Arizona Fall League Observations
by John Sickels on Nov 10, 2010 2:15 PM EST
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I got back yesterday from the First Pitch Arizona conference. I got to visit with many friends, talked with baseball folk, and took in some good information regarding Arizona Fall League players, many that I had not seen before. Much of this information will be incorporated into other posts here on the blog, including the Top 20 lists, along with the 2011 Baseball Prospect Book, and two more articles I am working on for Rotowire.
Here are a few observations which may interest you.
Bryce Harper, OF, Nationals: Just saw one game, but he looked great to me. He was badly fooled by a curveball in one at-bat, but when the pitcher used the same pitch later in the plate appearance,Harper adjusted to it rapidly and made contact. I've seen Triple-A hitters who can't adjust that quickly. He's got some issues with contact to work out, but he makes a solid attempt to work the count and is extremely advanced for his age. He runs pretty well for a big guy and appears to have a good arm. Buzz is that he's adjusting quickly to pro conditions.
Brandon Belt, 1B, Giants: Hitting .365/.414/.571 in Arizona. I think he's completely legitimate...he's surprisingly fast and agile for a big player, and his swing is totally reworked since he was in college. Likely getting a Grade A- for me, and possibly the best first base prospect not named Hosmer.
Dustin Ackley, 2B, Mariners: Really locked in right now, hitting .442/.577/.808 with 18 walks and just eight strikeouts in 52 at-bats. Extremely polished, makes few mistakes at the plate, driving the ball very well right now, although I still expect him to be more of a doubles/triples guy than a big home run output. I personally did not get much of a read on his defense, but opinion seems mixed about it; he's OK, but he'll really need to hit to stick at second.
Mike Montgomery, LHP, Royals: Saw him in the All Star game. I thought his delivery was less smooth and more high-effort than the last time I saw him. I gave him a B+ on the Royals list and will likely stick with that. Scouts seem to like him better than Danny Duffy.
Danny Duffy, LHP, Royals: Struggling in the AFL; stuff quality has been inconsistent and he looks rather tired, which may be a bit weird since he threw just 62 innings this year. Am considering a downgrade from an A- to a B+, but am undecided since I don't want to overreact to a small number of games.
Manny Banuelos, LHP, Yankees: The main thing I noticed about him was how smooth and easy his delivery is; he puts a lot less physical effort into it than Montgomery or Duffy yet generates very quality stuff. I am now a huge Banuelos fan.
Zach Cox, 3B, Cardinals: Honestly he didn't look that special to me; just a guy on the field, kind of blah. Swing looks pretty but is there a lot of power to come? I'm not sure.
Leslie Anderson, OF, Rays: Cuban defector seems to excite some people with his tools, and he did hit .302/.359/.442 this year at three levels, including .328/.359/.418 in Triple-A. I think he can hit for some average but at age 29 entering 2011, his upside is limited unless his power spikes more than I expect.
Eric Thames, OF, Blue Jays: Hitting .257/.366/.443, not great for the league context but granted sample is small. He hit a home run and a double in the game I saw him play, and showed a terrific approach at the plate, including power to all fields and good plate discipline. Opinion seems mixed; some scouts who have seen him more than I have say his swing is too long, but others say it looks fine and he's a sleeper for 2011/2012. In the game I saw it looked good to me, but I've liked him since he was at Pepperdine so maybe I'm biased.
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As a Giant fan it is hard not to get excited about Belt
It will be interesting to see how hit does against the breaking stuff of Major league pitcher. But his approach from everthing I read and seen is Major league ready. He just like Buster Posey.
??
No parlover, Belt is not just like Posey. Maybe he has similar upside, but let’s not get carried away about a guy who has yet to conquer big league pitching (and Triple-A as well) like Posey has.
