Top 50 Pitching Prospects for 2010, in Review
by John Sickels on Oct 12, 2010 2:01 PM EDT
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PrintEvery year in my book, I review the Top 50 Pitching and Top 50 Hitting prospects from the previoous year, to see how the list came out and help me improve subsequent lists. Here is the report on the 2010 list. Please remember this was the PRE-SEASON list, published in my book this past February.
The 2011 Baseball Prospect Book is now available for pre-order. It will ship the last week of January 2011.
Top 50 Pitching Prospects for 2010
1) Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Nationals: 2.91 ERA in the majors, 92/17 K/BB in 68 innings, 56 hits. Outstanding before his elbow blew out.
2) Neftali Feliz, RHP, Rangers: 2.73 ERA, 71/18 K/BB in 69 innings, 40 saves in the majors. Only question now is long-term role.
3) Brian Matusz, LHP, Orioles: 10-12, 4.30 ERA, 143/63 K/BB in 176 innings, 173 hits in the majors. Turned things around after a rough start, and should continue to improve.
4) Jeremy Hellickson, RHP, Rays: 2.72 ERA, 127/37 K/BB in 119 innings in Triple-A, 3.47 ERA with 33/8 K/BB in 36 innings in the majors. It is no fluke; he's excellent.
5) Wade Davis, RHP, Rays: 12-10, 4.07 with 113/62 K/BB in 168 innings in the majors, 165 hits. Solid pitcher, and should continue to improve.
6) Aroldis Chapman, LHP, Reds: 3.57 ERA, 125/52 K/BB in 96 innings, 77 hits in Triple-A. 2.03 ERA, 19/5 K/BB in 13 innings in the majors. He'll need a few command refinements if used as a starter, but that 105 MPH fastball could make him the Cuban Randy Johnson.
7) Martin Perez, LHP, Rangers: 5.96 ERA, 101/50 K/BB in 100 innings in Double-A, 117 hits. He was too young for this level at age 19.
8) Madison Bumgarner, LHP, Giants: 3.00 ERA, 86/26 K/BB in 111 major league innings, 119 hits. Should continue to improve barring injury.
9) Christian Friedrich, LHP, Rockies: 5.05 ERA, 78/35 K/BB in 87 innings, 100 hits in Double-A. Bothered by elbow problems, will have to see if that becomes a bigger issue and drops stock further.
10) Casey Crosby, LHP, Tigers: Limited to just 12 innings of rehab work in rookie ball due to more elbow problems for this Tommy John survivor. Status unclear right now.
11) Tanner Scheppers, RHP, Rangers: 5.48 ERA with 71/30 K/BB in 69 innings in Triple-A, 82 hits allowed. I love the strikeouts, but he was really awful late in the season and I'm wondering about him right now.
12) Chris Withrow, RHP, Dodgers: 5.97 ERA with 120/69 K/BB in 130 innings in Double-A, 146 hits. Still very young and has good stuff, but command issues and poor late-season performance dropped his stock.
13) Jenry Mejia, RHP, Mets: Handled stupidly by the Mets, 4.62 ERA with 22/20 K/BB in 39 pointless relief innings in the majors, 46 hits. Posted 1.28 ERA in 42 minor league innings at four levels. I still like him despite these WTF decisions by the team.
14) Matt Moore, LHP, Rays: 3.36 ERA with 208/61 K/BB in 145 innings in High-A Florida State League, 109 hits. Led minors in strikeouts, H/IP also excellent, posted 92/13 K/BB in last 59 innings.
15) Drew Storen, RHP, Nationals: 3.58 ERA with 52/22 K/BB in 55 major league innings, 48 hits. Should have a very good career going forward.
16) Mike Montgomery, LHP, Royals: 2.61 ERA with 88/31 K/BB in 93 innings on the season, including four starts in High-A, 13 in Double-A, and three rookie ball rehab starts. Remains a strong prospect, just needs to stay healthy.
17) Zach Stewart, RHP, Blue Jays: 3.63 ERA with 106/54 K/BB in 136 innings in Double-A, 131 hits. I thought he'd do better, but it was still a good season.
18) Kyle Drabek, RHP, Blue Jays: 2.94 ERA, 132/68 K/BB in 162 innings in Double-A, 126 hits. Looked good in three major league starts although he lost all three.
19) Jacob Turner, RHP, Tigers: 3.67 ERA, 51/9 K/BB in 54 innings Low-A Midwest League, 2.93 ERA with 51/14 K/BB in 61 innings in High-A Florida State League. Very fine season overall.
