The Top 25 Hitters under 25...now and in 2015
by Matt Garrioch on Nov 4, 2010 1:41 AM EDT
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PrintI posted this over at MLB Bonus Baby, but I don't know how many of you read over there as well.
I know there have been lists posted about the top 25 under 25 right now. It’s tough to agree on and there is no right answer, it’s just a compilation of names of players that are really good. If you do this at the start of the year and at the end of the year, players will have risen and fallen. Some will be added, some will be removed but most of the same players will be included. This is what I have right now.
1. Evan Longoria , 3B , TB
2. Jason Heyward , RF , ATL
3. Justin Upton , RF , ARI
4. Andrew McCutchen , CF , PIT
5. Troy Tulowitzki , SS , COL
6. Carlos Gonzalez , LF , COL
7. Jesus Montero , C , NYY
8. Buster Posey , C , SF
9. Mike Trout , OF , LAA
10. Michael Stanton , RF , FLA
11. Bryce Harper , OF , WSH
12. Matt Wieters , C , BAL
13. Mike Moustakas , 3B , KC
14. Carlos Santana , C , CLE
15. Colby Rasmus , CF , STL
16. Billy Butler , 1B , KC
17. Dustin Ackley , 2B , SEA
18. Eric Hosmer , 1B , KC
19. Wil Myers , C , KC
20. Domonic Brown , OF , PHI
21. Manny Machado , SS , BAL
22. Pedro Alvarez , 3B , PIT
23. Starlin Castro , SS , CHC
24. Jay Bruce , RF , CIN
25. Freddie Freeman , 1B , ATL
With this list there is still a lot of projection. A lot of these players are still in their formative years as MLB players and many are just starting to show their potential in the minors. #17, Dustin Ackley, has struggled in his pro debut. The conversion to 2B has caused him to hit less than he should, but he was still promoted to AAA by Seattle and did well in after his poor April start and is hitting well in the Arizona Fall League currently. No one is sure if he will succeed or not, but I still think he's one of the best young players in baseball.
As hard as the current top 25 list is to compile, the top 25 for 2015 is tougher. This is sheer projection and if I get 5 from each right, I will be happy, but I hope for better. My guess here is that there will be 6 or 7 players on each list that will be drafted and signed in 2013 and 2014 and I don’t have a lot of names for that far out. I’ve seen some video of guys out that far, but it is a total reach to name those guys. I went with guys that are recent draft picks instead. I like to inform my readers of names to watch for and this is one way I can do it. These are the guys that I think could be the best of the best up and coming players. You have probably heard of many of these guys, but this is how I project them to be in 5 years.
1. Anthony Rendon, 3B, Rice University
Where he came from: Rendon will play the 2011 season at Rice University and will likely be the 1st overall pick in the 2011 draft by the Pirates.
Why he’s here: Rendon has huge power and that is what sets him apart. His numbers at Rice have been elite and I can only see that continuing.
Where he’s headed: Rendon will debut in 2013 in the Majors and make his mark with the Pirates, I assume, sending Pedro Alvarez to 1B. Rendon will stick at 3B and be the next stud 3B after Evan Longoria. He has solid tools all around. He could hit .300 with 25-30 HR's and be an impact bat.
2. Jesus Montero, C/1B, NYY
Where he came from: Montero was signed out of Venezuela in 2006 for $1.65 million.
Why he’s here: Montero has great contact ability and great power. He started slowly this year but still hit 21 HR's as a 20 Year old in AAA. He had a slash line of .289/.353/.517 and that would be stunning, even for the Pacific Coast League.
Where he’s headed: Montero is a future 1B or DH in the long run and will debut in 2011. He will be one of the best hitters in the majors for years to come. He could hit .320 and hit 40 HR's at his peak.
3. Mike Trout, CF, LAA
Where he came from: Trout was a 1st round draft pick, 25th overall in 2009 out of high school in New Jersey.
Why he’s here: Trout has the physical ability to be a Hall of Fame type talent. His current skills show that he could reach that ceiling. He hit .362/.454/.526 in the MWL before being promoted to the California League and holding his own as an 18 year old.
