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San Diego Padres Top 20 Prospects for 2011

Simon Castro of the San Diego Padres throws a pitch during the 2010 XM All-Star Futures Game on July 11 2010 (Photo by Stephen Dunn/Getty Images)

San Diego Padres Top 20 Prospects for 2011

All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don't get too concerned about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get past the Top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you want to emphasize.

Feel free to critique the list, but use logic and reason rather than polemics to do to. The list and grades are a blending of present performance and long-term potential. Full reports on all of players can be found in the 2011 Baseball Prospect Book. We are now taking pre-orders. Order early and order often!

Star-divide

 

QUICK PRIMER ON GRADE MEANINGS:

Grade A prospects are the elite. They have a good chance of becoming stars or superstars. Almost all Grade A prospects develop into major league regulars, if injuries or other problems don't intervene. Note that is a major "if" in some cases.

Grade B prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers. Some will develop into stars, some will not. Most end up spending several years in the majors, at the very least in a marginal role.

Grade C prospects are the most common type. These are guys who have something positive going for them, but who may have a question mark or three, or who are just too far away from the majors to get an accurate feel for. A few Grade C guys, especially at the lower levels, do develop into stars. Many end up as role players or bench guys. Some don't make it at all.

A major point to remember is that grades for pitchers do NOT correspond directly to grades for hitters. Many Grade A pitching prospects fail to develop, often due to injuries. Some Grade C pitching prospects turn out much better than expected.

Also note that there is diversity within each category. I'm a tough grader; Grade C+ is actually good praise coming from me, and some C+ prospects turn out very well indeed.

Finally, keep in mind that all grades are shorthand. You have to read the full comment for my full opinion about a player, the letter grade only tells you so much. A Grade C prospect in rookie ball could end up being very impressive, while a Grade C prospect in Triple-A is likely just a future role player.

San Diego Padres Top 20 for 2011

1) Casey Kelly, RHP, Grade B+: Double-A numbers aren't great, but he was rushed to the level, and he should look a lot better in San Antonio this year. Future number two or three starter if all goes well.

2) Simon Castro, RHP, Grade B+: I think he'll need a year of Triple-A to finish refining his breaking ball and control, but I remain impressed with him overall.

3) Jaff Decker, OF, Grade B+: I absolutely love this bat.

4) Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Grade B: I don't think he'll be a superstar, but he should be very solid. Needs another year in the minors.

5) Donavan Tate, OF, Grade B-: Very tough to rank. Grade A tools, Grade C skills, with injury and health issues. Could be an A- next year, or he could fizzle in A-ball.

6) Corey Luebke, LHP, Grade B-: A strike-throwing starter, should be a number four guy for a long while.

7) James Darnell, 3B, Grade B-: I still like him despite erratic, injury-plagued season. I'm more concerned about defense than his hitting right now, I think the bat will be fine.

8) Reymond Fuentes, OF, Grade B-: Great tools, speed, glove, hitting skills still raw. Watching him and Tate in the same outfield would be a treat, on defense at least.

9) Drew Cumberland, INF, Grade B-: Grade could go a notch higher if he could just stay away from the doctors.

10) Jedd Gyorko, 3B, Grade B-: Solid bat from the 2010 draft.

11) Johnny Barbato, RHP, Grade B-: Borderline C+. Consolation prize for not signing Karsten Whitson. Easy velocity, cost $1.4 million, hasn't pitched yet but I like him.

12) Matt Lollis, RHP, Grade C+: Big, throws hard, throws strikes, breakthrough candidate for 2011.

13) Adys Portillo, RHP, Grade C+: Raw, needs significant command refinements, but a high ceiling arm.

14) Keyvius Sampson, RHP, Grade C+: I'd give him a B- and put him in the top ten if not for questions about his health.

15) Juan Oramas, LHP, Grade C+: Mexican lefty is short and stout, but has decent stuff and excellent performance record in tough environments.

16) Edinson Rincon, OF-3B, Grade C+: High ceiling tools, could explode in Cal League.

17) Jason Hagerty, C, Grade C+: Switch-hitting catcher with power, patience, adequate glove, but was a bit old for the Midwest League.

18) Logan Forsythe, 2B, Grade C+: Can't hit in San Antonio, but has been solid on the road in the Texas League for a year and a half.

