Top 15 Red Sox Prospects for 2010
by alskor on Jan 5, 2010 5:29 AM EST
Email
Print
A NOTE ON MY GRADING: My Grades will not correspond exactly with John's nor are they meant to. I am perfectly willing to favor upside and tools sometimes and I dont need as much data as him. Nor do I value floor quite so highly. I try to focus more on "not lying to myself." What do I mean by this? I mean that when I focus too much on data or what a guy has shown so far over his upside and tools I tend to overvalue floor in ranking them. I always try to ask myself: "If I had to choose one of these guys, right now, would I actually choose Player X over Player Z?" It's an easy trap to fall into with prospects. For instance, I did a list in July or August and I lied to myself. I knew I liked Westmoreland more than Kelly, Kalish and Reddick, yet I listed him behind them anyway. If I were to grade the way John does I feel I would constantly be "lying to myself" and would end up with results that don't match how I actually feel about players.
Im sure someone will click on this fanshot, not read my little explanation here and see the grades and think "what an effing homer! Westmoreland an A-?!?" The fact is there really arent that many prospects I would rather have than Ryan Westmoreland and Aaron Hicks. Theyre Top 20 guys for me. Grading them lower than an A- would lead to inconsistencies when I rank them overall, even though I know they dont look like typical A- guys in John's system. Im in a good place with that and I hope you can look past that when you read this. I would have to have to use a non-letter grade ranking system. Enjoy.
1. OF Ryan Westmoreland A-
2. RHP Casey Kelly B+
3. CF Ryan Kalish B+
4. CF/RF Josh Reddick B+
5. 1B Lars Anderson B
6. RHP Junichi Tazawa B
7. RHP Michael Bowden B-
8. CF Reymond Fuentes B-
9. 1B Anthony Rizzo B-
10. RHP Stolmy Pimental B-
11. SS Jose Iglesias B-
12. CF Che-Hsuan Lin C+
13. SS/2B Derrick Gibson C+
14. LHP Felix Doubront C+
15. RHP Alex Wilson C+
via multimedia.heraldinteractive.com
1. OF Ryan Westmoreland A-: Tools are just off the charts. Extremely high ceiling player with great polish and poise. He flies around the field. His arm is phenomenal. He squares the ball up extremely well and has plus power in a compact, pretty swing. The kind of player that when you see this guy play you can immediately tell he's the best player on the field. If he had struggled in his debut I would have still loved him. The way he impressed with a (SSS) .300/.400/.500 in an advanced league for a high school player from a Northern, cold weather state just sealed the deal. Beyond that, everyone who saw him was wowed by him. High potential to be a special player.
One scout described Westmoreland as having "the tools of a top-five high school pick, with the advanced skills of a college player." Supremely athletic, Westmoreland has average power with projection for more, as well as a keen understanding of the strike zone and a silky smooth swing - Kevin Goldstein
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9762
2. RHP Casey Kelly B+: He is extremely polished but still very projectable. Too much is made of his (lack of) velocity. Many guys with similar velocity and projection avoid the same scrutiny. There is plenty of reason to think he will increase it, too, but the downside isnt worse than many top prospects (Hellickson comes to mind). He has a great pitchers frame and impresses scouts. His stuff is excellent. Fantastic curve, change that projects as plus and his 89-93mph fastball moves like Josh Beckett's. He also has great control and command of his pitches (needs to improve touch on his curve, but came along strong this year). As a 19 year old he pitched 95 IP over two A ball leagues in his pro debut. Only 65 hits in those 95 IP and lots of groundballs.
December 30, 2009:
Ryan (Arlington, VA)
Do you agree with John that Casey Kelly is a better prospect right now than Martin Perez? Given age and level, I just don't see it.
Jim Callis (2:45 PM)
I had Kelly at No. 21 and Perez at No. 24, so they're basically even in my book. I think Kelly has a deeper repertoire, better feel and has proven himself one level higher.
http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/30095/mlb-with-jim-callis
October 14, 2009:
Tom (MA)
Does Kelly throw hard enough to win in the AL East?
Jim Callis (3:01 PM)
Sure. His fastball is 88-93 mph, which is fine, and plays way up because of life and command.
http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/28858/mlb-with-jim-callis
Otto (CA)
Is Casey Kelly a soft tosser? I read somewhere that his fastball is mediocre.
Keith Law (1:43 PM)
You read wrong. Solid-average with two future-plus pitches (curve and change). And uncanny command for his age.
http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/27357
3. CF Ryan Kalish B+: Kalish was a top 100 prospect three years ago but suffered a wrist injury that lingered and sapped his power in 2008. The power returned in 2009 and Kalish also looked good enough defensively to project as a CFer. He has great tools. Plenty of both power and speed. He also has a fantastic, advanced approach at the plate and takes a lot of walks. I think he's one of the more underrated prospects in the game.
