Marlins Trade Maybin
by killa on Nov 13, 2010 4:34 PM EST
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MLB Trade Rumors is reporting the Marlins have traded Cameron Maybin to the San Diego Padres in exchange for 2 young righty relievers: Edward Mujica and Ryan Webb.
Webb posted a 2.91 ERA in 59 IP with the padres last year. A closer look at peripherals (1.41 WHIP, 6.71 K/9) and his home/ road ERAs (0.90/4.97) suggest that he probably can't be counted on to match his ERA next year.
Mujica pitched 69.2 innings for the Padres, striking out 9.30/9 and allowing just 6 walks. He did give up 14 HRs though, and also had a Petco-favorable split (2.67/4.35).
Maybin struggled in the majors, but was solid in AAA again.
I like this deal for San Diego, as any time you get can get young toolsy OF with upside for a couple of solid if unspectacular relievers, you do it. What's everyone else think?
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MLBTR had previously reported KC was in talks for Maybin. I wish they could have pulled it off. I wouldn’t have had a problem giving up a couple RPs.
-1
You are when an organization continually toys with you like a yo-yo.
Maybin will be an excellent upgrade in San Diego. I can see him making 1 or 2 all star games at his peak.
The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.
+1
He was called up at 19 and has been shuttled back and forth ever since.
He’s still only 23 and I think a change of scenery will work wonders for him. Tools galore, great defense, very good plate discipline. Even if he hits 260 and the power doesn’t develop fully he is valuable with his defense, speed, and high BB totals
he may be mediocre
but for that cost … why not take a gamble and see if he ever puts it together? I honestly don’t know why more teams didn’t inquire considering the cost.
With Miller and Maybin gone … who was the best player the Fish got in that trade? Badenhop?
Yuck
I don’t see why they would possibly trade him if that’s all they could get.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
No idea why Florida did this.
Maybin wasn’t expensive and still has some breakout potential. The NL East is winnable next year, so I can see Florida making a push for some veterans, but this seems like awful roster management to me.
Tough for me to believe some other team wouldn’t have been willing to give up more.
They are hoping for a
Mike Jacobs for Leo Nunez type of return on this one. Except this time, they got TWO relievers….
furthermore
who plays CF for them? Bonifacio? I’m not real sure.
rumor is...
Scott Cousins gets the first crack in CF…
I like Mujica a lot. Unbelievable numbers this year.
Yes, he is a reliever. But if Florida believes that Maybin will never be successful, then they just picked up 2 really good relievers for a guy who they think will do nothing.
I’m not saying I agree, I’m just saying that the return is underrated.
by Kenneth Arthur on Nov 15, 2010 6:07 PM EST up reply actions
Others don't seem to be as high on Mujica, though
Obviously the K/BB numbers were exceptional this year. But he was extremely homer-prone while pitching in San Diego, so you have to wonder if that’s only going to become an even larger problem now that he’s gone.
I think the homers seriously limit his value.
Baseball is my preferred sport. It should be yours, too.
I'm an editor for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
by Satchel Price on Nov 17, 2010 10:45 AM EST up reply actions
Agreed
Obviously with relievers you’re working with pretty small samples anyway, but Mujica’s K rate was more than 50% better at home vs. on the road. His HR/9 was 2.27 on the road.
http://bullpenbanter.com
Keith Law made a pretty strong comment on Mujica in his Maybin trade analysis
Mujica is a throw-in, a strike thrower whose fastball is flat, leaving him homer-prone to a point where he may not be a major league pitcher outside of Petco.
Baseball is my preferred sport. It should be yours, too.
I'm an editor for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
by Satchel Price on Nov 17, 2010 12:14 PM EST up reply actions
Also...
Rumors of Maybin’s uselessness have been greatly exaggerated. UZR pegs him as a +3 fielder over just more than a season’s worth of PT (small sample). Regressing that down to zero, he’s still been about a 1.5 WAR player over a full season, and he’s still just 24.
Great move by the Pads, who just got some offensive upside on a team sorely lacking in it.
Maybin still pounds the ball into the ground often
I just read Maybin vs. Bruce prospect smackdown and Maybin never got over hitting groundballs,
Would you still take Daryl Jones over Maybin and McCutchen?
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/8/24/600145/discussion-question-maybin
"This has got to hurt"
by Da.aron on Nov 13, 2010 6:10 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Yeah, because we all want to be checked against every one of our old predictions
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on Nov 14, 2010 9:34 AM EST up reply actions
It's a little different...
when someone’s being intentionally incendiary with their predictions.
Nothing.
