Oakland Athletics Top 20 Prospects for 2011
by John Sickels on Dec 29, 2010 4:00 PM EST
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Oakland Athletics Top 20 Prospects for 2011
All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don't get too concerned about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get past the Top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you want to emphasize.
Feel free to critique the list, but use logic and reason rather than polemics to do to. The list and grades are a blending of present performance and long-term potential. Full reports on all of players can be found in the 2011 Baseball Prospect Book. We are now taking pre-orders. Order early and order often!
QUICK PRIMER ON GRADE MEANINGS:
Grade A prospects are the elite. They have a good chance of becoming stars or superstars. Almost all Grade A prospects develop into major league regulars, if injuries or other problems don't intervene. Note that is a major "if" in some cases.
Grade B prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers. Some will develop into stars, some will not. Most end up spending several years in the majors, at the very least in a marginal role.
Grade C prospects are the most common type. These are guys who have something positive going for them, but who may have a question mark or three, or who are just too far away from the majors to get an accurate feel for. A few Grade C guys, especially at the lower levels, do develop into stars. Many end up as role players or bench guys. Some don't make it at all.
A major point to remember is that grades for pitchers do NOT correspond directly to grades for hitters. Many Grade A pitching prospects fail to develop, often due to injuries. Some Grade C pitching prospects turn out much better than expected.
Also note that there is diversity within each category. I'm a tough grader; Grade C+ is actually good praise coming from me, and some C+ prospects turn out very well indeed.
Finally, keep in mind that all grades are shorthand. You have to read the full comment for my full opinion about a player, the letter grade only tells you so much. A Grade C prospect in rookie ball could end up being very impressive, while a Grade C prospect in Triple-A is likely just a future role player.
1) Grant Green, SS, Grade B: Borderline B+. I respect his power, but I'm worried enough about the strike zone judgment and questions about his defense to kick his grade down a notch from last year.
2) Chris Carter, 1B-OF, Grade B: Borderline B+. He'll be streaky, but he'll hit for power, and I still think he can be more than just a one-dimensional hitter once he gets his feet wet. Won't have any defensive value though.
3) Michael Choice, OF, Grade B: Borderline B+. Tools were underrated in college, but high strikeout rate in the Northwest League worries me.
4) Tyson Ross, RHP, Grade B-: I'd give him a straight B but I'm worried about his health record.
5) Fautino De Los Santos, RHP, Grade B-: Won't rank this highly on other prospect lists, but he's still got great stuff, and the 6.54 ERA at Midland was flukey. His FIP was 2.09.
6) Steve Parker, 3B, Grade B-: Also doesn't rank this highly on other lists, but after seeing him in Arizona, I think his bat is for real. Not sure if he can play third base though.
7) Max Stassi, C, Grade B-: Grade may seem high considering his struggles in the Midwest League, but he can pull a Mesoraco on us.
8) Ian Krol, LHP, Grade B-: I buy into the idea that his polish will make up for lack of plus velocity. Future fourth starter.
9) Michael Taylor, OF, Grade C+: Bad Triple-A year, but I refuse to believe that what he did in the Phillies system was a total illusion.
10) Jemile Weeks, 2B, Grade C+: He's never healthy, so it is hard to know exactly what kind of player he really can be.
11) Yordy Cabrera, SS, Grade C+: Love the power potential, but old for a high school pick and no pro data yet.
12) Adrian Cardenas, 2B, Grade C+: All of his offensive value is tied up in his batting average, and if he can't hit higher than .260 in the PCL, it is hard to rank him higher. Still young enough to improve.
13) Josh Donaldson, C, Grade C+: I think he is underrated and could have some very good years in his late 20s.
14) Eric Sogard, 2B, Grade C+: The guy may not have great tools, but he can play. Good utility guy at worst, could get beyond that.
15) Connor Hoehn, RHP, Grade C+: Awesome K/IP ratios.
16) Aaron Shipman, OF, Grade C+: Would rank higher on pure tools, Baseball America had him at #7, but I'm not Baseball America and I have some concerns about the bat.
17) Matt Thomson, RHP, Grade C+: Could be one of the big steals of 2010 draft as a 12th rounder if he holds the improved velocity.
18) Danny Farquhar, RHP, Grade C+: Should be a very good middle reliever.
19) Chad Lewis, 3B, Grade C: Good power potential, another guy who could rank higher on pure tools, but I want more objective data.
20) Rashun Dixon, OF, Grade C: Another tools guy showing gradual improvement.
OTHERS OF NOTE: Travis Banwart, RHP; Jeremy Barfield, OF; Anthony Capra, LHP; Bobby Cramer, LHP; Royce Consigli, OF; Conner Crumbliss, 2B-OF, Pedro Figueroa, LHP; Shawn Haviland, RHP; Jonathan Joseph, RHP; A.J. Kirby-Jones, 1B; Tyler Ladendorf, 2B; Trystan Magnuson, RHP; Clay Mortensen, RHP; Renato Nunez, 3B; Ryan Ortiz, C; Paul Smyth, RHP; Tyler Vail, RHP; Michael Ynoa, RHP.
An interesting system.
Green, Carter, and Choice could all be Grade B+ prospects, but each as a question-mark that holds me back as I write this. Ross and De Los Santos are in the same boat; both could be Grade B guys, but I don't trust Ross to stay healthy, and Fautino's command remains an issue, although his ugly ERA at Midland is misleading. I'm open to arguments about all of them, pro and con, and invite a discussion.
There is a lot of B-/C+ in this system. Some of them are guys that we just need more data about, while others project as role players, albeit good ones in the cases of Donaldson and Sogard. The system could look a lot deeper in impact players next year if '10 draftees such as Lewis, Shipman, and Cabrera live up to their potential.
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I don't
People who read AN already know this, but I recently did a study on 10 years’ worth of minor leaguers with strikeout rates over 30% in more than 300 Low A-ball plate appearances. There was exactly one of them who ended up having a decent MLB career, and it was Russell Branyan (hardly someone with a typical career path).
That’s the data, anyway. And I see very, very little that makes me believe that Stassi can be an exception. He doesn’t have 75/80 grade power like Branyan, he’s already got injury problems dogging him, and he’s a member of a class of player (high school catchers) with proverbially miserable success rates. I think he’s clearly worse than Josh Donaldson and Ryan Ortiz just among catchers in the system.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
No idea
Didn’t make a note of that info. It was essentially data-mining from BB-Ref by hand, so I had to be pretty restrictive about what I was searching for in order for it not to turn into a dissertation.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I never did ask...
What was the sample size of your study?
Did you separate IFA’s, college players and HS draft picks?
Did you compare players of varying ages or did you only look at 19 year olds like Stassi?
The monster at the end of this blog.
The sample size was all low-A ball hitters from 1995-2004 with >30% strikeout rates
I’m estimating here, but all told I’d guess it was somewhere in the neighborhood of sixty to eighty players (3 to 4 per league per season).
No separation of players by ages or “types,” as that would have reduced the sample size. Most of the players were (as it happens) very young— generally 18-20 year olds like Stassi. However, I did not exclude older players if they fit the cutoff.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I wish you had gone down to ~25%
Since Stassi is hardly miles above 30%.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
You alluded to the most important point
Players do not follow pre-conceived career paths. The Ks are a big negative for Stassi, but I don’t think that completely ruins his prospect status. He has very good defensive tools and hit for more power than he was expected to. I would definitely take him over Donaldson and Ortiz.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
If he didn't have the other attributes he'd be a non-prospect/organizational player
I feel like I’m giving him considerable credit for them just by leaving him in my top 20.
