RIP Yankees (1996-2010)
by slamcactus on Nov 2, 2010 12:19 PM EDT
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PrintIt was nice while it lasted right? What am I talking about? The ability of the New York Yankees to be competitive with the Tampa Bay Rays and the Boston Red Sox in what is known as the AL BEast division. This off-season the Yankees will be saying good-bye to several players that have made them the contenders that they were for the past few seasons. The likes of Javier Vazquez, Lance Berkman, likely Andy Pettite, and one of A.J. Burnett or Kerry Wood will no longer be in Yankees uniform for the 2011 season. These will create major holes on the team and it is quite possible that the shoes of the departed may never be filled. Sorry Yankees fans, the future does not look good.
If you think the Yankees will be active on the free agent market, forget it. Cliff Lee has already expressed a desire to return to the Rangers, Carl Crawford to the Angels is rumored to be all but a done deal, and the Yankees have to worry about signing two living NYC legends in Jeter and Rivera who are likely too old to warrant the contract extensions they will inevitably ink to help the team avoid a PR nightmare. Curtis Granderson (due a big raise) is a candidate to be traded, but who will replace his bat at the top and/or bottom of the lineup? Will the replacement be Derek Jeter? Who is the real Derek Jeter? After his horrible 2010 season, it really is difficult to expect a rebound to his 2009 form. I’m sure the Yankees fans will be hoping and praying though! Regardless of who bats at the top of the order, the Yankees have a vacant DH and two starting pitching positions to fill. Jesus Montero is expected to take over one of the spots. Despite his sub-par 2010 season, I still think he has a bright future. Will he replace what Lance Berkman and the hodgepodge of regulars who manned DH in ‘10 brought to the lineup? I don’t think so. So who takes over the remaining SP spots?
The Yankees infield will have a new, older look to it. Alex Rodriguez will be 35. Derek Jeter will be 37. Mark Teixiera will be 31. Jorje Posada will be 39. Robinson Cano is still in his peak years, but carrying the geriatrics to his left, right, and far right are pretty significant expectations to place on the kid. Since no amount of money will allow the Yankees to relegate these eight-figure contracts to the bench, I think the infield will be a major question for the Yankees moving forward.
Bottom line is that the window for the Yankees to be among the heavyweights in the division and contenders for the World Series is officially closed. It might be a long time before the Yankees even sniff 3rd place again in the AL East with the Blue Jays and Orioles on the rise. I really do feel bad for the passionate die-hard Yankees fans out there. I feel like they have been teased the past few seasons with one measley WS title in 10 years of outspending everyone, and now will have to go back to the losing ways of the Mattingly era. It truly is a sad story. I guess the light at the end of the tunnel is that the Yankees are only locked into Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixiera’s decline phases for another 7 years and $309 million. After that, they can think about starting to infuse some young talent back into the system.
<<<I'm sure most people will get it, but this is snark. Don't take any claims here too seriously. See this post for a reference point>>>
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I know you are trying to be funny but.......
You actually raise some good issues. The Yankees have a lot of key older players who have had father time catch up (Jeter, Posada). Also, the Yankees are going to have trouble signing Lee and Crawford with the newly rich Rangers after Lee and the Redsox hellbent on signing Crawford. Obviously they have the money to afford taking risks (The Pavano Experiment) but it is still interesting to see how they handle the aging roster. If Pettitte retires, and they don’t sign Lee, than the Yankees pitching could be Sabathia followed by 4 question marks.
I know you were doing this as satire but you actually raised some good points about the near future of the club. Good job and I enjoyed the read.
by King Billy Royal on Nov 2, 2010 12:24 PM EDT reply actions
Ha.
Not the first comment I was expecting. Thanks!
They do currently pay off the worst contract in baseball by a mile with Alex Rodriguez and certainly could be spending +150 million on bad players alone by 2014. It's quite hilarious to say the least.
by Kenneth Arthur on Nov 2, 2010 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions
it is impossible for the yankees to ever have the worst contract in baseball...
they have the financial might to not let it affect them. Wells in Toronto, Zito in SF, etc are far worse contacts. It hardly even affects the Yankees that in 2 years they’ll be paying $30 million for a DH.
