Goldstein's PIT TOP 20
by rdf8585 on Nov 8, 2010 3:33 AM EST
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System In 20 Words Or Less: The 2010 draft and one international signee transforms the system with a trio of ultra-high ceiling teenage arms.
Five-Star Prospects
1. James Taillon, RHP
2. Stetson Allie, RHP
Four-Star Prospects
3. Luis Heredia, LHP
4. Tony Sanchez, C
Three-Star Prospects
5. Rudy Owens, LHP
6. Bryan Morris, RHP
7. Starling Marte, OF
8. Jeff Locke, LHP
9. Diego Moreno, RHP
Two-Star Prospects
10. Colton Cain, LHP
11. Zack Von Rosenberg, RHP
Nine More:
12. Mel Rojas, Jr., OF: This third-round pick is a big, athletic switch-hitter with plus speed and some power potential, but is very raw.
13. Zack Dodson, LHP: He's a lefty who has potential for three solid offerings, but projects as back-end starter.
14. Alex Presley, OF: Presley is a diminutive outfielder who can hit, but he doesn't profile well for a corner due to a lack of power.
15. Gorkys Hernandez, OF: He's one of the best defensive outfielders in the minors, but will he ever hit?
16. Chase D'Arnaud, SS: D'Arnaud collapsed at Double-A in 2011, but he still offers a decent approach and speed.
17. Andrew Lambo, OF: This former Dodgers prospect has seen his stock fall due to poor performances and drug suspensions. The Pirates believe in the bat, and a good showing so far in the Arizona Fall League is creating optimism.
18. Nick Kingham, RHP: This 2010 fourth-rounder is big and projectable, but he's more of a thrower than a pitcher for now.
19. Josh Harrison, INF: An ex-Cubs prospect, Harrison can put a bat on the ball, but like Presley, he's tiny and offers few secondary skills.
20. Quincy Latimore, OF: He's a compact athlete who had minor a breakout year with 19 home runs and 100 RBI
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Looks like he's a fan of Owens
who seems like an atypical KG pick. I wonder what his rationale is for putting him above Morris and Marte, who seem more up KG’s alley. Too bad I let my BP subscription run out last month, I’ll have to wait a few months to see the blurbs.
ZVR
I thought Von Rosenberg would be more in the 5-7 range.
This franchise will again hinge on whether their high ceiling SP prospects pan out. I can only imagine that Pittsburgh fans are holding out great hope that these top 3 become fixtures in their rotation in the next few years.
The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.
zvr
Is one of my favorites in this system….the guy seems to just know how to pitch and looks more mature than his age. I’m very curios to see how he does in a full season league…
by logstx on Nov 8, 2010 7:04 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I thought
a two star rating for ZVR seemed a little light, struck me more as a three star guy. I guess it makes sense to wait until he perfoms in Double-A, a la Owens/Morris/Locke, before affording him that rank.
Per the Owens ranking, Goldstein was one of the guys reporting improved velo for Owens IIRC. Low-90s velo in addition to a great change and extremely good command may have made the difference.
by blackoutyears on Nov 9, 2010 12:01 PM EST up reply actions
Really don't like Heredia being that high
But that’s to be expected I guess.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
KG takes "limitless ceiling" seriously.
And until anyone’s actually played in affiliated ball, he’s pretty quick to assign the “limitless ceiling” label to these young kids.
You can disagree with it (which I do), but at least we know where it comes from.
the $2.6 million bonus
assigns limitless ceiling…the pirates and other teams gunning for Heredia werent willing to give him that much money if they felt that his ceiling was a back of the rotation guy
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Nov 8, 2010 2:14 PM EST up reply actions
IFA Bonuses are not the same as draft bonuses
The fact that IFA bonuses are so low should show how risky the investment is. If he turns into a back of the rotation arm, $2.6M is still a bargain.