Ranking him over guys who have actually hit, and hit well, is foolhardy IMO.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Donaldson had a pretty decent year even with a career low BABIP last year
and he’s in AAA.
I’d take him any day of the week over Stassi…
All I can say about stats is…
SCOTT BROSIUS!!
by stranahanahan on Dec 30, 2010 12:10 PM EST up reply actions
I'm confused
What percentage of prospects in Low-A have decent MLB careers? I don’t know how you’re defining decent, but I have a hard time imagining that it’s much more then 10%. Wouldn’t a sample of people who struck out more than 30% in Low-A, though, include a lot of 3rd rate prospects? Perhaps players who made it that far because of their defense, or simply to fill a hole, rather than any serious hitting potential. You mention below that the total sample size was 80; if a random sample would produce 8 decent major leaguers, and this includes some dead weight, then perhaps one would expect 3 or 4 decent major leaguers to result out of this. I realize you did a lot of work on this, but how do you deal with this being an issue of a small enough sample making the difference between one success and three or four significant enough to make any real determinations?
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by OldProspects on Dec 31, 2010 11:06 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Obviously, there are significant limitations to what a study like this could tell us
It’s why I’m trying to be very careful about what claims I make. I know it can’t predict the future. All it can tell us is:
1. all players except Branyan who succeeded during a ten-year period did not have >30% Ks, and
2. all players who had >30% Ks except Branyan did not succeed.
What you do with that is up to you, but personally I don’t see enough other positives to rate Stassi as more than an extreme-longshot C prospect.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
A's may be even better than my Rays at this
I still like that minor league system, their major league team is almost all young and awesome and thats with making the mistake of trading CarGo (can also be compared to the Rays letting Hamilton go) but he was a huge question mark.
Anyway, do the Rays and A’s ever trade? I can’t remember any and I want to see who would win a Billy Beane/Andrew Friedman deal.
Price, Garza, Shields, Davis, Hellickson is too awesome, Niemann for closer?
Per MLBTR's GM trade history
The only trade they’ve ever made was Joe Dillon for Adam Kennedy
"You think someone that big would be more well endowed" Aubrey Huff's mother on Pat Burrell
I thought he was going to punch me and I was totally accepting of it. I was planning a reason to thank him if he did." Brian Wilson on Buster Posey
Follow me: Twitter.com/gobroks
Incorrect
The A’s also traded Colome to Rays for Mecir and Belitz, and sent Grieve to the Rays for Lidle in a 3-way deal that included the Royals.
He means only the deals Beane and Friedman have conducted together.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Dec 29, 2010 7:52 PM EST up reply actions
The A's and the Rays don't trade often.
When the Rays trade a player, he usually costs a a few high potential, young minor league talents and vice versa for the A’s. Nether team would be willing to pay the other team’s asking price, therefore we don’t see many trades.
by Mr. Clean Sweep on Dec 30, 2010 12:58 AM EST up reply actions
Bottom third system
Based on the grades of this and others. I know they are likely to experience a big bounce-back next year with the borderline grades and the injuries.
Also, I remember when Michael Ynoa was “all the rage” and Julio Teheran was the afterthought.
ML team is so full of young talent
That they just need these guys in emergencys at the moment and they look very capable, reminds me a lot of the Rays last year. Davis and Niemann went down and 1 of the guys to fill the spot was Hellickson, only one of the best spects in baseball. Shoppach got hurt, Navarro got even worse at the plate, Jaso became our C of the future and we also had Brignac and Rodriguez sitting on the bench half the time that can step in when the older dudes were slumping. There were 2 other options we never took advantage of, we only used a Crawford – Upton – Jennings OF like 3 times and now we will never see it again and McGee probably would of helped out that great pen even earlier than he did.
Same case with the A’s, great players at the ML level with more than capable guys who can turn into stars themselves ready for injuries/slumps.
Price, Garza, Shields, Davis, Hellickson is too awesome, Niemann for closer?
As a fan of the team, I can't help but find myself wondering who these supposedly great players are
because I don’t see any when I look at the roster.
Brett Anderson could be great but he’s got injury problems. Daric Barton had a great season that he will probably never repeat. Who else is there? Cliff Pennington? Gio Gonzalez? Cahill? I suppose those guys could make major leaps forward but there’s really no reason to expect them to.
The front office made a horrible botch of the rebuilding process in 2009 and it’s going to cost them badly. They’re long shots at best to make the playoffs in the next 5-6 years, and likely even longer shots after that unless the new stadium comes through.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Well said PT
Your analysis is great as always.
Dewey and KBR are like Dr. Dre and Timbaland!!! All we do is produce hits!!!
by King Billy Royal on Dec 29, 2010 9:24 PM EST up reply actions
Agreed. That summarizes the sad truth in a nutshell
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 29, 2010 11:19 PM EST up reply actions
So having the best ERA in the AL means nothing?
Everyone is just gonna regress and suck?
"Carter's 25-game hitting streak isn't any normal streak. He's 46 for 97 (.474 average) during the run, adding 16 walks and compiling 81 total bases in the process. I'm out of superlatives for what he's doing." - Kevin Goldstein
ERA is not the best indicator of true talent, no.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
there's going to be regression in both directions
If the pen is healthy, it will almost definitely improve, but there will probably be regression in the rotation (ERA-wise). of course, if somebody outside the organization is #5 in the rotation, that could change things, since they’d be replacing the sinkhole that was Mazzaro last year.
Sheets
I thought Ben Sheets was the sinkhole in the 2010 rotation?
by Colorado Fan on Dec 30, 2010 2:16 PM EST up reply actions
Mazzaro was worse.
Sheets was rather ungood, especially with his massive contract, but if you’re saying which starter pitched a serious chunk of innings and did the worst job at it, it was Mazzaro.
Anderson
is great when he’s healthy. Injuries don’t make him ungreat, just unavailable.
by blackoutyears on Jan 1, 2011 7:27 PM EST up reply actions
Why don't you think Daric will repeat his 2010 season?
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on Dec 29, 2010 9:44 PM EST up reply actions
Actually, I just checked and his UZR number was less ridiculously high than I remembered it as being
Still, a true talent of +12 runs is basically a guy who should be winning the Gold Glove every season. I’m not ready to make that kind of claim about his defense yet.
I also think he’s more likely to walk at 2009 rates in the long term than 2010 rates. All in all I think his true talent is a 3-4 WAR player, not almost 5 like he posted last season.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Always the pessimist.
The pitching staff is young and talented. Id argue if the A’s got Beltre they’d be the favorites in tte West.
"Carter's 25-game hitting streak isn't any normal streak. He's 46 for 97 (.474 average) during the run, adding 16 walks and compiling 81 total bases in the process. I'm out of superlatives for what he's doing." - Kevin Goldstein
That would depend on what you mean by "favorite"
If you mean “highest percentage chance of winning the division,” maybe. If you mean “over 50% chance”, no way in hell.
In any case, having to replace the entire outfield (with little in the farm to help) after 2011 makes a sustained run of contention very improbable.
As for the pitching, we’ve been over this a zillion times. Having the best ERA does not mean you have a good pitching staff. Much of the low ERA is attributable to park and defense.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I understand.
