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Florida Marlins Top 20 Prospects for 2010

 

Top 20 Florida Marlins Prospects for 2010

All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don't get too worried about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get beyond the Top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you want to emphasize. Complete reports on these and over 1,000 other players will be in the 2010 Baseball Prospect Book, now available for pre-order, shipping on February 2nd

Star-divide

1) Mike Stanton, OF, Grade A-: The strikeouts are worrisome, yes, but he's only 20 years old and hit 16 homers in half-a-season of Double-A ball. Upside: 40-homer production for years. Downside: he loses the strike zone and ends up like Jeff Francoeur.

2) Logan Morrison, 1B, Grade B+.  I still love this guy. Tremendous improvement with his strike zone judgment stands out, and power slippage is likely attributable to hand injury.

3) Matt Dominguez, 3B, Grade B. Defensive raves continue, but the bat didn't look as good in the more difficult Florida State League. Will struggle if rushed, they need to give him 900 at-bats in the upper minors.

4) Chad James, LHP, Grade B: Has B+/A- potential but would like to see some professional data first.

5) Ryan Tucker, RHP, Grade B: Gets an injury mulligan and the same grade as last year. I love his stuff, still worry about command. Downgrade to B- considered, but at least it was a knee injury and not an elbow or shoulder.

6) Gaby Sanchez, 1B, Grade C+: Age 26 limits his upside, but should be a solid hitter to hold down first base until Morrison is ready.

7)  Scott Cousins, OF, Grade C+: Tools are underrated, does a lot of things well, plate discipline is sketchy however. Could be perfect fourth outfielder.

8) Bryan Petersen, OF, Grade C+: Similar to Cousins, not as athletic but with better plate discipline.

9) Kyle Skipworth, C, Grade C+: Borderline C. VERY difficult to grade. His performance has been horrible, but he was so good in high school and at age 20 it is too soon to give up on him. However, one more season like this one and people will be heading to the exits.

10) Jake Smolinski, 3B-2B, Grade C+. This bat has considerable potential, however he is apparently injury-prone and still looking for a position.

11) Jhan Marinez, RHP, Grade C: borderline C+. Excellent arm, could dominate in the pen if command comes around.

12) Issac Galloway, OF, Grade C: Great tools, no performance yet.

13) Brad Hand, LHP, Grade C: Pitched better in second half, may need more time as a cold-weather high school guy.

14) Garrett Parcell, RHP, Grade C: Could contribute in the bullpen quite soon if he proves durability.

15) Chris Leroux, RHP, Grade C: Another possible middle relief arm.

16) Steve Cishek, RHP, Grade C: Like Parcell and Leroux, he can help in the pen.

17) Arquimedes Caminero, RHP, Grade C: Powerful Dominican bullpen arm hit 98 in the New York-Penn League but has control issues.

18) Ramon Benjamin, LHP: Another NY-P pitcher with plus stuff but command issues.

19) Marcell Ozuna, OF, Grade C: Big numbers in the Gulf Coast League from a potential power hitter, but need more data from higher levels.

20) Tom Koehler, RHP, Grade C: Looks like a potential inning-eater type.

OTHERS (Grade C): Pete Andrelczyk, RHP; Bryan Berglund, RHP, Jay Buente, RHP; Jose Ceda, RHP; Marquis Cooper, OF; Rodolfo Encarnacion, RHP; Josh Hodges, RHP; Dan Jennings, LHP; Kyle Jensen, OF: Jorge Jimenez, 3B; Graham Johnson, RHP; Kyle Kaminska, RHP; Brent Keys, OF; Jai Miller, OF; Edgar Olmos, LHP; Curtis Petersen, RHP; A.J. Ramos, RHP; Graham Taylor, RHP; Elih Villanueva, RHP; Jay Voss, LHP.

This system doesn't have as much depth as I thought it did.

Beginning with the hitters, you have Mike Stanton, who has the tools to be a superstar but also has the potential to crash and burn badly if he's rushed too fast. He needs another 300 at-bats in Double-A, and 400 in Triple-A, before being pushed to the majors. He has All-Star upside, but he still has flaws in his game that could prevent his talent from fully coming through if he's not handled properly.