Kalish can make an in-game impact in a variety of ways. He has enough bat speed and barrel awareness to hit .280-.300 annually, as well as the power and speed to deliver 20/20 seasons. His approach at the plate has improved each year to the point where it's a true asset to his game, and he plays a solid outfield. - Kevin Goldstein
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9762
4. CF/RF Josh Reddick B+: As much as I love Kalish's approach, I dont really consider Reddick's a problem. I favor Kalish because of the approach and I also think he profiles better as a CF while Reddick profiles as a decent CF but better in RF. Cannon for an arm. Reddick is a good athlete with a good amount of speed and even more power. He's a bit of a hacker, but has gotten more patient each year and improved by leaps and bounds in 2009. He also makes his aggressive approach work well as his ability to square up pitches anywhere near the plate has been described as similar to Dustin Pedroia's. He makes a lot of contact - and solid contact. Nice, compact swing and lots of raw power. Like Kalish, he doesnt seem to get the recognition he deserves in prospect circles.
Strong kid with a plus arm, great plate coverage and line-drive power. He takes a very short path to the ball and whips the bat through the zone, so when he makes contact, it's hard. - Keith Law
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=3851676&name=law_keith
5. 1B Lars Anderson B: I've made my case for Anderson a couple times on here, so I won't go through it all again. He still has fantastic approach at the plate, excellent contact ability(projects as a .300 hitter with little or no platoon split) and plus plus raw power. Also he is still very young and was one of the younger players in AA. Im still betting on the tools. Prospect development is rarely linear and pretty. Heck, the love for Lars pre-09 was more scouting than stat based.
While Anderson has combined plus power, the ability hit for average, and patience in the past, only the latter showed up in 2009, as his understanding of the strike zone is excellent, and he'll rarely chase bad pitches. He plays a good first base and runs well for his size, and he's athletic enough that some wonder if he could handle left field. - Kevin Goldstein
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9762
6. RHP Junichi Tazawa B: He's a pitchability righty who works in the zone, but man what pitchability. He throws a very good slider and curve (both flash plus) - and he can throw them for strikes in any count, as well as take stuff off them. His fastball is a little straight, but he mostly pitches off his breaking balls. The fastball isnt bad or anything - he throws low 90's (89-92) and he paints with it. He has impeccable command and control of all his pitches. There's really a lot to like here. His stuff has been underrated. He also made it to the majors in his first pro American season - and that's saying something, considering he's not your typical Japanese import. He's only 23 and hadnt pitched in NPB. I see a #3 starter.
The classic Japanese arm equipped with as many as five pitches, all of which he throws for strikes. - Kevin Goldstein
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9219
7. RHP Michael Bowden B-: Bowden is a sort of lesser version of Tazawa. The secondary stuff is not as good and his mechanics arent great. He sort of short arms the ball - though, to be fair Tazawa has a little whipping action and neither is much of a concern and they both repeat it well. Bowden hasnt really "peaked" or gotten worse - guys around him are just leapfrogging him. Bowden's ceiling projection has gone down a bit each year, I suppose, but not a whole lot. This placement is far more about other guys than Bowden. He does lots of things well and is going to be a decent big league pitcher.
Bowden combines plus command with solidly average stuff. His 88-92 mph fastball has good life, and he mixes in both a curve and slider, which flash as average. His changeup is his best secondary pitch, with excellent depth and fade, and despite the overpowering arsenal, he's very aggressive and goes after hitters. Bowden has a big frame, a delivery that is funky, yet it’s repeatable and without stress, and he's stayed healthy throughout his career. - Kevin Goldstein
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9762
8. CF Reymond Fuentes B-: I really just love his tools. Great frame and I (among many) see power projection in that swing and body. He's a superb athlete.
Athletic center fielder plays the game at full tilt, the type of player that will make a lot of highlight reels. Wiry frame. Line drive hitter, makes excellent contact, without a ton of present power. Excellent swing mechanics. Plus plus speed. Excellent range and glove in the outfield, projects to stay in center. Fluid, gets good jumps on the ball.
http://soxprospects.com/players/fuentes-reymond.htm
Fuentes is a wiry, 6 foot, 160 pound outfielder with surprising power. He is from Puerto Rico and is said to have blazing speed – clocking a 6.3 in the 60 yard dash.
Fuentes profiles similarly to Jacoby Ellsbury in a lot of ways including being a left-handed hitter, excellent defensively, leadoff hitter, and has the ability to hit to all fields.
http://soxteaparty.com/2009/06/09/with-the-28th-pick-in-the-2009-mlb-draft/
9. 1B Anthony Rizzo B-: I havent the slightest idea why this guy doesnt get more credit. He's a very good prospect. Excellent defender and a very good bat with some upside. Power ceiling concerns me, but there's lots of reason to think the power is coming. Why don't I have him higher if he's so good? League average-ish 1B don't particularly thrill me. Rizzo is a great defender over there and a good baserunner, though. He also is patient and will hit for a high AVG. So, fwiw, he's not some big plodder who is going to make it or break it on whether his power comes. I like him over a good number of popular 1B prospects that get a lot more pub.
Scouting the Sally has a good scouting report if you follow the link from the second quote below.
