BA Carolina League Top 20
by deezle on Oct 4, 2010 12:19 PM EDT
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1. Julio Teheran, rhp, Myrtle Beach Pelicans (Braves)
2. Eric Hosmer, 1b, Wilmington Blue Rocks (Royals)
3. John Lamb, lhp, Wilmington Blue Rocks (Royals)
4. Wil Myers, c, Wilmington Blue Rocks (Royals)
5. Devin Mesoraco, c, Lynchburg Hillcats (Reds)
6. Randall Delgado, rhp, Myrtle Beach Pelicans (Braves)
7. Chris Dwyer, lhp, Wilmington Blue Rocks (Royals)
8. Oscar Tejeda, 2b, Salem Red Sox
9. Christian Colon, ss, Wilmington Blue Rocks (Royals)
10. Jason Kipnis, 2b, Kinston Indians
11. Derek Norris, c, Potomac Nationals
12. Xavier Avery, of, Frederick Keys (Orioles)
13. Will Middlebrooks, 3b, Salem Red Sox
14. Michael Burgess, of, Potomac Nationals
15. Gregory Infante, rhp, Winston Salem (White Sox)
16. J.J. Hoover, rhp, Myrtle Beach Pelicans (Braves)
17. Ryan Lavarnway, c, Salem Red Sox
18. Tyler Moore, 1b, Potomac Nationals
19. Jordan Henry, 1b, Kinston Indians
20. Santos Rodriguez, lhp, Winston-Salem Dash (White Sox)
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/league-top-20-prospects/2010/2610745.html
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1 of the top 1.
"Check out this bitchin' homemade tesla coil!"
by bwellnjonesco on Oct 4, 2010 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions
In retrospect, however,
This is the same team that had Carlos Beltran, Johnny Damon, Jermaine Dye, Mike Sweeney and Carlos Febles (at one time a very highly touted ’spect) all under club-control in their early-mid 20s and still finished 4th or 5th in the Central each of those years.
rubby de la rosa is so good
that he made a leagues top 15 he never even played in
Middlebrooks' stats are completely wrong...
in his writeup.
Lavarnway is higher than Tejada
Bring in Bard.
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by bestbostonsports on Oct 4, 2010 1:31 PM EDT reply actions
Yeah, that's peculiar
I’d feel pretty comfortable about taking Kipnis over both of those guys.
Baseball is my preferred sport. It should be yours, too.
I'm an editor for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
by Satchel Price on Oct 4, 2010 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions
duh
that’s because we’re smarter than they are.
by Scott the Shot on Oct 4, 2010 7:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Can someone post the correct list so I can update the main post?
I only have the free page from BA and they have not updated it as far as I can tell.
List from 5 years ago
*1. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, c, Myrtle Beach
*2. Nick Markakis, of, Frederick
*3. Anibal Sanchez, rhp, Wilmington
4. Adam Miller, rhp, Kinston
*5. Gio Gonzalez, lhp, Winston-Salem
*6. Jeremy Sowers, lhp, Kinston
*7. Armando Galarraga, rhp, Potomac
*8. Jeff Fiorentino, of, Frederick
*9. Lance Broadway, rhp, Winston-Salem
*10. Adam Loewen, lhp, Frederick
11. Robert Valido, ss, Winston-Salem
*12. Tony Sipp, lhp, Kinston
13. Ray Liotta, lhp, Winston-Salem
14. *J.J. Johnson, rhp, Frederick
15. *Kory Casto, 3b, Potomac
16. *Brad Snyder, of, Kinston
17. Frank Diaz, of, Potomac
18. *Hunter Pence, of, Salem
19. Stephen Head, 1b, Kinston
20. Josh Burrus, of, Myrtle Beach
*Has played in major leagues
http://bullpenbanter.com
What I would have given to see Ray Liotta be a successful major league baseball player....
by Kenneth Arthur on Oct 4, 2010 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions
That is...
significantly more underwhelming than most “5 years ago” lists you see when you get to the High-A level.
