Rookie Class of 2010-Best Prospect for future perfornance #4

by Dalman on Oct 25, 2010 12:48 AM EDT

Closest race so far, but clear enough at this point to call it for Strasburg with 30%, ahead of Santana with 22% and Stanton with 21%, after a little more than 250 votes. In a somewhat similar situation last year, Jordan Zimmerman fell from what I would have guessed at a placement in the teens to 25 after his own round of TJ surgery. Strasburg doesn't fall nearly so far, but I am assuming that he would have been the overwhelming choice for #1 if not for the injury. Here is where we are so far:

1. Jason Heyward, outfield Atlanta Braves

2. Buster Posey, catcher San Francisco Giants

3. Stephen Strasburg, pitcher Washington Nationals

Niese and Smoak got just 1% last round and will get dropped for a bit. I'll add Mike Leake for the first time this round and bring back Neftali Feliz, Brian Matusz and Jhoulys Chacin. I'm looking to get Austin Jackson, Daniel Hudson and Ike Davis back next round, by which time it should become increasingly clear from the votes who should stay on the ballot and who can be dropped..

temporarily dropped players: Austin Jackson 0% (1), Daniel Hudson 1% (2), Ike Davis 1% (2), Jonathon Niese 1% (3), Justin Smoak 1% (3)

I'm not expecting to add any brand new players next round, but should be able to add a couple the following round, so suggest away.

Poll

Who is the best prospect for future performance among the following, from the rookie class of 2010:

Michael Stanton

50 votes

Madison Bumgarner

31 votes

Carlos Santana

67 votes

Starlin Castro

11 votes

Pedro Alvarez

6 votes

Jaime Garcia

8 votes

Jhoulys Chacin

1 votes

Neftali Feliz

11 votes

Brian Matusz

9 votes

Mike Leake

1 votes

other (please specify)

2 votes

197 votes | Poll has closed

Tweet Comment 27 comments | 0 recs |

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Comments

Easily Santana for me here

However I could see a case for either Stanton or Starlin, and I wouldn’t be upset with either of them getting voted on here either

by brok515 on Oct 25, 2010 1:02 AM EDT reply actions

+1

Buster Posey>
"I thought he was going to punch me and I was totally accepting of it. I was planning a reason to thank him if he did." Brian Wilson on Buster Posey

by Gobroks on Oct 25, 2010 3:33 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Strasburg

I’m not sure he would have been a “clear” #1 even without the surgery this season. There’s just so much risk that a truly elite bat should be rated higher than an equally elite arm. That’s just my opinion, though.

Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.

by biggentleben on Oct 25, 2010 1:11 AM EDT reply actions

hmm..

Personally, I would have thought long and hard before putting him ahead of Heyward even before the injury. But, if he wasn’t #1 for most pre-injury, are we really giving him enough of a haircut now?

by Dalman on Oct 25, 2010 1:30 AM EDT reply actions

I think where he's at

is just right. He could be argued anywhere from 3-7 as I feel that group of guys (likely Strasburg, Santana, Stanton, Castro, and Bumgarner, in no particular order) are nearly interchangeable after Heyward and Posey. Strasburg’s pre-injury performance was in the historic range that Heyward’s hitting was this season before his injury. Heyward isn’t hurt mid-season, who knows the numbers he puts up. However, Strasburg was nearing his inning limit anyway when he went down, so we nearly know what we would have seen of him anyway. You can evaluate performance as if you got a full-season’s worth from him, but you now have to add risk to it, so he moves out of the top echelon, but he’s still definitely in the 3-7 conversation after injury, so #3 makes sense to me.

Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.

by biggentleben on Oct 25, 2010 7:33 AM EDT up reply actions

I think Bumgarner...

lags pretty far behind the rest of that 3-7 group you listed. I’d take Matusz over him for sure, and maybe Derek Holland. There’s an argument for Bumgarner over both of those guys, but he’s definitely not “interchangeable” with a group that includes incredible talents like Santana and Stanton.

by slamcactus on Oct 25, 2010 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

i can see that

I’m not saying that is a definite group. that’s my group of 3-7 from the very beginning.

Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.

by biggentleben on Oct 25, 2010 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions

Starlin

He has a really good bat for a SS and is going to develop 20 HR power. He also has a great glove which makes him very valuble. I could see maybe Santana if he sticks at catcher, but I love Castro

If you didn't know by now, my screen name is sarcastic

by mathisrocks5 on Oct 25, 2010 2:30 AM EDT reply actions

yes on Starlin

and then Stanton, Santana

by PrincetonCubs on Oct 25, 2010 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions

heard a season concluding interview

and Acta was already planting the seeds of Santana moving to first sometime in 2011. Hope thats not the case but it’s not good they are already considering it.

"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."

by fourfingerwoo on Oct 25, 2010 2:34 AM EDT reply actions

Well then you can trade Fielder lol

If you didn't know by now, my screen name is sarcastic

by mathisrocks5 on Oct 25, 2010 3:06 AM EDT up reply actions

Stanton

He’s a once in a generation power hitter, and I think that the March hot streak he went on is representative of what he could do when he develops further. Barring injury he’ll enter the 500 HR club.

by kyuss94 on Oct 25, 2010 10:14 AM EDT reply actions

Once in a generation power hitter...

vs. guy with a 20% BB-rate and very good power from the catcher position…I’ll take Santana. Stanton’s got phenomenal power, but I want to see him post a slightly lower K-rate before I’m sure he’s not just a rich man’s Mark Reynolds. Even in that scenario I think Stanton’s going to be a great player, but I think Santana will run OBPs in the .420-.450 range to go with his 25hr power. That’s approaching MVP territory.

by slamcactus on Oct 25, 2010 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions

Still..

Stanton plays great defense as well and has a fantastic arm. I

by Havok1517 on Oct 25, 2010 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah.

Just so we’re clear, I really, really like Stanton. Even if he doesn’t exceed the floor of “just” a rich man’s Mark Reynolds (that doesn’t sound like too high of praise, but it’s actually a very good player). I just like Santana more. Stanton’s got more power, but Santana pairs an absolutely elite batting eye with plus power of his own, and he does it from the catcher position.

I wouldn’t fault anyone for preferring Stanton. Both of them bring rare and elite skills to the table. I just think Santana has potential to be one of the top-5 hitters alive, while I think Stanton’s solid but not elite OBP will keep him in the 10-15 group.

by slamcactus on Oct 25, 2010 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions

Just to add to that...

When the top 5 of a rookie class doesn’t include names like Castro, Bumgarner, Feliz, Alvarez, and Matusz (assuming Stanton is 5) it means you have had a legendary rookie class.

No offense to these players, but compare that to 2009 ROYs Andrew Bailey and Chris Coghlan.

by Kenneth Arthur on Oct 25, 2010 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions

a bit of apples and oranges in that comparison

considering that Coghlan ranked 16th, and Bailey 26th in this poll last year. More relevant as a comparison to Heyward, Posey, Strasburg, Santana is last year’s top 4 of Wieters, Hanson, McCutchen and Anderson. Especially given hindsight regardiing Wieters, I probably like this year’s top 4 better, but its not quite as overwhelming a comparision as all that.

by Dalman on Oct 25, 2010 11:35 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, last year's class was pretty awesome

Romero and Stubbs were underrated at the time too.

http://bullpenbanter.com/

by Jeff Reese on Oct 26, 2010 8:44 AM EDT up reply actions

Stanton

by Yankees10 on Oct 25, 2010 11:39 AM EDT reply actions

Bumgarner

Lefty with top notch stuff in a pitcher ballpark. He will post some incredible numbers there the next 5 years.

by Braves1983 on Oct 25, 2010 5:07 PM EDT reply actions

I know his velocity bounced back...

but “top notch stuff” is a pretty big overstatement.

by slamcactus on Oct 25, 2010 6:52 PM EDT up reply actions

I don’t know about that. His secondaries have ranged from average to very good, which is a pretty big improvement on where he was. Even with his current breaking ball, he’s got what I would consider top-notch stuff for a lefthander with his control, deception, velocity, and secondary offerings.

by limozeen on Oct 25, 2010 7:04 PM EDT up reply actions

your top notch must be overfilled.

by larry on Oct 25, 2010 7:11 PM EDT up reply actions

Seriously.

I define “top notch” as among the best in the game. I’m comfortable at this point saying Bumgarner has solidly above-average stuff, but it wouldn’t be too hard to list 20-35 starters with better repertoires.

by slamcactus on Oct 25, 2010 7:25 PM EDT up reply actions