And there’s a difference between making a wrong prediction and making a dumb prediction.
Baseball is my preferred sport. It should be yours, too.
I'm an editor for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
by Satchel Price on Nov 17, 2010 10:45 AM EST up reply actions
Doug Gray pointed this out perfectly..
I like Cameron Maybin…..
but I have some serious serious questions about his bat…. at least until he shows otherwise. He puts the ball on the ground an awful lot. He gets a ton of “luck” with a BABIP of .415 last season. He also has a low line drive percentage (according to minorleaguesplits.com) compared to other top prospects of similar age. Does he have lots of talent and projection? Anyone who says he doesn’t has obviously not seen him play. He has a lot of questions to answer though for me before I think this past season for him wasn’t a little fluky.
Can he not strike out 26% of the time he steps to the plate?
Can he hit more line drives?
Can he put up good numbers without a BABIP over .400?
Just my opinion.
www.redsminorleagues.com
by dougdirt on Feb 28, 2007 9:13 AM EST reply
This is all fair...
but it’s not like he’s a lumbering corner guy. He’s a legitimate defensive center fielder. Even if he doesn’t improve much from his current level, he’s a ~1.5-2-win player if he plays every day. With a little improvement you have an above average up-the-middle guy.
And then, of course, there’s the upside.
Obviously Maybin’s been a disappointment, but there’s a difference between disappointment and bust. Maybin should be a good pickup for San Diego, especially at that cost.
A 1.5-2 win player over 162 games?...
I thought the Padres already have that guy, and he’s on the same arb clock as Maybin.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qU_9zTD9B98&feature=related
Apparently there's an epilepsy warning on this video. But it's so incredibly cool.
by Dan Strittmatter on Nov 13, 2010 5:58 PM EST up reply actions
What's wrong with having two of them?
And obviously, there’s the upside difference.
Nothing's wrong with having two of them
But something’s wrong with giving up a minimum-salary, 3.32 xFIP reliever for one of them when you already have the other.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qU_9zTD9B98&feature=related
Apparently there's an epilepsy warning on this video. But it's so incredibly cool.
by Dan Strittmatter on Nov 13, 2010 6:01 PM EST up reply actions
min-salary relievers like Webb
are worth about 0.5-1 WAR. Everyday CFs with Maybin’s abilities are worth 1-2 WAR, and even marginal improvements could easily push him to 2.5-3 given a chance to play everyday.
If you want to talk about team context, though, remember also that the Pads were dealing from a position of strength. Between Bell, Adams, Gregorson, and Thatcher, they’ve got their late innings pretty well taken care of with or without Webb. What they lack is position players with any kind of upside whatsoever. Gwynn is an all-glove guy with extremely limited offensive upside. Maybin’s a solid asset who could turn into a whole lot more than that.
We obviously simply disagree about Maybin's upside
But just because you deal from strength doesn’t mean you can’t get something. Just ask the A’s, they got a year of David DeJesus for the worst of their six starters.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qU_9zTD9B98&feature=related
Apparently there's an epilepsy warning on this video. But it's so incredibly cool.
by Dan Strittmatter on Nov 13, 2010 6:27 PM EST up reply actions
Yep.
I don’t think 4 years of Maybin qualifies as nothing.
forget the numbers for a while
Maybin has done absolutely nothing to show he has changed his approach in the past few years. No matter how talented he is, with his current approach he can not and will not fulfill his upside.
IMO he was not coachable. At least in the FLA system. And so they realized he would never reach his upside with them and they parted ways before all value is lost.
Also, there is a solid chance Mujica gets a shot a starting job if needed.
whups...
I agree he’s been a huge disappointment, but as I said above, there’s a difference between a disappointment and a bust. I think he’s more valuable to the Padres than Webb is today, even if he doesn’t take much of a meaningful step forward. The upside is a nice added bonus.
I think you’re absolutely right that there was a great deal of internal frustration on Florida’s end that contributed to this deal. I still think it’s a very nice move from the Pads’ perspective, though.
definitely a good idea
maybe the trade will be a wakeup call. I just have the feeling Maybin is an athlete and not a baseball player. Everyone is sold on the track and field skills but he just can’t hit. Hopefully he starts the year in the minors and works on his swing with the Padres – because I think that is the only way he takes a large step forward.
Any idea what his option situation looks like?
