My Blue Jays Top 20 Prospects List

by TwoEyesForAnEye on Oct 20, 2010 5:39 AM EDT

My Top 20 Blue Jays prospects heading into the 2011 season.

I know that someone just put up a Blue Jays Top 20 list but I have been working on this for a while and wanted to get it out there. This is my first attempt at a Top 20 list so let me know what you guys think.

1) Kyle Drabek (RHP)- Not much more to be said at this point. He had a very successful season in New Hampshire followed by 3 major league starts in which he showed impressive stuff and flashed 3 plus pitches. His fastball has great tail to it and generally sits in the 93-96 MPH range inducing a lot of weak contact. He compliments that with a plus curve with late, hard bite, a hard 90-92 MPH cutter with great movement and a developing change. The K rate in AA was a little lower than you would expect, but after seeing his stuff in the bigs it doesn't worry me. His fastball and cutter create a lot of weak contact early in AB's and I think the strikeouts will come. I see him as a cog in the Jays rotation for years to come.

2) Zach Stewart (RHP)- Stewart is right there with Drabek in my eyes. Not quite as good, but not that far off. He sports a fastball with heavy sink that can reach 95 mph, a nice hard slider, a change up that is steadily improving and a curveball that is currently a work in progress. Throwing strikes will be the key to Stewart's success and following the mechanical adjustments he made mid-season last year he was lights out. Some see Stewart as a future pen arm but I think starting is his calling card.

3) Carlos Perez (C)- This ranking may seem too aggressive to most people but I love Carlos Perez. He simply doesn't have many, if any holes in his game right now. He is viewed as a good defensive catcher with quick, smooth actions behind the plate and an accurate throwing arm that resulted in throwing out roughly 50% of attempted base stealers. On the offensive side of things, Perez makes good contact and shows an advanced approach and knowledge of the strike zone at the plate. This results in a fair share of walks and limits his strikeouts. He shows good gap power now and may develop more home run power as he matures, as he is still just 19. Also, Perez has surprising speed and athleticism for a catcher which contributed to his league high 8 triples in the NYPL. We will have to see how things go for Perez as he moves up the organizational ladder, but as of right now there are no red flags that give me cause for concern.

4) J.P Arencibia (C)- Arencibia had a strong rebound season in the PCL following Lasik eye surgery to repair his vision. He sports true plus power and his defence has improved to the point were it is considered at least average. He still has problems with plate discipline and strikes out too much but he did see a slight increase in his walk rate this season. I see J.P as an above average major league catcher capable of some 30 HR seasons.

5) Deck McGuire (RHP)- McGuire, taken in the first round of this past Junes draft is a big, durable, polished pitcher with 4 above average pitches. His fastball generally works in the 91-93 MPH range to go along with a hard slider, good change and curve. His ceiling is that of a #2/3 in the show and I see Deck working his way through the system pretty quickly with his mix of stuff, poise and polish.

6) Asher Wojciechowski (RHP)- Another big, strong college pitcher taken by the Jays in this past draft, Wojo throws harder than Deck with a fastball that sits in the 93-96 MPH range. He compliments that with a very good slider and had a strong, yet brief showing in the NYPL. However, he lacks an elite third pitch and some see him as a future closer. I have enough faith in his change up (and with the originations ability to develop a pitcher's change up) to see Wojo as a possible #2 starter in the future.

7) Travis d'Arnaud (C)- d'Arnaud started his season off strong hitting .328/.362./.547 in April but then injuries took their toll and back problems limited him to just 71 games this year. I still have faith in d'Arnaud and reports on his defence are positive but with Arencibia ahead of him and Perez and Jimenez breathing down his neck, next year will be big for Travis.

8) Adeiny Hechavarria (SS)- This one is tough for me. Hechavarria was signed to a 4 year, 10 million dollar contract by the Blue Jays this summer as a defector from Cuba. Starting his season in Dunedin, Hechavarria hit just .193/.217./.292 in 41 games while simultaneously adjusting to an entirely new country, language and lifestyle. Despite the struggles Hech was promoted to AA and did show improvement, hitting .273/.305/.360 in 61 games for the Fisher Cats. He also showed some good speed with 13 steals in 16 attempts. His defence is his biggest asset, as Hechavarria is right amongst the best defensive shortstops in the minors. However, plate discipline is a problem for Hech right now and he hasn't really shown any power yet. Call it a gut feeling, but I think that Hechavarria will continue to improve as he grows more accustomed to North America and put forth a strong season next year.