But Oakland will have the same park and more the most part the same defense.
"Carter's 25-game hitting streak isn't any normal streak. He's 46 for 97 (.474 average) during the run, adding 16 walks and compiling 81 total bases in the process. I'm out of superlatives for what he's doing." - Kevin Goldstein
I'd put my hopes in steady improvement from Cahill, not a repeat of a .238 BABIP
http://bullpenbanter.com/
So what?
Yes, the A’s are likely to post a good ERA again next year. No, that does not make the pitching good either. It makes the “run prevention” good, but “run prevention” is a composite of things done by every player on the team except the DH.
You’re acting like there are no opportunity costs to creating a good defense. Many of the A’s players have subpar offensive production relative to their position. The team has to put up with that— damaging the offense— in order to get the benefit of their defense.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Brilliant
My new years resolution is to learn from the teachings of PT. Great points on how having a good defense doesn’t make you a better pitcher, it just means you are in a better situation.
Dewey and KBR are just.......too........sweeeeeeeeeeeeeet!!!!!!
The Wolfpac is looking for new soldiers! Change your logo to the black and red!!!
by King Billy Royal on Dec 30, 2010 4:02 PM EST up reply actions
Yes
What a profound, previously undiscovered conclusion.
"Some field has fences, and sometime, the field cant hold a player, but most of the time, a field cant hold Domingo"
www.domingobeisbol.com/Domingo/Home.html
by hero66 on Dec 30, 2010 7:32 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Nope but it something that most of the posters on this site are continuing to ignore
Have fun watching another .500 ball club this season.
Dewey and KBR are just.......too........sweeeeeeeeeeeeeet!!!!!!
The Wolfpac is looking for new soldiers! Change your logo to the black and red!!!
by King Billy Royal on Dec 30, 2010 9:54 PM EST up reply actions
.500???
You’re being waaay too optimistic.
Dewey and KBR are just.......too........sweeeeeeeeeeeeeet!!!!!!
The Wolfpac is looking for new soldiers! Change your logo to the black and red!!!
LOL
Good point Dewey! The Rangers are going to give them the fingerpoke of doom!!!!
Dewey and KBR are just.......too........sweeeeeeeeeeeeeet!!!!!!
The Wolfpac is looking for new soldiers! Change your logo to the black and red!!!
by King Billy Royal on Dec 30, 2010 10:45 PM EST up reply actions
Haters.
"Carter's 25-game hitting streak isn't any normal streak. He's 46 for 97 (.474 average) during the run, adding 16 walks and compiling 81 total bases in the process. I'm out of superlatives for what he's doing." - Kevin Goldstein
Realists.
Dewey and KBR are just.......too........sweeeeeeeeeeeeeet!!!!!!
The Wolfpac is looking for new soldiers! Change your logo to the black and red!!!
by King Billy Royal on Dec 31, 2010 2:26 AM EST up reply actions
We shall see.
"Carter's 25-game hitting streak isn't any normal streak. He's 46 for 97 (.474 average) during the run, adding 16 walks and compiling 81 total bases in the process. I'm out of superlatives for what he's doing." - Kevin Goldstein
Nawww, HATERS
And it’s been pathetically obvious for some time now. The vast majority of your comments about the A’s organization, fans and players are negative in some way. If there’s a post regarding something positive for the A’s, your usually not caught dead anywhere near it, and if there’s a negative comment made, your either the one making it or kissing the person’s ass that did.
I’ve been an avid viewer, and occasional poster on this site for the better part of the last 4-5 years and while I feel Dewey Finn is a bit of a hater himself, you take the cake and I really wonder what A’s supporter ran over your puppy, or called your girlfriend fat. Get over it and learn to love the A’s, it’s good for the soul.
I almost posted this the other day
The reason he likes PT so much is because PT, an A’s fan, is generally negative about the A’s, so he feels like he has some sort of a leg to stand on when he’s talking crap about them.
I don’t see why he, as a Jays fan, trashes the A’s so much, but it really, really gets old.
"Some field has fences, and sometime, the field cant hold a player, but most of the time, a field cant hold Domingo"
www.domingobeisbol.com/Domingo/Home.html
The Jays future is much brighter
We have a much stronger system and productive players at the big league level inked to good contracts (unfortunately not the Wells contract….anybody want Vernon?). Anthopolous appears to be doing the things that Beane used to do by fleecing other GMs (Morrow and Escobar trades) and the Jays are going to be absolutely loaded with high draft picks in the 2011 draft class. It is a pretty exciting time to be a Jays fan but I’m not sure A’s fans can say the same with their question of whether they will remain in Oakland looming over the franchise.
Dewey and KBR are just.......too........sweeeeeeeeeeeeeet!!!!!!
The Wolfpac is looking for new soldiers! Change your logo to the black and red!!!
by King Billy Royal on Jan 2, 2011 1:57 AM EST up reply actions
Actually when I posted my comments 3 things were positive, 1 was neutral, and 2 were negative
1. Carter isn’t as bad as he was this year, but isn’t as good as he was in 2009. He should develop into a 30 HR, .260 hitter who generates quite a few walks. If he can find a position he doesn’t butcher he should have decent value.
2. Green’s glove won’t let him stay at SS but he could be a good replacement for Ellis in 2012.
3. Dixon is my candidate to jump up the charts next year as I think he will begin translating his tools into results.
4. Weeks needs to show that injuries aren’t the main thing he has in common with his older brother.
5. FDS will have a dominant season and finish the season with a strong performance with the big club.
6. Taylor will continue to flounder in the Oakland system.
I think you are focusing on the negative and not looking at the big picture. Do you think that the A’s are really that much better than last season? Is Matsui really going to jump you up the standings when one can argue that Cust is more productive?
Dewey and KBR are just.......too........sweeeeeeeeeeeeeet!!!!!!
The Wolfpac is looking for new soldiers! Change your logo to the black and red!!!
by King Billy Royal on Jan 2, 2011 1:55 AM EST up reply actions
Yes, they are
Because Willingham and DeJesus are much better than Davis and Sweeney. Matsui/Cust is likely a wash, but Willingham/DeJesus over Davis/Sweeney is easily an upgrade.
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by CaliforniaJag on Jan 2, 2011 4:58 AM EST up reply actions
Well seeing h they finished at .500
With one of the worst offenses in baseball. Its safe to assume if they get even close to league average offense they will be in great shape.
"Carter's 25-game hitting streak isn't any normal streak. He's 46 for 97 (.474 average) during the run, adding 16 walks and compiling 81 total bases in the process. I'm out of superlatives for what he's doing." - Kevin Goldstein
Overly pessimistic
Paul we all have a great deal of respect for your opinions and research your provide us with, however completely discounting the A’s defense seems ludicrous. Furthermore, with many of our players only in their second or third season to me it reasons that they would be more likely to improve rather than decline. Just look at Pennington from the beginning of the year when he was barely hitting .200 he finished over .250 if not .260. If he can carry that into next year you have a very nice top 15, maybe top 12 shortstop. Granted I agree with you that going for it in 2009 with the Holiday trade was borderline insane, and if we still had Gonzalez we would be in great position to win the division, but hindsight is 20-20. I think Beane was under orders to sell tickets and thought that was the best move. Perhaps it was financially, unfortunatley we see the result on the field.
This.
