Kansas City Royals Top 20 Prospects for 2011
by John Sickels on Jan 9, 2011 3:24 PM EST
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Kansas City Royals Top 20 Prospects for 2011
UPDATED January 9, 2011
The list and grades are a blending of present performance and long-term potential. Full reports on all of players can be found in the 2011 Baseball Prospect Book. We are now taking pre-orders. Order early and order often!
QUICK PRIMER ON GRADE MEANINGS:
Grade A prospects are the elite. They have a good chance of becoming stars or superstars. Almost all Grade A prospects develop into major league regulars, if injuries or other problems don't intervene. Note that is a major "if" in some cases.
Grade B prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers. Some will develop into stars, some will not. Most end up spending several years in the majors, at the very least in a marginal role.
Grade C prospects are the most common type. These are guys who have something positive going for them, but who may have a question mark or three, or who are just too far away from the majors to get an accurate feel for. A few Grade C guys, especially at the lower levels, do develop into stars. Many end up as role players or bench guys. Some don't make it at all.
A major point to remember is that grades for pitchers do NOT correspond directly to grades for hitters. Many Grade A pitching prospects fail to develop, often due to injuries. Some Grade C pitching prospects turn out much better than expected.
Also note that there is diversity within each category. I'm a tough grader; Grade C+ is actually good praise coming from me, and some C+ prospects turn out very well indeed.
Finally, keep in mind that all grades are shorthand. You have to read the full comment for my full opinion about a player, the letter grade only tells you so much. A Grade C prospect in rookie ball could end up being very impressive, while a Grade C prospect in Triple-A is likely just a future role player.
Kansas City Royals Top 20 Prospects
1) Mike Moustakas, 3B, Grade A: This guy is really damn good. I believe he can stick at third base, so he ranks ahead of Hosmer just barely.
2) Eric Hosmer, 1B, Grade A: This guy is really damn good.
3) Wil Myers, C, Grade A: If I trusted his defense a bit more, he would rank number one. As it is, even if he ends up in right field I have no hesitation giving him a Grade A rating. The bat should be outstanding.
4) Danny Duffy, LHP, Grade B+-: Originally a Grade A-, dropped one notch at book press time but still highest-rated in system.
5) Michael Montgomery, LHP, Grade B+: Worried a bit about future of his elbow, but I moved him ahead of Lamb because I do think his ultimate upside is a bit higher.
6) John Lamb, LHP, Grade B+: Slippage in Double-A keeps him from A- at this time, but an outstanding pros
pect.
7) Jake Odorizzi, RHP, Grade B+: A personal favorite since he was in high school. I love his combination of command and stuff.
8) Jeremy Jeffress, RHP, Grade B+: Grade is a bit risky due to command issues, but this is an upside call.
9) Chris Dwyer, LHP, Grade B: Almost went with a B+, but something holds me back a bit on him. Great stuff, but I'm not totally sold on his command yet.
10) Brett Eibner, OF, Grade B: I love the power bat; will have to see if contact is an issue and if he can stick in center.
11) Christian Colon, SS, Grade B: I doubt he'll be a star, but I expect he can have a long career as a regular.
12) Johnny Giavotella, 2B, Grade B-: Love the bat, defense still needs some work but has improved a bit.
13) Louis Coleman, RHP, Grade B-: I know he's a reliever, but he will be ready to help soon and I think there is a chance he could end up closing some games eventually. I think he is underrated and thus his grade is aggressive for a reliever.
14) Aaron Crow, RHP, Grade C+: Ranking him behind Coleman may look weird, but I am more confident that Coleman will be a good major league pitcher than I am in Crow right now, although Crow has a higher ceiling.
15) Tim Melville, RHP, Grade C+ Not a good year, but not as bad as it looked. Talent is still there.
16) Tim Collins, LHP, Grade C+: Can help in bullpen in 2011. Numbers are no fluke. Would rank ahead of Melville and even Crow if you are looking for immediate impact.
17) Patrick Keating, RHP, Grade C+: Overlooked arm with above average stuff. Royals have makings of a great pen with Coleman, Collins, and Keating all close to the majors.
18) Salvador Perez, C, Grade C+: I think he's a breakthrough candidate.
19) Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, Grade C+: Hard to rank. Scouts like him, he's young, but the early numbers are weak. Would rank higher if you go by nothing but tools, wouldn't be on the top 20 at all if you go by numbers, so this is a compromise.
20) Clint Robinson, 1B, Grade C+: I've seen enough of him to believe he can mash for power, but finding a place to play is tough.
21) Jeff Bianchi, INF, Grade C+: Hard to rank due to health record. He could end up being very good as soon as 2011 under the right circumstances.
22) David Lough, OF, Grade C+: Could be a nice fourth outfielder.
23) Kevin Chapman, LHP, Grade C+: Another guy who can be a solid major league reliever pretty quickly.
24) Buddy Baumann, LHP, Grade C+: Overshadowed by the younger lefties, but should not be ignored.
25) Will Smith, LHP, Grade C+: I think he has a better chance to thrive here than he did with the Angels.
26) Robinson Yambati, RHP, Grade C+: Rookie ball guy could break through in '11.
27) Yordano Ventura, RHP, Grade C+: Rookie ball guy could break through in ‘11
28) Jason Adam, RHP, Grade C+: Just scouting reports so far on this one, but a local kid with a live arm that I have a good intuitive feeling about.
OTHERS: Noel Arguelles, LHP; Mike Antonio, SS; Willian Avinazar, RHP; Jarrod Dyson, OF; Yowill Espinal, 2B; Nick Francis, OF; Blaine Hardy, LHP; Greg Holland, RHP; Lucas May, C; Paulo Orlando, OF; Edgar Osuna, LHP; Manny Pina, C; Derrick Robinson, OF; Leonel Santiago, RHP; Crawford Simmons, LHP; Tim Smith, OF; Everett Teaford, LHP
What can you say? This is one hell of a farm system. While the young pitching gets a large amount of attention, and deservedly so, the Royals also have three of the most elite young bats in baseball in the Moustakas/Hosmer/Myers troika. I'm also a huge fan of Brett Eibner. In addition to the possible future stars, they have considerable depth in C+ types, some projecting as role players, some as possible regulars if things pan out properly. The exact ranking of players 12 to 26 would vary depending on if you are looking short or long term.
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Geez, 4 A rated prospects. This is a great farm system
If you didn't know by now, my screen name is sarcastic
John,
I’ve never heard so much profound language in one team post before. They must be pretty darn good…. :)
Grading is subjective of course, but not necessarily as uncommon as you might think
2007, Rays had Delmon and Longoria as legitimate As to most, and you could have argued Brignac as a third. At the same time, Arizona had J. Upton, C. Young, and CarGo. If not 2007, then DBacks again in 2006, with all 3 of the above still in the mix, but also adding S. Drew as a common top 10 rank prospect, plus Conor Jackson and Carlos Quentin as possibilities. Brewers in 04 had Weeks, Fielder, and Hardy, 2003 Rays had the other Upton, Baldelli, and Hamilton; so on and so forth. Before I get jumped on, not saying all of the above were necessarily universal straight A trios or comparing against this one.
by goldenblack on Oct 24, 2010 10:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Dodgers 05-06 were pretty awesome too
They had Billingsley, Broxton, Ethier, Kemp , Kuo, LaRoche, Loney, Martin, Navarro and Delwyn Young.
D-backs '06 were pretty stacked as well
Upton, Drew, Jackson, Quentin, Young and Gonzalez were all in BA’s top 32.
by CaptainCanuck on Oct 25, 2010 12:38 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I like this farm system better...
most of those guys all had glaring holes in their games. The only problems I have with the three A’s in this system are their defense. All three have incredible bats and I wouldn’t be suprised to see them become stars. Quentin and Young stuck out too much, Jackson had little power, and Drew was just plain overated(although he became a pretty decent major leaguer).
