Arizona Fall League Discussion - Now with Bryce Harper
by larry on Oct 12, 2010 4:16 PM EDT
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PrintThe "finishing school" for top prospects starts play today. Per usual, there are lots of good to excellent prospects on the rosters, weighted somewhat more towards the position players as teams look to limit the innings of their top pitchers. You can check out the rosters here.
The latest news is that Brett Lawrie is not going to play.
And just like last year, the Rising Stars Game on November 6 and the AFL Championship on November 20 will be live on MLB Network.
Who are some of the names you're looking forward to seeing? As a White Sox fan, I'm interested in seeing Jared Mitchell and how he's recovering from the ankle injury that sidelined him for the entire season.
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Ackley homered in his first at bat
If everybody likes you, then either no one knows anything about you, or you're dead.
I want to see how Lavarnway does
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by bestbostonsports on Oct 12, 2010 5:08 PM EDT reply actions
He's overrated
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by mathisrocks5 on Oct 12, 2010 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions
No way dude
have you ever watched him play?
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by bestbostonsports on Oct 12, 2010 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions
B-Woody is 3-3. Geeze.
Just when he was supposed to just fade into the sunset he goes 3 for 3.
Kohnfed.
couple of things on Brandon Wood
he’s always been a masher in the minors. against minor league pitching, he destroys. it’s his MAJOR league appearances that kill him. he is turning into a AAAA player in front of our eyes.
he needs a change of scenery. the Angels have no faith in him anymore. Could JJ Hoover (from the Braves) for Brandon Wood work? I think he could thrive in Atlanta as a 3B (Chipper replacement), possible LF type.
by apoxonbothyourhouses on Oct 13, 2010 1:48 AM EDT up reply actions
where you planning to play wood?
ss?
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Oct 13, 2010 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions
I don't think the Royals should do that
Obviously it depends on the quality of the arm, but Gordon is far more likely to become a high-quality regular than Wood at this point.
Baseball is my preferred sport. It should be yours, too.
I'm an editor for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
by Satchel Price on Oct 13, 2010 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Haven't read anything on Hoover.
Is he another AAAA player who could thrive on a scenery change? And I agree Wood changing teams would help him. The coaching staff has jiggled to much with his swing and mentally he is f-ed up.
Kohnfed.
by angelskid2210 on Oct 13, 2010 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Not AAAA, guy who pitched mostly in high-A this year
He was probably a tad old for the level (22, turned 23 in August) but it was just his second true minor league season (less than 5 IP in 2008). Pretty good FB with decent secondary offerings. Big body and frame without a lot of projection left. Next year in AA will tell us a lot more about whether he can be a SP, will settle into relief, or just turn into another minor league arm. Strikeouts were great in his first taste of AA, but his control was awful.
would love
to see him come home to Phoenix (grew up here) and play for the dbacks. We aren’t going anywhere and could invest 500abs in him next year. Braves are still in win mode and would have a shorter leash with him.
As an A's fan I'm mainly looking for any reason to get excited about Michael Taylor
2-4 with a HR is a nice start, but he’s going to need a monster Fall to restore some of that prospect luster.
Also it would be nice to get some newer reports about Grant Green’s defense at SS.
Another good game for Taylor.
3-4 2B, HR, BB, 2RBIs.
"Carter's 25-game hitting streak isn't any normal streak. He's 46 for 97 (.474 average) during the run, adding 16 walks and compiling 81 total bases in the process. I'm out of superlatives for what he's doing." - Kevin Goldstein
Jerry Sands
and if he can play 3b or not. Donnie baseball will get a long look at him in the field and at the plate.
raygu
www.faketeams.com
www.sbnation.com
I plan on it
Not sure of the exact timing, but likely early Nov.
Josh Vitters
Looked like he was adjusting to AA before his injury. Curious to see how he responds to the AFL.
Scott Elbert sighting!
Apparently he’s done pouting. I still like the arm.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
apparantley he had a shoulder issue
which was the reason he didnt pitch after he came back from his departure. Im curious why he left in the first place, all that has been said is ‘personal reasons’. I bet it was some sort of depression about getting bounced around….
I simply want to see what he can do with a legit shot in the majors
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Oct 14, 2010 12:46 AM EDT up reply actions
He's definitely on the wrong team if he wants a legit shot in the majors
and not the James McDonald treatment.
