BA's Cleveland Indians top 10
by JP_Frost on Jan 6, 2010 12:14 PM EST
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PrintKipnis and Brantley are ranked really high, but if Kipnis sticks at 2nd then it may be justified.
Thoughts?
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| PROJECTED 2013 LINEUP |
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Comments
Hagadone is a real surprise for me, pretty high. I also continue to be confused as to why Perez gets placed behind nearly all of the top SP in the Indians system. I can see being behind Rondon but I think Perez is right up there with most of them. I understand Carrasco has a longer track record, Knapp has better results, and White has a higher profile so I’m fine with being behind them but he is almost always placed behind De La Cruz, Huff, House, Hagadone, Gomez, Putnam, etc.
Carlos Carrasco
Last winter, as his prospect status began to dull, I personally attributed it to prospect fatigue and wondered: what if he had just been drafted from college and struck out 155 batters in 151.1 innings between Double-A and Triple-A at the age of 21 with a solid fastball and a great changeup? Of course, he didn’t fare as well in 2009, but did get five cup-of-coffee starts down the stretch for the Tribe. The video I’ve seen him in has him 92 mph or so with the fastball and that really good changeup we’ve read about for years. How does everyone see Carrasco looking forward? Another Ian Kennedy or a dark horse for 2009 AL Rookie of the Year? He’ll obviously get his chances to either succeed or fail and should be in the mlb rotation to start the year.
by richieabernathy on Jan 6, 2010 12:43 PM EST reply actions
I'd be shocked
if he won the 2009 ROY. Plus, I don’t think Andrew Bailey is going to voluntarily give his up.
Sorry, I had to!
In all seriousness, I agree with what your wrote about him. His 2009 campaign though opened the door for criticsm, but he did get a sniff like you said. Personally, I think the upside of #3 starter is fair.
His numbers in the majors were atrocious, but in AAA and in particular after he was traded were still really solid. He just needs time to mature and figure out what works against major league hitters and what doesn’t. Given his age and stuff, I’m fairly optimistic that he’ll become a good MOR starter.
A couple thoughts
I don’t know why BA doesn’t seem to like Rondon… I mean he’s a much safer bet to be a solid pitcher than either Hagadone and Knapp (even if they have higher upsides). His K and BB rates look good (9.13 K/9, 2.00 BB/9 in 15 AA games and 7.75 K/9, 1.57 BB/9 in 13 AAA games) and he’s still very young (22 in February).
I think Weglarz is a little high. He has impressive plate discipline and the power potential is there, but even if everything comes together he’s still only a 3 true outcomes, slugging DH type (which aren’t particularly hard to find). I like Weglarz, but I’d have him around #10 or so instead.
Lastly, take a look at that 2013 lineup. If the Indians can keep Sizemore (they have a lot of money coming off the books from Hafner, Westbrook and Wood), that lineup is damn impressive. With the tribe’s pitching depth if a couple of their pitchers can take it to the next level, this could be a really dangerous team in a couple years.
by Alex Trebek on Jan 6, 2010 1:02 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
No one seems to like Rondon
Goldstein also put him 6th and under the 3 star category.
Alex White looks low to me.
Yeah, I have White a little higher as well.
Rondon was clearly #3 for me in the top 10. I also don’t know what some people don’t like about him, because he seems pretty complete to me. Of course he has to work on a couple of things and his ceiling isn’t as high as Knapp’s or Hagadone’s, but he’s also alot less risky and closer to the majors.
White
went to Omaha and watched White dominate my Sun Devils (although we won in extra innings). He has a really explosive fastball and located it VERY well against us. His slider came and went and was very inconsistent. He has no changeup to speak of at all. The fact that he dominated our stacked lineup with basically one pitch shows how great his heater is.
