Minnesota Twins Top 20 Prospects for 2011
by John Sickels on Oct 16, 2010 6:00 PM EDT
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Minnesota Twins Top 20 Prospects for 2011
All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don't get too concerned about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get past the Top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you want to emphasize.
Feel free to critique the list, but use logic and reason rather than polemics to do to. The list and grades are a blending of present performance and long-term potential. Full reports on all of players can be found in the 2011 Baseball Prospect Book. We are now taking pre-orders. Order early and order often!
QUICK PRIMER ON GRADE MEANINGS:
Grade A prospects are the elite. They have a good chance of becoming stars or superstars. Almost all Grade A prospects develop into major league regulars, if injuries or other problems don't intervene. Note that is a major "if" in some cases.
Grade B prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers. Some will develop into stars, some will not. Most end up spending several years in the majors, at the very least in a marginal role.
Grade C prospects are the most common type. These are guys who have something positive going for them, but who may have a question mark or three, or who are just too far away from the majors to get an accurate feel for. A few Grade C guys, especially at the lower levels, do develop into stars. Many end up as role players or bench guys. Some don't make it at all.
A major point to remember is that grades for pitchers do NOT correspond directly to grades for hitters. Many Grade A pitching prospects fail to develop, often due to injuries. Some Grade C pitching prospects turn out much better than expected.
Also note that there is diversity within each category. I'm a tough grader; Grade C+ is actually good praise coming from me, and some C+ prospects turn out very well indeed.
Finally, keep in mind that all grades are shorthand. You have to read the full comment in the book for my full opinion about a player, the letter grade only tells you so much. A Grade C prospect in rookie ball could end up being very impressive, while a Grade C prospect in Triple-A is likely just a future role player.
MINNESOTA TWINS
1) Kyle Gibson, RHP, Grade B+: Overcame injury concerns, fits perfectly into Twins pitching philosophy.
2) Alex Wimmers, RHP, Grade B+: Shouldn't need a lot of minor league time, and I think his stuff is underrated.
3) Aaron Hicks, OF, Grade B+: Borderline B. I still believe in the tools and will give him some slack on the power development.
4) Miguel Sano, 3B, Grade B: Raw, but enormous power upside and youth combination push him up the list.
5) Liam Hendriks, RHP, Grade B: Borderline B-; grade may change. Another Twins guy with excellent command of solid stuff.
6) Ben Revere, OF, Grade B, Borderline B-: I still like him, but I'm growing more concerned about the lack of power, and he needs to use his speed better. (Original List had Revere at 7, Arcia at 6. Updated 10/18)
7) Oswaldo Arcia, OF, Grade B: Borderline B-, grade may change. Great numbers in Appy League, but plate discipline issue is of concern.
8) Billy Bullock, RHP, Grade B-: Could be a huge bullpen force if the command sharpens up a bit more.
9) Adrian Salcedo, RHP, Grade B-: Same grade as last year, great command, still projectable.
10) Max Kepler-Rozycki, OF, Grade B-: Tough to grade at this point, immense potential but very young and inexperienced, held his own in rookie ball.
11) Joe Benson, OF, Grade C+: Good progress with his power development, strikeout rate remains scary.
12) David Bromberg, RHP, Grade C+: Potential inning-eating starter.
13) Carlos Gutierrez, RHP, Grade C+: Power sinker would look good in bullpen.
14) Angel Morales, OF, Grade C+: Great tools, high strikeout rate, high risk/high reward guy.
15) Manuel Soliman, RHP, Grade C+: Another efficient young Twins pitcher, breakthrough candidate.
16) Eddie Rosario, OF, Grade C+: Love this guy, sleeper outfielder from '10 draft, speed, on-base skills, some power potential.
17) Nate Roberts, OF, Grade C+: Another '10 draft sleeper, solid tools and consistent production.
18) Tom Stuifbergen, RHP, Grade C+: Could rank a few slots higher, but concerns about health history and conditioning make me somewhat cautious.
19) Kane Holbrooks, RHP, Grade C+: Overlooked guy but had a great year and has decent stuff. Looks like a sleeper to me.
20) B.J. Hermsen, RHP, Grade C+: Borderline C, Grade is speculative. He's from Iowa so I would normally be predisposed to like him, and I like his strike-throwing ability, but something holds me back that I can't put my finger on.
21) Bruce Pugh, RHP, Grade C+: Borderline C: Live arm, strikes people out, could surprise if his command sharpens up.
22) Pat Dean, LHP, Grade C+: Borderline C; Love the 32/1 K/BB ratio in the Appy League, but need to see at higher levels.
OTHERS: Matt Bashore, LHP; James Beresford, SS; Logan Darnell, LHP; Rob Delaney, RHP, Brian Dozier, INF; Niko Goodrum, SS; Deolis Guerra, RHP; Matt Hauser, RHP; Edgar Ibarra, LHP; Andrei Lobanov, LHP; Chris Parmelee, 1B; Josmil Pinto, C; Trevor Plouffe, SS; Daniel Rams, C; Tyler Robertson, LHP; Steve Singleton, 2B; Anthony Slama, RHP; Rene Tosoni, OF; Kyle Waldrop, RHP; Dakota Watts, RHP.
The Twins don't have any Grade A or A- guys at this point, though Sano and maybe MKR can get there eventually. Lots of depth in B-/C+ types; some of those C+ may end up as regular C in the book since I often start of my grading optimistically then go back and review things. Keep track of sleeper pitchers like Holbrooks and Pugh, very under the radar but more promising than some guys who get more press.
