Rookie Class of 2010-Best Prospect for future performance #3
by Dalman on Oct 24, 2010 5:24 AM EDT
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PrintAlthough he got a bit lower percentage of the vote at #2 than Heyward did at #1, nobody else was close to Posey and his 43% in the voting for the #2 spot. Comparing Posey and Wieters, who came in first last year, we overlooked some definite flaws in Wieters rookie performance to place him that high, figuring it was growing pains and not expecting the regression with the bat we saw this year. Posey came out nearly as highly touted but we haven't had to overlook anything to put him into this spot as he hit very well from the moment he arrived.
1. Jason Heyward, outfielder Atlanta Braves
2. Buster Posey, catcher, San Francisco Giants.
We're still not at the point where it makes sense to enforce a 5% cutoff to get dropped, but I will temporarily drop the four guys who got just 1% of the vote, although not for long as I could easily see some of them getting significant support as soon as round 5. I'll also hold off for a round recycling the players who we dropped from round 1
temporarily dropped players: Austin Jackson 0% (1), Jhoulys Chacin 0% (1), Neftali Feliz 1% (2), Brian Matusz 1% (2), Daniel Hudson 1% (2), Ike Davis 1% (2)
Per requests I'll test Jaime Garcia, Jonathon Niese, and Justin Smoak this round. I'll be sure to try Mike Leake next round, and add a couple more by recycling. Of course there are a number of other interesting 2010 rookies out there, but I think they are probably enough behind this group to limit the brand new additions to 1 or at most 2 a round for a while. As always, suggest away, but try to limit it for right now to players who you could see yourself voting for in the next few rounds over all the players already in the mix.
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Went Castro
I can absolutely see a solid argument for Strasburg, Santana, Stanton, or Bum. I’m just more comfortable with the questions surrounding Castro than I am the other four at the moment. Next choice will be a tough choice for me as I really have Bum, Stras, and Santana very, very close.
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
I went Strasburg
Gave him the slight edge over Santana
Buster Posey>
"I thought he was going to punch me and I was totally accepting of it. I was planning a reason to thank him if he did." Brian Wilson on Buster Posey
by Gobroks on Oct 24, 2010 7:26 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
Bumgarner
I chose him because his stuff really became electric towards the end of the year. At this point you don’t konw when Stras is going to be healthy but Madison really impressed me in the postseason and September.
Garcia
IMO Jaime Garcia had the best rookie season of anyone in 2010. In a rotation with Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter, Garcia pitched like one of the top pitchers in baseball. Yes, he missed the last month of the season, but Posey didn’t exactly have a complete season. I see why Heyward and Posey are the favorites, Posey being a rare slugging catcher, Heyward’s incredible OBP, but Garcia was near unbeatable almost all season long. For me, Garcia is ROY, though I know it probably won’t go down that way.
As far as future performance, I have to lean Heyward.
At Heyward’s age, he could have 20 productive years. He has excellent plate discipline, so even if his power never improves from 2010, he will still be very valuable.
Posey is very likely the second most valuable catcher in baseball, but he is a catcher, while he may have a wonderful prime, there’s a decent chance he either moves to first base or sees a decline at the plate by his 30s because of wear and tear.
Strasburg is great, and many pitchers have come back from Tommy John, but he’s definitely got that question mark right now. Kind of like Posey being a catcher, Strasburg being a pitcher means you can’t really count on him.
In what St. Louis Cardinals manager Tony La Russa called a "big day" for his club, starter Chris Carpenter took the mound for his first session of live batting practice and promptly buzzed the fuzz on catcher Jason LaRue’s chin with an errant fastball.
"Sorry," Carpenter called from the mound.
"Don’t say you’re sorry," LaRue barked back.
"He said it," pitching coach Dave Duncan said from the side of the cage, "but he didn’t mean it."
~ DG
But
This isn’t a ROY voting process. If you read the poll, it says “future performance”. Garcia had a nice season, but ranks lower based on future performance.
Addressed...
In the second half of my post.
In what St. Louis Cardinals manager Tony La Russa called a "big day" for his club, starter Chris Carpenter took the mound for his first session of live batting practice and promptly buzzed the fuzz on catcher Jason LaRue’s chin with an errant fastball.
"Sorry," Carpenter called from the mound.