I am a huge Mitchell fan
I’m guessing a good AFL will have him shooting up lists.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
We're talking about Jared Mitchell here, right?
Baseball is my preferred sport. It should be yours, too.
I'm an editor for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
by Satchel Price on Oct 13, 2010 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions
actually the guy from the Mitchell report
Good legislative tools.
:)
Yeah, I caught his name in the actual FanPost after I put that up
As someone who generally roots for the Sox and Cubs, I’m trying to be hopeful that Mitchell will finally give the Sox a legitimate leadoff guy.
Baseball is my preferred sport. It should be yours, too.
I'm an editor for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
by Satchel Price on Oct 13, 2010 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions
So long as his ankle is fine
And I think he’ll provide quite a bit of power as well. Drew Stubbs with more walks is what I envision (maybe less defense in center though).
http://bullpenbanter.com/
Ah, that would be fantastic
Maybe people would stop acting like Jordan Danks is actually going to make it as a quality player then.
Baseball is my preferred sport. It should be yours, too.
I'm an editor for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
by Satchel Price on Oct 13, 2010 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions
There's a few guys I'm interested in.
Brian Broderick. Danny Guitierez. Danny Duffy. Johnny Giavotella. Of course all the Royals guys… :)
Pete Kozma. Zack Cox. Angle Beltre.
The Nationals have decided that outfielder Bryce Harper will play for the Scottsdale Scorpions of the Arizona Fall League, effective immediately, according to general manager Mike Rizzo.
Harper will be on the taxi squad, which means that he will play twice per week.
The news comes after Harper hit .319 for the Nationals in the instructional league. He also led the team in RBIs and runs scored.
Scottsdale Scorpion games just got a lot more interesting
Hopefully Harper makes it to DC before I graduate so I can see him play here.
Baseball is my preferred sport. It should be yours, too.
I'm an editor for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
by Satchel Price on Oct 13, 2010 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Potomac?
I’m not sure where that team is specifically, but it can’t be that far from you . . .and the odds are pretty good that he’ll make it there this year.
by mrkupe on Oct 13, 2010 1:37 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
35 miles away with no car?
I’d love to go.. but I also need to find friends who own cars, and those aren’t in abundance when you live in a city.
Baseball is my preferred sport. It should be yours, too.
I'm an editor for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
by Satchel Price on Oct 13, 2010 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, I've been there, long time ago
Sadly I don’t think the metro goes that far.
I’ll second the opinion below. Ask around on Federal Baseball and any other Nats sites.
by mrkupe on Oct 13, 2010 4:10 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Yeah, that seems to be a decent solution
I definitely wouldn’t want to turn down the chance to watch Harper play.
Baseball is my preferred sport. It should be yours, too.
I'm an editor for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
by Satchel Price on Oct 13, 2010 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Hang around Federal Baseball
If he’s in Potomac, best believe Nats fans will be hitting Woodbridge hard during MLB road trips.
The wait for 10/7 begins. This man is focused. Are you?
Taxi if you want to go bad enough....
Sit out on a street corner and play a banjo or hold a sign that says Ninjas kidnapped your family and you need money for karate lessons to get them back. You’ll make enough in a week or two I’m sure to pay the fare.
There's a guy in New York who holds up a sign that says
“Bradd Pitt can suck my dick. Give me money.”
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"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
I've seen it online before
but never in person. I’d require Satchel to provide a picture of him holding the sign along with the current day’s newspaper, but at that point I’d send him a couple of bucks towards cab fare. :)
http://bullpenbanter.com
I think he'll be vastly overmatched
If he isn’t, I may have to re-evaluate my opinion on Bryce Harper.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
Don't think it will be a real setback if he is
I mean, it’s not like AFL lasts very long, or cuts into critical development time elsewhere.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
I don't think it'll hurt his development
I just don’t see why they would have him compete against AA caliber talent. Leave him in the instructional league and send him to the SAL in 2011.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
Logically speaking, if it won’t hurt his development, it can only help his development then, right?
Let’s take the worst case AFL scenario, he puts together a terrible AFL with minimal extra base hits and a lot of Ks. He looks lost. What are we talking about though? 2 games per week in a 5-6 week season? That’s roughly 50 plate appearances. This way, he fails and has the entire winter to regroup then go to the SAL which should be a more accurate test for him.