20) Tyler Matzek, LHP, Rockies: 2.92 ERA with 88/62 K/BB in 89 innings in Low-A Sally League, 62 hits. Both stuff quality and command were erratic; walks have to come down.
21) Jordan Lyles, RHP, Astros: 3.12 ERA with 115/35 K/BB in 127 innings in Double-A, 5.40 ERA with 22/11 K/BB in 32 innings in Triple-A. Throws strikes, very efficient, young for the levels.
22) Casey Kelly, RHP, Red Sox: 5.31 ERA with 81/35 K/BB in 95 innings in Double-A, 118 hits. He throws strikes, but this was an unimpressive season otherwise, though he was young for level at 20.
23) Jhoulys Chacin, RHP, Rockies: 3.28 ERA, 138/61 K/BB in 137 innings in the majors, 114 hits. Very successful rookie season that deserved more attention than it received.
24) Dan Hudson, RHP, White Sox: 3.47 ERA, 108/31 K/BB in 93 Triple-A innings, 2.45 ERA with 82/27 K/BB in 95 major league innings, 68 hits. Inexplicably traded from Chicago to Arizona, a move that the White Sox are likely to regret in coming years.
25) Jake Arrieta, RHP, Orioles: 4.66 ERA with 52/48 K/BB in 100 major league innings, 106 hits. It may take a little time, but I expect him to improve.
26) Simon Castro, RHP, Padres: 3.28 ERA with 113/42 K/BB in 140 innings between Double-A and Triple-A, 123 hits. Will need more Triple-A time but still on course.
27) Wilmer Font, RHP, Rangers: 4.35 ERA with 85/45 K/BB in 79 innings between Low-A and High-A, 73 hits. Command is an issue, season ended early with elbow trouble.
28) Julio Teheran, RHP, Braves: 2.59 ERA, 159/40 K/BB in 143 innings between Low-A, High-A, and Double-A, 108 hits. Now one of the best pitching prospects in baseball.
29) Zach Britton, LHP, Orioles: 2.70 ERA, 124/51 K/BB in 153 innings in Double-A and Triple-A, 139 hits, 2.80 GO/AO. I like this one a lot.
30) Ethan Martin, RHP, Dodgers: 6.35 ERA with 105/81 K/BB in 113 innings in High-A California League, 120 hits. Command issues and regression in secondary pitches hurt him.
31) Alex White, RHP, Indians: 2.45 ERA with 117/46 K/BB in 151 innings between High-A Carolina League and Double-A, 1.91 GO/AO, 123 hits. Developing nicely.
32) Hector Rondon, RHP, Indians: 8.53 ERA with 33/10 K/BB in 32 innings in Triple-A, gave up 48 hits and 12 homers. Had Tommy John surgery.
33) Jon Niese, LHP, Mets: 4.20 ERA with 148/62 K/BB in 174 major league innings, 192 hits. He's not a star but I don't see any reason why he can't be a useful pitcher for a long time.
34) Alexander Colome, RHP, Rays: 3.89 ERA with 126/45 K/BB in 118 innings, 103 hits in 22 Low-A and one High-A start. Coming along well.
35) Arodys Vizcaino, RHP, Braves: 2.74 ERA with 79/12 K/BB in 85 innings, 79 hits between Low-A and High-A. Missed middle of season with elbow issues but surgery avoided.
36) Jay Jackson, RHP, Cubs: 4.63 ERA with 119/48 K/BB in 157 innings in Triple-A, 153 hits. Erratic season, very good at times, poor at others.
37) Andrew Cashner, RHP, Cubs: 2.05 ERA with 59/15 K/BB in 57 innings in Double-A and Triple-A, 4.80 ERA with 50/30 K/BB in 54 innings in the majors. Command was good in the minors, not so good in the majors, should improve eventually.
38) Mike Leake, RHP, Reds: 4.23 ERA with 91/49 K/BB in 138 major league innings, 158 hits. Very credible considering he had no minor league experience. Late-season arm woes will have to be watched.
39) Aaron Miller, LHP, Dodgers: 2.92 ERA with 99/48 K/BB in 102 innings in High-A Cal League, 76 hits. 7.04 ERA with 22/18 K/BB in 23 innings in Double-A, 28 hits. Will try again at Double-A in '11. Has the stuff if command is there.
40) Michael Bowden, RHP, Red Sox: 3.66 ERA with 77/37 K/BB in 106 Triple-A innings, 84 hits. Converted to bullpen, 4.70 ERA with 13/4 K/BB in 15 major league innings, 20 hits. Maybe I'm stubborn but I think he will surprise people soon, in a positive way.
