Based on what? I’ve seen a couple scouts make that statement about McNutt.
http://www.chicagonow.com/blogs/chicago-cubs-wrigley-bound/
I wouldn't say that is his worst case scenario
His worst case scenario is that he would be a mop up guy in a bullpen.
That being said, I am a big fan of McNutt and think he is capable of being a #2-3 starter. Not an ace but definitely can help a staff. This was a great write up brother, thanks for the insight.
by King Billy Royal on Dec 4, 2010 3:04 PM EST up reply actions
mcnutt is clearly ahead
More faith in his command, better build for a starter are the things that jump out to be brief. Just needs consolidation time to put everything together.
Archer is a B, maybe a B+. McNutt is a B+, maybe an A-.
Wow
I knew you liked McNutt (and I do too), but I didn’t think you liked him THAT much.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
I actually would still give Archer a slight nod
but there’s a lot to like about McNutt. Considering the big news of the day, let’s compare McNutt to say, Kelly (I think you said Kelly was elite in the other thread, if not, my bad, too lazy to open a 2nd window right now). Stuff wise, he compares fairly well. I won’t make a comparison on breaking pitches (some reports really love McNutt’s curve), but I think a case can be made that his fastball is bigger than Kelly’s. Both have good builds and have shown solid command so far. To the best of my knowledge, both have decent changes that need more work. Kelly’s probably a better overall athlete and a better defensive pitcher. He’s a few months younger, and spent the year at AA, but overall, I don’t think there’s a huge difference between McNutt and Kelly.
Stuff
I think McNutt has the better breaking ball and probably more velocity on his fastball (not sure about movement though), but Kelly definitely has the edge change wise:
His most effective pitch right now is an above-average changeup that he delivers with the same arm speed and slot as his fastball, though he used his changeup a little too much last season.
-BA top 10
I ultimately see three plus pitches for Kelly and that his control will improve as he gets more experience with the improved stuff. We’re talking about a guy who just went through his first full season as a starting pitcher. I like McNutt a lot, but I don’t have him as a borderline A-.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
just to be clear
I don’t have McNutt as a borderline A- either. I’ve got him as a low end B+, same with Archer. I didn’t realize Kelly’s change was that good. McNutt’s change is probably better than what most scouting reports suggest though.
I still have Archer ahead for 2 reasons: a) body of work. b) I like his fastball (and specifically, the movement he gets on it, the sink) better.
That said, it is very close for me, and I could flip it around and feel fine. The reports on McNutt in AA, albeit with a very SSS, were very good.
I have them in the same range
So it’s not like I dislike them. I just think Kelly is a tier above both.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
I'm not huge on Kelly
but I agree that he’s ahead of both of them right now. I haven’t made a list this year, and don’t anticipate doing one other than following the CPL, but I’d guess Kelly as roughly a top 30, with McNutt and Archer at least top 50-60 if I did do a llist.
Haven't integrated my lists yet, but we're pretty much on the same page
I have Kelly 10th among pitchers, Archer 23rd, McNutt 25th.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
Like but don't love both...
I see McNutt as a Chris Tillman type. Some might see that as a knock since Tillman hasn’t come up to post strong numbers from the start. I see them both as live armed right handers with fastballs that can touch the upper 90’s but mostly pitch in the 90-93 range…4 seams are straight so both have to learn more about the 2 seam…and both have some good breaking balls (both seem to favor the curveball early in their career)…then the kicker and the reason they’re so highly thought of is that they have that stuff along with tall, lean body types…Tillman probably a little moreso than McNutt.
Archer could be everything from a good starter who happens to be short to Ian Snell to a guy who does a strong impression of Marmol with slightly better control…
Man, Snell was a depressing player to watch
When people talk about mental make-up affecting a player, Ian Snell is a perfect example. As a big Archer fan, I hope that is not his career path.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
Yeah
Not real sure where the ian snell comp comes from. no offense but I don’t think either comparison is very accurate.
http://www.chicagonow.com/blogs/chicago-cubs-wrigley-bound/
Why?
Also…the only reason the Snell comparison even stands out is because it’s a name and I also called Archer short. Stuff wise, skillwise, and frame wise I see alot of parallels in them as prospects…just that Archer doesn’t have that whole weird background Snell had…I think he changed his name twice in the minors…something like that.
Anyway…what’s wrong with the Tillman one? I really liked that one. If McNutt was a special type arm, and not just a good type arm, I think it’d be noticed by now. There’s certainly nothing wrong with being a Chris Tillman type if that’s the issue…
out of curiosity
How are you differentiating between a special type arm and a good type arm? I mean this in a serious note – what factors are you defining? I think if I had to classify McNutt, I’d call him a very good arm that has a chance to be special, but that’s subjective and depends on how one defines things. His fastball/breaking ball are certainly quality, and there’s been positive reports on change. Really, comes down to change development and consolidation for him.
Snell always felt disrespected
I think that’s what caused him to succeed in the first place, and it eventually devolved into what he is now. Raw stuff wise, I think Archer is better. I don’t remember Snell ever flashing two plus-plus pitches.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
Hm...good for him...
looked shorter than that…Either way he’s still got kind of a small frame for a pitcher and his stuff just strikes me as the type that would play up in relief….Snell comparison isn’t perfect but comparisons always tend to be a little hacky…both IMO have similar type arms coming up through the minors as Snell’s fastball/breaking ball combo got it’s raves coming up…I also think the body types and mechanics are somewhat similar despite this newfound height info.
Mind you, I consider myself to be a fan of Archer and was one of the first people calling him the coup of the DeRosa trade…just not sure what he’s going to become.
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