Yeah, it's not a great list
You gotta a couple of very good outfielders in Markakis and Pence, a couple good pitchers in Gonzalez and Sanchez, a couple more useful guys in Sipp, Galarraga, Fiorentino, and then there’s Salty, who could still turn out to be something I suppose.
Baseball is my preferred sport. It should be yours, too.
I'm an editor for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
by Satchel Price on Oct 4, 2010 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions
I think I'd have to disagree
You have a few very good players, a decent number of solid players. It just looks bad because we’re comparing it to the present list, which is filled with players who haven’t failed yet. I’d agree that the talent level is higher this year, but I’d be surprised if the set of outcomes are dramatically different.
by mrkupe on Oct 4, 2010 9:38 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I think
they were comparing this 5 Years Ago list to other 5 years Ago lists published with league Top 20s this year. In that regard, it is one of the less successful ones I’ve seen.
by blackoutyears on Oct 5, 2010 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Some thoughts...
- Nice to see Hosmer in No. 2, reaffirms my preference of Hosmer over Myers. I just don’t see Myers sticking at catcher, and in that case I simply gotta take Hosmer’s bat.
- I’d take Kipnis over Tejeda and Colon, for sure. Tejeda had a solid year but his walk rate wasn’t good. Kipnis has shown to have a clearly superior bat (just see his Double-A performance), and I don’t see Tejeda or Colon providing the defensive value to offset that. Apparently BA doesn’t see things that way.
- I’m a tad surprised they’re so low on Norris- reports on his defense were pretty positive, he walked over 22% of the time, and the power production wasn’t that bad for someone coming off a hand injury. Yeah, he struck out in 23% of his PA’s, which isn’t good, but there’s a lot to like there. I think I’d take Norris over Colon and Tejeda, at least.
Baseball is my preferred sport. It should be yours, too.
I'm an editor for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
Tejeda's walk rate
I was just looking at this the other day, and was amazed to see how much his approach improved (and his power dropped, interestingly enough) as the season went on:
April: 1.2%BB 22.0%K .263IsoP
May: 3.2%BB 24.0%K .170IsoP
June: 8.5%BB 13.2%K .107IsoP
July: 9.3%BB 10.2%K .082IsoP
August: 6.0%BB 18.8%K .132IsoP
September: 5.9%BB 5.9%K .125IsoP (only 17 PA)
I typically don’t pay much attention to month-by-month splits, but when the change is that significant and it’s something as typically stable as approach, I think it’s worth taking notice.
Tejeda’s shown he can hit for decent power, play defense, and flash a good approach at the plate, just not all at the same time. For a guy who’s on schedule to hit AA at age 21 next year though, he’s got plenty of time to consolidate those skills.
As I’ve previously noted, coming into this year, Tejada was lauded for his plate discipline. Young players often swing freely when things are going good. As Tejada’s bat cooled down, his discipline came back. He doesn’t K very much for a free-swinger, and he shows a bit of strike-zone discipline. I like his bat a lot. Defense, on the other hand…
Kipnis/Tejeda/Colon
Kipnis is close to 3 years older than Tejeda, and 2 years older than Colon. He also is below average with the glove at 2b, correct? Colon was in a tough park for hitters, Wilmington. It’s true he looks like the better bat, and he did quite well at AA. I was a litle surprised by this as well, but if Colon is ok at ss, and Tejeda either stays at ss or presumably is a step yup from Kipnis at 2b, I can understand the logic, if it is more projection than results.
I think that's the case you'd have to make....
and I think those are important points about Kipnis that are being brushed over a lot. His tools aren’t all that great.
All the same, I’m still taking him comfortably above those other two.
Also glad this drew more attention to Tejeda. Real toolsy player. Low walk rate, yes, but has been improving his approach and young for his level. I see a good amount of power from him.
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Tejeda attention
It certainly got my attention. Evidently I missed his first half, which was very good for a 20 year old in high A.
I like Kipnis’s bat, and for now I’d have him higher as well, but 3 years is a huge age difference for guys in high A (well, now AA for Kipnis).