9) Henderson Alvarez (RHP)- Alvarez was looking to build on his strong 2009 season this year and things didn't exactly go as planned. He spent the year in Dunedin and posted a 4.33 ERA and a 4.01 FIP while allowing 11 H/9. However, he was still just 20 this year and used his mid 90's fastball to induce a good amount of groundballs. It is also worth mentioning that Alvarez was pretty unlucky with a BABIP of .344 this year. I liked what I saw at the futures game and being that Alvarez is just 20 he has time to develop his secondary offerings.

10) Anthony Gose (CF)- Gose is an extremely good athlete and sports some of the best pure tools in the minors. He has plus speed, a plus arm and is purported to be an excellent defender in center. Coming to Toronto in a trade with Houston for Brett Wallace, Gose hit .255/.360/.426 for Dunedin as one of the youngest players in the league. If Gose is going to be successful as a future top of the order hitter he has to work on his plate discipline as he does not walk enough for a player with his profile and strikes out far too often. Also, his base running needs to improve as he did manage to steal 45 bases this season but was also caught 32 times. The Jays essentially bought themselves a lottery ticket with Gose and time will tell whether or not they cash in.

11) Jake Marisnick (CF)- Another toolsy center fielder with good speed, Marisnick had a solid debut season in the GCL before skipping Auburn and landing in Lansing to end the season. Will have to see how bat holds up at higher levels.

12) Aaron Sanchez (RHP)- I love Sanchez and see him ranking much higher next year. At just 17 years of age he can already dial his fastball up to 94 MPH with plenty of projection left in his 6'4 frame. He also has the makings of a plus curve and is developing his change. After signing, he reported to the GCL where he struck out 28 batters in just 19 innings with a 2.57 GO/AO ratio. As with many young pitchers he lacks command right now, walking 17 batters in his 25 innings of work this year and that will need to be refined for Sanchez to take the next step.

13) Eric Thames (LF)- Thames made a great transition from A ball to AA this season hitting .288/.370/.526 while leading the Eastern league with 27 HR. His defence is reported to be pretty weak right now so his bat will have to carry him and right now it is.

14) Chad Jenkins (RHP)- Jenkins was kind of blah in his first minor league season and didn't move quite as quickly as some expected given his polish. However, he did show good control this year walking only 1.47 per 9 in Lansing and only 2.60 per 9 in Dunedin. He also used his hard, sinking fastball to produce a lot of grounders. If he can develop a better feel for his secondary offerings and miss a few more bats Jenkins will have more success in the future.

15) Gustavo Pierre (SS)- Pierre is another raw athlete signed as an international free agent in 2008. He has drawn comparisons to Hanley Ramirez from Frankie Piliere and his tools are exciting. He will need to continue to work on converting his tools into baseball skills to become a successful major leaguer and at just 19 years of age he has time to develop.

16) Brad Emaus (3B)- Emaus had a strong season this year in both AA and AAA showing a good approach and a strong eye at the plate. However, his defence is said to be bad and he lacks the power you want to see from a prototypical 3B prospect. This makes it hard for me to predict a future position for Emaus and is why he doesn't rank higher.

17) Adonis Cardona (RHP)- Signed as an international free agent out of Venezuela, Cardona was given a record bonus of 2.8 million this year by the Blue Jays. At just 16 years of age his fastball already touches 94 MPH with a lot of projection left in his frame. His curveball has the potential to be plus in the future and I'm sure the Jays will develop his change. I look forward to seeing Cardona progress in the coming years.

18) Noah Syndergaard (RHP)- Drafted in the supplemental first round of this years draft, Syndergaard was one of the youngest players in the draft and has a lot of projection left in his 6'5 body. He has the chance to develop a plus fastball/curve combo and become a very solid pitcher in the coming years.

19) Andrew Hutchison (RHP)- Hutchison may come as a surprise on this list but I like what he has done thus far. Drafted out of high school in 2009, Hutchison used a fastball that sits in the 90 MPH range and a good change to induce a 2.30 GO/AO ratio in Auburn while striking out a batter per inning. Promoted to Lansing for his final 5 starts of the season Hutchison walked 7 and struck out 19 in 23.2 innings with an ERA of 1.52.

20) Dickie Thon Jr. (SS) - Drafted in the 5th round of the draft this year, Thon signed for 1.5 million (first round money) and projects to stay at short long term. He has good speed, makes solid contact, and plays a sound short. He has good tools and his father is a former major leaguer which never hurts. Players with good tools who project as an everyday shortstop are hard to find and that is why Thon makes the list.

Just Missed: David Cooper, Joel Carreno, Mike McDade, Markus Knecht, Kellen Sweeny, A.J Jimenez.