19) Blake Tekotte, OF, Grade C+: Outfielder with multiple skills would prove useful on the bench.

20) Zach Cates, RHP, Grade C+: One of my favorite junior college pitchers from the '10 draft.

21) Jonathan Galvez, SS, Grade C+: Won't stick at shortstop and strikes out a lot, but has some power, speed, and is just 20.

22) Jose De Paula, LHP, Grade C+: Sleeper lefty has finished injury recovery.

23) Everett Williams, OF, Grade C+: Would rank higher on tools alone, but bat was very disappointing last year.

OTHERS OF NOTE: Anthony Bass, RHP; Vincent Belnome, 3B; Brad Brach, RHP; Matt Clark, 1B; Erik Davis, RHP; Cody Decker, 1B; Jeremy Hefner, RHP; Cedric Hunter, OF; George Kontos, RHP; Kellen Kulbacki, OF; Rymer Liriano, OF; Rob Musgrave, LHP; Rico Noel, OF; Andrew Parrino, INF; Dan Robertson, OF; Evan Scribner, RHP; Josh Spence, LHP.

The trade with the Red Sox adds three premium prospects to a system that was already rich in B-/C+ types.

On the pitching side, Luebke is ready to help in the majors now, Castro should be ready to help in the majors with in a year, but Kelly will need a bit more time. The rest of the impact arms are some distance away, though there are several guys who could help in the bullpen (Scribner, Brach, Kontos, Hefner) as soon as this year. I like Barbato a lot, and watch out for Oramas, who could help sooner than expected.

On offense, there is a lot of raw material but a lot of them have questions. Tate and Fuentes have enormous upside and great tools, but will they hit as well as expected? This is especially true for Tate, who could be a superstar or a huge bust. Decker and Rizzo should both be solid at worst, and excellent at best.

Overall, this is a strong farm system that deserves more attention than it receives.

Comment 68 comments  |  1 recs  | 

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Castro

You said Kelly could be a number 2 or 3 starter if all goes well. If all goes well with Castro what kind of pitcher do you see him as?

by cgouds77 on Dec 26, 2010 3:20 PM EST reply actions  

castro

Castro: 2 or 3 peak….although different style than kelly.

by John Sickels on Dec 26, 2010 5:15 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't see it.

Not that its a huge gap or anything… I just think Castro’s deception is a big reason for his success in the minors so far. I’ll take Kelly & his two plus secondary pitches. Both should be excellent, though.

by alskor on Dec 26, 2010 6:48 PM EST up reply actions  

+1

I don’t think it’s all that close either.

http://bullpenbanter.com/

by Jeff Reese on Dec 26, 2010 7:47 PM EST up reply actions  

Castro's deception?

He pitches in the 90’s and touches 95… He’s not a soft-tossing pitchability guy…

-peter

by PeterF on Dec 26, 2010 8:16 PM EST up reply actions  

I didn't say he was...

Deceptive ≠ soft tossing pitchability guy. Castro is a quality pitching prospect who is also deceptive with a kind of… el duque style weird delivery.

I think he’s one of the better pitching prospects in the game, in fact… but I do have Kelly a few spots above him. Like I said… they should both be excellent. I think Kelly has significantly better stuff and is more advanced in his command of that stuff at this point. Castro may have a tick more velo but Kelly is better across the board. If you think Castro is a significantly better prospect than Kelly I would advise you to take another look and stop focusing so much on minor league results out of context. I also think many would be surprised to find out Kelly had the higher K rate at AA this year.

Full details and rationale will be available in the SP prospect list we’re releasing over on the site next week, but personally I have Kelly as the 13th best SP prospect and Castro as the 19th. Again… they’re both good. Kelly’s secondary stuff puts him ahead for me. Kelly has also already demonstrated outstanding control in his careeer(though he lost it this year).

by alskor on Dec 26, 2010 8:46 PM EST up reply actions  

I never said I disagreed...

…with the ranking, just didn’t understand the “deceptive” comment and wondered if it did = “soft-tossing, pitchability” guy…

I rated them:

1. Kelly
2. Decker
3. Castro
4. Tate
5. Rizzo

http://www.friarhood.com/on-the-farm/659-san-diego-padres-top-30-prospects-for-2011.html?showall=1

-peter

by PeterF on Dec 26, 2010 9:09 PM EST up reply actions  

Nice article.