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splendid
I don’t think there’s a single grade here that I’d quibble with. Could make an argument that Benson should be a tick higher, but considering the amount of risk here I’d agree it’s bad to get too excited. Solid AA numbers, but needed a demotion to get going.
by mrkupe on Oct 16, 2010 6:14 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Great list
Mostly spot on with my feelings of the system. Skeptical enough of Revere I might drop him from the top 10, and love Rosario enough that I might actually move him up to that 10 spot. Beloit is going to be one of the most fascinating teams to watch next year, with all those OFs, Sano, Salcedo, Dean, etc.
B+ feels too aggressive on Wimmers
At least at this point… could easily see him reaching that level, maybe even higher, in a year’s time.
Also feels a little aggressive for Hicks after the season he had (would really have liked to see him show something at A+ this year).
Other than that no quibbles. Fine work as always, John.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
Disagree on both
I feel that they’re graded well, and if anything Hicks shouldn’t be on the borderline.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
Need to see more production at higher levels
Or else absolutely spectacular scouting reports. Neither applies.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
I can't say the scouting reports are 'absolutely spectacular'
but they’re definitely what’s buoying Hicks’ high grades right now. John’s grade for him doesn’t seem too high to me, if you believe those reports.
And while he didn't dominated the Midwest League
His season was definitely successful.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
If he was that good
One would think he would have seen at least a short stint at A+ this season. Advancing levels is a big part of my methodology for evaluating prospects. Hicks has over a thousand professional plate appearances now and not one of them is above single A ball.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
Why?
Do you hold it against Matt Moore that he spent all year in the FSL? Seems like an arbitrary standard when some teams just prefer to be deliberate in their promotions.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
Matt Moore didn't spend over half of last year at A+ as well
I want to see forward momentum, not… stagnation.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
didn't Hicks add almost 100 points of OPS?
And that’s after an awful start to the season. If you divide his Midwest League time into three chunks, the first being last year, the second being the first half of this year, and the third being the second half of this year, this is the breakdown by OPS:
1) .735 OPS
2) .782 OPS
3) .889 OPS
Yes, that's progress as expected
But it doesn’t raise his stock to a B+ from where I had him before based on scouting reports (B). If he had advanced a level and shown that kind of increase in production, then I think I’d be willing to go that third of a grade higher.
It’s not a significant difference in any case. We are pretty close in how we view him, I think.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
C+
Seems like a harsh grade for Benson, Gutierrez and Morales. I’d definitely take all three over Bullock.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
Bullock
I was a bit surprised with his ranking as well.
by cookiedabookie on Oct 16, 2010 8:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Arcia
I love this kids bat. Personally I would have him ahead of Hendriks, closely behind Sano. Love this grade.
by King Billy Royal on Oct 17, 2010 12:10 AM EDT reply actions
Thoughts
I think I disagree mainly with Bullock (too high) and Morales (too low). Bullock’s upside just doesn’t seem that great, given that he’s a reliever and doesn’t have a dominant second pitch. I really like Morales… he does strike out a bit too much right now but he also walks at a decent clip and is very young. He can be a plus defender in a corner OF spot and has huge raw power from the right side. The top 4 is pretty set (not necessarily in order) but I like Morales as a high as #5 and a ‘B’ grade.
I also like Hicks more than his preliminary grade. It’s important to keep in mind that the Twins system, particularly high and low A-ball but also AA, features extreme pitchers’ parks, some of the most difficult offensively in all of minor league baseball. The thing about Hicks is that he doesn’t even need to hit for much power to be a star- a plus defensive CF with on-base skills is a huge commodity. And I still think he will hit for power down the road.
comments
I’m sticking with Bullock..i know that is a high grade for a reliever but there are things there I like. I recognize Morales upside but am not convinced he will reach it.
I can’t see a B+ for Hicks being too low. He’s not an A- in my view….not given the fact that he was repeating the league and did not dominate. Keep in mind that B+ is a VERY high grade for me, it means he’ll get in the Top 50.
by John Sickels on Oct 17, 2010 1:37 AM EDT up reply actions
wow
Morales has some potential, sure, but I don’t see any justification at all for him to be a B grade. He’s young but hasn’t really grown as a player, and he’s had the benefit of more development time (and a slower development track) than most players his age. He’s been a semi-fashionable breakout guy since he was in the Appy League, it’s just not really clicking in the way that it needs to for him to project at present as a regular.
I don’t think the Bullock grade is too high. That’s part of the nature of the grade system . . .players with a chance of contributing in high leverage situations out of the pen need to be recognized. He’s clearly more likely than Morales to contribute to a major league team.
I would make him a B
He needs to show the power before he earns the “+”.
by King Billy Royal on Oct 17, 2010 2:21 AM EDT up reply actions
I think you missed my point
I’m saying that C+ is appropriate for Morales. He might have more pure hitting ability in him to tap based on his extremely high BABIPs (.392 in 2010 MWL, .374 in 2010 FSL), but I just don’t really see it. He’s going to need some work just to project as a major league regular. The experience factor isn’t that big of a deal here – we are talking about a player who has had 1300+ plate appearances over 4 seasons. He doesn’t need to be destroying his competition by this point, but there needs to be evidence of growth. The evidence isn’t there.
I'd Agree here
Angel Morales is definately in the C+ range
I’ve been tracking him for 3+ years now…. and at the very best he deserves no higher than the #8 spot in this system…. B-? maybe next year, maybe
I called it - Joe Mauer's first career Home-Run at Target Field !!!
Why Oh Why did the D'Backs select A.J. Pollock over Mike Trout?
