Top 5 for every MLB team
by Savoy on Oct 28, 2010 12:16 AM EDT
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PrintI have never made my own Top 100 prospect list & I don't really have much interest in doing that. Many of you guys (& girl) do an excellent job of preparing a list and trying to defend your opinions & perspectives. I am very thankful for all the input as it allows me to generate my own opinions. Life in general keeps me from being able to see many of these prospects with my own eyes so I enjoy hearing many of you discuss prospects that you are able to see on a daily basis.
I basically spend time researching many sites & then I compile my list & sort it by team. I wanted to post my top 5 for every team. I usually end up with a list of about top 30 for every team (with much help from John!) Feel free to discuss, debate, disagree, & shoot down my opinions. I can handle it. I have not seen most of these players with my own eyes so I am simply ranking them based on reading a ton of info on the internet.
Here it goes:
Arizona--Jarrod Parker, Matt Davidson, Tyler Skaggs, Bobby Borchering, Brandon Allen (HM: Marc Krauss)
***EDIT*** Brandon Allen has graduated.
Atlanta--Julio Teheran, Freddie Freeman, Mike Minor, Randall Delgado, Craig Kimbrel (HM: Vizcaino & Lipka)
Baltimore--Manny Machado, Zach Britton, Xavier Avery, Ryan Berry, Wynn Pelzer (HM: Mychal Givens) **Difficult system to find 5 that I like.
Boston--Casey Kelly, Ryan Kalish, Anthony Ranaudo, Anthony Rizzo, Jose Iglesias (HM: Brandon Workman) **So many to choose from.
***EDIT*** Ryan Kalish graduated (163 AB's). I would add Workman to the top 5 & then my HM would probably be Lars & Pimentel. So many others in the discussion (Doubront, Britton, Vitek, Fuentes, Reddick).
Chicago Cubs--Brett Jackson, Chris Archer, Trey McNutt, Josh Vitters, Hak-Ju Lee (HM: Jay Jackson & Chris Carpenter)
Chicago White Sox--Chris Sale, Jared Mitchell, Brent Morel, Addison Reed, Jacob Petricka **Really struggled after the top 3. Does Flowers belong in top 5? Viciedo?
Cincinnati--Aroldis Chapman, Yonder Alonso, Devin Mesoraco, Yasmani Grandal, Todd Frazier (HM: Hamilton & Yorman Rodriguez)
Cleveland--Lonnie Chisenhall, Jason Kipnis, Nick Weglarz, Drew Pomeranz, Carlos Carrasco (HM: White & Knapp)
***EDIT*** Carrasco has graduated.
Colorado--Tyler Matzek, Christian Friedrich, Nolan Arenado, Willin Rosario, Chris Nelson
Detroit--Jacob Turner, Nick Castellanos, Andy Oliver, Daniel Fields, Casey Crosby **Not much after top 3. A healthy Crosby could be very good, but can he stay healthy?
Florida--Chad James, Matt Dominguez, Kyle Skipworth, Christian Yelich, Brad Hand **Worst system?? I only see 2 prospects here! Finding 5 was not easy.
Houston--Jordan Lyles, Delino DeShields, Mike Foltynewicz, Jonathan Villar, Tanner Bushue (HM: Jay Austin) **This system is hard to swallow, just not as bad as Florida.
Kansas City--Mike Moustakas, Wil Myers, Eric Hosmer, Mike Montgomery, John Lamb (HM: Danny Duffy) AMAZING!
LA Angels--Mike Trout, Hank Conger, Kaleb Cowart, Garrett Richards, Jean Segura (HM: Fabio Martinez-Mesa)
LA Dodgers--Dee Gordon, Jerry Sands, Chris Withrow, Trayvon Robinson, Aaron Miller (HM: Zach Lee) **There are a bunch of RHP here to choose from. Miller looks like the lone LHP there.
Milwaukee--Jake Odorizzi, Brett Lawrie, Jeremy Jeffress, Zach Braddock, Lorenzo Cain (HM: Cody Scarpetta & Kentrail Davis)
***EDIT*** Lorenzo Cain graduated (147 AB's) so I would move Scarpetta to #5 & HM would be Davis & Mark Rogers or Wily Peralta. Dylan Covey sure would look nice in their top 5 wouldn't he?
Minnesota--Kyle Gibson, Aaron Hicks, Miguel Sano, Alex Wimmers, Ben Revere (HM: Hendriks & Arcia)
NY Mets--Jenrry Mejia, Wilmer Flores, Fernando Martinez, Matt Harvey, Aderlin Rodriguez (HM: Reese Havens) **Looks like Alderson will take over and change this system for the better.
NY Yankees--Jesus Montero, Dellin Betances, Austin Romine, Manny Banuelos, Gary Sanchez (HM: Andrew Brackman)
Oakland--Grant Green, Chris Carter, Michael Choice, Michael Taylor, Jemile Weeks (HM: Yordy Cabrera & Ian Krol) **Will the real Michael Taylor please report immediately to Oakland?
