AL Starting Pitching Sophomores - Part 2 - The Aces of Tomorrow
by The Congo Hammer on Jan 5, 2010 8:17 PM EST
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PrintHere are the top tier guys that I didn't mention in my last post so I can mention in this post. Worry not, there are PLENTY of them. These guys will probably be the aces of tomorrow and have more long-term promise than guys like Mazzaro or Rzep or even Cecil. They could all concievably be strong #2s or aces at some point. Here they are:
Derek Holland - Was rushed to the majors, and had an over 6 ERA, but had an excellent K rate and an average walk rate. Occasionally flashed brilliance but was inconsistent, and showed that his stuff should play at any level.
Brett Anderson - Although arguably the most MLB-ready of the A's prospects, made an early debut and struggled mightily at first, but put it together the 2nd half with strong starts and a great K rate. Does he have true ace upside?
Chris Tillman - The 21-year old did great in Triple-A and earned a late call-up, but was rather inconsistent, didn't last deep into games or dominate. Had an okay K/BB and K/9, and should be great in time, but how long will it take?
Rick Porcello - The 20-year-old was thrust into the rotation in a highly criticized move, but held his own and had a sub 4 ERA, though his K rate was mediocre. Could be a Verlander case because his stuff is great and the Ks should rise.
Brian Matusz - Technically 5 1/3 innings away from being a soph but belongs in this discussion. Dominated the minors at all levels, was good in the majors, strong K/BB and occasional dominance. Matusz/Tillman are a strong 1-2
Wade Davis - had a slow climb through the minors and is 24 now but showed he could dominate immediately. Had a great K/9 and K/BB. Kinda gets lost in discussion due to guys like Price, but I think he could be a Jered Weaver type.
Trevor Cahill - Already talked about him in the last poll, but as a he was formerly pegged as a future ace among these guys, I felt obliged to include him in the discussion. Poor K/BB, young, meh fastball, room for improvement?
David Price - Everyone's favorite burgeoning ace had a solid but unspectacular full season for the Rays. Had good but not great K/BB & mediocre ERA but started putting it together late in the season. Will he live up to the hype in '10?
Neftali Feliz - Pitched out of the bullpen, but has a good shot of being a starter in 2010. Was great in minors and dominant out of bullpen though we wore down late season. How will his stuff and stamina transition to starting?
How would you rank them based on your predictions for their 2010 seasons? How would you rank them in terms of projected career numbers? Who is the most underrated/overrated? Discuss.
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I'm surprised no one has voted for Price.
I chose Anderson, but I believe Price will develop into a true ace.
"When Justin Upton faces Lincecum, I think Christ might appear in the heavens, and the world will end." -JakeFree
How would you rank them for 2010 and the future? This is hella tough.
For 2010
1. Brett Anderson
2. David Price
3. Wade Davis
4. Neftali Feliz
5. Brian Matusz
6. Rick Porcello
7. Derek Holland
8. Trevor Cahill
9. Chris Tillman
For Career:
1. David Price
2. Rick Porcello
3. Brian Matusz
4. Neftali Feliz
5. Brett Anderson
6. Derek Holland
7. Trevor Cahill
8. Wade Davis
9, Chris Tillman
The 2008 Rogelio Moret League Fantasy Baseball Champions!
by The Congo Hammer on Jan 5, 2010 8:32 PM EST reply actions
personal list
For 2010
1. Brett Anderson
2. Brian Matusz
3. Rick Porcello
4. Derek Holland
5. David Price
6. Wade Davis
7. Chris Tillman
8. Trevor Cahill
9. Neftali Feliz
For Career:
1. David Price
2. Brian Matusz
3. Brett Anderson
4. Rick Porcello
5. Trevor Cahill
6. Wade Davis
7. Derek Holland
8. Neftali Feliz
9, Chris Tillman
my list would be
For 2010:
1) Anderson
2) Matusz
3) Price
4) Porcello
5) Davis
6) Tillman
7) Feliz
8) Holland
9) Cahill
Career:
1) Anderson
2) Matusz
3) Price
4) Porcello
5) Tillman
6) Davis
7) Holland
8) Cahill
9) Feliz
I just feel like Feliz ends up in the pen.
for 2010:
1. Price
2. Anderson
3. Porcello
4. Matusz
5. Davis
6. Feliz
7. Tillman
8. Holland
9. Cahill
Career:
1. Price
2. Matusz
3. Anderson
4. Feliz
5. Davis
6. Porcello
7. Tillman
8. Holland
9. Cahill
by walnut falcons on Jan 6, 2010 4:44 PM EST up reply actions
Career...