"Don’t say you’re sorry," LaRue barked back.
"He said it," pitching coach Dave Duncan said from the side of the cage, "but he didn’t mean it."
~ DG
I think just because his numbers this year were buoyed by some luck, Jaime gets written off by the SABR community
But I think Jaime will get better just because he’s a lefty with like seven different kinds of breaking stuff. He can be transcendently effective when he has his control, he’s not just getting by with junk. He’s a bit like Mike Minor, I think.
If knowledge is the key, then just show me the lock.
Got the scrawny legs but I move just like Lou Brock.
After Heyward and Posey
I’d take a gamble on Strasburg after TJ,but just by a slight edge over Santana.
"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."
Ill have to go with Strasburg, but I also love Starlin Castro
If you didn't know by now, my screen name is sarcastic
Why?
No one has made a case for Santana yet, other than voting for him, so do elaborate, if you will.
In what St. Louis Cardinals manager Tony La Russa called a "big day" for his club, starter Chris Carpenter took the mound for his first session of live batting practice and promptly buzzed the fuzz on catcher Jason LaRue’s chin with an errant fastball.
"Sorry," Carpenter called from the mound.
"Don’t say you’re sorry," LaRue barked back.
"He said it," pitching coach Dave Duncan said from the side of the cage, "but he didn’t mean it."
~ DG
His bat is excellent
The injury doesn’t look like it’ll be a long term issue and he’s a catcher. Why does there need to be a case made for him?
http://bullpenbanter.com/
by Jeff Reese on Oct 24, 2010 7:43 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
This
I still take his bat over Posey’s actually, and defense looks fine. Strasburg already hitting TJ is just enough of a concern to knock him down to 4 for me below the hitters.
Here's my quick case, not that it is needed
Out of MLB players with at least 175 PA and 35 BB, Santana is one of 12 players who had as many or more walks than strikeouts – as a rookie. Out of those 12, he ranks sixth in BB/SO; and third in OPS, behind only Albert Pujols and Joe Mauer – pretty good company, if you ask me. The only negative compared to this group is the lack of AB due to injury, which as jar75 said, should not be long-term. Add his position, and I think he is the best available candidate for this list right now, with Strasburg being close. Here is the chart:
PLAYER AB BB SO OPS BB/SO
Albert Pujols 587 103 76 1.011 1.355
Joe Mauer 510 65 53 0.871 1.226
Carlos Santana 150 37 29 0.868 1.276
Magglio Ordonez 323 40 38 0.852 1.053
Carlos Ruiz 371 55 54 0.847 1.019
Chase Utley 425 63 63 0.832 1.000
Chipper Jones 317 61 47 0.806 1.298
Daric Barton 556 110 102 0.798 1.078
John Jaso 339 59 39 0.750 1.513
Jeff Keppinger 514 51 36 0.744 1.417
Jimmy Rollins 350 40 32 0.694 1.250
Luis Castillo 247 39 25 0.604 1.560
by cookiedabookie on Oct 24, 2010 8:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Strasburg
Because TJ recovery just isn’t as much of a gamble any more, and the small chance that he doesn’t rebound is more than made up for by how good he really will be if he does rebound.
Not a gamble?
It’s still very much a gamble. We know much better now what to look for before assuming a guy is ready to return to action, but there’s still a failure rate with the surgery, or at least a non-recovery rate, that is significant enough to make it a concern. I’ve heard of high school guys going under for TJ because they assume it will strengthen their tendon and they’ll be better long-term and healthier for it. Would you have reconstructive knee surgery before you tore an ACL? Would you have shoulder surgery before you tore a rotator cuff? That’s just asinine.
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on Oct 25, 2010 1:16 AM EDT up reply actions
Stanton
Part of it is the injuries scare me away a litte from Santana and Strausburg. The other part is Stanton was pretty dern good as a 20 year old in The Show. He’s already a middle of the order bopper and in his prime should be one of the best hitters in the game. In fact, his age 20 season reminds me of another 20 year old Marlin…
Since 1950 the players with more than 20 HR at age 20 or younger?
Frank Robinson
A-Rod
Tony Conigliaro (twice)
Al Kaline
Eddie Matthews
Orlando Cepeda
Bob Horner
Mickey Mantle
Mike Stanton
Ken Griffey
Vida Pinson
Willie Mays
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