Philadelphia--Domonic Brown, Jonathan Singleton, Trevor May, Jarred Cosart, Brody Colvin **Was the Cliff Lee trade a failure?
Pittsburgh--Jameson Taillon, Tony Sanchez, Stetson Allie, Rudy Owens, Bryan Morris (HM: ZVR & Brad Lincoln) **If their arms stay healthy, this system could have one of the deepest SP staffs in 3 or 4 years.
***EDIT*** Brad Lincoln has graduated.
San Diego--Jaff Decker, Simon Castro, Corey Luebke, James Darnell, Donavan Tate (HM: Drew Cumberland)
San Francisco--Brandon Belt, Zach Wheeler, Thomas Neal, Gary Brown, Jarrett Parker **Struggled to find #5 here.
Seattle--Michael Pineda, Dustin Ackley, Justin Smoak, Nick Franklin, Alex Liddi (HM: Halman & Walker) Top 4 are exciting but who should be #5?
***EDIT*** Justin Smoak has graduated. How did I miss that one??
St. Louis--Shelby Miller, Zack Cox, Lance Lynn, Carlos Martinez, Tyrell Jenkins **Huge dropoff after Cox.
Tampa Bay--Jeremy Hellickson, Desmond Jennings, Matt Moore, Jake McGee, Alex Colome (HM: Take your pick! Torres, Barnese, Sale, Romero, Cobb, Lobstein, Wilking Rodriguez, Beckham) **What a strong system!
Texas--Martin Perez, Jurickson Profar, Engel Beltre, Robbie Erlin, Robbie Ross (HM: Tanner Scheppers)
Toronto--Kyle Drabek, Zach Stewart, Carlos Perez, Deck McGuire, Anthony Gose (HM: D'Arnaud) **I think this system is underrated & has solid depth throughout both pitching & hitting.
Washington--Bryce Harper, Danny Espinosa, Derek Norris, Wilson Ramos, AJ Cole (HM: Burgess & Marrero)
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From the looks of it, you did a good job researching
and yes, the Cliff Lee trade was a disaster for Philly, but for the Mariners, it was an awesome prospect gain AND a fuck you to the Yankees, and I can’t decide which I enjoy more.
by jackyz on Oct 28, 2010 12:51 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
Mariners, who should be #5?
Probably none of the other 3 you listed. Alex Liddi is okay, but there is a deeper group of interesting prospects I might go with: Mauricio Robles, James Paxton (eventually), Marcus Littlewood, Johermyn Chavez (I might be higher on him than others), Blake Beavan (not an awesome prospect, but maybe the Liddi of pitchers), Dan Cortes (if you value an amazing bullpen arm)
Taijuan Walker has a few years to go, and if we’re picking youngin’s, I might go with Guillermo Pimentel. Greg Halman, while I love him, it is a love that should not be rewarded because I think I could probably strike him out and I didn’t even pitch when I was in little league. The top 4 are good though!
Thanks
Forgot about Cortes and I do like his electric arm even though I know RP do not carry much value around here.
I also like the Pimentel suggestion.
I am curious as to your thoughts about Kyle Seager. Does he end up an MLB util guy. Ackley to CF & Seager as full time 2B?
The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.
I'm one of Seagers biggest fans
and I think that he could turn into either Martin Prado or Mark Loretta. Great on-base skills, great contact/line-drive ability, but little power and average at best on defense. I still think he could start at either 2B or 3B for atleast a couple seasons.
…they should send down Huntington & Nutting, because they aren’t ready, either. - royshowell
by Marinerfanjake on Oct 28, 2010 2:06 AM EDT up reply actions
Damn it.
When I started to reply to your email the FIRST name that was going to come up was Kyle Seager.
I like him a lot. There’s always that big dropoff concern from High Desert to West Tennessee, but I don’t think this is going to be a problem for Seager. Even a “dropoff” for him is going to leave him as a solid offensive 2nd baseman who should be able to stick there defensively. He’s definitely got some issues with the swing and I don’t think he’s a top 100 prospect by any means, but he’s going to be a breakout candidate to watch in 2011 if he has another successful season.
I won’t move Ackley off 2nd base until absolutely necessary because Franklin Gutierrez is the best man for the job in center, and Ackley’s bat won’t play well in LF. Normally, I’m not a “his bat doesn’t play there!” kind of guy, but we’ve already got Ichiro in right, and as a Mariners fan I’m tired of not having a single good power hitting outfielder since Griffey. I think Saunders figures it out next season and is the long term solution in left.
by Kenneth Arthur on Oct 28, 2010 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions
Nice assessment
If you still count Smoak (way past rookie eligibility, though I have no issue still discussing him as a prospect), it would be Seager or Robles for me at 5 (love the fastball/change combo from a lefty). Liddi isn’t bad, but still not sold on the glove, bat isn’t stand-out enough if he needs to move to 1B.
by goldenblack on Oct 28, 2010 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Missed Smoak
Brain fart on that one. He wasn’t even close. He probably exceeded 130 AB’s in June or July.