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
I suppose 5.1 FanGraphs WAR in '10
Is a “pretty decent major leaguer.” Actually, you’re the one underrating him.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qU_9zTD9B98&feature=related
Apparently there's an epilepsy warning on this video. But it's so incredibly cool.
by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 28, 2010 9:25 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Love the LHPs
Some people in the Royals organization feel that Dwyer is the best of the Big Four® as I’ll term them. Not going to argue on his grade, but he could end up being the best. I agree with you on Duffy being the top of the Big Four® though. I’m anxious to see which guys take big steps forward next year and which don’t.
Yeah, can't think of when anyone's had 4 advanced LHPs this good
I agree with Dwyer as the Ringo of the quartet (mostly on floor though, not ceiling), but which way I’d order the other three changes every 5 minutes.
On a side note, don’t want to go for the obvious alliteration with Fantastic Four?
by goldenblack on Oct 24, 2010 11:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Not really on the Fantastic Four. : )
What happens when Teaford and Simmons and Buamann make it 7? Then I can just change the number.
Big Four
I love what I have read on Duffy so far, except for one article by Keith Law. He is very low on Duffy, and I am not sure why. Being a Royals fan, I have to love that there are 4 legitimate starting lefties just a year or two away.
The Big 3 hitters are very exciting to read about as well. Any chance that Moustakas and Hosmer get a significant number of ABs next year? What about Myers possible move to RF, is there any water to hold here?
by royal_in_cincinnati on Oct 26, 2010 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions
If one gets any time this year, it'll be Moustakas
But I don’t think until after the Super Two deadline passes.
Yeah, they'll take their time with Moustakas
I’m guessing that they tender Wilson Betemit and let him play for a while. Presumably they’ll call up Moose after his FA has been pushed back a year, and then they’ll look into seeing what Betemit could fetch on the trade market if he’s still playing remotely as well as he did in 2010.
Baseball is my preferred sport. It should be yours, too.
I'm an editor for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
by Satchel Price on Oct 28, 2010 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions
Jason Adam
I think he’s a tough one to grade. But he will probably be in the top ten on this list next season.
Holy crap
4 A prospects? I’m not going to argue, although I think Duffy is kind of a stretch. I would have gone B+
I am somewhat surprised that Moustakas gets your number one nod, not because I think it is wrong but because other rankings seem to have either/or/both Hosmer and Myers ahead of Moose.
Waiting for April.
Mous has good recent defensive reports at 3B
That’s the key in my mind, really. And it’s the main thing holding him back. The plate discipline needs to improve, but if you have contact and power the plate discipline isn’t as important. You can be a very, very good hitter with a .300/.330/.500 line.
Great arm at 3B. My only concern is range. IT will be key for him to stay in shape throughout his career.
Yeah, and worst case scenario you move him to DH
His power is going to be valuable regardless of where he plays
Waiting for April.
Yes.
I love that he’s getting good D reports though. I spoke to a member of a different organization last year and he wasn’t up on Mous’s body or his D. He’ll have to work at staying baseball nimble.
He had 2 defensive gems in the futures game before the all star game...
Granted “web gems” aren’t the best way to judge defensive talent, but they were shocking to see since all I heard was that he was a butcher over there.
broken sun clocks a dog's ass every twice and again --- Crooow
by averagegatsby on Oct 25, 2010 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions
He's either going to be an elite contact/power hitter
Or, more likely, he’ll have to start taking walks as pitchers figure his holes out. What I’m saying is that a .300/.330/.500 line is a little odd of a fit for him, I expect him to be better than that at points.
by Daniel Berlyn on Oct 25, 2010 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Future Infield is sick
Assuming everyone stays at their position
C-Myers
1b-hosmer
2b-giavotella
ss-colon
3b-moustakas
Yankee 2010 Shadow Draft
1. A.J Cole-SP
2. Austin Wilson-RF
3. Jesse Hahn-SP
4. A.J Vanegas-SP
5. Kevin Gausman-SP
6. Kris Bryant-1B
by Lurkingoutside on Oct 24, 2010 10:44 PM EDT reply actions
That's a pretty bad defensive infield
Other than Hos, who could be a Gold Glover.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Oct 24, 2010 11:08 PM EDT up reply actions
yes, some scouts seem to think that Colon is more of a 2B long-term
Giavotella can’t play anywhere else (maybe 3B?) so that will be interesting if Colon proves that he can’t cut it defensively at shortstop at higher levels.
Waiting for April.
Couldn't have said it better myself.
This is an excellent system throughout. I’d love to see Mous, Hosmer, and Myers for the coming seasons especially given the financial constraints the Royals set for themselves.
Baseball makes the world go 'round, or at least in my world it does.
by Whiteyballer on Oct 25, 2010 10:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Three straight A prospects, all but one (Hosmer) with fairly serious questions surrounding their defensive future? An A- for Duffy seems awfully aggressive as well, I definitely like Lamb more and possibly still Montgomery despite the arm issues.
Not to be a Debby Downer but I think the love of the Royals farm is reaching unrealistic levels. I think most of the top 10, with the exception of Hosmer and Montgomery, could be knocked down a grade. In my opinion, to earn an A grade, you should have no glaring issues in your game (so consistent play, no extreme splits, a solidified defensive position with value, pinpoint command with plus stuff, etc) and only Hosmer seems to fit that bill to me (and he is a 1B). To get an A-, having one, maybe two small holes in their game that shouldn’t affect their future performance too much (maybe a move from C to RF for example or the stuff with developing command).
Don’t get me wrong, the system is full of good to great prospects but I think expectations have really grown to unrealistic levels recently. I just get the feeling the Royals are the new bandwagon team. I know there are some members here that have been Royals fans the whole time but there seems to be a growing number around here. We will see how it goes, John is generally fairly conservative with his grades. For him to give out three A grades and an A-, he must be expecting 3-4 perennial all stars, borderline MVP caliber players out of this system.
just a random note in case people hadn't heard, Royals-related
Wil Myers has been learning how to play right field and played there the other day in instructionals, although I believe he is still definitely a C. I’m thinking the Royals are just trying to cover their bases in case Myers’ bat ends up being too good not to keep him on the move.
Faketeams
had a report from the Kansas City Star
If everybody likes you, then either no one knows anything about you, or you're dead.
dang midwest media
bias.
"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."
by fourfingerwoo on Oct 25, 2010 12:34 AM EDT reply actions 4 recs
If you add a top 5 picks to this next year, geeeeeeeeeez that has to be the best farm ever
If you didn't know by now, my screen name is sarcastic
imagine if DM wouldve pulled the trigger on the allegedly offered Montero for Soria trade
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Oct 25, 2010 12:46 AM EDT up reply actions
Thats would have been a bad deal
They wouldnt have a place to put him. Cant play catcher with Myers, cant play 1st with Hosmer and Butler is better than Montero for DH
If you didn't know by now, my screen name is sarcastic
by mathisrocks5 on Oct 25, 2010 12:48 AM EDT up reply actions
thats when you turn and flip butler when hosmer is ready
montero is far better than anything anyone else will offer
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Oct 25, 2010 12:49 AM EDT up reply actions
You point is more then valid
but do you flip Butler, he might be a nice player to lock up.
"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."
by fourfingerwoo on Oct 25, 2010 12:54 AM EDT up reply actions
not a terrible idea....
but if thats the case, you can always flip montero. you’d be trading soria for whatever the return would be on montero….use him to get a CF/C/SS/more pitching…whatever. another montero type wont be offered for soria. only the yanks, who see they have no use for him, will ever offer that.
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Oct 25, 2010 1:00 AM EDT up reply actions
but the problem is
do you flip a minor league DH, for a top 10 closer that is locked up at a ridiculous discount for quite a few years
"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."
by fourfingerwoo on Oct 25, 2010 1:38 AM EDT up reply actions
without thinking twice about it
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Oct 25, 2010 1:39 AM EDT up reply actions
you might
and probably wouldn’t be wrong in doing it. But I just think the DH spot gives you more room to be creative that I would explore other options then to trade a top shut down reliever in his prime for an unproven DH commodity.