Rizzo is a good offensive player with a chance to be a great one. He has a quick bat, a good sense of the strike zone, and should hit for average with good on-base percentages all the way up. Scouts are nearly universal in the belief that many of the 37 doubles he hit in 445 at-bats this year with turn into home runs down the road. He's a fantastic defensive first baseman who prevented countless errors by saving bad throws. - Kevin Goldstein
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9762
In 2010, Rizzo will likely be a borderline top 100 prospect and firmly entrenched in the Boston Red Sox top ten. He profiles as a solid all-around first baseman who does everything well, but lacks a standout tool.
http://www.scoutingthesally.com/2009/06/scouting-report-anthony-rizzo-1b-red.html
10. RHP Stolmy Pimental B-: Solid all around and a good bit of projection left in him. This is one guy who Im picking to make a huge jump in the next year. He will be shooting up prospect lists very soon. When I talk about "not lying to myself"... well, pretty sure Im doing that with Pimental. I really like him.
Nick (Washington Dc)
Hi Jim, love your work. Can you give a quick 2-3 sentence scouting report of Stolmy Pimentel? Other than having a great name, what's to like?
Jim Callis (2:41 PM)
19-year-old righthander, advanced beyond his years. Fastball, curveball, changeup all show potential to be solid or better.
http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/29488
Right-hander Stolmy Pimentel (A-) has a solid though average fastball, an average to above-average changeup, an improving curveball, good control, and plenty of room on his 6-foot-3, 186-pound frame to fill out and add velocity. - Keith Law
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=3855023&name=law_keith
Pimentel has a nice pitcher's frame and a high ceiling. Relies mainly on his 90-93 mph four-seam fastball, but also makes use of an very good curveball and an excellent changeup. Just starting to develop a two-seam cutter as well. His fastball hits the mid-90s when he reaches back, and he may be able to sustain that velocity over full starts when he grows into his frame. Pimentel's changeup is advanced for his age, sitting between 78-82 mph, and has the potential to be a wipeout pitch.
http://soxprospects.com/players/pimentel-stolmy.htm
11. SS Jose Iglesias B-: Im very worried he won't hit much, but the defense should be spectacular. In fact, many feel he could be one of the best fielding MLB shortstops today. Still, how high is the ceiling here? He has a nice looking line drive swing but it doesnt look like there's much power there. Its not truly a slappy swing and he likes to pull the ball, but he doesnt get much loft or backspin either.
It would be interesting to compare him to Alcides Escobar. Do I think he could hit as much as Escobar? Probably, yes. Of course, Im really not convinced Escobar is as good a prospect as many believe.
Iglesias’ defensive work can only be described as special, with one scout describing his pre-game workouts in the Arizona Fall League as "the equivalent of a live-action instructional video on everything a shortstop should do." His range is plus to both sides, his actions are notable for their speed and smoothness, while his arm is both strong and accurate. Offensively, he does have some bat speed, and scouts see a good rhythm in his swing, and he's even surprised some with occasional power. -Kevin Goldstein
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9762
12. CF Che-Hsuan Lin C+: Im not a huge believer in his bat. I keep reading that scouts think his power will show up (KG said " scouts think he could grow into 15-20 home-run power down the road"). That said, he will hit enough and has enough tools and polished skills all around that the entire package plays up. Love the glove. He's a really superb defender.
Lin is a fantastic athlete, with one of the better arms in the system and the kind of speed to steal 40 bases annually. He has a quick bat and surprising pop for his size thanks to strong wrists that whip the bat through the zone. The Red Sox love his makeup, and he’s dedicated to his game and takes well to instruction. - Kevin Goldstein
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6902
13. SS/2B Derrick Gibson C+: I've never been a huge fan because I dont see any power at all in his swing. This year he's shown he's polished and good enough everywhere else to overcome that. His other tools are fairly impressive. I see projection left everywhere but home run hitting. He's got plenty of range for short but his arm is very fringy. Some feel the problem is his throwing mechanics. If he's not a SS, how good is he, really? I could definitely see a nice leadoff type here and if he stays at SS he could be a very good player.
Gibson already has top-of-the-order skills with outstanding plate discipline and a quick, single-plane swing that laces line drives to all fields. He's an above-average runner with great instincts, and he understands his strength and limitations, focusing on getting on base and scoring runs. He has good instincts defensively and plays with a lot of energy.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9762
14. LHP Felix Doubront C+: Solid, if unspectacular. Liked him more last year. He's good enough, but he's a lot closer to just another guy than he is to something special. Could be a decent back end starter if he keeps improving across the board.
After battling through injuries in 2007, Venezuelan lefty Felix Doubront struck out over a batter per inning and more than held his own in a trio of California League starts as a 20-year-old. He doesn't have overwhelming stuff, but his outstanding command and deceptive delivery are enough for most to make big-league projections for him.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8048
Doubront utilizes an 87-91 mph fastball, a very good 79-81 mph changeup with screwball action, and a developing mid-70s curveball. Flawless and fluid downward pitching motion with excellent control. Deceptive delivery, hitters don't pick up the ball until late, causing his fastball to look a little faster. May have the ability to add some velocity.
http://soxprospects.com/players/doubront-felix.htm
15. RHP Alex Wilson C+: Yes, his ARL was a concern, but for a guy who was old for his league he did exactly what he should - dominated. I like his repertoire and pitchability. Decent chance he ends up in relief, but Id still like him there. He's a power righty who was formerly highly regarded in college at Texas A&M before undergoing TJ. Excellent fastball and slider. Needs to develop his change more to remain a starter. Either way he's got very good stuff and could move quickly.
