Texas Rangers Top 20 Prospects for 2011
by John Sickels on Nov 1, 2010 10:15 PM EDT
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Texas Rangers Top 20 Prospects for 2011
All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don't get too concerned about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get past the Top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you want to emphasize.
Feel free to critique the list, but use logic and reason rather than polemics to do to. The list and grades are a blending of present performance and long-term potential. Full reports on all of players can be found in the 2011 Baseball Prospect Book. We are now taking pre-orders. Order early and order often!
QUICK PRIMER ON GRADE MEANINGS:
Grade A prospects are the elite. They have a good chance of becoming stars or superstars. Almost all Grade A prospects develop into major league regulars, if injuries or other problems don't intervene. Note that is a major "if" in some cases.
Grade B prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers. Some will develop into stars, some will not. Most end up spending several years in the majors, at the very least in a marginal role.
Grade C prospects are the most common type. These are guys who have something positive going for them, but who may have a question mark or three, or who are just too far away from the majors to get an accurate feel for. A few Grade C guys, especially at the lower levels, do develop into stars. Many end up as role players or bench guys. Some don't make it at all.
A major point to remember is that grades for pitchers do NOT correspond directly to grades for hitters. Many Grade A pitching prospects fail to develop, often due to injuries. Some Grade C pitching prospects turn out much better than expected.
Also note that there is diversity within each category. I'm a tough grader; Grade C+ is actually good praise coming from me, and some C+ prospects turn out very well indeed.
Finally, keep in mind that all grades are shorthand. You have to read the full comment for my full opinion about a player, the letter grade only tells you so much. A Grade C prospect in rookie ball could end up being very impressive, while a Grade C prospect in Triple-A is likely just a future role player.
Top 20 Rangers Prospects for 2011
1) Jurickson Profar, SS, Grade B+: Borderline A-, grade is undecided basically. Outstanding defense, very young for his level, not sure how the hitting will develop but flashes a lot of promise and should be an average hitter at worst.
2) Martin Perez, LHP, Grade B+: I'm firm on this grade, one notch lower than last year. I know he was young for the Texas League, but still. . .it was not a good season, and I'm concerned that his stuff wasn't as consistent this year. Keep in mind a B+ still makes him a really good prospect in my view.
3) Robbie Erlin, LHP, Grade B+: Terrific feel for pitching, stats are great, scouts like him even though he's a smaller pitcher.
4) Tanner Scheppers, RHP, Grade B: Very tough to rank. Was great in relief early, stumbled in the rotation, and was horrible back in the bullpen late. This grade could go down a notch further depending on what further research reveals.
5) Mike Olt, 3B, Grade B: Fine glove at third base, should post a strong OBP, home run power still a bit of a question. Expect him to be a solid regular.
6) Engel Beltre, OF, Grade B-: Might go with a Grade B here, undecided grade. If I do that, he could move ahead of Olt and/or Scheppers. I love the tools and youth, but there is just something here that makes me wonder. . .I want to see him in Arizona before I make a final decision. Spots 4-6 are still in flux, so no whining about it please.
7) Robbie Ross, LHP, Grade B-: Love the power sinker.
8) Neil Ramirez, RHP, Grade B-: Strong in the second half, potential breakout in 2011.
9) Jake Skole, OF, Grade B-: Stats weren't great, but he was awfully young for the Northwest League.
10) Miguel De Los Santos, LHP, Grade B-: I'm a sucker for the power lefties.
11) Kellen Deglan, C, Grade B-: Glove ahead of the bat at this point.
12) Wilmer Font, RHP, Grade B-: Another grade that could change depending on winter health reports. Excellent power arm but health issues abound.
13) Michael Kirkman, LHP, Grade C+: Yet another grade that could change, in his case up to B-. Good arm from the left side, but I'm not sold on his command yet.
14) Luke Jackson, RHP, Grade C+: I love this arm from the 2010 draft; he could end up being a much higher grade once he gets some innings in.
15) Cody Buckel, RHP, Grade C+: Like Jackson, another high school arm from '10 draft that I like a lot but need to see more data from .
16) Justin Grimm, RHP, Grade C+: Type of pitcher who could be more effective against wood in pro ball than metal in college.
17) Luis Sardinas, SS, Grade C+: Not as good as Profar, but not bad at all. Lots of growth potential on both sides of the game.
18) Roman Mendez, RHP, Grade C+: Lively arm acquired from Red Sox. May or may not develop, but ceiling is high.
19) Joe Wieland, RHP, Grade C+: Another guy who could break out; was excellent in August, throws strikes.
20) Miguel Velazquez, OF, Grade C+: Might drop to Grade C. Good tools, will be patient one more year.
OTHERS: Jorge Alfaro, C; Wilfredo Boscan, RHP; Fabio Castillo, RHP; Ovispo De Los Santos, RHP; Vincent DiFazio, C; Cody Eppley, RHP; Mark Hamburger, RHP; Jared Hoying, OF; Teodoro Martinez, OF; Carlos Melo, RHP; Joseph Ortiz, LHP; Jimmy Reyes, LHP; Josh Richmond, OF; Drew Robinson, OF-INF; Pedro Strop, RHP; Matt Thompson, RHP; Christian Villanueva, 3B.
This list is not quite finished. I have several undecided grades here, and spots 4-10 could all look very different once I get the grades locked down. But I am leaving for Arizona tomorrow, need to get some sleep, and want to get this posted so you guys can see it. Feel free to make cases for players you like (or against those you don't like), but no whining please.
The Rangers system has thinned out some and some of the bigger names did not have good seasons, but I expect they can recharge quickly, especially if the names from the 2010 draft live up to their expectations.
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I like Scheppers right were you got him. “B” is solid grade for guy with that Fastball/Curve combo. Has had some short coming (end of last year) but did not have hardly any time in the minors before going to AAA. Also the whole starting him in the pen moving him to starter while at the same time moving up a level. Also dad a great AFL last year. Still really like him either as a starter or a top end bullpen prospect.
interesting
Would bump Beltre to Grade B, over Scheppers but not necessarily over Olt. His biggest flaws at this point are issues with focus and consistency, with the first leading to the second. I have a long-term question on him too but I’m holding on it for now.
Would probably also bump Fabio Castillo to C+ . . .very impressive power arm who could shoot through the system if the command is there.
meh
Empty average guy whose skills have gone backwards. Always thought he was a 4th OF since he got into pro ball . . .got entirely too much major league playing time this year as a result of a small sample size last year.
I don’t mind him on a roster as a 4th OF, and lots of college draftees in the supplemental-2nd rounds fit that profile of very high floor/low ceiling. He’s also still pretty young and admittedly was pushed hard. At his age, I want him playing every day to see if he can put the skills together . . .but in the majors? Eh.
You know, it's very funny
There are a lot of bad things about Borbon, and the beginning of the season was very bad for him.
but there is still some encouraging things. Despite his poor arm he showed great range in centerfield. His average wasn’t awful, but it was very empty. He wasn’t any better first half vs second half. He had a big June, but not much outside of that. no real platoon split.