The A’s are in nowhere near in bad a shape as PT says. Its fair to say the pitching benefited from the defense and were not as good as their ERA showed, however BA/TC/Gio are so young its really stupid to think they would not get better next year anyway. PT always shows the pessimist side but rarely the optimist.
I have to say that I really like Gonzalez
Good fastball, but a really excellent curve.
I do too, but he has enough reasons for concern that I can't project him at more than about 2.5 WAR with a straight face
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Some players almost have to bounce back, just as a matter of probability, because there were SO many failures
but it’s hard to predict who they’ll be, hence the currently low grades. The thing is, other systems have players like that too— they just also have some guys who actually had good seasons, a group the A’s are almost devoid of (with apologies to Parker and Krol).
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
And Sogard
Just for starters.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
just out of curiosity
What grade did Corey Brown get and what would have been his one sentence blurb if he didn’t fall through the cracks of the Was/Oak Top 20s?
This - and I'd be curious about Henry Rodriguez as well
With the Nationals’ list being posted in November, the trade in mid-December and the A’s prospects posted now, both players got shafted out of a Sickels review :-)
I think that the Nationals will keep one of the two new flamethrowers, Rodriguez or Elvin Ramirez, in their bullpen this year – and I think Rodriguez is a little more polished and may have the inside track there. Corey Brown I expect to open in Syracuse, although he may start at Harrisburg if the Nats decide to keep stringing along the Justin Maxwell adventure.
Jeffress & Odorizzi
Didn’t they get skipped as well as Brown & H Rod?
The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.
i'll get them
I’ll get them slotted in with the royals when I get to the brewers. all will be made whole next week
by John Sickels on Dec 29, 2010 9:22 PM EST up reply actions
brown
Brown C+ HenRod C+. Both borderline B- cases.
by John Sickels on Dec 29, 2010 9:21 PM EST up reply actions
Wow
C+/B- seems high for a RP without control.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
But consistent given Farquhar's (too high, IMO) grade
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Yeah, looking subjectively, I'd agree.
Farquhar’s C+ looks very awry when considering guys like Donaldson, Cardenas, and Sogard got the C+.
But then, I hate relief prospects as a whole.
Although in fairness, HenRod was a B- in preseason grades
And I don’t think his 2010 campaign hurt him. He was dominant at AAA (13.1 K/9, 0.891 WHIP even with a BB/9 of 3.8) and showed some promise at the MLB level while obviously needing to work on his control. Is Sickels noted in August, the stuff is there – he just needs to throw strikes and stay healthy.
And thanks for posting the follow-up – I’ll report the grades back to Federal Baseball :-)
Choice
Can’t figure what to make of him. It all looks so good, but those Ks… those Ks….
S***
Going back and looking at the stuff from that time, it is a good comp. Didn’t remember it that way at all.
Alright, you’ve sold me (Roxgirl included here – from other thread). I’m going to regroup and take another look at Choice.
High risk/reward with him I feel.
"Carter's 25-game hitting streak isn't any normal streak. He's 46 for 97 (.474 average) during the run, adding 16 walks and compiling 81 total bases in the process. I'm out of superlatives for what he's doing." - Kevin Goldstein
gonna be a stud
Dewey and KBR are just.......too........sweeeeeeeeeeeeeet!!!!!!
The Wolfpac is looking for new soldiers! Change your logo to the black and red!!!
Not likely
People tend to forget this, but Cust was a spectacular hitter in the minor leagues. He was basically hitting like Albert Pujols every season in leagues that he was actually young for.
I’d say AJKJ has a tiny chance of becoming the next Kila Kaaihue and a very large chance of doing nothing.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I’d say AJKJ has a tiny chance of becoming the next Kila Kaaihue and a very large chance of doing nothing.
I’d say that Kila Kaaihue has a very large chance of doing nothing.
;)
Dewey and KBR are like Dr. Dre and Timbaland!!! All we do is produce hits!!!
by King Billy Royal on Dec 29, 2010 9:29 PM EST up reply actions
I'm still a believer
He needs a team that actually trusts him with an everyday job.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Very possible
I am not a fan of his, but that organization is a terrible fit for him with Butler in the majors and Hosmer moving up the ladder so quickly.
Dewey and KBR are like Dr. Dre and Timbaland!!! All we do is produce hits!!!
by King Billy Royal on Dec 29, 2010 9:37 PM EST up reply actions
yet he's still going to get a chance in 2011
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
http://twitter.com/doublestix
by doublestix on Dec 29, 2010 9:45 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
AJK-J 20% bb vs. 27% k rates in NWL
Cust career 20% bb vs. 26% k rates in minors (Choice 13% bb vs. 36% k in NWL, btw).
I'm not sure minor league BB/K ratios tell you that much
Jack Cust had ridonkulous BABIPs. Consider his season in the Pioneer League: 66 hits in 141 balls in play (.468). Or in AA: 111 hits in 277 balls in play (.401). He wasn’t just drawing a large number of walks and blasting a few moonshots, he was absolutely tearing the cover off the ball every time he made contact.
AJKJ’s BABIP was a pedestrian .331 in the NWL.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Shawn Haviland
Really impressed me with his number in the Cal league. Id be tempted to put him on Danny Farquhar’s spot.
"Carter's 25-game hitting streak isn't any normal streak. He's 46 for 97 (.474 average) during the run, adding 16 walks and compiling 81 total bases in the process. I'm out of superlatives for what he's doing." - Kevin Goldstein
At the very least, I'd be curious to know why he didn't warrant a C+ grade
The monster at the end of this blog.
Yeah...
He pitched extremely well at home in Stockton which I thought was on of the top two hitters parks in that league. I could be wrong on that tho. He pitched to a 1.99 ERA in Stockton. 61 1/3IP 47H 13BB 74Ks.
"Carter's 25-game hitting streak isn't any normal streak. He's 46 for 97 (.474 average) during the run, adding 16 walks and compiling 81 total bases in the process. I'm out of superlatives for what he's doing." - Kevin Goldstein
C+ guy for me
I don’t put too much stock in ARL for pitchers, and he certainly had a great season.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I think B- is fair for Ross
He needs to work on his change-up and staying healthy. The fastball and slider, plus solid work in AAA as a 23 year old warrants a “B” grade… but his track record for staying healthy definitely knocks the grade down a bit.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Ian Krol
Something to keep an eye on… while pitching for Stockton at the end of the year his fastball was clocked at 93 and was sitting in the low-90’s. Then in an interview on Scout the A’s were talking about how Krol’s velocity fluctuated between the 86-90 that everyone is used to 88-92, depending on the night. There didn’t seem to be any rhyme or reason behind the velocity variance… just some nights he came out throwing harder than others.
Maybe the August gun was hot and maybe the A’s are blowing a bit of smoke, but it’s something to keep an eye on in 2011.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Must. Proof. Read. Before. Posting.
Otherwise everyone will know about my secret eyeball fetish!!!
(sheesh)
The monster at the end of this blog.
Having the same first name as Mr. Kroll
I am pretty used to hearing ‘eye on’ for Ian
reminds me
a little bit of Brett Anderson with the velocity fluctuations – that’s a good thing, too.
re: De Los Santos
Question for John (or anyone): when you see a pitcher absolutely hammered with men on base…but otherwise dominant, in your experience how likely is it to be mostly “bad luck” versus discomfort/ineffectiveness pitching from the stretch?
Also, I agree with parish; looks like a bottom third system right now—even the top guys have as many questions as answers, so to speak.
