BA PCL TOP 20
by doublestix on Oct 13, 2010 11:17 AM EDT
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Print1. Buster Posey, c/1b, Fresno Grizzlies (Giants)
2. Mike Moustakas, 3b, Omaha Royals
3. Michael Pineda, rhp, Tacoma Rainiers (Mariners)
4. Madison Bumgarner, lhp, Fresno Grizzlies (Giants)
5. Dustin Ackley, 2b, Tacoma Rainiers (Mariners)
6. Logan Morrison, 1b/of, New Orleans Zephyrs (Marlins)
7. Tanner Scheppers, rhp, Oklahoma City RedHawks (Rangers)
8. J.P. Arencibia, c, Las Vegas 51s (Blue Jays)
9. Justin Smoak, 1b, Oklahoma City (Rangers)/Tacoma (Mariners)
10. Brett Wallace, 1b, Las Vegas 51s (Blue Jays)
11. Jason Castro, c, Round Rock Express (Astros)
12. Mat Gamel, 3b, Nashville Sounds (Brewers)
13. Michael Kirkman, lhp, Oklahoma City RedHawks (Rangers)
14. Chris Carter, 1b/of, Sacramento River Cats (Athletics)
15. Peter Bourjos, of, Salt Lake Bees (Angels)
16. Mitch Moreland, 1b/of, Oklahoma City RedHawks (Rangers)
17. Henry Rodriguez, rhp, Sacramento River Cats (Athletics)
18. Greg Halman, of, Tacoma Rainiers (Mariners)
19. Cory Luebke, lhp, Portland Beavers (Padres)
20. Mark Trumbo, 1b/of, Salt Lake Bees (Angels)
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/league-top-20-prospects/2010/2610784.html
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Pleased to see Wallace and Castro still (apparently) in top 100 territory
Which I agree with.
Like the IL, the PCL was pretty stacked again. Shouldn’t be surprising.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
Wallace...
I’m not a believer at all anymore. He was unceremoniously shipped out of Toronto for a toolsy but raw A-baller, and he’s an immobile 1B who doesn’t walk enough and has never showed good enough power to be a plus bat. His .203 and .208 ISOs the past two seasons in hitter-friendly environments aren’t good enough for a bat-only player.
I’m actually kind of perplexed as to why anyone still believes he can be an above average major league bat.
He has a great swing
…and he has more raw power than his stats show. He’s still making some mechanical adjustments to unlock it on a consistent basis, and his plate discipline is also inconsistent from at bat to at bat, but both show flashes of great promise.
I’ve also come to the belief from watching him that he will be an above average defensive first baseman.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
The raw power argument...
would be more persuasive to me if one of two things were true. Either A) he already had a very good approach and just needed to add strength or make a minor tweak to add some more loft to his swing, or B) he had ever shown indications of being able to translate that raw power in games.
Neither of those things are true. On the first issue, Wallace needs to improve his approach by leaps and bounds to be an adequate major leaguer. I’ll give him a mulligan for his MLB debut, but his entire minor league track record his plate discipline has been far from adequate for a bat-only player, and he doesn’t make up for it with plus contact rates. So not only does he need to tweak his swing, he also needs to revamp his approach to increase his walks, cut down his strikeouts, and increase his power all at the same time. That’s a very steep hill to climb.
On the second issue, yeah. Wallace has just never hit for plus power with wood bats. A .200 ISO in hitters’ parks is the kind of line you see from career minor leaguers. He’ll have a major league career of course, because he was a key figure in a high-profile trade, but I’m not convinced he’ll ever be good or even average during that career.
It is a minor tweak
He wasn’t getting his front foot down before swinging, and as a result wasn’t getting as much leverage through his hips. Also left him vulnerable to inside pitches. The Astros have been working with him on it and he’s been improving.
The “deficiencies” in his approach have, I think, been exaggerated because of how much he gets hit by pitches. He sets up close to home plate and the book on him is to pitch him inside. You’ll notice that in his minor league career he was hit by pitches in 3.1% of his plate appearances, which is far more than the average. His BB+HBP rate is a much more reasonable number of 10.5%. I’m of the belief that many of those HBP would be walks if not for his unusual tendencies to get HBP. His on-base percentage is higher as a result, and will likely continue to be higher than you would expect based on his BB/K numbers.
I also think you’re vastly overestimating how high the average minor league player’s ISO is. It’s a rare display of massive power when a prospect manages over .250 ISO, even in a hitter’s park.
That said, I don’t think Wallace has true 70 or plus power, either—but I think he will be above average once he adjusts.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
I'm not underestimating...
the average minor league ISO. I’m not even talking about it. I’m talking about the standard for an acceptable ISO for a quality first base prospect, which is much higher. .205 in a hitters’ park is very poor for a first baseman who doesn’t have a sterling defensive reputation. To put things in perspective, Justin Smoak gets bandied about as a 1B with sub-standard power for the position whose prospect status is improved by plus on-base abilities and solid-average defense. Justin Smoak’s ISO in the worst pitchers park in the PCL was .218.
The HBP thing is taking a lot on faith. He didn’t get hit a huge amount in the PCL (9 times in 95 games), and his major league total is small sample. Assuming that it’s a repeatable skill or that without the HBPs he’d be drawing more walks is entirely unpersuasive. Even if you think it’s repeatable, he doesn’t walk enough to get on base at an average level unless he’s hitting ~.290 or so every year, and with his contact rate i’m not optimistic about his chance to do so.
As far as the small mechanical tweak that will allow his power to show up, if it’s really a small and insignificant adjustment, all I can really say is I’ll believe it when I see it but not before.
