Preliminary New York Mets Prospect List
by John Sickels on Oct 25, 2010 10:00 PM EDT
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PrintHere is my current working list of Mets prospects. This currently stands at 41; there is an awful lot of Grade C on this list and several guys are quite marginal for inclusion in the book. Feel free to suggest cuts, as well as additions.
Manuel Alvarez RHP
Michael Antonini LHP
Eric Campbell OF-3B
Darrell Ceciliani OF
Mark Cohoon LHP
Albert Cordero C
Jose De La Torre RHP
Matt Den Dekker OF
Zach Dotson LHP
Lucas Duda OF
Jeurys Familia RHP
Wilmer Flores SS
Blake Forsythe C
James Fuller LHP
Dillon Gee RHP
Erik Goeddel RHP
Brian Harrison 3B
Matt Harvey RHP
Reese Havens 2B
Brad Holt RHP
Vicente Lupo OF
Zach Lutz 3B
Jefry Marte 3B
Fernando Martinez OF
Steve Matz LHP
Jenrry Mejia RHP
Brandon Moore RHP
Akeel Morris RHP
Kirk Nieuwenhuis OF
Cesar Puello OF
Sean Ratliff OF
Aderlin Rodriguez 3B
Armando Rodriguez RHP
Javier Rodriguez OF
Juan Urbina LHP
Josh Satin 2B
Robbie Shields SS
Josh Stinson RHP
Justin Turner 2B
Jordany Valdespin 2B
Cory Vaughn OF
Guys like Turner, Alvarez, or Stinson could easily be cut if there are lower level players of greater interest. Should I put Kyle Allen back on here?
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I would cut Stinson, Alvarez, Turner, Brandon Moore and James Fuller in favor of Allen, Robert Carson, Wilfredo Tovar, Juan Lagares and Ryan Fraser.
Agree with MetFan
Except I’d keep more in favor of Fraser. Not saying that any of these guys should be on the least but where do the younger Met’s pitchers with upside like Tapia, Hebert, DeGrom, Walters, Peavy all stand?
Stefan Welch
I had high hopes for him, especially after he had a great last year and even a good beginning, until a terrible July and August derailed it.
Allen absolutely needs to be on there
He pitched much of this season with a back injury. I would cut Alvarez, the next guy off for me would actually be Brandon Moore.
I think Francisco Pena, Robert Carson, Kai Gronauer, Eric Niesen, and if you want a deeper sleeper, Gilbert Gomez. Carson, Gronauer and Niesen are all AFL participants.
Kai Gronauer
Maybe I´m biased because I´ve watched him play in person several times but Gronauer has been – by far – the best player coming out of Germany to sign with a major league team thus far. While it´s tough comparing a fully grown C in his early 20s with a work in project like Twins teenie prospect Max Kepler, Gronauer seems prettty advanced and very much held his own in the FSL this year. Especially considering the lack of playing time in Germany for any player (about 15-18 games per season until age 16 and about 35-40 games per season afterwards in a totally amateur league). And once you consider that, the positive reports on his catching skills are even more impressive besides a solid bat. He definitely needs to make this list and actually adds some flair.
While Robert Carson & Kyle Allen didn´t have very good seasons, they both have pretty good stuff, aren´t old yet, so both should be on.
And I hope, organizational bias (“dumb organization”) won´t be a factor compiling this list.
Looking back at last year, this system produced significantly more solid major league talent (Davis, Niese, Thole, Tejada, plus cameos from Gee, Duda and Mejia) than one would have expected.
I agree with this
Gronauer is in the AFL, which should count for something. Especially considering the way that he hit in St. Lucie this year.
Sandy Alderson for Mets GM
R.A. Dickey for Governor!
Ok
Ok, you guys are right about Gronauer. How about this:
Kyle Allen RHP
Manuel Alvarez RHP
Eric Campbell OF-3B
Robert Carson LHP
Darrell Ceciliani OF
Mark Cohoon LHP
Albert Cordero C
Jose De La Torre RHP
Matt Den Dekker OF
Zach Dotson LHP
Lucas Duda OF
Jeurys Familia RHP
Wilmer Flores SS
Blake Forsythe C
James Fuller LHP
Dillon Gee RHP
Erik Goeddel RHP
Kai Gronauer C
Brian Harrison 3B
Matt Harvey RHP
Reese Havens 2B
Brad Holt RHP
Vicente Lupo OF
Zach Lutz 3B
Jefry Marte 3B
Fernando Martinez OF
Steve Matz LHP
Jenrry Mejia RHP
Akeel Morris RHP
Kirk Nieuwenhuis OF
Cesar Puello OF
Sean Ratliff OF
Aderlin Rodriguez 3B
Armando Rodriguez RHP
Javier Rodriguez OF
Juan Urbina LHP
Josh Satin 2B
Robbie Shields SS
Wilfredo Tovar SS
Jordany Valdespin 2B
Cory Vaughn OF
I could cut Mejia since he exceeded service time, but normally i just use the innings requirement and ignore service time issues.