Where he’s headed: Trout will debut in CF for the Angels in 2011 and be a star. He can hit, run and play defense. He will be one of the most exciting players in the league when he gets there. He could be a .300+ hitter with 20 HR's and 40 SB as a gold glove caliber CF.
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Do you guys think Trout will be ready for full time in 2011?
I think late 2011 is when he tastes the bigs, and 2012 when he starts. ROY for 2012!!!!!!!!!!
If you didn't know by now, my screen name is sarcastic
I think he will be ready in 2012 because he'll be 20, and if Heyward and Castro can do it, think Trout will be able to
If you didn't know by now, my screen name is sarcastic
I think he'll come up in May 2012
Maybe he’ll get a September call-up this year if he thrives in Double-A, but I think his ETA doesn’t really come until 2012, and presumably LA will want to hold back his free agency by keeping him down until May. Unless there’s a gaping hole in the outfield, and center should be okay with Bourjos, they can take some time with Trout.
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by Satchel Price on Nov 4, 2010 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions
This makes sense
No reason to rush him, both in terms of readiness and fiscal sanity.
When you're drowning, you don't say 'I would be incredibly pleased if someone would have the foresight to notice me drowning and come and help me,' you just scream.
I don't think they should rush him
but I think he’ll at least get a September call-up. I keep hearing how much Scoscia loves him and he might get an itch to promote him. Just a feeling based on what I’ve read, not what is best for him in the long run.
http://milbprospects.blogspot.com/
by Matt Garrioch on Nov 4, 2010 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Trout does not have nearly the power of Heyward
He is good but nowhere close to Heyward level.
by King Billy Royal on Nov 5, 2010 2:56 AM EDT up reply actions
How?
in the world will would any prospect (Trout, Montero) be better than an actual major league player on the verge of stardom (Stanton) NOW? Maybe in 2015 possibly, but no way right now.
Projection...
Using that logic, no one is worth looking at until they make it to the majors and I just can’t do that.
http://milbprospects.blogspot.com/
by Matt Garrioch on Nov 4, 2010 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions
I used the cut off
of 25.49 or younger on 4-1-10. He was 25.49 on April 1st.
http://milbprospects.blogspot.com/
by Matt Garrioch on Nov 4, 2010 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions
No way Rasmus, Ackley, Hosmer, Butler, or Brown are higher than Bruce.
Bruce will be an all-star within the next two seasons. I’m not sure any of the aforementioned will ever be.
Honest question, not being snarky (and full disclosure, I'm a Cards fan and love Rasmus)
What’s the current argument that Bruce is a better hitter than Rasmus? I’m guessing breaking into the majors sooner and having a better minor league pedigree? I was actually surprised by how similar their 2010 lines look, with Rasmus’ maybe being a tad better (probably up for debate).
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Even as a Cubs fan...
Gotta agree with bobo here – I think Bruce puts up great power numbers and solid numbers elsewhere, but Rasmus will be the better overall player.
He was talking about them as hitters; I think that most would put Rasmus ahead of Bruce after factoring in defense/position
But I do think it’s worth noting that Bruce already has superior contact ability, and there’s some reason to believe that he’ll improve moreso than Rasmus.
Bruce obviously has to be a significantly better hitter than Rasmus in order to be a better player, but I think there are people that believe that he’ll reach that upside. He certainly showed how good he could be with his play down the stretch: .377/.459/.798 with 15 homers in 133 PA over the final 37 games.
Baseball is my preferred sport. It should be yours, too.
I'm an editor for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
by Satchel Price on Nov 4, 2010 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions
If we are only talking about them as hitters, I'm not sure Longoria would be #1.
Don’t get me wrong, I love me some Longoria hitting and I would agree with him as #1 from an overall standpoint, but that’s because he’s also a stellar defensive third baseman. That’s why he’s perhaps the best commodity in baseball. But if I only had 1 guy under 25 to step up to the plate with the bases loaded in game 7 of the World Series, I’d go with Heyward.
by Kenneth Arthur on Nov 4, 2010 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh, I totally agree
I’m just saying that mattybobo asked why some view Bruce as a better hitter than Rasmus, and so I responded.
I think we’re in agreement here.
Baseball is my preferred sport. It should be yours, too.