He has two average-to-plus Major League pitches in his slider and fastball, and at times, each is a solid plus pitch. Both have the potential to be even better down the road as he further distances himself from Tommy John (ulnar collateral ligament replacement) surgery.
http://www.texasleaguers.com/home/2009/3/16/scouting-alex-wilson-texas-am.html
OTHERS (In no particular order. Just guys I wanted to comment on)
HM. C Luis Exposito - I see a backup catcher (albeit a good one). Neither his approach, defense or bat are really all that great. He's ok, but with zero impact potential and no real impressive strengths I just can't rate him that highly.
HM. SS Yamaico Navarro - A poor man's Iglesias. I kept going back and forth over whether he would hit. Still not sure, but growing more pessimistic. Likely utility infielder or maybe 2nd division SS.
HM. 3B/SS David Renfroe - Nice approach and swing. I think he's definitely a 3B. For a guy that everyone calls toosly, Im not sure he really projects as all that great at anything. Need to see more of him.
HM. 3B Will Middlebrooks - I still like the tools and he's still young. Good chance he flies up the prospect lists next season.
HM. C Wagner, C Federowicz - Both are sort of flawed and profile as backup catchers. Don't impress me.
HM. C? Ryan Lavarnway - Very intriguing. He could really be something if he can stick behind the plate. Not confident at all he will do so, but he started catching late and seemingly has the tools, so who knows?
HM. RHP Madison Younginer - Raw and lots of work to do, but impressive stuff.
HM. RHP Roman Mendez- Same comment as Younginer. Love these young, raw live arms.
HM. RHP Drake Britton - Is a step behind Younginer and Mendez, and add injury history, but I like him plenty too.
HM. RHP Kyle Weiland- I like him, but he's similar to Doubront in not being great at anything. Not sure there is much projection left here either. Probably a useful MLB arm, though.
HM. 3B Michael Almanzar - In hindsght, it was a huge mistake to aggressively promote him. Still an impressive specimen. Could go either way but Im not giving up on him. His ceiling is as high as any position player besides Westmoreland.
HM. CF Pete Hissey - Good speed, good glove, good approach. Power? Not sure. Definitely raised his stock in my mind this year. Too early to tell with this guy, and the one thing the Sox have been real bad at is developing home grown power.
HM. LF/1B? Brandon Jacobs - Not sure. I do like the bat and Im very glad we signed him. He's so raw its hard to tell what to make of him. I dont like the glove, but really no idea how the bat will develop yet - and its a high ceiling bat with lots of power. Wouldnt be shocked if he a) ended up good enough on defense to be a pretty good LF; b) ended up a bad LF or 1B/DH with a tweener bat for it; or c) ended up a bad LF or 1B/DH but with a bat that fits there. All very possible.
ALSO: Kendal Volz, Jason Place, Oscar Tejeda, David Mailman, Adam Mills, Stephen Fife, Dustin Richardson, Ryan Dent, Eammon Portice, Caleb Clay, Jeremy Hazelbaker
67 comments
|
4 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
+1
great post…you should do one for all teams lol
Great List
Very good write up. Only real diffrence imo would be rizzo ahead of Fuentes, Bowden, Tazawa, and maybe Lars at this point. I would have Mendez at 15 over Wilson. No big deal pretty darn close to how I would ahve it. Like Dewey said very informitive.
Also really enjoyed reading this, and I DID read your explanation above, which was helpful.
As a Red Sox fan myself, I wrestle with Westmoreland and Kelly, largely because I am impressed with how far Kelly made it pitching this year in just half of a season. I favor youngsters with advanced offerings and an understanding of the game over pure velocity, though I’ve read plenty of work from BP and the like stressing the importance of velocity. That said, If he’s mostly 91-93 as opposed to 88-90, as he likely will be as he fills out, it’s not a concern at all. I need to really sit down and watch some video of Westmoreland because I’ve constantly had him behind your top 3.
As personal preference, I would leave Reddick a B+ and move Kalish to a B. I’m not a believer in his ability to play CF and while I know the Red Sox will value him wherever he plays because he’ll be a plus defender at a corner, I think a B is a safer grade right now with that concern.
I think I would downgrade Tazawa to a B- and Bowden to a C+, though you’ve convinced me to rank Tazawa ahead of you. My eyes have disagreed a bit with some scouting reports, as I’ve really liked his secondary offerings and his stuff. I really think Bowden is closer to a JAG than a prospect, but I think Tazawa still has something going for him.
I appreciate your caution with Iglesias, as well, though you’re justified going higher given the intention Alcides got. I was very happy to see John go with a straight B for him.
I think I’m a little bit higher on both Derrik Gibson and Alex Wilson than you are. Health is obviously a big concern, but Wilson’s got front-middle of the rotation stuff as a starter or back-end stuff as a reliever, and I’ll value that when combining it with his performance. If you asked me whether I’d have Wilson or Bowden in my system, I’d pick Wilson each time, and perhaps over Tazawa as well though it’s a tougher decision. As it concerns Gibson, his advanced understanding of the strikezone and athleticism make him a very intriguing prospect, to me. He’s a legitimate 4-tool player and I don’t think the Red Sox stress power like other organizations do. I think they’ll find a spot for him.
