Houston Astros Organization Discussion
by John Sickels on Dec 26, 2010 7:00 PM EST
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PrintI am now working on the Boston Red Sox. The next team on the list is the Houston Astros, to be followed by the Oakland Athletics and the Los Angeles Dodgers. Use this thread to discuss the Houston system. How much has it improved over the last year, and what sleepers do you like?
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Obviously high on Lyles. Everyone knocks his lack of fastball and I understand. I hope, and it is entirely possible he gets the 2-4 mph that would put him in the top handful of prospects. If he doesn’t play for the Astros until 2013 he will still only be 22.
The next high upside guy may be Ovando. I have seen a few swings and a few throws to be excited about. I will feel better when he starts to play baseball. At least he was expensive.
JD Martinez looks like a legit hitter. Folty is very projectble. I have a good vibe on Velasquez.
The high upside OFers are DDjr, Austin and Wates. I hope one hits enough to get their speed and glove to the OF. There are a few promising catchers in the lower levels that hit a ton but are old for league and suspect defense.
I can’t see many starters that have 1 or 2 rotation ability. The bulpen arms look pretty good but aren’t above C+ level.
Mier is still worth monitoring but I haven’t supported the 1st round drafts in several years. Off the top of my head I can’t remember the last one I agreed with.
That leads to the best news for the Astros farm system. Uncle Drayton is getting out of the baseball business. That is something I am looking forward to more than any prospect, outside of Lyles.
My first mistake was assuming you knew what I was talking about.
lyles, martinez
I seem to recall some buzz that the Astros thought that there was a mechanical tweak or two that could give him frontline starter potential. I’d love to know what it was. From seeing him, he appears to have a somewhat inconsistent stride point that might be costing him a bit of oomph on some of his pitches.
Scouting the Sally had a good report on Martinez. I agree that he is a legit hitter for average, but the rest of the tools aren’t so good. Hopefully he takes the offseason to develop his power stroke, which would make him somebody to really talk about either at LF or 1B.
Prospect Retro?
Hey John –
I’d like to request a Prospect Retro (sort of…) on Bud Norris for when you wrap up with researching/posting for your 2011 book. Granted last year was his first full year in the bigs, so he’s not such a “retro” prospect, but he seemed to make corrections Post-All Star Break that don’t show up on his cumulative 2010 stat pages due to his horrendous 1st Half. Would like to hear your thoughts when the time comes around – whether the adjustments were for real and if his progession is what you throught it would be.
Thanks.
Pitching & Middle Infield are much stronger than in past years.
Most of the list will consist of players added in the last two years.
Folty, Valasquez, Alaniz all showed promise this year.
Altuve has to be considered a prospect despite his size. He leads a solid group of middle infielders – Cartwright, Villar, & Mier. And Deshields will be joining them this year as he moves to 2nd.
Corner infielders are the weakness of the system.
Sleepers – Carlos Quevado – look at his walk ratio in Tri Cities last year., J. DeLeon – converted shortstop who closed in Tri Cities.
agreed
It’s still a crappy system, one of the worst in the game . . .but at least this year, you can at least see the possibility of the system seeing true upwards movement. That hasn’t been the case with the Astros for a long time.
Agreed
I disagree with all aspects of the teams’ draft philosophy. Drayton doesn’t believe is paying over slot and so the first 2 rounds are normally huge overdrafts and they are hoping they find a diamond. The team also keeps drafting good athletes that are marginally skilled baseball players. ie,There are very few guys that have plate discipline. I have yet to figure out the pitching draft theory.
My first mistake was assuming you knew what I was talking about.
Really?
Most teams do stick to slot in the first round, are their picks huge overdrafts? Or is it because they don’t consult online mock drafts before making their selections? What’s hard to figure out about their theory with pitchers? Heck has said more than once that he likes tall, athletic, projectable pitchers. Lyles, Seaton, Bushue, Folty, Velasquez…
by astrosfan76 on Dec 27, 2010 11:09 PM EST up reply actions
yes
Yes they are overdrafts. I don’t know if the Astros consult online mocks but if they did the system would be better. I didn’t know Heck laid all that out for us, tall, athletic, projectable.. gotcha.
I have some questions for you.
Do you think the Astros draft the best available players, in their opinion, the first 2 rounds?
Do you think anyone has ever said they like short, unathletic, unprojectable pitchers before?
My first mistake was assuming you knew what I was talking about.
by Shamus on Dec 28, 2010 3:05 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
So...
Every team whose picks don’t gel with BA’s is run by cheap morons? Here’s a question Heck answered in a chat in ’09 (he also answers your question about plate discipline in the chat):
Is it rewarding when you have guys succeed that others think are reaches, like Castro and Lyles, and going back to your Milwaukee days, guys like Fielder and LaPorta?
Bobby Heck:
It will be more rewarding when Castro and Lyles are here in Houston having the successes they’ve had here in a short window. We try to stay true to our philosophy and not be reactive to the public or media’s perception of the draft.