I used to think it was "bad luck"... Now I think it might be a skill.
Hiroki Kuroda is a great example of this. Throughout his career he is one of the best pitchers in all of baseball, except when runners reach base. I’ve paid close attention to him and he is extremely uncomfortable in the stretch and he becomes almost sloth-like. The time from receiving the ball to actually throwing it must be at least doubled when runners are on base.
Check out these situational stats. The ERA can be ignored (as you will obviously have a higher ERA with runners on base), but look at the K/BB, the K/9, and the BAA… And the sample sizes are getting large enough to be considered significant.
Ricky Nolasco is another player that this reminds me of. I believe that some players do get unlucky but, at some point, if the sample sizes are large enough there has to be some significance.
Then why is Kuroda’s ERA only .14 higher than his FIP, and lower than his xFIP if he is so ineffective with runners on base? Perhaps the disparities you’re seeing are more common than you think, or something else is going on
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on Dec 29, 2010 9:48 PM EST up reply actions
The sample sizes in the minors are never large enough
Also, one of the prime explanations for a pitcher being worse with men on base— pitching out of the stretch— may not even be applicable to relievers, who often don’t use a windup motion at all.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I'm also going to ask this question
Why doesn’t A’s brass want to let FDLS try it out as a starter post-TJS? I know he’s getting kinda old for a prospect, but Tommy John Surgery is a rather common thing, and he has eons more value as an SP as an RP, even if he’s King double digits and fireballing.
Well they did but his arm got balky and so after a while they just sent him to the pen.
Also hes going to run out of options soon IIRC.
first off: it was a joke dumbs*** and second, who gives a s*** how long you’ve been there? although I will say that being one of the most rec’d posters on a sports blog for the Oakland A’s is pretty impressive to me. it shows me that you’ve attained a level of loserdom that I thought was only imaginable at a Star Trek convention.
keep taking count of your recs on your spreadsheet and one day I promise it will get you laid (fingers crossed).
until then, F*** OFF. by 2pintsofbooze
by designatedforassignment on Dec 29, 2010 8:07 PM EST up reply actions
Option years shouldn't be an issue
If his SBN page is correct, he’s used all of one option. He’ll have 2 options remaining.
Also there might be some tricky injury manueveration where he could end up qualifying under the 4th option rule because of the injury, which would give him 3 remaining options.
Of course, he shouldn’t be needing all those options.
The arm thing makes sense though.
I THINK he would get a fourth option year
He only has 2 full seasons played so far, and even with two more option years, that wouldn’t get him to the five you need to have accumulated to be prevented from getting a fourth option.
I think the A’s still have three years to fool around with him in the minors. I too would rather they tried to keep him a starter than kept him in the pen. The marginal value of him over the next best relief candidate is SO tiny. I can’t help wondering what the point is.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I think the point is the arm.
Last year when they tried to stretch him out after rehabing the TJS he started to have elbow soreness.
first off: it was a joke dumbs*** and second, who gives a s*** how long you’ve been there? although I will say that being one of the most rec’d posters on a sports blog for the Oakland A’s is pretty impressive to me. it shows me that you’ve attained a level of loserdom that I thought was only imaginable at a Star Trek convention.
keep taking count of your recs on your spreadsheet and one day I promise it will get you laid (fingers crossed).
until then, F*** OFF. by 2pintsofbooze
by designatedforassignment on Dec 29, 2010 9:37 PM EST up reply actions
Pop quiz: complete this sentence
“If at first you don’t succeed…
a. try, try again."
turn him into a semi-worthless relief pitcher.""We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
This is so much less clever thanks to SBN autoformat
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I never said I agreed with it.
first off: it was a joke dumbs*** and second, who gives a s*** how long you’ve been there? although I will say that being one of the most rec’d posters on a sports blog for the Oakland A’s is pretty impressive to me. it shows me that you’ve attained a level of loserdom that I thought was only imaginable at a Star Trek convention.
keep taking count of your recs on your spreadsheet and one day I promise it will get you laid (fingers crossed).
until then, F*** OFF. by 2pintsofbooze
by designatedforassignment on Dec 31, 2010 6:46 PM EST up reply actions
no changeup?
He never really had much of a changeup before his injury, and he would really need an effective third pitch to be a starter. Then again, when I saw him this year he had issues with left-handed batters – he could really use a passable changeup to keep them honest.
This is what I thought
Wasn’t there some talk he’d have to be a reliever even before TJS?
"Some field has fences, and sometime, the field cant hold a player, but most of the time, a field cant hold Domingo"
www.domingobeisbol.com/Domingo/Home.html
yes
Partly because he threw so hard, but also because his changeup barely existed.
Could he start now? Maybe . . .he’s got a very solid build and pumps mid-90s fastballs without a problem in 2 inning stints. But I don’t see a reason to mess with a good thing, and it seems that the A’s have reached a similar conclusion.
Bullpen pitchers aren't good things
That’s the point. They suck. They’re near-worthless.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Ross
It annoys me that A’s are so hesitant to rework his delivery. His last start in AAA prior to injury had him throwing 96-98mph.
A’s have a group of hitters in carter, taylor, sogard, donaldson, weeks (if healthy), cardenas that could compete for spots by mid 2011, definitely in 2012 but all have issues.
At least on the pitching side at the mlb level, have talent, youth, and depth in both the rotation and bullpen. Now need to fill in with hitters especially with needing possibly an entire starting OF, 2b, DH not filled beyond this upcoming season
Wait a sec...
You want the A’s to re-work a delivery that produced 96-98 in his last GS?
I understand the worry about Ross’ mechanics, but doing a major overhaul could cost him the stuff that everyone likes so much.
The monster at the end of this blog.
I had the same reaction
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Ross is probably more likely to have a successful career with his current mechanics (AND STUFF)
than new, tinkered with mechanics, which possibly could cost him the stuff he uses to get hitters out.
Its most beneficial to both parties, both to the A’s from an asset-management scheme (get the most out of his cost-controlled years, let him break down later in career), and to Ross in a career earnings scheme (obviously, he’ll earn more as an MLBer with a very short career than as a career minor leaguer if his new delivery hurts his ability to get MLB hitters out) to leave his mechanics alone.
Thoughts
1. Carter isn’t as bad as he was this year, but isn’t as good as he was in 2009. He should develop into a 30 HR, .260 hitter who generates quite a few walks. If he can find a position he doesn’t butcher he should have decent value.
2. Green’s glove won’t let him stay at SS but he could be a good replacement for Ellis in 2012.
3. Dixon is my candidate to jump up the charts next year as I think he will begin translating his tools into results.
4. Weeks needs to show that injuries aren’t the main thing he has in common with his older brother.
5. FDS will have a dominant season and finish the season with a strong performance with the big club.
6. Taylor will continue to flounder in the Oakland system.
Dewey and KBR are like Dr. Dre and Timbaland!!! All we do is produce hits!!!
by King Billy Royal on Dec 29, 2010 6:40 PM EST reply actions
Fixed
2. Green’s arm won’t let him stay at SS but he could be a good replacement for Ellis in 2012.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
So green moving to cf or 3b would be even less likely?
Ive read CF could be an option in some reports. If you move him to 2b what happens to Weeks, cardenas, sogard.
I’ve also read Weeks could move to cf, but he’s improved at 2b, really hisdurability and injuries might get worse if in the OF
CF is possible, but I definitely don't see 3B
Arm strength isn’t a huge factor there. The arm has been the fringey tool since he was drafted, and the scouting reports on it haven’t gotten any better.