The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.
Just a not for the Angels
Cowart should be moved down a few and Segura up
My Top 5 Angels would be:
Trout, Segura, Conger, Richards, Chatwood/Cowart/Trumbo
If you didn't know by now, my screen name is sarcastic
Thought your LA top 5
would be:
1. Trout
2. Trout
3. Trout
4. Trout
5. I considered Segura but will go with Trout
The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.
by Savoy on Oct 28, 2010 1:14 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
how long you guys gonna pile on the kid
do discourage him.
"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."
by fourfingerwoo on Oct 28, 2010 1:54 AM EDT up reply actions
haha so funny
If you didn't know by now, my screen name is sarcastic
by mathisrocks5 on Oct 28, 2010 2:35 AM EDT up reply actions
Trumbo
I just don’t buy into the thought that Trumbo will contribute much at the MLB level. Maybe a bench bat.
The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.
How can you say that when he had better #'s than Montero?
Just want to see what you think
If you didn't know by now, my screen name is sarcastic
by mathisrocks5 on Oct 28, 2010 2:35 AM EDT up reply actions
Well when your 25 you tend to put up better numbers than 20 year olds
Also, it could be a function of scouting rather than stats. Just by looking at his numbers I see he strikes out alot so I’d assume he would have trouble making contact at the next level. Does anyone who has seen Trumbo have any input?
Brandon Jacobs of Lowell > Brandon Jacobs of NYG
Because
prospecting has a ton more to do than just looking at plain ole stats. You have to look at age as well as the scouting reports. If you go strictly by numbers, then why isn’t Paul Goldschmidt (35 HR & 314 BA / 384 OBP / 606 SLG / 990 OPS) mentioned as a top 25 prospect? Scouting reports must go hand in hand with the numbers.
No respectable scout would ever consider Trumbo to be in the same prospect universe as Jesus Montero.
The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.
Because his numbers are the only truly great thing about his profile
He’s got plus power, but there are clear holes in his swing and his approach is far from ideal. Not to mention that he’s not much of a defender.
And it’s worth mentioning that his numbers aren’t nearly as impressive once you think about where they came from. Only the CAL scores more runs than the PCL, and Salt Lake has a 106 park factor, too.
We’re talking about a 25-year-old first baseman with one above-average tool that put up strong overall numbers with a mediocre K/BB in a hitter’s park in a hitter’s league. It’s just not that exciting.
Baseball is my preferred sport. It should be yours, too.
I'm an editor for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
by Satchel Price on Oct 28, 2010 9:41 AM EDT up reply actions
what he said
The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.
And he put up about the same numbers as Brandon Wood did at Salt Lake, so obviously he's going to be about the same as Wood in the Majors too.
Or prospects don’t work that way. One of the two.
Morgan Ensberg for Manager 2011!
AL Scout on Rendon: "I would peg him as a poor man's Jose Lopez."
much better
If you didn't know by now, my screen name is sarcastic
by mathisrocks5 on Oct 28, 2010 2:36 AM EDT up reply actions
Wow, you must really like Segura
I’d have him 5th behind Conger, Chatwood, and Richards…
FYI, this was a response to mathisrocks15
it just got dropped down
I'm pretty big on Segura
I think he might be No. 2 for me, too.
Baseball is my preferred sport. It should be yours, too.
I'm an editor for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
by Satchel Price on Oct 28, 2010 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions
I just dont think Cowart is deserving of that 2nd spot
If you didn't know by now, my screen name is sarcastic
by mathisrocks5 on Oct 29, 2010 2:01 AM EDT up reply actions
I like Segura for that #2 spot as well
He’s really underrated overall.
Cubs
Can’t complain, although I think a lot of people will have Archer #1 in the system when all is said and done. I know some people who’d put Brandon Guyer or Junior Lake either in the Top 5 or the honorable mentions, but I’m not one of them.
My personal Top 5 is Brett Jackson, Chris Archer, Trey McNutt, Hak-Ju Lee, and Chris Carpenter. I’ve contemplated swapping McNutt and Archer (not quite sold on Archer sticking as a starter), but for now I’ll stick with that.
Like the Dodger top 5
and you didnt even touch Jansen :)
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Oct 28, 2010 1:37 AM EDT reply actions
zack lee is top 2
rubby instead of aaron miller too
+1
I think he was the biggest steal of the 1st round. I’d have him #1 in the Dodgers system
If you didn't know by now, my screen name is sarcastic
by mathisrocks5 on Oct 28, 2010 2:37 AM EDT up reply actions
Yep. He was an absolute steal.