…Again, great job. Just looking to get some dialogue going.
great job!
I like the reading. The biggest change that I’d make (which is still small) is that I think there’s a fairly large gap between Kelly and #3 (whoever you want to put there – Kalish or Reddick). I know this is cheating, but I’d give Kelly an A— (just behind Westmoreland).
Stolmy Pimental
I can see in 50 years people talking about how Stolmy Pimental changed the game of baseball forever. Of course, that’s only because his name is so cool – it had nothing to do with his baseball skills.
Nice stuff
I just got on twitter.Follow me at http://twitter.com/JDSussman
I'll be trying to post lines and analysis as much as possible.
Remember: baseball guys... baseball...
The latest installment of the Red Sawx hype machine.
Some sources act like Kelly is the next Maddux, and Westmoreland is the next Strawberry even though their performances are at incredibley low levels and not THAT impressive. Kelly versus Perez is an example of that. I just dread having to hear about them the next three years non-stop. Hopefully they pull a Lars.
About what?
That the pay for play services cater to the teams who have the most payers? I’m not at all jealous of the Sox system.
so
what exactly was unimpressive about their performance? and what team do you root for to not be jealous of one of the deepest farm systems in the game? i think you are jealous that the red sox have arguably the best run organization in the sport.
The Rays.
Better farm system. Arguably better run (although they are run great).
What was so impressive about their performance? Kelly’s 6 k/9? So a guy that has thrown less than 100 innings since HS, hasn’t pitched above A+, doesn’t seem to project any higher than a 2-3 starter is a top 15-25 prospect? Just seems kind of premature to me.
Hey there, interesting to see you outside of DRB
To be accurate, Kelly is a 7 K/9 guy, if that makes a difference in some way.
I won’t completely disagree on the fact that Kelly and Westmoreland may have some “flavor of the month factor” going for them right now. But I strongly disagree with your take below on the “prospect experts” buying NYY and BOS hype. While I do think they may lean more favorably towards the BoSox (how could I not, given my name), my sense is this stems from an overardent admiration of Theo and the BOS org – an org which I agree is topnotch. I sense a bit of Theo crushness in the trade – not you John – where the prospect geeks imagine themselves as the young, smart GM in charge. Coupled with this fantasy, who would ever fantasize about being Brian Cashman? Plus it’s obvious Cash succeeds just because of the money, isn’t it? Okay, that was mostly joking.
But the Rays get no shortage of love in the prospect community – those upstart, frugal Rays making all those smart moves that result in FA’s like Pena (conveniently ignoring that same org signed the exact same deal with Hee Sop Choi a month or 2 prior), or trades for guys like Zobrist (yeah, everybody saw that coming), or lower round picks like Jennings, Gorgen, Cruz, or 8th rounder Moore.
Fact is the Rays position as a highly regarded prospect org is based on a handful of admittedly outstanding prospects from the last few draft years, and a number from the prior regime as well. Not that’s that’s incorrect thinking – 5 outstanding near majors ready prospects would and should make any system great, and has for the Rays for a few years running now. But how good will the system look in ‘11 if promotions and/or a few majors injuries take Jennings, Hellickson, Davis, and Brignac out of the prospect pool? And Beckham continues to perform only at his to date levels or even a bit worse in a tough hitters A+ league? And Moore’s control fails to come around significantly, or higher level hitters start showing more patience, keeping up his BB rate while reducing his K rate? And McGee continues his profile towards that of a reliever? Surely trades could well bolster the system significantly if CC, Bartlett, Pena, Balfour, Wheeler, Burrell, or even Garza are moved – but that might not bode well for ’10 competitiveness.
The fact is the Rays get at least as much hype in the prospect community as either AL East rival. And Rays fans overhype their prospects with the best of the NE crowd. NYY is 3rd – they should be, but NY’s development plan includes prospects as trade bait or gradual majors exposure (as does BOS’s to some extent) by filling in the pen, the bench, the back of the rotation. And relievers and bench fillers are the poor stepchildren in prospect ranking land, despite accounting for nearly half of active roster spots. 10 of NY’s BA ‘09 top 30 either played some in the bigs (1 in Pitt) or got a Sept callup this year – on the World Champs, not some 5th place club. And that didn’t include Ramiro Pena (who didn’t make top 30), but had more AB’s than Brignac or an injured Lowrie.
I’m not saying TB hasn’t done a fine job – they most certainly have – though I’m not convinced they’re a draft juggernaut (the next few years could tell now that they’re in the 2nd tier, though the picks they might accrue from FA’s and “repicks” this coming draft and next could cushion the blow). But I’m sure more than a few NYY and BOS fans would love to see what their orgs could do with a few top 3 picks in the draft. It just may take until trading picks is allowed. Otherwise the required steep declines of their clubs would be too high a price to pay – perhaps for all of baseball, as the resultant revenue losses in 2 of the top markets could hurt many franchises by turning the rev sharing system topsy turvy.
All that said, perhaps a little more patience should be kept re Kelly and Westmoreland, as with your Moore (command isn’t necessarily easy to master either). But Alskor explained his premise nicely – and he is a Sox Fan, so some homerness is acceptable.