Of the two, I think Weeks’s speed would work better in CF, but really, he just needs to focus on staying on the field.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
Its been well documented that...
his reported lack of arm centers on poor footwork and not his arm strength.
Links?
Do you have some links supporting this? If so, it may change my opinion on his potential to stay at SS, though I still question whether he has the ability to change his footwork as I am sure they have tried to improve this before.
Dewey and KBR are like Dr. Dre and Timbaland!!! All we do is produce hits!!!
by King Billy Royal on Dec 29, 2010 7:50 PM EST up reply actions
Can you post them again?
If it is well documented, then it shouldn’t be an issue.
Dewey and KBR are like Dr. Dre and Timbaland!!! All we do is produce hits!!!
by King Billy Royal on Dec 29, 2010 7:53 PM EST up reply actions
I can...
try and remember to post some tomorrow during the day. A search here should give you some results though.
Thanks brother
I look forward to reading the links tomorrow. If Green can stick at SS, I really love his upside.
Dewey and KBR are like Dr. Dre and Timbaland!!! All we do is produce hits!!!
by King Billy Royal on Dec 29, 2010 7:57 PM EST up reply actions
By whom?
Certainly not Baseball America:
His range and arm strength are fringy for the position, and even with a quick release he has difficulty getting carry on his throws and making them from deep in the hole. The A’s hope his arm can be solid-average with the right footwork. If he has to change positions, he probably has to go to second base because he wouldn’t have the arm strength for third base either.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
So it isn't just his arm strength?
If his range AND arm strength are both suspect, I really don’t think he has a realistic shot staying at the position. Thank you for the post Jar.
Dewey and KBR are like Dr. Dre and Timbaland!!! All we do is produce hits!!!
by King Billy Royal on Dec 29, 2010 8:03 PM EST up reply actions
Varying reports on the range
It’s probably good enough, but I haven’t seen anything more than hope that better footwork will alleviate the arm issues.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
Question
If somebody has footwork issues, yet after 2 years they still have not corrected the issues, is there really a reason to think that will change? At this point I believe that Green’s arm is what it is.
Dewey and KBR are like Dr. Dre and Timbaland!!! All we do is produce hits!!!
by King Billy Royal on Dec 29, 2010 9:25 PM EST up reply actions
That may be so...
but I believe he’ll have enough arm/glove in combination with his elite bat to stick at SS.
Here is some info regarding Green with some links. Jar75 and myself one again have it out though nothing has changed. We’ll have to wait until next season. I expect to see Green in the majors at some point next year.
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2010/9/22/1704939/project-prospects-top-5-ss-and-2b#47568414
http://razzball.com/casey-kelly-and-grant-green-scouting-the-unknown/
I really like Grant Green as a prospect
But there’s just too much smoke around his arm issue(s) for me to be a big believer in him as a SS.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
Why would you like him if you don't think he's a shortstop?
His bat is pretty lame for positions with real hitting requirements.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Do you think he could be good at 2B?
Dewey and KBR are like Dr. Dre and Timbaland!!! All we do is produce hits!!!
by King Billy Royal on Dec 29, 2010 10:29 PM EST up reply actions
Defensively? I suppose so
Hard to tell without actually seeing him at the position. In any event, though, the A’s have so many second basemen types floating around (Sogard, Tolleson, Rosales, Cardenas, Weeks, not to mention Ellis, who’s the longest-tenured Athletic by far) that the odds are very high he’ll never play it.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Young with power and decent D is a pretty damn good player.
I don’t see Green reaching that level. Young’s pretty close to his ceiling.
I don't mean to play doubting Thomas (pun intended) here,
but what specifically makes you believe that his bat is better than what it’s showing right now (weak BB and K rates and non-elite power)?
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I buy into his ability to hit for AVG
and I project more power for him. The approach scares me the most… but I think he could end up a plus defensive 2B and I think he will hit plenty for that.
Something like a ~.280/.340/.450 line with 0 to +3 defense would be a pretty valuable player.
I may not have been clear in my question
What particular factors about Green make you think that he will be a high-batting-average hitter?
I understand the linkage between a high batting average and him being above-average overall as a player. What I’m wondering about are specific factors (expected decrease in strikeout rate, unusually high line drive rate, speed out of the box that might not show up in stolen base numbers, tendency to hit the ball to all fields, etc.) which would tend to support a high batting average.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Ah
I like his swing and feel for hitting. Basically, I’m betting his approach and pitch recognition improve. There is no statistical basis for my opinion.
it's easy to see why the scouts liked him so much
Got a chance to see him face Robbie Ross in the Texas League playoffs. Good looking swing, tall and athletic build, and impressive strength, very wiry though. He can already hit the ball hard and it’s not hard to see him adding considerable power to his game as he fills out in his mid-late 20s.
As for the plate discipline . . .well, I actually saw him work a few counts nicely, holding off on some tough pitches that were balls, but on the other hand I also saw him hit first pitch double play balls multiple times.
If he really had that feel for hitting wouldn't he be king less now?
first off: it was a joke dumbs*** and second, who gives a s*** how long you’ve been there? although I will say that being one of the most rec’d posters on a sports blog for the Oakland A’s is pretty impressive to me. it shows me that you’ve attained a level of loserdom that I thought was only imaginable at a Star Trek convention.
keep taking count of your recs on your spreadsheet and one day I promise it will get you laid (fingers crossed).
until then, F*** OFF. by 2pintsofbooze
by designatedforassignment on Dec 31, 2010 6:48 PM EST up reply actions
Eh... "feel for hitting" doesn't necessarily come with pitch recognition. See Vitters, Josh.
I think he’ll improve in other areas that will let the bat come out more. I have reservations about him, but I still think it won’t be hard for him to end up a plus bat at 2B.
Citing Josh Vitters doesn't make me thrilled about the concept of a prospect
Vitters is pretty awful.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
If putting the bat on the ball isn't feel for hitting I don't know what you mean by it.
first off: it was a joke dumbs*** and second, who gives a s*** how long you’ve been there? although I will say that being one of the most rec’d posters on a sports blog for the Oakland A’s is pretty impressive to me. it shows me that you’ve attained a level of loserdom that I thought was only imaginable at a Star Trek convention.
keep taking count of your recs on your spreadsheet and one day I promise it will get you laid (fingers crossed).
until then, F*** OFF. by 2pintsofbooze
by designatedforassignment on Jan 1, 2011 7:16 PM EST up reply actions
He hit .318 this year.
& that’s part of what I mean by it. I do have concerns about his ability to continue hitting for a high AVG at higher levels if he doesn’t get more selective.
Wait, you think Green will be in the majors by 2011?
He hasn’t even played at AA yet. Either you think he’s going to make amazing advances or you expect a lot of the A’s middle infielders to break down.
Keep in mind...
he was a college prospect that is advanced in many areas but obviously needs refinement in areas as well. I predict, barring injury to himself or injury/movement of current Oakland players, he starts the year in AA, likely ends the minor league season in AAA with a ‘11 September call-up. This will set him up with the opportunity to potentially start the ’12 season as the A’s starting SS.
Considering his poor defense and his K rates, I'd say he isn't nearly as polished as reported.
He needs a lot of work.