Basically, Wallace’s prospect status seems to be 100% projection. His performance has just never justified it. He’s never walked enough, never hit for enough power, never flashed a plus ability to make contact, and never played even average defense.
I’m all for taking projection into account, but when it’s all you’re hanging your hat on for a 23-year-old prospect, and when a lot of the improvements have to come from improvement in skills and approach rather than just added strength, you’re starting to talk about a guy who more likely than not will never be an above average major leaguer.
that should read
worst hitters’ park. Cheney, where the Rainiers play, is a pitcher-friendly stadium.
Have you actually seen Wallace play?
I only ask because you call him “immobile” and he’s not immobile at all.
"Every time you go to that cook-off you get drunk as a poet on payday!"
I was using immobile...
as shorthand for “really bad defender.” Which he is.
We'll have to agree to disagree, then
Because from what I’ve seen of him at first base, he’s not a “really bad defender” by any means.
"Every time you go to that cook-off you get drunk as a poet on payday!"
Yes
He’s just being lazy, Slam I meen, not Wallace
Wallace comes from a long line of guys who were decenlty-slightly below average 3b who moved to first-base and are actually good over there.
No matter how good of a defensive player someone is it won’t stop someone around here from saying they aren’t. Especially if the ballplayer in question doesn’t have a picture perfect baseball body.
Deal with the life you’ve got. Solve the problems you have, rather than fantasizing about a life without them.
-Bill James
When every prospect report I read...
over a period of over two years refers to a guy as a bat-only prospect, that informs my opinion of him, yes.
If any evidence comes up praising Wallace’s defense, I’ll happily reconsider.
Nevermind
I’d tell you that almost anybody who plays a passable 3b for any length of time usually can be a pretty good 1b but, Im sure you wouldn’t believ me. He’s solid over there.
Deal with the life you’ve got. Solve the problems you have, rather than fantasizing about a life without them.
-Bill James
Miguel Cabrera played slightly below-average 3B for 2 years.
He’s a butcher at 1B.
Nobody’s ever described Wallace as anything other than a butcher with the glove. We’ll see once we have some hard data on him, but this year’s reports on him don’t paint any rosier a picture of his glove than last year’s did.
Do you understand the concept of positional adjustments?
And where they are derived from? A shortstop is X more valuable than a third baseman who is Y more valuable than a first baseman, etc.
Positional adjustments were actually estimated by looking at the history of players moving from one position to the next and seeing how they performed afterward.
So yes, you would expect, as a general rule, that a third baseman moving to first base would perform much better across the diamond, as illustrated by the 15 run gap in their positional adjustment. Let’s say Wallace was a -10 run third baseman, a conservative estimate if you put any stock in TotalZone. In that case, you would expect him to be a +5 run first baseman.
Poor reports of his defense were in relation to how he performed at his position—third base. First base is much easier to handle.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
He played all of 2010 at 1B
And yet:
His speed and mobility are well below-average and he’ll never be an asset defensively.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
Yes, but that assumes...
that the 3B was passable there athletically. I’m well aware about the adjustments as a guy slides down the defensive spectrum. Wallace, however, generated absolutely no positive reports for his glovework this year. As a 1B.
I also don't think...
Wallace’s 3B defense qualifies as passable. Not any more than Mat Gamel’s or Ryan Braun’s did.
Well
That is entirely unfair. . . to even Mat Gamel! Gamel has some throwing problems but has decent range and athkleticism over there. Wallace had solid first step quickness, nice hands, and an accurate arm – just not very good range.
Braun had no positives at the position.
Wallace was better at 3b than you think. Most of the bad “reports” tend to be about his future at third and how fat he is but, he really didn’t PLAY poorply at 3b. I don’t expect you to believe me or take a cursory look at his readily available 3b data.
Deal with the life you’ve got. Solve the problems you have, rather than fantasizing about a life without them.
-Bill James
bad range...
is far from a non-issue. I’m open to the idea that Wallace isn’t a statue at 1B. Not sold, but open to it. I’d like to see some comments from scouts that actually suggest he has that ability before I buy it. Even if true, though, tt doesn’t change much of anything about his prospect status. He’s still a bat-first player at a power position whose bat isn’t good enough.
Sure
But I just don’t like having the “bad defense” thing tacked on thier just because you don’t like the guy. I don’t agree with the hitting part either, by the way. Not sure exactly what you are seeing when you loom at his numbers this year in the minors. I see a guy who hit .300 – sprayed around a good amount of doubles a longballs – and drew a walk or got a hbp one every 10 pa’s or so – not too shabby- and is a solid 1b.
Deal with the life you’ve got. Solve the problems you have, rather than fantasizing about a life without them.
-Bill James
Not too shabby?
A .208 ISO in an extreme hitters park is awful for a 1B. As I said above, Smoak is considered a guy with below-average power for a 1B, and his ISO was higher in a harder park to hit in. That would be fine if Wallace had another plus offensive skill (like his ability to draw walks), but that’s below average as well. So is his contact rate, so you can’t project him to hit at or above .300 with any regularity in the bigs.
Not only that, the .208 ISO Wallace posted this year wasn’t a down year, it was his career high.
You can argue his projection, but Brett Wallace has never turned in a performance that suggests he’s got the potential to be an above average major league 1B.
Shoot
I can watch Justin Smoak take batting practice and see that he has pretty damned good power potential. Wallace has a shorter swing but he’s got some decent pop in that bat.