They find guys that they like and take them. Most of the guys taken around their selections sign for slot, so it’s not about being cheap. Aaron Hicks, Brett Lawrie, Josh Sale, and Chris Sale are all guys that were linked to the club leading up to their respective drafts. Would your opinion of the club’s drafts be different if they had signed some combination of them, even though they signed for slot? Callis even made a comment after the ‘10 draft about liking the Astros’ picks.
From another chat:
It seems that there was a slight more emphasis placed on taller pitchers than the previous regime had in the 2008 draft. Is this an accurate statment in your opinion, and does height and projectability have a more significant weight on how a player is evaluated versus polish and his “now” stuff?
Bobby Heck:
Talent rules the day, but size is incorporated into our evaluation process. My personal feeling is when two players are staring at you of equal ability, if you’re going to miss, miss with big.
He’s talked about the other qualities elsewhere, but that gives you an idea.
Do I always agree with their picks? No, I do not. But, they also have access to a lot more information than I do. I don’t think it’s about being cheap or being incompetent; regardless of the role you credit Wade with in building Philly’s team, Heck’s track record in Milwaukee speaks for itself. Basically, it’s about having an opinion and being willing to stand up for your belief in players.
Draft lists are based on talent alone. Sometimes guys are passed over because of signability. What Castro has done is not rewarding or great in any way. Look at the flipping team and show me all the good baseball players the Astros have drafted the last 5-6 years. Now look at other teams and see how many 1st or 2nd rounders are on the team.
Those are both answers from a can by Heck. The Astros may not be totally incompetent but they are truly cheap. You have to pay for talent and that is why they have none.
My first mistake was assuming you knew what I was talking about.
Subjective
Draft lists are subjective. There are many variables and that’s why you see a lot of difference of opinion, even in the first round. Again, if the team had signed either Sale, Hicks, or Lawrie in their respective drafts, would you still call them cheap? They all signed for less than the Astros signed Castro or Deshields.
It’s fun to spend the team’s money, but it’s not always about spending the most money. The best players aren’t always the most expensive and the most expensive aren’t always the best. To be fair, the club’s been just outside of Top 10 in spending from ‘08-’10, spending well more than the Braves and Twins during that time, spending more than the Rays the past two drafts, and spending more than the Royals in ‘10. So, the cheap label is no longer warranted. That’s without even mentioning a vastly larger international budget.
We’re not talking about 5-6 years ago, we’re talking about the last 2 1/2 years. They’ve signed a lot of younger players during that span, those guys take time to develop. Only a few have had time to reach the upper levels, when systems really start to look stacked. Just because they aren’t there and because a statistically-inclined list looks down at guys still in the developmental stages doesn’t mean they aren’t making progress.
I forget who I wanted this year. It is either here or at crawfishboxes.
Where are you getting the draft spendings? Some of those teams may have also been missing 1st or 2nd rnd picks. Arguing that the Astros are spending more money and they deserve credit is futile because of the quality of the players.
If you just want to have a thought that “they know more than me” that is fine. That is your thought then. Don’t honk that they have great players and are drafting well when it is just not true.
The Astros are paying slot for guys that are overdrafted because they are afraid players deserving of the draft position will ask for more. They have put themselves in this position by taking a hard stance and having lost picks in the recent past.
Castro and DDjr were huge overdrafts that are rich because of Astro fear, paranoia, and group-think.
My first mistake was assuming you knew what I was talking about.
Now you’re changing your argument. They’ve gone from cheap because they don’t spend money to cheap because they’re afraid that their scouts can’t determine what a player’s willing to sign for, resulting in inferior selections. FWIW, Deshields signed for over $400K over slot and Folty signed for $350K over slot. Given how Folty signed within days of the draft, I don’t think they were surprised that he asked for more than slot.
I contend and will maintain a stance that they know more about the players in a draft than anyone on this site. They have first-hand knowledge of thousands of players and years of experience of professional scouting. Not a thought, just stating facts.
But, I guess you have it all figured out with pessimism and conspiracy theories. Players shouldn’t even bother because their careers are already determined by message board posters. How about letting the kids play and see where they are 5 years after their draft?
by astrosfan76 on Dec 31, 2010 10:31 AM EST up reply actions
Not sure why it didn’t post my links, but:
Austin Wates
I think Wates is the hitter from this system that really breaks out this year. No evidence, just a gut feeling from following the farm. Ben Heath might also surprise people, and it will be curious to see where he starts this year.
"Every time you go to that cook-off you get drunk as a poet on payday!"
Lyles and ???
Wow … IMO, this is a very depleted system. (Not a stretch to say).
Jordan Lyles is the gem of the system … Ran through multiple levels at 19 yrs old. Plus stuff with a moving low 90’s FB. If not rushed a solid #2 SP which are very valuable in MLB. He’s very under the radar and could (although it’s a long shot) be up in April/May 2011 and make a run for ROY (even a longer shot). That’s exciting in itself.
That’s the good news. The bad news is the rest of the system is ho hum. Folty is my #2 guy in the system but way off from Lyles. Very projectable … Martinez is good too but not where Houston wants to be if you are talking about #3 projectable prospect in the system. Mier is way off and looking like an average MLB SS or Nick Punto-lite.
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