Colon
He might be the unsexiest player in the minors right now. All his tools are average are better, but none are outstanding, which makes him fairly boring. But I think he gets pushed down more than he should, and more than some other prospects, because people anticipate he will get moved off shortstop.
If he stays at SS and is a .300/.350/.425 with 15 HR and 15 SB, which is a reasonable expectation, I think that’s pretty valuable. Is it more valuable than poor defense at 2B with .300/.370/.440 (back of envelope projection for Kipnis).
.300/.350/.425 15/15
Is that a reasonable expectation, or a reasonable if all things go well average type year 9as opposed to a peak year) for his ceiling? That’s pretty darn good for a 2b or a ss.
I think it's a reasonable expectation
And I think if he didn’t start his pro career in one of the most pitcher-friendly leagues and in one of the worst home fields for RHB, the general consensus on him would be higher. It will be interesting to see if opinions change after a year in the Texas League.
NW Arkansas
can tend to change people’s reps pretty quickly it seems. :)
He doesn't have the tools to stick at SS
The only reason he’s there now is that his baseball instincts are excellent. Goldstein said he had 40 speed (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=11684).
http://bullpenbanter.com/
Yes, Goldstein's opinion is fairly well known
he thinks he will end up as a 2B. I’ve heard other accounts that his range is fine, but his footwork needs work.
I really haven't seen many sources say his range/arm is anything more than fringe at the position
He plays above his tools. I think he’ll be a good everyday second baseman, but I do not buy him as a SS at all.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
Too bad
because I was thinking they already may have a 2b in Giovatella. They need a ss.
Giovatella isn’t the best bet to stick at second base.
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Giavotella DH?
Where else will he play? Didn’t y’all have him HM on the PP 2b list? John seems to think his D is adequate if his bat holds up (I think he said mixed reviews).
I heard that as well
but where else would he play? Is he worse than Kipnis? About the same? Bad as Lawrie?
Can any of those 3 really play a decent 2nd, and can their bats carry them even if sub-par (Lawrie may have the best bat and worst glove of the 3, just guessing here, but going by ARL and their stat lines).
I have more hope for Kipnis than Giavotella
I’m not sure he really fits anywhere. He’s probably a future bat-first utility guy.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
a one position utility guy without a fringe bat....
sign me up
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Oct 5, 2010 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Eh... he could be surprisingly useful
Scrapper with a decent bat. Although I don’t like him at many positions, he could certainly be a nice fit pressed into service in a few spots in late innings after pinch hitting on a NL team.
Bullpen Banter
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twitter: @alskor
keppinger
He still sound like Keppinger to me, a little bit more power, a few more Ks, a few more walks. Keppinger of course is big time contact guy and slightly below average as a major league fielder. Maybe Giavotella is worse than that in the field. He also seems a bit like Kipnis, less power, but works more walks and fewer Ks. I may just be a sucker for a close to 1:1 bb:k.
Gia was good on D everytime I saw him this last year.
And I saw him 4 times at least. I’ve seen him make diving plays to each side and throw guys out. I’ve never seen him make an error. Reports aren’t good on his D, but he hasn’t shown me anything that says he can’t do it. Innocent until proven guilty.
I haven't seen many say he will definitely end up at 2B
except KG and then others repeating what he said. BA certainly isn’t all in consensus that he’s moving. From today’s chat:
Kyle (West Plains, MO): Can you talk a little about Christian Colon? What does he need to clean up? The Royals talked about his footwork being tied to his errors? Where would he rank in all SS prospects?
Lacy Lusk: I do think he’s polished enough where he can stay at short. For the most part, he’s considered steady but not flashy, so I’m sure those small footwork points are something he’d be able to work out.