Let me take a quick glace at the players with average ISO’s at 1b in the majors . . .hmm
Personally, I think Wallace could hit for as much power as Gaby Sanchez, Lyle Overbay, Andy LaRoche, or Aubrey Huff – guys like that
Deal with the life you’ve got. Solve the problems you have, rather than fantasizing about a life without them.
-Bill James
Awful? Really?
Here are the ISOs of some current young-ish MLB first basemen in their entire time at AAA:
Joey Votto: .184
Adrian Gonzalez: .166
Kendry Morales: .183
Kevin Youkilis: .182
Note that all of these guys were roughly the same age as Wallace at AAA. I’m not pointing them out to provide a representative sample—you can pull out examples with .300+ ISO if you go hunting. I’m merely illustrating a point.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
All 4 of those players
experienced huge breakouts in their mid-late 20s, showing improved skill as well as added strength. With the exception of Morales, their milb numbers were all far, far better than Wallace’s, too.
The list of guys who ISO under .200 in the minors and don’t go on to dwarf that number in the majors is far longer than the list of guys who do. If we focused on the breakout guys as a likely future for every prospect we think about, we’d reach a lot of absolutely awful conclusions.
I’m not saying a breakout isn’t possible for Wallace, but it’s absolutely not something I’d expect to occur. His minor league performance just hasn’t been very good, and three separate teams have given up on him in very short order, twice in straight-up prospect for prospect swaps.
Also...
context is important. Gonzalez was considered a bust for the majority of time he spent in triple-A. He broke out a bit in 2005 with a .223 ISO and a .339 BA in a half-season, but he was still shipped out to San Diego for a very minimal return.
Votto and Youkilis both played in the IL, a league with an average ISO of .136 over the past 5 years. For comparison’s sake, the PCL’s average ISO for the same time was .154, and the average for the Las Vegas 51s was .161.
Both Votto and Youkilis also came up with questions about their power, but they each had a very different profile that made them superior prospects. Youkilis was a 3B in the PCL who pretty much everyone agreed could play the position pretty well. The Red Sox have just had a string of very good defensive 3Bs. Youkilis was also considered to have sub-standard power, and when he was mentioned in prospect circles, it was his batting eye that drew all the attention. Votto’s AAA ISO was significantly lower than the number he posted in AA the year before (.228). He also did it in a pitchers’ league. Wallace’s was his career high.
Morales’s 2009 is a good picture of the best-case scenario for a guy like Wallace. Both players don’t walk and purportedly had mammoth power but never showed it in the minors. Two things set the players apart, though: first, Morales’s contact ability rated as plus-plus. He K’d in only 12.8% of his minor-league plate appearances. For a guy with any power at all, that’s just nuts. In the majors he’s sacrificed contact a bit for power, which is a tradeoff he could afford to make. Wallace’s contact ability isn’t awful, but it’s definitely not plus (and it was downright awful in MLB this year, but like I said, I’ll give him a mulligan for that). Second, Morales is an incredibly slick-fielding 1B. Even if he’s not a butcher, nobody’s ever called Wallace a plus glove.
In case you’re not noticing, there’s a theme here. It’s not that a 1B needs to have mammoth power, it’s that if he doesn’t, he needs to offset that deficiency by being really good at something else. Votto had plus-plus defense and plus plate discipline. Youkilis had plus defense and plus-plus discipline. Morales had plus defense and a plus-plus pure hit tool. Gonzalez is the outlier, because he was screaming bust until he wasn’t anymore.
Wallace has never showed one of these other plus abilities. In fact, all of them range from slightly below average (contact, defense) to awful (batting eye). That’s a problem, because at 23 you want a guy to have shown you glimpses that he’s good at at least one or two of the things he’ll need to do in order to become a successful major league hitter.
BABIP is a skill
Wallace is very, very good at producing line drives for singles and doubles. That’s why his minor league batting average is over .300 despite, as you said, only decent contact skills. I firmly believe that he will hit for average in the majors, in the long term.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
Obviously, his BABIP will be lower in the majors
In the same sense that every prospect is subject to regression as they move up. That’s no different from any other statistic, though, and it doesn’t change the fact that he has posted premium BABIP/line drive numbers throughout his minor league career, so you would expect regression would still leave him above MLB average in that area.
I should note that this fits well with scouting reports praising his ability to make solid contact to all fields and keep the bat in the zone a long time.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
What jar said.
That’s a stretch. It’s not like we’re talking about a guy who’s routinely put up BAs of .330 and above here. Brett Wallace is not exactly Howie Kendrick. And Howie Kendrick hasn’t exactly translated into the all-star everyone thought he’d be due to his plus-BABIP abilities.
For a chilling comp that may resonate with you:
Player A: 23 years old. ISO: .208, (hitter’s park). BB%: 6.4%. K%: 21.6%
Player B: 23 years old. ISO: .198 (pitcher’s park) BB: 10% K%: 24.3%
Brett Wallace is a less patient version of Bryan LaHair, circa 2006.
I remember that guy
..,. for sure. Separate question but . . .How many damned waks do you need a guy to draw by the way? ? I watched Wallace a lot in college and he had a FINE batting eye. I thinmk hes gone away from that some trying to get out of the minor leagues but, I expect it to return at some point. He walks enouigh for me now.
Deal with the life you’ve got. Solve the problems you have, rather than fantasizing about a life without them.
-Bill James
There's no bright line, but the 5-6% neighborhood is entirely inadequate.
As a general guideline, 10-12% is solid, anything above is plus, anything below is a problem.
At least...
that’s the way most people look at it. Take a look at BA, Goldstein, Bryan Smith, etc…that’s generally the boundary that separates the guys who they say need to work on pitch recognition from the guys who are on the right track.