Man… I just have no idea what to do with Tate. I think I was the only one at BB who had him listed as a top 10 CF prospect (which tbf, was a very stacked list). Tough. I have a feeling I’m going to end up moving him around a ton on my top 100. Like… one of those guys you end up moving every time you open your list.

by alskor on Dec 26, 2010 9:14 PM EST up reply actions  

I rank them...

1. Castro 2. Tate 3. Kelly 4. Fuentes 5. Rizzo

by Havok1517 on Dec 27, 2010 1:07 AM EST up reply actions  

Wow!

I think usually, we get too enamored with the rankings and positioning within a ranking (i.e. you have Castro, Tate, and Kelly and your top 3 – Is Castro really #1? Should he be #2, #3? Who knows. But Castro is among the Padres top prospects – as is Kelly and where you rank them in respect to eachother is less important than it is to whether or not you evaluate them as top prospects)…

That said, how can you not have Decker in that same discussion? Decker is one of THE ELITE hitters in all of minor league baseball. He HAS to be SOMEWHERE in the top 5…

-peter

by PeterF on Dec 27, 2010 1:14 AM EST up reply actions  

No, he doesn't

Kelly
Castro
Tate
Fuentes
Rizzo

http://bullpenbanter.com/

by Jeff Reese on Dec 27, 2010 10:22 AM EST up reply actions  

If I had ranked beyond 5...

I would have put 3B Darnell at #6 and 1B/OF Decker #7, with his limited defensive ability, at #7. I think most people here would agree that I’m a stickler for body projections ie: frame/peak weight/etc. and I don’t like what I see from Decker. If he stays in SD, he can’t beat Rizzo for the 1B job and I don’t like him play outfield in that large park. Sure Decker could be an anomaly but I wouldn’t count on it.

by Havok1517 on Dec 27, 2010 11:37 AM EST up reply actions  

Decker/Darnell

So, do you like Darnell’s bat better than Decker’s? If not, there’s a pretty glaring inconsistency in there, since if James can’t stop tripping over his god-awful footwork at 3B, he’s going to have to find another place on the diamond to play.
The chance of a move before reaching 6 years of big league is greater for Darnell than it is for Decker.

Random thought… if your gripe is that Decker’s weight will be a limiting factor for him when he’s 25, isn’t a club like San Diego going to maximize their value out of him before that time anyway?

by realitypolice on Dec 28, 2010 11:27 AM EST up reply actions  

honestly, I'd just move Darnell now

The footwork is pretty bad, but it’s not the only problem he has on defense. He makes a lot of bad reads on what to do . . .I don’t think I saw him play a single totally clean game in the field.

Fortunately, the bat looks pretty good.

by mrkupe on Dec 28, 2010 12:16 PM EST up reply actions  

Me too!

That’s absolutely my thought on Darnell as well (although, if they haven’t already moved Rincon, they’re clearly not in a rush to move anyone!). That’s why I asked Havok about his opinion on their bats, because I think Decker’s is better.

by realitypolice on Dec 28, 2010 2:45 PM EST up reply actions  

I will agree that...

currently Decker has the better bat over Darnell and he likely will have that edge over him for awhile. But I think the fact that Darnell, at this moment, plays a more premium defensive postion gives him the edge. Darnell does have more projection and a higher ceiling than Decker does as I feel Darnell has a much better body and frame to mature.

I also think that Decker cannot successfully play the OF at a good enough level, especially in Petco. He’s going to get slower and his bottom half grows and he just doesn’t have anything other than a bat. Sorry, I’m betting against the exception.

by Havok1517 on Dec 28, 2010 3:12 PM EST up reply actions  

the problem is

Darnell might play a more premium position for now, but he’s playing it at a level that would be totally unacceptable at the major league level. I suppose you can make the argument that his defense was hindered by his injuries even after coming back, and there may be some truth to that. At the same time, as his bat came to life, his defense didn’t show the same improvement.

by mrkupe on Dec 28, 2010 6:17 PM EST up reply actions  

What deception?