At this point, nice 5th outfielder/defensive replacement/pinch runner, with the potential to grow up to be Devon White.
LSJ (on Dallas Braden): I know him, and I think he's a psychotic lowlife.
Braden's grandmother: And I think calling him that is an insult to the psychotic lowlife community.
Profar first
Ballsy. I like it. I’m too high on Perez to pull a stunt like that, but the son of Judeska and Chesmond is turning some heads.
I’m surprised by Ramirez being as high as he is and Velasquez so much as making the list, but aside from that it looks solid.
"By MLB.TV, we can see J. Hamilton's homer, M. Young's clutch, and N. Feliz's explosive. All about Rangers things can be our interest"
--South Korean Rangers fan
Jackson
I can’t really argue a C+ but given some of your earlier comments on him, I thought he was one guy you might be bold with and maybe give a B-.
Love the Perez ranking
He is good but did not have a great year.
by King Billy Royal on Nov 2, 2010 12:11 AM EDT reply actions
I love your ranking of Mike Olt
He’s one of my favorite prospects to come out of the draft this year
…they should send down Huntington & Nutting, because they aren’t ready, either. - royshowell
Mike Olt
says that he’s rated too highly and that others in the organization should be above him.
:)
LSJ (on Dallas Braden): I know him, and I think he's a psychotic lowlife.
Braden's grandmother: And I think calling him that is an insult to the psychotic lowlife community.
Perez and Erlin at the same grade is pretty silly.
Perez has a much higher ceiling. More than one scout has said his raw stuff is outstanding.
101K in 99 IP doesn’t seem overmatched to me. 50 BB in 99 IP appears to me like he needs to refine his hard-to-hit stuff. He’s 19, with hard-to-hit stuff that grades high among scouts but shows a need refinement. That’s pretty much what a really good young prospect should have as a resume.
Erlin, OTOH, lives on his mature ability to mix the sequence of his good-but-not-great stuff. He has much smaller margin for error than Perez.
BTW, Perez is actually younger than Erlin and playing two levels above Erlin. He posted similar numbers last year at the level Erlin is now, but he did so with a better arsenal. I just don’t see how there is any way those two are ranked the same.
I’m glad the Rangers didn’t send Perez to the pitching wasteland in Bakersfield. He needed a bigger challenge.
I hope you’ll incorporate grade trends into your future prospect rankings. It will be fun to see Perez’s grade trend next offseason when it looks like: A-/B+/A. And, I truly think there probably is some added predictability to your projections when considering the grade trend.
Godspeed Mike Olt.
Perez still did not have a good season and Erlin was great.
Its not always about how filthy the stuff is. Being able to locate your pitches is just as important if not more important. How many times do pitchers with filthy stuff never get anywhere because they can’t control it. Erlin had 17 walks in 115 IP with only 89 hits. Perez walked 50 guys in 100 IP and gave up 117 Hits. I know they were at different levels but a walk every 2 innings isn’t gonna cut it. Its not like Erlin isn’t striking people out either. Perez still got the higher rank because of his potential, I think Sickels hit it spot on here.
by forloveofthegam3 on Nov 2, 2010 12:31 AM EDT up reply actions
Right. Of course, command is the key. I said that.
But, in the context of this grading system, the idea is that Grade A guys have a great likelihood of having a productive major league career.
We all know — it’s well published — it’s hard to do that with a fastball that’s borderline 90, even as a lefty. The odds are much more in favor of players that consistently pitch above 90 than below. That is the difference between these two prospects.
We would all love to see Erlin add 2 mph to his fastball, but the reality is that it is much more likely that Perez will gain command of his arsenal than it is that Erlin will add velocity.
Godspeed Mike Olt.
Lots of guys flame out who throw hard
Both from injury and from lack of command. (The former cannot be ignored, by the way. Pitchers who succeed through high velocity are more susceptible to injury.)
For me, Erlin’s command and pitchability give him the higher floor (I think he’s more likely to have an extended MLB career), but Perez’s stuff and velocity give him the higher ceiling (he could be an ace if everything goes right). On the balance, they have roughly the same value.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
If Perez's only gift were to "throw hard", I'd agree with you on this.
Everyone says he’s mentally mature beyond his years. He’s always had a great change. His curveball is really nice, but not something he controls all that well yet.
The stats this year just do not do justice to what his talent level is.
Perez’s floor is higher than Erlin’s right now and in the future. Perez could be a bullpen arm late next year on the combination of his fastball/changeup and makeup.
Godspeed Mike Olt.
I love the look of Perez on the mound
his poise, and his command of his off-speed and breaking ball. But in the two starts I saw him (one in 09 and one this year), I’m not sure I saw one swing and miss on a fastball. Very strange. He struck guys out, but they were either looking or swing on breaking balls.
Contrast that to when I saw Holland and Feliz in person and their stuff was just flat out over powering. I buy this grade and have thought he was slightly -SLIGHTLY- over rated the past year.
While I would NOT move Holland in a deal for say, Greinke, I would do this package in a heartbeat:
Perez, Hunter, Harrison, Beltre and Davis.
Jack Daddy
laughable
if you think Holland and parts are going to get you Greinke.
I doubt the Royals make a trade for Hellickson AND Jennings.
And Holland can’t sniff either of their jocks.
by apoxonbothyourhouses on Nov 3, 2010 2:48 AM EDT up reply actions
The stats can't ignored
They aren’t everything, but they are an important factor. It was an awful season, and there’s no way around that. I also have a gut feeling that Erlin will do better at double A ball than Perez did if that’s where he pitches next year.
Guys who have “good enough” stuff—aren’t afraid to attack hitters—locate all their pitches—they are always going to have an easier time adjusting to higher levels of competition, and that, to me, defines “higher floor”. We saw the same thing with Jordan Lyles; he succeeded at double A where Perez failed, even though his stuff is significantly worse, because of his command, pitchability, and poise on the mound.
What makes you think if Perez can’t get double A hitters out now, he’ll be able to get MLB hitters out late next year?
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
101K in 99 IP doesn’t seem overmatched to me. 50 BB in 99 IP appears to me like he needs to refine his hard-to-hit stuff. He’s 19, with hard-to-hit stuff that grades high among scouts but shows a need refinement. That’s pretty much what a really good young prospect should have as a resume.
What it shows me is a guy who was timid. I didn’t get to see him pitch but from the looks, being young for the league, he might have been a little afraid to attack hitters. When you pitch to the edges, you throw a lot more balls and walk a lot more guys. I think next year at the same level he’ll have a lot more confidence and in turn, go right at guys.
De Los Santos
Where is he going to start next year?
I hope he lands in Frisco at least some time next year, would like to see him pitch.
by forloveofthegam3 on Nov 2, 2010 12:33 AM EDT reply actions
Deglan moved to the OF?