League average for the PCL this year was 8.9%.
Any way you slice it, 27 walks in 423 plate appearances against minor league pitchers is absolutely awful.
Incidentally
. . not to dodge your question but, I dont think Lahair and Wallace look that much alike when you look at thier minor league records closely.
Deal with the life you’ve got. Solve the problems you have, rather than fantasizing about a life without them.
-Bill James
Wallace and LaHair
Wallace had a better age 21 season, LaHair’s walked more throughout his career. Overall though, the two players have had pretty similar power outputs. LaHair never had the power necessary to play 1B in the majors. He just wasn’t good enough. Wallace doesn’t have appreciably more power than LaHair did. That’s a red flag. A big one.
just my 2 cents, but he looked totally competent the times I saw him.
by haverecords on Oct 13, 2010 10:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Jeff Bagwell...
Did pretty well at the first sack after moving from 3B…
maybe it's just the fan in me
but i’d take David Lough over some of these guys. the adjustments he made as the season went along really impressed me. and between he and Dyson, nothing fell in the outfield.
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
I'm really suprised Pineda is higher then Bumgarner
by King Billy Royal on Oct 13, 2010 12:33 PM EDT reply actions
Similar results but better K/9 without losing any of the control and with more velocity?
It’s 3 and 4, I’m sure interchangeability in the rankings is arguable amongst the BA writers.
by Kenneth Arthur on Oct 13, 2010 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Pineda's obvious splits should be a flag, though.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Oct 13, 2010 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe people will finally start realizing that Chris Carter isn't anything special
I’m still perplexed by the people who had him up there with Hosmer and Freeman as 1B prospects.
Erik Hosmer
saw him yesterday in the Pan Am games and was surprise at how fast he is. He hit a triple to LF and get to 3rd before the throw.
List from 5 years ago
1. *Felix Hernandez, rhp, Tacoma
2. *Rickie Weeks, 2b, Nashville
3. *Prince Fielder, 1b, Nashville
4. *Conor Jackson, 1b, Tucson
5. *Matt Cain, rhp, Fresno
6. *Casey Kotchman, 1b, Salt lake
7. *Carlos Quentin, of, Tucson
8. *Dan Johnson, 1b, Sacramento
9. *Ezequiel Astacio, rhp, Round Rock
10. *Jeff Mathis, c, Salt Lake
11. *Anthony Reyes, rhp, Memphis
12. *Yuniesky Betancourt, ss, Tacoma
13. *Ben Johnson, of, Portland
14. *Rich Hill, lhp, Iowa
15. *Fernando Nieve, rhp, Round Rock
16. *Ronny Cedeno, ss, Iowa
17. *Joe Saunders, lhp, Salt Lake
18. *Josh Willingham, c, Albuquerque
19. *Josh Barfield, 2b, Portland
20. *Justin Huber, 1b, Omaha
*Has played in major leagues
http://bullpenbanter.com
Strong top 5
Kind of disappointing overall from there on down however
I wouldn't call
Quentin or Willingham disappointing – certainly better that Conor Jackson.
by cookiedabookie on Oct 13, 2010 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions
I wasn't saying every single person after the top 5 was disappointing, or that everyone in it was great
Just that in general the top 5 looked good (especially Hernandez, Fielder, and Cain), while the vast majority of 6-20 was pretty worthless. Willingham has been great. Quentin and Jackson are both fairly disappointing. Quentin has barely been above replacement level outside an amazing 2008.
"Just that in general the top 5 looked good (especially Hernandez, Fielder, and Cain)"
You aren’t impressed by Weeks? I know it took a while, but he was a 6-win player this year and has emerged as arguably the best non-Utley second baseman in the NL.
Baseball is my preferred sport. It should be yours, too.
I'm an editor for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
by Satchel Price on Oct 13, 2010 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions
No I'm impressed by Weeks
He just hasn’t been nearly as good as the 3 guys I named thus far in his career. If he can carry his 2010 performance forward, he could certainly catch up with at least Fielder and Cain.
Yeah, but he belongs in that group of obvious successes
I just thought it was peculiar to note those three while ignoring the guy who nearly matched King Felix in WAR this year.
And obviously I agree with your statement in general.
Baseball is my preferred sport. It should be yours, too.
I'm an editor for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
by Satchel Price on Oct 13, 2010 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions
sure, this year
But he’s been very underwhelming for much of his career, and he’s already into his later 20s. So while I enjoyed this year, for a guy who was supposed to be an absolute stud, it’d be hard to argue him being any less than a mild disappointment when you look at his career to date.
I would argue that health was really the only thing holding him back
His 2010 wOBA of .368 isn’t that far off from his .351 career mark, and he’s really only been a full season away from stardom.
He finally put together a full season this year, and it was an absolutely fantastic season. I think he’s due for a string of top-level seasons if he can stay healthy, and I think this would’ve been the case had he been fully healthy the past few years, too.
Baseball is my preferred sport. It should be yours, too.
I'm an editor for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
by Satchel Price on Oct 20, 2010 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions
A lot of busts on that list
Read about the MLB at Total Bases
"That place was for diehard sports fans. I only follow my team when they're in the playoffs" - Homer Simpson
Join the Lacrosse community The Lacrosse Blog
by bestbostonsports on Oct 13, 2010 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions
A lot of busts on a prospect list????
Shocking..
Baseball is my preferred sport. It should be yours, too.