Here is film. I see no deception in his delivery. Just a hard throwing young kid.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BEgQEs3Ie44

Do you know what we get to do today? We get to talk baseball!

www.websoulsurfer.com

by websoulsurfer on Dec 27, 2010 12:39 AM EST up reply actions  

Look how closed his front is at the start of his motion...

Look at the arm action. Look how he throws across his body. High leg kick with knee reaching mid chest and still facing away. Its also all very slingy. As a hitter, its extremely hard to pick up the ball coming from a pitcher like this. You can’t even see it until very late in his delivery. This is typically what we mean when we describe someone as “deceptive.”

Contrast this to Kyle Gibson (BA recently mentioned in their Twins top 10 that his delivery is “very clean” and lacks deception): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-0OSFFreIw

Curious… do you think Dontrelle Willis wasn’t “deceptive?” That’s who Castro’s body and delivery remind me of, though I can see why El Duque is mentioned all the time, too.

Please understand that having a deceptive delivery is generally a plus, not a negative (unless you’re throwing across your body late such that it scares one about arm troubles). In this case, its something I do generally like about Castro – but I do fear that when we analyze his performance it can be an element that is clouding his minor league stats some… and allowing him to succeed even where his stuff/command/control/polish/pitchability isn’t entirely up to snuff (as opposed here to Kelly). Still a lot to like here and he’s a fairly elite pitching prospect in my book.

by alskor on Dec 27, 2010 2:19 AM EST up reply actions  

Willis was definitely deceptive but Castro doesn't look anything like that.

To be honest, and I hate to do this, he looks like a right handed Madison Bumgarner. The both turn slightly and have slingy arm motions (I think Bumgarner more so though). Not many people are as “deceptive” or have as unique deliveries as Willis, El Duque or Juan Marichal.

by lions1 on Dec 27, 2010 4:44 AM EST up reply actions  

I can see Bumgarner there.

I certainly see a lot of Willis here, too, though. YMMV.

by alskor on Dec 27, 2010 2:07 PM EST up reply actions  

"a right handed Madison Bumgarner"

That’s actually a reasonable comaprison, and Bumgarner’s delivery is considered to be very deceptive. Being less deceptive than the Willis/Hernandez/Maricahl trio doesn’t mean much. You could have a worse curve ball than Bert Blyleven and still have a damned good one.

I’ve only seen Castro in the FG, which was a disaster. I’m trying to completely erase it as it seems to have been the epitome of a good pitcher having a bad day.

by blackoutyears on Dec 27, 2010 5:35 PM EST up reply actions  

I really like Casey Kelly....

I think he’s a guy who should end up capable of throwing up a #1 season or two.

by SenorGato on Dec 26, 2010 6:25 PM EST reply actions  

I'm neutral on Castro v. Kelly

but Rizzo >> Decker. Decker’s bat would have to be absolutely massive to make up for the lack of defensive value, considering Rizzo’s bat is pretty darn good and he’s plus defensively at first.

by PrincetonCubs on Dec 26, 2010 7:03 PM EST reply actions  

+1

I’d have it…

1. Castro
2. Rizzo
3. Kelly
4. Decker

by Dewey Finn on Dec 26, 2010 7:31 PM EST up reply actions  

Hmmmm

A non-elite 1B over Casey Kelly? Interesting. Can’t say I agree.

http://hasthelargehadroncolliderdestroyedtheworldyet.com/

by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 26, 2010 11:12 PM EST up reply actions  

Who says...

…Decker doesn’t have defensive value? He may END UP being below adverage defensively, but he played CF in the Arizona League, he pitched 93 off the mound in HS, as of right now, he’s a plus defender for a corner OF. He’s even stole a few bases every year… Again, he’s thicker and may get moreso, and that is a geniune concern for the future, but it completely disingenious to suggest he lacks defensive value.