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Nov 2, 2010 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions
It doesn't matter if they can afford it, he is still baseballs most overpaid player.
by Kenneth Arthur on Nov 3, 2010 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions
As of right now? A-Rod's is definitely the worst
Rodriguez: 6 years, $180M
Zito: 4 years, $83M
Wells: 4 years, $84M
Yeah, A-Rod is a far more valuable player, but neither Zito nor Wells is worthless and I think you could easily make up that difference in value with $100M over the next six years.
Baseball is my preferred sport. It should be yours, too.
I'm an editor for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
by Satchel Price on Nov 3, 2010 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions
Oh, and even if A-Rod actually does play well
The Yankees will have to pay an extra $30M or so for all of his HR milestones.
Baseball is my preferred sport. It should be yours, too.
I'm an editor for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
by Satchel Price on Nov 3, 2010 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions
does the arod contract inhibit the yankees from signing players?
i doubt it. i’d say those other contracts inhibit those teams from signing players (and, related to that, the players with those contracts are not very good and aren’t worth those contracts). that’s the test i use. ymmv.
I'm talking about these contracts in a vacuum
Obviously the Wells contract is going to hurt Toronto more than the A-Rod contract will hurt New York, but that’s really not because Wells’ contract is any worse, it’s because the Yankees can spend so much more than the Jays.
If you want to argue that the Wells contract is the worst in terms of damaging a team’s ability to win, I’m alright with that. But in terms of what the Yankees are paying and what they’re getting in return, A-Rod’s deal is probably the worst in baseball.
Baseball is my preferred sport. It should be yours, too.
I'm an editor for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
by Satchel Price on Nov 3, 2010 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Not necessarily.
You were talking about the worst contracts in baseball. Purely from a cost-return standpoint, Rodriguez is the worst. We’re just talking about definitions.
Baseball is my preferred sport. It should be yours, too.
I'm an editor for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
by Satchel Price on Nov 3, 2010 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions
thats my opinion as well
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Nov 3, 2010 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions
It's the Yankees money, but its still a waste.
Sure, Google can spend 200 million on a water cooler, but its still a waste of 200 million. It doesn’t hurt Google in terms of how much money they might make in a year, but maybe they should have bought a water cooler for $1000 and spent the rest on something more valuable.
The highest paid player in baseball is probably the 50th most valuable going forward.
by Kenneth Arthur on Nov 3, 2010 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions
and they did what it took to get the best available option
which he was at that point and likely will be for a few years.
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Nov 3, 2010 7:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Beltre is better than A-Rod now
Giving Rodriguez a ten-year, $275M deal was never something that other teams could match- they absolutely gave him more money than they needed to.
Baseball is my preferred sport. It should be yours, too.
I'm an editor for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
by Satchel Price on Nov 4, 2010 9:12 AM EDT up reply actions
The money may not matter...
but having an important position locked up for 7 more years does. We’re not there yet, but there will come a time when A-Rod is barely a league average third baseman. That time will come when stars like Ryan Zimmerman will be available to the highest bidder (2014).
The opportunity cost of locking A-Rod up through 2017 is at least as problematic for the Yankees as the cost.
Yeah, that's not happening.
A-Rod’s contract takes him through the age of 41. The Yankees would have to pick up something on the order of 80% of his salary to be able to move him that deep into his decline phase. He’s pretty much un-tradeable.
right. because the yankees couldn't afford it.
and i’m sure alex rodriguez’ decline phase is just going to be brutal.
arod will be a DH by then
and they’ll still be able to sign Zimm
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Nov 4, 2010 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions
All the Yankees did throughout the 2000's was spend, spend, spend and not win championships.
The ownership is stupid and Cashman is just a kid in a candy store. Imagine being 5 years old and your mom saying “Grab anything” when you go to a candy store or Toys R Us.