Porcello
Holland
Anderson
Matusz
Feliz
Tillman
Price
Cahill
Davis
Overrated: Price
Underrated: Holland
I don't think Price
Is overrated.
He’s not far removed from being the top prospect in baseball, and didn’t have a bad season last year. I still love his abilities.
+1
I think he will have a big 2010 season
by Jordan Tuwiner on Jan 5, 2010 10:15 PM EST up reply actions
Mine
This is pretty difficult.
For 2010:
1) Anderson
2) Price
3) Porcello
4) Feliz
5) Holland
6) Tillman
7) Matusz
8) Cahill
9) Davis
Career:
1) Feliz
2) Price
3) Matusz
4) Porcello
5) Holland
6) Anderson
7) Tillman
8) Cahill
9) Davis
Matusz will 100% be better than Tillman in 2010
by Jordan Tuwiner on Jan 5, 2010 10:16 PM EST up reply actions
pretty interchangeable
for me. I wouldn’t have much of a debate about that. I like Matusz better long term.
Same. But Matusz is more polished right now
So he should be better in 2010
by Jordan Tuwiner on Jan 5, 2010 10:33 PM EST up reply actions
Career
1. Anderson
2. Matusz
3. Price
4. Porcello
5. Feliz
6. Holland
7. Cahill
8. Davis
9. Tillman
These are some pretty damn good pitchers
15 years from now
if we’re all here, god willing, i’d be fascinated to see how these lists turned out.
I have been playing all of my dynasty leagues in anticipation for 2012
Pretty foolproof strategy
You’re name has 2k9 in it — what are you some 8 year-old who makes Pillsbury Doughboy cookies and jerks off to that bullshit video game with Tim Lincecum on the cover--
Frederick0220
IMO
Anderson will easily have the best 2010/Career out of any of those pitchers listed. I would willing to bet lotsa money that Anderson gets Cy Young consideration next year
Jack "The Must, Just has no Rust, ain't no Bust, after him the ladies Lust, turns pitchers into Dust, likes his pizza with no Crust" Cust
not if he goes about success as unnoticed as he did this year
him not winning ROY was a travesty, what is worse is that discussions didn’t really center around him. If he is in Oakland, unless he sets the world on fire, he wont be getting that much consideration. Shame, too.
I'm having a third list coming soon
For more bottom of the barrel guys. Tommy Hunter and others will be there too.
The 2008 Rogelio Moret League Fantasy Baseball Champions!
by The Congo Hammer on Jan 5, 2010 11:38 PM EST up reply actions
yeA
bergeson and hunter dont belong on the same tier
Very tough
I went Feliz. Ive already covered why I like him so much elsewhere. If you’re looking for the most “wow” guy on this list its Feliz.
For 2010
1. Brett Anderson
2. Brian Matusz
3. Rick Porcello
4. Neftali Feliz
5. Derek Holland
6. David Price
7. Chris Tillman
8. Wade Davis
9. Trevor Cahill
For Career:
1. Neftali Feliz
2. Brett Anderson
3. Chris Tillman
4. Brian Matusz
5. Rick Porcello
6. Derek Holland
7. David Price
8. Trevor Cahill
9. Wade Davis
Let me just say these lists are positively painful. These guys are all too good. I cant believe I listed Cahill and Davis NINTH in a list. A lot of these are just too close to call for me.
Must Say I'm Suprised
Considering the myriad of talented players on this list, there seems to be a whopping consensus on Anderson. Not saying I don’t guess it’ll be him too, but it’s surprising that someone like Price didn’t beat him out. What do you predict Anderson’s 2010 stat line to be anyway?
The 2008 Rogelio Moret League Fantasy Baseball Champions!
by The Congo Hammer on Jan 6, 2010 1:00 AM EST reply actions
Anderson's 2010
Something like 200 IP, 15-20 wins, 3.20-3.40 ERA
Jack "The Must, Just has no Rust, ain't no Bust, after him the ladies Lust, turns pitchers into Dust, likes his pizza with no Crust" Cust
I am not
Anderson was clearly the best pitcher in 2009 amongst this group, so it stands to reason that the public would pick him to have the best 2010.