IMO, he doesn’t have the secondary stuff to be a starter, but the fastball alone makes him a dominant backend guy
RE
it is hard to differentiate between a slider/splitter, especially from 30 rows back. Whatever it was he had trouble controlling it after the 3rd/4th inning on. He still dominated with just his fastball, which was impressive considering our lineup had All Americans like Carlos Ramirez, Jason Kipnis, Matt Newman
Rondon ...
Rondon is seen more as a strike thrower, so guys like BA and BP who value upside much more will underrate him versus people who value a higher floor. For that reason I wouldn’t be surprised to see John rate him higher than most, but then again this IS a really, really deep system.
Rondon
agreed he is getting a cold-shoulder here from BA.
Rondon
I have him 3rd overall
behind Santana and Chisenhall
I can’t beleive Hagadone’s ranking ….seriously what has Hagondone done to justify that ranking?
I'd rather have Nick Punto playing 3B and Felipe Lopez playing 2B
than Punto playing 2B and Kouzy, Crede, DeRosa or Glaus playing 3B.
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jan 6, 2010 4:20 PM EST up reply actions
Hagadone throws very hard with nasty, nasty stuff
I dont at all see what people dont like about him. I think he’s one of the best relief prospects in baseball, actually. Definitely a future Closer.
Don't dislike him
but a good starting prospect is more valuable than a good relief prospect, no? And this is not the same as the Carter argument, because isn’t there a question whether hagadone could start? Not the same a Feliz, either, since it is pretty clear he is being groomed to start, question only being how sucessful he will be in that role.
This is the problem with Hagadone. He’s not a starting pitching prospect, and I don’t care how good he is at relieving (he still has no command to speak of), he’s not 3rd in the system.
This is just a horrible, horrible list.
Agree with the folks about Rondon. Jeanmar Gomez and Alex Perez should be on this list.
His control was bad - but this was his first year back from TJ surgery
Often guys don’t regain their control until a year+ after. Hagadone didnt have great control before that, admittedly, but the rest of the package is awesome enough that Im not too worried.
I think people are far too down on relievers in general around here.
Would we really rather have a #4 starter type than Daniel Bard or Andrew Bailey? No way. Yes, they accumulate more WAR in a year. That entirely misses the point. The elite relief prospects have a ton of value. I consider Hagadone one of the very best relief prospects.
Im not sure Hagadone could really start anymore. TJ and it was a question mark to begin with. He does have three good pitches (or at least the makings of a good third one).
He’s a big lefty reliever who throws mid 90’s and can dial it up with plus stuff! What isnt exciting about that?
good points
But just going off the stat line I really like Rondon. I don’t think his ceiling is number 4 starter. So, as between Rondon and a guy who is coming off an injury, not great command and may become a great reliever, I’d take Rondon.
I would definitely tak Rondon over Hagadone as well
I probably should have said that. Im just defending Hagadone in general – IN NO WAY DO I AGREE WITH BA’s placement of him on their list. I think I did an Indians top 15 in a thread a while back. IIRC Hagadone was around 7th? Behind Knapp and Rondon… might have had him above Alex White, but he was a reliever at that point… Maybe Ill do an Indians top 15 post some point soon.
Okay but
That’s just alskor’s opinion that Hagadone will be a reliever. He started every game last year, even though he was coming off injury, and there are no current plans to put him in relief. His ceiling as a starter is much higher than Rondon’s.
And you can’t determine someone’s ceiling from a statline.
in AA and AAA
I think you get a decent idea of a guy’s ceiling not being a 4 starter if his k/bb is as good as Rondon’s at high levels. And admittedly I know he isn’t a soft-tosser.
I can’t deny if Hagadone has a higher ceiling. I have heard that he does. And my bad if he was starting, but his innings pitched suggest he was babied nevertheless. He averaged 2 2/3rds innings a start. So his K rate has to be discounted for fact he rarely went through a lineup twice. And he walked nearly 5 guys per 9.
Rondon went nearly 6 per 9, is 2 years younger, doesn’t have the injury history, and had an 8.4/1.8 k/bb.
