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Cleveland Indians Top 20 Prospects for 2010

 

Top 20 Cleveland Indians Prospects for 2010

All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don't get too worried about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get beyond the Top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you want to emphasize. Complete reports on these and over 1,000 other players will be in the 2010 Baseball Prospect Book, now available for pre-order, shipping on February 2nd! 

Star-divide

1) Carlos Santana, C, Grade A: Needs a bit more polish with the glove, but looks like a future star to me. Bat looks awesome.

2) Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B, Grade B+: Coming along nicely with his beautiful swing, though I suspect he's two years away from being ready to help.

3) Nick Hagadone, LHP, Grade B: I'm assuming that the Tommy John recovery is complete and that he can take on a larger workload in 2010. Could push into B+/A- category if all goes well.

4) Alex White, RHP, Grade B: Need to see how pro adaptation goes, but like Hagadone he has B+/A- potential a year from now.

5) Hector Rondon, RHP, Grade B: Ceiling isn't quite that of Hagadone and White, but he's a solid guy and will be ready sooner. Scouts complain about secondary pitches being erratic, but he throws strikes with the heater.

6) Michael Brantley, OF, Grade B: Borderline B. I've been pushing Brantley as a prospect since he came out of high school, due to his patience/contact/speed combination. My only concern is that his lack of power will relegate him to a fourth outfielder role.

7) Carlos Carrasco, RHP, Grade B-: Hard to grade given his very erratic track record. He'll look awesome at times, awful at others, you never know what you're going to get. Could be Rookie of the Year. . .or he could post a 5.00 ERA in Triple-A.

8) Nick Weglarz, OF, Grade B-: Like Carrasco, he's hard to rank. When he's going good Weglarz is a monster power hitter with great patience. But injuries hamper him and his body could go bad easily.

9) Jason Knapp, RHP, Grade B-: Would rank higher on pure stuff alone, but I'm afraid his arm might fall off.

10) T.J. House, LHP, Grade B-: Aggressive ranking that others may not share, but he made a successful pro debut in full-season ball with no rookie league experience, has a live arm, and is a lefty. Breakthrough candidate for 2010.

11) Jason Kipnis, 2B-OF, Grade C+: Borderline B- due to his bat, but I want to see how the second base conversion goes in real games.

12) Lou Marson, C, Grade C+: I respect his defense and his contact hitting ability, and he'll have a long career. But I just don't think he'll hit for enough power to be as good as his partisans expect. Will hold down the fort until Santana is ready.

13) Zach Putnam, RHP, Grade C+: Will reportedly move back to starting role, where he projects as an inning-eater type. I like him.

14) Tony Sipp, LHP, Grade C+: Under the 50-inning limit. At worst a very impressive LOOGY, but he gets right-handers out too. If his command sharpens up, he could end up with some saves.

15) Josh Judy, RHP, Grade C+: Hard-throwing reliever with some command, could help in the bullpen very soon and deserves more attention than he's received.

16) Jess Todd, RHP, Grade C+: Didn't look good in Cleveland, but was excellent in Triple-A. Gets grounders, will get more chances.

17) Mitch Talbot, RHP, Grade C+: This is a good pickup from Tampa. An older prospect, but assuming his elbow is OK, he could pull a Randy Wells in 2010. Has nothing left to prove in Triple-A.

18) Scott Barnes, LHP, Grade C+: Strike-throwing deceptive lefty could be fourth starter. Nice pickup from Giants.

19) Eric Berger, LHP, Grade C+: Strike-throwing deceptive lefty could be fourth starter.

20) Jason Donald, SS-2B Grade C+: Injuries hampered him last year. If healthy, could be a fine utility infielder or a short-term starter at second base.

21) Kelvin De La Cruz, LHP, Grade C+: Would rank higher than some of the others on upside alone, but is further away from the majors and has to prove he's healthy.

22) Conor Graham, RHP, Grade C+: Amazing movement and velocity, but needs better control. Nice pickup from Rockies.

23) Jeanmar Gomez, RHP, Grade C+: Finesse righty could be useful utility pitcher/fourth-fifth starter.

24) Alex Perez, RHP, Grade C+: Projectable arm is breakthrough candidate.