He doesn't even have similar upside
Because he’s a first baseman. Posey can be a legendary baseball player. Belt’s ceiling is just a very good one.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qU_9zTD9B98&feature=related
Apparently there's an epilepsy warning on this video. But it's so incredibly cool.
by Dan Strittmatter on Nov 10, 2010 5:01 PM EST up reply actions
speaking as a Giants fan
I think what parlover was trying to say was that he has a polished professional approach at the plate, like Posey. i.e. he’s not a hacker. That has been a rare thing for the Giants in the post-Bonds era, and something a lot of fans in SF are excited about.
Idolizing Robb Nen since 2002...
by Smoke on the Water on Nov 10, 2010 6:18 PM EST up reply actions
Yes
Take a look of the following positional prospects that have come through the Giants system. Sandavol, Feliz, Bowker, etc. When these guys swing and miss it look ugly.
BTW. Belt 3 for 4 today with 2 walks. Double and a Triple. Course is the AFL and the pitching sucks in this league. We will see next year in Spring Training.
The pitching he’ll face in ST next year (especially in the first few weeks) won’t be much better than what he’s facing now. And he’s not likely to face a big challenge from the pitchers he’ll be seeing for Fresno in the PCL when next season starts. As with Posey this past season, we’re not likely to get a true read on Belt’s hitting until he reaches the majors sometime between May and Sept. 2010.
As you noted, Belt ended up 3-4 today. He’s on a roll with 4 duobles, 3 triples, and 1 HR in his last 6 games, and 14 hits in his last 30 ABs to raise his season AFL totals to:
.408/.464/.686/1.150 with HR=1, 3B=4, 2B=8, K=17 (20.2%), BB=10 (11.9%)
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Belt may have had a low BA in AAA
but he had a 0.419 wOBA! That is sick. From the one game that I saw of him on TV, and his wOBA numbers in the minors this year, I’d bet in Belt.
Thanks, as a Rays fan, for the info on Anderson.
So pretty much, what is his upside? Good corner outfield defense hitting .280 with 10-15 homers and gap power?
Anderson will pretty much be a backup though, so not too much is expected.
Also, I know a lot or people have asked you many questions, but did you see Rays top propsect Alex Cobb pitch? If so, what were your thoughts on him?
You really think there won't be an opening?
Carlos Pena and Carl Crawford are gone and Upton may be trade bait. That leave 1B open and if Upton is traded a second outfield slot (assuming Jennings replaces Crawford). Anderson is hardly a favorite to win a starting gig but I wouldn’t rule him out yet.
I think he was just talking about the most likely scenario
And as for the outfield spot, I feel like Tampa is more likely to call on Matt Joyce if they decide to move Crawford (with Jennings sliding from LF to CF), with a Joyce-Jennings-Zobrist outfield in that case.
Baseball is my preferred sport. It should be yours, too.
I'm an editor for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
by Satchel Price on Nov 11, 2010 12:00 PM EST up reply actions
They won't trade Upton.
Crawford is replaced by Jennings.
Pena is replaced (if the Rays don;t want him) by Johnson/Zobrist.
Anderson has to fight to make the team.
I would endorse the downgrade for Duffy
A- seemed too high to me when you gave it to him.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
Cox
I don’t know if anyone expected “a lot” of power, but what are your expectations after this look, John? I don’t think 15-20 is a lot, but it seems doable. I think his value lies more in his contact ability, advanced approach and his chances of sticking at 3B or 2B where his bat plays up.
I don't know if that comparison is really fair
If they end up trading him, that fact alone hardly makes him “another Brett Wallace”, and I don’t hear a lot of people talking about how Zach Cox is 100% a future first baseman.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Not many were calling Wallace a definite future 1B a couple months after he was drafted, too.
Baseball is my preferred sport. It should be yours, too.