I hate Hunter Wendelstedt, you hate Hunter Wendelstedt we all hate hunter w
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Oct 17, 2010 4:57 AM EDT up reply actions
Tell me what I'm missing here
Angel Morales is still very young, and his numbers with Beloit were better than those of the slightly older Aaron Hicks. He was promoted to Fort Myers… and Hicks wasn’t. So why does Hicks consistently keep getting higher grades? I don’t get it.
this isn't that hard to understand
Morales has an extra pro season and almost 500 more plate appearances than Hicks. That is a huge difference. Hicks has a better eye at the plate. Morales has very good tools, Hicks has elite tools.
Numbers do not equal talent
Sometimes they’re a result of it, but I highly doubt that you’d take Mike Hessman as your power hitting first baseman just because he’s the active leader in minor league home runs.
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on Oct 17, 2010 7:48 AM EDT up reply actions
Age
And even with an extra year of playing time (and finishing at a higher level), Morales is younger than Hicks.
My point exactly
He’s younger.
He finished higher.
He had better numbers.
So what exactly is it about Morales that keeps him so far below Hicks in people’s opinion? It seems to me that K/BB is valued above OPS. Why, exactly?
The Mike Hessman argument, with all due respect, is a red herring here.
its like comparing Michael Taylor (Angel Morales) with Dominic Brown (Hicks)
one of these things is not like the other
Hicks as elite potential and gets some credit for that in his rankings….
Morales does not have that potential.
I called it - Joe Mauer's first career Home-Run at Target Field !!!
Why Oh Why did the D'Backs select A.J. Pollock over Mike Trout?
I hate Hunter Wendelstedt, you hate Hunter Wendelstedt we all hate hunter w
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Oct 19, 2010 10:31 PM EDT up reply actions
I meant to respond to John's comment
My bad homie.
by King Billy Royal on Oct 17, 2010 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Bullock
Perhaps, but I’m not sure he has a better chance at contributing out of the bullpen than Carlos Gutierrez does. Gutierrez also has a (slim, growing slimmer) chance at sticking in the rotation.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
Morales
I don’t think you can say he hasn’t grown as a player. The minor leagues are about development, not putting up counting stats. The Twins have been working to change Morales’ approach; he struck out far more in the Appy League than he has in A-ball. His power numbers are also down, but the ability is there.
I think he’s clearly a cut above the ‘C+’ prospects as listed here anyway… guys like Nate Roberts and Eddie Rosario have inferior tools and little track record. He is much more similar to the B/B- group, guys like Arcia and Revere. I would undoubtably put Morales above Arcia… they both tore up the Appy League but Morales is a better athlete. He’s held his own in A-ball whereas Arcia could easily flame out there.
I put #5/B grade as my aggressive take, but more objectively he still fits better in the top 10 and as a ‘B-’.
by drivlikejehu on Oct 17, 2010 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions
I like the Wimmers grade...
He’s the Mike Minor of 2010, except he’s RH. He’s a college pitcher who knows he can throw 94-95 if he wants to, but instead pitches at 88-91. Throw some weight on him and I think he can pitch at 91-93 consistently.
Revere
The only person who’s ranking I substantially disagree with is Ben Revere. I look at him and I see the guy who hit .379 in the Midwest League at the age of 20, and has hit .300 in 3 straight tough, hitter’s leagues. I would try to tell you how good playerswho hit .379 in the Midwest League at the age of 20 do in the Show but, there are NO other such ballplayers.
Yeah, it would be nice If he hit for more power but, there are some players who develop into star players without it. He’s got a foolproof (and platoonproof) line-drive swing, speed, and a decent eye. Even If he doesn’t develop the moderate power Kenny Lofton developed (during an epic hitters era) I still think he can be the same kind of player and as good as him as well.
I wouldn’t have that much of a problem taking him over Kyle Gibson actually. I think of Gibson as been kinda like Scott Baker, who is a good, big league pitcher. I think Revere could be a better than that.
Deal with the life you’ve got. Solve the problems you have, rather than fantasizing about a life without them.
-Bill James
I wouldn't go that far
But I do think you’re on to something. Basically, for me with Revere it’s all about the defense. If he’s only a viable starting defensive option in LF, then he probably doesn’t have enough bat. If he can play CF at all, we can talk. If he can play a good CF, sign me up. Jason Grey had good things to say about Revere’s defense in CF tonight.
Still, an impressive find for the Twins considering they jumped on him in the first round when Revere was projected as a 3rd to 5th rounder.
+1
Revere would probably make my top 5 as it is, but if he can play CF well then he really jumps up the list.
Buster Posey>
"I thought he was going to punch me and I was totally accepting of it. I was planning a reason to thank him if he did." Brian Wilson on Buster Posey
I'm on the opposite end of the spectrum
I look at him, and I see another Jason Tyner. Unless you project a power spike, which I don’t see, he pretty much has to maintain a .390-.400 OBP with good CF defense to cut it. I’ve yet to see that his CF defense matches his speed, and he has a wet noodle for an arm. Best case scenario is probably Juan Pierre; there are others in the Twins system I’d rather roll the dice on.
by goldenblack on Oct 17, 2010 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions
How do you mean "cut it"?
I think sometimes people have a hard time grasping the value of being an above average defender in a premium position like center field. Michael Bourn batted .265/.341/.346 this year and was worth 4.2 WAR. Of course, that was with 17 run defense which makes a huge difference, but even if you knock that down to +5 run defense, that would still leave him as a 2 WAR player… which is everyday regular quality in MLB.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
Cut it might not have been the right way to put it
Well, if he does show Bourn caliber defense, then I’m wiling to give a bit more leeway on the bat. He has that kind of raw range given his speed, but most reports I’ve seen on him are that his instincts in the field lag a fair bit behind his range, plus Bourn has a good arm, while I’ve seen multiple 20 grades on Revere’s. I think +5 defense is a fair projection for Revere’s defense at the moment, which yeah, could make him an average regular. But, I just don’t see much of a ceiling beyond that for him right now, and that still entails him actually proving he has the strength to effectively drive balls, fight off hard stuff inside, etc. Revere also hasn’t been as successful on the basepaths as Bourn or Pierre were in the minors; good, but not outstanding. I think Revere will probably be a decent bench player, but I see moderate at best upside contingent upon a still notable amount of projection.