There's probably some guys I'm forgetting so feel free to point them out too me. Who do you guys think is too low? Too high? Also, good to look at this teams system and see how far they have come in such a short period of time. Obviously not the best system in baseball but much better than even a year ago.

Tweet Comment 25 comments | 3 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

I like this list

Definitely more than the one posted the other day. I wouldn’t have Gose as high as he is here, he has the tools to rank there I just don’t have faith in him turning them into skills. I’d probably slot him at 14th or 15th and move everyone from 11 to 14 or 15 up a spot. I’d probably flip Thon and Emaus too, Emaus seems like a backup or 2nd division starter at best where Thon looks to be more valuable because he should stick at SS. Those are very minor quibbles though. Good list, good effort, and many thanks for actually including commentary on each player. It makes the lists so much better when we can see why a player is ranked where he is.

http://bullpenbanter.com

by gatling on Oct 20, 2010 12:30 PM EDT reply actions

Agreed, it's a good list.

I’m alright with where Gose is, and the Emaus thing isn’t a huge deal either.

I like the improvement this farm system has shown. Anthopolous has done a nice job there.

Baseball is my preferred sport. It should be yours, too.
I'm an editor for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.

by Satchel Price on Oct 20, 2010 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions

+1

Great list, can’t really add much more to gatling’s observations, which I agree with. I am a big Marisnick fan, albeit partly just one of those unquantifiable gut feeling things, would probably move him up to 7 personally. Also think I’d swap D’Arnaud and Hech’s positions; believe slightly more in Hech’s defense at an up the middle position. System is on the rise; tough division, but Jays fans finally have some reasons for hope.

by goldenblack on Oct 20, 2010 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions

I like Marisnick alot too and I can see him moving up this list in the very near future. I just want to wait and see how his bat holds up at higher levels. He definatley has exciting tools though.

by TwoEyesForAnEye on Oct 20, 2010 6:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Thanks man, appreciate the feedback.

Gose is a tough one to rank because as you mentioned, it basically depends on whether or not one thinks he will turn his raw tools into baseball skill.

by TwoEyesForAnEye on Oct 20, 2010 6:34 PM EDT up reply actions

They seem loaded. This next 2-4 years will be a real test for their ability to develop prospects, especially young pitchers.

"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner

by Fla-Giant on Oct 20, 2010 2:33 PM EDT reply actions

my thoughts

Nice list. 1-6 would contain the same players for me. The rest is pretty hard to figure out but I think you have Jake Marisnick too high and Eric Thames too low…true that Marisnick has defensive calue and Thames is limited in that department but Marisnick is just so unproven at this point I would give the nod to Thames who had a big season and could be on the Adam Lind pathway. Cardona is also too high for my taste…he is only 16 and miles away and we just dont know anything about him other than he got paid. Mcdade and Jiminez are two that I would move up.

by JJACK on Oct 20, 2010 5:43 PM EDT reply actions

Thanks for the input man.

Appreciate your opinion on Thames being ahead of Marisnick and obviously a case can be made for it but I love the overall tools Marisnick has displayed a little more than Thames bat. Right now for me Thames is limited to playing a below average Left or DH’ing and that, along with his previous injury history lowers his value enough for me to see Marisnick as the better prospect. Don’t get me wrong though, I still love Thames bat.

by TwoEyesForAnEye on Oct 20, 2010 6:58 PM EDT up reply actions

Thames

I do really need to see more of his defense but from what I have seen there is no reason to think he can’t be an average LF. He definitely looks better in the OF than Lind does. I hope Marisnick fulfills the tools. And It was really only a minor quibble as I realize Marisnick has the chance to be a complete player and his Lansing struggles were small sample following a 2 step promotion.

Did you give Alvarez over Sanchez much thought or is it a case of just wanting to see more from Sanchez. I’d have Sanchez over Alvarez right now as I think his ceiling is higher and really Alvarez hasn’t proven to have a higher floor as he still has lots to iron out.

by JJACK on Oct 20, 2010 7:56 PM EDT up reply actions

Ya I really like Sanchez

and as I said in the article, I can see him exploding up this list rather quickly. I just want to see him carry it forward into next year and hopefully continue to refine his command. Also, I know it was only a one inning thing but I was really impressed by Alvarez’s stuff in the futures game. He does have alot to iron out though as his secondaries aren’t great/consistent yet.

by TwoEyesForAnEye on Oct 21, 2010 1:54 AM EDT up reply actions

Perez

love the aggressive placement on Perez

by Slinger on Oct 20, 2010 6:20 PM EDT reply actions

Thanks.

