Rookie Class of 2010- Best Prospect for future performance #6
by Dalman on Oct 26, 2010 11:44 PM EDT
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PrintMichael Stanton wins recognition as the 5th best rookie from the 2010 class with 42% of the vote. Madison Bumgarner is quite a ways back behind him with 17%. As a Rangers fan, I'd be curious to have someone compare Stanton to Chris Davis coming off of 2008, and discuss their similarities and differences as hitting prospects at those similar points. I'm not saying that I think that what happened to Davis is what will happen to Stanton, but their rookie seasons do look quite similar, in fact there is an argument that Davis's was better and while Stanton is widely credited with "80 power" on the scouting scale, the same was frequently said of Davis in 2007-2009. Anywhere, here is the list as of now:
1. Jason Heyward, outfield Atlanta Braves
2. Buster Posey, Catcher San Francisco Giants
3. Stephen Strasburg, pitcher Washington Nationals
4. Carlos Santana, catcher Cleveland Indians
5. Michael Stanton, outfielder Florida Marlins
I'm temporarily dropping everyone that got less than 3% of the vote this past round. That would include Austin Jackson, Daniel Hudson and Ike Davis. We'll give another shot to Justin Smoak this round, and give a first try to Jose Tabata, Carlos Carrasco and Wade Davis. Jonathon Niese will be added back next round.
temporarily dropped players: Jonathon Niese 1% (3), Jhoulys Chacin 0% (4), Mike Leake 0% (4), Ike Davis 2% (5), Daniel Hudson 1% (5), Austin Jackson 0% (5).
Among players who will get their first shot in the poll within the next several rounds are Danny Valencia, Logan Morrison, Peter Bourjos, Mitch Moreland, Brett Wallace, Travis Wood and John Axford. If you think someone else should be added before most or all of these guys let me know.
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Matusz
For me…Like the solid pitch mix and demeanor, should be a very good pitcher for a long time.
Also went Matusz.
Hemmed and hawed between him and Starlin.
been Matusz for a while
JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook
I think its gotta be Starlin
Solid defensive SS with a bat that should be well above average…at worst he should be good for 3.5 WAR going forward with a pretty good upside.
Not to mention that he's still only 20 years old
So there’s more “future” left than there is with a lot of the other guys.
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"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
Yeah...
immediately regretting my choice of Matusz. Starlin’s the easy answer here. Didn’t think long enough about it.
I really believe
he’s going to add a healthy amount of power and be, say, a 15-20 HR guy at his peak, if not more. The scary part is … his peak is at least a good 5 years away.
why's that scary?
In 5 years, every team in baseball will have a shot at him.
by slamcactus on Oct 27, 2010 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Power vs Position
I’ll take Alvarez’s power potential over Castro’s position in my toughest decision yet. Both would be ahead of Strasburg on my list. That would make my top 7;
1. Heyward
2. Posey
3. Stanton
4. Santana
5. Alvarez
6. Castro
7. Strasburg
Mike Stanton is on the Marlins not the Braves lol TYPO
If you didn't know by now, my screen name is sarcastic
This is where it gets interesting.
Top 5 were pretty obvious, with the order of Posey-Strasburg and Santana-Stanton being the discussion. I think there’s a big drop off from 5 to 6.
Starlin, for sure
Matusz will be next. I’m also surprised at the disparity of support between Smoak and Alvarez. They seem pretty damn similar to me.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
thats probably true
the fact that his ML start went worse than expected has probably dropped Smoak somewhat.
I picked Pedro anyway, though.
by BurgherKing on Oct 27, 2010 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions
Voting Bumgarner
Maintaining all the things that made him a great prospect while proving the doubters he can strike Major League hitters out. There’s a lot of projection left with this guy. He isn’t going to be Randy Johnson but as a 21-year-old he’s been pretty good in these playoffs and did pretty well in the regular season too. It says something about his future and his stuff is better than people give him credit for, along with solid ground ball rates… I don’t see how you could prefer Matusz.
Hudson needs to be back on the list, he has good stuff and durability enough to be a high/middle rotation starter. He rivals Matusz.
There's not actually that much projection with this guy...
at least in terms of purely physical projection. There are always exceptions, but on average velocity peaks in the early 20s and then steadily declines. There’s projection to speak of in terms of skill and refining command, but he’s not a guy you expect a big velo jump from.