For what it's worth
Ben Revere with three great plays in center tonight – showing the range
I agree with you though. It turns on his fielding.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
Saw you already mentioned that
My mistake! Well, take it as confirmation then.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
Question
Yeah, it would be nice If he hit for more power but, there are some players who develop into star players without it. He’s got a foolproof (and platoonproof) line-drive swing, speed, and a decent eye. Even If he doesn’t develop the moderate power Kenny Lofton developed (during an epic hitters era) I still think he can be the same kind of player and as good as him as well.
I’m curious how you expect Revere to be as good as Lofton if he doesn’t develop the same kind of power. It’s not likely be through a better walk rate, Lofton averaged 10% BB rate in the majors which is a big jump from the ~7% rates Revere has in the minors. With his current level of power I can’t see Revere posting walk rates too much higher than he’s done in the minors. I suppose Revere could hit for a high enough average to bring his OBP up enough to match Lofton without having an equal walk rate, but Lofton hit .299 for his career so Revere would probably need to hit .310+ consistently to do that.
I’d be shocked if it was through defense, Lofton averaged 14 runs above average for his first eight years in the league. So now we come back to power. Lofton wasn’t a slugger by any means but he posted a career .124 ISO in the majors, more than double what Revere has posted the last two years in the minors. Lofton did have four years where he posted ISO’s below .100 but even then his lowest was .080 which is a good bit higher than the .058 Revere has posted in back to back years. Even with his low power output, Lofton had enough power where pitchers had to respect it some. Without a power increase from Revere pitchers won’t have any reason not to challenge him with every pitch.
Maybe you don’t remember how good Lofton really was though. Lofton posted WAR totals of 4.1 or higher for each of his first eight years in the league, with five seasons at 5.5 or higher, three above 6 WAR and two of those over 7 WAR. From ages 33-40, Lofton posted a WAR of 2.7 or higher in five out eight years and three years over 3.1 WAR. I’m not sure if you were just talking peak production or overall production, but either way it’s going to be incredibly tough for Revere to match Lofton either way.
http://bullpenbanter.com
by gatling on Oct 17, 2010 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Not If he has the talent, it wont
In the minors…
Lofton’s Pa’s 1561 – Walks 114
Revere’s Pa’s 1513 – Walks 112
Loftons ISO – .79
Revere ISO- .84
Lofton played in an era where power was at it maximum but I ssee your point. I DO think it won’t be as difficult as you think for Revere to hit .330 .310 some seasons with a decent amount of walks- and a similar amount of power, jut witha ton of triples and not as many homers.
The kid is already got all the tools and he’s got a lot of developing to do as well. By the way, your point about him having no pop/ therefore no walks/ no respect just doesnt hold all the way. There is plenty of room for little guys with no pop to work the count – Ozzie Smith, Brett Butler, etc.
Deal with the life you’ve got. Solve the problems you have, rather than fantasizing about a life without them.
-Bill James
RE:
Not sure if you’ll even see this since it’s off the main page, but here goes. First, not sure where you got your figures for Lofton, but they don’t match up at all with what I found. I came up with 1595 PA and 159 walks. That puts Lofton right around the 10% walk rate he posted in the majors and higher than anything Revere has posted to this point. Could Revere improve his walk rate from the 7-8% range? I’m sure it’s possible but I wouldn’t go counting on him to improve his walks totals by 25%.
You are right, the career ISO in the minors is very similar, but Revere’s ISO has dropped from .136 in 2007 to .118 to 2008 to .058 the last two seasons. That’s not the kind of trend you want to see. As I said in my original post, Lofton never posted an ISO below .080 in the majors. Maybe instead of saying Revere won’t hit for as much power you were strictly meaning HR totals, but for non-sluggers especially I look at ISO for power not raw HR totals. Lofton hit 21 or more doubles for 11 straight years with 8 of those years at 28 doubles or more. That’s a big jump for Revere to make just on doubles power, let alone the stark difference in HR power. Again, it’s possible that Revere has a big power spike but he would need to double his minor league ISO while hitting .310 and keeping his walk rate at least 8% to be Lofton’s equal offensively. That is an awfully of things that have to change for the positive for Revere and I just don’t see anything in his stats or his scouting profile to say he’s a good bet to do that.
As for your two arbitrary examples in Ozzie and Brett Butler, both walked much more than Revere does currently. Ozzie had an extremely small minor league sample but he walked somewhere in the 11.5-12% range in that time and at 10.1% in the majors. Butler walked 18.2% of the time in the minors and 12% of the time in majors. We’re talking about a guy with an above average eye/approach in Ozzie and an exceptional one in Butler. Those are much, much higher numbers than what Revere is currently doing in the minors. He’d have to make wholesale changes in his approach to come close to those type numbers.
Revere is what he is, a slap hitter that uses his speed to his advantage, walks a little bit and has shown very little power/potential for power. If his defense is as good as it sounds like it might be, he’ll be a major league regular for awhile. I just can’t see any way to say he could be as good as Kenny Lofton, especially if you’re qualifying that statement with the thought that Revere won’t have similar power to Lofton(which I firmly agree with).
http://bullpenbanter.com
Brett Gardner is looking like Revere's cieling
I called it - Joe Mauer's first career Home-Run at Target Field !!!