I just like the all around package that he is already displaying at such a young age. I also see him developing some more power as he matures, not a ton or anything but possibly a 15 HR type guy.

by TwoEyesForAnEye on Oct 20, 2010 6:41 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree

He doesn’t seem to carry the giant question mark of whether he sticks at catcher or not that most of the top catching prospects do. And as you mentioned, the package he’s showing makes me very excited even if his ceiling is at 15 or so homers.

It’s been said, but is worth repeating, the Blue Jays farm is loaded at catcher

by Slinger on Oct 20, 2010 10:13 PM EDT up reply actions

"aggressive placement"

Doesn’t aggressive placement imply its probably too high? in which case I agree, but don’t “love” it.

by ayjackson on Oct 21, 2010 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions

Pierre has the potential to be a monster hitter

Kid got better and better at recognizing pitches to hit over the summer. I seen him a few times and the improvement was massive…

by Bravesin07 on Oct 20, 2010 7:15 PM EDT reply actions

Ranking a short season catcher that high kind of makes me cringe

Mostly because low level catchers have SUCH a high flame out rate. But I guess that’s just a matter of personal preference.

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Oct 20, 2010 7:44 PM EDT reply actions

Generally true

But Perez looks like a probable exception; none of the usual pitfalls are visible with him. I haven’t seen a negative comment on any aspect of his defense; rare for someone so young to have such clean mechanics behind the plate, even moreso to have the aptitude for game-calling that he’s reputed to. Likewise, his bat doesn’t look especially vulnerable to failure; outstanding plate discipline and coverage skills for his age, already able to hit the ball to all fields, etc. Whether he has true star potential remains up for debate, especially with no visible power yet, but he looks about as safe as a short-season guy can be.

by goldenblack on Oct 20, 2010 8:21 PM EDT up reply actions

Excellent list man

Really enjoyed reading this. While I don’t consider myself extremely versed in the progression of the Jays’ prospects this year, I think Syndergaard has the tools to be moved up a few spots, ahead of Cardona and Emaus. Emaus has limited potential, especially at 3rd, while Cardona is still extremely young. Also, I think Thon could be flipped with Hutchison for sure as the Jays have perfectly demonstrated how difficult it is to find a legitimate quality SS (Russ Adams anyone)? Obviously just very, very minor points of preference, but this was a great list to read!

by brewerm on Oct 20, 2010 9:13 PM EDT reply actions

Thanks man glad you enjoyed it.

I think i’m having second thoughts about putting Cardona on this list because, as alot of people have pointed out he is just so young and anything can happen with his development from here on in. Other than that, the other guys you mentioned are pretty interchangable depending on preference I think.

by TwoEyesForAnEye on Oct 21, 2010 2:01 AM EDT up reply actions

Carreno

With the season he had I think he definitely deserves a spot on the list instead of say Hutch. Also, Gose doesn’t seem to high, I think Adeiny might be. I’d also probably switch Alvarez and Marisnik spots. Cardona doesn’t really deserve to be on the list, ya he got a huge bonus, but he’s 16 and hasn’t done anything yet.

by daman316 on Oct 20, 2010 10:22 PM EDT reply actions

I thought about putting Carreno on this list, and he might have been the guy I would replace Cardona with because its pretty hard to ignore what he did in Dunedin this season. His K rate and K/BB ratio was ridiculous but he was a 23 year old in A ball. I just want to see how his stuff translates to more age relevent competition in AA next year before i’m sold on him.

by TwoEyesForAnEye on Oct 21, 2010 2:05 AM EDT up reply actions

Have to say as someone who has Perez glued to the top of his own Jays list

big props on the agressive position, agree fully on the no visible issues part and expect him to work up the Jays system rapidly despite the crowding at C. Agree with most of the list as to rough position but i’d switch out Cardona for Moises Sierra, agree with the injuries this season moving him out of the top 10 but think he’s a lock for the top 20. Solid to above average OFer with improving power and contact skills who showed good progression at Dunedin before his injuries, expecting him to jump back this coming season at New Hampshire.

by TtD on Oct 20, 2010 11:44 PM EDT reply actions

Sierra was kind of a forgotten man this year with the injuries and hopefully he can get back on track next season. I’m just not sold on him though. I think to jump back onto the list he needs to pick up where he left off in 09 and produce some more power, as the injuries really hampered his development time. He’s still just 22 but he’s on the bubble for me as of now.

by TwoEyesForAnEye on Oct 21, 2010 2:38 AM EDT up reply actions