Besides, why isn’t Manny Banuelos in this conversation? Much better control than Moore, a K/9 of 9+, younger than both Kelly and Moore by well over a year, and pitching in the Sally just like them (sure Kelly tasted A+ more).
For me a big factor is if you’re throwing a lot more strikes and still not getting hit a lot – of course, once the ball is hit it’s no longer the pitchers responsibility unless it clears the fence, right? BABIP (Kelly’s far the lowest, but he did have half his IP at a higher level), batted ball profiles, and some other factors:
BABIP LD% GB% FB% K/9 BB/9 FIP
Kelly (A+. LA) .230 10.7 51.6 31.9 7.26 1.68 3.04
Moore (LA) .303 14.9 45.8 32.6 12.57 5.00 3.18
Banuelos (LA) .284 14.5 43.6 33.6 8.37 2.21 2.93
Of course, some other keys:
Birthdate Hgt. Wgt.
Kelly 10/04/89 6’3" 194
Moore 06/18/89 6’2" 205
Banuelos 03/13/91 5’10’’ 155
Hmmm, projectability, scouting – gotta be the difference.
Frankly, Moore’s only real advantage is K rate, and that could at least be somewhat due to not throwing nearly as many strikes.
Anyway, sorry for the bible.
by nyyfaninlaaland on Jan 6, 2010 2:39 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
You cant actually believe that the major prospect experts cater to Red Sox and Yankee fans, do you?
I mean, they normally role their eyes and laugh at Red Sox and Yankee fans, especially Law and Goldstein. Kelly and Westmoreland are excellent prospects for a reason. Performance isnt everything – tools and skills are equally, if not more important. The point of this is to identify the best baseball players/those who will be best at the MLB level. The goal is not to find the guys who are legit prospects and put up the best minor league numbers. Im sure people are going to throw a fit again when all the top 100’s come out, b/c theyre both going to be super high. That should be fun around here.
Fwiw, I would take Perez over Kelly and was pretty surprised to find that quote. I also could swear I found one from either Manuel or Callis saying they think Kelly could be a #1 starter(!) but sadly, I cant find the chat again and tired of looking. I was just trying to find quotes that I thought showed people are way too concerned about Kelly’s velocity and that its actually pretty good. I think I did that, and got a nice smattering of guys who usually disagree on things, to boot.
You don't think they serve their economic interest by paying more mind to their bigger fanbases?
Is that activity limited solely to ESPN?
I just don’t see how a guy that was striking out 6/9 can be projected as an ace. I get that he’s athletic and has great control, but for him to be an ace on control and mastery of 4-pitches alone he has to be Maddux. There aren’t many of those. When a prospect is as far away as these two are, then there should be HUGE upside (which I guess I see more with Westmoreland than Kelly) potential. It’s hard enough to project 19 YO in A ball that have any track record. It’s even harder to project them with a very limited (Westmoreland) or not all that impressive (the low k totals) track record especially if you have to ignore big injury concerns or velocity concerns. That’s just a lot of guess-work IMO.
No, I dont.
I think that’s craziness.
First full pro year for Kelly (played a few games at SS in 08), was at a very advanced level for a HS pitcher to start, scouts were wowed by his stuff, command and control. The K’s dont concern me much at all. Im 100% confident they are going up in 2010, even though he’ll be starting at AA. Velocity of 89-93 just isnt that big a concern, especially when he’s very projectable.
Once again, for low minors guys Scouting >> Stats.
That's all well and good...
He’s supposed to be polished and all, but his defenders still relly on his projectability. I just think it takes a pretty big leap of faith to put him as high as he is. I’ll take Matt Moore who’s already striking out a ton of guys and just needs to harness it. He’s already had stretches where he decreased the BBs.
Nice job
I think Kelly’s lack of top-end velocity would be less of an issue if he posted a higher strikeout rate. He’s certainly very polished and has good secondary offerings (and he has good fastball command/movement), but it’s hard to project him as an ace pitcher if he doesn’t have much velocity or a high strikeout rate. If you agree that he doesn’t have ace upside, then it is hard for me to rank him as a top 20-25 prospect, especially since he has only pitched in A ball.
http://www.theyankeeu.com
I just can't understand Callis
putting Kelly above Perez. Also, Kelly has “proven himself at one level higher”? What? They both have dominated high A (IMO Perez dominated it more) and Perez has pitched at AA. And isn’t Perez a year younger?
I am also on the Westmoreland bandwagon but I don’t think he is an A- just yet. He’s only player, what half a season at low A? I’ll give him a B+ for now.
Otherwise great read. You did your homework.
"dominated high A"
They dominated the Sally, which is A ball, but not high A, I think. FSL, Cal and Carolina are high A. I think callis had them close to each other, so not that big a deal. Scoutingthesally was pretty impressed with Kelly. Not sure if he saw Perez.
Interesting point. I had tossed around Kelly’s “low” velo myself. Again, that came from scoutingthesally, but his MPHs are 2-3 mph below what others use. Not sure if it is a slower gun or what, but he loves Kelly and thinks he will add speed. 90 mph from him is like 93 somewhere else. I understand the concern with Ks and speed, and I myself wonder if he is over-hyped, but if Kelly has number 2 ceiling he almost has a number 3 floor apparently. He’s that good. Like Perez, too, so it’s a tough rank.