Why Oh Why did the D'Backs select A.J. Pollock over Mike Trout?
I hate Hunter Wendelstedt, you hate Hunter Wendelstedt we all hate hunter w
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Oct 19, 2010 10:28 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not sure I'd go that far even
Gardner had vastly superior walk rates to Revere as well: 13.2% in 2006, 12% in 2007, 16.4% in 2008, 9.2% in 2009(MLB) and 11.4% this year. Career 14% walk rate in the minors for Gardner is almost double Revere’s career 7.4% rate. Juan Pierre seems like a good outcome for Revere. I’m not sure there is potential for much more than that though.
http://bullpenbanter.com
Forgeting one thing
… which tends to always be left out in conversations like this. Revere can hit for average MUCH better than Gardner. You may be onto something with Jaun Pierre but, then again, Pierre is a preetty good baseball player.
I think Revere’s ability to slap the ball around and hit TONS of singles is getting short shrift in this conversation. I’d rather have Revere’s .328 average than Garnder’s walks. Thats just me though.
We’ll after to agree to disagree herte. My gut tells me he’ going to be a VERY similar player to Kenny Lofton. i think he could even win a batting tittle someday.
Deal with the life you’ve got. Solve the problems you have, rather than fantasizing about a life without them.
-Bill James
Yeah, I'm not surprised you'd prefer empty average to superior OBP skills
It would be very much out of character for you if you did. Pierre has had a couple of pretty good years, but in general he’s been a slightly above average player. There is a huge difference between a guy like Juan Pierre and a guy like Kenny Lofton, though.
I’m still not sure how Revere is supposed to be very similar to Lofton though. You’re already saying less power and seemingly fewer walks. He could possibly he a better defender but that’s an extremely tall order. Unless you think he’s going to be a career .330 hitter like Ichiro…I just don’t see much of any way that Revere can be close to Lofton. Like you said though, we can agree to disagree.
http://bullpenbanter.com
I dont "prefer empty average"
I just don’t pretend that the 30 point difference between Gardner and Revere doesn’t exist. Most peiople around here – possibly you, I’m not sure- like to explain these things away by luck, BABIP, etc. I tend to not believe in that stuff unless it is a small sample. revere has been lacing liners around various minor league parks for 3 years now.
Lofton’s power, relative to the massive power era he played, isn’t all that impressive or lofty to achieve. Most players who are any good see a spike in ISO when they go to the majors don’t they? I think he can ISO .100 once he develops and get a .370 OBP on a regular basis (Lofton’s career number). I think he’s going to be 80 to 90 percent off what Lofton was.
All Im saying is that you mention Loftons advantage in walks and power but make no mention of Revere’s advantage (in thier minor league career’s) in getting base hits – .328 to .300, giving Revere a .389 OBP to Lofton’s .370.
You may not think so but, revere looks to me like someone who has the ABILITY to hit .300 in the big leagues, thus he could hit .330 in a good year.
Deal with the life you’ve got. Solve the problems you have, rather than fantasizing about a life without them.
-Bill James
Still an empty average
I completely agree with gatling’s assessment of Pierre as Revere’s ceiling, said it myself somewhere else on this forum. If you’re willing to go with that as a premise, and you don’t seem to have argued it yet, then there’s a major discrepancy between Revere and Gardner. Gardner just put up a 4 WAR season (per BRef, Fangraphs is down for me atm); Pierre’s career best was 3.3, and his average WAR per season (factoring out his partial rookie season) is a thoroughly pedestrian 1.37. I agree with you Revere could hit .330, but that still isn’t really all that meaningful if it’s with a .370 slugging and 7% walk rate, especially without gold glove level defense.
by goldenblack on Oct 20, 2010 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions
RE:
I just don’t pretend that the 30 point difference between Gardner and Revere doesn’t exist. Most peiople around here – possibly you, I’m not sure- like to explain these things away by luck, BABIP, etc. I tend to not believe in that stuff unless it is a small sample. revere has been lacing liners around various minor league parks for 3 years now.
I don’t think anyone is pretending the difference in average doesn’t exist, it’s just that it’s not really that important. Even with the lower average Gardner got on base at a higher clip than Revere did. That’s what I was getting at when I mentioned you preferring the empty average. You’re inclined to prefer a player with a higher batting average, seemingly with no regard for how often he gets on base. Generally speaking, I could care less what kind of a batting average a player posts if he is getting on base at a high rate-especially for a leadoff type. I’d take a guy that hits .260 with an OBP of .360 over a guy hitting .300 with a .350 OBP. You seem to prefer the second player.
Lofton’s power, relative to the massive power era he played, isn’t all that impressive or lofty to achieve. Most players who are any good see a spike in ISO when they go to the majors don’t they? I think he can ISO .100 once he develops and get a .370 OBP on a regular basis (Lofton’s career number). I think he’s going to be 80 to 90 percent off what Lofton was.
Not sure what the first part really matters, unless you think Lofton was on PED’s. I’m not sure that your second statement is really entirely true, but let’s say it is. A spike in ISO is one thing, but to get to Lofton’s career ISO of .124 Revere would have to more than double his ISO the last two years. Even to get to the .100 ISO you’re suggesting that’s still a huge increase over the .058 ISO’s he’s posted the last two years. I certainly wouldn’t want to count on that big a jump for a slap hitter.
You may not think so but, revere looks to me like someone who has the ABILITY to hit .300 in the big leagues, thus he could hit .330 in a good year.
