San Francisco Giants Top 20 Prospects for 2011

You have Brown, Culberson, and Flores much higher than I do. I also would have Rosin ahead of Main and Gillaspie ahead of Dominguez.

Hector Sanchez is also in my top 15

Kind of a disappointing year for the Giants farm system overall, but the list doesn’t look as bad as I was expecting (thanks mostly to Mr. Belt.)

Maybe I’ve just been swayed by Fla-Giant, but I think I’d have Chuckie Jones in the bottom part of my top 20.

The dude was way too old for his league last year and still didn’t hit, not to mention being a defensive liability. I see the potential, and he could become a great power hitter, but there isn’t ANYTHING going right for him and he’s only in Low-A, so I find it hard to believe that things will go better as he moves up the ladder. Kieschnick, Cavan, Bond, Rosin, Gillaspie, Jones, Sanchez, Stoffel, and Tanner are all higher than him IMO.

Other than that, I like the list. Sanchez, Bond, and Stoffel would probably bump Casilla (love the stuff and results, but he’s already a reliever only in Augusta and he doesn’t get enough K’s), Adrianza (absolutely do not believe in the bat), and Dominguez (for reasons already given).

Et tu John? At this point I agree with others that he’s likely to develop into a 4th OF, doubtful that he turns into anything more and if you’re going to include someone like Neal based on one good year in high-A ball along with speculation and conjecture than Chuckie Jones and his light-tower power for a teenager belongs in the top 20.

I agree with your take on Culberson, even in the pitching thin AFL his performance has been noteworthy, and Richmond will be a good test for him. His glove remains a question-mark, but I think this is a good bell-weather season for a guy that could go either way.

I think you need to show some more love for Hembree and Rosin. Granted, Hembree’s numbers are from a league that doesn’t fit his age, but they’re still stellar and I think Rosin has all the marks of someone who winds up being a steal (big innings eating type frame, live fastball and height that he doesn’t fully use to his advantage. ) since the Giants have had great success helping pitchers develop secondary pitches which is what Rosin is in need of.

All, in all though it’s a tough group to rank because one you get past Belt and Wheeler there’s more questions than answers and a lot of guys who could go either way.

I took some heat for ranking him the 2nd best 1B prospect but I am glad I did!!!! This kid is a great athlete with a huge stick and could become a hitter in the mold of Derek Lee.

John, do you have an opinion on Rodriguez?

Surprised Stoffel didn’t crack your Top 20.

He definitely had some command issues in 2010 (as evidenced by the 4.80 ERA and the .392 BABIP against). But I still like this kid. He’s only 22 and in 50.2 IP this past year, struck out 66 (11.7 K/9) against just 24 walks (2.75 K/BB). Power arm with the same body build as Cain (but obviously not the horse Cain is). Hits 94 on the gun and his breaking ball (which he is still mastering) was hitting 80-81 in San Jose.

saying Culberson’s glove has gotten mixed reviews sounds generous.

about 20% of these names being alliterative?

I’d expect at least a B ranking for Jerry Sands. Possibly B+, but that may be a tad optimistic.

Like the inclusion fo Ehire Adrianza and Charles Culberson in your Top 10. Would have thought Seth Rosin would have cracked the Top 20. Big strong kid with some velocity who throws strikes. Can see a little Cainer in him.

HUGE year ahead for Chris Dominguez. Should be able to smash 30 dingers in Cal league. Ryan Verdugo is an interesting pitcher to follow. Will the organization convert Verdugo to a starter?

We just finalized the Top 50, and boy….we have a different list.

I have to admit, the inclusion of Ehire Adrianza and Jarrett Parker so high do surprise me. Adrianza I’ve railed on in the past, I just don’t believe in his bat. Parker just has so little to go on, and more than a few questions. I get Brown…he’s got a true ‘80’ tool to build off of, but Parker not so much. Dunning also seems high to me, though I do like his potential.

I like ranking Dominguez so high. He didn’t make the top 20 in our list, but I really do like his potential. His defense is better rated than it showed and some give him credit for, but the Giants really should push him. His power is legitimate, and he’s hit the deepest home runs many have seen at Lake Olmstead, according to the local people I talk to.

I’ll have to echo the questions about not including Verdugo. When I did my first, raw rating just looking at age, performances, etc…he actually made the Top 10, a big part of that including that he’s starting in the AFL and I’m hearing that the conversion will happen this season, a la David Mixon (who just had his first pro season of starting this year in Double-A).

It’s obvious that you put a lot of time and effort into it, because most of these guys aren’t well-known or highly thought of. It would have been very easy for you to just assume the party line and say that the Giants have nothing in the cupboard beyond the top 3 or 4 guys.