I'm an editor for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
by Satchel Price on Oct 13, 2010 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions
BEST PLAYER EVAR
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nMMxIAn_76g - NSFW - "Now my blood feels like it's a bubble bath and you guys look like you're made out of cotton candy and this guy's a hippo!"
by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 14, 2010 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions
In everybody's defense
Yuni gained a shit ton of weight and lost all his range. Back when this was made, he was a wiry and agile player. After a few hundred cheeseburgers he ended up being about as wiry as Pablo Sandoval.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Oct 14, 2010 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Michael Kirkman?
Why is he on this list, and especially this high? 4.7 k/9, 1.4 whip seems to be nothing special – best case scenario is he is a strong bullpen lefty.
4.7 k/9?
Try 8.93 k/9. The walks are still are high be he’s a lefty that sits 89-93 with a good slider, improving curveball and change.
"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.
by Kinslerhomer on Oct 13, 2010 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Yep, I did
Sorry for the brain-fart, Kinsler, but the point still stands – he has not improved his control, and until he does, he won’t get out of the bullpen – where he won’t be dominant enough to warrant this ranking.
by cookiedabookie on Oct 13, 2010 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions
His best case is still as a starter though
And a good one considering his K/9 and stuff. Given that, his ranking is certainly justifiable.
There were a lot of positive reports on him this year
his control was better than previous years, though still inconsistent and in need of work. He has mid-rotation potential if he can keep that control going. He’s a bit of a rotation sleeper, but will definitely contribute.
When you're drowning, you don't say 'I would be incredibly pleased if someone would have the foresight to notice me drowning and come and help me,' you just scream.
Love Kirkman
I was excited to see him here, not questioning it at all. Saw him pitch in relief after his call up and he looks really promising. Agreed that he needs to work on his control. The BA writeup stated that good hitters lay off the slider, and that’s what I saw when he walked guys in those looks. Definitely a guy you need to see pitch before weighing in.
by blackoutyears on Oct 14, 2010 10:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Also
the BA Top 20 writeup quotes a scout s saying Kirkman has better stuff for him than Holland does (credits Holland with more polish).
by blackoutyears on Oct 14, 2010 10:44 PM EDT up reply actions
How was his control better?
BB/9 went up three years in a row, with each rise in competition level
2008 – A- = 2.7 BB/9
2009 – A+, AA = 3.8 BB/9
2010 – AAA = 4.7 BB/9
What is next? A 5.7 BB/9 in the majors? He may have good stuff, but without command, he is just another bullpen arm.
by cookiedabookie on Oct 15, 2010 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm going off scouting and eyewitness reports
more than stats. As I said, his control is improving but still needs work. You looked at just BB/9 over a whole season but there’s more to his story than that:
2010 April 10.7% BB rate
May 20.2%
June 8.9%
July 9.4%
August 11%
The improvement is part of what prompted TX to call him up to Arlington.
Also, there’s this:
2006 AZL – 27.8% BB rate
2006 A – 23.3%
2007 low A – 17.9%
2007 A – 17.4%
2008 low A – 4.9% (that’s improvement, isn’t it?, but still in low A ball)
2008 A – 7.2% (promoted, kept the walk rate lower than previous year)
2009 High A – 8.9% (promoted to terrible park/league for pitchers, kept up the improved walk rate)
2009 AA – 10.3% (promoted to highest level yet, walk rate tics up, but still way better than 2006-07)
2010 – AAA – 11.9% (but with month to month improvements noted above)
Your post only told a part of the story, and a misleading part at that.
When you're drowning, you don't say 'I would be incredibly pleased if someone would have the foresight to notice me drowning and come and help me,' you just scream.
Oops, hit post too soon
and, as I said, reports from his performances over the last couple years all said his control was improving even if it slipped from time to time.
When you're drowning, you don't say 'I would be incredibly pleased if someone would have the foresight to notice me drowning and come and help me,' you just scream.
How was my post any more misleading than yours?
Your walk rates show the same thing I did. From 2008 – the first year his control wasn’t completely atrocious – to present, his control has been worse each year. Your monthly rates show nothing – he started at 10.7, ended at 11, with June and July being slightly smaller with small sample sizes.
Regardless, I made my points, you made yours, I will agree to disagree with you on this one.
by cookiedabookie on Oct 15, 2010 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Like I said
see him pitch before weighing in. You’ll probably get a chance in the ALCS as they’ve already used Holland and Rapada in the first two games.
by blackoutyears on Oct 17, 2010 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions
CJ Wilson
walks a bunch of guys but still performed like a solid #2 starter this year.
When you're drowning, you don't say 'I would be incredibly pleased if someone would have the foresight to notice me drowning and come and help me,' you just scream.
4 pitch LHP with a plus FB
The best-case scenario for someone with his skill-set is definitely not LOOGY. His placement seems fine to me. Honestly, there are some warts on everyone after the first two on this list, and especially working into the teens; I’d happily take a shot at a southpaw with a legitimate SP repertoire and virtual 1:1 K/IP ratio in that range.
Iowa
Unsurprising the I-Cubs didn’t get anyone on this list, considering the Cubs put their best high-end prospects in AA. I was hoping Jay Jackson would get a nod on the back end of the list, although with his struggles this season, that’s somewhat understandable. It’d be nice to get a report on what his specific problems were, though.
Kinda how I feel about Reno
Brandon Allen could have been squeezed onto this list, but it’s not egregious that he isn’t there.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nMMxIAn_76g - NSFW - "Now my blood feels like it's a bubble bath and you guys look like you're made out of cotton candy and this guy's a hippo!"
by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 14, 2010 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Allen
got a disappointing comment in the chat, saying that he could be pitched too and scouts don’t think he’ll hit enough for a corner. Too bad because I’ve been holding out hope for him the last couple of years.
by blackoutyears on Oct 14, 2010 10:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Gamel
Does Milwaukee have any plans for this guy? Is he going to take over for Fielder at 1B? He seems blocked right now.