I'm an editor for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
by Satchel Price on Nov 4, 2010 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh yeah, I know - for sure. I was just rolling with what you said about only evaluating them as hitters.
by Kenneth Arthur on Nov 4, 2010 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions
I was assuming we were only talking offense as well
It can be confusing, because sometimes people use the term “hitters” merely to distinguish position players from pitchers.
I could definitely buy Rasmus being a better overall player than Bruce, and I can also buy Bruce perhaps being a better hitter than Rasmus.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Defense
Is their defensive value really that different? Bruce was worth more defensively this season including positional adjustments (I think). I know uzr over a season isn’t great but Bruce is a well above avg defender in RF
by i r noobie on Nov 4, 2010 1:22 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
But Rasmus has a good defensive rep, too
Bruce is definitely a plus defender, but I doubt that he’s +20 good.
If you say that Rasmus is a +5 defender in center and Bruce is a +15 defender in right, then they’re essentially even in terms of defensive value. But is Bruce really that good? And what about Rasmus?
Realistically, I think it’s closer than when you just assume that Rasmus is more valuable defensively because he’s in center, but I still think he slips ahead. With that said, Bruce is a fantastic defensive RF, though.
Baseball is my preferred sport. It should be yours, too.
I'm an editor for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
by Satchel Price on Nov 4, 2010 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions
side note
Starliin is actually going to be younger than at least 1 guy on the 2015 list (Jaff Decker). Too lazy to go through the rest, although he’s only a few months older than Anthony Rendon.
I don't have a high
projection on Castro. I see him regressing quicker than most and potentially moving to 2B. I think he’s close to his peak right now.
http://milbprospects.blogspot.com/
by Matt Garrioch on Nov 4, 2010 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions
ah okay
I tend to think he’s about 5 years away from his peak right now, but if you think he’s at his peak and won’t stick at 2nd … I can understand that somewhat.
You think he's close to his peak at age 20?
Who the hell peaks at 20?
Baseball is my preferred sport. It should be yours, too.
I'm an editor for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
by Satchel Price on Nov 4, 2010 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Close
means 2-2 years, probably. A lot of players peak at 22-23.
http://milbprospects.blogspot.com/
by Matt Garrioch on Nov 4, 2010 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Who the hell plays a full season at age 20?
I’d say you can make an argument that A-Rod peaked at 20.. but of course he won 3 MVP’s after that.
Some players do their best work in their first 2-3 years, and Elvis took a step back this season maybe.. but Castro’s bat has only just begun.
by Kenneth Arthur on Nov 4, 2010 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions
But generally, guys that do they best work in their first few years don't reach the majors at 20
They’re having their best years around 24-26, starting up at 24.
Baseball is my preferred sport. It should be yours, too.
I'm an editor for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
by Satchel Price on Nov 4, 2010 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions
That is true.
He’s just a guy I don’t see growing into a star. I think he’ll be a good player but not one of the top 25 under 25 in 5 years.
http://milbprospects.blogspot.com/
by Matt Garrioch on Nov 4, 2010 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Fair enough.
I mean, I disagree, but I don’t think it’s outrageous.
Baseball is my preferred sport. It should be yours, too.
I'm an editor for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
by Satchel Price on Nov 4, 2010 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, definitely the case. If you reach the majors at age 20, you're either in a horrible horrible system or you're probably really, really good.
I’m sure its happened once or twice.
by Kenneth Arthur on Nov 4, 2010 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions
haha..
I peaked at 17…
http://milbprospects.blogspot.com/
by Matt Garrioch on Nov 5, 2010 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions
What happens to Heyward between now and 2015?
Why does he fall off the list completely? I’d be surprised if he isn’t still one of the top young players in 2015.
Use 4-1-15
He’ll be 25.66 and I cut it off at 25.49.
http://milbprospects.blogspot.com/
by Matt Garrioch on Nov 4, 2010 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Interesting lists
Can you or anyone else provide some honorable mention’s for the current list? Guys that just missed?
Also, what is the criteria for the 2015 list. Do they have to still be under 25 in 2015?
"When the going gets tough, the tough get going."