-peter

by PeterF on Dec 27, 2010 10:21 AM EST up reply actions   1 recs

I think the correct phrase

should be that “Decker profiles to lack future defensive value.”

by Havok1517 on Dec 27, 2010 11:42 AM EST up reply actions  

I would disagree

I don’t think anything I said was disingenuous…he is NOT a plus defender right now. Pointing to 20 games in CF two years ago and his pitching in high school as evidence of good defense? Not so much. For that matter, Rizzo stole 10 bases last year, but I don’t think that means he’ll be winning any footraces.
Decker’s arm may be good, but his range/footspeed is suffering from his weight, and he takes bad routes. The fact that so far the weight has gotten worse/been unimproved is a bad sign (it doesn’t get easier to lose weight as you get older, unfortunately.) He’s a below average (average, to be generous) defender now who profiles to get worse, unless he really starts taking fitness seriously.
The bat is still great, though, don’t get me wrong

by PrincetonCubs on Dec 27, 2010 1:24 PM EST up reply actions  

Just curious Princeton

Have you actually seen him play the outfield? If so, when/where?

by realitypolice on Dec 27, 2010 4:11 PM EST up reply actions  

not last year

but three game series in Peoria, July of 09, IIRC

by PrincetonCubs on Dec 27, 2010 10:10 PM EST up reply actions  

Hmmm...

…Decker, circa 2009, was overweight and the Padres had asked him to take his eating/fitness more seriously after the 2008 season. Like many 19 year olds, he didn’t pay much attention to his caloric intake… However, prior to the 2010 season, he did start to take his fitness sersiously and was much more muscular and slimmed down… All the scouts I talked to said he was better than advertised and that his “poor defense” reputation was based on presumption from people who knew about his physique without having seen him play, and that he should end up being no worse than average at a corner OF unless he adheres to a Tony Gwynn eating phillosophy.

-peter

by PeterF on Dec 27, 2010 6:23 PM EST up reply actions  

Love the Decker grade

Also love the bat and don’t think his defense is as bad as people say.

"Some field has fences, and sometime, the field cant hold a player, but most of the time, a field cant hold Domingo"

www.domingobeisbol.com/Domingo/Home.html

by hero66 on Dec 26, 2010 7:33 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

Logan Forsythe

Surprised how low he is ranked. Is he going to be in San Antonio again this season?

by Ion293 on Dec 27, 2010 12:53 AM EST reply actions  

Forsythe will be in AAA Tuscon

…and will put up monster numbers. Casual MiLB observers will over-rank him but as much as San Antonio hurt his stock, Tuscon will help it.

-peter

by PeterF on Dec 27, 2010 1:00 AM EST up reply actions  

Decker vs Rizzo

I saw an interview with Jed Hoyer on the MLB channel during the winter meetings as they were discussing the AGonz return, and he stated that Kelly and Rizzo are the top two prospects in the system. I have to disagree…..I like Decker’s bat more than Rizzo’s at this point. I may be jaded as I own Decker in a keeper league, but he had an excellent 2nd half in 2010. He hit in 15 of his last 17 games, with 10 HRs and 27 RBIs from July 27th-Aug 18th.

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.sbnation.com
www.minorleagueball.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 27, 2010 1:18 PM EST reply actions  

That have to hit in real life too

I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to go chase it. - Rogers Hornsby

BallKnowledge

by Shutdown on Dec 27, 2010 1:45 PM EST up reply actions  

and play

defense in real life too.

by Havok1517 on Dec 27, 2010 1:46 PM EST up reply actions  

Decker

He will always get knocked for his defense. Lets be honest thou he isn’t anywhere near as bad as Braun or Dunn in the outfield. Having seen him at LE this year I can say he will lose some value by playing the outfield defensively, but its not that bad, if he can keep his weight in check (aka listen to the organization diet plan for him) he can more then handle LF even in Petco. Comparatively I say he is a lot like Manny when he first came into the league (not the statue of the last few years), someone who can make some plays but have limited range, but solid for the balls he gets too. (And no before anyone makes the point I am not trying to say he will hit like Manny) Can he play the outfield and stay there, yes, is he going to be winning any gold gloves or fielding awards, no.

As for Kelly or Castro, my two cents is they have the same projection, whats the difference in ranking is merely subjective.

by AirmanSD on Dec 28, 2010 3:32 AM EST up reply actions  

at best Decker...

is Matt Stairs and that is in a dream scenario.

by Havok1517 on Dec 28, 2010 3:02 PM EST up reply actions  

stairs would sound awfully good to me

Career OPS of almost .840 despite playing well into his 40s, and a handful of truly awesome seasons.

I don’t think Stairs would be a “dream scenario”. One of the higher end outcomes to be sure, but Decker seems like a pretty good bat.

by mrkupe on Dec 28, 2010 6:23 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't think so...