"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."
by fourfingerwoo on Oct 25, 2010 1:44 AM EDT up reply actions
my desire for creativity goes out the window
when i can have a 3-4-5 of Montero, Hosmer and Moustakas for the next 7 years
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Oct 25, 2010 1:46 AM EDT up reply actions
it does look good
I think his performance along with his control time would have me decline on acquiring a DH for him, even if he is one of the best DH’s in AAA.
"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."
by fourfingerwoo on Oct 25, 2010 2:28 AM EDT up reply actions
he's probably the best hitting prospect in baseball
not just a good AAA DH…you’re making him sound like hes kila
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Oct 25, 2010 2:31 AM EDT up reply actions
I think thats it, I don't think he's
Joakim Soria better then Kila although your probably right. And he wasn’t even the best hitting 21 year old prospect in the International league last year.
"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."
by fourfingerwoo on Oct 25, 2010 2:51 AM EDT up reply actions
soria's a 2 WAR player...
and its not gonna get any higher than that….its very likely that montero is better than that, and for 400k for 3 years
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Oct 25, 2010 2:56 AM EDT up reply actions
still not sure I'd totally
prescribe to WAR in determining a reliever’s value. But I still believe you offer a valid point on Montero. And your approach quite possibly could have been the best route for the Royals to take. But I myself believe it wasn’t a far fetched decision to keep Soria and look for the offensive production elsewhere.
"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."
by fourfingerwoo on Oct 25, 2010 3:16 AM EDT up reply actions
oh...its not a terrible thing...
and if moore thinks that the royals are legitimately going to be ready to compete by 2013 or 2014 then its a defensible position. I lean towards it being more 2015 or 2016 to be ready to win big. Soria’s contract is extremely team friendly and i dont see him doing that again. And, if in order to resign him, you’re going to have to pay market rate for a top closer, it definitely wont be worth it.
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Oct 25, 2010 3:26 AM EDT up reply actions
Interested to see
if in the latter stages of 2011 or 2012 they decide to move Soria, then the rumors of Montero/Soria become even more intriguing. Because if they do ever decide to move him, I doubt they can match an offer of Montero.
"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."
by fourfingerwoo on Oct 25, 2010 3:43 AM EDT up reply actions
nope...
the montero ‘offer’ was just the perfect storm of events. yanks set at 1b, yanks needing DH to rest Arod, Posada, Jeter, etc and it coming close to the end of rivera
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Oct 25, 2010 3:45 AM EDT up reply actions
it was the perfect storm
and “if” that was the offer it probably should have been excepted. And I believe that alone validates your point, that they will never get an offer like that again. But it’s just so hard to deal a closer like that “coming” into his prime for a player that won’t take the field
"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."
by fourfingerwoo on Oct 25, 2010 6:17 AM EDT up reply actions
back to Butler
I would be real skeptical about moving him, that kid has all the makings of one big arse hammer in the middle of a lineup that can shows the future ability of being able to set the table and protect him. Butler just looks like he has the makings of a generational hitter. Lets not forget he was in AAA at the age of 21 too{with a +.900 OPS and more walks then wiffs}. And is just now approaching his prime years. And has shown many indications that he is the “special” one in that organization. And he adds to my reluctancy of adding a s DH type in favor of my lights out closer.
"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."
by fourfingerwoo on Oct 25, 2010 6:33 AM EDT up reply actions
I would concur
Though I may have been tempted if I were the Royals with that offer, I’m shopping Soria for a point of organizational weakness, and shopping Greinke for the best package I can get. Yes, IF he pans out, you can move Montero for a hefty amount, but that’s an “if”. You have a definite in hand to use, and you should get the best you can for that definite rather than hoping for better return on the “if” you acquire.
I’m not sure what’s out there, but I could see a Bedard-esque package coming into KC for Greinke, and that won’t come from New York or Boston (or perhaps LA, depending on Greinke’s no-trade list).
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on Oct 25, 2010 7:48 AM EDT up reply actions
Best hitting prospect in baseball??
Yeah right. Not even close
If you didn't know by now, my screen name is sarcastic
by mathisrocks5 on Oct 25, 2010 3:44 AM EDT up reply actions
ok bud...
civilized debate going on here…take your trout shit elsewhere
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Oct 25, 2010 3:47 AM EDT up reply actions
Not saying Trout is the best
Just saying Montero is overrated. Trout, D Brown, Hosmer, Myers, Moose, Freeman, the list goes on and on of people better than him
If you didn't know by now, my screen name is sarcastic
by mathisrocks5 on Oct 25, 2010 3:49 AM EDT up reply actions
strictly hitting wise....
i’ll take montero over all of those guys except for Hosmer…and I’m a Royals fan
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Oct 25, 2010 3:51 AM EDT up reply actions
All those guys have better plate disipline and are better overall pure hitter
Montero has pretty good power, but those guys are not one dimensional like him
If you didn't know by now, my screen name is sarcastic
by mathisrocks5 on Oct 25, 2010 3:54 AM EDT up reply actions
Montero is one diminsional?
The guy is expected to hit plenty of homers with a great batting average. How is that one dimensional? He is a .314 career hitter who doesn’t K too much for a power hitter.
by King Billy Royal on Oct 25, 2010 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions
well, I guess if he hits for a high average with lots of power without defensive value
That would make him a two dimensional player, wouldn’t it? :)
his name isnt mike trout
so he cant be a great prospect
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Oct 25, 2010 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Defense
Possibly, but so was Manny Ramirez and that turned out okay. Besides, that wasn’t the question.
by King Billy Royal on Oct 25, 2010 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions
He has plenty of time to learn
hitters with power tend to learn how to walk and/or pitchers will learn to walk them.
by Daniel Berlyn on Oct 25, 2010 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Trout and Hosmer are the best pure hitters in the minors
If you didn't know by now, my screen name is sarcastic
by mathisrocks5 on Oct 25, 2010 3:55 AM EDT up reply actions
from the most recent ASK BA
I’ve been having a heated debate over who should be regarded as the best hitting prospect left in the minor leagues, with Indians catcher Carlos Santana (who has lost his rookie and prospect status) included in the discussion. My vote would go to Yankees catcher Jesus Montero, based on his scouting reports, track record and the way he dominated Triple-A pitching in the second half of the season. The only other players I could see in the discussion are Santana, Royals first baseman Eric Hosmer, Angels outfielder Mike Trout, Royals third baseman Mike Moustakas and Royals catcher Wil Myers, in that order. Who do you see as the best hitting prospect among players remaining in the minors and Santana?
Grant Tyler Short
Harrodsburg, Ky.
I’d take Montero, too, for the reasons that Grant suggests. I don’t have confidence he’s going to stay at catcher for the long term, but I fully believe in his bat. There isn’t a minor leaguer who can match his ability to hit for average and power. He started slowly this year but rebounded to hit .351 with 14 homers in 44 games in the second half—as a 20-year-old in Triple-A. A career .314/.371/.511 who always has been extremely young relative to his competition, Montero has strength, bat speed and the ability to barrel balls seemingly at will.
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Oct 25, 2010 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions
saltalamacchia
would block Montero from a catcher’s job
"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."
by fourfingerwoo on Oct 25, 2010 12:52 AM EDT up reply actions
lol
+1
If you didn't know by now, my screen name is sarcastic
by mathisrocks5 on Oct 25, 2010 12:57 AM EDT up reply actions
looks like a system
Cal Sr. would drive around in a bus from game to game
"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."
C+ is about right for me
Disastrous season. Little to no ability to locate his pitches.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
Hosmer vs Freeman
I’d like to see a prospect smackdown between these two. Hosmer put up better numbers, but at A+/AA where Freeman was at AAA. They are the exact same age. Freeman was significantly better in 2009. All that points to Freeman being better, yet Freeman got an A- and Hosmer a straight A.