OTHERS: (Grade C): Abner Abreu, OF; Hector Ambriz, RHP; Jesus Brito, 3B; Jordan Brown, OF-1B; Clayton Cook, RHP; Paulo Espino, RHP; Joe Gardner, RHP; Jordan Henry, OF; Wes Hodges, 3B; Matt McBride, C-OF; T.J. McFarland, LHP; Beau Mills, 1B; Yohan Pino, RHP; Carlos Rivero, SS; Donnie Webb, OF.

I originally indentified 65 guys who could have been written up as at least Grade C prospects, and it was tough to whittle that down.

Let's start with the hitters. At the top you have Santana, who has everything needed to be a star, and Chisenhall, who is a bit behind him but highly promising. Brantley has been a personal favorite for a long time. Weglarz is something of an enigma, and there's some risk he could devolve into a Quadruple-A slugger. He could also become Jim Thome. I've never been really wild about Marson but he's fine to catch until Santana is ready, and at worst he'll make a wonderful backup. Same with Donald, the other former Phillie who could be a good utility guy but still has a chance to start if '09 was an injury-induced slippage. The hitting is thinner than the pitching and they could use some impact bats beyond the top two.

But the pitching. . .wow, there is a lot of depth in pitching. Hagadone and White have terrific ceilings, even if both still have some unanswered questions. Rondon should also be very good. Carrasco is an enigma, but one that is worth taking a chance on. There is just a huge variety of C+ arms beyond this group, mixing up guys with hot stuff, guys with projection, and guys with pitchability.

All told, the Indians need more depth in impact talent, but they have an enormous number of C+ and intriguing C prospects. They mine Latin America, they've done well in trades, and they pick up some sleepers (Sipp, Judy, House, Berger) in the draft. If Chisenhall and White lives up to their billing, perhaps that presages improvement in the early impact rounds as well.

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Comments

Display:

Gomez

Why no love for Jeanmar Gomez?

by airweino on Jan 9, 2010 2:43 AM EST reply actions  

Ugh

1) Carlos Santana, C, Grade A: Needs a bit more polish with the glove, but looks like a future star to me. Bat looks awesome.

Why do you need to make me cry???

by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Jan 9, 2010 2:44 AM EST reply actions  

You don't think Casey Blake is an integral piece?

And not to pour salt into the wound but how much would it suck on top of that if Colletti ever actually traded Martin/let him walk once he hits free agency.

"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'

it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.

by Gina on Jan 9, 2010 3:02 AM EST up reply actions  

Trading Santana

means that Martin is staying, for a while. We have no one who could possiblly be as good as he was.. in his worst year. May and Ellis(two catchers who are near MLB ready) both are suited for a backup role and the only ones off the top of my head that MAY be good are J.T. Wise(catcher drafted last year, Big 12 player of the year, a steal, IMO) or maybe Tony Delmonico(changed positions, good bat, but needs to work on calling the game.

With Casey, I do think he is an important part. He is best friends with Matt Kemp and has helped Kemp stay level headed as Kemp has turned into a superstar. That makes him worth the contract, IMO. However, in no way in HELL is he worth Carlos Santana… Santana is one of the best f’in prospects in the minors, and we traded him for Casey Blake and his salary to be covered in 08. We almost HAD to resign him to explain why we gave up Santana.

Oh, and Blake being there may have had an effect on us trading Josh Bell. Needless to say, it was a dumb trade that lead to another dumb trade… One that Dodger fans may think of on the Piazza/Pedro level if Santana develops.

by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Jan 9, 2010 4:44 AM EST up reply actions  

Perez

I think you’re seriously under-rating him here John. He’s kind of picked up the Zach Britton “why the heck does no one notice how good I am” mantle, so maybe he’ll finally get his due next year.

by Franchise887 on Jan 9, 2010 3:02 AM EST reply actions  

For a team that traded away Lee, Sabathia,and Vmart

I wouldve expected more high end prospects, obviously this shows their attempt at quantity over quality. Though i’m sure one can debate that laporta, hagadone, knapp have star upside. The rest masterson ,carrasco, donald, marson offer some immediate help. Price, jackson, bryson who knows. Brantley not sure where he’ll fit long term, since indians have good OF depth

by MagicMike23 on Jan 9, 2010 5:26 AM EST reply actions  

of course, the depth probably isn't all that reassuring to Tribe fans

The organization was exceptionally deep a few years ago as well under the same management, with a similar lack in high-end talent. There were certainly those who thought that the sheer numbers would work out in the Indians’ favor, and that even expected attrition would leave enough emerging young players to put them in a position to contend. Obviously it didn’t work out like that.