So I prefer Rondon, but evidently Hagadone has great potential.
He was babied because he was coming back from TJS
That’s fairly standard. They clearly intend to use him as a starter, with RP as a fallback if that doesn’t work out. Right now, I’d say it is just as likely that Rondon ends up as a RP, since they already moved him to the bullpen once (though just briefly).
And I disagree that you can glean ceiling merely from K/BB (or other stats) in the upper minors.
Exhibit A
Exhibit B
Exhibit C
Can it be an indicator that a player has a high ceiling? Absolutely; a good K/BB is one of the best indicators of success for a pitcher. But that’s not a determination you can make without looking into the scouting reports.
This isn’t a specific commentary on Rondon, by the way, as I wouldn’t limit him to a #4. I would probably say he projects as a #3, with the slight potential to be even better if he improves his secondary offerings. At least, I would say that, but really I hate speaking in terms of #1s, #2s, etc.
Rondon was moved to the pen in a knee-jerk reaction to the sucktitude of the major league bullpen. That was just a temporary move and he will definately get every chance as a starter unless he shows he can’t handle it.
I dont think they really profile Rondon in relief at all
When they moved him they said it was b/c they needed MLB bullpen help and thought he could help quickly. They made it clear his long term future was in the rotation. Its the same case as Derek Holland in Texas, yet you wouldnt say Holland could end up in relief.
They don't profile Hagadone in relief either
Either could end up in the pen, just like most pitching prospects, but they both are starters for now and in the immediate future. That’s my point.
Petit/James/Bush
Petit’s k rate his first 2 years at AAA were 6.3 and 5.8.
James pretty much was a 3rd to 4th starter his first 2 years (and you are correct, those terms are sorta imprecise and pointless), double digit winner (huge homer rate, like Bush I think, and that is a concern with Rondon). james also hurt his shoulder, no? So we may not know what his ceiling was.
Bush was 24 by the time he erached AAA, 3 eyars older than Rondon. I suppose he has maxed out as a 4.
Saying ceiling means to me he won’t necessarily reach it. So if you say Petit, Bush james as examples, well, Rondon might end up like them. I didn’t say definitvely. And I think he dials it up higher than these guys do. I did add that I combined the k/bb with fact he reportedly throws harder than 90 mph.
Bush sits 88-89, James and Petit in the 87s.
So, I am no scout and have to take reports of folks who know better than I do and have seen him very seriously, no doubt.
BA lost a little lustre for me when they had Adam Rubin do their write-up for the Mets top 10. He isn’t a scout, and maybe he didn’t dictate the rankings for them, but several Mets fans here seem to know the players better than he does. But that’s just a tiny quibble, but I do think i do not have to take BA as gospel.
I know hagadone is coming back from TJ, and ity is typical to do that slowly, and most guys are fine nowadays coming back from that. Part of the martinez haul, supposedly great stuff. So I guess I am wrong to say he’s a reliever so less valuable, but I would still take Rondon over him. I just think he’s a safer bet.
You are right i cannot definively say what his ceiling is just by k/bb, but I am pretty comfortable with it is higher than the 3 samples you cited. Cleveland would likely be ok if he put up a year like Bush’s or james’s 2006, and i think he likely can do better than that. Will he? That’s not ceiling, that’s guaranteeing.
Petit’s k rate his first 2 years at AAA were 6.3 and 5.8.
You are missing the point. Look at what he did as twenty year old in AA. That he later declined only supports my point.
James pretty much was a 3rd to 4th starter his first 2 years (and you are correct, those terms are sorta imprecise and pointless), double digit winner (huge homer rate, like Bush I think, and that is a concern with Rondon). james also hurt his shoulder, no? So we may not know what his ceiling was.
He was pretty much a league average starter before getting hurt, and he was pretty much maxing out his ceiling (as a Braves fan, I watched a lot him). His K/BB rates were fantastic in AA/AAA, and thus “should” have portended an ace level starter.