Id choose Hosmer
I just like him a lot
If you didn't know by now, my screen name is sarcastic
by mathisrocks5 on Oct 25, 2010 1:02 AM EDT up reply actions
i would, too
and I’m a Braves fan.
by apoxonbothyourhouses on Oct 25, 2010 8:32 AM EDT up reply actions
+1
I think Hosmer is clearly the top 1B bat out there right now and he should be above average defensively. Sure it is 1B but he isn’t going to hurt you. I’d take Hosmer without much though over Freeman. Not that Freeman isn’t a good prospect, Hosmer just looks to be that good.
Yes, now that is a good point
Prospect smackdown between these two is a great idea.
If John thinks that Hosmer is a better long-term bet and/or has a higher ceiling, I can see a rationale for Hosmer getting a higher grade than Freeman. But would love to here his expanded thoughts on this.
Waiting for April.
Splitting hairs
Between the two, I think you’re deciding if you like a .290/30 guy or a .310/25 guy as far as projectable value as both are reported to be solid defenders. Very similar skills shown, but I do think Hosmer has the more projectable tools.
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on Oct 25, 2010 1:29 AM EDT up reply actions
What other tools?!
Both are below average runners, both have good defensive skills(although I think Freeman is a bit better) and both can really hit. Like the OP stated Freeman, only a couple months older than Hosmer, hit very well at AAA and got his feet wet in the ML already. I’m still not understanding why Hosmer is just that much better than Freeman after Hosmer came off such a poor season in 09.
Um...
I never said anything about “other” tools. Right now Freeman’s projectable ceiling with his tools is not at the same level as Hosmer’s, but he’s realized more of his own ceiling and translated the tools to skills, something Hosmer is a level behind on. My point was that they’re very close in value, not that one was better than another. I’m extremely happy to have Freeman on the Braves for the forseeable future.
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on Oct 25, 2010 7:41 AM EDT up reply actions
I've seen both guys play
And I’m just not buying that Hosmer has that much more projection than Freeman. Where was all this when Hosmer struggled last season?!
wrist injuries sap power....
and terrible vision just fucks with everything about hitting….surely, if you read this site, you know about these things
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Oct 25, 2010 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions
not being able to see the ball
saps power.
Healthy wrist + Lasick surgery = Hosmer living up to potential.
by apoxonbothyourhouses on Oct 25, 2010 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Wrist injuries sap power hmmm......
Funny when Freeman had his wrist injury that sapped his power folk were quick to throw the Casey Kotchman label on him lol! All I’lm saying is lets see if Hosmer can put up back to back good seasons before giving him such a high grade.
So because Hosmer was hurt in 2009, we can’t give him a high grade because he hasn’t had good consecutive years?
Interesting. Furthermore, Hosmer moves really well for a 1B. Not sure I’d label him a below average runner just yet.
If you have seen him run
You’d know he’s a below average runner.
Some weak arguments from Freeman enthusiasts
The age argument misses the point. Freeman was drafted in 2007, Hosmer in 2008. Both played high school baseball for four years. Freeman is one class ahead even if the age difference is just six weeks. Hosmer has exactly the same amount of professional and amateur experience entering 2010 and Freeman had entering 2009. And when you compare those years, Hosmer is clearly ahead:
(1) Playing in the worst hitters park in the Carolina league by far, Hosmer walked more than he struck out and had a slash line of .354/.429/.545. Playing in the same league in a neutral park Freeman struck out 58% more than he walked and had a slash line of .302/.394/.447 — none too shabby but significantly worse than Hosmer in a much more difficult park which just about did Moustakas in the year before.
(2) In AA Freeman struggles with just 2 HRs and a slash line of .248/.308/.342. Hosmer slugged 14 HRs in one-third of a season with a slash line of .313/.365/.615
(3) Hosmer was considered the best high school hitter in his draft; Freeman was a second-rounder.
Freeman has an excellent 2010 in AAA and is worthy of a high rating (A- seems about right to me). But Hosmer simply put up much better numbers at comparable points of their career and is more highly regarded by most scouts.
by Rotofan on Jan 10, 2011 4:18 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Few things
Freeman will always have an extra year of experience over Hosmer at the same age. Its not something that Hosmer is going to be able to make up. The fact that Hosmer has less experience than Freeman at the same age mitigates ARL some, but it doesn’t make it completely irrelevant.
Its pretty well documented at this point that Freeman’s AA struggles (and possibly some of the power outage in A+) were due to injury. You can’t hold it against him anymore than you can hold Hosmer’s 2009 struggles against him.
Finally, you’re purposefully only looking at the comparisons that favor Hosmer. There’s no guarantee that Hosmer will put up better AAA numbers (though he probably will) and you also didn’t mention Freeman’s great low-A performance during his age 18 season.
Couple of points
(1) It’s well documented Freeman’s wrist bothered him in AA but I haven’t seen the claim it bothered him earlier in the year in A+; perhaps I just missed that, and if you have a link that shows it, please provide it.
(2) Hosmer greatly out-did Freeman in A+, especially considering park differences.
(3) Whether the age difference has any meaningful predictive value given the difference in experience would be a matter of statistics and I’m not sure such analysis has been done. It it hasn’t than I suppose we both are relying on conjecture.
(3) Since there are no guarantees on what any player might do in the future, we’re limited at looking at the past. Hosmer was widely regarded a better prospect in high school and had a significantly better year in A+/AA, though the AA difference should be tempered by Freeman’s nagging wrist injury. The only year in which Freeman performed better was one in which Hosmer was dogged by a bad wrist and poor eyesight, problems since corrected, a point I didn’t belabor because we all know it.
(4) I didn’t mention Freeman’s strong 2008 OR weak 2007 because we know Hosmer performance in 2009 — which would be the comparison — didn’t in any way reflect his talent. If I was only looking for comparisons that favor Hosmer, I would have brought up Freeman’s 2007, because he was weak that year without injury (he was also exceptionally young so I don’t think it reflected his talent)
Beyond the scouting reports and plate discipline, what impressed me most about Hosmer was how he handed Wilmington, especially considering the pressure he surely felt after a dismal year in 2009. That he showed 30 hr power in AA didn’t hurt either. If the Royals play it smart, they should call up Hosmer the last month or two and groom him to start at first in 2012, with Butler sliding to DH.
Answers
(1) I have no idea whether it did or not. Injury information rarely comes out until after the fact with regards to minor league prospects. I wouldn’t be surprised if his wrist wasn’t full strength in A+ though.
(2) The parks actually play very similar overall for LHH. Yeah, Wilmington plays tougher for HR, but Myrtle Beach still isn’t HR friendly and plays worse in most other categories. Wilmington plays at a 95 in terms of wOBA for LHH, while Myrtle Beach plays at a 96. No one is claiming Freeman’s A+ performance was better than Hosmer’s. Freeman isn’t the same prospect he was in 2009.
(3) Obviously its conjecture, but I think people doing the projection systems would only use experience and exclude age if age didn’t really mean anything. I think its exceedingly likely that both play a significant role.
(4) Maybe I was wrong with what you were doing. At the very least, you’re choosing to compare 2009 Freeman to 2010 Hosmer, which just seems strange to me. Freeman isn’t considered a great prospect because of what he did in 2009. He’s considered a great prospect because of the great season he had in 2010 in AAA at age 20. That seems strange to me. I care less about you not comparing their low-A performances, which obviously favors Freeman. Its just that combining the fact that you don’t give Freeman any credit for 2010, you disregard Freeman’s low-A advantage, and you also don’t include Hosmer’s 2009 Carolina league performance, it seems like you started with an opinion and are simply focusing on the numbers that back up that opinion, while disregarding any that don’t.