As he gains strength and experience he'll be able to maintain his stuff longer
More importantly, as he refines command he should get more whiffs and/or ground balls. I also don’t think your assessment has a ton of merit to it. Look at Fangraphs pitch types for guys like John Danks, Johan Santana, Justin Verlander, Gavin Floyd, Zack Greinke, the list goes on where the pitchers gain velocity as they hit the mid-twenties. It is far from a universal rule. Staying healthy is the key.
by Daniel Berlyn on Oct 27, 2010 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Gotta be Starlin Castro.
He’s a 2.5-3.0 WAR player right now at age 20, and it’s hard not to imagine him improving a good deal from here.
I haven’t been this excited about a Cub since Mark Prior, and that only sort of counted because I was 11 or something. I think the Cubs might’ve finally found a cornerstone.
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I'm an editor for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
FWIW
it might be interesting to start a thread/poll series on best prospect for future performance in first 6 years.
As a Pirate fan, it doesn’t always matter to me, if someone is going to hit his peak let’s say 8 years down, something which is a real possibility in case of Castro. Of course, even smaller market teams can afford a few early contracts, with the counter of a bad contract being crippling.
In any case, I wanted to put this thought out there.
Hudson -- Other
I know I’m going to be in the minority here (and probably will be for a while), but I’d easily take Dan Hudson over most of the players listed above. I can definitely see arguments for Alvarez, Bumgarner, and Castro, but personally I’d still go with Hudson.
yeah, i was looking for hudson when i was thinking about this.
i took feliz but i definitely would consider hudson in the next few rounds.
wow...
ACORN is has really gotten out the Bumgarner “voters” in the past couple hours..
by PrincetonCubs on Oct 27, 2010 3:25 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Ah, the beauty of the poll system
http://bullpenbanter.com/
by Jeff Reese on Oct 27, 2010 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Newbies: this is why everything that matters around here is done with a +1 system where you have to put your name behind it.
Fans of a few teams ruin every poll around here.
Bullpen Banter
www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor
Not surprised at all...
the most disappointing part is that it is so blatant that there is no way to think it could possibly be anything else but ballot stuffing..
JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook
Agreed
No knowledgeable and neutral observer would vote for Bumgarner over Matusz.
by RM on Oct 27, 2010 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
thats not the point
the variation is picks is pretty staggering, especially when checking the outcomes over time from the various other polls. In less than 19 hours there is already 20% more total picks than there has been total for the previous poll that has been posted for 30 hours…
The same can be said for poll #1, 2, 3 and 4…
so all of the sudden the voting patterns of the entire population at minor league ball has changed or someone is manipulating the system. You tell me which is more probable…
That is the reason why I talk about it being blatant. If you are going to manipulate the poll, do it in a small amount to gurantee victory. Lack of criminal sophistication or lack of knowledge in basic statistics is the point I am making. Doing it in obvious bulk form makes it really easy to notice and everyone to diminish the results.
JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook
I completely disagree
But year the poll is whack
by Daniel Berlyn on Oct 27, 2010 8:33 PM EDT up reply actions
I do want to get this right
do we need to take it to plus 1? Anyone willing to help?
Bumgarner very possibly legitimately winning this anyway...
Just saying…
Bullpen Banter
www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor
this is very true
figured it was worth pointing out the obvious, though
by PrincetonCubs on Oct 27, 2010 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't think Bumgarner is the legit winner
We should move to +1.
by RM on Oct 27, 2010 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd re-do it w/ the +1
voting volume was way too weird
by PrincetonCubs on Oct 28, 2010 2:06 AM EDT up reply actions
he did get twice as much as Castro last round
so at least it is consistent.
not quite
less than twice as much last time, almost 3x as many this time. the volume, of course, is the problem
by PrincetonCubs on Oct 27, 2010 7:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe give it to Bumgarner this round
From here on out we should probably go to the +1 system however. The voting in this poll got real ridiculous real fast.
Bumgarner over Castro?!
Lolwut. Yes +1 seems oh so much better. Maybe a required explanation too…
World Series attitude, champagne bottle life, nothing every changes so tonight is like tomorrow night.
fine, we'll take it to plus 1 after counting this round
I’m going to have look back at how we did it on the community prospect list and get the next round up as soon as I can. I’m a little distracted by the WS at the moment, though.
also
can we put an * next to Bumgarner on this list? he is a Giant after all… ;)
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