Maybe but the A's really need a 3B, and will probably
need a 2B by 2012 as well. I like Pennington as much as the next guy but it wouldn’t shock me to see him decline either.
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 29, 2010 11:43 PM EST up reply actions
I don't think Green can play all 3 positions at once.
But I don’t see him being ready in 2011. Maybe mid 2012.
Yes, the point is that they really need him quickly
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 30, 2010 2:33 PM EST up reply actions
Agreed
When I say glove, I actually mean defense, but I should be more specific in my analysis.
Dewey and KBR are like Dr. Dre and Timbaland!!! All we do is produce hits!!!
by King Billy Royal on Dec 29, 2010 7:42 PM EST up reply actions
I may be the only one...
but I think Adrian Cardenas is still a top 5 prospect in this system. And I certainly like him better than Weeks.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
I like him better than Weeks.
Soft tissue injuries in prospects that rely on speed is a huge red flag for me.
first off: it was a joke dumbs*** and second, who gives a s*** how long you’ve been there? although I will say that being one of the most rec’d posters on a sports blog for the Oakland A’s is pretty impressive to me. it shows me that you’ve attained a level of loserdom that I thought was only imaginable at a Star Trek convention.
keep taking count of your recs on your spreadsheet and one day I promise it will get you laid (fingers crossed).
until then, F*** OFF. by 2pintsofbooze
by designatedforassignment on Dec 29, 2010 8:09 PM EST up reply actions
Cardenas also performed better with the bat in Midland, at a younger age.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Dec 29, 2010 8:33 PM EST up reply actions
Right but he also was a high school draftee.
Cardenas’ injuries (wrist) should both not turn into the nagging variety and could have masked production this year.
first off: it was a joke dumbs*** and second, who gives a s*** how long you’ve been there? although I will say that being one of the most rec’d posters on a sports blog for the Oakland A’s is pretty impressive to me. it shows me that you’ve attained a level of loserdom that I thought was only imaginable at a Star Trek convention.
keep taking count of your recs on your spreadsheet and one day I promise it will get you laid (fingers crossed).
until then, F*** OFF. by 2pintsofbooze
by designatedforassignment on Dec 29, 2010 9:36 PM EST up reply actions
I think saying "could have masked production" is a huge understatement
Most of his awful AAA numbers (all of them, perhaps?) came in the couple weeks after returning from the injury. If I recall correctly, he was hitting under .200, was sent back to Midland, raked, then got called back up and did fairly well when he was actually healthy.
He’s at least a B- for me.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Dec 30, 2010 9:09 AM EST up reply actions
the real question is, where does he play
He played 3B for Midland and handled it well enough, with very nice arm strength, but even with the bad wrist it’s hard to see him generating enough power to profile well there. He could be the heir apparent to Ellis at 2B, but it’s hard to know when Cardenas will get his chance.
I’ve mentioned this comp for Cardenas previously, but I really like it: Frank Catalanotto.
Sigh
3B and 2B have identical positional adjustments. Any bat that “profiles” in one of the two will also “profile” at the other.
And given the (already alluded to above) enormous numbers of second basemen in the A’s minors, there’s almost nil chance that Cardenas would ever play the position in the majors.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
A lot of people (not me) dispute that 2B and 3B are "equal" in this sense
I think John is actually one of them, since he’s made comments in the past about players not having the power to stick at third.
I’ve tried to fight this battle before, but I’m not sure I did a great job with it.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Dec 30, 2010 5:23 PM EST up reply actions
I'm aware of the adjustments
Teams still want power out of their third baseman, for better or for worse.
I'm basically 100% sure that the A's don't give a shit about that nonsense
given their enthusiastic support for Daric Barton as the first baseman.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
barton is a different story
He’s an excellent defender and an on-base machine. There are always players who prove exceptions to the rules, but it’s typically because they offer big pluses that compensate for their weaknesses according to the rules.
But if the rules are wrong, as they often are, a smart team is going to benefit by not abiding by them.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Dec 30, 2010 7:49 PM EST up reply actions
Weeks has more theoretical potential
but I think we’re all completely jaded with injury-prone players at this point.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
You're not
I would probably slide him in right at 5. I think he’s consistantly one of the most underrated prospects. That being said, he does have some issues that need to be addressed if he’s going to have a good Major League career.
My list, having made a few adjustments:
Green B
Carter B
Parker B
Taylor B
Ross B
Choice B-
Krol B-
Cardenas B-
Thomson B-
Sogard B-
Weeks C+
Cabrera C+
F. de los Santos C+
Donaldson C+
Ortiz C+
Straily C+
Haviland C+
Rest are Cs. I really dislike relievers and hitters who can’t even make contact with cruddy low-minors pitching. (I’m giving Choice a bit of a mulligan for sample size reasons.)
The one guy I’m confused not to see on John’s list is Daniel Straily. Then again, I’m unaware of ever having heard a true scouting report on him. All I’ve really got is the great strikeout numbers, decent other stats (command a little rough but not a killer, hit rate is fine) and the fact that he’s a big dude (6’4", 230). All of those say he’s legit.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Wow! High grade on Sogard and Straily
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 29, 2010 11:20 PM EST up reply actions
Yes
On Sogard, my high grade is due to the fact that I genuinely think he’s going to be a plus glove at 2B. I base that on a combination of three things: the fact that the A’s sought him out in trade (and they are very good at evaluating infield defense); the good TotalZone marks that he has received in the years we have access to; and the reports of improving defense from evaluators.
As for Straily, like I said, I have nothing either positive or negative to go on w/r/t his “stuff.” All I know is that he came out of a relatively unheralded college at a young age (hence is potentially the kind of guy who could have been overlooked), has no obvious physical or statistical red flags, and has 215 strikeouts in 207 professional innings.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Can you link to the comments on Sogard's improved defense?
I don’t recall seeing these, except maybe in-house from the A’s, and Billy Owens always thinks everybody is awesome and everything so I tend to ignore him.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Dec 30, 2010 9:11 AM EST up reply actions
Second the question
I’ve only seen “average or less” on Sogard’s defense from everything I’ve read.
Then again, everything I’ve read is at least a year old. The biggest knock I remember reading was about his double play pivot… that could get better with work.
The monster at the end of this blog.
This is why I'm not a fan of Sogard (that and I don't think his minor league offensive numbers are that impressive; basically, I think he's close to his ceiling already)
Everyone talks about him being a “quality utility player” but the latest reports I’ve seen – and yeah, they are a year or so old – suggest that he’s only adequate at second (which means he can maybe play third if he has the arm, and he probably can’t play short).
I remember reading that he was sure-handed and caught “what he could reach” or something to that effect. But, if that’s changed, then I’m willing to reevaluate.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Dec 30, 2010 5:25 PM EST up reply actions
I'm just going off what I read in the Community Prospect threads
You’d have to ask the person (vignette17, maybe?) who first talked about them.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I also wanted to ask about TotalZone for minor leaguers
As a general rule, I just don’t bother with minor league defense statistics, but I’m willing to be convinced that they’re worth looking at. Does it correlate at all with the respected major league metrics?
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Dec 30, 2010 5:26 PM EST up reply actions
I don't even think TZ numbers are avaliable anymore now that minorleaguesplits has gone dark
http://bullpenbanter.com/
They have (or at least had, prior to Sean Smith taking a job with an MLB team) it for major leaguers too
and it works fine; I mean, it’s not on a level with UZR, but it’s pretty solid. Players who post good TZ numbers in the minors have tended to go on to post good defensive numbers in the majors.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Totalzone is a kludge
with the requisite bombastic marketing name. Correlating to UZR means what to you?