Now, I don’t think it’s quite the same deal as before . . .the Santana/Chisenhall combo that distinguishes itself atop this list is MUCH safer than the Adam Miller/Chuck Lofgren duo ever was. And I think there’s a bit more potential impact talent in here than previously seen (big Kipnis fan, I imagine at least a couple of the young pitchers will make good impressions in the minors in the next couple of years). But we’ll have to see.

by mrkupe on Jan 9, 2010 9:38 AM EST up reply actions  

Remember

A lot of Cleveland’s high-end young talent is already in the big leagues. Sizemore, Choo, A. Cabrera, LaPorta, Masterson, and Chris Perez aren’t prospects anymore. Add these prospects to the guys already topside and you have a nice looking team in a couple years.

by Alex Trebek on Jan 9, 2010 2:26 PM EST up reply actions  

It's unbelieveable really

Prospect they got for Casey F***ing Blake puts the guys they got for CC Sabathia, Cliff Lee and Victor Martinez to shame.

by Manstein on Jan 9, 2010 7:09 AM EST reply actions  

Wow, that's even deeper than I thought

with arms.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on Jan 9, 2010 9:00 AM EST reply actions  

Chisenhall

John, Chisenhall or Josh Bell? Who ends up with the better career? Any lingering character concerns regarding Chisenhall?

by Melonville Sports on Jan 9, 2010 9:25 AM EST reply actions  

One more on Chisenhall

On this year’s Top 100 does he end up in 1-20, 21-39, 40-59?

by Melonville Sports on Jan 9, 2010 9:27 AM EST reply actions  

are you asking about the consensus?

I think Chisenhall is generally going to rate in the 21-39 group. But I tend to think that’s a sign of the weakness of the current crop . . .not that Chisenhall is a bad prospect by any means, but most every other year he’s solidly in the middle of that 40-59 group.

by mrkupe on Jan 9, 2010 9:42 AM EST up reply actions  

Wanted John's opinion

But always interested in what others might think as well. With TBJ moving Wallace to 1st base I would probably rank the 3B prospects as

1 – Alvarez
2 – Moustakos
3 – Chisenhall
4 – Vitters
5 – Dominguez

Not a list that, beyond Alvarez, that makes me do cartwheels.

by Melonville Sports on Jan 9, 2010 10:07 AM EST up reply actions  

John's opinion might not be totally what you're looking for

As he only does a top 100 list for fantasy baseball purposes on Rotowire. He actually makes two separate top 50 lists to rate prospects on their own merits, one for hitters and one for pitchers.

I think mine is something like Alvarez, Chisenhall, Darnell, Bell, Dominguez. And yeah, it’s not a terrific crop of 3B in the minors right now. Chisenhall is probably the safest bet, and even he isn’t a sure thing. Dominguez’s pedigree and glove will give him lots of time to prove himself, but I’m not sure he’s going to hit.

by mrkupe on Jan 9, 2010 10:24 AM EST up reply actions  

Thanks but...

I’ve actually been following John’s work very closely for 5+ years now and his opinion, along with Kevin Goldstein’s, are easily the best in the business. Hands down. Just my opinion.

by Melonville Sports on Jan 9, 2010 10:40 AM EST up reply actions  

ah what?

Did you actually read what mrkupe wrote? He said nothing about discounting John’s opinion, he’s just suggesting you may not find what you’re looking for from John on minorleagueball.com because he doesn’t actually release a Top 100 here. He has top separate top 50 lists, one for hitters, one for pitchers.