41) Brandon Erbe, RHP, Orioles: 5.73 ERA with 50/22 K/BB in 71 innings in Triple-A, 86 hits. Ugly numbers, season ended early with shoulder problems. Status unclear.
42) Aaron Crow, RHP, Royals: 5.66 ERA with 90/59 K/BB in 119 innings in Double-A, 130 hits. Sent back to High-A, remained shaky with 5.93 ERA, 51 hits in 44 innings, but a 53/9 K/BB. Showed good stuff but feel for pitching was less than expected.
43) Wynn Pelzer, RHP, Padres: 4.25 ERA with 103/63 K/BB in 114 Double-A innings, 126 hits. Converted to relief and traded to Orioles. I still like his stuff.
44) Tim Melville, RHP, Royals: 4.97 ERA, 90/54 K/BB in 112 innings in High-A Carolina League, 101 hits. Not a good season, still interesting but passed by other pitchers in deep KC system.
45) Randall Delgado, RHP, Braves: 2.76 ERA, 120/32 K/BB in 117 innings in High-A Carolina League, 4.74 ERA with 42/20 K/BB in 44 innings in Double-A. Command slipped at higher level, but still a good year.
46) Zack Wheeler, RHP, Giants: 3.99 ERA, 70/38 K/BB in 59 innings, 47 hits in Low-A Sally League, 2.61 GO/AO. Kept on a tight leash, needs to improve command, but strikeout/grounder combination is very promising.
47) Shelby Miller, RHP, Cardinals: 3.62 ERA, 140/33 K/BB in 104 innings, 97 hits in Low-A Midwest League. Excellent component ratios with plus stuff, developing very well.
48) Chad James, LHP, Marlins: 5.12 ERA, 105/65 K/BB in 114 innings in Low-A Sally League, 116 hits. Command needs considerable work at this point.
49) Craig Kimbrel, RHP, Braves: 1.62 ERA with 83/35 K/BB in 56 innings in Triple-A, 23 saves. 0.44 ERA with 40/16 K/BB in 21 major league innings. He walks a lot of guys, but his K/IP and H/IP are outstanding.
50) Trevor Reckling, LHP, Angels: 8.53 ERA, 46/50 K/BB in 70 Triple-A innings, 99 hits. Sent back to Double-A, 4.56 ERA with 62/35 K/BB in 79 innings, 74 hits. His command just collapsed at the higher level.
Overall, I think both the hitter and pitcher lists for 2010 came out pretty well. I hope the '11 lists are as successful.
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Martin Perez...
I’m not sure it’s possible for me to like a pitching prospect more. The only thing that sucks is that he’s so young anything can happen.
The really cool thing about pitchers is that you don’t really see what they are until their late 20’s if they manage to stay healthy.
Speaking of Perez...
does any pitching in the minor leagues get extension in his follow through better than this guy? Very Cliff Lee-esque…and ugh that’s a comp we’re going to hear for any decent lefty prospect now.
He's fun
I love his mechanics, his attitude and stuff… Now he just has to put it together with a little more comman, control and composure. Even with the high ERA, you have to like alot of the things Perez showed this year at AA level at 19… This coming year should be a likely breakout year possibly putting him in the Majors in 2012
The Ranger's will win the AL pennant by 2013
it'll be interesting to see where they start him
It wasn’t a great year, obviously. The stuff is obviously impressive, but the command and consistency is what you would expect of somebody with his experience level. I saw a lot of subpar curveballs out of him, but I saw one or two that would have graded as 70s if he could throw it consistently. His changeup was better, with a number that were just plain astonishing, and then some that didn’t quite get down. The fastball velocity looks good, 92-93 MPH and can jump a bit higher than that. Hopefully they slow down his development track and let him work on the consistency, because the raw material to be outstanding is clearly there. I liked his poise on the mound too, the way he’d think things through on the mound. It’s one of those little things that you don’t see in every pitcher, especially one who is placed in such a difficult situation.
Drake Britton will make this list next year
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by bestbostonsports on Oct 12, 2010 2:24 PM EDT reply actions
Here's hoping, bbs
I like what I’ve seen in video. You’ve seen him in person I take it?
by blackoutyears on Oct 19, 2010 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Bumgarner
FB settled at 92-95 last night. He sure was amped up, considering he was pitching a series-clinching game against his childhood team.