Buster Posey>
"I thought he was going to punch me and I was totally accepting of it. I was planning a reason to thank him if he did." Brian Wilson on Buster Posey
Mike Olt says "Thank You"
Please check out the charity that I run, Fort Worth Music Outreach@ www.fortworthmusicoutreach.org
Mike Olt appreciates being ranked 5th but feels others have ben in the organization longer and deserve to be ranked ahead of him.
Godspeed Mike Olt.
the Mike Olt nice guy thing is a meme
When you're drowning, you don't say 'I would be incredibly pleased if someone would have the foresight to notice me drowning and come and help me,' you just scream.
Also, on Mike Olt, I don't think folks are worried about whether he'll have HR power; they're worried
about whether he’ll hit consistently enough to avoid being a .250/.340/.450 type.
Godspeed Mike Olt.
I was going to suggest the same
Contact ability seems to be more in question than power with Olt. The work that was done with his swing and Hoying’s this year deserves a medal though. Here’s hoping Olt can muster .275.
by blackoutyears on Nov 2, 2010 2:12 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah that's what I was thinking
I didn’t really follow why that would be a bad thing.
http://bullpenbanter.com
Awesome?
It would be adequate. I don’t think anyone would argue that Scott Brosius was “awesome”, 1998 heroics or no. lol
by blackoutyears on Nov 2, 2010 11:03 PM EDT up reply actions
For a prospect, it's pretty awesome
That’s something like a 3-5 WAR player, which is an above average every day regular. If you guarantee me that and no more from any prospect, even the highest-ceiling kid in the minors, I’ll take it in a heartbeat.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
3-5?
That’s a pretty big swing, and it’s pure projection. And presumably that triple slash is roughly an average year. I think selling people that a guy who hits that line on average, and worse (he’d have to do so for it to be average), is awesome will be tough. Solid? Yes. Awesome? No.
by blackoutyears on Nov 3, 2010 1:13 AM EDT up reply actions
You could not be more wrong.
I think about 20 teams would love to have that kind of offense-defense combo from their 3B. Maybe more than that. Only 11 3B had more than 3 WAR in 2010, only 5 at 5WAR and up.
When you're drowning, you don't say 'I would be incredibly pleased if someone would have the foresight to notice me drowning and come and help me,' you just scream.
I'm sure
I could be more wrong. For instance, I could be wrong. I don’t define solid as awesome. Get over it. I’m intrigued by your taking Orem’s 3-5 WAR projection and running with it like it’s gospel, and using that as the basis from which to debate me. Highly scientific. lol
by blackoutyears on Nov 3, 2010 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions
I didn't predict 3-5 WAR
What I was saying was that if he did have that batting line with average to above average defense, that is the quality of player he would be. Where he’d fall in that range, would depend on how good his defense is.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
I know
and 2 WAR in defense is a lot. The defensive component of the WAR projection is the most volatile part, right? I’d say it’s worth being conservative with estimates of how much WAR Olt’s defense will provide. Offensively I could see him looking a lot like Young did this year but I wouldn’t be surprised if the strikeout rate was higher and he has a lot of work to do if he’s going to muster Young’s contact rate.
I suspect when the original post said “only”, it was more in reference to the .250 avg, and everyone is seizing on the OPS. Nothing wrong with that, but does anyone really think Olt is going to post an OBP 90 points higher than his batting avg? I’d take exception to that projection rather than going on about how that OPS = X WAR. The projection seems debatable, so why bother extrapolating from it without discussion?
by blackoutyears on Nov 3, 2010 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions
He's a patient hitter
That was the book on him before the draft, and he confirmed it with his play (roughly 13% walk rate) in low A. I don’t think a walk rate a little above average is an unreasonable expectation.
And you’re right that 2 WAR (20 runs) in defense is a lot, but the positional adjustment for third base is +2.5 runs, and for some reason it seems more common to have +15 run defense at third base than at most positions. Maybe I’m just thinking of the duo of Longoria and Zimmerman, who I think of as the two best third basemen in the game, who both appear to be roughly +15 run defenders. That’s almost 2 WAR right there, after the positional adjustment.
(By the way, I’m not in any way saying Olt is/will be as good a fielder as Zimmerman and Longoria, but he is reported to have a good glove, and I suppose there’s a small, best case possibility he could be that kind of plus-plus defender there.)
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
What qualifies
as a little above average walk rate? Young walks about 8% of the time but is an above average contact hitter. He posted a .330 OBP despite hitting .284, about 45 point difference. How good would Olt have to be to post a .340 OBP if he’s hitting .250? I think that’s well above average, especially for a guy with a below average batting avg.
I think Olt profiles as a solid defender from what I’ve seen, and I’ve argued against those (Law comes to mind) who say that he doesn’t have the actions. Longo and Zim are exceptional defenders, and I think we’d know if Olt was on their level as there’d be no doubt about his ability to stick at 3B from any quarter.
by blackoutyears on Nov 4, 2010 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions
Well, let's see
Mark Reynolds batted .260 in 2009 with an 11.5% walk rate, which is just a tick above average (patience-wise), and his OBP was .349 that season. So that should give you a reference point.
I don’t think projecting a walk rate around 10-12% is unreasonable.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
I don’t think projecting a walk rate around 10-12% is unreasonable.
I think projecting any major league walk rate based on short season perfofmance is somewhat unreasonable, but we’ll see. Reynolds walked even more this year and had 120+ points of separation between BA and OBP; boy was that sub-.200 batting average awesome. Not exactly a guy I’d make a case from as he’s pretty freakish.
by blackoutyears on Nov 5, 2010 6:32 PM EDT up reply actions
I think you have some strange ideas about Brosius and 3B
First of all, Brosius’ career OPS is .744, and don’t forget he played in an era with more offense, so his career OPS+ is just 94.
In 2010, AL 3B as a whole hit a .729 mark — just BELOW the League as a whole. Let me repeat that — the average 3B was a slightly BELOW average bat in 2010. If you have a 3B with a .790 mark and he plays good defense, you have a star player. A .790 OPS would have ranked 4th in the AL among 3B, just ahead of Michael Young. Young was a 2.7 WAR player this year. How valuable would he be with plus defense?
When it comes to offense, 3B aren’t much more on average than 2B.
When you're drowning, you don't say 'I would be incredibly pleased if someone would have the foresight to notice me drowning and come and help me,' you just scream.
I think you're making my case actually
Do you expect Olt to hit like Mike Young? How much better would his defense have to be than Young’s to post the same WAR if he hits only .250? I don’t think he’s a lock to somehow post an OBP 90 points higher than that either, so you can probably project a lower OPS while you’re at it.
Your argument about the average 3B reminds me of similar discussions regarding SS, which is at such a low point in terms of offensive production that people will extol the virtues of anyone who can OPS .700 there. Hitting like the average SS does at this point in baseball history doesn’t make you awesome, it just means the bar is so low that you have a job. The bar for awesomeness is context independent, or it doesn’t mean much.
by blackoutyears on Nov 3, 2010 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions
No, it means
That if you can start at shortstop at the major league level, your defense is “awesome”, in the grand scheme of baseball. If your defense is that good and you can hit like an average player from all positions? That’s a pretty fantastic player.