I'm sure there are plans
but saying what they are would probably mean commenting on trade strategies for the off-season and other than trying to trade Fielder and/or somebody for pitching, they are mum.
Carter a litlle low
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by bestbostonsports on Oct 13, 2010 1:32 PM EDT reply actions
Why?
He’s a guy with negative value on defense and huge contact problems. I’m guessing some observers think the contact problems are bad enough that he’ll strictly end up a platoon right handed bat at 1B/LF. It that’s a reasonable outcome I can certainly see the case for at least the top 12 all being better than him.
+1
With a player like Carter, unless you can say with virtual certainty that he’s going to become one of the 10 or so best bats in MLB, it’s really tough to call him a good prospect. Anything below a .380 wOBA and he’s no more than a slightly above average player, not a star.
If there are any flaws in a player with this profile’s offensive game, you have to downgrade him substantially.
.258/.365/.529
with 31 homers. He’ll be a negative on defense and strikes out too much, but he has great on-base skills and power. I think the observers who think that probably also thought Adam Dunn would need a platoon partner too. You’d take Brett Wallace/Mat Gamel (poor man’s Chris Carters) and Jason Castro (can’t hit period) over Carter?
by PrincetonCubs on Oct 13, 2010 6:55 PM EDT up reply actions
ever seen dunn's minor league career?
.304/.425/.525
didn't say he'd be as good as Dunn
and I don’t think .284/.380/.540 for Carter’s milb career is so different as to render the comp null/void
by PrincetonCubs on Oct 13, 2010 7:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Adam Dunn...
struck out in 18% of his PAs as a minor leaguer. Chris Carter struck out in over 25% of his this past year. Chris Carter’s upside is as a very, very poor man’s Adam Dunn.
carlos pena
just sort of throwing this out there recklessly, but would what we’ve seen out of carlos pena the last couple years be a good offensive comp?
I like the Pena comp more than the Dunn one
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I'm an editor for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
by Satchel Price on Oct 14, 2010 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions
Agreed
I hate the Dunn comp for Carter. Dunn was a much better minor league player at a younger age.
by King Billy Royal on Oct 14, 2010 1:55 AM EDT up reply actions
+1
He probably doesn’t belong too much higher on this list but I think he should at least be ahead of Gamel, and probably Castro. I’ve been through this with several people on this site. I understand the knocks on Carter. It’s unlikely that he ever becomes even an average defender at any position, thus his value drops. It’s also well known that he’s gonna strike out his fair share. Nothing we haven’t known for several years. That said, people are way, way too quick to write him off as a platoon player or a guy who won’t be an impact bat. Even if he only manages to hit .240-.250 he walks enough, and has more then enough power to still OPS .850+.
I respect everyone’s opinion, and love to talk prospects, but I think people need to see him hit in person to understand. I’ve seen him 20+ times is the past 3 or so years, and the man will hit at the major league level. Watch some video. The power is huge, and for a “slugger” he has a nice and short, compact swing with a lot of bat speed.
At an .850, slugging-heavy OPS,
Carter’s about a 2-2.5 win player assuming he’s playing 1B and has a defensive value somewhere around zero to -5 (which may be charitable from what I’ve read). At .900, he’s a 3 to 3.5 win player. At .950 (top-10 or so in baseball), he’s around 4.5 WAR. In order to be a true star, he pretty much has to post OPS’s around 1.000.
That’s not out of the question, but there are very few guys I’m ever comfortable betting on to put up those kinds of lines. For the players who have to hit that well in order to be stars, it’s best to approach with caution.
Pretty sure the people who led to him being ranked #14 saw him even more than you
And did you see what he hit against RHP in AAA this year? .245/.338/.487 with a 27%+ K/AB. That’s why people think he’s a platoon bat given his position. Its not hard to find a LHH who can play 1B/COF that can hit better than that against RHP.
I've never heard him called a platoon bat
anywhere other then on this site. If you have a link to something saying this i’d like to see it, mainly because thats pretty much the first i’ve heard of that. Your trying to make a case for a platoon off of one season, his first at AAA, in which the guy managed an .825 OPS and a .242 ISO against RHP?
Look, you don’t like the guy, ok. I’m willing to bet that my 20+ times of seeing him in person is more then most here. I’m not saying that makes me right by any means, but there’s a big difference between looking up a stat line/reading a few articles and watching the guy play 150+ innings of live baseball. I’ve said this many times before, I don’t expect the guy to be a superstar. That said, I believe in his power enough to say he will have some 40+ HR seasons. That may come with 180+ K’s, but i’ll take it along with 80+ BB’s and a .240-.260 average. I have argued this over and over so I guess it’s just wait and see time. If he hits, he hits. If not, I was wrong, oh well.
You're cherrypicking one season worth of ABs against righthanders to argue that Carter is a platoon bat?
I’m no apologist for the guy, but that’s beyond ridiculous. Observed platoon splits take like 5 years to mean anything of consequence even in the majors.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Eh...
That works for lefties, where you’re talking about ~130-160 PAs over a season, but I don’t think it takes that much more than a season to notice a trend for righties against same-handed pitching. You’re talking about 75% of a guy’s season here.
that may be true
but then look at his splits for 09 then…(he also showed reverse splits early on in his minor league career, couldn’t really hit lefties)
by PrincetonCubs on Oct 15, 2010 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions
75% of a season determines a trend now?