Nope, not me
I’ll I’ve seen is the Billy O interview thejd44 mentions above.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
An End of the year chat on the A's scout.com site...
Not sure where to find it exactly, but one of the writers (Melissa, I think) said that Tony D believed Sogard had GG defense. May be club spin, but something to consider.
I emailed a copy of the scout.com chat with me, so I'll repost it here
9:06
[Comment From Jon]
What are your thoughts on Sogard? He had a couple of months hitting .850 plus OPS. How is his D?
9:07
Melissa: At second, it has been excellent. Tony D. called him Gold Glove caliber. At SS, he’s still learning the position.
I'd have to call that team spin
Hell, the A’s spent a year and a half giving Cardenas time at SS after every other scouting source (including the Phillies, who drafted him) said he couldn’t start at SS for a big league team.
Multiple sources have said Sogard doesn’t have the range or arm to handle SS at anything other than a spot basis. I’m willing to believe that he may have improved his defense at 2B… but not if the source is also saying stuff about him playing SS.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Yeah, I can't help but still be skepitcal of this especially when a year previous words like "Average" and "decent" where the positive descriptions of his defense
Can a guy in his mid-20s go from average to Gold Glove when he’s played the position his whole life? Probably. Anything’s possible. Still, I do have some doubts.
But, hey, if he can play GG defense he can be a poor man’s Elfstein with the bat and he’s still going to be valuable.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Dec 31, 2010 5:27 PM EST up reply actions
Again, a year ago, when we had TotalZone, he posted a +6 at second base in 90-some games
I’ve got no problem buying the notion that the scouts are taking a while to catch up to reality on this issue.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
That's putting way too much faith in TZ
Unless Smith has further refined Total Zone in the past year, all his system does is take information off the boxscores and create a rating. It offers no context on the batted ball. Some balls hit towards the 6 hole are going to go through even if your SS is the love child of Ozzie Smith and Gumby. Total Zone would penalize Ozzby if he was unfortunate enough to see more of those rocket shots than average.
The monster at the end of this blog.
They didn't say he was any good
“Still learning the position” is team code-speak for “he sucks at it”. “Gold Glove caliber” is likely code-speak for “he’s been pretty consistent”, which I’ll easily take from Sogard.
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by CaliforniaJag on Dec 31, 2010 6:10 PM EST up reply actions
Oh, I forgot Tolleson was technically still eligible
I guess I’d give him a C+ as a generalized “should be a decent utilityman” thing. Not a big deal either way. He doesn’t really feel like a true prospect to me.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Parker
I see Parker ranking well on all kinds of amateur lists (and fairly well on this, obviously non-amateur one) but never see a whole lot of analysis on him as a player. He’s just a guy nobody talks about.
The numbers from last year are great, obviously. The approach looks fantastic, and the power is nice even for the Cal League. Is there anything else though? Is it just that everyone looks at the numbers from last year, and ranks him high enough to hedge their bets? I’m looking for a reason to get on the Parker train, but I can’t seem to find anyone excited enough about him to convince me.
AZ
Saw him in the arizona fall league. I really like his swing, and his approach at the plate. . .patient but aggressive too if that makes sense. Tools aren’t the best, don’t know if he can play 3B, but I like the bat.
by John Sickels on Dec 30, 2010 1:47 AM EST up reply actions
Good list, just some minor quibbles
If C is “organizational filler” I think Ortiz, Haviland, and Smyth should be C+. Haviland has completely remade himself physically with Eric Cressey, like a real transformation, not just a guy shaping up a little bit. Dropped his bodyfat% from the 20s into single digits, and added very significant strength in the process. Velocity has raised from mid 80s to sitting in the low 90s and occasionally touching 95. Performance is obviously there. Pretty damn good for a 33rd round pick from Harvard. Ortiz has been banged up, but played very well in his time on the field. Balanced skills with 16% BB rate at Stockton and .202 ISOp (only 227 PA), plus he’s a first rate receiver. Smyth is just a K machine. Over 30% in his time in the minors so far, along with a good BB rate.
Unless you have a really nice scouting report on Farquhard, he’s an easy C, imo. 14% BB rate at AA between two seasons (just marginal improvement last year). Way too high. In fact, on paper, Magnuson has been a clear step above him. Magnuson might be an interesting rotation choice at Sacramento if the A’s are inclined to give him another shot at starting.
by AgitationStation on Dec 30, 2010 3:15 AM EST reply actions
CVC
No doubt Carter had a struggle when he was first called up. Right around that time he made some adjustments at AAA and was really mashing. It sure looked like he began figuring things out at the ML level in Sept, and I really think he has a bright future.
I know that I have always been really high on him, mostly because I am not that concerned with defensive value in 1B/LF/DH prospects, but it is striking how he has fallen off the radar with some. In a changing game, he is on a very short list of prospects that have legit 70+ power. It seems that he has always been a little behind in development, I think with more experience he will figure out how to hang with off-speed stuff and be a difference maker in the middle of a ML line-up.
DHing is a drag of about 22.5 runs off the bat of an average hitter
17.5 is positional adjustment, and hitters also tend to hit somewhat worse when DHing than they do when playing the field.
22.5 runs is an enormous hit. It means you would have to be like an .860 OPS guy normally to be league average when DHing.
Even if you like Chris Carter’s bat a lot— and I do— the utter cipher that is his defensive ability is a savage drag on his value. There doesn’t appear to be any position that he can play competently, and the positional requirements of DHing are immense.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I don't think the average DH has anywhere close to an .860 OPS.
Looking at Fangraphs: 2010, DHs with 300+ PA (though this does not only include their numbers as a DH), only 4 out of 16 guys had an OPS greater than .860. One of those four was Manny, who did all his good work while playing the field in the NL.
The average DH looks more like an .820 OPS.
Am I misunderstanding what you’re saying?
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Dec 30, 2010 5:30 PM EST up reply actions
The average DH is a sucky player
It’s kind of like the average relief pitcher. They aren’t that good as a whole. (Though keep in mind that you need to add about 25 points of OPS to the average DH to account for the fact that the average player’s hitting suffers when he is not playing the field.)
What I’m talking about is the requirement for someone to be a league-average player, overall, as a DH.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Lots of guys that could rebound.
System doesn’t look great now, but it could be quite solid by the end of the year. I still believe in Taylor, Cardenas and Carter, though all were overhyped at one point.
Is there any prospect that has been called under the radar for as long as Fautino de los Santos?
Dude’s been an “underrated” prospect about to blow up since about 2006.
Well, that's just not true.
He was in Rookie Ball in 2006. And he was dominant. He was also dominant at various levels of A ball in 2007. His arm fell off in early 2008, and he returned at the very end of 2009.
He was also one of the White Sox top 2 or 3 prospects when he was traded to the A’s, so he was hardly underrated then. Did anybody call him under the radar? 2008 and 2009 were lost seasons (and absolutely nobody said he was “under the radar” before 2009 since he was in the middle of TJ rehab).
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Dec 30, 2010 5:33 PM EST up reply actions
Eh
At least we have a lot of depth. Basically the A’s have become a star-allergic factory of solid regulars and role players.
"Rollins helps them with the small ball when he's not in the lineup." - Joe Morgan
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