Morrison may be a notch overrated at A- and I'm going to sleep on that grade. Dominguez should be a solid regular although I'm doubt at this point he'll hit enough to be a genuine star. Sanchez, Cousins, and Petersen all look like they could be useful role players, but none of them project as stars. I don't know what the hell to make of Skipworth at this point. After that there are some tools guys but no one I'm really wild about, though Smolinski could surprise if he can stay healthy.

The pitching features Chad James as the headliner, a possible number two starter if he reaches his ceiling. After that it thins out fast. There are a large number of potential bullpen arms, beginning with future closer Ryan Tucker and a boatload of potential setup men with good arms. But other than maybe Brad Hand, I don't see a lot of potential starting pitchers on the horizon.

Although things look thin with this current list, some of the Grade Cs have the potential to improve, and they graduated considerable talent to the majors last year. They've recharged before and they'll do so again. It will be interesting to see what approach they take in the '10 draft, and if the resolution of the stadium situation opens the pocketbook for player development a bit more.

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Comments

Display:

Chad James...

has excellent stuff and I still like him better than Matzek.

Stanton scares me. Should end up a good player, but one that causes alot of arguments as to just how good he is.

They’re really lucky they have so much young ML talent because this system kinda sucks.

by SenorGato on Jan 10, 2010 12:09 AM EST reply actions  

Unlike Francoeur

Stanton can still take a walk.

JOSH THOLE > carlos santana

by Dewey Finn on Jan 10, 2010 12:50 AM EST reply actions  

Unlike Francoeur

Stanton is already having trouble with strikeouts in AA. Actually Francoeur has never really had a problem with strikeouts, even in the majors he’s kept it below 20% for his career. Probably not the best comp, but I understand what John is getting at. Stanton’s the type of guy that may get eaten up by more advanced pitching once they get a feel for his strengths and weaknesses.

by nixa37 on Jan 10, 2010 12:40 PM EST up reply actions  

But Stanton is still way ahead in the true outcomes

Strikeouts are the least meaningful of the three true outcomes, especially when the other two are already so polished. Stanton is almost like the opposite of Jeff Francoeur at this point. His power is much better and he walks, but he needs to put the ball in play more to reach his potential. I don’t mind an A- grade for him, but if that’s what he gets, he’s probably the best of the A- group IMO.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Jan 11, 2010 2:13 PM EST up reply actions  

whoa

A- for Morrison? I like him, but A-? For a first baseman, I would want to see that power before committing. I’m actually not sold the hand injury played as big a factor (I’m sure it was a factor, just an issue of degree here that I am questioning) as some suggest – he had a really hot streak in July, power wise, before settling back down in August. I expect him to show a bit more power than he had this year, but A-? I mean, you could see June as a down month because he was working to find his rhythm again, and maybe you could make a case that his late season slide might’ve been some fatigue of some sort, but I still don’t see an A- type talent.

I want to clear – I’m not challenging Morrison’s talent, here, or in the community prospects thread. I think he’s a very solid prospect (I just prefer Friedrich to him in the CP List). I’m also not sure that, as a 1st baseman, he’s A- worthy.

by toonsterwu on Jan 10, 2010 1:21 AM EST reply actions  

+1

times a million. Don’t think Morrison is worth the A- at this point.

Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson

by gore51 on Jan 10, 2010 2:00 AM EST up reply actions  

I'm not saying it is or isn't justified, but it's not out of line with the CP voting

Morrison seems to be the favorite for #21 in the CP voting. I count 14 A and A- ratings from John with five teams left — Seattle, Tampa Bay, Colorado, Houston and Cincinnati. The community has voted Jennings, Ackley, Hellickson and Friedrich from those systems on before Morrison. John did say he’s a borderline B+, so at worst he’s a tick too high.

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Jan 10, 2010 3:18 AM EST up reply actions  

Curious...

If you knew a prospect would develop a stat line like Youkilis, what grade would you give him? So a 300+ AVG, close to a 400 OBA, and 500+ slug. I don’t really have an answer to that, but I think there’s evidence to support predicting that kind of stat line for Morrison.

Given the growing legend of his BP power nearly rivaling Stanton, could he alter his hitting approach and push his power numbers even higher?