Can they option him to the minors to start the year?
it doesn't look like it
I think 2007, 2009, 2010 he used up options. So they would need to manufacture an injury.
pedrophile is correct
He’s out of options. Another motivation behind Florida making the deal, in all likelihood.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qU_9zTD9B98&feature=related
Apparently there's an epilepsy warning on this video. But it's so incredibly cool.
by Dan Strittmatter on Nov 14, 2010 10:24 AM EST up reply actions
As poory as they handled him
I wouldn’t be surprised to see him improve from, say, the age of 24 as most players do. He’s had a little more than a full season of at-bats in his career, he’s shown legitimate improvement in the minors, give the kid a chance in the Majors and an organization that cares about its players more than the Marlins.
by Daniel Berlyn on Nov 14, 2010 3:16 PM EST up reply actions
yeah, but
Gwynn is already 28 and maxed out and Maybin is 23 and still has untapped potential
If you have two guys that are basically the same, but one is in his prime and won’t get any better than he already is, and the other is just a kid and could explode, which do you take?
Actually
Gwynn is arb eligible right this moment, while Maybin is almost certainly 2 years removed (nice of the Marlins to save the Padres the headache of screwing with his service clock!) from it.
And guys who post a .276 wOBA in 113 games rarely play 162…
by realitypolice on Nov 15, 2010 3:49 PM EST up reply actions
I'm in the minority here in thinking this
But Florida won this. Maybin’s not going to magically break out in Petco, and though he’s a serviceable center fielder defensively, the Padres already have that guy – his name is Tony Gwynn, Jr..
Sure, the offensive upsides aren’t the same, but Maybin has shown us nothing that should let us believe that he’ll reach his offensive upside. Too many grounders, too high of BABIP, too many K’s, too few walks, the whole deal. This is a guy who got 322 PA’s last year and posted a .299 wOBA. Yuck.
Plus, if Cot’s is to be trusted (and it typically is), Maybin is heading into arbitration this year. Webb won’t be headed to arbitration for quite a while, and Mujica might provide a little surplus value with this being just his first arb year. It’s hard to lose a trade, not to mention get fleeced, when you’re giving up only relief pitching, but I think that’s what just happened to Jed Hoyer.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qU_9zTD9B98&feature=related
Apparently there's an epilepsy warning on this video. But it's so incredibly cool.
by Dan Strittmatter on Nov 13, 2010 5:56 PM EST reply actions
Maybin in Arbitration...
isn’t exactly due for a huge payday. I’ll put the over/under on his Arb 1 salary at $1million. Personally I’d bet the under.
Sure
But he’s awfully close to being a replacement-level player. I don’t want to be paying a replacement-level player more than minimum.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qU_9zTD9B98&feature=related
Apparently there's an epilepsy warning on this video. But it's so incredibly cool.
by Dan Strittmatter on Nov 13, 2010 5:59 PM EST up reply actions
I disagree.
Fangraphs has him at 1.7 WAR over his first 610 PAs.
Career .334 BABIP
With so few line drives, is that really going to stay that high?
Over half (0.9) of that WAR was from an eight-game stint in ‘08 in which he had a BABIP of .667, no peripheral skills worth admiring, and a 2.6 UZR. Yeah, that’s an accurate measure of his talent level.
He had 322 PA’s last year and put up a wOBA of .299. Replacement-level. Or at least darn close.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qU_9zTD9B98&feature=related
Apparently there's an epilepsy warning on this video. But it's so incredibly cool.
by Dan Strittmatter on Nov 13, 2010 6:05 PM EST up reply actions
All of the samples...
are small. Players have week-long stints where they’re on fire over full-seasons all the time that inflate their WAR all the time, as well as particularly low points that drive it down. There’s a reason we look for the largest samples possible, because the larger the sample, the more it balances the peaks and valleys. I don’t trust the +2.6 UZR over that time, obviously, but that’s why I neutralized his defensive value to zero rather than assuming it’s the +3 UZR says it is.
His BABIP may very well be sustainable, though I think it will go down as he tries to change his approach and drive the ball more. He’s a GB-heavy guy who’s got some wheels. GBs aren’t as good as line drives, obviously, but BABIP is much higher on grounders than FBs. There are two types of players who tend to run higher GB-rates than normal: guys who spray line drives all over the field, and guys like Maybin has been to-date.
He had 322 PA’s last year and put up a wOBA of .299. Replacement-level. Or at least darn close.
Remember, offense was down overall last year. A replacement level bat in 2010 was something like a .288 wOBA. There’s a reason he graded out as an above replacement level player even though his UZR hit was bigger than his positive positional adjustment.