I think you have to include a guy like Mejia regardless of any MLB service technicalities
I mean, if Omar Minaya had gone completely insane and put Wilmer Flores on the major league club for two months this year, then regained his senses and sent him back to A ball, Wilmer’s Rookie of the Year eligibility would be shot but it would be silly to not consider him a prospect anymore.
You could also cut Mejia using the Daniel Bard ruling
He exceeded 30 MLB appearances.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
alvarez
I want to keep Alvarez on there. I know he’s not a great prospect, but his performance was quite good this year and I could see him sneaking into the majors in ’11. I try to make sure guys like that are covered.
Alvarez or de la Torre
I guess the question is whether they are more likely to sneak into MLB than Turner or Stinson. I was kind of baffled the Mets didn’t give Turner more a look last year, but maybe a new regime will have different ideas there. Unless they add someone in the offseason (which they really should), I’d have him a serious candidate to even be their starting 2B.
Could maybe cut Fuller, as I think most also see him eventually making it as a relief arm, but it wouldn’t likely happen as soon as next year.
I think some might cut Forsythe, though I kind of still like him despite the uninspiring debut….but striking out in 35% of PA in Brooklyn is pretty ugly.
by acerimusdux on Oct 26, 2010 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions
yeah
yeah….i can see a Forstythe cut, although i try to put the earliy round draft picks in
by John Sickels on Oct 26, 2010 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Forsythe
I kind of liked the pick at draft time, I’m usually defending that one, pointing out he was a full year younger than Gibbs, for example. So I’d still like to give him a mulligan for 30 games in his debut. Discipline and power should still be there.
I wonder what the scouting is on Armando Rodriguez; the numbers look decent, and he probably belongs, but I really haven’t heard a lot of enthusiasm about him.
I would keep Allen on there; he looked pretty good earlier on, shows some feel for a decent change, I’d guess the worry there is over whether the back injury is a one time deal or will turn into something more chronic.
by acerimusdux on Oct 26, 2010 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions
list
Kyle Allen RHP
Manuel Alvarez RHP
Eric Campbell OF-3B
Robert Carson LHP
Darrell Ceciliani OF
Mark Cohoon LHP
Albert Cordero C
Jose De La Torre RHP
Matt Den Dekker OF
Zach Dotson LHP
Lucas Duda OF
Jeurys Familia RHP
Wilmer Flores SS
Blake Forsythe C
James Fuller LHP
Dillon Gee RHP
Erik Goeddel RHP
Brian Harrison 3B
Matt Harvey RHP
Reese Havens 2B
Brad Holt RHP
Vicente Lupo OF
Zach Lutz 3B
Jefry Marte 3B
Fernando Martinez OF
Steve Matz LHP
Jenrry Mejia RHP
Akeel Morris RHP
Kirk Nieuwenhuis OF
Cesar Puello OF
Sean Ratliff OF
Aderlin Rodriguez 3B
Armando Rodriguez RHP
Javier Rodriguez OF
Josh Satin 2B
Robbie Shields SS
Justin Turner 2B
Juan Urbina LHP
Jordany Valdespin 2B
Cory Vaughn OF
I like this
I like Tovar and Gronauer some, but I think both guys will top out as backups or bench guys, and they are farther away right now than the guys you are including. Both guys to maybe keep an eye on next year.
by acerimusdux on Oct 26, 2010 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions
oops
actually gronauer is supposed to be on there. Tovar i’ve decided to drop.
by John Sickels on Oct 26, 2010 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Tovar
Just an FYI, from the six games that I’ve seen him play, he is definitely ready with the glove to play SS in the majors, and I believe that he would be in the discussion for a gold glove. His bat, however, is a different story.
The Mets GM is Sandy Alderson: A Dynasty is Born
R.A. Dickey for Governor!
fringe guys
i feel the same way about stinson and eric beaulac, interesting guys to watch for now but long-term, likely a couple of average middle relievers if that.
i’d consider a couple of athletic outfielders who had good years, julio concepcion in the GCL and eudy pina in the DSL. i’m watching pina especially because he’s still only 19.
a nice arm who could jump up this list next year is eduardo aldama who pitched for kingsport as a 20-yr old while coming back from injury this season. i’d go with him before tapia, cuan or almonte because of the big disparity in k-rates. aldama hits the low 90’s pretty easy and has that nice, long, projectable frame. expecting to see him pitch well in savannah next year.
by Rob Castellano on Oct 27, 2010 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions
How about Nick Carr?