I think he’s more of a B+, if for no other reason than I’d like to see that power develop, but I think one might be able to make a case for A-.

Poster formerly known as artie

by beastball on Jan 10, 2010 9:23 AM EST up reply actions  

A

If you KNEW you were getting that type of hitter. He’d be a better bet than Matusz as a high floor type, and he got the A.

by auclairkeithbc on Jan 10, 2010 9:50 AM EST up reply actions  

You're right, the question isn't worded correctly...

what I’m trying to get at is what grade would you give a prospect who projects to be a Youk type hitter? I’d even argue Morrison projects for better power.

Poster formerly known as artie

by beastball on Jan 10, 2010 10:04 AM EST up reply actions  

probably a B+

like you say, maybe a case for A- but a weak one. probably fits him right around where the community poll is putting him.

by auclairkeithbc on Jan 10, 2010 10:14 AM EST up reply actions  

+1

The power slippage is just too alarming for a guy that has consistently been compared to Lyle “rally killer” Overpaid.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Jan 10, 2010 11:26 AM EST up reply actions  

btw, where's Ceda

I was pretty sure I saw him on the preliminary prospect list, but he isn’t listed anywhere. In a system that’s regressed a bit, I’ve got a hard time not seeing Ceda make the top 38. Sure, still the weight concerns (and along with that, the overall health concerns), but if he’s on, he’s still a potential closer.

by toonsterwu on Jan 10, 2010 1:24 AM EST reply actions  

ceda

He should be listed…He’s a Grade C pending injury recovery.

by John Sickels on Jan 10, 2010 10:23 AM EST up reply actions  

In regards to his injury

“He’s totally healthy,” said Marlins vice president of player development and scouting Jim Fleming. “We let him go home for the holidays. He finished his rehab. He will come back, and we’ll pick up the rehab again to make sure he’s 100 percent heading into Spring Training. He will come in early. We’re very pleased with where he’s at. The injury is resolved.”

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20091217&content_id=7824282&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb&partnerId=rss_mlb

Might have already seen it but just in case you haven’t. Obviously want to see what he can do though, rather than some fluff words. He suffered the worst injury a pitcher could have, and is notorious for not taking care of his body. Putting those two together is a recipe for burn out.

by nny on Jan 10, 2010 11:22 AM EST up reply actions  

yeah

Yeah, I saw that but I want to see it on the field….lots of times a guy is “totally healthy” but it turns out he really isn.t

by John Sickels on Jan 10, 2010 11:28 AM EST up reply actions  

+1

Well said John.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Jan 10, 2010 11:33 AM EST up reply actions  

Wow they're coming fast and furious now!

I like it.

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Jan 10, 2010 1:32 AM EST reply actions  

Logan Morrison vs Ike Davis

I don’t understand how Morrison gets an A- and Davis only gets a B.

That’s a huge difference in grading.

JOSH THOLE > carlos santana

by Dewey Finn on Jan 10, 2010 2:04 AM EST reply actions  

you should

make a fanpost about it

Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson

by gore51 on Jan 10, 2010 2:19 AM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Throw Yonder Alonso and Mike Rizzo in there too if you like

That would be interesting. I think a whole lot of people here would have to reevaluate how they look at 1B prospects. Although I praise tools for most positions, you better be damn sure with a 1B if you want to call him a top prospect.

by alskor on Jan 10, 2010 2:39 AM EST up reply actions  

I'm surprised

that Dewey didn’t take my comment as serious and make a fanpost already. I guarantee that if he did, it would be a recommended fanpost within 30 minutes.

Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson

by gore51 on Jan 10, 2010 8:54 PM EST up reply actions  

Simple

Ike Davis can’t hit curveballs.

by aCone419 on Jan 10, 2010 3:36 AM EST up reply actions  

He did? When?

I only saw the first movie.

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Jan 10, 2010 6:50 AM EST up reply actions  

Pedro Cerrano

is no mere mortal. He was our first Black president after all.

by aCone419 on Jan 10, 2010 4:07 PM EST up reply actions  

and he does my insurance. personally!

I suspect that you think tilting at windmills means something other than what it does.