Bush sits 88-89, James and Petit in the 87s.
But you wouldn’t know that by looking at their K/BB ratios. That’s my point. James (the only one whose stuff I’m familar with) had a fantastic change, that was probably just as good of a pitch, if not better, than Rondon’s fastball. But it is hard to be a well above average big league starter with just one pitch.
As I said, I’m not talking specifically about Rondon or BA’s rankings, and I am not saying Rondon will turn out like any of those guys. I am merely pointing out the flaw in the K/BB to ceiling correlation you are drawing.
However, I will point out that his lack of secondary stuff is not just BA’s opinion. Goldstein wrote the same thing.
however
All 3 of the guys you named pretty much had 4th starter floors (Petit seems to me to deserve that status, although he doesn’t get the job-his CHONE and James projected fips are 4.81 and 4.82 over 100 innings, which would put him between Kevin Millwood and Doug Davis at numbers 70 and 71 based on their 2009 fip ranking among major league starters), and all 3 were pretty well known to be soft-tossers. While Rondon has been said not to have plus stuff, he doesn’t throw 88 mph. So i cheated, in that I knew he is not strictly a soft-tosser and that’s not just going by k/bb.
But you are right, you need more than 1 pitch. And it is also correct that you can’t simply go by k/bb. I can’t see Rondon as having a 4th starter ceiling. That’s a floor he is almost certain to reach absent health issues in my mind.
BTW, Bush had WARs of 2.0, 1.5, 3.8 and 1.9 his first 4 years, ranking him 74th, 80th, 33rd and 65th among major league starters. Since there are 30 teams, he can be said to have maxed out as a number 3, with an absolute peak of a number 2 season (his 2006 season). Being a healthy, high strikeout, low walk guy can be very valuable even without plus stuff.
As an A's fan, if you showed me a guy who was guaranteed to be a #4 starter
I don’t think I’d hesitate much to trade you Andrew Bailey for him. I’d trade 2010 Bailey for 2005 Joe Blanton, in other words.
Some teams seem to struggle with it for some weird reason, but finding good relief pitchers is really— really— not difficult. The A’s have basically a full bullpen’s worth of elite setup men and closers, on which they spent a combined total of something like “2 C- prospects, the rotting corpses of Mark Kotsay and Jason Kendall, and a couple of extremely late-round draft picks.”
O'Hara: Detective Lassiter is literally on fire.
Spencer: What kind of fire are we talking about-- "Michael Jackson in the Pepsi commercial" fire, or "misusing the word literally" fire?
Mets struggle with it
Or maybe they just overpay for it and trade some away so they don’t find out how good the scrubs can be. Although they don’t always have a bad pen. But the fact is these things can swing wildly. Was it cleveland, awful one year, great the next, then awful again? The sample sizes are small.
Ive been thinking recently that there is a gradient here
For small market teams the back end starter is more important since they can’t afford to pay that or the reliever in free agency. As you come to the big market teams they can always afford back end starters so the relievers are bigger concerns, b/c relievers are always tremendously bad gambles in free agency.
really?
hurt all the time, not a starter, never thrown 50 innings in a pro season, not getting any younger at 24…
by richieabernathy on Jan 6, 2010 4:32 PM EST up reply actions
Focusing too much on results here
His stuff is nasty, he’s a big lefty and he throws hard. Id wager he could be a useful MLB reliever today.
With the surgery, he obviously isnt going to have a long resume to support him. So what? He was a college guy and highly thought of. When he has pitched he’s looked great!
Career MiLB numbers
H/9: 5.1
K/9: 11.8
BB/9: 4.3 – is NOT that bad, especially considering he had TJ, after which its a long time before you get your control back.
you do have to discount
somewhat because, even if he can eventually start, those numbers were compiled in relief.
I’m not that down on hagadone, but Rondon to me is a more promising prospect at this stage.
you know
the attrition rate of all prospects, especially pitchers, right?
by richieabernathy on Jan 6, 2010 5:07 PM EST up reply actions
Im very aware of it
The tricky part is not over-correcting for it, IMHO.
