Milwaukee Brewers Top 20 Prospects for 2010
by John Sickels on Jan 4, 2010 7:35 PM EST
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PrintTop 20 Milwaukee Brewers Prospects for 2010
All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don't get too worried about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get beyond the Top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you want to emphasize. Complete reports on these and over 1,000 other players will be in the 2010 Baseball Prospect Book, now available for pre-order, shipping on February 2nd!
1) Brett Lawrie, 2B, Grade B+: I believe in the bat enough to give him a B+ despite the uncertainty regarding his position. He's got a terrific swing, excellent bat speed, and controls the zone fairly well.
2) Alcides Escobar, SS, Grade B+: He's ready now. Terrific glove, will steal bases, but has no power and might not hit much higher than .260 with a .320 OBP currently. Will have a very long career as a defensive specialist and could win Gold Gloves.
3) Eric Arnett, RHP, Grade B: Needs to sharpen his control, but power sinker is impressive, combines grounders and strikeouts, which I like. I think he'll take a big step forward in 2010.
4) Jonathan Lucroy, C, Grade B: Power dropped off in Double-A, but 78/66 BB/K ratio is a huge positive and I think the homers will come back. Glove is coming along.
5) Mat Gamel, 3B, Grade B-: His stock has slipped some, but it is fashionable to bash him right now and I think people are getting too negative. Still just 24, power upside remains highly impressive. Don't know where he fits on defense.
6) Kentrail Davis, OF, Grade B-. Need to see some pro numbers before ranking higher, but upside is very high. I hope they send him to the Midwest League; I'd like to take an early look in April.
7) Jake Odorizzi, RHP, Grade B-: Personal favorite from the '08 draft, I hope he goes to Wisconsin to start the year for the same reason as with Davis. Upside is very high and they've handled him cautiously thus far.
8) Wily Peralta, RHP, Grade B-: I did get to see this guy in the Midwest League; he's got a great arm and pitched well. Uncertainty about role lingers, but the upside is high.
9) Cody Scarpetta, RHP, Grade B-: Has some command issues, but another guy with a good stuff and a good ceiling.
10) Kyle Heckathorn, RHP, Grade B-: Excellent fastball/slider combination, throws strikes but they aren't always quality strikes, needs to improve changeup if he remains a starter.
11) Zach Braddock, LHP, Grade C+: Made a huge step forward with his control this year, kills lefties, but durability issues remain and preclude a higher grade right now.
12) Josh Butler, RHP, Grade C+: Pitched at five levels which makes his numbers easy to miss, but he's got impressive stuff and could help as both a starter and reliever. Combined numbers: 9-3, 2.97, 96/43 K/BB in 118 innings, 111 hits, 1.91 GO/AO.
13) Lorenzo Cain, OF, Grade C+ Very toolsy outfielder, gets an injury mulligan but even with that his bat is still a boom-or-bust investment. Needs 400 at-bats in Triple-A.
14) Angel Salome, C, Grade C+: Like Gamel, it is stylish to downgrade Salome right now, but given his past track record I wouldn't bet against a huge rebound season.
15) Amaury Rivas, RHP, Grade C+: Looks like a prospect as an inning-eater type.
16) Eric Farris, 2B, Grade C+: I wish he drew more walks, but excellent speed, contact hitting ability, and good glove at second base make him interesting.
17) Caleb Gindl, OF, Grade C+: Scouts don't like the tools, but they can't ignore his bat after a fine season in the Florida State League at age 20.
18) Evan Anundsen, RHP, Grade C+: Another strike-throwing inning eater, overlooked due to other arms in the system.
19) Mark Rogers, RHP, Grade C+: Rose from the dead with 1.67 ERA and 67 strikeouts in 65 innings in the Florida State League. Was on a strict pitch count after missing two entire seasons with injuries. Still has very good stuff, needs to sharpen control, still worry about durability. Better stuff than Anundsen.
20) Logan Schafer, OF, Grade C+: Has the skills and tools to be an excellent fourth outfielder.
21) Scooter Gennett, SS, Grade C+: Speculative grade based on impressive scouting reports and video on a high school bat. Might drop to C.