Anyway, nice write-ups, alskor.
iirc
Mike Newman over at Scouting The Sally has said that basically virtually every pitcher he saw all year in the SAL had their velocity over-stated by the big guys by a couple MPH. This is not unprecedented, nor is it exactly unusual . . .guys with 90 MPH fastballs do not sell magazines or online subscriptions.
When Callis says “Kelly pitches at 89-93” that typically means something more along the lines of “Kelly sits 88-90, and can touch 92-93”.
Kelly is a really good arm, but it’s like people are trying to invent things that aren’t there to justify the hype around him. There’s no need – he stands perfectly well on his own merits.
Like I said above
I was pretty surprised at the quote, and that’s why I threw it in there. As Ive been saying over at the CPL, Perez is nearly top 10 for me and I havent got anywhere near Kelly yet (Early to mid 20’s maybe?)
That's fine then.
My roommate is actually Ryan from Arlington, and we were both peppering him with these questions.
I’d put Rizzo at least equal to Lars at this point, I just don’t think he should be given the benefit of doubt anymore. I really like Lavarnway as well, talked to a scout just before the 2008 draft and he said he reminded him of Youk with more power but a little less plate discipline. Even if he can’t stick at C, I think he could be a very good 1B/3B.
I also am not buying all the love for Iglesias. Look at the argument going on over Escobar, Iglesias has even less chance to hit in my opinion. Are the Red Sox going to start an all glove SS and leave a hole in their lineup? Sure they could trade him to a team that can afford to do that but I just question whether he will even be an every day player based on his current profile. I’d take Gibson, who is likely to switch to 2B, over Iglesias because I’m fairly confident he will be productive from 2B and still provide very good D up the middle. I understand Iglesias’ glove is special and SS is more valuable but I just don’t have any confidence in the bat.
Lin is a guy I’ve been watching for some time now just waiting for him to blow up. I sure hope he does something this year or I may put him in the Lars camp.
I think Fife/Volz are a bit underrated, I’d have them ahead of some of the honorable mentions you put a brief comment for. I also think people should tame their enthusiasm for Kelly for one more season.
what's the difference between Casey Kelly and Jordan Lyles?
Kelly’s father played in the big leagues as a utility infielder. Oh, and Lyle is a year younger and dominated the same league (without Kelly’s promotion) with much less hype.
HUGE difference in secondary pitches
Huge.
In terms of fastball, projection, build and performance theyre pretty similar. I like Lyles. I cant imagine anyone taking him over Kelly, though.
Also Kelly actually has better velocity than Lyles presently
Just one more indication of how absurd the whole Kelly velocity argument is. With most prospects people dont mind seeing the projection. With Kelly detractors its all about what’s he’s NOT, rather than what he is.
Lyles:
His fastball sits at an average velocity of 89-91 mph right now, and projects for plus, and he also has some feel for a curve and a changeup.
Lyles is raw, and like most inexperienced teenagers, his secondary pitches lag behind the fastball. He survived in the Appy League on location and movement, but he’ll need to throw his curve more often when he begins facing better hitters.http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8331
Kelly:
Considering how he’s yet to completely commit to pitching, Kelly is a remarkably advanced arm. He fills the strike zone with three pitches, beginning with a fastball that sits at 89-93 with excellent sink and run. His curveball is a clear plus offering, and his changeup shows the potential to be one as well. One of the most athletic pitchers in the minors, his delivery is smooth, repeatable, and effortless.http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9762
Now, Lyles’ curve improved this year, but its not plus, and his curve and change are miles behind Kelly’s. I do expect Lyles to eventually sit around the same velocity as Kelly.
I read reports
that had Lyles with consistently more velocity than that. In fact, I find it hard to believe (meaning the scouting reports are outdated, frankly) Lyles struck out 10.39 per 9 innings with 89-91 mph fastball with little or no secondary pitches. Obviously we’re talking about inexperienced low-a hitters, but I believe scouting reports on 18-year-old pitchers change often. Everyone considered Lyles an overdraft, which I agree with, but I think people take that high school (and/or first month of the season scouting report) as set in stone forever and ever.
by richieabernathy on Jan 5, 2010 3:34 PM EST up reply actions
alskor
great fanpost though. real quality work.
by richieabernathy on Jan 5, 2010 3:50 PM EST up reply actions
Im sure his velocity increased this year and his curve improved. Just couldnt find any good quotes on that. Still nowhere near Kelly's curve.
Guys dominate A ball all the time with nothing but a decent fastball and plus command. That wouldnt be surprising to me at all – but Lyles is better than that. I do think Lyles is a very good prospect. I guarantee Kelly is rated higher pretty much everywhere though, and I think there’s very good reason for it.
which bumgarner?
the 88 mph pitcher or the 94 Mph one?
Projection only matters
when talking about red sox prospects. I mean, its easier to project Kelly sitting at 93 then to assume Bumgarner will once again sit at 94 right?
I'll bet you anything
Bumgarner has a better MLB career then Kely.
One more time...