Because defense is, as a matter of fact, part of baseball, which is why some positions hold more value than others.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
defense is, as a matter of fact, part of baseball
I think you can make your point without the condescension. SS is at a low in terms of offensive production. You can assume that defense is being emphasized so much that better-hitting SS’s are being sidelined for the best defenders, or you can assume, more logically, that the prospects at that position in recent years have simply been inferior hitters. Regardless, there have been times where the production out of the position (offense and defense) has been better than it is now, and it’s the peak production at a position that determines what is awesome, not whatever passes for good at the moment. Arguing that a guy will be a league average player today does not preclude their being a below average player in an historical sense. I’m not going to call someone awesome if they’re simply average for their position historically.
by blackoutyears on Nov 3, 2010 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Well Young's WAR this year was 2.7 and RAR 26.1
Considering his offense (.774 OPS) provided a RAR of 5.4 and his defense provided a -5.4 with the majority of his RAR was provided by replacement lvl and positional adjustment the difference is valuation in O and D will probably not be as difficult as you might expect.
I think you are underestimating how poor MY defense is at 3B.
For his Olt to match the differential all he would have to produce a net positive between fielding and offense and then make up 1 to 2 runs to make up for Young getting 700+ PA annually. No where near as difficult as it seems. As bad as Brandon Inge was this year he was still 2.1 WAR player.
JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook
Wow
The context here is 3B. This discussion originated with someone saying Olt would be a .790OPS type as if that wasn’t good. It IS GOOD. Quite good for a 3B. Upper level echelon for a 3B, ESPECIALLY with Olt’s defensive chops.
At NO POINT in this discussion did I project Olt to have a .790 OPS on average. I was merely reacting to the presumption that a .790 OPS from a 3B is not good. A .790 OPS 3B with good defense would deserve all-star consideration.
It’s way too early to know what Olt will be, of course. But if he played good defense while hitting “only” an OPS in the low to mid 700s, he’d be a very nice player.
When you're drowning, you don't say 'I would be incredibly pleased if someone would have the foresight to notice me drowning and come and help me,' you just scream.
I agree in essence
and as I said above, I think the original projection’s OBP as compared to the batting avg is highly optimistic. There are a lot of way to get to a given OPS, and it says a lot that people would rather discuss extrapolations from a (very likely) flawed OPS than begin by scrutinizing the underlying assumption. Garbage in, garbage out.
I’m a big Olt fan, and I’m the first person to defend the Joe Randas, Scott Brosiuses and Casey Blakes as underrated players, but I’m not going to afford them the adjective “awesome” simply because their performance isn’t bad by a diminished standard.
by blackoutyears on Nov 3, 2010 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions
You've misunderstood this entire series of posts, though
Go back up to rooster’s post:
about whether he’ll hit consistently enough to avoid being a .250/.340/.450 type.
I’d bet very few here expect Olt to hit quite that much on average over his career. The whole point to this subthread is not that Olt is going to be that player, but that a player with those slash lines and good defense would be very desirable and not something “to avoid”. If you want to parse words and substitute something else for “awesome” that’s fine. But to me, it would be an awesome success in drafting and player development to get that kind of player in that draft spot.
When you're drowning, you don't say 'I would be incredibly pleased if someone would have the foresight to notice me drowning and come and help me,' you just scream.
No
I haven’t missed the point at all. I’m aware of the WAR patrols penchant for jumping anyone who posts something like that, and I disagreed with both the projection (unrealistic) and the assumptions of future WAR as they’re based on a sort of bizarre triple slash ans assumptions about Olt’s defensive ability that seem incredibly vague.
by blackoutyears on Nov 4, 2010 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions
I haven't mentioned WAR in my replies.
Except to say that Young managed a 2.7 WAR with very poor defense dragging him down.
When you're drowning, you don't say 'I would be incredibly pleased if someone would have the foresight to notice me drowning and come and help me,' you just scream.
OPS, WAR, whatever
You’re still basing your contention on a sort of bizarre projection, rather than examining the projection itself. that’s your prerogative, but I reserve the right to take exception with the idea that Olt is going to hit .250 and post a .790 OPS, or that a guy who has below average batting avg is awesome simply because he walks a lot. Like I said, there are many roads to a given OPS, and they are not all equal imo. Again, YMMV.
by blackoutyears on Nov 5, 2010 6:28 PM EDT up reply actions
I am not talking about Olt's projection, though
That is what I mean when I say you’re missing my point.
I am talking about the idea that a 3B, no matter what his name, who puts up a .790 OPS with plus defense is just average or nothing to get excited about. This has nothing to do with Olt. Way above rooster posted that some were worried:
about whether he’ll hit consistently enough to avoid being a .250/.340/.450 type.
People responded that such a “type” would be very desirable. They were not saying that Olt would be such a player, or that Olt would put up those numbers.
I myself do not expect Olt to be anywhere near that good. I’d be surprised it he makes a meaningful impact in the majors. He’s off to a good start, but he’s got a long way to go and his promising start doesn’t change my expectations much yet.
When you're drowning, you don't say 'I would be incredibly pleased if someone would have the foresight to notice me drowning and come and help me,' you just scream.
I know
exactly where you’ve been coming from, but think it’s odd that people will seize on WAR or OPS, which are, as even the proponents of those yardsticks will admit, blunt instruments. I don’t get hung up on batting avg, especially in the era of BABIP, but it’s worth debating how the components of OBP should be weighted (much less OPS) and valued in a case such as this. If this hypothetical 3B was a true .250 hitter, how do folks see his value as compared to a .285 hitter who posts the same .340 OBP? What’s the value of putting the ball in play safely more of the time? I’ve seen several times where someone is saying that a .790 OPS 3B with good defense is an All-Star, but players don’t get voted in to the ASG on their OPS, and pragmatically speaking a .250 hitter would probably get (perhaps unfairly) snubbed more often than not.
I’ve always defended 3B who aren’t well-rounded but who clearly produce value. Look up the much-reviled Edwin Encarnacion sometime. His full season OPSes are uniformly good thanks to solid on-base ability and good power, and I have no idea what his WARs (depending on preferred WAR) were for those year, but I assume that they’re dragged down by his defense. I love the guy to death, but he’s not awesome. He OPSed .787 in about half a season this year, which sounds great until you realize that the OPS was driven almost entirely by the SLG component, and he posted abysmal .244/.305 avg and OBP numbers. Not all OPSes are created equal. Orem mentioned Mark Reynolds above, who posted a respectable .753 OPS, but I don’t think anyone is going to argue that a guy who puts the ball in play safely less than 20% of the time (bad luck or not) and strikes out 200+ times a year is awesome. hard to value? Absolutely. Awesome? I think not.