ProspectTube.com

You Video. You Scout.

by ProspectTube.com on Jan 9, 2010 2:23 PM EST up reply actions  

Mine

Alvarez (ranked here for his bat only, I don’t think he last long at third)
Chisenhall
Dominguez
Moustakas
Bell (I’d like to see if his defense continues to progress)
Darnell
Borchering
Vitters (he should be mentioned, but I’m not a fan at all)

by jar75 on Jan 9, 2010 12:15 PM EST up reply actions  

Bell belongs in there

and I would drop Moustakas pretty hard, as well as Vitters.

Alvarez
Chisenhall (I like Chisenhall best of the Chiz-Bell-Dominguez trio, but Im not worried about their order here. Only pointing out Moustakas is a good bit behind these guys. I wouldnt mind if someone insisted Alvarez is on his own tier, either)
Bell
Dominguez
-
Moustakas ( John gave him a B, and well deserved, IMHO)
-
Vitters (approach is incredibly worrisome to me)

by alskor on Jan 9, 2010 1:11 PM EST up reply actions  

+1

To me Chisenhall is a notch ahead of Mous and Vitters right now.

ProspectTube.com

You Video. You Scout.

by ProspectTube.com on Jan 9, 2010 2:26 PM EST up reply actions  

21-39, which I think is accurate. Most people agree that he’s the best 3rd base prospect after Alvarez who is generally ranked in the top 10-15, so going by that logic, Chisenhall should be a little higher, but I think Alvarez gets a bit overrated.

by JP_Frost on Jan 9, 2010 9:45 AM EST up reply actions  

Watched Alvarez a bit and I just

don’t think he is a 3B in the majors. Pittsburgh may try it but, like Montero, he looks be be more of a 1B/DH type to me in a league that doesn’t have the DH. If we are looking at ML future 3B, I would like Chisenhall over the others.

by sdtribefan on Jan 9, 2010 12:06 PM EST up reply actions  

I know, but for now he’s seen as a 3rd baseman and will probably break into the majors as one. Once he officially moves to 1st, Chisenhall takes the top spot (if he continues to develop like he has so far).

by JP_Frost on Jan 9, 2010 12:20 PM EST up reply actions  

dunno

Dunno. Can answer that better when all the grades are done.

by John Sickels on Jan 9, 2010 12:20 PM EST up reply actions  

Interesting list. I think some guys are too high (Marson, Putnam, Talbot and Judy) while others seem a bit low (De La Cruz, Perez and Gomez).

Love the depth of the system and some impact talent could be added this upcoming draft.

by JP_Frost on Jan 9, 2010 9:43 AM EST reply actions  

I think Marson suffers in evaluations because apart from his OBP skills, his defense at a key defensive position is his best asset, and catcher defense is simply not that easily quantifiable nor easily spotted by the eye (sure you can spot the poor ones, but separating the good from great isn’t as easy).

by hans on Jan 9, 2010 12:05 PM EST up reply actions  

That’s true and Marson is by no means a lousy prospect, but he is playing second fiddle to Santana and in a system this deep, I’d rank some other guys above him. I have him in the lower 20’s.

by JP_Frost on Jan 9, 2010 12:18 PM EST up reply actions  

Tony Sipp

Good to see him getting some love again.

by ajake57 on Jan 9, 2010 10:30 AM EST reply actions  

Nice list John.

People can argue about specific placements but I think you did the organization proud. If I had to point out some of the Cs that you might reconsider for a higher grade in the book I would start with Rivero and Abreu and also look at McFarland and Cook.

My personal view is that Gomez and Perez(maybe De La Cruz too) could also use a grade bump but beauty is in the eye of the beholder in these cases.

You must really like Hagadone. Not arguing the placement but I did not go that high. Waiting to see how he does when healthy at age appropriate competition but lots of talent as you pointed out.

by sdtribefan on Jan 9, 2010 11:22 AM EST reply actions  

I am a little surprised

That Knapp only gets a B- from you. Does anyone (John) have any deep insights into his injury? Also, John, how do you compare Knapp and Kyle Gibson (another surprising B- to me)?

by auclairkeithbc on Jan 9, 2010 11:27 AM EST reply actions  

Jess Todd

He was a B- last year, but is a C+ this year. Has his status dimmed? I know his 7.66 ERA in 22.1 big league innings is uninspiring, but his xFIP of 4.47 was not as bad and he did have 20 strikeouts in his first big league cameo.

by Alex Trebek on Jan 9, 2010 2:33 PM EST reply actions  

There are really a few C+s I think could be B-s

Kind of surprised. I feel like Barnes, De La Cruz, Gomez and Perez all compare pretty favorably with guys in other systems who have gotten B-s. Not sure if theyre getting hidden by the depth here. It really is crazy depth.