I'm an editor for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
by Satchel Price on Nov 11, 2010 12:01 PM EST up reply actions
I don't think
there are anywhere near the same number of questions about Cox’s defense that there were Wallace’s though they’ve existed all year. I have heard Cox to 2B possibilities, but haven’t seen 1B mentioned anywhere. Cox doesn’t have an awesome body, but it’s certainly not as peculiar as Wallace’s was/is, and the questions are about his reaction time rather than actions or arm. There’s definitely a risk that he falls somewhere between 2B and 3B without being entirely suitable for either.
by blackoutyears on Nov 11, 2010 12:17 PM EST up reply actions
I'm not sure why 2B mentions persist
I guess because he played there some in college. COF seems like the next stop for Cox.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
Probably
He was in that mix at times at Arkansas, and a couple of scouting reports I’ve read said he had the arm and ability to play there. My feeling is that he’d be short on range and DP actions for 2B but that he may lack the reaction time to be an above average 3B. We’ll see. As much as some credit his bat, it does seem like a lot of his value is tied to sticking at a premium INF position. I think the overlap with Wallace is that he has a good chance to be a similarly polarizing prospect. lol
by blackoutyears on Nov 11, 2010 3:10 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, and I'm guessing I'll be one on the negative side
I just don’t believe in the power or defense and that really damages his prospect status. I’m still not sure how he got an MLB contract.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
Draft discussions
There were definitely discussions at draft time about how the potential to play 2B would make him a good fit for the Cards. It’s not like they came out and said they’d move him there, but it’s a fairly realistic assumption that they may try him.
2B and 3B
Are both positions of need for the Cards, so either scenario would probably work for them.
by blackoutyears on Nov 11, 2010 4:06 PM EST up reply actions
Well, I don't care if they try him there or not
I care about whether he can actually stick at the position. The pre-draft reports were pretty much unanimous that he cannot. Second base would also minimize his best (only?) defensive tool, his plus arm strength.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
Right, but...
I was just answering your question about why the 2B mentions persist. I think a lot of fans have the expectation that STL will try him there, in part because of draft-time discussions. Until STL says it won’t (which I don’t think has happened yet), I doubt those mentions will cease.
Thanks for the report John
Good work.
Based on what I saw in the Rising Stars game on Saturday night (admittedly a SSS), I’m in almost total agreement with you in your assessment of Ackley, Belt, Cox, Montgomery and Banuelos.
I saw Ackley in person in 2009 when UNC played a 3 game series at FSU. At that time I didn’t think his swing would allow him to hit for a lot of power in the majors, and nothing I saw on Saturday changed my mind. He’s especially going to be hampered by having to play so many games in the Seattle ballpark. During Saturday’s broadcast, John Manuel also stated pretty emphatically that he didn’t see Ackley hitting for a ton of power in the majors.
Banuelos looked smooth and under control to me – I liked him a lot. I see him as a pitcher now, while Montgomery struck me as still being just a thrower.
As for Cox, I dont’ think he’ll ever be able to play good enough D to stick at 3B or 2B. I’m afraid his future in the majors will have to be as a 1B/LF/DH – and he’s unlikely ever to hit for enough power or average to be a regular starter at any of those positions.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Just a friendly FYI
Safeco Field in Seattle is pretty neutral to left handed hitters and might even be slightly positive for them. Safeco has gotten it’s unfriendly reputation to hitters mostly because of how it’s been so negative against right handed hitters.
According to StatCorner's data, it's actually slightly pitcher friendy for both sides
They have different factors for both RH and LH hitters, and Safeco has 96 marks for both of them (100 is neutral).
The bigger difference is on home runs- RH/LH splits of 91/84 for Safeco on homers.
Baseball is my preferred sport. It should be yours, too.
I'm an editor for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
by Satchel Price on Nov 11, 2010 12:03 PM EST up reply actions
I think you mean 91/LH and 84/RH, but anyway
I was actually looking at an article in the Hardball times which took multiple seasons of data and this is what Safeco came up with as far as home runs are concerned.