Hagadone is not all that far away, either. I dont want to say he’s a finished product or anything, but he’s not at all far away and what he is now would be plenty useful. Is he an injury risk? Well, yeah… he’s already had TJ. Still, Im not arguing he’s top 5 in this system. Im just saying better than what I was hearing here.
and Ill say this point blank
I feel Ive been way too risk averse in my prospect evaluations in the past (before the last year and a half maybe).
I see guys I worried about because they were such unknown quantites and they hadnt proven anything in the high minors. I see those guys becoming excellent major league players because the tools shone through.
Scouting is at least equally important as performance for guys in the high minors – and Im not sure that at any point it switches over to stats being more important that scouting. Typically the best prospects in the high minors are young for their league, so their performance must be translated properly and put in the proper context. As for the low minors, scouting/tools are far more important than performance. So many things can alter performance at that level in dramatic ways. There is still an ARL issue and the numbers overall are just not trustworthy. They arent kept in a uniform, consistent manner.
I agree with you on Rondon.
BA really seems to be down on the Indians “latin trio” of Rondon, Gomez and De La Cruz regardless of their performance. I had Rondon at 3 and Hagadone at 9. Hagadone has great stuff but his age and arm trouble limit how high I will go until I see a full season of age appropriate performance.
It is a difficult system to rank but I find the omission of Tony Sipp to be an oversight. Even with Chris Perez around, he may be the next Indian closer. His performance at the ML level one year after major surgery was terrific.
Any thoughts on Jordan Henry?
I took him in a shadow draft. Love his defense, and he has some OBA skills, but I worry about his ability to ever hit well enough to reach the bigs.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
in the projected lineup
they have Carrasco as the #5 and Rondon as the #3… after rating Carrasco higher on the list… wtf?
+1
I'd rather have Nick Punto playing 3B and Felipe Lopez playing 2B
than Punto playing 2B and Kouzy, Crede, DeRosa or Glaus playing 3B.
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jan 6, 2010 4:21 PM EST up reply actions
T.J. House
I think House deserved top 10 imo. I’m really high on the guy and think he fit better at 10 then Kipinis does.
yeah
I like house more than hagodone, Gomez, and Sipp or Todd
House right behind Knapp and Rondon; as far as the Tribe’s pitchers go:
for me its probably:
1. Rondon
2. Knapp
3. House
4. White
5. Hagadone (9 or 10,11 overall) not 3rd !?!!? wtf BA?
6. Carrasco
7. Perez
8. Gomez
9. De la Cruz
10. Todd
11. Price
I'd rather have Nick Punto playing 3B and Felipe Lopez playing 2B
than Punto playing 2B and Kouzy, Crede, DeRosa or Glaus playing 3B.
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jan 7, 2010 7:21 PM EST up reply actions
Kipnis
Obviously being a big ASU fan, I enjoyed watching Kipnis the past few years. But I have to be honest, IMO, he doesn’t profile as an above ave big league regular. He is basically Collin Curtis with a little more power. How that power translates to wood will be key.
Interesting to see how the move to 2b works for him. He was a VERY good CFer for us, but his lack of plus speed and lack of an arm would have probably forced a move to LF eventually, where his bat wouldn’t profile at all.
Weglarz 4th overall in their system? really?
I guess I’m actually OK with this
but does anyone not agree with that placement?
I'd rather have Nick Punto playing 3B and Felipe Lopez playing 2B
than Punto playing 2B and Kouzy, Crede, DeRosa or Glaus playing 3B.
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jan 6, 2010 4:23 PM EST reply actions
I dont..
He’s a lot closer to a big, injury prone plodder than anything else. He has lots of power and a great approach, but I think he’s very likely to end up a 1B/DH. He has a big uppercut swing that is going to give him lots of trouble hitting for AVG.