I do think Revere can ~.300, but Lofton had a career .299 average and hit .325 or higher 4 times in his career. Revere is going to have to make big improvements in his game either with his walk rate or ISO to be as valuable a hitter as Lofton was, unless Revere hits .320+ every year. 80%-90% of Lofton is different than “as good as Lofton” as you originally said. Still not sure that Revere will be even that good, but it’s a much different argument there.
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Some Irony here
Totally separate from the argument of Revere as a big leaguer vs Kenny Lofto as one is this – the minor league OBPs and SLGs of the three players that have been discusses (this time getting Lofton’s stats from thebaseballcube)…
Revere .389 – .412
Gardner .389 – .383
Lofton.370 – .379
Revere is 22, Garnder had his best minor league season at age 24, and Loftons at age 23 and 24
I’m supposed to prefer a guy with a lower OBP who actually has JUST AS GOOD an OBP?
All this talk about Revere’s lack of power yet he has a HIGHER slugging percentage.
This is a case when a supposed “empty batting average” – isn’t one! Without taking into account all those singles he hits, you aren’t giving Revere credit for one of his strengths, in fact the primary strength, of his offensive game. The fact that you prefer walkks over singles is what is at isue here maybe?
As far as my argument of Revere v Lofton, I used the word same “type” of player, “similar”, and the like. I think Lofton will be a disruptive leadoff force like him. I think he’ll get on base just as much- play as good of a CF – and maybe hit for a tad less power.
I wasn’t implying Lofton was on PEDs, just that his power wasn’t as good as it looks- relative to the league – and the bar wasn’t as high in today’s game to reach that level.
Deal with the life you’ve got. Solve the problems you have, rather than fantasizing about a life without them.
-Bill James
Probably no point in this, but I'm gonna try again
Totally separate from the argument of Revere as a big leaguer vs Kenny Lofto as one is this – the minor league OBPs and SLGs of the three players that have been discusses (this time getting Lofton’s stats from thebaseballcube)…
Revere .389 – .412
Gardner .389 – .383
Lofton.370 – .379
Revere is 22, Garnder had his best minor league season at age 24, and Loftons at age 23 and 24
I’m supposed to prefer a guy with a lower OBP who actually has JUST AS GOOD an OBP?
All this talk about Revere’s lack of power yet he has a HIGHER slugging percentage.
Oh my, where to begin. Yes, Revere has a higher career OBP in the minors than either Lofton or Gardner. He also has vastly lower walk rates than either one of those guys. Revere’s OBP is buoyed by his career .328 average in the minors. Are you honestly ready to say he’s going to post a career average of .328 in the majors? That’s Ichiro territory as I mentioned before. If Revere is a career .300 hitter(which we both seem to believe is possible) his OBP would be around .360 at that point without an increase in walk rate. That’s lower than Lofton’s career number of .372 and just barely above Gardner’s .358 career OBP in the majors. Though for Gardner that is based on a career average of .268(pulled down by a .228 rookie year), if he hits .270-.275 as he’s shown capable the last two years he’d OBP ahead of Revere easily.
As for the slugging, If you want to compare them you need to look at ISO unless again you’re projecting Revere as a .328 hitter in the majors. Even then, you’re overlooking the fact that Revere’s ISO has trended downward from 2007, bottoming out at .058 the last two years. He hasn’t shown the ability to hit with any kind of power against better pitching as he’s moved up the ladder, but if you want to rely on his ISO numbers from rookie ball and Low A, go ahead. I just think you’ll be sorely disappointed.
This is a case when a supposed "empty batting average" – isn’t one! Without taking into account all those singles he hits, you aren’t giving Revere credit for one of his strengths, in fact the primary strength, of his offensive game. The fact that you prefer walkks over singles is what is at isue here maybe?
How am I not giving Revere credit for his contact ability, i.e. the singles he hits? I’ve said repeatedly that I think he can be a ~.300 hitter at the MLB level. That doesn’t change the fact that he’s a singles hitter with little power and substandard walk rates. I don’t care how a guy gets on base, it’s getting on base at a higher rate that is the important thing. I would take a player with a lower batting and higher OBP over a player with a higher average and lower OBP because the important thing is getting on base more often. How it happens is largely irrelevant to me, especially for a leadoff hitter.
As far as my argument of Revere v Lofton, I used the word same "type" of player, "similar", and the like. I think Lofton will be a disruptive leadoff force like him. I think he’ll get on base just as much- play as good of a CF – and maybe hit for a tad less power.
This is not the case at all. Your original comment in this thread reads:
Even If he doesn’t develop the moderate power Kenny Lofton developed (during an epic hitters era) I still think he can be the same kind of player and as good as him as well.
That’s not saying he’d be similar, you flat out said you expect him to be as good as Lofton, though without the same amount of power. To do that, he either has to hit .330+ every year, improve his walk rate, or become a better defender than Lofton. It’s not likely he does any of those things. Again, if you had originally said you could see him as 80% of Lofton, I might not have even commented but you can’t go back and change your original stance to try and counter my arguments. It doesn’t work that way.
Finally, I don’t understand your obsession with comparing Lofton’s ISO to the league at that time. It really has no bearing on anything. Regardless of the era he played in, he posted a .124 ISO. Unless you think it was aided by PED’s, it doesn’t matter one bit when he did it. It’s still a number that is more than twice what Revere has produced the last two years and he will be hard pressed to come close to that figure in his career. Getting to an ISO of .100 as you suggested is still a huge improvement for Revere to make.
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You are right, no point
except to keep on trying . . .