Dude, sorry, but your opinion on Decker is based on your projection of body (which may very well be accurate) and not on facts… I’m not trying to pick on you (or anyone) and I won’t attack you, but just looking at the two players.

First, Matt Stairs has a career MLB slash line of .264/.357/.481 so "being Matt Stairs" isn’t the worst thing ever…

More importantly, Stairs has a career minor league slash-line of .293/.374/.453 and his best season (200+ at-bats at one level) was when he hit .333/.411/.509 with 13 HR as a 23 year-old in AA). Conversely, Decker won the MVP as a 19 year-old in the Midwest League (his 2nd MVP) with a slash-line of .299/.442/.514. He has a career minor league slash-line of .295/.435/.510… It’s quite disingenuous to suggest that Decker "in a dream scenario" would top out as Matt Stairs. Now make no mistake, if Jaff Decker turns out to be Matt Stairs, or have a "Matt Stairs" career (265 HR, 897 RBI, etc.) I would call that a success, however, Decker does have a higher ceiling.

-peter

by PeterF on Dec 28, 2010 6:40 PM EST up reply actions  

I agree...

if Decker becomes Matt Stairs, I would call that a monumental success.

by Havok1517 on Dec 29, 2010 7:44 AM EST up reply actions  

If we're only going to throw out random fat guy comps

Can I call him Greg Luzinski? Early in his career (when he looked an awful lot like Jaff did in Ft. Wayne), he was an EXCEPTIONALLY good hitter while playing serviceable OF defense in the majors. Then he let his inner Jabba-the-Hutt take over, had a miserable year in which he was a part-time guy, and was forced to turn into merely a DH-only guy for a few years. About the time his waist became equivalent to the diameter of old Commiskey, he was out of the game by 33.

(And no, I don’t really think Decker has three 150+OPS seasons in him, but if your only knock against him is the supposition that he’s going to be a lardass in seven years, it doesn’t preclude him from being a VERY valuable player.)

by realitypolice on Dec 28, 2010 7:21 PM EST up reply actions  

Also out there for positive portly prognostications...

Jeff Burroughs – another HS pick from out west, he was another guy who was a monster prior to turning 27, then progressed from “husky” to “why does Merlin Olsen have a 1984 Topps baseball card?” before blowing out of the game at age 33.

That pudgy Dominican kid the Indians traded to L.A. became a real offensive force with a good eye. When he turned 27, he used all his new-found “lower-body leverage” to spike up the power numbers and become Pedro Guerrero, fearsome hitter. Then all that weight caught up with him, nobody could justify him occupying any spot on the defensive spectrum, and he was done as a useful ballplayer by 34.

And of course, the comp that I think makes the most sense given the organization, is the S.S. Kruk, which was quite a handy ballplayer before hitting something in the Long Island Sound and eventually washing up on shore in Bristol. (I know, Bristol’s not near the water… go with it though)

by realitypolice on Dec 28, 2010 9:37 PM EST up reply actions  

At best

Decker out produces every bat still in the minors. At worst he’s the later year’s Matt Stairs. Don’t be dumb.

by johnnycomelately9 on Dec 30, 2010 9:34 AM EST up reply actions  

no at worst

he crashes and burns while never making the majors.

by Havok1517 on Dec 31, 2010 12:40 AM EST up reply actions  

Is it my imagination

Or is the gap between #15 and #25 on the Padres’ list much narrower than it is for many clubs?

by realitypolice on Dec 28, 2010 11:31 AM EST reply actions  

Yeah. This system seems pretty deep. If a few of these players start to show more of their potential/break the right way I don’t think I be wrong to say that this would be a top 7 system come next year.

by polyrhythm07 on Dec 28, 2010 1:04 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Yeah...

As I was doing my top 30 (link is above somewhere) I was thinking the same thing. There are guys in the late-teens, early 20’s who could be top 5 guys within a year or two..

-peter

by PeterF on Dec 28, 2010 6:43 PM EST up reply actions  

Depth

Everything I’ve read / seen shows depth as the best strength of the system. It’s not sexy, and I question the value of a plethora of potential utility guys in a system, which explains the lack of attention paid to the system as whole.

by Melvin Nieves on Dec 30, 2010 1:25 AM EST up reply actions  

Attention...