Also, what Freeman did in the GCL coming straight out of high school couldn’t have an less relevance in this discussion. His performance there isn’t close to as bad as you make it out to be either. He posted a good K rate and the ISO is actually good once you factor in the league (2nd most pitcher friendly in the minors) and the fact that he was making the transition to wood right after finishing the minor league season. The fact that he didn’t completely crap himself out there was a very good thing, not something you hold against him.
Again I don't disagree with your conclusion
I simply think you’re focusing on the wrong things in the argument you’re making. 2009 Freeman v. 2010 Hosmer isn’t a debate anyone cares about.
The idea of comparing how players performed at the same minor league level
is hardly a radical or novel approach — its commonplace.
As for cherry-picking years, you discount Freeman’s first year swinging a wooden bat but want to place emphasis on Hosmer’ 2009, which he entered with a whopping 15 plate appearances with a wooden bat after a cameo in 2008, never mind the bad wrist and eyesight. I thought it fair to discount both as I did in my initial analysis.
As for Freeman’s performance in the GCL, his ISO was .112, which is pretty poor for a first basemen. If you have park factors for Danville, please share them and show how you calculate an adjustment. It’s true he struck out 14.7%, which is good for a power hitter —- though not one who showed little power — but he only walked 3%. His wRC+ (adjusted for the league) was 88.
As for Freeman’s 2010, his wRC+ was 140 and he had similar marks in A and A+ ball, which certainly makes him a strong prospect.
But compare that to Hosmer, who in 2010 has a wRC+ in A+ of 171 and a wRC+ in AA of 166. That’s a level of performance that Freeman has never achieved. I’m not sure on what basis you would ignore that and focus only on scouting reports and BB/K ratios to deem Hosmer a superior prospect.
You raise some good points about Freeman, some of which should be considered, such as the effect of his wrist injury on his AA play. While I don’t agree with some of your critique of my argument or some aspects of your own, we take divergent paths to reach the same end point, which says something about Hosmer.
No one is saying you can't compare performance
Its a good argument that 2010 Hosmer is better than 2009 Freeman. However, its not a good argument that 2010 Hosmer is better than 2010 Freeman because 2010 Freeman was a whole lot better than 2009 Freeman.
An above league average ISO for a 17 year old coming straight out of high school isn’t poor in anyway. There is nothing about Freeman’s performance that year that anyone should have held against him. You can’t compare it to what Hosmer did in 2009 because Hosmer had an entire offseason, along with an entire spring training to adjust to a wood bat. Freeman got drafted and immediately had to make the transition. If you don’t see the difference there, I don’t know what to tell you.
That's not to say that Hosmer isn't a superior prospect
I’d just base the argument on BB/K ratio and scouting reports, not the other things.
Really strong farm system...
I think Dwyer is going to break out next year.
Agreed with the assessment on Eibner and Will Smith especially…I’m leaning towards “no” on Eibner as a CF, but who knows right now…
Dwyer basically broke out this year
back injury just ended it prematurely. i don’t think he’d be taking a backseat to the other 3 LHP’s if he’d been healthy in August. and for me he’s not anyways, seeing as i put him #6 in the system ahead of Duffy.
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
http://twitter.com/doublestix
and FWIW
Law said plus defense for Eibner in CF.
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
http://twitter.com/doublestix
pretty amazing kinda surprised with the A- for Duffy though
thought he’d be in the B+ range…
John, does this mean you like Duffy more than Kyle Gibson ? if so how much…
I called it - Joe Mauer's first career Home-Run at Target Field !!!
Why Oh Why did the D'Backs select A.J. Pollock over Mike Trout?
I hate Hunter Wendelstedt, you hate Hunter Wendelstedt we all hate hunter w
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Oct 25, 2010 1:33 AM EDT reply actions
duffy
Dunno. The grades can still change. Depends on how I think when I do the top 50 when the book is done.
by John Sickels on Oct 25, 2010 9:55 AM EDT up reply actions
Agree on Duffy
He’s had a nice rise this year, but I’d personally rank him 4th out of the 4 top LHP in KC’s system.
2nd
I’d definitely have Lamb ahead of him, though I’d have Duffy ahead of Montgomery who’s elbow issues are a very serious red flag to me, and keep him below the healthy guys.
Now writing for BaseballInstinct.com
by Franchise887 on Oct 25, 2010 7:37 PM EDT up reply actions
didnt duffy have arm problems in spring training and april?
why are his ignored while monty’s seemingly similar ailments are grounds for dropping him?
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Oct 25, 2010 7:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Hard to tell...
Duffy officially had a strained elbow, but it clearly wasn’t an issue when he actually pitched, whereas Montgomery’s issues plagued him all year (and his numbers when he came back late in the year were…disappointing). I guess Duffy gets a bit of a pass because he was healthy in the season itself. If his injuries re-emerge as an issue, he’d get dropped.
Now writing for BaseballInstinct.com
by Franchise887 on Oct 25, 2010 9:19 PM EDT up reply actions
duffy took two months off
and then and pitched against 18 year olds…montgomery’s stuff is back to where it was….a couple months later. they seem like pretty identical situations to me
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Oct 25, 2010 9:27 PM EDT up reply actions
first fragment doesnt really make sense....
since he was pitching in extended spring training and then low a or whatever..we dont really know if he was back to his usual self immediately or not. it kinda seems like bonus points are being given to duffy for not knowing if he liked baseball or not
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Oct 25, 2010 9:30 PM EDT up reply actions
John's is the exact order of my top 3
Not that the difference between them is much.
I love this farm system.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
Love the Royals system!
They have a very, very nice mixture of bats and arms.
It’s a good system, if only they had a solid major league core to fit these guys into. I hope for the Royals that Dayton Moore can actually make sensible FA signings once they get the top 7 into the majors, otherwise it would be a waste.
Still, it’s not that unlikely that 2 of the 4 left handers are too troubled by injuries, one flames out and only one becomes a good major league starter.
I wish that
.. the Royals had the foresight to lock up a couple of coveted FA’s in the last couple of years while the market was down and the teams held all the chips. Even if only to flip them in this off season.
"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."
by fourfingerwoo on Oct 25, 2010 6:21 AM EDT up reply actions
Trading Greinke should help in that area
There’s also Butler and Soria, and Gordon if you’re still a believer.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
would a
Butler for Scheppers and a SS prospect work?
by apoxonbothyourhouses on Oct 25, 2010 8:33 AM EDT up reply actions
is that shortstop profar?
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Oct 25, 2010 8:38 AM EDT up reply actions
does that change for you if the SS is profar?
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Oct 25, 2010 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions
maybe if we get something other than Scheppers, a reliever
because even though Profar is a damn good prospect, i’m not comfortable trading away a young and damn good hitter for a guy that won’t make an impact for 3-4 years, minimum. and that’s an if, not when, because a lot of things can go wrong (or right, i suppose) in that time.
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
http://twitter.com/doublestix
ok
and dont take this as me wanting to trade butler….i want him locked up this winter
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Oct 25, 2010 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions
I think they should wait until the deadline
and see how their big pieces and top prospects do before deciding how to proceed. They should leave themselves multiple options.
by Daniel Berlyn on Oct 25, 2010 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions
ive wanted him gone for awhile
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Oct 25, 2010 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Seriously???
He’s a pretty damn good player. If you don’t want him I’ll take him.
Bullpen Banter
www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor
he's a pretty good player on a great contract
who wont be around when the royals compete. 2009 trading deadline wouldve been a good time in my mind. It looked like they were going to trade him this year until he got hurt.
Oh, and he has a tendency to do things on the field that piss me the fuck off namely, getting picked off/caught stealing when he has no business attempting to steal a base…ever and just being generally atrocious at the wall. oh and the whole missing a month with fucking hives pissed me off. These are all fairly minor things, but I just havent liked him from the beginning…probably b/c hes not beltran.
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Oct 25, 2010 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions
If DDJ is going to profile as a Type A
I’d have to be blown away to trade him.