I really think it is best to be cautious with IFAs until they play some state-side baseball and scouts get more looks than just what they saw during individual workouts.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
i agree...
but there’s no way that pittsburgh or the other teams bidding on him see that as his ceiling. So, what i was saying was that Goldstein isnt alone in thinking that he’s got a pretty crazy high ceiling…and thats what Goldstein tends to like.
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Nov 8, 2010 2:38 PM EST up reply actions
the way i see it...
his heredia ranking is more conservative than ranking Allie as a five star while pointing out his lack of control and complete lack of an off speed pitch
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Nov 8, 2010 2:40 PM EST up reply actions
In the prospecting world
Fastball velocity defines ceiling.
by Daniel Berlyn on Nov 8, 2010 3:18 PM EST up reply actions
We know a lot more about Allie though
Like I said, I’m not surprised at where Heredia is, I just dislike putting him ahead of Tony Sanchez and calling him a top 100 prospect.
With Allie, we already know that he has elite velocity and an excellent slider that he holds deep into games. Heredia is mostly projection right now.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
goldsteins report says he has no offspeed pitch to speak of
The Bad: Allie’s track record of throwing strikes consistently for a four-week period leading up to the draft. He pitched just 15 innings as a junior, and was often wild to the point of being undraftable. He’s often guilty of overthrowing, and many believe his complicated mechanics need considerable tinkering. Primarily a power-hitting third baseman on the showcase circuit, he’s rarely pitched against top competition and does not have an off-speed pitch in his arsenal, leaving some to already project him as a future reliever.
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Nov 8, 2010 5:44 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, he needs to develop a changeup, but that's not rare for a HS pitcher
His fastball and slider still have the potential to be elite.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
no doubt....
my point was just that i didnt get why people were confused by Heredia’s ranking but not by Allie’s, which going off of Goldstein’s report, seems much more aggressive. I dont doubt that they both have TOR potential, but they both are very much longshots.
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Nov 8, 2010 6:32 PM EST up reply actions
We seem to be going in circles
I’m significantly more skeptical of IFAs than I am HS players. I am not surprised that Heredia was place that high, I just disagree with it.
With Heredia, we’re relying on projection, while, with Allie, his huge fastball and plus slider makes it easy to see him being at least a bullpen ace. If he can develop an average off-speed pitch to go with those two pitches, and continue to develop his control, we’re looking at an ace. With Heredia, we just have no idea what his stuff is going to look like in 2-3 years.
I have Allie down as a B prospect, I’m not sure if that will be good enough to make my top 50 or not yet.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
you're probably right....
im just puzzled about this plus slider….goldstein specifically says he’s got no off speed pitch to speak of…slider is never mentioned. If he indeed does have a plus slider, then I have no problem with him above Heredia. Do you/goldstein not consider a slider an off speed pitch?
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Nov 8, 2010 6:54 PM EST up reply actions
Look in the good section:
His breaking ball is a 83-87 mph slider that flashes plus at times
Additional information:
In his mock draft he said:
Allie has better raw stuff than anyone in this draft, even Taillon, as he’s been consistently touching 98-99 mph with his fastball and showcasing a wipeout upper-80s slider.
BA said:
Based on his mid-90s fastball and hard slider, Allie entered 2010 as a likely first-round pick, but he had a reputation as more thrower than pitcher. He took a significant step forward in May, dialing his heater up to 98-99 mph and his slider up to 88-89 while showing more polish than ever before in consecutive starts, giving him a chance to go in the top 10 picks.
Andy Seiler said:
On the mound, he features a plus-plus fastball that routinely sits in the mid-90s and has touched triple digits a few times. It’s truly a special pitch, and even though it isn’t known for any amount of movement, it’s still unhittable to the vast majority of hitters he’s ever faced. Combined with a plus high-80s to low-90s slider, Allie can simply be unhittable at times. He has not had much use for a changeup yet, and there’s no rush for it either because he can develop as a closer in a fairly short amount of time
http://bullpenbanter.com/
haha your funny
you dont like heredia that high, but your ready to put cowart top 2? lol
If you didn't know by now, my screen name is sarcastic
Why would you put Cowart so high and not Heredia??