(100 is neutral)
LF: 94, LCF: 89, CF: 64, RCF: 115, RF: 131, TOTAL: 93
So it’s pretty clear hitting a home run to right field is a good deal easier than to left. Not sure how much it helps Ackley though since he’s a hit to all fields hitter, but for LH pull hitters Safeco is pretty friendly.
ummmmmm
As a UNC fan and alum, I’ve seen Ackley in person a few times. His swing may not translate to HR power, per se, but it will translate to power as he physically matures. He may not hit 40 HRs in Safeco, but he’ll be a threat to hit 60 2Bs.
THAT is why he will be so valuable.
by apoxonbothyourhouses on Nov 11, 2010 2:43 AM EST up reply actions
Smooth vs High effort delivery
Hi John,
Can you give Major League examples of pitchers with high effort delivery and pitchers with smooth delivery?
It seems like Roy Halladay and Tim Lincecum have high effort delivery but they don’t get much wear and tear.
Halladay has a high effort delivery?
by King Billy Royal on Nov 10, 2010 10:13 PM EST up reply actions
That's exactly my point
I guess this is the part of scouting that many outsiders don’t really have a general consensus. What is the definition of high effort delivery? Does Halladay looks high effort in your opinion?
I think Doc has a high effort delivery because when he pitches, he arches his back and tugs both of his arms and left leg very close to his body, then expand his body in one abrupt motion. Obviously I’m just a casual fan, so my interpretation might be wrong and opinionated.
Halladay has a very free and easy delivery
Guys like Lincecum and Strasburg seem like high effort to me.
by King Billy Royal on Nov 11, 2010 12:50 AM EST up reply actions
really?
it’s high effort for him to be free and easy.
he completely revamped his delivery and it takes effort for him to repeat it every time as it’s not his natural delivery.
by apoxonbothyourhouses on Nov 11, 2010 2:45 AM EST up reply actions
Strasburg?
was not high effort. his was high strain on his elbow.
did you ever see him pitch?
by apoxonbothyourhouses on Nov 11, 2010 2:45 AM EST up reply actions
Ryan Lavarnway
He is putting up very solid numbers in the AFL.
.302, 3HR, 9RBI
Is he gonna get mentioned more often anytime soon? The kid looks like he can flat out play….
it sounds like he, maybe, cant "flat out hit"
but the other side of the ball might be a different story.
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
http://twitter.com/doublestix
well, that's because i screwed up
he CAN hit, but can he stick behind the plate? and if he can’t, can he REALLY hit so he can be a ML player at 1B or DH?
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
http://twitter.com/doublestix
Jeremy Jeffress
he hit 101mph with his fastball. Pretty darn impressive. I hope he can become a starter but I know he could at least be a very dominant reliever
yes
yes, i like him a lot, and in the majors they can hopefully do a better job managing his drug issue.
by John Sickels on Nov 11, 2010 10:12 PM EST up reply actions
Disagree
I think you meant to say ‘hopefully HE can do a better job managing his drug issue.’
by King Billy Royal on Nov 12, 2010 12:16 AM EST up reply actions
yes and no
Yes and no. Yes, it is up to him to manage it. But the organization can also do a better job helping him do so with more constant supervision plus peer pressure from his teammates. In theory anyway; but i’m not just making that up, i’ve heard baseball people say the same thing.
by John Sickels on Nov 12, 2010 2:57 PM EST up reply actions
This shouldn't even be an issue now that he's on the 40 man roster
it’s marijuana, why should we care at all? I’d bet quite a few major leaguers partake in the activity.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
This is a fact.
MLB cannot test for marijuana so there is no issue.
Tools Whore
I think he's trying a changeup
but mostly sticking with the fastball&curve as of right now
by ilikeburritos on Nov 13, 2010 3:57 PM EST up reply actions
Jeremy Moore?
far from a top prospect but he’s only 23 and he put up a pretty decent stat line of .343/.395/.543 and he showed more plate discipline than he’s shown before.
go long with extenze...i do
by angelsownredsux on Nov 29, 2010 10:59 PM EST reply actions
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