Bryan Smith is using projected WAR for his must-follow prospect lists, and I’m interested to see what his methodology is as that seems a pretty dicey proposition. Defense is difficult to value in the minors, and predicting future defensive performance seems highly problematic.
by blackoutyears on Nov 9, 2010 11:30 AM EST up reply actions
Good points
I used WAR and OPS here just as a quick and dirty way of discussing value. Of course when building a team you’d look at much more than that. I think I’d also consider a player’s value in the role he will play on that particular team. If the Rangers continue to emphasize pitching and good defense (and I see no reason they wouldn’t as long as Daniels is there) than Olt fits right in whether he bats .250 or .285.
I’m starting to defend Julio Borbon on Ranger sites for the same reason. He hit poorly for much of 2010 and some fans are ready to assume he’ll never hit and should start. I say that even though is bat was below average, his overall value last year for a CF was still about average because his defense and speed help. And I see no reason to assume he won’t get a little better with the bat over the next couple years. The Rangers would be wise to give him that chance, because if he pans out you can put Hamilton back in LF and more time at DH, increasing the overall value/production of their outfielders.
By the same token, if Olt’s modest bat and plus defense can come close to the stronger bat and weak defense they now get from Young, he’ll be a nice player there as Young rides off into the sunset (or at least sees his role reduced greatly).
When you're drowning, you don't say 'I would be incredibly pleased if someone would have the foresight to notice me drowning and come and help me,' you just scream.
I’m starting to defend Julio Borbon
I’ve been holding out hope for him too. In my limited looks I did see some bad routes, but the defensive tools are clear. I saw Drew Stubbs make some pretty boneheaded decisions but there’s no doubting that glove.
I routinely defend players like Bourbon, and I’m a staunch defender of Mr. Olt as I followed him coming into the draft. There was an array of opinion about his future, but I felt that his explanations about the changes he made in his plate approach half way through the season and his recovery from injuries made sense. I think it would be hard for him to be a worse defender than Young, and I favor defense over hitting at 3B, so he could conceivably post a lower WAR and still “feel” more valuable to me. Per the original triple-slash, I think it would have been best if the poster had simply stated what was the implied crux of of his projection, which asks, ‘What if Olt is only a .250 hitter?" Rather than get derailed by the OPS/WAR debate it makes more sense to address his likeliest issue, which is closing the holes in his swing against major league pitching. I’m not as sanguine as you that a .250 avg will fly, but that’s me.
by blackoutyears on Nov 9, 2010 3:16 PM EST up reply actions
Olt vs. Mendonca
I think Rangers fans were quite skeptical of Olt at first because the reports sounded vaguely like Mendonca last year, and Mendonca doesn’t look like much. The Chris Davis Experience factors in there as well.
Now that Olt has gotten off to a good start I think Ranger fans are so relieved he’s a real prospect that we might get a bit too excited for a while. His walk totals are encouraging, but that many Ks still make me a bit nervous.
When you're drowning, you don't say 'I would be incredibly pleased if someone would have the foresight to notice me drowning and come and help me,' you just scream.
Ranger fans are so relieved he’s a real prospect
Heh. Happens to the best of us. Maybe it helps that non-Ranger fans like him a lot too. K’s were an issue at UCONN, and may continue to be an issue all the way up the ladder. I’m with you on his defense potentially excusing contact/whiff struggles.
by blackoutyears on Nov 10, 2010 7:10 PM EST up reply actions
Sounds like Joe Randa
and i also don’t make very much of a one year offensive drop off. I’m not sure the era has changed so much. It may be that there just aren’t that many good 3Bs now.
He seems like a decent prospect. Sure, a lot of teams would take that. I wouldn’t call that putative line a star.
It may be that there just aren’t that many good 3Bs now.
Exactly. You risk elevating mediocrity when context is indexed purely against current standards.
by blackoutyears on Nov 3, 2010 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions
If your position is that 3B is unusually low these days
I’m not sure I agree. I think most people have the idea that 3B are big bats like 1B, but I think that’s true much less often than perception.
Just doing a quick and dirty scroll through league splits at Baseball Ref, I went back to 1980. In 31 seasons I could only find 5 or 6 where the 3B production was closer to 1B than 2B. It fluctuated with league offense, of course, but was usually much closer to the up the middle position than the other corner.
What time are referring to that doesn’t meet mediocre “current standards”? It looks to me like 3B should be viewed as bats that are just slightly more productive than your average 2B.
When you're drowning, you don't say 'I would be incredibly pleased if someone would have the foresight to notice me drowning and come and help me,' you just scream.
And here's a study of the defensive spectrum
showing that down through the minor league levels this holds true: 3B are about league average bats.
When you're drowning, you don't say 'I would be incredibly pleased if someone would have the foresight to notice me drowning and come and help me,' you just scream.
I can assure you
that I am not under the impression that the average 3B hits like the average 1B, or even the average OF. I’m also not surprised that 2B, which has increasingly been required to be a position of solid offensive production, and 3B are fairly close. Nothing I’ve said is based on misconceptions about what to expect from a 3B. It’s about the fact that producing an average player is nice, not “awesome”. YMMV.
by blackoutyears on Nov 4, 2010 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions
But that's my entire point.
A 3B hitting a .790 OPS and providing plus defense is NOT an average player! That is the point of my comments. And no, I’m not saying Olt will do that, it’s way too early to tell what he might be. Again, I’m merely responding to the idea that a player fitting that description is a disappointment (as hinted at by rooster above.)
Again, I just do not see how you could consider a 3B with that slash line and plus defense an average player. Only 9 3B hit that OPS mark this year, and maybe 4 or 5 of them play plus defense. That’s not average!
When you're drowning, you don't say 'I would be incredibly pleased if someone would have the foresight to notice me drowning and come and help me,' you just scream.
See above
If you don’t really buy the projection, why even bother diagnosing it’s “awesomeness”? I don’t think I’ll get a 25% raise in pay but let’s argue about whether it would be awesome if I did.
by blackoutyears on Nov 5, 2010 6:34 PM EDT up reply actions
It would have been just a quickly passing point
about the relative value of 3B if you hadn’t kept redirecting the argument to be about Olt himself instead of the relative value of 3B.
Still, I enjoy a good vigorous discussion, so I don’t mind one bit.
When you're drowning, you don't say 'I would be incredibly pleased if someone would have the foresight to notice me drowning and come and help me,' you just scream.
I definitely enjoy it
as well, and I appreciate that you can make your points without being insulting about it. I was actually trying to discuss both reasonable projections for Olt as well as the hypothetical triple-slash and it’s value and I probably ended up just muddying the waters as a result. I should no doubt have tackled the points separately. Of the two prongs, I’m probably slightly more intrigued by folks’ comfort in projecting WAR or in extolling a given OPS without scutinizing the underlying components.
by blackoutyears on Nov 9, 2010 11:35 AM EST up reply actions
.790 OPS with good defense
I’d love for that to happen. That would be amazing.
When you're drowning, you don't say 'I would be incredibly pleased if someone would have the foresight to notice me drowning and come and help me,' you just scream.