Sure
But I don’t see this deal working out for the Padres if he keeps up that level of offensive output…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qU_9zTD9B98&feature=related
Apparently there's an epilepsy warning on this video. But it's so incredibly cool.
by Dan Strittmatter on Nov 14, 2010 10:25 AM EST up reply actions
Arbitration...
looked this up, and Cot’s spreadsheet was based on service time through the ’09 season. Not sure how much he accrued this year, but it was less than a full season. He very well may have one more year at the league minimum.
Where are you guys getting Maybin at that kind of service time?
Cots has him at 129 days coming into this year, even if he accrued a full year this year(he probably didn’t, playing 36 games in the minors though that could be MLB DL time which counts) he’d still have a year of minimum salary at least with the possibility of two years depending on what the Super 2 number is next year.
I definitely agree with slamcactus, this is a good move by San Diego. Gwynn is arb eligible so they can non-tender him if they so choose. Mujica is arb eligible as well, and was somewhere around 4th-5th on the pecking order in the pen. Webb had plenty of team control left and is a guy I like, but building a bullpen in San Diego has proven an easy thing to do year in and year out. Gambling on Maybin’s talent for the cost of two relievers is a great move, and I say that as someone who isn’t high on Maybin at all.
http://bullpenbanter.com
The "2010-2014 Obligations"
spreadsheet that Cots links to had Maybin at 2.0 years service time post-2009 and eligible as an Arb 1 guy next year. I don’t think that’s right, though.
Way off
He had around 129 days. If he played a full season in 10 and 11 he would have been around the super 2 cutoff. But he was sent down. So he won’t be arb eligible until 13.
That's pretty much what I gathered
He spent too much time in the minors for it all to be rehab for injuries, so he couldn’t have accrued a full year of service time in 2010. So San Diego gets two years at league minimum to see if Maybin lives up to the potential(or even just showing signs of it) before they have to pay him much of anything. Good gamble to take, that kind of talent doesn’t normally come cheap.
http://bullpenbanter.com
great gamble to take
but without options I guess the Marlins figured there was no way they would be the ones to turn him around and got to very solid relievers, one that might spot start for them. IMO a good deal for both sides.
Hmph
Darned Cot’s. Usually reliable.
Obviously, this changes a lot… I was under the impression that they were getting Maybin for three arbitration years, not two minimum years and three arbitration years.
Bah. And I thought Hoyer screwed up for a sec. Shame. Still not buying a breakout, but Maybin will be as valuable as Webb was for SD, and they can plug guys like Frieri into Webb’s spot to gain basically equal value again.
I still don’t see the difference between Maybin and TGJr. other than control, though. If it was any team but San Diego giving up those relievers, I’d still favor Florida. As it is, it’s probably going to benefit both sides. Which isn’t surprising, given how early this deal went down in the off-season.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qU_9zTD9B98&feature=related
Apparently there's an epilepsy warning on this video. But it's so incredibly cool.
by Dan Strittmatter on Nov 14, 2010 10:29 AM EST up reply actions
I still don’t see the difference between Maybin and TGJr. other than control, though.
Upside. Maybin may never fulfill his vast potential, but he has much more talent than Tony Gwynn Jr. At the cost of two relievers they are unlikely to miss the Padres get two cheap years to see if Maybin taps into that potential. Florida will get use out of the relievers, but between this and the Miller deal they’ve ended up with three relief arms and little else for MCab.
http://bullpenbanter.com
Yeah, I understand cutting ties with Miller
But the Maybin deal just doesn’t make any sense.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
So just because they got ripped off in the MCab deal
Means they should hang onto parts that haven’t adjusted their crappy approach at the plate in three years of time in their system? Right…
Fine, I’ve admitted that there’s upside. But that upside will mean nothing if he doesn’t change his awful approach, and apparently the Marlins felt strongly enough that he wouldn’t which is why they dumped him for a pair of relievers.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qU_9zTD9B98&feature=related
Apparently there's an epilepsy warning on this video. But it's so incredibly cool.
by Dan Strittmatter on Nov 14, 2010 2:26 PM EST up reply actions
Not at all
I just find it amazing that the Marlins essentially turned MCab into three relief arms because they failed to develop Miller and Maybin, since player development is a strength of the organization.
I see that you acknowledge the difference in upside further up the thread, but the post I replied to stated that the team control was the only real difference you see in the two players. Upside is obviously the biggest difference, but there is also the 4 and a half year age difference and the cost of the players(league minimum vs. arbitration eligible). Those factors plus the additional two years of team control adds up to quite a bit of difference really, especially for a lower budget team like San Diego.