Doesnt make sense at aaaaaaaaaaall
If you didn't know by now, my screen name is sarcastic
They're nothing alike
I still do not see any connection at all between the two. On top of that, they’re in different systems.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
In his discussion of top talents 25 & under
Tabata makes the list despite the fact that nobody believes his age. He’s similar to Marte in that his swing is all hands, and with little to no power or walks, even with a .300 average he doesn’t fit well in a corner.
I’m sure his defenders will still be banging this drum when he’s listed as 32 years old with 75 career HRs, though.
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allie at 5 stars is probably too high for me
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
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could you go 4 and a half though?
i def. can see 5 stars as too high (40-55 , top 60 overall is too much)
but he is a very solid 4 star at the very least,,,,
I called it - Joe Mauer's first career Home-Run at Target Field !!!
Why Oh Why did the D'Backs select A.J. Pollock over Mike Trout?
I hate Hunter Wendelstedt, you hate Hunter Wendelstedt we all hate hunter w
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Nov 8, 2010 5:52 PM EST up reply actions
I don't know if I'd go 4
His floor is too low even if healthy—far too easy to envision a scenario where he winds up in the bullpen—and I tend to think he’s at a much greater injury risk than your average projectable high school arm. Him throwing that hard at such a young age makes me very nervous.
You can’t rank on upside alone… have to factor in floor and injury risk and even makeup (to a certain extent) as well.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
Allie
is incredibly hard to project. He was getting Bobby Jenks comps leading up to the draft from those who see him as a reliever. I’m actually getting a bit of a Felipe Paulino vibe off him. Plus FB with average (or worse) movement, flashes a plus breaking ball, change in progress. I think Allie’s present stuff is better, and I’m hoping the reports of his improvements in command are borne out in the minors, but I’m wondering…
by blackoutyears on Nov 9, 2010 12:11 PM EST up reply actions
I can see some Felipe Paulino in the current stuff
Hopefully Allie can prove healthier.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
Hopefully Allie can prove healthier.
To say the least. I think he’ll be established in the majors (one way or another) sooner than FP was. Paulino is an enigma. Such promising stuff, such poor results. It was especially bizarre that he drastically cut his home runs allowed this year (4 in 91.2 IP) and still posted a horrendous ERA. T least his FIP was respectable… lol
by blackoutyears on Nov 10, 2010 7:50 PM EST up reply actions
He pitched pretty well when I saw him this year
The mid season injury was disappointing as he seemed to be making progress this year.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
Honestly
He’s pitched well almost every time I’ve seen him the last two yerars. Then I look at his results. lol
by blackoutyears on Nov 10, 2010 8:16 PM EST up reply actions
indeed
I honestly don’t get why analysts keep talking up the “a team could move him to the pen and get him to the majors in a couple of years” angle, though. It didn’t make sense before the draft, let alone now. Allie wasn’t going to sign for less than $2M and at that cost, no team was going to take a prep player with the anticipated ceiling of major league reliever, even a very good one. He’d have to be either truly horrendous for a couple of years in a row or suffer a serious injury for a move to happen within the foreeseeable future . . .
great point, I didn't notice that
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That was my thinking as well.
but I figured I probably just needed to take another look at him. Haven’t read up on him for awhile.
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Pittsburgh are you ready for patience?
This is the most talented the system has been in 20 years. But its almost all under 20. (The most talented ones at least)
I guess if you’ve waited this long, whats another 4 years?
20 years of age* That could get a little confusing.
by Kenneth Arthur on Nov 8, 2010 7:00 PM EST up reply actions
So its the....
most talented system the Pirates have had since before most of the guys on it were born?
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
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