BA is generally the most optimistic on defense
And they said about Colon:
Last year’s Team USA top 20:
His defense at shortstop gets mixed reviews; while he has a chance to play short at the next level, the general consensus is that his fringy range and arm strength will force him to move to second
http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/college/summer-scene/summer-league-top-prospects/2009/268776.html
BA’s Draft Scouting Report:
Defensively, Colon’s range is limited, and his speed and arm are below-average for a shortstop. He does exhibit fluid and quick fielding actions and his playmaking ability is outstanding
The top 20 write up released today:
Whether Colon can remain at shortstop remains to be seen. He gets the most out of his range and arm strength, but both are fringy tools for the position.
And from PGCC’s write up:
But second base might eventually be Colon’s position as some scouts believe he gets by in the field mainly because of his savvy and superior instincts, that his range and fringy arm strength are better suited on the other side of the bag.
I’m not seeing the reasons for optimism.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
by Jeff Reese on Oct 4, 2010 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Yeah, I don't trust Goldstein one bit
About… well, anything. In any case, this gets into the whole discussion of how important tools are vs. instincts, positioning, footwork. It seems like a lot of times people rate tools as being more important up the middle, when I tend to think in reality it’s probably closer to 50/50.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
Colon's defense
Forget 40, I’ve seen scouts slap a 30 on his speed and still say that he’ll remain at SS. Speed isn’t everything, and for every scout saying 2B there’s one saying Colon sticks at SS because of well above average instincts and positioning. Time will tell. I’ve seen a couple of Orlando Cabrera comps, and having watched that guy all year I see why. I wouldn’t be surprised if Ramon Hernandez could beat him in a race from home to first. Doesn’t stop him from being a solid, if unspectacular, defender.
by blackoutyears on Oct 5, 2010 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions
He's 21, though, and he presumably will be even slower by age 25
Those instincts and jumps only get you so far. Especially when we’re starting at a baseline of okay at best defense (some would say less).
I haven’t seen all that much of him, but I would peg it at something like 75% 2B, 25% SS (eventually ending up at 2B).
Bullpen Banter
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twitter: @alskor
That's probably a future 30 speed grade
which is already incorporating normal speed decline with age.
Very possible, Al
I’d worry more about the arm than the speed to be honest. For me, I’ve seen enough of Colon in my few looks that I refuse to underrate him in any aspect of his game. Many of the scouts saying 2B admit that they haven’t generally had a lot of looks, and I’ve seen scouts change their tune on him after multiple viewings more than any player in recent memory. He’s a grower. I’m not saying anything concrete about his future position other than that I will be completely unsurprised if he’s a major league SS. Dude is a stone baseball player.
by blackoutyears on Oct 5, 2010 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions
How fast is Alex Gonzalez?
Even young he was never a burner, if i recall. I always think of ss with good range as meaning they are very fast, but there have been good ones who aren’t fast runners. Although a lot of that is memory from pre-UZR days. Maybe Rey Ordonez actually sucked at ss. :)
Don't take this as any kind of endorsement of Colon, but...
how fast was Cal Ripken? Speed isn’t the only factor in getting to a lot of balls at shortstop, though it’s pretty tough to be good without it.
This is all true - there are slow SSs...
but
-Look around at the position. They’re the exceptions rather than the norm.
-Colon is slow now. These other guys weren’t all 40 speed players or worse at age 21.
-I’m not basing this all on his speed… read any report of him and you will see questions raised about his defensive future. He’s fringy over there.
-All things considered, I don’t consider 25% chance to stay there as all that bad. Its not like he’s a bad prospect.
Bullpen Banter
www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor
I would also add Colon's arm is average-ish
Compare this to the other “slow” SS you all named above.
Bullpen Banter
www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor
So he's got something to prove.
Never underestimate the guy who has something to prove. If he’s a competitor he’ll show you.
Isn't it possible
…that slow shortstops are the exception because the majority of scouts and player development people have a preexisting bias in favor of faster, toolsier defenders?
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
It makes sense for there to be a correlation between speed and range
If there was a bias against slow, yet rangey SSs someone would have stepped up and exploited the disconnect. It’s a much easier conclusion to say that they are the exception.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
+1
Baseball is my preferred sport. It should be yours, too.