I think the lack of attention has more to do with corresponding factors that lead to the Padres ranking near the bottom of revenue producers:

Despite hailing from America’s 7th (8th?) largest city, the Padres are in the 26th largest media market.
Despite the population, SD is home to the fewest HQ’s of fortune 500 companies.
We are land-locked by Mexico, Los Angeles, and a desert (and Midwestern transpants to Arizona) which makes gaining new fans difficult.

But yes, the system is deep.

I would argue that there are a lot more than a “plethora of potential utility guys” tho… And regarding that remark, I specifically think TB got a steal when they acquired Cole Figueroa in the Bartlett deal…

-peter

by PeterF on Dec 30, 2010 2:58 AM EST up reply actions  

More Narrow.

The pads probably have the best 15-25 but now best top 10. IMO it’s a top 7 system right now. If things go right in 11 I think it can shoot to number 1! KC should graduate a few players.

by johnnycomelately9 on Dec 30, 2010 9:35 AM EST up reply actions  

Conversely...

…The Padres shouldn’t graduate many and they have like 5 or 6 picks in first & first-sup rounds…

-peter

by PeterF on Dec 30, 2010 3:33 PM EST up reply actions  

Am I crazy...

or do the Mets get no love from anyone?

Mejia is a year ahead of Kelly, outpreformed him at every level. Mejia even did fairly well in AA as a 19 year old, where Kelly bombed at 20. Mejia even posted a better FIP. Despite the abysmal decision to throw him into the MLB pen, he was dominant in the minors as a starter. As for the injuries, none of them have been arm related. In my view, Mejia is a grade ahead of Kelley.

Now, Fuentes/Puello comp. They’re nearly identical. Same age, played the same levels, and very comperable stats. Similar scouting reports, but Puello has a bigger frame, and I’ve heard more scouts projecting him for some power. Fuentes is a B-, while “something holds you back” from giving Puello the same grade. Personally, Puello is a straight B, not a C+.

Also, in a year where grades are “tougher”… Look at Rizzo’s platoon splits. Even if he’s a few years younger, he’s a couple steps behind where Ike Davis was last year and got the same grade.

by Ambient on Dec 28, 2010 2:26 PM EST reply actions  

yes

Well, actually, I don’t know if you’re crazy. But I don’t think you’re right.

While I like Mejia slightly better than Kelly, John gave you his answer on why he downgrades Mejia… the injuries. You may be right not to be as worried about them as John is, but it seems that attributing the downgrade to Mejia being in the Mets organization is a stretch.

More broadly, at least in this post, it reads that you’re relying heavily on the stats sheets for your evaluation. As so many around here say, prospect evaluation is about much more than past performance…

Fuentes is a CF, Puello isn’t. Even if you’re right that their ultimate profile is similar – and I don’t think they are – Fuentes should be a step above based on the defensive value alone. Name me all the every day RF in the game with below-average power.

Comparing a HS draftee and a polished college draftee after two full minor league seasons is a poor idea. Doing it while ignoring the significant difference in power tools at a position that demands power is odd.

by realitypolice on Dec 28, 2010 3:02 PM EST up reply actions  

"wave"

Jed keeps talking about getting a continuous ‘wave’ of prospects reaching the majors – preferably 2-3 a year. any evidence the farm has improved enough in terms of drafting, or can we think of the adrian trade as part of a systemic strategy to populate the mid-higher parts of the system with more likely to hit the majors prospects in order to augment the drafting effort?

by sandiego3131 on Dec 29, 2010 5:45 AM EST reply actions  

It’s pretty hard to evaluate systemic strategic change with a sample size of one year…

by realitypolice on Dec 29, 2010 6:56 AM EST up reply actions  

Not really because it's the same plan

Depo just left to rejoin with Sandy but the philosophy is the same. All the guys Fuson drafted are about to make their way to the bigs. They picked up and added prospects through the Peavy trade, and now they added better one’s in the Agon trade. They also have their Dominican Academy running smoothly and the guy Alderson had over international player is now the Scouting director. I think for the last 5 year’s the pads focus has been on cutting payroll and creating waves for the future. Depo said this in his dead blog at the start of 2009. I’m sure you can look up the plan their if you want.

by johnnycomelately9 on Dec 30, 2010 9:40 AM EST reply actions  

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