I’m not some Maybin fan or anything, I’m on record on this site over the years doubting the likelihood of him reaching his potential because of his approach. I do however, believe in gambling on big time talent if the price is reasonable. In this case, the price is unbelievably low.
http://bullpenbanter.com
by gatling on Nov 14, 2010 3:25 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
If Maybin was still in the minors
From being blocked or something, he would still be grabbing top ten prospect honors from most. He’s still under 25 and he’s performed pretty well when you adjust for his age and his position.
Put me in the “San Diego made out like a bandit” camp.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
I wish I would have posted the conversation here
…but about 2 years ago, I had both Maybin and Fernando Martinez on my dynasty league team. Another owner attempted to begin talking me down on how the Marlins and Mets have ruined their respective prospect (in hopes that I’d trade the player for less than market value). My response then on both players is the same as it is now. I believe they will both have good major league careers, and it wouldn’t surprise me if one of the two had a few all-star games in his hat at the end of playing days, however, I don’t think either guy will be that player for his current organization. I no longer even play in that dynasty league, but I hope this is the first step toward realizing at least some of his immense potential for Maybin, and I can only hope that Martinez is not an Alderson guy so he can find an organization that will coach him up and turn him into the player he has flashed all these years.
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
The situations are somewhat similar
The problem here is player development. I never believed in “organizational philosophy” because each kid is different and needs to be handled differently. Some kids need a challenge, while others need to experience success. And this last aspect is where both the Mets and Marlins failed in their respective handling of Martinez and Maybin.
Hopefully we’ll get to see the best out of both these talented players sometime in the near future.
mujica as a starter
i think there is a decent shot that mujica becomes a starter. perhaps that was what the marlins were thinking. and if that happens, i think mujica has the upside of a ricky nolasco
Webb
Rotoworld seems to think Webb could end up closing for FLA. It does make sense…. Nunez was falling out of favor by the end of the year and Hensley hadn’t done a thing in the majors since 2006 prior to last year…. who knows if he lasts.
About Mujica
The man gave up a lot of home runs this year but he also has serious control and stuff. It’s weird to see his K/9, K/BB and then his HR/9 all in the same line.
Upside
I just don’t see Maybin having the same upside as he used to. The athleticism is still there and so is the bat speed. But the ability to make consistent solid contact, his approach at the plate, his ability to recognize and or hit breaking balls – these skills didn’t develop. And without these skills I see his upside being significantly less than what it was.
I "sort of" agree
What I mean is, I think that his upside is less than what you THOUGHT it was going to be. In that sense, I think a lot of what people perceive as upside, is a fantasy of what a player can be.
I think he has all the skills to be as good of a player as Franklin Gutierrez is. Before you guys say he isn’t, go take a look at all the clips of him playing CF, if you haven’t already. He’s got it with the glove.
The bat? Well, he has consistently hit better in the minor leagues than Gutierrez has and he doesn’t even have to get that much better to reach that level- his Ops is .692 so far and Gutierrez is .716.
I think once people get over what they THOUGHT he was going to be and see him for what he is as a player, and except that the big leagues are hard!, they’ll see he’s a pretty nice talent. As a Padre fan I’m delighted to have him and even more delighted at the cost.
Inside every cynical person, there is a disappointed idealist.
-George Carlin
Never was a fan of his
My point being more that people see bat speed, potential power, an ability to take walks, and him being very fast (which should help his babip). They also probably saw him severely lacking in certain skills. But looking at his skills many projected these skills would improve to match his tools. It certainly was possible.
But it’s becoming more apparent those skills probably will never materialize to the level expected. Especially since one of the skills has gone nowhere – that of the ability to hit breaking pitches.
I always thought his chance of reaching his ceiling low. But with the stagnation of his skills I now believe his ceiling has been lowered.
Did you honestly believe he didn’t have that high of a ceiling? Or did you, like me, just think his odds of reaching said ceiling were very low?
Neither
I believe that that concept of ceiling is IMAGINARY. I only believe in seeing the actual player. I believe that the player people were dreaming on in 2008 didn’t really exist and, the one who is struggling to establish himself in the big leagues in late 2010 is the same one that was around then and onece, we all except that, he looks like a pretty good player to me, despite the flaws. Look how Chris Young has struggled at times,Gutierrez as well.
The only time I calculate some sort of ceiling with odds on it or whatever is when a player has an obvious injury problem, or a problem in his makeup that is obvious.
In Maybin’s case, and countless other prospects, it is just a matter of evaluating the prospect correctly when he is younger. Many anticipated his struggles and anticipate that he’ll still be a solid player. He’s barely scratched the surface of what he’s going to be as a regular player.
Inside every cynical person, there is a disappointed idealist.
-George Carlin
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