But when teams like the cubs make horrible picks, there will be steals.
I'll hold off on calling the Simpson pick horrible
Have faith in Tim Wilken, he’s got an absolutely great reputation around the industry.
Baseball is my preferred sport. It should be yours, too.
I'm an editor for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
by Satchel Price on Oct 28, 2010 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Cubs might not have made the greatest pick ever
but it wasn’t horrible (at least not yet) and it’s not because they didn’t take Lee
by PrincetonCubs on Oct 30, 2010 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions
Indeed
I thought the pick was made much too early, but it’s not like Simpson wasn’t an interesting arm.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
Steal?
Did you see what they ended up paying for him?
Bullpen Banter
www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor
he is a top 10 talent
bonus was big, but if he is in the majors in two years, and the fact he already has 3 pitches at 18, makes the bonus understandable. you dont get that talent at the late 20s… Well, at least not this well known talent(there are always diamonds in the ruff type of guys). He was considered the 2nd best prep arm..
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Oct 28, 2010 8:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes
If you didn't know by now, my screen name is sarcastic
by mathisrocks5 on Oct 29, 2010 2:03 AM EDT up reply actions
I think he's saying he wasn't the second best prep arm or a top 10 talent.
Bullpen Banter
www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor
He dropped because of the bonus demands
Along with a perceived lack of signability.
I don’t think he was a “consensus” top 10 talent, but certainly many scouts felt like he was.
More teams should do exactly what LA did – what does it really matter if they overpaid by $2 mill? I’d rather spend an extra $2 mill on Lee than one year of some crappy middle reliever.
I disagree with that
He had some late helium, but I don’t think he was ever considered a top 10 talent. He was outside of most top 20s, and some top 30s.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
More
In addition to the PG (#38) and BA (#29) lists mentioned below:
Nick James (#36): http://www.pnrscouting.com/rankings_2010_draftboard_top300_pt1.html
Andy Seiler (#29): http://www.mlbbonusbaby.com/2010/5/31/1494948/updated-top-100
Keith Law (#76): http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/draft2010/insider/news/story?id=5239359
http://bullpenbanter.com/
HM to Jonathan Garcia, OF
I can see him lighting it up this year after an impressive go in the Pioneer League
not surprised he wasnt
included yet though
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Oct 28, 2010 8:54 PM EDT up reply actions
I realize
Lee wasnt there, but he did mention him in HM. It depends if you wanted to see him in game action. Yea, Rubby probably could have replaced Miller, but some people are still worried about Rubby’s Ks
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Oct 28, 2010 8:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Zach Lee question
If Lee did not have the solid commitment to LSU, does anyone think he is the #4 pick in the draft behind Harper, Taillon, & Machado?
The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.
no friggin chance
as far as i’m concerned, he went about where he should of.
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
http://twitter.com/doublestix
Nope.
Which is why paying him that much he definitely wasn’t the biggest steal of anything.
Bullpen Banter
www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor
You realize it's over 5 years right
It’s not like he got the same amount as Machado paid all at once like Machado. If Lee would have been a signable pick to most teams, there are at least two teams that said they would have given him the same amount bonus wise that would have taken him before the Dodgers took him. Who knows where in the draft that would be, but he could have easily been a top 15 or 20 pick rather than late 20s.
"If we hit that bull's eye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate"
Yeah, I like Lee...
That doesn’t make it a “steal” of a pick.
Bullpen Banter
www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor
they all say no
but he was considered the 2nd best prep arm in the draft. Id guess 10-15
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Oct 28, 2010 8:54 PM EDT up reply actions
He certainly wasn't consensus
Whitson was the one mentioned most often with Covey, Cole, Allie, Lee, and Cowart all in the mix for 2nd best prep arm as well.
On June 7th, Perfect Game ranked Lee 38th overall and as the 10th best prep arm: http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=4842
http://bullpenbanter.com/
BA 29th
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/draft-preview/2010/2610039.html
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
http://twitter.com/doublestix
I was going off the
discussion we had here after the draft. I guess I should have pointed that out. My bad
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Oct 29, 2010 12:58 AM EDT up reply actions
I would say yes
If you didn't know by now, my screen name is sarcastic
by mathisrocks5 on Oct 29, 2010 2:03 AM EDT up reply actions
I would put Peguero in the Giants top 5
That said this system took a huge hit, and you could order their 3-10 any way
Buster Posey>
"I thought he was going to punch me and I was totally accepting of it. I was planning a reason to thank him if he did." Brian Wilson on Buster Posey
Savoy
Love this type of list. Thanks.
I’d probably have Peter Bourjos in LA Angels top 5, and Scarpetta in Milwaukee’s (I know he got HM).
Otherwise I can’t poke too many holes.
by logstx on Oct 28, 2010 7:36 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
Thanks
Appreciate it. I honestly don’t know too much about Scarpetta but liked him better than any other Brewers outside their top 5.