It FINALLY worked for them one time in 2009 and they won the World Series. But if they were both rich AND smart, they could have more rings and more money. They paid double what anyone else would have for A-Rod and without any reasoning other than it kept him from even looking elsewhere.
I would have let him look elsewhere, but that’s me.
by Kenneth Arthur on Nov 5, 2010 6:39 PM EDT up reply actions
The aging roster is only a concern...
If performance dips significantly. Other than Jeter they haven’t. And Jeter in 2010 was still like the 2nd most best shortstop in the AL.
World Series attitude, champagne bottle life, nothing every changes so tonight is like tomorrow night.
Really?
I’ll use OPS because it’s quick and dirty and more universally understood than wOBA and the difference isn’t all that great when we’re talking decline:
From 2009-2010
Teixiera: .948-.846
A-Rod: .933-.847
Posada: .885-.811
Jeter: .871-.710
That’s 102 points, 86 points, 64 points, and 161 points, respectively. As a group, those four hitters were worth 131.1 runs above average in 2009, and 58.7 runs above average in 2010. As a group, they ain’t gettin any younger, either.
To be fair...
offense was down in general last year, but offense wasn’t more than halved. That’s some serious decline.
seems like career average would more appropriate here, rather than simply noting a decline from the prior year.
they’re all off, but jeter is the only one off significantly from that.
Not really.
Career stats don’t really tell you anything. They include wonky things like a player’s age 23 debut, which means very little to the player he becomes in his prime.
A better comparison would be 3-year period prior to 2010 (that’s the data that projection systems use). A-Rod’s OPS during that time: .995. Teixiera’s: .957. Posada: .908. Jeter: .829.
If you compare 2010 to the three-year window leading up to it, Jeter’s decline is actually the only one that looks less extreme than if you just look at 2009.
you're the one who was using quick and dirty.
just taking your lead. these guys are all pretty old. for quick and dirty, i’m not concerned about including a 38 year old’s age 23 debut.
Yeah...
but you also get his 27-30 prime in the career #’s.
But anyways, whether you use career #s, 2007-2009, or 2009, all four guys declined considerably in ’10.
Also...
this was a parody. None of the things I wrote need to be true to get my point across :)
which should arguably be balanced by their pre-prime and post-prime.
hence average. it’s quick and dirty. they’re arguably paying for elite production. perhaps that’s the expectation they still have for all of them. i think it’s reasonable to use their career averages.
and i don’t think ten points of OPS+ is considerable or significant but that’s why one should use precise terms instead of those.
I don't really care...
I’ll just point out that not a single projection system agrees with you that career numbers have any predictive value.
and pointing out that career numbers don't have any predictive value doesn't have much to do with what we're talking about.
you know. since we’re not predicting performance but discussing past performance and a decline thereof.
This is a dumb argument.
Decline can be measured against previous year, previous few years, peak performance, or career numbers. Sudden declines tend to be most frequently compared against the previous year, because it’s easy and it defines the drop in value the team actually suffered from the decline.
Pick whatever metric you want. Under any of them, the Yankees old guys are declining.
He'll be even more better next year
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Beware the reverse jinx!
You’re taunting the baseball gods…
Eh,
I don’t really care who wins the AL East. I’m a Mariners and Giants fan. I hate the Angels, Rangers, and A’s far more than I hate the Yankees. Hell, I hope the Yankees DO get Lee and Crawford to keep them away from divisional rivals. The Rays were a plucky upstart team in 2008 that everyone loved to root for. Now, they’re just another really good baseball team.
LOL, theres no chance the Mariners even taste the playoffs again
If you didn't know by now, my screen name is sarcastic
There was NO chance...
the Giants would win the WS this year.
There’s no certainly two years out in baseball. None.
Who hates Angels?
Personally I hate the devil. ;)
by King Billy Royal on Nov 3, 2010 1:22 AM EDT up reply actions
how can you hate the Rangers?
They have never even won a playoff series till this year. Its like hating the Houston Texans.
by forloveofthegam3 on Nov 5, 2010 10:32 PM EDT up reply actions
THANK YOU
Your attempt to be Weird Al Yankovic not only recognizes my star power on this site, but also legitimizes it.