I'm an editor for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
by Satchel Price on Oct 6, 2010 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm sure positioning is a huge factor
But can it overcome 40 speed and a fringey arm? Seems like a real long shot.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
Now i know
why they put me at second base in little league.
the thing is
You have to weigh how much Kipnis looks like the better bat because he’s just that much better, vs. how much Kipnis looks like the better bat because he’s 23. It’s a big deal.
Is it?
It’s not like he spent all year in the Carolina – he destroyed AA too.
3 years older
Is a lot. The AA line helps, but it’s not a huge sample.
Essentially, when he left the carolina league, halfway through about, Tejeda’s line was as good pretty much. tejada slumped in the 2nd half and Kipnis rocked in AA. But think of it this way, what would Kipnis’s line looked like in the Carolina league if he’d plaed there in 2nd half of 2007? That’s about thie age differences. Or what would Tejeda do if he is in AA in 2013?
ARL doesn’t work quite like that, but for young hitters especially, 3 years is a hell of a difference.
wish job would add
Xavier Avery to his intuition list,
"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."
Surprised to see LJ Hoes miss the cut
19 (second youngest player in the league) and put up a .375 OBP.
Hoes was 20 this season, his birthday is on March 5
But his bounceback this season is still noteworthy; he just looked so poor in 2009 so it’s been a pleasant surprise.
Baseball is my preferred sport. It should be yours, too.
I'm an editor for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
by Satchel Price on Oct 4, 2010 9:11 PM EDT up reply actions
I like the top 5
of this list better than the MW, but I like the depth of the midwest a little more than this.
Lusk thinks Hosmer will be a better hitter than Heyward
I should bet my left nut that doesn’t happen…
I think the better question may be
If you think Hosmer will be a better hitter than Heyward, how in the world do you rank him anything but first in his league? I mean I love Teheran, but I wouldn’t ever consider taking him over Heyward of last year.
Lusk
Joe LeCates (Easton, MD): Thank you for the chat Lacy. Seeing Hosmer several times this year with his control of the zone, discipline, swing mechanics which should produce power and average; I was actually reminded of Jason Heyward at the plate a couple years ago. I know Hosmer lacks Heyward’s athleticism and defensive value, but could he end up being a comparable hitter?
Lacy Lusk: Yes. He may well exceed Heyward at the plate, especially in terms of hitting for average. Plus, that power binge in the Texas League playoffs showed what nearly everyone says about him — that the power will come, too.
That doesn’t say Lusk thinks Hosmer will be the better hitter, just could be. Doesn’t rule it out.
by blackoutyears on Oct 5, 2010 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions
you don't agree with Lamb in the top 5?
didn’t he have the lowest ERA in all of the minors for most of the year. The guy is a pure stud.
with great scouting reports as well
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Oct 4, 2010 9:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Lamb would have been the MiLB pitcher of the Year if he wouldn't have ran out of gas towards the end of the year.
He was THE best pitcher in the minors for all but a few weeks.
tough to beat out hellickson this year
but point stands…dude was awesome
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Oct 6, 2010 1:17 AM EDT up reply actions
Lacy Lusk sounds like an employee for Vivid entertainment
moreso than Baseball America.
by daveh33 on Oct 5, 2010 1:50 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
fairly surprised that Chun Chen didn't sneak on the back end
Didn’t like what I saw out of some of the other guys this year. I think Chen’s got a shot to reach the bigs. How good he turns out to be … don’t know, but I think he’s got a solid shot and may be an underrated catching prospect right now, despite his huge numbers. The bat speed is an issue, but … I don’t think it’s that bad that he’s simply sitting on pitches in A+.
Only time will tell.
Chen
Lusk said he almost made it. Too raw a defender apparently. With a list already featuring four catchers (Myers, Mesoraco, Norris, Lavarnway) and another who just missed in Salvador Perez, I can see it. Chen is definitely on my sleeper list.
by blackoutyears on Oct 5, 2010 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Even more surprising to me
I was surprised Chen did not make it but Joe Gardner being left off really baffled me. He definately deserved to be on this top 20 list
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