Now, from a career standpoint I agree with Alskor – give me Neftali. The guy has such sick stuff and smooth, easy mechanics (i.e. repeatable delivery). I think he is still learning how to harness all his pitches. Once that command improves, watch out.
same on the last year's rookies list
These results are very similar to how these guys came out on the last year’s rookies, with Anderson clearly number 1 among the AL group. The one difference is that we didn’t include either Feliz or Matusz because technically next year is their rookie year. Regarding Holland, I think he has good mechanics and the potential to have very good control. He looks like he can be a top of the rotation starter, at least a #2. My one concern though is that early in the year he was also showing good velocity, consistently sitting 93-95. But, by the end of the year he was more in a 89- 92 range which isn’t bad for a lefty but also isn’t eliter. While it is true that he relieved early and started later I don’t think that is the entire explanation. We’ll see which Derek Holland shows up in the spring.
The PitchFX gun is f'd up in Arlington.
always 1.5-2MPH slow
"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.
by Kinslerhomer on Jan 8, 2010 12:45 AM EST up reply actions
Wow. You're very correct.
I was kind of skeptical. it seems every team’s fans think their gun is slow. I remember Yankees fans at nyyfans claiming Wang threw 99mph, but that the YES gun was slow (its actually one of the most inflated Ive seen, or at least used to be.)… but it appears that you’re 100% right.
I put together a little chart (background taken from fangraphs). This is Holland’s PitchFX by game. Blue dots = Away Appearances. Green dots = Home Appearances. (Remember the first few appearances are harder b/c he was pitching in relief)
Random or noise? Can’t 100% rule it out, but by far the most logical explanation is Texas’s gun is off.
Uh… on that note, let me just say “Damn Neftali Feliz, You Scary.”
And it's not just Rangers fans that think it
other teams announcers and fans notice it when they come to Texas. The guns must be in a bad spot or something.
"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.
i just got a brett anderson jersey
im very excited, ill be the only person in NJ with one. THis better work out better than my carmona jersey
Hmmm...
I’m really interested by the lists that have Anderson 1/2 in 2010 and middle of the pack for career. I would guess that means some people expect him to have a very good season next year but little progression (i.e. getting better) beyond that?
by nobodyinparticular on Jan 6, 2010 2:43 AM EST reply actions
I personally don't think he'll need
much progression beyond next season to be near the top of these lists. The guy was an ace for the entire 2nd half last season and already displays the stuff and mentality of a veteran pitcher.
It’s too difficult to rank them, but a few thoughts:
-Feliz will be the best if he can stick in the rotation.
-Davis is being underrated some of these lists
- Tillman and Porcello are being overrated on some of these lists, although I love the upside of both
- Cahill is a clear #9 for me, although I he probably belongs in this tier
Feliz/Anderson/Matusz/Holland/Davis/Price
Tillman/Cahill/Porcello
What about Zimmerman and Hanson?
Hmmm
When did Zimmermann and Hanson get traded to the AL?
re Hmmm
I believe dkdc was looking to the future; once Zimm and Hanson (mostly Hanson) start dominating the NL, then Yankees will buy them. I guess then it’s not a trade though – it’s just straight up CA$H.
nope
I just didn’t even notice it was AL only, which doesn’t speak well for the NL crop of sophomores.
Does anyone other than Zimmerman and Hanson belong in the same tier as these nine AL guys?
Porcello
I think the comp to Verlander isn’t that great. Verlander’s a strikeout machine, and Porcello is more of a GB pitcher who can (and should) get Ks, but I think he’s GB first. Kind of a lesser Halladay. AND PLEASE DON’T READ THAT AS IF I’M SAYING PORCELLO IS THE NEXT HALLADAY, just the same TYPE of pitcher.
K Rate and stuff
When Verlander was a 23 year old rookie, he fanned 124 in 186 innings. A lot of people questioned where the K’s were, especially with his arsenal, and questioned whether he could develop into an ace. Yeah, that is a better rate than Porcello, but remember Porcello was only 20 during his rookie year. There are numerous people who think Porcello’s going to fan a TON more people as he matures.
this.