Very little track record to go off there, as far as numbers, but he’s currently throwing 93-97 in the AFL, with a mid 80s slider, per pitchFX. Was coming off TJ surgery, I think command remains an issue.
But I’d probably still take Carr, Stinson, or maybe Ryan Fraser, over Alvarez.
carr
I don’t like Stinson very much.
Carr I will look closely at. Nice call on that one, forgot about him due to the injury.
by John Sickels on Oct 26, 2010 10:56 PM EDT up reply actions
interesting
that’s a tough call between the relievers.
for me, carr is like a slightly worse version of bobby parnell: 3-4 ticks less on the fb, inconsistent mid-80’s slider, even less command in the strike zone than parnell. but that profile still plays as a decent high velocity, late relief prospect as soon as 2011. only thing is that he’s definitely got injury concerns.
i like alvarez. i think as a reliever who can hit the low 90’s and throw a strong curve all with pinpoint command he’s underrated. just that fact that he throws strikes endears him to me after what the mets have run out there the last couple years in the ‘pen. i’d keep him on the list.
fraser could easily be the best of the group but he profiles a lot like carr (hi velo, undeveloped secondary pitch, lacking command) except he’s lower on the org. ladder so i’d skip him.
by Rob Castellano on Oct 27, 2010 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm extremely high on Matt Harvey...
so I’ll be curious to see what grade he gets. Everything’s there for a TOR starter.
I've been reckless with this comp but...
if there’s a Verlander type arm from last year’s draft it’s Harvey. I expect him to look really good in 2011.
Almonte and Cuan
John, this is my first time posting…As a Mets fan, I am wondering as to why your list does not include Yohan Almonte and Angel Cuan. Both pitchers were 20 years old and pitched very well in the NYPL. Granted they are not high strikeout guys, but the Mets seem to have found success with guys like them. The two pitchers were young for the league had decent to very good groundball rates and were just plain successful. That has to have some value, no?
it does
It does, and I looked at both of them. both could get in but I’d have to drop someone else. the mets list is now at 41, and I need to get that down to 40 or less. The twins, braves, and royals all stand at 42 now and i need to cut people to get them down to 40 also. In marginal cases, I will usually pick a player closer to the majors rather than someone further away, but it all depends.
by John Sickels on Oct 27, 2010 9:46 AM EDT up reply actions
As a fellow Mets fan
you should join Amazin’ Avenue, which is the SB Nation Mets blog.
The Mets GM is Sandy Alderson: A Dynasty is Born
R.A. Dickey for Governor!
add
Brant Rustich. He’s had arm problems but they figured out what it was. he has GREAT stuff. throws mid to high 90s, a nasty slider. flamethrower. former 2nd round pick.
Ryan Fraser. just go look at his stats. was a shutdown closer for Brooklyn this year, has nice velocity. might be converted to starter.
Domingo Tapia. Good Stuff, nice stats.
and you should at least consider Angel Cuan
decisions
i am getting too bogged down here. I’ll put fraser in although he’s got to lower the walk rate. I just don’t have the room for everyone interesting…
toss a coin
You could pretty much flip for the last spot between these relievers; Alvarez (your initial choice) would be fine as well. Also, the Mets will have to decide soon between Carr, Alvarez, Stinson, de la Torre, whether any of these guys are worth protecting from the rule 5 draft. You would probably still have a chance to do a last minute edit and include anyone they add?
by acerimusdux on Oct 28, 2010 12:01 AM EDT up reply actions
fraser
ouch. his walk rate is bad. 5.7 bb/9?
still, i like him.
Mets just signed IFA Elvis Sanchez
3B prospect with huge power, I don’t know if it’s too late but if Lupo is on the list then Sanchez should probably be too.
yes
"The one thing you don't want to do is hit a home run. That's a rally-killer." -Jeff Francoeur
by RangersandMets on Oct 28, 2010 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Elvis Sanchez video
per Ben Badler:
“is one of the best power hitters in Latin America [with]… plus to plus-plus raw power that comes from his strength and bat speed…Sanchez will have to keep his conditioning in check, and several scouts believe he will ultimately move to first base. "
Mets seem to sign a lot of this type lately, corner IF/OF guys with power.
list
I kicked Lupo off. I might restore him and put on Sanchez but i am already desperate for space and am massively bogged down.
by John Sickels on Oct 28, 2010 10:07 PM EDT up reply actions
elvis sanchez
from what ive read he reminds me alot of aderlin rodriguez
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