The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.
Scarpetta
I have Scarpetta at 8 in my Brewer top-10. Love that curve ball.
by Tedaldtada29 on Oct 28, 2010 9:10 AM EDT up reply actions
Brewers Top 5
Cain graduated.
How is Mark Rogers not in the Brewer top-5 right now???
More Rogers
He should be getting much more love for top-50 pitcher discussion too. He is now, what everyone hopes Brackman/Ranaudo will be at the end of next year. Based on stuff alone, he is a top-10 MiLB SP, but I think the injury history drops him into the 30-50 range.
by Tedaldtada29 on Oct 28, 2010 9:13 AM EDT up reply actions
Supposedly he has great mechanics
and hasn’t had any physical problems. I’d guess his shoulder is ok. The question with him is whether he can work those walks down.
in further regards to mil.
didn’t Braddock graduate this year too?
as set-up man, I know John Axford graduated as the heir apparent to Trevor Hoffman…
Cain is going to be better than Carlos Gomez and should be an everyday regular…
I think the future looks bright for this Brewers club….
I called it - Joe Mauer's first career Home-Run at Target Field !!!
Why Oh Why did the D'Backs select A.J. Pollock over Mike Trout?
I hate Hunter Wendelstedt, you hate Hunter Wendelstedt we all hate hunter w
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Oct 29, 2010 11:31 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't get the hubbub with Krauss
Doesn’t line balls up (12% LD-Rate in ‘10), K’s an absolute ton, and had a BABIP floating around .370 giving him even more help at the dish than the typical Cal Leaguer gets. 25 HR’s is nice, but given his limitations in any aspect of the game that doesn’t involve a bat, I want to see it at Double-A before he’s in the top-10 for that team.
I know I’m among the minority in not liking him, but I see a lot of guys in that system I’d rather have.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qU_9zTD9B98&feature=related
Apparently there's an epilepsy warning on this video. But it's so incredibly cool.
by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 28, 2010 9:31 AM EDT reply actions
Curious who you like better?
Pollock? Injury hampers knowing what he can do.
Corbin?
Wheeler?
Belfiore?
Owings?
Holmberg?
The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.
Owings is a top-5 guy in that system for me
To be honest, I like all of those guys except Wheeler (I assume you mean Ryan? He had a horrible year…) more than I like Krauss. On my list, he’s somewhere in the late teens in that system. Maybe it’s just me, but I don’t see what’s so special about a 107 wOBA+ (from StatCorner.com) when your BABIP is about 100 points higher than it should have been.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qU_9zTD9B98&feature=related
Apparently there's an epilepsy warning on this video. But it's so incredibly cool.
by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 28, 2010 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm not that excited about Krauss, either.
The bat looks like it should be solid, but solid won’t be nearly good enough for a guy that generally projects as a below-average corner outfielder. The total package, with all of the strikeouts and defensive questions, just isn’t that impressive.
I might rather have Chris Owings or Collin Cowgill, to be honest.
Baseball is my preferred sport. It should be yours, too.
I'm an editor for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
by Satchel Price on Oct 28, 2010 10:17 AM EDT up reply actions
Red Sox
Ryan Kalish is no longer prospect-eligible, but I don’t mind seeing him and other guys that just exceeded the thresholds toward the end of the season, as I am curious where they would rank with the rest of the prospects, esp in a top 100 I would be curious to see where the other recent listings would have guys like Kalish, Logan Morrison, Madison Bumgarner, and others.
In the Red Sox system, I don’t feel like they are all that top heavy, but have a bunch of nice prospects I would expect to see in the 50 – 150 range overall.
I like this post, as it is different from a straight top 100. Nice work here I appreciate it!
"When the going gets tough, the tough get going."
Boston
I agree with your assesment here – looking at Boston’s top 5 doesn’t really kick you in the face with awesomeness – but like you mention, what gets me excited is the depth (as alskor’s post below points out)
I’m excited to see what kinds of strides guys like Fuentes, Vitek, Lavarnway can make next year.
Workman was a guy I a little surprised to be hovering around this top 5; Can’t say I know enough about him to disagree, just that this is the first list I’ve seen that regarded him that highly
Astros system has some guys I'd consider more worthy than Bushue or Villar, personally.
Bushue had a great stretch at the start of last year but he needs to sustain that for me to really buy in. For now he’s just a nice young talent that could turn into something, but I’m not sure I’d rather have him than J.D. Martinez, Austin Wates or other guys of that level. Another guy that could sneak in there is Ben Heath, who showed great power in his time in the minors and got all the way to AA between the draft and the end of the year. And then there’s the wild card in Ariel Ovando, who could be the #2 player in the system behind Lyles. We just don’t know on him yet.
white sox.
i don’t see how viciedo could be outside the top 5. he can hit at the major league level. perhaps he’ll never be more than an average player – no defensive value and likely will not take many walks – but he’s far more likely to be worth something than reed or petricka.
position?