People forget that Vermonster really didn’t K many people in his first few seasons despite the electric stuff. Porcello has similarly nasty stuff that should produce a similar result, just give him a few years.
The 2008 Rogelio Moret League Fantasy Baseball Champions!
by The Congo Hammer on Jan 7, 2010 1:17 AM EST up reply actions
granted i don't see THAT much of the Tigers...
but I think I’ve seen enough of both Porcello and Verlander to know that Verlander has far superior stuff. it’s well within the realm of possibility that Porcello’s K totals go up, but I’d be stunned if he even came close to what Verlander has done with regards to strikeouts.
baseball rules.
I'll take Anderson....
and run.
Porcello and Matusz wouldn’t be bad to have either, but Anderson looked legitimately special in the 2nd half last year.
Anderson
Will in all likelihood be the best pitcher of this group, certainly in the long run, and possibly next season.
But I’m going with Porcello for 2010.
Who loves orange soda?
There is no aspect of pitching at which Brett Anderson is not already above-average at age 22
(except for fielding bunts, I’ll grant you)
O'Hara: Detective Lassiter is literally on fire.
Spencer: What kind of fire are we talking about-- "Michael Jackson in the Pepsi commercial" fire, or "misusing the word literally" fire?
Clay Buchholz
I realize Buchholz is a couple years older, but anybody interested in comparing & contrasting Buchholz with Anderson?
The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.
Too close to call for me.
If you asked me this I would probably look thoughful and just stare off into the distance for awhile. I love both these guys a tremendous amount. Probably my two favorite young pitchers behind (obviously) Lincecum and King Felix.
Maybe slight, slight edge to Anderson (and really only saying that so I dont look like a homer!) – b/c he’s more or less a finished product and actually did what we all hoped he was capable of this year, while Buchholz only looked like it maybe 3/4 of the year. Then again, the results arent quite as different as youd think at first glance, as Buchholz pitched in the AL East and in Fenway while Anderson pitched in the Coliseum. Then again, Anderson was a rookie while Buchholz had a couple starts in 07 and a half season in 08. Really, too close to call. The kind of thing Id go back and forth on and could give you a different answer each day if you asked me.
Both have phenomenal control and command. Both are very good athletes. Both threw pretty hard this year (AVG fastball – Buch: 93.5, Anderson 92.6) and were throwing harder by the end of the season (Last start avg fastball: Buch: 94.69, Anderson 93.39). Both were pitching out of their minds at the end of the year and looked like Aces (with some blips of course). Both have top notch secondary pitches they control well. Both have plus curves – though Buchholz with his 12/6 hammer curve has a plus plus one – and they both are comfortable with and capable of throwing them for strikes. Both have changeups that are plus and they have nice feel for the pitches. Both have a great mound presence.
Its ridiculously close.
anderson...
he had the Best Slider in MLB last year… 21 year old with the best slider in the mlb
This sort of rationale keeps coming up
Its super impressive, yes. BUT are we talking about who had the best 2009? Or who will be better going forward? Clearly, Anderson was better in 09. We dont need to even discuss that. Its eminently clear. Pitch values havent existed long enough to really know their predictive value. For example, the best slider in 2008? Sabathia at +33.9. In 2009? +1.1.
Injury concern
Anyone else concerned a bit about Anderson’s health? He reminds me so much of Liriano—mid/high 90’s fastball + a wipeout high 80’s/low 90’s slider. Yeah, their deliveries differ, but to throw that hard, that young, with a slider being your go to pitch….well, i love the kid, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him on a flight to Birmingham by the end of the year.
Question for you guys
Outside of Porcello, I haven’t got an opportunity to see many of these guys pitch here in KC.
I’m wondering about the upsides of Derek Holland and Chris Tillman. I haven’t been able to see much vid. on them. Does anyone have some comparisons for them, their best pitch, etc? thanks.
keith laws semi take
Josh (Oakland)Please rank these pictures who made their debut in 2009- are they all #1 starter potential? B. Anderson, T. Hanson, R. Porcello, B. Matusz, C. Tillman, W. Davis, T. Cahill, M. Latos, M. Baumgarner. Thanks- love the dish…
Klaw: Anderson, Hanson, Porcello all clearly project as 1s to me. Matusz isn’t far behind that, nor is Latos. Bumgarner’s major velo drop concerns me.
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