Just a few, no order
Elvis Andrus , SS , TEX
Desmond Jennings , OF , TB
Delmon Young , LF , MIN
Adam Jones , CF , BAL
Gordon Beckham , 3B , CHW
Ian Stewart , 3B , COL
Pablo Sandoval , 3B , SF
Brett Lawrie , 2B , MIL
Lonnie Chisenhall , 3B , CLE
Matt Dominguez , 3B , FLA
Brett Jackson , OF , CHC
Fernando Martinez , OF , NYM
Travis Snider , LF , TOR
Dexter Fowler , CF , COL
Justin Smoak , 1B , SEA
Ike Davis , 1B , NYM
Ben Revere , OF , MIN
Jose Iglesias , SS , BOS
http://milbprospects.blogspot.com/
by Matt Garrioch on Nov 4, 2010 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions
He's a good MLB player
and will be for a while, but he’s not in the top tier.
http://milbprospects.blogspot.com/
by Matt Garrioch on Nov 4, 2010 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah,
I got that comment at MLB Bonus Baby as well and he just missed. I am a big fan of Snider and I didn’t want to use too much bias and place him too high. He could be as high as 17 if you wanted to be aggressive.
http://milbprospects.blogspot.com/
by Matt Garrioch on Nov 4, 2010 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions
IMHO
This is an awful list. Like reallllly bad.
Some really bad calls are (keeping it brief and going positionally for the most part and keep it to the names you have here)
Montero over Posey, Santana, Weiters – Its unjustifable to have a Part-Time Catcher/DH with a good bat over a Great Catcher with a good bat.
Trout, Stanton, Harper over Rasmus, Bruce – I really don’t understand this one either. Rasmus and Bruce are budding superstars who already have gone through early MLB struggles and have now turned a corner. The other three still are either far away, not nearly as proven, or equally or less talented.
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This is a prospect website.
Naturally, people are going to overrate prospects and lean best case scenario. I’m pretty sure 3-4 years ago, Rasmus and Bruce would be top 3 on a list like this.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
4 years ago
I would have had Bruce around 10th, just guessing and Rasmus may have been toward the bottom if not missing it. I missed on Rasmus. I thought he was over-hyped. I was wrong.
http://milbprospects.blogspot.com/
by Matt Garrioch on Nov 4, 2010 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Considering that 4 years ago, Bruce and Rasmus were pretty much number one and two on most prospect lists,
and considering that you’re a clear example of someone who overrates and lean best case scenario for top prospects….yeah I don’t believe you.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
wow, I admit I missed on
a really good prospect and I get called a liar…tough crowd.
http://milbprospects.blogspot.com/
by Matt Garrioch on Nov 4, 2010 6:57 PM EDT up reply actions
My apologies.
I didn’t mean to insinuate that you were a liar. I just meant that it’s hard to believe anyone having Bruce 10th, and Rasmus even lower back then, especially since you seem to be particularly ubiquitous in your preference for top prospects.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
That's ok
Bruce would be the most comparable to Trout. Trout is #9, so saying Bruce would have been #10 isn’t too far off and I prefer Trout to Bruce at the same developmental stage. I’m just guessing since I didn’t do one back then.
Looking at 2007 top prospects, I would have taken Cedric Hunter over Colby Rasmus. Yep, that’s me.
As for the preference of top prospects, I do think I project a lot. If I would use realistic percentages of sucess, there would hardly be any minor leaguers on this list, maybe a couple. That is a safe way to play it, but you’ll miss out a lot on the best players in the future.
http://milbprospects.blogspot.com/
by Matt Garrioch on Nov 4, 2010 9:09 PM EDT up reply actions
+1
Baseball is my preferred sport. It should be yours, too.
I'm an editor for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
by Satchel Price on Nov 4, 2010 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions
My ideas are different than many
and I’m fine with you thinking it’s bad. If Montero and Posey hit similarly in the majors, I agree, Posey should be much higher. I see Posey as a .280-.290 hitter with 20 HR power. Fantastic for a Catcher. I see Montero as a .300-.320 hitter with 35-40 HR power in the long run. Mike Piazza-like as a catcher, above average as a 1B, an elite MLB bat. Not an elite bat for a catcher It’s a high projection for Montero, but the projection for Posey, if done a year ago, may have been high as well. It hasn’t changed for me even given his early success. Santana and Wieters have good bats as well, but not MLB elite, just catching elite.