What’s the worst case scenario if he continues the instructs and then hits the SAL (and not going to the AFL)? If he struggles out of the gate, there’s no time for him to regroup other than next offseason. They have to rely on the fact that they can get him out of his funk which is absolutely possible.
I think this is a smart move and it’s great for us as baseball fans.
No, that's a logical fallacy
You can put it into two buckets (‘hurting’ or ‘not hurting’), but ‘not hurting’ is not synonymous with ‘helping’. It may help him long term, or it may not have any affect on his future. I think playing in the instructional league is more likely to help his development long term because I don’t think his bat is ready for the AFL.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
I'm sure a lot of people thought the same thing when a 17 year old went to junior college with wooden bats and then destroyed all of the records for that league.
I’m not saying he’s going to dominate the AFL, but I won’t be surprised if he holds his own. I think most of the worry would be over his age, but that didn’t stop Jason Heyward from having a great rookie season. At least this way, we’ll know for sure if this kid is the real deal.
Smart move by the Nationals.
by Kenneth Arthur on Oct 14, 2010 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions
Agreed, I think it's aggressive but reasonable
Harper has defied the general expectations of the industry before, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he did again.
Baseball is my preferred sport. It should be yours, too.
I'm an editor for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
by Satchel Price on Oct 14, 2010 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions
Don't see any downside either
So far, he’s looked like a special talent, no harm in seeing what he can do now against advanced competition in this setting. Given the brevity of the AFL, and especially in his circumstances of only 2 games a week, even a “failure” isn’t going to compromise his psyche or hitting approach. If anything, one of the nitpicks on him was immaturity and ego, a small taste of failure could help center him. If he destroys the league, all the better. Either way or in between, Nats get a better idea of where he’s at and how to start him off next season.
by goldenblack on Oct 14, 2010 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't think the AFL should have much bearing on where to start him off next season
Probably start him off in low A ball regardless.
The small sample size of the AFL (especially 2 games a week) isn’t going to really “show” much, and he’s not going to develop much over the short span.
on the bright side
Some of you can feel free to start working on your book: “Bryce Harper in the AFL: The 40 ABs At Age 18 That Struck Down A Phenom”
by mrkupe on Oct 14, 2010 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Generally speaking, I agree with you on both points, but nonetheless the AFL can add a bit more context to work with. If he blends in seamlessly with the older competition in the AFL, both on and off the field, then you might be more willing to advance him up to Potomac with less extended a period of success in Hagerstown. If he bombs or you otherwise note some concerning flaws now, might give more credence to holding him back in extended spring training for an extra month or two in 2011 (like Singleton this year) if you’re still not completely satisfied with what you’re seeing then.
you really think they'd hold Harper back in XST?
If they even have to think about doing that (unless he is injured), that’s a big red flag that he was not the right guy for them to pick at No. 1.
Wasn't a prediction
I’m not saying I expect it by any means; that said, sure, why isn’t it a possibility, without necessarily being a strike against him as a prospect? Maybe he struggles in the AFL, then reports next year and coaches still think something is just a bit off. Perhaps they think he needs to shorten his load, perhaps he’s taking poor routes to the ball in the field and needs some further coaching, perhaps he enters camp with an attitude and sense of entitlement.
Kid will only be 18, and already has the hopes of an entire fanbase, that just saw ESPN hype him as baseball’s Lebron, pinned on him, especially after the Strasburg injury. If you see a few niggling concerns you want to smooth out, why not play it safe and hold him back for a few weeks while you address them quietly before thrusting him out there to be the most watched 18 year old in low A ever? I point again to Jonathan Singleton as an example; a team can want to hold a guy back briefly to quickly polish a few areas without it being an indictment on their potential or his chances for success. Not predicting it, just saying, who knows?
you provided one reason why it would be a strike against him
“perhaps he enters camp with an attitude and sense of entitlement.”