Will he be anything more than a DH?
The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.
Morel
Do you think Viciedo ever sees 3B? I am assuming Morel is the long term option there.
I was also thinking Viciedo could possibly play 1B but not sure.
The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.
Yep, he is not a 3B
And he makes Jeff Francouer look like Ted Williams at the plate
by goldenblack on Oct 28, 2010 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Is Rich Poythress not a legit prospect?
Although he was at High Desert he did put some good numbers up.
315 avg 31 Hrs 130 Rbis
Poythress
I still think the world of him. I know he was at High Desert this year, but he did have an even better SLG on the road(.581) than at home(.579). I’ve yet to see him on anyone’s Top 100 so far, although it’s very early in the prospect ranking season. Personally, I’m going to have him in the 50-60 range.
In what St. Louis Cardinals manager Tony La Russa called a "big day" for his club, starter Chris Carpenter took the mound for his first session of live batting practice and promptly buzzed the fuzz on catcher Jason LaRue’s chin with an errant fastball.
"Sorry," Carpenter called from the mound.
"Don’t say you’re sorry," LaRue barked back.
"He said it," pitching coach Dave Duncan said from the side of the cage, "but he didn’t mean it."
~ DG
Good job with the Rays
I would just replace Colome with Barnese. Colome has a higher ceiling, but Barnese is closer.
I like Vitek, but I don't think he is a top 10 guy yet.
I’d add britton instead.
Great job though.
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by bestbostonsports on Oct 28, 2010 11:38 AM EDT reply actions
i would put luis heredia
4th on the pirates list
interesting
I wouldn’t simply because of how far he is and how little organized ball he’s played. For me, he’d be behind Morris and Owens, but his stuff has received rave enough reviews that depending on how much you valued ceiling and floor, you could put him above Allie even.
FWIW: Allie is behind Owens and Morris for me at this point, given that there are significant doubts about his ability as a SP. Yes, I value floor quite a bit!
I would put Heredia 4th and Morris 5th...
I honestly don’t get why Pirate’s fans overrate Owens so much. He is another Paul Maholm if things go pretty well for him. Not saying that is his ceiling, but he will probably be no better. How can you rate someone like that over someone with a chance to be a front end guy without major problems. Allie and Heredia have their problems, but nothing significant enough to be dropped below Owens. I like Owens as a prospect and have stood up for him when he has been underrated, but I can not agree with the people who the opposite either.
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
+1 kind of
You’re higher on Owens than I am (given your previous posts on him and the fact that I’d be surprised if he’s ever as good as Maholm), but I absolutely agree with the sentiment.
Allie is the clear #2 for me.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
yeah, i understand the sentiment
On my list, Allie/Heredia will rise quickly once they start pro ball, and the reports back up the previous suggestions of their ability.
The other reason that pertains to Allie is the likelihood of him ending up as a reliever. This seems to be split somewhat down the middle, but if Allie does end up as a reliever, even a phenomenal one, what’s he gonna add- 2 WAR? Maholm’s done that each of the last 3 years… again, once he shows he can start, he’ll rise quickly on my list- I’m just erring on the side of caution here.
by BurgherKing on Oct 28, 2010 10:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Allie has ace upside though
He may never throw enough strikes to be a starting pitcher (we really have no idea at this point, there were positive steps in that direction during his senior year), but his fastball/slider combination is something you can dream on. That will propel him up lists. It’s the same reason why Chapman was ranked very high last year. Allie doesn’t have the kind of free and easy velocity that Chapman does (his more brute strength velocity) that made him a top 25 guy, but it should safely land him on all of the top 100s.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
i agree entirely
I’ll just wait to see what he does before putting him up there. As you said, we have no idea, and the risk is what makes me put him behind someone in AA as a SP, who did quite well for himself. I understand the ranking on upside, and I understand why scouts love him.
by BurgherKing on Oct 28, 2010 10:54 PM EDT up reply actions
I found this interesting, but I think a better way to approach this is to have a discussion of how many guys in each system should be considered for the top 100/200/250/whatever.
Doing it like that really shows you the deep systems… and is a great way to start your own top prospect lists. You tend to miss too many good prospects when you keep it to five.
That’s how I typically make my lists. I’ll share my A.L. East list here. When I did this I roughly considered guys who fit in the top 250ish. Its not a hard and fast rule, but just a rough guideline that I expect to tweak liberally from now until March. In fact, if you run the numbers here, its clear many of these listed below won’t make my top 200/250. I just consider this the best way to not miss anyone in my top 100.