Do you disagree with the players on the list or just the order of placement?
http://milbprospects.blogspot.com/
by Matt Garrioch on Nov 4, 2010 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions
RE
First, I didn’t mean to come off like a dick, so sorry.
Um, I didn’t really think about outside names but I’ll brainstorm quickly and try make a list quickly. My opinion on lists in general is well documented on this site, without rationale, I really usually ignore them. I don’t care about the order, I care about what you just posted here, the evidence/support/believe for your arguments.
Quickly off the top of my head, my top 25 hitters who were 25 and under at the end of the 2010 season:
1. Longoria
2. Heyward
3. Gonzalez
4. Justin Upon
5. Bruce
6. Rasmus
7. Carlos Santana
8. Buster Posey
9. McCutchen
10. Mike Stanton
11. Matt Wieters
12. Logan Morrison
13. Domonic Brown
14. Mike Trout
15. Dustin Ackley
16. Jesus Montero
17. Gordon Beckham
18. Eric Hosmer
19. Pedro Alvarez
20. Travis Snider
21. Wil Myers
22. Desmond Jennings
23. Billy Butler
24. Bryce Harper
25. Delmon Young
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No
you didn’t come off as a dick at all. I respect your opinions and I was wondering if we are talking about an entirely different set of players or it’s just the order. Essentially, it’s order. When you say awful, I was expecting 10 different names, but we only have 4 differences that are close to equal value guys in my opinion.
You have Morrison, Beckham, Snider and Jennings, I have Freeman, Castro, Moustakas, Machado.
That’s a lot like what I said at the start. It’s a lot of the same guys, just the order is mixed up. It all depends on what you place value on.
http://milbprospects.blogspot.com/
by Matt Garrioch on Nov 4, 2010 7:20 PM EDT up reply actions
I like this list much better....
although, I’m not that high on Ackley. I’d take Alvarez, Montero, and Myers over him.
by wanderinredsfan on Nov 4, 2010 10:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Travis Snider
He should have made this list easy. He has a ton of raw power potential, and the ball just take’s off when he makes contact.
Posey over Montero
Delmon Young over Pedro Alvarez
and CarGO i like slightly better than McCutchen but Car Go hits in Coors so I have no problem with it…
I called it - Joe Mauer's first career Home-Run at Target Field !!!
Why Oh Why did the D'Backs select A.J. Pollock over Mike Trout?
I hate Hunter Wendelstedt, you hate Hunter Wendelstedt we all hate hunter w
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Nov 4, 2010 5:30 PM EDT reply actions
just pointing out that Cargo out REALLY lucky
He struck out 23% of the time and had a 384 BABIP… and played in Coors… his numbers are quite skewed
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Nov 4, 2010 9:28 PM EDT up reply actions
I think Freeman is pretty underrated
but I honestly dont get how people think a guy who hit .280 something in AAA will be a .320-.340 hitter in the bigs???
If you didn't know by now, my screen name is sarcastic
Because he was 20
and facing players that were 3-4 years older on average. There is a lot of growth there yet, potentially.
http://milbprospects.blogspot.com/
by Matt Garrioch on Nov 4, 2010 9:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Lies, Damn lies, and Statistics
Half of that .280-something in AAA was with a different batting stance, one that was forced on him by the AAA hitting coach and (obviously) sucked. After going back to his original stance, he hit the living shit out of the ball. That first half of the year, to me, can essentially be tossed out as an indicator for future performance because one of the factors (and maybe the most important) is no longer present. I’m not saying we can cherry-pick whatever we want for prospects, but I do think we can intelligently determine what elements of a performance matter and which can be discarded (like a different batting stance)
-1 and only member of the Nick Weglarz fan club!
Well said
statistics are only part of the analysis, if you are doing it right. But even keeping his horrible start in the discussion, he had a phenomenal year considering his age and level.
Some players have horrible season because they are working on developmental items. Some will say, if they are elite, they should still do well, even while they are learning, but I tend to give players that I believe in a little more leash in those terms.
http://milbprospects.blogspot.com/
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