Despite the drawback, he’s a good prospect – and his approach and power are tantalizing – but this is one of the best systems in baseball and there are a number of other guys here I like more.
Carmona
Is Carmona really toast? I was kind of shocked to not see him ranked in the projected rotation. They are usually pretty kind to these players. I still think he could be an effective pitcher. I would definitely take him over Carrasco who looked like he was throwing BP when I saw him last year.
Contract
I think it’s more they don’t think the Indians will pick up his options. If memory serves me, they signed him to a 3-4 year deal in ’07 or ’08 with club options.
Contract
They usually use guys who are projected to be FA the following year, and they know the team won’t be able to afford them. I hate how BA farms so much work out to beat writers, it is becoming impossible to compare things team to team.
by NMUWildcat027 on Jan 6, 2010 9:01 PM EST up reply actions
I don't believe Michael Brantley gets enough respect....
HE IS THE IDEAL LEADOFF HITTER!
Pretty darn valuable in my opinion.
JOSH THOLE > carlos santana
pfft
I value Keith Law’s opinion more than Ben Badler. Bottom of the barrell for BA.
JOSH THOLE > carlos santana
please explain your definition of "ideal"
because I don’t think you’re right on this one. Please convince me.
I just got on twitter.Follow me at http://twitter.com/JDSussman
I'll be trying to post lines and analysis as much as possible.
Remember: baseball guys... baseball...
well
Brantley has a career BB 14%, strikes out less than 10% of the time, and can steal bases at a high percentage. In my opinion, he is the type of guy you would want at the top of your lineup.
Am I wrong to think that a guy who can post a high OBP and strong SB %s ideal for the leadoff spot?
JOSH THOLE > carlos santana
Please...
show me a list of people with career .069 minor league ISOs who have succeeded as major league regulars. If you can name 5 in the past 20 years who played even 4 full seasons arguably productively, I’ll be shocked. Brantley has shown far less power in his minor league career than notorious slap-hitters like Chone Figgins, Jacoby Ellsbury, Willy Taveras, and Michael Bourne. These are zero-power guys at the major league level, and they all hit minor league pitching with far more authority than Brantley has.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. Brantley is this generation’s Jamal Strong (look it up, young’uns). Without a major improvement in skills, he’s a 4th outfielder at best.
Can't tell if you're serious or not...
but who do you see as a comp? Pierre?
Poster formerly known as artie
The recent years of Chone Figgins are a better comp.
Pierre has never had an above-average walk rate, and is a(n intentionally?) misleading comparison.
would you say the same about Ellsbury?
What’s a good comp? The SB thing really does make it tough, because you can count the guys on one hand that have the ability to steal 70.
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by ProspectTube.com on Jan 7, 2010 5:25 PM EST up reply actions
I think Ellsbury's bat > Podsednik's
Ellsbury is more than a slap hitter, even though he hasnt shown a whole lot yet. See my post above.
As I asserted above, if Ellsbury played in Yankee Stadium instead of Fenway there would be little question about his power and the difference between him and guys like Borbon and Brantley. Here is his spray chart:
http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/individual_player_hitting_chart.jsp?c_id=bos&playerID=453056&statType=1
His power is brutally cut off by Fenway’s RF and deep CF.
that's true
you would think that RF at Fenway does hurt him, but I recall having this debate with someone else and noted his home/road splits, which actually goes against the conventional wisdom of RF hurting LHB.
AWAY – 674 AB, 9 HR, 381 SLG
HOME – 620 AB, 11 HR, 450 SLG
That was surprising to me. I just don’t see him getting much loft either in his swing, and if I recall, scouts questioned that throughout his minor league career.
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by ProspectTube.com on Jan 7, 2010 6:34 PM EST up reply actions
3/18/08:
“He’s got a lot of development left,” said general manager Theo Epstein. "A couple of things on Jacoby. One is to bring his BP swing into games. If you watch him in BP, he’s really developed a classic swing. A natural loft and backspin. The ball jumps off his bat
“In the game, sometimes he doesn’t quite have the same approach. He can be late in the games. He can cut his swing off a little bit.