BAL
Manny Machado
Zach Britton
Matt Hobgood
Mychal Givens
Ryan Berry
Xavier AveryBOS
Casey Kelly
Jose Iglesias
Anthony Ranaudo
Drake Britton
Anthony Rizzo
Josh Reddick
Kolbrin Vitek
Will Middlebrooks
Oscar Tejeda
Garin Cecchini
Felix Doubront
Stolmy Pimental
Brandon Workman
Reymond Fuentes
Sean CoyleNYY
Jesus Montero
Dellin Betances
Manny Baneulos
Gary Sanchez
Brett Marshall
Graham Stoneburner
Andrew Brackman
Austin Romine
J.R. Murphy
Slade Heathcott
Ivan Nova
Melky Mesa
Cito CulverTB
Kyle Drabek
Travis D’Arnaud
Zach Stewart
Deck McGuire
Carlos Perez
Jake Marisnick
Adeiny Hechevarria
Anthony Gose
Aaron Sanchez
Eric Thames
Asher Wojciechowski
Henderson Alvarez
J.P. Arencibia
Chad JenkinsTOR
Desmond Jennings
Jeremy Hellickson
Matt Moore
Jake McGee
Justin O’Connor
Alex Colome
Nick Barnese
Josh Sale
Alex Torres
Alex Cobb
Wilking Rodriguez
Kyle Lobstein
Tim Beckham
Jake Thompson
Joseph Cruz
Feedback as always, is appreciated. I’d love to see some other divisions done… (dont mean to hijack the thread!).
FYI, I do this for each team. Mull it over for awhile… then I separate out the guys I consider for top 100 consideration. I put those guys roughly into tiers. Then I divide it into two lists, pitchers and position players… which I separate into tiers again. Its amazing how dividing the list between pitchers and position players can change your perspective. Makes it a lot easier… and everything seems to fit much better when you recombine the lists.
Bullpen Banter
www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor
Switched TB & TOR
The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.
Hector Noesi and Adam Warren
are 2 guys who could probably be on the 250’ish list for the Yanks as well. You could also include Mason Williams, who like Coyle is a high school draftee who got a big bonus outside the first round.
http://www.theyankeeu.com
Definitely should have had Noesi.
Could have sworn I remember typing him. I might have accidentally typed someone else over him in the spreadsheet.
Bullpen Banter
www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor
For the Rays
You really need to include Enny Romero. 92-96 fastball. potentially plus curve, and a good changeu with good control.
Jose Ramirez...
For the Yankees should be considered as well. Better prospect than Melky and Culver but good job on the rest. I like it.
World Series attitude, champagne bottle life, nothing every changes so tonight is like tomorrow night.
My top 5 for Oakland is Green, Carter, Parker, Taylor and Krol
Choice is too raw. Weeks is too injured. Parker’s not super-toolsy but he was a tremendously good player this year, one of the best players in the entire California League when you account for both offense and defense. He’s not very far from being a good major leaguer.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Krol is very interesting...
He walked 28 batters in 28 games. And held his own in the Cal league. Pretty darn good for a 18 year old kid. Also Justin Marks could break out next year, hes in my top 10 A’s.
"Carter's 25-game hitting streak isn't any normal streak. He's 46 for 97 (.474 average) during the run, adding 16 walks and compiling 81 total bases in the process. I'm out of superlatives for what he's doing." - Kevin Goldstein
*19 year old kid.
"Carter's 25-game hitting streak isn't any normal streak. He's 46 for 97 (.474 average) during the run, adding 16 walks and compiling 81 total bases in the process. I'm out of superlatives for what he's doing." - Kevin Goldstein
Carassco also graduated
But easy to miss since he went less than 50 ip this year. But if you add prior years he is over.
by Dalman on Oct 28, 2010 3:14 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Curious about your Marlins comment
You mention you only see two prospects there, I wonder which two? I’m not a big fan of Skipworth but the other four names you mentioned are definitely legit prospects. I’d say all could rank in the top 200 with all but Yelich getting top 100 consideration.
http://bullpenbanter.com
I'd guess Dominguez and James...
…and each has their own set of ???
First two listed
dbreer is correct. I really only like Dominguez & James. I see Dominguez as their 3B for quite a while. I just didn’t have a whole lot of confidence in Skip & Yelich. I honestly don’t know much about Hand.
The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.
From John in an AQA thread from late August
hand
Huge improvement this year with his command, and an underrated prospect who deserves more attention. Ultimate ceiling is a number two starter, more likely a number three or strong four. but I like him…he’s from the Midwest.
Jim Shonerd: I’ve regretted that I never got to see him pitch in Greensboro last year. Seemed like he was invariably in the stands charting pitches every time I went. Anyway, he’s got a good arm, with a low 90s fastball that can get up to 94 and his curve and change show plus potential. He’s dropped his walk rate considerably this year (from 4.64 BB/9 last year to 2.83 this year), and he’s been pretty hot lately, only two ER allowed in his last four starts.
http://bullpenbanter.com
Scott Cousins
Has to be in that top 5. really blossomed the 2nd half of the year with OPSs of ..938 and .969 in July and August, and then a decent little cup of coffee with the Marlins. I read somewhere he may have supplanted Maybin in the Marlins’ CF plans, which seems dubious to me.