I'm so aroused right now
"By MLB.TV, we can see J. Hamilton's homer, M. Young's clutch, and N. Feliz's explosive. All about Rangers things can be our interest"
--South Korean Rangers fan
Down, boy.
sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew
by alexwithclass on Nov 2, 2010 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions
You give me that at third base for the Rangers next year with average to above-average defense
I would be insanely happy.
I've been trying to convince my family of the magic of cumin. They won't listen to me. It makes almost everything better.- PhilKid3, 8/16/2010.
Braden Tullis
I feel like he should at least be in the honorable mention section. He’s pitched quite well and though I don’t see him as a star I feel his ground ball stuff is going to translate into a back of the rotation role eventually, with an outside shot at more than that.
It will be interesting to see how Erlin’s stuff plays at higher levels. Seems like he’s a high floor guy with a decent but not stellar ceiling right now.
When you're drowning, you don't say 'I would be incredibly pleased if someone would have the foresight to notice me drowning and come and help me,' you just scream.
thanks
he’s a favorite of mine. I almost view him as the pitching equivalent of Moreland, a guy easy to overlook.
When you're drowning, you don't say 'I would be incredibly pleased if someone would have the foresight to notice me drowning and come and help me,' you just scream.
So Erlin
sounds like Tommy Hunter part 2?
This team do what it do ~ Ron Washington
I didn't see a reason to go out there 'n ack-a-fool ~ Ron Washington on the Ben and Skin show
No, I think his ceiling is higher than Hunter's
Hunter is a great 5th starter. Erlin is a notch above that I think, mid-rotation ceiling.
When you're drowning, you don't say 'I would be incredibly pleased if someone would have the foresight to notice me drowning and come and help me,' you just scream.
I was surprised Villanueva got placed in the C range
Given the early reports on him, I have him pegged as a B- guy.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
David Perez is a major sleeper at this point.
What he managed to do this year at his age, wow.
I've been trying to convince my family of the magic of cumin. They won't listen to me. It makes almost everything better.- PhilKid3, 8/16/2010.
He'll still only rank #5 on this list next year, because
everyone will be arguing about whether Martin Perez or Profar should be at the top, even though they will both be grade A.
Then there will be the argument over whether Tanner Scheppers or Matt Purke should be #3.
So, the #1 prospect in the NWL will be no higher than #5 on the Rangers list next year.
Godspeed Mike Olt.
How does Purke come back in?
I've been trying to convince my family of the magic of cumin. They won't listen to me. It makes almost everything better.- PhilKid3, 8/16/2010.
Better to be a dreamer than a pessimist, I s'pose...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qU_9zTD9B98&feature=related
Apparently there's an epilepsy warning on this video. But it's so incredibly cool.
by Dan Strittmatter on Nov 2, 2010 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions
Wow, prospecting is easy huh.
Couple of grade A’s, Sheppers back to his best, Perez no.1 in the NWL and Purke re-ups in the 2011 draft. Might as well get John to write it all up now.
by TheQuestforMerlin on Nov 2, 2010 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions
So, the trouble with the internet is that neither deadpan nor pipe dream communicate well.
But, yeah, if he wouldn’t mind just fast forwarding to 2012 that would be great.
BTW, the Royals in 2012 should become interesting, huh? Good luck to them. I would much rather the Rangers play their post season as far away from the coasts as possible.
Godspeed Mike Olt.
2011
will be dreadful for the Royals.
2012 I don’t think will be a whole lot better… now 2013 and 2014? looking up!
I could see 2012 working out good....
at least one of the top young hitters should be killing the ball by then and at least one of th pitchers will begin to form a scary 1-2 with Greinke by then. I could see them playing .500 ball and coming in second in the division.
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
And a year ago, we all discovered
That Strasburg was a lock for the 2011 Cy Young Award! Happy days!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qU_9zTD9B98&feature=related
Apparently there's an epilepsy warning on this video. But it's so incredibly cool.
by Dan Strittmatter on Nov 2, 2010 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions
Ross - Erlin - Perez
All LHPs. Is there any considerable comparison to Dwyer – Montgomery – Duffy – Lamb? You’ve got two B+’s and a B- there. Where would they fit in the food chain of LHPs in the Royals/Rangers system?
I'll take a stab
Lamb
Monty
Duffy
Perez
Dwyer
Erlin
—Small Gap—
Ross
If everybody likes you, then either no one knows anything about you, or you're dead.
Brings up a good point.
I’m pretty sure I would take Dwyer before Erlin…
Bullpen Banter
www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor
Agreed
I like Erlin a good bit, don’t get me wrong, but ranking him as a B+ at this point to me seems too strong. You’d have to be looking at him as a lefty version of Jeremy Hellickson to rank him that I high I think, and while that might be a possible outcome this seems to early to make that jump. He could look very different against more advanced hitters. I have him at a B and somewhere in the 70-100 range on my top 100 list(haven’t totally sorted out the last 30 or so names).
http://bullpenbanter.com
Same here
Erlin’s a very good prospect, but he doesn’t have the same margin for error with his stuff Dwyer does, and Dwyer’s already made it up to AA with comparable success. Erlin could add another tick or two to his fastball or his command could just be that damn good, but have to give the benefit of the doubt to the guy with a better present arm until you see the “finesse” guy maintain the results against more advanced hitting.
I don't think he's quite a finesse guy
Left-handed fastball around 90mph with an above average curve and potentially an above average change is pretty good stuff. It’s more like his stuff is a tick above average, and he has finesse/poise/pitchability/etc.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
Why I used the quotations
I’d term his stuff, on whole, as solid average right now (with the potential to play up a bit more). Regardless though, with a fastball that is playable but not especially notable, he has a bit more to prove as he moves up the ladder, particularly as more advanced hitters lay off the curve more and try to sit on the fastball. Don’t get me wrong, I believe in him, but with guys like him, it’s always harder to say for certain how advanced hitters will see his stuff, and can’t afford to lose anything off his arm (which pitchers of course are always at risk of).
Actually looking at it a little more
He reminds me of a left handed version of my boy Jordan Lyles. Stuff that doesn’t jump of the page against the guys around him, but he knows how to pitch, knows how to get guys out and is fairly advanced for a HS pitcher. He might be just slightly less athletic and projectable that Lyles, but I actually like the aggressive B+ grade and might move him above Dwyer on my earlier list.
If everybody likes you, then either no one knows anything about you, or you're dead.
Sounds like the issue is you think too much of Lyles
Bullpen Banter
www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor
It's a issue
that I think a guy is much better than the average person does? My bad that most people have spent 3 years trying to explain away Lyles’ performance to go with decent scouting reports.
I’m just making note that everything about Erlin reminds me of Jordan, and that I respect John’s aggression on the B+ grade, which is the same grade he gave Lyles at the same level with a similar performance.
If everybody likes you, then either no one knows anything about you, or you're dead.
Arguing that a guy reminds you of Jordan Lyles but slightly less projectable and athletic doesn’t really do much to convince me he should be placed above Chris Dwyer.