After all my hit posts, I am the Beatles of minorleagueball.
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
or is it the monkees?
"Quentin was unbelievable in right field for the Chicago White Sox." -Carl Ravech, Best of Baseball Tonight Web Gem Awards
RE: The Monkees
The group went on to sell 50 Million records worldwide.
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
dont forget they had a damn fine tv program
"Quentin was unbelievable in right field for the Chicago White Sox." -Carl Ravech, Best of Baseball Tonight Web Gem Awards
better than damn fine. i'd say ..
fantastic.
I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?
by the pinstripes on Nov 2, 2010 10:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Beatles not so much. Let's call it...
Kid Rock
The only people who really know where [the edge] is are the ones who have gone over it.
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Nov 4, 2010 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions
while trying to be snarky
you actually raise more valid points than that other guy did.
by TheBigOne on Nov 2, 2010 5:07 PM EDT reply actions 3 recs
My bad...
I tried to be just as unreasonable as Dewey. I guess it’s just not in my nature.
Strawman has a point
An author sets up a Strawman Political, or some other kind of straw-man argument. The author attempts to demolish said man of straw.
And then — later, thanks to Fridge Logic, or even right away — the reader realizes that the Strawman Has A Point; that is, the straw-man argument turns out to not be as weak as the author planned, sometimes to the point of being better than the “correct” argument. This may be caused by Authorial Myopia, Not Doing the Research, or just plain Bad Writing. It has also been known to result from Values Dissonance, in the case of works written in a culture/era different from that of the audience (e.g. “strawman” arguments against things like racism), or from the audience and the work falling at very different places on the Sliding Scale Of Idealism Versus Cynicism (see example from which the Ebert page quote was drawn, but also almost any instance where a work promotes love, faith, emotion, etc. over logic and depicts the logicians as “the bad guys”).
by Outshined_One on Nov 2, 2010 7:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Where did you hear Crawford to the Angels?
If it is true id die and go to heaven!!
If you didn't know by now, my screen name is sarcastic
I've heard it mentioned...
but I was overstating the importance of rumor for effect (much like Dewey said that the payroll thing was a foregone conclusion and that one of Shields or Garza would for sure be traded). I have no idea where Crawford or Lee will sign.
I've heard it mentioned as well.
I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?
by the pinstripes on Nov 2, 2010 10:38 PM EDT up reply actions
I think Burnett competes for the Cy Young next year.
This year was just fuckin weird for him…
AL East offseason is going to be absolutely ridiculous…There’s going to be at least 3 major moves involving big money or names.
Burnett
FUCKING SUCKS!
I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?
by the pinstripes on Nov 2, 2010 10:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Tell us how you really feel pinstripes!!!
You almost ready to get started on the Prospect List again buddy?!!!!!!!
by King Billy Royal on Nov 2, 2010 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions
yes, let me know when you want to get it started.
I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?
by the pinstripes on Nov 3, 2010 10:05 AM EDT up reply actions
The Yankees suck dude, the only reason theyll make the playoffs next year is because the Rays lose Crawford
If you didn't know by now, my screen name is sarcastic
so .....
the yankees suck so bad you have them making the playoffs?
I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?
by the pinstripes on Nov 3, 2010 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions
i mean
they won the world series last year and made the ALCS this year, can they really be that overrated?
They rely on CC Sabathia, and when he pitches badly, they tend to lose
If you didn't know by now, my screen name is sarcastic
Interesting
Especially seeing as CC didn’t get a single win in the 2009 World Series that the Yankees won. Don’t let facts get in your way, though!
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
Honestly, I couldn't tell convincingly if this was satire/sarcasm or not. Well done!
In my defense, I had never seen the post you were referencing. If I had, the way you absolutely mirrored it would have made it obvious.
And, as many others have stated, it’s not like many of your points aren’t true. It’ll be interesting to see how it all unfolds.
As a side note, I always wonder how Blue Jays fans feel about this kind of thing.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
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