Other ineligibles
Nice lists. But more ineligibles:
B. Allen (149 ABs)
C Carrasco (67.0 IP)
B. Lincoln (52.7 IP)
arodys vizcaino over randall delgado
i know i’m in the minority here, but i rank vizcaino higher than delgado. don’t get me wrong, i think delgado is pretty good. but vizcaino ended his season with a 49-2 k-bb ratio. that’s awesome enough for me to rank him higher than delgado even with his injury history.
maybe
Dykstra with the Brewers needs to be considered,
"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."
Dykstra
I have Dykstra in the 15-20 range in the Brewers system.
Scooter Gennett is way ahead of Dykstra for me.
by Tedaldtada29 on Oct 29, 2010 10:01 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Son of Nails
I never considered Dykstra a candidate for top 5 in the Brewers org.
I did read a site that stated he could possibly become an MLB leadoff hitter in the future.
The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.
meant to say
I would also have him in the 15-20 range.
The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.
Cards Prospects
As I agree Miller and Cox are the 2 legit prospects there are definitely some intriguing guys. I personally have Lynn just outside of my Top 5 due to a low ceiling (#4 SP ceiling IMO). But he is also very close to breaking into the bigs which holds value. Also don’t have Jenkins that high due to how raw he is…he is all ceiling but will need many years to develop IMO. Other intriguing names:
1) Oscar Taveras – young OF with many tools and produced last year at the JC affiliate. Power should develop but must cut down on swing and misses
2) Eduardo Sanchez – A closer in waiting IMO. He not only has dynamite stuff but his control is VERY good. Should be in the pen to start the year in 2011
3) Audry Perez – A C that has the potential to be a very good hitting C. IMO the best C in our system
4) Nick Longmire – Projected to be an above avg RF in the bigs with above avg tools across the board. He is an extra-base hit machine. Very underrated IMO.
5) Joe Kelly – Coverted to a starter from being a closer in college. Ceiling of #3/#4 SP…probably #4.
6) Adron Chambers – Very quietly had a very very good year. He is now having a very solid Arizona League this fall. I like him more than most and he has speed which is something the Cards desperately need. Can play CF.
7) Adam Reifer – Another closer type that always had dynamite stuff but got hit more than he should…until this past year. He put it all together and another dynamite year in 2011 could get a late season callup or set the stage for breaking camp in 2012.
The problem with the Cards system is most of their solid talent is in the low minors so still a few years away. The guys in the upper minors (Lynn, Descalso, etc) are more complementary pieces and not above avg talent that can make a big impact. But a few more solid drafts and IFA signing years and this system could have depth and upside.
Angels' Jordan Walden still has rookie status
His time on the roster is only 44/43 days, depending on when exactly he was added to the MLB roster. I imagine that would change your Halos’ top 5
I thought it did if they were promoted beforehand
At any rate, the point stands: Jordan Walden is still a prospect, and I haven’t yet seen a list that treats him as such.
Walden didn't graduate
. . . and I still didn’t consider him for the top 5 of the Angels system.
I have Walden more in the 8-10 range. I would consider Richards, Chatwood, & Martinez-Mesa even though Walden probably has the safest (highest) floor of any.
I think we all pretty much know what we will be getting from Walden. He looks to be a solid 8th inning guy with the ceiling of a top 10-15 closer? He was never really over 1 K per inning in the minors so his high K rate in MLB will most likely come down next year.
The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.
Fair enough
If you massively discount back end relievers relative to SP’s
Personally, I think his stuff is heads and shoulders above any other Angels’ pitcher (and I really like Chatwood and FMM). In fact, I’d say his stuff his heads and shoulders above 90% of the hurlers you list above: 97 mph -101 mph fastball with above average sink and run that he can keep down in the zone, plus a good slider (when he’s on). Can you name more than 3-4 other current guys who come close to that? The stuff is there to back up his 2010 MLB line, even if, as you say, he’s likely to regress some.
Again, I do understand a discount for health issues, a volatile track record, and bullpen status. I just think you’re underselling his ceiling — A ceiling that he’s very close to reaching right now.
Walden
Certainly not trying to undersell his ceiling. As I mentioned, I think he can be a top 10-15 MLB closer. That is pretty stinkin’ good.
I actualy like Kimbrel better than Walden and I only place Kimbrel fifth with the Bravos (although they obviously have high ceiling guys at the top).
I hope you are right about Walden. I have been a fan of both he and Latos since they were the two of the last draft and follows a few years back.
The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.
Agreed on Walden
I think he is the Angels’ closer by the end of 2011, at which point he will already be one of the top 15 closers in baseball. Unfortunately I don’t ever see him moving back into the rotation though, so he will likely hit his ceiling very early in his MLB career.
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