We need to get some talent in the lower minors.
We can amass some more serious talent with 3 Top 50 picks in 2012, even if we take a couple guys who aren’t over-slot types.
We actually have some good talent in the low minors.
Our Midwest team was the one that wasn’t very good…. But AZL and Burlington had a few guys.
I went to far when I said not above slot type guys, but I’m committed to us building through the draft.
We have some young guys, but I think we need to have another big spending draft. We didn’t get anyone all that exciting past the 5th round this year (and I don’t think Antonio was worth the 3rd round pick either).
I see some talent in the lower minors, but we need a lot more if we want to be competitive. I am in this for the long haul and I’d rather sign two guys like Montgomery, Eibner, Wil Myers, Jason Adam, or Melville.
Like I said, we should be open to trading DDJ, but I’d need to be blown away because we could set the table again in the low minors with some high-upside arms or bats.
Billy Butler is primed to be one of the best offensive players in the league
That’s a very valuable thing to have, especially for the Royals. When they get one other hitter in the lineup he’ll be a monster.
by Daniel Berlyn on Oct 25, 2010 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions
We need to keep Billy for at least until the end of his arbitration.
He can be a protection RH bat in the lineup of Hosmer, Moustakas, and Myers, assuming they all peak.
I’m thinking 2014 is the year. It’s not often a group steps in and is immediately successful.
It really depends on a lot
People were saying Devil Rays for 2010, there was an SI cover with Delmon Young and Elijah Dukes on the cover. Well, the team changed their name, traded both of those players and became dominant the next year. Or it could never happen. We just don’t know yet.
by Daniel Berlyn on Oct 25, 2010 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Trading Greinke would be terrible for the Royals
Yes it’s better than just seeing him walk after 2012, but the ideal situation is for KC to extend him and transition the pitching prospects around him. It’s never a good scenario to see an ace pitcher leave your team.
If Dayton learned anything....
From John Schuerholz, the Royals are doomed.
From Bobby Cox, the AL Central could be looking at a new measuring stick.
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on Oct 25, 2010 7:42 AM EDT up reply actions
have you read his book?
I bought it at a Big Lots for 50 cents. Schuerholz comes across as a respectable and well-meaning businessman, but he really doesn’t show much regard for anybody else’s point of view and he seemed just seemed to be speaking from a different era of the game. #minibookreview #twittereverywhere
If not for Cox nixing some major stuff
The Braves never would have been anything in the 90s. He built the team that started winning, then handed over GM duties to Schuerholz when he moved to the manager’s role. The Royals at the time were ecstatic to get rid of Schuerholz. They’ve never recovered from the hole he put that franchise in. The Braves were lucky to have a forced emphasis on their minor league system from the Cox era that he refused to let them divert from so they could bounce back after Schuerholz tried to do the same thing to the Braves. Cox should write a book on all the crap deals he nixed by Schuerholz because from all reports, there were plenty, especially in free agency.
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on Oct 25, 2010 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions
I now inform you that you are too far from reality
by mrkupe on Oct 25, 2010 8:03 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
you're just lucky I didn't use Photoshop
Of course, there’s four Royals and only three of them . . .
Anybody opposed to John Lamb having the body of the Great Gazoo?
Mark Mulder
Though Hudson was never actually that lauded a prospect. 6th round draft pick, never made BA’s top 100.
+1
…on the last paragraph. The attrition rate of pitchers is so high, there is an extremely small chance all 4 of those LHPs are even league average SPs at the end. We are already seeing some serious red flags with Montgomery’s arm unfortunately. Of course John or any other analyst would have a hard time picking which would fail at this stage of their careers but it just bothers me when everyone assumes they will pan out. I’m a Braves fans since ‘89 and I’ve seen several cores of arms that looked like they were all going to be ready at the same time but it rarely happens. Even the core the Braves have together right now will probably have a 50% success rate or lower. That is just the way it goes with pitchers unfortunately.
Royals are Royals
Based on their GM’s performance, even with an apparent slew of good, young players on the rise, I think it’s at least even money the Royals still aren’t a .500 team 4 years from now. We’ll see how this group of Alex Gordons the next generation do. The odds say half of these upper ranked guys might end up being good players. And even if Moustakas, Hosmer and Myers all do turn out to be all-star caliber hitters, for financial reasons the Royals will be divesting themselves of other costly assets or will have already done so.
John, have you ever thought of posting previous grades alongside the most recent?
I’m interested to see how Moose’s grade, for example, has risen, and I’m wondering if there’s any predictive value in the grade trend.
Godspeed Mike Olt.
i like this idea....
and it’d be much easier for john to do this than for us to go search for all of the previous grades
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Oct 25, 2010 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions
Danny Duffy
is really impressive. I’m happy that he’s getting some recognition finally. I remember I went to Wilmington to watch a doubleheader between Mike Moustakas and Pedro Alvarez, and Duffy pitched the second game. Threw a complete game shutout and just dominated the entire Lynchburg team, including Alvarez. He’s got really dirty stuff and an unbelievable command of his pitches. I went home and looked him up and was surprised at how little recognition he had among prospect analysts. Happy to see that he’s getting high grades with you, John.
P.S. He’s a really nice guy too. Stayed after the game for almost a half hour to sign autographs for everybody waiting.
he's always reminded me of the gobble type until this year....
the reports of the velocity increase this year has gotten me to jump on the bandwagon
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Oct 25, 2010 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, exact same thing for me, including the Gobble comp
I’d wanted to see more of him before buying, and then completely wrote him off with the sabbatical; now I he might be my number 1 pitcher (back and forth on him and Lamb) in that loaded system. That said, I’m looking forward to seeing more reports this offseason on exactly where his stuff stood. Just one view based on a small sample, but Law’s report of no plus pitches the other day raised an eyebrow.
Duffy is a nice guy
he’ll stay and talk to you and sign whatever you want. I’ve seen him talking to people at games that he didn’t know.
Its funny
Duffy came out of California HS with the reputation of a somewhat higher ceiling, live arm LHP. Then a year and half later he was getting great results but people portrayed him as pitching beyond his stuff… as if his ceiling was a #3 kind of guy. Came back this year and dominated with nasty stuff, improved velo, great control & command.
John’s right… not too many pitchers I’m taking before this kid.
Bullpen Banter
www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor
oddly enough
I remember being very hesitant on him because people were really talking him up out of his ridiculous rookie ball numbers. Then after he got into full season ball the buzz died down, and suddenly, I was like wow, I’m really liking what I’m seeing here. He’s a good example of all the things I like in a prep pitcher, and specifically a prep lefty.
Of course, the other night, I believe Keith Law scouted Duffy as average fastball, average change, below average curve . . .does somebody have that info on hand?
You could remove their top 5 prospects and still have a decent farm system.
It would definitely be bottom third, but I could think of a few teams with a worse system than the Royals minus their top 5.
by Kenneth Arthur on Oct 25, 2010 12:15 PM EDT reply actions
Follow-up Question for John
I had a comment ready to go about the omission of Duffy from John’s Top 100 Prospects list published on Rotowire on 10/10/2010. Then, I did a little fact-checking and found John’s prospect chat on Rotowire from 10/16/2010 — according to John, Duffy’s omission on the Rotowire list was an oversight. John thinks that Duffy would fall in the 30-35 range.
So, follow-up question: Duffy (A-) ranks higher here than Lamb (B+), Montgomery (B+), and Dwyer (B) but lower (30-35) than Lamb (18) and Montgomery (19) on the Rotowire list. I’m just curious about this dispartity – I’d like to see behind the curtain here. Duffy, Lamb, and Montgomery are all at comparable points in their development since all three have reached AA and made less than ten starts there, allowing for a more direct comparison than is usually possible on lists like this.