Not what I meant
Sigh… I mean, technically yes, but I meant strike more as something that makes you go “Wow, this guy definitely isn’t what I thought he was 6 months ago” and would entail a major overhaul or change to get past. Like, he has the breaking ball recognition of Pedro Cerrano, looks like Matt Stairs in his 30s trying to shag flies, or comes into practice fresh off a bender every day. A simple inflated head I don’t think would cause anyone to reconsider his potential and realistic projection, but could be worth addressing by say holding him briefly back in a controlled environment to work on work habits and put him in his place. Again, these aren’t predictions, and we’re veering a bit off course; I was just theorizing how the AFL could, under both positive and negative circumstances, help inform (not solely decide, just inform) decisions of how to handle Harper, or any prospect for that matter, much less one that is going to be under a spotlight with probably unreasonable expectations (by the general baseball public and especially Washington fanbase, as opposed to the type of people likely posting here).
I wasn't suggesting it was a prediction.
You’re suggesting it’s a possibility, and I disagree.
You said that he could struggle and it wouldn’t be a strike against him . . .and then you proceeded to list off a bunch of things that would clearly be strikes against him were they to be true. If he looks awful against breaking balls, that’s not good. If his defense is terrible, not good. It obviously wouldn’t make him a bad prospect, but you don’t draft 17 year old corner outfielders who are defensive albatrosses or dead red hitters at No. 1 and then proceed to give them a record amount of money.
And I’m pretty sure Bryce Harper is coming to Nationals camp next year with a sense of entitlement, ego aside. The Nationals certainly seem to want to entitle him . . .he’s in the AFL at age 18, ahead of lots of other players who could have had that slot. It’s not even necessarily a bad thing – there have been plenty of players who thought very highly of who they were and what they deserved and yet were highly dedicated both to their work and to their teammates.
Gah, you’re missing my point. Ok, trying again. Above, the breaking ball thing or comp to Matt Stairs were things I WOULD consider strikes against, in comparison to very simple mechanical tweaks (shorten his stride, adjust batting grip, whatever), or roughness in taking routes to balls in the OF as a result of being new to the position (not range or instincts), I think, theoretically, he could need the latter, it wouldn’t affect my impression of him as a prospect, and it would be entirely reasonable to hold him back for a few weeks until coaches were comfortable.
Harper is pretty much unlike any other prospect we’ve yet seen, except for maybe Strasburg. He’s gotten ridiculous amounts of hype, and at 18 is basically expected to be rocket through the system and be a savior for a (to date) bad franchise in a fairly large market, especially on the heels of Strasburg’s injury. Harper is going to be under a spotlight once he hits full-season ball; Nats are going nowhere in the next couple years, why on earth shouldn’t they take a few weeks to deal with any minor adjustments they might perceive beneficial, set him up for success, before tossing him into the fire? For instance, hypothetically, if he’s uncomfortable in the outfield starting out, but shows good raw range and of course the plus arm, would you really write him off as legitimate #1 pick just because the Nats wanted to take a few extra weeks to make sure he was more comfortable in the field, as opposed to possibly starting off slow at the plate while acclimatizing and then getting in a slump that snowballs with all the expectations heaped on him?
Again, I’m not predicting this, nor do I have any specific criticisms against Harper right now. But going back to the initial point of what the AFL can do for him, it gives the Nats more information to work with. If he rakes, then you factor that into your criteria of how much you need to see next year before a promotion, if he has a few issues in the AFL and shows them again when he reports next year, then yeah, why not give him a bit of extra coaching and make sure he’s ready to go? Extended spring training is not a death sentence or condemnation of a prospect, much less a teenager in his first year of pro ball.
Derek Norris 10/12
1-2, 2R, 2RBI, HR, 2BB, K
The wait for 10/7 begins. This man is focused. Are you?
Keith Law Spluged all over Kelly
Good velocity and command on the fastball, great arm action on change up (though not fantastic separation on speed), inconsistent but promising 2 plane curveball.
I really think a lot of people here and elsewhere are way too down on this kid. He’s 20 a year removed from splitting time at short, saw his fastball velocity jump 2-3 mph over the past 12 months and still gets good scouting reports. Additionally his K/BB rates were virtually identical to Andrew Brackam who everyone seems to be excited about again (and while he’s a legit prospect, he’s 24 and was in the same level as Kelly).
Assuming he stays healthy (often a foolish assumption for young pitchers) I wouldn’t be surprised to seem him shoot up the ranks next year.
Except Brackman has a higher ceiling than Kelly.