“That’s the natural evolution of any young hitter – to bring a good BP swing into the game in different parts of the strike zone. Some guys never figure it out. Some guys it takes weeks, years, and we’ll see where Jacoby goes.
“He has a combination of athleticism and aptitude. I think it will happen with him. It’s a matter of when. I think he can be a good player even before he makes that adjustment.
“Once he can take that good swing into the game with him, he’ll be able to drive the ball consistently and take his game to another level.
http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2008/03/18/hes_central_to_sox_plans/
He obviously doesnt have a high power ceiling though – but he has a much more well rounded swing than someone like Brantley.
Oh
as for the splits, Ellsbury does use all fields, but his HR power is mostly to pull
Fenways park factor consistently dampen HRs but boost doubles a lot (and offense in general). The 2009 park factors were HR: 0.964 (21st), 2B: 1.370 (1st). Its around neutral for 3B. Its about the same in previous years: http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor/_/year/2008/sort/doublesFactor
So, his speed and Fenway’s weird dimensions help his overall slugging a little, but its taking HRs unaturally away b/c of his power swing combined with the way the park naturally surpresses HRs, which would make his overall SLG look better if he played in a neutral park. No doubt the wall is also turning many of his hits down the line in LF (If you look at the hit chart again) from 3B into 2B. So he takes a hit there, too. He slugged .415 this year, but in a neutral context I could see .430 or .440 perhaps and he’s still young and getting better, especially at recognizing pitches he can drive.
Let me be clear on this, too
Im not saying Ellsbury is a power hitter whose HRs are hid by Fenway. He’s not much of a power hitter. Im just saying he lost a few there every year, as well as triples down the line towards the Monster.
I dont believe that to be true
Even if it was, Fenway still suppresses HRs as a ballpark (and thats assuming my argument that Fenway is a particularly poor fit for his HR swing is wrong).
Pesky Pole
Overall, it has little impact because of the dimensions to the bullpen, if that makes sense.
As for Ellsbury, I’m not saying he is what he is at the age of 26. I just see improvements coming via increased plate discipline and not power. I read Theo’s quote, and I buy the explanation. But at the same time, we are talking about a rather large sample size which points to limited power. By no means do I consider myself a hitting mechanics guru, but my eyes tell me Ellsbury’s swing is not one that will produce much more than 10-15 HR power.
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by ProspectTube.com on Jan 7, 2010 9:09 PM EST up reply actions
Intentionally misleading?
Come on, we’re discussing prospects here. I have no interest in tanking Brantley or any other prospect just for the sake of trashing them. I may argue their relative value, but really, I don’t care enough just to trash someone.
I mentioned Pierre because he has some speed, has almost a 350 OBA for his career in the majors.
Poster formerly known as artie
Hm...
Q: What do Chone Figgins, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Scott Podsednik all have in common?
A: They all hit for more power in the minor leagues than Michael Brantley.
Seriously guys. A a high minor-league walk rate and ZERO power is a skill set that virtually never transfers to the major leagues. If a guy can’t hit the ball hard enough to make pitchers hesitate before they pound the strike zone, he’ll have a very, very hard time maintaining a good walk rate in the majors, negating his only supposed skill.
You don’t need a ton of power to succeed, but you need some. Brantley’s never shown he has any. He’s not an ideal leadoff candidate. He’s Ezequiel Carrera with bloodlines.
On second thought...
now that I think about it, that comparison’s really unfair to Carrera, whose eye is much better than Brantley’s (even if Brantley’s a better baserunner).
Alex White is going to sneak up on some people
Looking back through BA’s draft coverage, White started the year as one of the top college starters after Strasburg. He’s got a good, heavy fastball and 2 plus breaking balls when they are on.
The group think seems out on him this year but I think he’s going to turn some heads next year.
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