Before people start chiming in, I’m aware of most of the reasons for disparities between the two sources, such as:
(1) the difference between roto and actual baseball,
(2) the fact that John has had more time to think about this and may have changed his opinions a bit,
(3) the fact that Duffy is a little older (turns 22 in December) than Lamb (20) and Montgomery (21),
(4) on-the-spot miscalculation during the prospect chat by John about Duffy’s range, and
(5) John’s distaste for big swings from list to list on Rotowire.
I’d still be interested in other input, though, since I’m sure that’s there’s a lot of relevant factors that I haven’t considered. I’m also dim enough that I almost asked a question that had already been answered elsewhere, so keep that in mind.
I think (2) is the most likely explanation for the disparity. I’m a big fan of John’s work and his rankings, and I’d just like to get inside the thought process here a little.
For anyone who noticed Duffy’s omission on his Rotowire list but didn’t see John’s follow-up answer from the 10/16 prospect chat, here is my original post, drafted before I found John’s comment on Duffy’s omission:
On this list, Duffy gets an A- grade and is ranked #4, behind Moustakas, Hosmer, and Myers but ahead of Lamb (B+), Montgomery (B+), and Dwyer (B). On the 10/10/2010 Sickels Top 100 prospect list on Rotowire, Duffy doesn’t appear at all.
I know that the Rotowire list is for roto purposes while this list is for actual, non-fantasy baseball. I also know that on Rotowire, John tries to avoid big swings from list to list, and that he had to incorporate 2010 draftees into your most recent list. Still, it seems like Duffy may have inadvertently been omitted from the Rotowire Top 100, since Lamb (18) and Montgomery (19) both made the top 20 and Dwyer (42) made the top 50.
Was this an oversight? If not, what was the thinking?
duffy
My opinions change over time is the main thing. No list is ever static for me…there so many variables to consider.
by John Sickels on Oct 25, 2010 9:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks for the clarification
Thanks for the reply, John. I appreciate it.
I live in Philadelphia, not too far from Wilmington, and I’m kicking myself for not getting down to Wilmington to see Duffy, Lamb, Montgomery, and Hosmer before they moved up to AA. In my defense, though, I didn’t think that all 4 would be in AA by July.
Man, I love this farm system. I might have to adopt the Royals as my AL team.
by garry maddox on Oct 26, 2010 7:36 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
We need all the support we can get.
Join our tiny bandwagon. There are seats open all over the place.
I made a trip to Phili this summer and happened to catch a Wilmington game. It was a good little ball park. You’ll have a few more guys there this next year to check out, but not anything like last year. I missed Moustakas at AA though, so dont’ feel too bad.
John
Does moving Colon to 2B (hasn’t happened yet, but it might) change his grade at all? Would he have a higher grade as a 2B?
Can't wait to add a top 5 pick this year and possibly the #1 overall pick next year to this farm system.
Also can’t wait till young guys like Adam,Cuthbert,Simmons,Yambati, and ventura devolp.
Weird seeing Robinson at 20. He mashed but people aren’t projecting him very well.
I wish we would trade Soria for Montero…i mean we have so much bullpen talent with Jefferes,Coleman,Collins,Keating, Champman,Hardy, even Osuna.
Would Montero be our #1 prospect? Plus that would give us 4 A hitters? That would be sick.
ick
I can buy being excited about the pick next year . . .but talking up the possibility of being so bad in 2011 that the Royals will get the top pick in 2012?
I guess the Royals don’t think Montero slots in that well into the organizational depth charts, which I suppose is understandable. Hosmer would play 1B and Butler would be at DH, and the Royals can get another few useful years out of Butler before they’d have to consider trading him for financial reasons.
Our team is looking pretty rough this year.
especially our pitching staff…i mean Luke Hochevar is our Ace.
Honestly i don’t think Montero is being offered……I would be hard pressed to believe that they would pass on arguably the best hitting prospect in the minors who is already in AAA at such a young age. He would make our line up scary good even if he or someone else has to be average or slightly below average on defense.
I completely believe he's being offered
The Yankees can’t find a quality starter to add to their staff. So if they can’t find somebody to give them 200 good innings, 80 superb innings from Soria would be the next best available option. He’ll help to secure the games that are relatively close, and they won’t have to worry about finding somebody to replace Rivera in a couple of years.
Well then i just can't see the reason to not pull the trigger.
Unless we maybe think of moving Soria to starting.
Also what is the questions about Montero's defense?
Seems from what people say he looks like a complete fool back there? can he not even make it through a game? Can he not throw out runners? Block balls in the dirt? Can he not even throw the ball back to the pitcher? How bad is he really?
To get an impact middle of the line up bat for a closer who doesn’t even pitch 100 innings a year, not to mention they would probably throw in another guy seems crazy to me.
Not to mention not all prospects pan out so Moose and Hosmer aren’t sure things.
Lets say things we trade for Montero and defensively he is serviceable at catcher or somehow he moves to the outfield or Hosmer does and he goes to first base. Either way be finds a spot.
Picture this line up.
CF-Lorenzo Cain
2B-Christian Colon
1B-Eric Hosmer
C-Jesus Montero
3B-Mike Moustakas
DH-Billy Butler
RF-Wil Myers
LF-Alex Gordon/Brett Eibner
SS-Alcides Escobar
montero's defense
He can make it through a game, obviously. Montero’s arm strength is fine but throwing mechanics need considerable work. Mobility and footwork behind the plate both well below-average. Slow runner, would likely be a major liability in the outfield as well.
The most reasonable scenario, as you alluded to, would be moving Hosmer to the outfield and using Montero at first base. But you’d be taking Hosmer’s solid-to-plus glove at first base and sticking it in left field (Wil Myers likely at RF), and replacing Hosmer at first with Montero (who might get to average but lack of agility would be a concern there as well). I don’t see how the Royals really get all that much better in the end – I’d rather keep Hosmer at first and find a solid bat with premium defensive value to play left field in this case, especially because you’d still have Soria. Of course, you could always trade Soria in a package that would net such a player and more. I don’t think Nunez from the Yankees is really doing that much for the Royals.
I agree, i love Soria but..
We have so much relief talent coming up. The idea just sounds good i guess. I would honestly rather keep Hosmer at first and keep Billy Butler which therefore would make no room for Montero. I guess if we feel there is no way he can stay behind the plate then that is why we wouldn’t do it, i guess offensively it looks pretty sweet.
Guess i will have to be happy in a few years when Soria is closing out the world series haha.
Our top 3 hitters get a lot of the attention but i love our Pitching depth, Bullpen depth is great, even after our top 5 starting pitching prospects we still have Crow,Melville,Sample,Adam,Yambati,Ventura,Bauman,Smith,Simmons, Argulles.
I am really hoping Teaford gets a starting shot. Maybe it is finally clicking for him. He is old enough where there is no point in waiting. Heard a lot of good things about him this past year.
Moust
Nice to see him getting the love he deserves. He does get love in the respect of Top 5 in the system but it appears so many people can’t just give the guy the love he deserves. What else could he do…he absolutely dominated. Good job on putting him at the top John!
Hosmer over Moustakas
Putting defense aside, I have to rank Hosmer ahead of Moustakas as a hitter. While the latter may have a bit more power, the former has much better plate discipline; their respective performances at Wilimington are instructive – Moose struggled while Hosmer raked.
As for defense, I’m less convinced Moustakas sticks at 3rd, and even if he does, he may very well be below average defensively. Hosmer was just named the Royals top defender in their system. While it’s only first base, I think the metrics may underestimate the value of a good defensive first baseman.
All that said, the clincher for me is this: With Mousatakas’ defensive position and value is up in the air, the most certain thing to me about the two is Hosmer is a better hitter.
moustakas vs hosmer
I’d say Moustakas has more than “a bit more power” than Hosmer. Hosmer has good raw potential, but Moustakas has just unbelievable power. His combination of swing loft and otherworldly bat speed is really unique. Hosmer does have a more patient approach, but a full year against AAA caliber pitching should get Moustakas to the point where his selectivity isn’t a liability for him in the future.