Goals on Film, coming to San Francisco in 2010

by bobnothing on Jan 10, 2010 4:54 PM EST up reply actions  

Dominguez

Going by OPS+, he actually did better in Jupiter then he did in Greensboro. His walk% increased, his K% decreased.

The difference was in the base amount of power he hit. But he went from a massive hitters park in a hitters league to a massive pitchers park in a pitchers league. Once you adjust for park and league, his power numbers were basically identical.

So is his drop from B+/borderline A- to B simply because he was bad in AA? That seems a bit harsh for a 19 year old in AA. Especially since Stanton struggled in AA as well (Dominguez struggled more, yes, but he also didn’t have as big of a drop as Stanton did) but his rank went up.

Both Dominguez and Morrison are B+ in my opinion, with my opinion on Morrison already being addressed by others (1B mostly).

I also think you’re massively underrating Smolinski, he’s putting up basically the same peripherals as Coghlan did in A ball, while being two years younger. Coghlan got a B for his efforts. Both also include the same defensive questions. Smolinski certainly does have injury concerns, but a C is a massive miscalculation.

by nny on Jan 10, 2010 5:35 AM EST reply actions  

+1

And I’d be OK with a drop if John is worried that the low BABIP numbers weren’t just luck related, but I have a hard time justifying the fact that Vitters is a B+. Vitters is the same age and is a full level below Dominguez. His defense isn’t anywhere near as good; he struggled mightily in the FSL; and His walk rate is downright atrocious.

by jar75 on Jan 10, 2010 12:18 PM EST up reply actions  

+2

IMO Dominguez is one of the most underrated prospects in the game

Hoping for BowkerMania to hit AT&T Park in 2010

by Gobroks on Jan 10, 2010 9:30 PM EST up reply actions  

sleeping on it

after sleeping on it, i’m pulling morrison back to a B+ and moving Smolinksi up to a C+.

by John Sickels on Jan 10, 2010 10:19 AM EST reply actions  

grades

One thing you guys should remember is that all grades are short-hand notation for a larger explanation in each player’s comment.

by John Sickels on Jan 10, 2010 10:22 AM EST reply actions  

Bryan Berglund

Will he be in the book? He was on the list at one point.

by enelson44 on Jan 10, 2010 11:34 AM EST reply actions  

yeah

yeah he’s there. Grade C. some guys got chopped off when I posted that somehow. will fix.

by John Sickels on Jan 10, 2010 11:35 AM EST up reply actions  

Thanks John...

…for reading and responding to our comments. Can’t wait to read the book!

by enelson44 on Jan 10, 2010 11:41 AM EST reply actions  

Maybin

If Maybin was still eligible, where would he be on the list and what grade would you give him?

by rmarx on Jan 10, 2010 11:47 AM EST reply actions  

maybin

B+. number two. He’s still a great young talent, he was just rushed too fast.

by John Sickels on Jan 10, 2010 11:53 AM EST up reply actions  

Especially

Considering he missed time in 08 with nagging injuries, then they skipped him to the big club without a full season in AA or AAA.

by Cormican on Jan 10, 2010 9:17 PM EST up reply actions  

curb my enthusiasm

I know the flaws, but I can’t help but think that Mike Stanton is going to be a superstar. 68 professional homeruns as a teenager. Obviously he struggled in Double-A as 19-year-olds do, but still managed to hit 16 bombs and post a .224 isolated power with deflated babip. What if the Marlins had left him in the Florida State League for the entire 2009 season? .294/.390/.578 with 12 bombs in 50 games. Obviously the most important part of that was that Stanton’s walk rate was up and strikeout rate was down in High-A from his monster 2008 season.

by richieabernathy on Jan 11, 2010 1:00 PM EST reply actions  

This

If I had to pick a minor leaguer most likely to one day hit 50 homers, I’d go with Stanton, and it wouldn’t even be close. His power potential is orders of magnitude better than anyone else’s. If he has a 10% chance to hit 50 HR one day, no one else would be too far past 1%. There might be more complete offensive/defensive packages out there, but Stanton’s power is probably the single strongest tool among any minor league position player.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Jan 11, 2010 2:18 PM EST up reply actions  

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