I understand the Knapp grade, too, but I would have him higher despite that. His injuries havent been the major variety that they should so strongly discount a guy with a top notch arm.

by alskor on Jan 9, 2010 3:21 PM EST up reply actions  

It's probably better to rank them conservatively.

However, IMO 10-24 on this list are interchangeable. You have guys like Gomez, Putnam and Judy who are closer to the majors, but with lower ceilings and guys with higher ceilings at lower levels like House, de la Cruz and A. Perez.

by Alex Trebek on Jan 9, 2010 3:51 PM EST up reply actions  

I agree and think the pitchers are graded a bit too conservatively as a whole

The hitters are right where I would expect them, but the pitchers seem to be half a grade low on average. There may be a tendency to grade them against each other within the grading framework of a typical system rather than grading them against all pitching prospects. If you put this list next to another team’s, I think it would become apparent that the grades don’t quite match up. Here are the Brewers pitching prospects and grades:

Eric Arnett, RHP, Grade B
Jake Odorizzi, RHP, Grade B-
Wily Peralta, RHP, Grade B-
Cody Scarpetta, RHP, Grade B-
Kyle Heckathorn, RHP, Grade B-
Zach Braddock, LHP, Grade C+
Josh Butler, RHP, Grade C+
Amaury Rivas, RHP, Grade C+
Evan Anundsen, RHP, Grade C+
Mark Rogers, RHP, Grade C+

At the same grades, wouldn’t you take Hagadone, White, and Rondon over Arnett? Carrasco and Knapp over every Brewer with a B-? Most of the Indians with a C+ over the second or third best C+ Brewer?

For a typical prospect I think there are two grades that would be quite justifiable. I could see Hagadone, White, and Rondon as B+/B guys, Carrasco and Knapp B/B-, and all the other pitchers at 10-24 as B-/C+. From this perspective, House received the aggressive possible grade and all 16 others received the conservative option. A more even split of aggressive and conservative grades for the pitchers would align better with the other prospect lists in my opinion.

by The Good Face on Jan 9, 2010 8:02 PM EST up reply actions  

Good to see Rondon put in his place

Some posters were WAY overrating him

The 2008 Rogelio Moret League Fantasy Baseball Champions!

by The Congo Hammer on Jan 9, 2010 5:10 PM EST reply actions  

He's similar to Dan Hudson

but a little better, in my mind. Dan Duffy is another one. Not top notch ceiling. More middle of the rotation, but with pitchability, control, comman and other factors (I dont want to say intangibles) that make them better than just a middle of the rotation guy.

by alskor on Jan 10, 2010 2:11 AM EST up reply actions  

I think Rondon's ceiling is higher than some suggest

Before 2008 he was a pitcher with great control but below average major league velocity. Over the course of 2008, as he filled out his frame, his fastball velocity increased to at or above major league average — sitting between 90 and 94 depending upon whose reports you believe and topping out at 95 to 97.

He’s only 21-years-old (turns 22 next month) and has effectively been pitching at his current velocity for a season and a half, all at new levels for him High A, AA and AAA. He dominated the first two levels and pitched well but was not dominating at AAA. He’s certainly not an ace now, but I’m puzzled why some view his ceiling as mid-rotation. I think he could start the season in the Indians rotation as a 4 or 5 and do better than the guys who filled those roles last year. I also think to suggest his ceiling is anything less than a 2 is to sell him short.

by Rotofan on Jan 10, 2010 1:42 PM EST up reply actions  

Jordan Brown

How do you think on him?
Feel sorry to see him ranked C since he was highly ranked before.

by puffdad on Jan 10, 2010 8:57 PM EST reply actions  

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