And has shown signs of trying to get there. Sicne he’s 24 he can be mvoed up quickly.
MLB Network
I understood only showing two games last year, in their first year, but I expected a lot more out of them this season than just two games.
Wouldn't it take away screen time from Kevin Millar MLB tonight reruns?
Or Prime 9 blooper lists? The agony!
The wait for 10/7 begins. This man is focused. Are you?
by souldrummer on Oct 15, 2010 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions
I think the problem is
Broadcasting games costs money, and it might just not make financial sense for them to do so just to satisfy the relatively small group of people who would interested in watching these games. If anything, I’d say it’s appreciated that they’ll be showing the games that they ARE showing, most likely because they are games with added importance.
I mean, look at how many people actually go to the AFL . . .not all that many. The folks at the MLB Network would probably be up for an increased presence at the AFL if they think they can make a better profit on that investment than just running a rerun of a show (which costs them nothing, obviously). It’s going to be up to the fanbase to do the work of justifying the expense. Telling them that you’d really love to scout for your fantasy baseball team isn’t enough – it needs to be a bigger, more organized effort.
they showed a bunch of minor league game this year...
like low A games….AFL especially with Harper involved, has to be more of a draw
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Oct 21, 2010 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions
i don't remember this
and some minor league teams already broadcast their games and mlb network probably just aired those.
thats a possibility...i remember watching wil myers on there twice....
and there were other low level games that i didnt have any interest in b/c i didnt know many of the guys
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Oct 21, 2010 5:59 PM EDT up reply actions
it does?
Maybe his first game would have been interesting, but that’s about it.
There are a number of minor league teams that broadcast their games in local markets; I don’t believe MLB Network has any great desire to randomly sent a team to put together a professional-caliber production at a cost that will never justify its expense.
harper is one of the few minor league players that the average baseball fan knows
he’s young, he hits homers, he says crazy things. he’s more of a draw than 99% of the other guys playing out there
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Oct 22, 2010 8:56 AM EDT up reply actions
which is to say not really a draw at all.
harper isn’t a pitcher. there aren’t going to be many people interested in watching a random AFL game to see harper bat 4 times.
Ackley
Sprained finger trying to make a catch and will be out for a couple weeks.
http://heraldnet.com/article/20101013/BLOG05/101019932
The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.
Well that sucks.
Doesn’t hurt his long-term prospects much if at all, but I was looking forward to watching Ackley destroy the AFL this year.
Interesting tidbit from Law
Astros RHP David Carpenter, acquired from St. Louis for Pedro Feliz, was 91-95 last inning and struck out Brandon Belt looking.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
It was a favor and a half from the Redbirds
With Carpenter being the extra half. It’s starting to look like he may actually be a useful half, too!
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
Monkey Epoxy's post
No posting stuff behind the subscriber wall here. Since your post was about what Keith Law said about Engel Beltre, here’s the non-subscriber content:
“As if life wasn’t good enough for the Texas Rangers, it looks like outfielder Engel Beltre, the main return in the 2007 Eric Gagne trade, is turning the corner and establishing himself as a serious prospect after two largely lost years as a teenager in low- and high-A ball.
Beltre still doesn’t have great plate discipline, but his swing and body have progressed nicely since last year and he has plus bat speed. He gets his weight back well and loads his hips, creating excellent rotation and leverage as he brings his weight forward with his swing. He loads his hands a little deep, almost (but not quite) barring his lead arm. He’s an above-average runner with an above-average to plus arm and should be able to stay in center field."
Montgomery is 92-94 with a hand full of 95's and a 96 so far
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
http://twitter.com/doublestix
wow
struck out brandon belt twice, once looking
gave up a hr to charlie culberson, but he’s been swinging a hot bat
by TimLaser and MattyC on Oct 18, 2010 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions
bryce harper first at bat
pop out to short stop… what a failure..
they wasted the number 1 pick on a .250 hitter?
Who ever heard of the Cubs losing a game they had to have? Frank Chance 1908
250 hitter who will hit 112 homers/year
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Oct 22, 2010 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Charlie Culberson
.538/.571/.962/1.533, 2 HR, 5 2B, 2 BB, 5 SO in 6 games
Sustainable. SSS be damned!!!
by TimLaser and MattyC on Oct 22, 2010 4:51 PM EDT reply actions
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