Oh boy…
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Oct 15, 2010 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Right, because that's what I said.
I was responding to the idea that you need multiple seasons worth of splits to find a trend. 75% gets you a lot closer. Think about overall stats. When a guy hits 400 PAs, it starts to hint at significant sample sizes, while still leaving room open for a performance to be a fluke.
I think you need about a season and a half of splits against RHPs to spot a pattern that’s reflective of true talent levels.
OK, look
To find a righthander’s real platoon split against lefties in the majors, you add something like 2200 PA at a league-average split to the number that he already has. If you want the exact details on how to do this, read The Book.
That’s in the majors. 2200 PA. That’s about 14 seasons’ worth of PA against lefthanders. It is almost impossible to detect variations from the norm in righthanded hitters’ platoon splits through statistical analysis. There simply isn’t enough variance there.
Trying to do so in the minors based on a single season’s worth of minor league at-bats is beyond “bad statistics.” It’s like closing your eyes, spinning around three times, and then trying to point to your house on a tabletop map of the United States. I mean, you’d be lucky to hit the right state.
The mistake you’re making is assuming that 400 PA is a significant-yet-not-decisive sample size for all statistics. In fact, for some (like O-Swing %) it is entirely decisive, and for others (like righthanders’ platoon tendencies) it is not even remotely in the ballpark of sufficient.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
The mistake you’re making is assuming that 400 PA is a significant-yet-not-decisive sample size for all statistics. In fact, for some (like O-Swing %) it is entirely decisive, and for others (like righthanders’ platoon tendencies) it is not even remotely in the ballpark of sufficient.
Lefties and righties are completely different, though. It would be an extreme perversion of Tango’s work to apply that test as a blanket rule for splits. Performance against lefties is a collection of small samples with huge random variance, where noise can completely mask real improvement (or hint at apparent improvement when there actually is none). Over a period large enough to measure, a player’s underlying skills have unquestionably changed, either improving or declining.
Hitting against righties, though, is 75% of hitting. The sample size is grouped much closer together, meaning you get less noise corrupting your ability to make a judgment. The individual samples aren’t enough to be decisive, but they’re enough to raise legitimate red flags.
More importantly, there are splits and then there are splits. A triple-slash line from a single season against RHPs is significantly less valuable than some other pieces of information. K% and BB%, for instance, stabilize incredibly quickly. In AAA, Carter K’d in 31% of his ABs (27.4% of PAs) against righties. His numbers against lefties (while not enough for statistical significance) are substantially lower. Over nearly 400 PAs, I’m confident saying he has a real problem making contact against righties.
That's exactly what you said.
Although, it’s rather amusing that you’re trying to change your parameters to a “season and a half” and “400 PAs” now. Unfortunately, you’re still yet to get anywhere close to an adequate sample size to spot a trend in splits.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Oct 17, 2010 10:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, if we're splitting hairs...
I actually said it doesn’t take MUCH more. It does take more, but you start to see hints in a full-season’s worth of data against righties.
As I said above, certain things stabilize incredibly quickly, and it’s a severe error to write splits off as useless. They can’t be taken without a lump of salt, but for certain things they can tell you very real things about a player. Particularly when you’re dealing with several hundred PAs.
Adam Dunn...
is a perfect example of the limited value of this type of player. As an OF, he was so bad that he was a below average player in aggregate. As a 1B, he’s a 3-4 win player. Above average, but not a star. And that’s a guy with a career .384 wOBA who is easily one of the 10 or so best hitters alive.
Hyperbole much?
Who is easily one of the 10 or so best hitters alive? Do you mean one of the 10 best home run hitters?
You're right..
I should have said easily one of the 20 or so best hitters alive. Dunn’s not a top-10 guy.
He’s definitely top 20 though. He’s 15th in all of baseball in WRAA (which is park adjusted) over the past 5 years, which doesn’t include the two best years of his career.
The point is, guys like this can succeed, but they need to be flat-out awesome with the bat to be valuable. Adam Dunn swings a huge bat, and that gets you a decently above-average player as long as he never goes near an outfield. But it doesn’t get you a franchise player.
To be a franchise player with this profile, you need to put up major league lines along the lines of Travis Hafner circa 2004-2006. If you’re looking for a hall of fame-worthy career, your bat needs to reach the heights of guys like Jim Thome and Frank Thomas. A player like Chris Carter is only a top prospect if he’s a virtual lock to be one of the 20 or so best hitters in baseball. A guy who’s merely an above average hitter with Carter’s limited defensive value is nothing more than a solid role player.
I'd definitely take Gamel and Castro over him
Castro is at least a solid defensive C. If he can hit at all, he’ll have solid value. Peizynski put up 1.8 WAR this year despite a .270/.300/.388 line. I can easily envision Castro being at least that good.
Gamel is similar to Carter in terms of offensive value, but he’ll at least mash against RHP as opposed to LHP. He also doesn’t have a glaring weakness that limits his floor and ceiling as much as Carter’s contact issues.
Gamel is a power hitter...
who doesn’t really hit for tons of power? Why am I supposed to view him any more favorably? He’s a guy who will need to hit in order to have any possible value.
Does Carter have his flaws? Yup, but at least he’s shown that the power is for real on a year to year basis. I wouldn’t put him at the top of the list, but I’d certainly put him above Wallace & Gamel.