1 I can change my original stance If it wasn’t exactly what I meant to say- this isn’t a college debate class or whatever. I’m just a guy trying to explain his thoughts- there is NO contest. If there is one, about how good Revere is going to be, it won’t be desided here. Saying “..the same kind of player and just as good as him as well” isn’t exactly the same as “he’s going to be just as good as Kenny Lofton in his prime”. Just a little naunce there. Its not like im skipping all over the place just to fit my argument, I’m just elaborating.
2 I have to admit I’m stuck on Revere’s 2009 season. Hitting .379 in the midwest league is a fantastic accomplishment. I think he’s capable of playing much better than he did in 2009 and 2010. No way to prove that right? There are quite a few precedents though of this happening- players getting motivated, the closer they get to the big leagues.
3 Lofton went from a minor league career ISO of .079 to a dynomite leadoff man in a great hitters era. It doesn’t even matter now if he used PEDs! I am not saying that. I’m saying it was easier to hit for power and OBVIOUSLY, since Lofton was leadfing off – power was not the biggest strength of his game! I think with maybe a bit better average, maybe a few less walks ( though Revere has a TON of room to develop here), and similar defensive ability that they will be similar type players.
Put it this way, take a look at Lofton’s 1997 season with Atlanta. I think Revere’s career will have a lot of seasons that look something like that.
Deal with the life you’ve got. Solve the problems you have, rather than fantasizing about a life without them.
-Bill James
Last shot
You’re right, we’re not in a contest or anything else. But changing your stance mid discussion isn’t productive. I replied based on what you originally posted, a statement that said you believed he would be “just as good”. I can’t read your mind or assume you mean something other than what is written. You’ve redefined what you expect from him and that’s fine, but it doesn’t help during the course of a discussion.
I really don’t know why you’d be hung up on that 2008 season. It’s not a season he’s likely to ever repeat, it was a neat little season but it really doesn’t mean much of anything. The problem with your last sentence there is Revere has actually performed worse as he’s gotten closer to the majors. It could be a light comes on for him later or it could be that his production is declining as he faces better pitching. Hard to say at this point, but I think the key is to get over the 2008 season and focus on what he’s doing that could be repeatable.
Yes, Lofton had a career minor league ISO of .079 but his ISO trended upward from .052 to .064 to .109 as opposed to Revere who has posted declining ISO’s. How was it easier for Lofton to hit for power because other players were on steroids? I really don’t get what that part of your argument has to do with anything. Even though power wasn’t a big part of Lofton’s game he was a better power hitter than Revere is proving to be. It’s important when it comes to value between the two players.
I looked at Lofton’s 1997 season. He posted a .367 wOBA and 5.5 WAR. I don’t see Revere coming close to that type of season. But we’ll just agree to disagree.
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You are right
.. about Loftons’ walks. i got my info from basdeballref.com. they are usually excellent but, they were missing the first couple of years data of Loftons walks AND included his Pa’s so I was way off base on that part. My bad, I should be more carefull.
A
lso, I wasnt saying Revere was exactly comparable to Butler ort Ozzie Smith, just that the idea that someone won’t/can’t develop a batting eye because they dont have a lot of pop is a fallacy. It makes sense when you thgink about it but, Denard Span can work a walk, if you know what I mean.
Btw, I dont really think Revere is going to work a ton of walks, just a decent amount. what I think he’ll do is sting a lot of HITS.
Deal with the life you’ve got. Solve the problems you have, rather than fantasizing about a life without them.
-Bill James
I guess you misunderstood me
or I wasn’t clear about this part. I’ll try again here. Revere current approach doesn’t lend itself to a high walk rate. Low K rates and low-ish walk rates tell me he’s not seeing a lot pitches per plate appearance, he’s being aggressive at the plate because his game is based on contact. Unless he changes his approach and becomes more selective(likely at the expense of his batting average to a certain extent), he’s not likely to improve his walk rate at the MLB level because he doesn’t have enough power to keep pitchers from challenging him in the strikezone.
Not sure Denard Span is a good example either, his walk rate and ISO have declined each year in the majors.
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OK
I think he has a pretty decent walk rate considering he stibngs so many base hits around the park. He doesn’t have to lose any batting average to be more selective though, I wouldn’t think. That usually happens to HYPER-AGGRESSIVE hitters who have a hard time adjusting to taking pitches. Revere already has a pretty good batting eye- he’s just a good hitter who.
Span is an example of a guy who yhas a good walk rate despite not having power, thats it. The league does appear to be catching onto him though. That supports your point I guess.
My point is that there are quite a few players down the years who have walked a good amoubnt without a lot of power. Though logical, I dont think that point about no power/ no walks holds water- especially since Revere is a small dude with a tiny strike zone.
Deal with the life you’ve got. Solve the problems you have, rather than fantasizing about a life without them.
-Bill James
I guess I will try one more time
My point is that there are quite a few players down the years who have walked a good amoubnt without a lot of power. Though logical, I dont think that point about no power/ no walks holds water- especially since Revere is a small dude with a tiny strike zone.
Nowhere in any of my posts did I say that no power=no walks. My point is with the little power Revere does have it’s not going to be easy for him to improve his walk rate at the MLB level. To be as good as Lofton, he’s going to have to improve some part of his game somewhere, unless he hits .330 year in and year out(even then, he has to get the ISO to .100 to come close value wise). I don’t doubt he can hit ~.300 at the MLB level. I just think he’ll do so with subpar walk rates and power, turning him into more of a Juan Pierre than a Kenny Lofton.
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I gotcha
Looking at Lofton and Pierre’s big league career’s, Lofton had a lifetime OPS+ of 107, and Pierre’s is 85. I think Revere will be around 100. Closer to Lofton than Pierre but, between them. I also think there is much reason to believe that Revere will play a better CF than Pierre.
I agree the similaritier between Revere and Pierre in the minors is there.