On the whole I agree with your letter grades. Strangely enough, you’ve rated several of these guys higher than I do, and I’m a huge Giants fan. I’m especially surprised to see that you have Peguero, Casilla, and Parker as high as B-. I would rank them as C+, C+, and C, respectively (with Parker being the C). I would also drop Michael Main to a C, and Chris Dominguez to a C-. On the other hand, you do have 1 guy (Chuckie Jones) rated as a C- (or even lower – you didn’t give him an actual grade) that I would rate as a solid C+. He’s a 5-tool stud that displayed the ability to stick in CF, and instantly translated his plus power potential into actual game power while playing in the AZL as a 17 year old. BA rated him as having the best pro debut of any high school player in the 2010 draft.

Those are minor quibbles, while we have some major disagreements on where everybody should be ranked. Obviously, from what I wrote previously, I think you’ve got Peguero, Casilla, Parker, and Dominguez ranked too high – with Casilla being the most egregious over-ranking. I’m also surprised that you like Peguero so much, because he seems to have way too many holes in his game that will be exploited mercilessly as he heads to AA next season, and continues to try and climb the ladder.

The main guys that I think you have too low are Chuckie Jones, Brandon Crawford, Kickham, and Hembree. Crawford’s defense is on par with Adrianza’s, but his bat is already much better than Adrianza’s will likely ever be able to evolve into. Don’t ignore the fact that Crawford made big strides in his approach at the plate this past season, while repeating in the EL. He upped his OBP from .294 in 2009 to .337 in 2010, and his BB-rate jumped up to 11.6% (way above-average) as compared to the 4.8% rate that he posted in 2009.

Mike Kickham struggled with his control and had inconsistent results in college in 2010, but he improved as the year progressed, and he produced a significant and prolonged jump in his velocity. By the summer his FB was sitting around 92 mph, and touching 95. He also developed a good power curve/slurve with great depth that could easily become a plus pitch for him. Lefties with that kind of stuff are hard to find. Give Kickham some time with Dick Tidrow, Steve Kline, and the other Giants pitching gurus this offseason and watch him explode onto the scene next year.

Heath Hembree already has a plus FB and above-average slider. His FB sits at 94-96 and has touched 100 mph. He’s also one of those rare things – a college closer whose team made it into the NCAA tournament, but who wasn’t overused and abused. He’s a thrower now, and just needs to learn how to be a pitcher in the pros. He could easily be pitching in the SF pen by the beginning of the 2011 season.

I find Surkamp intriguing.

It is generous to say that the graduations of Posey and Bumgarner take the top level off the system. Every team has a long list of “failed” prospects, and the Giants have lost some big hype guys this past season (or so): Noonan, Rafael Rodriguez, Henry Sosa, Kieschnick, and (if you go back 14 months or so) Villalona. Former B grade players (2009 or 2010) who are now off the top 20, so probably C (or worse or gone). Although really, this is just griping – that is sort of what the “B” grade means: not sure things.

I like the list you put out, nothing seems extraordinarily out of sorts, though I generally agree with others above who like certain pitchers a lot. But I think your list is fair and makes sense for the most part.

My only nitpick is regarding Brown, and not with the grade. He has shown the ability to take a walk. People are focusing too much on his 2010 season, where it was very low. One needs to look at his entire college career.

When he first started college, his walk rate was much higher, both in Big West and in Cape Cod. He wasn’t that good a hitter and he took a lot more walks to enable him to get on base and use his speed. As he got better in hitting in whatever league he was in, he took less walks, but his OBP was still high because he was hitting for a better average. So he knows how to take walks, he just didn’t see as much need to when he got better with the bat.

If one took linear weights and calculate the value of his BABIP, sliced for 5 PA, and compared it with changing that to 5 walks, the value of his BABIP was higher than the value of 5 walks. When you hit that well, walks are just not as valuable to the team.

Walks are obviously good, but hits are better and when you get enough of them, even when intermixed with the outs, the overall value is greater when compared.

Personally, I really like Brown’s potential and have no quibble with the grading. Only one full season in CF and he was excellent defensively there. He should only get better with experience. He should not have to hit much more than the average CF to have good value there just due to defense.

However, his hitting was great in the Big West, only three hitters had a better OPS than he did over the past 5-6 seasons: Evan Longoria, Kurt Suzuki, and Blumenthal (Mike?). And as I noted, he adjusted his hitting style as needed to enable him to get on base in order to use his speed, which should be noted is as fast to 1B from the batter’s box (he’s RH) as the best LHB. That’s extra speed that will pay off in gaining more hits on grounders, on the basepaths as a runner, as well as the outfield defense. I’m also partial to defense up the middle, and with Posey at C and hopefully Brown in CF, our defensive bookends will be gold glove caliber.

Whatever happened to Waldis Joaquin? I thought he was up-and-coming?