Gamel doesn't strikeout like a traditional power bat, so its unfair to pigeonhole him
He’s going to post much batting averages throughout his career than Carter will, which will allow him to post similar or better OBP numbers to Carter. The advantage in average will also allow him to post similar slugging numbers despite lesser ISOs. I feel comfortable saying the Gamel has a better chance of being a contributor than Carter does.
disagree
Carter’s BB/K across his minors career is .519. Gamel’s is .511. Their career BAs are .284 and .301, respectively. I’d be willing to bet that neither one will hit for a particularly high average or play very good defense, but Carter will provide much more value because of his vastly superior power (Gamel’s ISO across the minors: .186. Carter’s: .256.)
by PrincetonCubs on Oct 19, 2010 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd definitely take him over Wallace
Buster Posey>
"I thought he was going to punch me and I was totally accepting of it. I was planning a reason to thank him if he did." Brian Wilson on Buster Posey
If Wallace continues to have reverse platoon splits I can see it
But I like Wallace’s chance of hitting against RHP better than I do Carter’s. Carter has more upside, but Wallace is more likely to be average (and get a chance to play fulltime because of his handedness).
Well Slammy, BA apparently doesn't care about rookie prospect status loss either.
So there you go.. And now I’ll wonder why there’s no mention of Saunders then.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Oct 13, 2010 4:33 PM EDT reply actions
They've never cared about present prospect status
for league top 20s.
It’s almost as if you communicate more information by looking at everyone instead of excluding people. Weird.
Plus Me
We see to disagree a lot on things but, I ddont think I could agree more with your ideas on this topic and have said as much on here for years. One other thing that occured to me is that when you look at a prospect list that has guys who played in the bigs, like Smoak and Saunders, and guys who haven’t debuted yet is that this is EXACTLY how big league teams look at prospects. They come up and stay, and some come up and go down – it happens in fits and starts.
I just dislike the way many on here want to stop talking about a prospect onece he has played a bit and, especially when they struggle a bit in the big leagues like Smoak AKA – when talking about thier future really starts to get interesting and we have some actual, major league data to look at.
Deal with the life you’ve got. Solve the problems you have, rather than fantasizing about a life without them.
-Bill James
Cool!
I liked your M’s list too but, I still think Nick Franklin is better than you think :)
Deal with the life you’ve got. Solve the problems you have, rather than fantasizing about a life without them.
-Bill James
I think Franklin's great.
I just think he’s risky.
Morrison ahead of Smoak is interesting
I still think I’d take Smoak in the long run though I can’t argue that LoMo had the better minor and major league seasons.
Morrison's future
Smoak has the potential to be a gold glove 1B. What it Morrison’s long term position? LF or 1B? What happens to Gaby? Does Smoak become more valuable if he stays at 1B & Morrison is an OF?
The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.
1B for Morrison...
Sanchez is holding LM’s spot – I wouldn’t be shocked to see FLA float Gaby as trade-bait either this offseason or next season.
Yeah, I think this is the eventual solution
But it probably depends on whether they choose to keep Chris Coghlan in left field or send him back to the infield, either third base or second base if Uggla is dealt.
It’s either Coghlan-LF, Morrison-1B, Sanchez-traded, or Coghlan-3B, Morrison-LF, Sanchez-1B. Sanchez could be an interesting short-term solution for a team like the Pirates though.
Baseball is my preferred sport. It should be yours, too.
I'm an editor for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
by Satchel Price on Oct 14, 2010 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions
I've been saying that for over a year
You gotta LOVE Morrison’s eye at the plate. I still believe the power will come.
Agreed.
Morrison is a very good regular if the power doesn’t take a step forward, and he’s a star if it does. He might even be a tad undderated.
Baseball is my preferred sport. It should be yours, too.
I'm an editor for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
by Satchel Price on Oct 14, 2010 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions
Right now I think he can be healthy Nick Johnson
Which is a really really good player
"The A's have to be setting some record this year for simultaneously maximizing team quality and player anonymity. I guess that’s sort of their thing though." - Luke in MN
A healthy Nick Johnson is one of the best players in the game
If Morrison ends up being a .290/.400/.500 guy with above-average defense at first base.. that’s a 5-6 WAR player and the kind of guy that could win an MVP or two. And that’s the kind of guy that Nick Johnson was during the two years that he was healthy.
I’m not ready to slap that tag on him yet- I don’t know if he can bat .290 or so with consistency, I’m not sure that he’s going to put up ISO’s over .190, and I don’t know if he’ll be as good with the glove as Johnson was during his prime.
But Morrison is definitely capable of it, or possibly even a bit more. And the worst-case scenario seems to be a decent regular at this point, so the Marlins have themselves a valuable cost-controlled asset regardless of whether he takes those steps forward or not.
Baseball is my preferred sport. It should be yours, too.
I'm an editor for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
by Satchel Price on Oct 14, 2010 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Bumgarner over Ackley that is bold
and I’m ok with it
I kinda like that….
I called it - Joe Mauer's first career Home-Run at Target Field !!!
Why Oh Why did the D'Backs select A.J. Pollock over Mike Trout?
I hate Hunter Wendelstedt, you hate Hunter Wendelstedt we all hate hunter w
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Oct 15, 2010 5:24 PM EDT reply actions
don't think it was all that bold
dude had the lowest road ERA (10+ starts) in the majors, along with greater FB velocity and K rate toward the end of the season.
by TimLaser and MattyC on Oct 15, 2010 8:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Another statement that's less bold than it seems at first
It’s hard to view a scenario in which Morrison isn’t a good player, to be honest.
Baseball is my preferred sport. It should be yours, too.
I'm an editor for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
by Satchel Price on Oct 20, 2010 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions
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