6 IP, 6 H, 2 R, BB, 5 K, HR, and a W for the series win. And he just turned 21.
by TimLaser and MattyC on Oct 12, 2010 2:41 PM EDT reply actions
Is there anything about Matt Moore that doesn't make him "elite"
The numbers are scary good, was he helped by anything such as league/competition? Because if not, he seems like one of those pitching prospects that doesn’t come around very often.
moore
i love moore. i don’t know why he doesnt’ get more attention
by John Sickels on Oct 12, 2010 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Its two things...
Command, though he did a good job allaying concerns about that in the second half, and projection. The question is whether or not his combination of pitches will really succeed at the higher levels. I haven’t seen him personally, so I can’t really judge how much truth there is to that concern, that said…striking out a ton of guys in the low minors doesn’t always correlate to big league success (just look at some of the record setters that Moore either toppled this year, or came close to).
Now writing for BaseballInstinct.com
by Franchise887 on Oct 12, 2010 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions
+1
I love Moore too and could see him up at #3 behind Hellickson (if he still qualifies) and Teheran. Does anyone have any recent scouting reports for Moore, iirc some of the doubters suggested that his curve would be less effective as he moved up and he was just abusing hitters in the low minors who generally have an immature approach.
Also, to below, I like Delgado a lot and would probably have him ~around the top 5.
Anyone have any thoughts on how the top 10 might shape up? There looks to be a lot of movement from last year’s list.
by i r noobie on Oct 12, 2010 6:07 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Unfair.
That is, Tampa and Braves pitching staffs. If the Rays join the Braves on winter vacation tonight, don’t fret for either of these teams.
They’ve both got lots of pitching talent at every level from the low minors to the big league clubs. Scary good.
by Kenneth Arthur on Oct 12, 2010 7:34 PM EDT up reply actions
I think the questions have mostly been answered
Very elite. The only marks against him are his control & command and that he was pitching in the FSL.
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Moore is great too
I think the real reason he gets overshadowed is the organization he’s in. So many great cost-controlled arms. In reality, even though he’s behind them on the depth chart, he would still be the best pre-arbitration arm in many organizations.
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Delgado...
Seemed to figure out AA his last month there. His first five starts were kind of “meh”, but he finished the year with a three starts which combined for 18.2 IP, 21 Ks, 4 BBs, 11 hits. He gets overlooked because of Teheran, but I really wouldn’t be all that surprised if Delgado ends up having the better career of the two.
Now writing for BaseballInstinct.com
Really love what Chacin did this season
Drafted him over Brett Anderson a couple years ago and I’m as big a BA fan as you’ll find. Just love the stuff.
Also now firmly on the Moore bandwagon with daveh.
"The A's have to be setting some record this year for simultaneously maximizing team quality and player anonymity. I guess that’s sort of their thing though." - Luke in MN
by hero66 on Oct 12, 2010 6:48 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Comparing the two lists
Do you feel equally satisfied with both lists? Obviously, more of the hitters had good years than pitchers; just as obviously, though, both lists turned out quite well, and it’s perfectly normal that more pitchers were lost to injury attrition than hitters. You’ve said, however, that you often tend to do better at predicting pitchers than hitters. Was that true this time around?
sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew
dunno
It really is too early to tell…have to check back in five years.
Generally, though, given the attrition rate with pitchers, I am happier with a strong pitcher list than a strong hitter list.
by John Sickels on Oct 13, 2010 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions
I really enjoy the 5-year retrospectives. I guess I’ll have to check back in 2015!
sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew
by alexwithclass on Oct 13, 2010 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Braves
Not a bad list—Braves’ fans can be happy with not only 4 ot the top 50, but the performances of Brandon Beachy and Mike Minor. It will be interesting to see their positions on the list for 2011 and watch out for Steven Kent!
by Stephen in the UAE on Oct 13, 2010 8:45 AM EDT reply actions
Odorizzi
Jake Odorizzi makes this list the next time around.
Mejia
Harsh. Just being contrary, but might Mejia have benefited from getting a taste of big league action? He certainly dominated on his return to the minors. Think of it as a Sept. call in April. :P
A lot of people are going to look silly for being down on Casey Kelly
At 20 years of age, he did get hit hard in AA. However, despite his youth for the league, he did manage a very respectable K/BB ratio. On top of that, his velocity has made up a lot of ground compared to last season. Just this week he hit 95 in the AFL and sat between 92-94 over the course of the game.
Keith Law seemed pretty high on him too as did Kevin Goldstien.
If Boston had kept him in high A and he crushed it for half the year and struggled a bit upon promotion, folks would probably still be high on the guy- which makes little sense to me.
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