Bullpen Banter
www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor
Projectability
Lyles is 6’4 with room to add muscle, Erlin is listed at 6’ even and already pretty sturdy looking. Lyles is one of the most athletic pitchers in the minors. He can easily dunk a basketball, ran a 4.6 40 and had a football scholarship offer from every school in South Carolina, North Carolina and Georgia as a WR. Saying Erlin is slightly less projectable and athletic than Lyles is not a knock on him IMO
If everybody likes you, then either no one knows anything about you, or you're dead.
I'm not sure many would agree with parts of that assessment.
Regardless, this has just as much to do with Dwyer. I like Erlin plenty.
Whatever points you give Erlin for athleticism, upside, projection, etc… I just don’t see how you aren’t forced to give Dwyer even higher marks in those areas.
Bullpen Banter
www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor
We'll agree to disagree on Lyles
and I realize I’m in the minority on my assessment, which I’m fine with.
For what its worth, I have Dwyer as a B+ as well. He’s just 2.5 years older than Erlin, and I expect Erlin to continue to develop and exceed Dwyer. Consider my putting him ahead weighing more of a future prediction than current tangibles.
If everybody likes you, then either no one knows anything about you, or you're dead.
Uh... I'm not anti-Lyles or anything. I had him #48 last year.
Which was higher than many. I’m not sure I’m disagreeing with you on him at all. In fact, I didn’t remember you were higher on him than most or whatever when I responded to your original statement. I just thought it was a funny thing to say considering the relative qualities of Dwyer & Erlin and the ceiling, etc… of Lyles.
Consider my putting him ahead weighing more of a future prediction than current tangibles.
This is how I think everyone should rank prospects all the time. If you think you’re going to like Player A better than Player B “a year from now” (which I hear a lot) just rank them that way now! We aren’t just grading performance here.
All the same… Dwyer has a lot of projection left as well and a considerably higher ceiling than Erlin for my money. YMMV.
Bullpen Banter
www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor
That makes more sense
It seemed like you were really down on Lyles, that why I made the points I did.
The times I saw Dwyer when he was here at Clemson, he had a lot of problems with control. It seems like he’s started to figure out some of that, but I want to see him improve for another year before seeing him as FOR material. Erlin has more time to improve his stock. That’s the only reason I rank him just ahead.
If everybody likes you, then either no one knows anything about you, or you're dead.
Cody Buckel
He has to be a B-, and be ranked much higher – I would rank him no lower than #8. He could easily be the best pitching prospect in their whole system. The kid not only has electric stuff and a 3-pitch arsenal, but he already has an advanced feel for “pitching” that you don’t see even in pitchers coming out of 3 years in college. I’m jealous that the Rangers saw that and drafted him so highly.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Tell us more about him.
Most Rangers fans know very little about him.
I've been trying to convince my family of the magic of cumin. They won't listen to me. It makes almost everything better.- PhilKid3, 8/16/2010.
Agreed
I would love to here more on his arsenal of pitches.
by King Billy Royal on Nov 2, 2010 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah
Looking at what he did in the [uselessly] small sample size of 5 innings in Rookie ball this year can only please me so much.
Right
It seems like ever time his name comes up there’s at least one person who gushes about him, without much explanation.
Please check out the charity that I run, Fort Worth Music Outreach@ www.fortworthmusicoutreach.org
Your wish is my command
Here’s what I wrote about Buckel right before the 2010 draft. I wanted the Giants to take him in the 2nd or 3rd round, but the Rangers got him right before the Giants picked in round 2.
Cody Buckel: RHP, HS – Calif. (6’1", 175) (DOB=6/92)
I believe that I have Buckel rated much higher than anybody else. The more I read about and see of him, the more sure I am that he is the true hidden gem of this HS pitching class. This kid reminds me so much of Tim Lincecum in his mechanics, athleticism, competitiveness, knowledge and attitude that it’s eerie. His results have been hard to argue with, with a WHIP and K/BB ratio in the Strasburgian range. His stat line this year was:
IP=65, W/L=10-1, ERA=.54, H=26, BB=14, K=104, WHIP= .61, BB/9= 1.94, K/9= 14.4, and K/BB= 7.4!!!!
Check out these 2 videos below and the first thing that should stand out is the exaggerated long stride mimicking Lincecum. The 2nd thing that I see is that he generates great arm-speed for his size.
Buckel vid#1
Buckel is still growing, his father grew 3 inches after the age of 18, so he’ll most likely get a little taller and much stronger in the next few years. He already can throw his FB up to 94 mph (and that’s a 5 mph increase over 2009). But, and this is why I feel that he’s so unique, he knows his own limitations well enough that he keeps his FB in the 90-91 mph range. He realizes that his FB flattens out and loses its movement when he tries to throw it at his top speed, but in the low 90s it has a wicked natural late sink.
Not only does Buckel have an advanced arsenal of pitches, but, at the tender age of 17, he already has learned the fine art of pitching. He doesn’t try to hump every pitch to the plate as hard as he can throw it in order to impress the scouts and their radar guns. Instead, he throws a deceptively easy-looking sinker that eats up bats and keeps the ball in the catcher’s glove or in the infield. Check out this Q&A that he had about a week ago (May 2010) and you’ll see that he understands how to maximize his stuff and “pitch” a game:
Buckel Q&A
Finally, here are some more scouting reports and updates from a local scout that watched him grow up. Note that this scout starts out last Fall by placing his ceiling as Mike Leake, but ends up raising that to Dan Haren and Orel Hershiser by this Spring. I’m even more optimistic, and put his ceiling as Lincecum with a bit less velocity and less of an ability to work high in the zone, but a better ability to work low in the zone with his sinker.
Buckel scouting report#1
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
by Fla-Giant on Nov 2, 2010 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions 4 recs
I like it.
I've been trying to convince my family of the magic of cumin. They won't listen to me. It makes almost everything better.- PhilKid3, 8/16/2010.
Thanks for this
good work.
"By MLB.TV, we can see J. Hamilton's homer, M. Young's clutch, and N. Feliz's explosive. All about Rangers things can be our interest"
--South Korean Rangers fan
Klima
is responsible for a lot of the Buckel buzz, and I’m not surprised to find his links above. I love what I’ve seen of Buckel in video and I won’t be surprised if he follows in the footsteps of guys like Odorizzi and Skaggs, players who got less acclaim during their draft only to “break out” after a couple of years in the minors. Buckel probably has more present pitchability than either of them did at the same stage. The Haren comp is highly intriguing.
by blackoutyears on Nov 3, 2010 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions
No relation
But I’d be happy to adopt him for a small percentage of his future earnings. LOL. I Just really liked what I saw from the kid when I was researching players for my 2010 draft preview posting that I did for McCoveyChronicles. I made a “draft board” of 19 players that I wanted the Giants to target in the first 5 rounds. Buckel was #6 on my list. I did the same type of writeup on all 19 prospects that you saw above for Buckel. It was merely a matter of doing a simple cut-and-paste, and a few updates for the post above. For the record, I targeted Buckel after first seeing his video clip on the mlb.com site, then found more in-depth info on him on Klima’s, and other, sites.