Deal with the life you’ve got. Solve the problems you have, rather than fantasizing about a life without them.
-Bill James
That's more optimistic than me
but I could see Revere as a more consistent Pierre I suppose. I’m not sure how much better he’ll be defensively, or that he’ll even be a CF with Span and then Hicks to contend with. If he’s in LF though, he should be near a plus defender there so the value would be pretty much the same either way. I guess I see him as more of a 2-2.5 win player on average with a season or two where he could be in that 3.5 win range. That’s just a far cry from what Lofton did in his career.
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Just for the sake of staying out of the gatling/ casejud smackdown : Revere's comps I've heard (since he's been drafted)
Juan Pierre
Kenny Lofton
poor man’s Jacoby Ellsbury
Brett Gardner (ok that one’s probably all on me)
Ichiro Suzuki (Sickles started this one waaaaaay waaaay back but did say it was absolute ceiling)
1 or two others out there i know it
I called it - Joe Mauer's first career Home-Run at Target Field !!!
Why Oh Why did the D'Backs select A.J. Pollock over Mike Trout?
I hate Hunter Wendelstedt, you hate Hunter Wendelstedt we all hate hunter w
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Oct 22, 2010 12:20 AM EDT up reply actions
sorta agree here limozeen
I think he’s one of the best if not the best B+ prospect in baseball…
I called it - Joe Mauer's first career Home-Run at Target Field !!!
Why Oh Why did the D'Backs select A.J. Pollock over Mike Trout?
I hate Hunter Wendelstedt, you hate Hunter Wendelstedt we all hate hunter w
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Oct 17, 2010 4:59 AM EDT up reply actions
just as a note
Keith Law tweeted earlier that Carlos Gutierrez was throwing a 94-97 MPH sinker earlier tonight. I like the versatility here . . .maybe a Carlos Silva type in a rotation, but he could be an excellent late inning option as well.
Really? wow
I was thinking all week long that the gun was spot on in velo. readings or if anything a tick under (now I’m not so sure) lol
thanks for this kupe…
He should be a solid arm out of the ’pen at the very least in the near future for the Twins,
although he is a good trading chip for Bill Smith IMO
I called it - Joe Mauer's first career Home-Run at Target Field !!!
Why Oh Why did the D'Backs select A.J. Pollock over Mike Trout?
I hate Hunter Wendelstedt, you hate Hunter Wendelstedt we all hate hunter w
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Oct 17, 2010 5:03 AM EDT up reply actions
it's not impossible
For example, I saw Aaron Crow throw a bunch of mid-90s sinkers earlier this year, topping out at 96.
Connor Glassey tweet from 10-13
Best pitcher I saw either day was Twins Carlos Gutierrez. Definition of dirty. Heavy 93-95 FB & sharp 85-87 slider. Everything hard & down.
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Bullpen
and once Gutierrez is pitching 100% out of the bullpen, he will dominate with that stuff. He’ll be good. Can’t really judge basebad on the numbers as a starter.
great work again, john
since 2007(when i started reading/following here), i think this is the best Twins list i’ve seen from you
in my opinion
I called it - Joe Mauer's first career Home-Run at Target Field !!!
Why Oh Why did the D'Backs select A.J. Pollock over Mike Trout?
I hate Hunter Wendelstedt, you hate Hunter Wendelstedt we all hate hunter w
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Oct 17, 2010 5:01 AM EDT reply actions
Good list
I think Gibson is underrated and I like the ranking, though I’d probably make Hicks #2. I’d also probably put Revere in the top 5
Buster Posey>
"I thought he was going to punch me and I was totally accepting of it. I was planning a reason to thank him if he did." Brian Wilson on Buster Posey
Why did Salcedo skip both short-season and normal A-ball, going straight from rookie-ball to high-A is a bit strange isn’t it?
Salcedo
I believe I read that he only started at high-A to get some work in before short-season began; but I would expect SSH or someone else would be able to confirm that
Sounds right
Might have been an injury to another pitcher that opened the spot for Salcedo too, but I don’t remember right off.
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Yeah
Fort Myers had an injury or two to start the season and needed an SP for a couple weeks. Salcedo was already there working out for short-season prep; Twins decided to give him a trial run.
Striking to me how international this list is.
In the top 20 we have IFAs from Australia, Venezuela, Germany, The Netherlands, three Dominicans and two Puerto Rican draftees.
Not cheapy or low ceiling players, either.
Well done, Twins.
Bullpen Banter
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twitter: @alskor
I think you've been overly cautious if anything, too, John.
I see a number of guys I might bump a half grade up.
Bullpen Banter
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twitter: @alskor
Gibson = Baker???
Except his groundball ratio’s are amazing. Now, I’ll be honest I don’t know how Baker’s GB ratio was in the minors but from his majors numbers it’s pretty bad. If you take a guy that has the potential to be like Baker with a much better GB rate you’re talking about a guy that has the ceiling of a #1 pitcher. Gibson is very exciting and while he may never be Tim Lincecum he could be very very good.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
Hey great minds out there, look up OF Evan Bigley
-and tell me whatcha think
does he deserve to be in the “others” category or no mention at all?
personally he’d be in the 30’s on my top 50 Twins prospects….
another one, who John just cut was OF Danny Ortiz but I like Bigley better…. (i think)
One things for sure
lotta lotta lotta OFers in this system (tooo many)
I called it - Joe Mauer's first career Home-Run at Target Field !!!
Why Oh Why did the D'Backs select A.J. Pollock over Mike Trout?
I hate Hunter Wendelstedt, you hate Hunter Wendelstedt we all hate hunter w
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Oct 22, 2010 12:13 AM EDT reply actions
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