I dont think Bumgarner will be a bust or that “he is teh suck” or anything. I think he’s one of the better pitching prospects in baseball. At the beginning of the discussion I listed the things I like about Bumgarner. My entire point was he has too much risk and his scouting reports werent good enough at present to recommend him as a top 12 prospect. That’s it.
If he was still on the CPL and hadnt been voted in I would be very close to voting for him. Is thinking he is a top 25 guy instead of a top 15 guy really such a cardinal sin in your mind that you have to continue with this crusade in multiple threads?
Repeat for effect: I dont think Bumgarner sucks.
Would I take him over Kelly? Maybe. I have to think about it some more. I havent ranked those guys yet. I think theyre probably pretty similar. Bumgarner has an excellent fastball and pitchability, but his secondary stuff isnt very good right now and ultimately the ceiling on his secondary pitches is up for debate right now. I also wonder how the fastball plays in the majors long term if the velocity stays where it is. These are serious concerns to me that I dont think should be overlooked. He’s sort of similar to Lyles below (I like him too!)- fastball, command, control and pitchability have gotten him where he is – and theyre all very good attributes.
The reason I was so adamant was that Bumgarner vs. Perez is a striking disparity. I just really feel Perez right now is what Bumgarner would be if he got his velocity back up and improved his secondary stuff significantly. Given that, I just cant understand Bumgarner over him. If the discussion was Bumgarner vs. Ackley I wouldnt feel so strongly about it at all – but we’re talking two LHPs here, one with better velocity, stuff, numbers and younger. I just dont get how so many can so easily overlook all that. You dig?
Repeat again for effect: I dont think Bumgarner sucks. Please stop your crusade.
well done
good stuff. I prefer your grading system too. . . I’m much more interested in trying to determine who could be the next stud, rather than if a guy is a sure fire back of the rotation starter. It forces you to form an opinion on a guy earlier on. Inoa for example, I’d rather go out on a limb with him and possibly fall on my ass instead of grouping him with a bunch of guys that are pretty much minor league filler ( c prospects). . .
I still think I’m the only Sox fan that is impressed by Ryne Miller, nobody seems to give him much love, but he seems like the type of guy that would be moved in a deal and end up a pretty good closer. .. .
I think Almanzar belongs in the top 15
an 18 year old with his tools belongs on the list, I think. Hopefully the Sox will get smart with his development, though, he didn’t belong in Greenville last year
I actually strongly, strongly considered Almanzar for #15.
I really do think he’s a phenomenal talent. I agree all his struggled can be pretty much pinned on him being rushed. He was rushed all along, but he kept doing so well they kept it up. That switch to full season was a huge mistake, but who knew? Once they put him in full season they had to leave him there to take his lumps until the short season leagues started up after the draft. So he looked terrible and got frustrated. I expect a strong bounceback.
I dont blame them for being aggressive, mind you. There was plenty of reason to think he could handle it. Im just looking back and saying it was a mistake now.
Thanks to everyone who posted. I appreciate all the nice comments.
I will be sure to think about your criticisms and not just ignore them. Even the ones I dont agree with…
Casey Kelly Velocity
Just to put it out there, here are his velocities during the future’s game (keep in mind that this was a 1 inning appearance and probably a tick or two above what he sits at as a starter):
to Viciedo:
4-Seam Fastball: 93
to Carlos Santana:
4-Seam Fastball: 94
4-Seam Fastball: 93
4-Seam Fastball: 94
4-Seam Fastball: 93
to Weglarz:
4-Seam Fastball: 93
Curveball: 82
Curveball: 83
4-Seam Fastball: 93
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2009_07_12_wftmin_uftmin_1
I’m really not sure what people don’t like about Kelly.
Futures game
I tend to not count velocity from future games for a few reasons:
1. Guys tend to overthrow to impress scouts, management
2. As you said, it is often for 1 inning so the velocity is bound to be up 2 MPH or so. That said if Kelly sits at 90-91 MPH that should be fine with his secondary stuff
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Jan 5, 2010 11:13 PM EST up reply actions
Excellent
I always appreciate the hard work you put into your pieces, alskor
The 2008 Rogelio Moret League Fantasy Baseball Champions!
by The Congo Hammer on Jan 5, 2010 7:58 PM EST reply actions
Awesome work Alskor
I loved reading this fanpost. While I don’t always agree with you, I like that you contribute to the community and don’t just complain about everyone else’s material. Well done.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Jan 5, 2010 11:14 PM EST reply actions
Junichi Tazawa
anybody got any 2010 predictions for this guy?
I think he pitches very well in AAA
but with a rotation of Lester-Beckett-Lackey-Dice K-Buchholz-(Wakefield), he’s not gonna get much of a chance barring some problems. I could see some spot starts – but Bowden is equally likely to get the call. The Sox have never hesitated to call up guys from AA to the majors either. They basically use AAA Pawtucket as a place to stash useful vets. So there is always the chance Casey Kelly could get the call. Papelbon, Lester, Gabbard, Hansack, Bownde all made a surprise call ups from AA before they ever pitched in AAA. There are others too, Im sure, if I think about it.
I do see Tazawa pitching better now that he has a year of American baseball under his belt. I see him forcing his way into the MLB bullpen down the stretch with very good AAA performances.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Minor League Ball
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