Here was my list of targets, in order (this wasn’t a list of how I ranked these guys with respect to all the other players available, they were just the guys that I felt would pan out in the Giants farm system and would be available to them sometime in the first 5 rounds):
Christian Colon
Dylan Covey
James Paxton
Barret Loux
Antohny Ranaudo
Buckel
Cam Bedrosian
Tyler Holt
Rob Segedin
Mike Olt
Hunter Morris
Garin Cecchini
Mike Foltynewicz
Drew Vettleson,
Mike Lorenzen
Jake Skole
Peter Tago
Chad Lewis
Vince Velazquez
Needless to say, I was shocked that guys like Colon, Loux, Skole, Folty, Tago, and Bedrosian went off the board as early as they did. On the other hand, I couldn’t believe that Paxton, Holt, and Lorenzen lasted as long as they did – especially Lorenzen. I was screaming at my computer for the Giants to take him in the 4th through 7th rounds.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
You were surprised that Paxton fell?
Why? He had barely pitched after the NCAA screwed him over and when he did, he was underwhelming.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
Yeah, I still am
Here you have a LHP who had thrown a plus FB that sat 92-93 and touched 96 over a full college season. You can never have ehough power liefties in your system. He also had an above-average slider/curve, and a feel for a changeup. He had an ideal physical size and no history of arm problems. Sure he hadn’t pitched competitively for a prolonged time (but that was actually a plus in my book – less mileage on the arm). He seemed to be a good bet for a bargain in the 2nd-4th round. If you could sign him and get him into camp then it should only take a bit of patience and some timely coaching to get him back on track. He didn’t lose the ability to pitch by sitting out of competition. Do you give up on a pitcher just because he has Tommy John surgery?
Little did I know that he’s still a complete head-case when it comes to signing bonuses. He’s willing to ruin and delay his career for what will likely turn out to be much less than $1M.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
The lost development time is huge for him
He did show good raw stuff when he was at Kentucky, but he hadn’t yet gotten results with it. Given that his stuff was down, he sat out most of the year, and that he was still a Boras client, his fall really isn’t surprising. And he did get drafted in the range you suggested (4th round).
No, you don’t give up on a TJ pitcher, but you drop him significantly if he isn’t yet in your organization. Robbie Aviles was a supplemental round talent and when it was found that he needed TJ, he fell to the 7th round (signing for $150K).
http://bullpenbanter.com/
You got a link
I’d love to see the other guys as well
If everybody likes you, then either no one knows anything about you, or you're dead.
Here it is
Warning – it’s long.
My 2010 draft board for the Giants
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
I don't see a rematch as likely
but it sure isn’t preposterous.
When you're drowning, you don't say 'I would be incredibly pleased if someone would have the foresight to notice me drowning and come and help me,' you just scream.
I think you missed the joke.
Go Strangers.
by hightowersmith on Nov 3, 2010 10:13 AM EDT up reply actions
No, I just chose to comment on next year's WS possibilities.
When you're drowning, you don't say 'I would be incredibly pleased if someone would have the foresight to notice me drowning and come and help me,' you just scream.
zip it
heh
When you're drowning, you don't say 'I would be incredibly pleased if someone would have the foresight to notice me drowning and come and help me,' you just scream.
Sorry
Couldn’t resist. lol
Congrats on a great year for the Rangers btw. I’ve been watching their development for the last few years and I wasn’t surprised at all when they put it together. It’s a great young team that I expect to contend for years.
by blackoutyears on Nov 3, 2010 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions
I was trying to continue the joke...
I was a bit surprised they managed to get this far this soon. I thought they had a very good shot at the division, and once they got Lee I thought that once they got there anything could happen.
When you're drowning, you don't say 'I would be incredibly pleased if someone would have the foresight to notice me drowning and come and help me,' you just scream.
Yeah
It was a testament to their development that they were in a position where they were one big gun away (Lee) from getting OTT. I’m interested to see how hard they go after him.
by blackoutyears on Nov 4, 2010 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Pretty impressed with their pipeline of pitching coming through
The Rangers seem to be able to produce a couple of back-end starter types (Robbie Ross/Neil Ramirez etc) every year with a gem (Martin Perez) thrown in for good measure.
They do lack the hitters though, although I guess we have yet to see how the 2010 draft turns out (Olt, Deglen, Skole).
by TheQuestforMerlin on Nov 2, 2010 12:02 PM EDT reply actions
That's kind of how I feel about it.
Seem to have tons of pitching, but this year the hitters have thinned… probably because Smoak is in a different system in their division.
Kinda surprised Hoying didn't slide in the back
Granted, 10th round pick with meh college career, but very good tools that compare favorably to Skole’s. Sounds like Rangers coaching have already made major progress in reworking his swing, results showed in his debut. Need to see him keep it up and make strides in plate discipline, but looks as interesting as anyone out of that draft class to me.
You know I find interesting about Skole and Hoying?
Those two are going to battle it out for the ugliest swing award. front-footed ugliness.
And yet, they can sting a ball, especially Hoying.
Godspeed Mike Olt.
i think you are sleeping on wilfredo boscan
although it was a rock season he turned in some straight dominant performances as a 20-year old in the cal league.
Fabio Castillo belongs in the 20.
I've been trying to convince my family of the magic of cumin. They won't listen to me. It makes almost everything better.- PhilKid3, 8/16/2010.
far too high of a grade for Scheppers for me
and i’d put Kirkman at least 5 spots higher.
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
http://twitter.com/doublestix
note for John
Engel Beltre has left the AFL to go play winter ball, so you won’t be seeing him.
Anyone know what's up with Danny Gutierrez?
I’ve heard varying things about his velocity this fall. Anybody know what’s going on?
Hanser Alberto
I’m not much of a follower of the system but what have people heard about the kid? I just looked at some DSL stats and the kid put up some real solid numbers as a 17 year old SS. Doesn’t look like he’ll stay at short but the bat looks for real.
Chris McGuiness?
Seemed like he had pretty decent numbers in A and then in AA after coming to Texas, surprised he wasnt in the HM category
Eric Hurley
Any chance Eric Hurley (TJ Surgery) will come back to be a major league starter? I hear he is looking better in the AFL re: his last time out.
I think bullpen is more likely
but maybe he sneaks into a back of the rotation role for someone.
When you're drowning, you don't say 'I would be incredibly pleased if someone would have the foresight to notice me drowning and come and help me,' you just scream.
Eric Hurley
I wonder if Eric Hurley, now pitching in the AFL & back finally from TJS will ever see some ML success? I sure would like to see him in Petco or SafeCo. He needs out of Texas at this stage. Any recent reports?
He's had a couple of good games recently, encouraging
I think he’s got a decent shot at back of the rotation, or at least swing man, for someone. He probably gets traded at some point unless TX decides he can turn into a righty 7th inning guy or something.
When you're drowning, you don't say 'I would be incredibly pleased if someone would have the foresight to notice me drowning and come and help me,' you just scream.
Font had TJ in Mid Nov
JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook
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