I really don’t get the criticisms of Moustakas on defense. Yes, he has a very stocky build. Yes, he’ll probably have to watch his conditioning, although saying that a pro athlete should watch his conditioning is like telling somebody to not forget to breathe. But nothing in the video says that he can’t play 3B. He has good hands, impressive instincts and a cannon of an arm. I think he’s significantly more likely to play an above average 3B than a below average 3B.
Consider Hosmer's AA performance
Hosmer hit 13 homers in 50 games. If that is his true level of performance, that projects to more than 40 homers in a season, and while I agree Moustakas has considerable power, it’s not likely to be much more than 40.
It’s true Hosmer’s AA performance is a small sample and perhaps over-states his power potential. But when I think of players with raw power potential, I think of players with strong builds and bat speed who haven’t shown considerable power yet. Hosmer has.
As for potential, I tend to believe that power hitters with great plate discipline are more likely than those with poor or mediocre discipline to realize their full power potential. Moustakas isn’t in the God-awful range of plate discipline but he’s certainly, at best., mediocre at that skill.
Here’s a blurb from someone at Royalsauthority.com who has seen both play:
“I was higher on Moustakas until I got a look at Hosmer at the futures game. His body type and plate discipline are what really impressed me. I believe he can grow into even more power and should be able to be a very good defensive first baseman. If you forced me to pick, I’d take Hosmer over Moustakas for my team.”
As for defense, Hosmer is already a very good fielder; I appreciate you see qualities in Moustakas that could make him above average at third — I’m just less convinced.
Either way, for the Royals’ sake, I hope both realize their potential.
the guy saw him play at the Futures game?
I think everybody saw Hosmer play at the Futures game. It was televised.
I don’t have access to split stats these days, but I think Hosmer had some pretty crazy split stats at NW Arkansas, as did almost everybody who played there this season. That includes Moustakas of course, but Moustakas had the better power projection previously, and Moustakas carried it forward by crushing the ball in Omaha as well.
I don’t think Hosmer is going to be a bad power hitter by any means, but I do tend to see him more as a Justin Morneau type who gets his home runs more as a byproduct of being a pure hitter with a powerful frame than a true slugger.
Moustakas had the better power projection previously
I seem to recall Hosmer being considered the best power hitter (and best all-around hitting prospect) in his h.s. class by many. I’m not sure he’s all that far behind Mous, at least not in terms of reputation and scouting reports. Most of the video circulating on him back then was ridiculous home run clips. lol
by blackoutyears on Jan 12, 2011 4:39 PM EST up reply actions
you mean he hit home runs in high school?
Yeah, I’d hope he could do that in high school.
Moustakas had/has more bat speed and more loft in his swing. You are right in saying that they’re not all that far apart in terms of power projection, but there is a difference. I see Hosmer as a 6 grade for power and Moustakas as a 7, maybe even that very rare 8. Hosmer should hit for a better average though and has a more refined approach (not to knock Moustakas for hitting the ball all over the place), so the raw power numbers might look similar.
Split stats and what Moustakas said about them
Some blamed Moustakas’ 2009 struggles on playing half his games at pitcher-friendly Frawley Stadium in Wilmington, where he hit only .205 with a .266 on-base percentage and slugged .373. But Moustakas isn’t buying it.
"It wasn’t easy," he said. "But there’s no excuses — I’ll never make an excuse for anything. Look at (Eric) Hosmer’s numbers and what he did down there this year. He had an incredible year and proved that you can hit in that ballpark."
Hosmer, who ranks alongside Moustakas as top Royals hitting prospects, hit .358 at home for Wilmington with a .453 on-base percentage and .536 slugging percentage before filling the opening created by Moustakas’ departure in Class AA.
*Omaha World Herald
-—————-
The Royals play in park, that like Frawley Stadium, is tough to hit a home run, ranking near the bottom most years. I suspect that will pose a bigger challenge to Moustakas than it will to Hosmer.
As for bat speed, Moustakas needs a quicker bat because he has a longer swing and has more ground to cover to get his bat through the zone. Hosmer’s swing is more compact, and while his swing has less loft, his frame is much bigger.
One other consideration; you acknowledge Moustakas needs to improve his selectivity to reach his potential. Hosmer, on the other hand, doesn’t really need to improve anything – just maintain what he did in 2010. Hosmer has the higher floor. I think he has a higher ceiling too, but I know you differ in that view, and only time will tell who’s view is right.
I'm not getting it
I know what Moustakas said about it, but most players don’t tend to blame their environment for playing poorly just as they wouldn’t credit the environment for strong performance. It doesn’t mean that there can’t be truth in either of those, and based on the the noted difficulty of the environment in Wilmington, I’d say it most likely DID play a role. I don’t think Moustakas was a really.205/.266/.373 caliber player . . .do you?
Yes, Moustakas benefits from his bat speed compensating for the length of his swing, although his swing isn’t long. Swing length actually contributes to power though (physics: more momentum = more energy transferred to the ball), as does bat speed. Hosmer’s size in of itself doesn’t make a difference, as there are plenty of players with big frames who don’t hit for exceptional power – look at all the talk about the 6’5" Freddie Freeman, for instance. It’s all about how hard you hit the ball and the loft you get on the ball, and Moustakas does better at both of those than Hosmer.
I don’t think there’s much doubt that Moustakas has higher potential – he’s hitting this well without a refined approach that the plate, and he’s doing this off of sheer physical ability. Hosmer has the more polished approach, which is something that he benefits from, but it also means that the gap between what he is and what he can be is lower. Hosmer probably has a slightly higher floor, but it can be argued either way – Moustakas has more experience and experience at the highest level before the majors, Moustakas plays 3B to Hosmer’s 1B (I think each will be roughly equivalent in quality at their positions), Hosmer has a more major league ready approach. But in terms of sheer potential, you have to go with Moustakas’ otherworldly power and bat speed. If he had the approach down (which is something still in the air, as he’s very young and this year, he was probably better off just swinging and crushing the ball at will), he’d be the best prospect in the game. Nothing you’ve said is very compelling in Hosmer’s favor at all.
Let me try to help
I have never suggested Moustakas was not a great prospect or that his struggles in Wilimington reflected the true level of his talent. What I have said is this:
(1) The fact that Hosmer raked in a park as tough as Wilmington is remarkable and puts him in the top echelon of hitting prospects.
(2) The Royals play in a park that greatly suppresses home runs and Hosmer has shown himself able to thrive in a park like that (Frawley) while Moustakas was brutal in that environment. What does that say about their respective abilities to adjust?
About physics: The length of one’s swing has NOTHING to do with the force transferred to the ball. The equation for force is mass times acceleration. Moustakas generates power because of the way his bat accelerated through the zone, not the length of his swing. There are other variables too that affect how force is transferred.
You write about bat speed as if it’s the holy grail. But the most consistent slugger of our time, Albert Pujols, does not have elite bat speed, and relies instead on a compact swing and hand-eye coordination to keep his bat in the ideal hitting zone for the longest time possible. Here’s a link to a study of his swing: http://news.wustl.edu/news/Pages/7535.aspx
Pujols also has a fairly level swing. He’s also the best hitter of his generation so I’m not suggesting Hosmer will attain that level — the odds are against it. But my point is that players with modest bat speed and a level swing can generate tremendous power if they bring other elements to the table. Hosmer certainly showed that ability in 2010.
I may be by myself on this but..
I think Mike Montgomery is still the #1 prospect in the system. He has done nothing but dominate at every level, I understand he had an injury last year. I believe that was his first one? correct me if im wrong? If that doesn’t stick with him then i think he is ace material. I like his smooth deliverer, his arsenal of pitches, his poise and maturity since he has been young for every level. I know people value hitters over pitchers but i think Monty’s ceiling is extremely high and if healthy is a safer bet to reach that than anyone else.
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