OTHERS (Grade C): John Axford, RHP; Nick Bucci, RHP, Cutter Dykstra, 2B-OF; Mike Fiers, RHP; Taylor Green, 3B; Brooks Hall, RHP; Del Howell, LHP; Jeremy "Cheech" Jeffress, RHP; Maverick Lasker, Private Investigator, RHP; Seth Lintz, RHP; Chuck Lofgren, LHP; Dan Merklinger, LHP; Jose Alberto Pena, OF; Josh Prince, SS; D'Vontrey Richardson, OF; Max Walla, OF; Rob Wooten, RHP.
I like this system; there is a lot of depth here.
I really believe in Brett Lawrie's bat. I'd just make him an outfielder and let him concentrate on hitting, but if he can improve his second base defense the Jeff Kent comparisons are dead-on. The guy seems to thrive on big stages.
I originally rated Escobar as a strong Grade B. After sleeping on it, I decided that the pro-Escobar case was a good one and boosted him to Grade B+. He should have a 15-year career, but I have enough concerns about what his hitting to keep him rated below Lawrie overall.
Gamel's reputation goes up and down and is down right now with a lot of people, but he's still too young for me to diss him completely. I think Lucroy's power will come back. Kentrail Davis could rival Lawrie at number one among the hitters once we get some pro data.
I'm impressed with the pitching depth. I buy into Arnett enough to rank him tops right now, but the lower and middle levels of the farm system are filled with interesting arms: Odorizzi, Peralta, and Scarpetta are all personal favorites, and there are others with significant potential as well. There are inning-eater types, there are very live arms, there are relief prospects, there are just a lot of options here. Josh Butler is overlooked and could be a nice surprise investment for people in '10.
Overall, I think Brewers fans should be pleased with the way things are developing on the farm.
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+1
He is major league ready, a potential gold glover, he’ll be 23 all of 2010, and he posted a .351wOBA in AAA. He’s got to be at least a B+.
by BrosbeforeShaincoes on Jan 4, 2010 7:46 PM EST up reply actions
wOBA for prospects
wOBA is an excellent tool for evaluating major league performance. Im not sure where people got this idea that it has strong predictive value for minor leaguers. Considering all it encompasses it is very easy for wOBA to be misleading, especially when one part of a guy’s game may have been particularly lucky. We would be better off looking at the components involved than using wOBA as shorthand for offensive production. Its much better at evaluating the past than predicting the future.
Is a possibly comp for Escobar
Omar Vizquel? Great glove, average hitter, expected to have a long career…?
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Jan 4, 2010 8:08 PM EST up reply actions
I'm personally thinking Royce clayton
"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
+1
People don’t realize that Vizquel may be the second best defensive shortstop of all time.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Jan 4, 2010 9:38 PM EST up reply actions
Omar already is the 2nd best
Ozzie Smith was better then Vizquel.
Agreed
That is who I was referring to being better than Vizquel.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Jan 5, 2010 6:19 PM EST up reply actions
What grade does a Future HOF get ....
Not Escobar but Vizquel?
I am guessing not a B
Escobar
I like the B grade for Escobar.
I think he’s been overrated so far as a minor leaguer.
I also agree that Lawrie has a much higher ceiling and is the best current Brewers prospect.
Think Brooks Hall should be someone to watch.
"In 1962 I was named Minor League Player of the Year. It was my second season in the Bigs." - Mr. Baseball, Bob Uecker
Could you elaborate?
How do you think he has been overrated?
by BrosbeforeShaincoes on Jan 4, 2010 8:39 PM EST up reply actions
No power, not likely to hit for great average
He has a great glove but people tend to overrate his bat.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Jan 4, 2010 9:38 PM EST up reply actions
If his glove is as good as reported
He doesn’t need to be anything more than serviceable with the bat.
Agreed
But that doesn’t make him a B+ prospect.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Jan 4, 2010 9:53 PM EST up reply actions
Cool
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Jan 4, 2010 9:59 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I don't think it's overrated
He is a good athlete, has a room to put on some strength, and he played all of last year at 22 putting up good numbers! I see no statistical, nor have I read any scouting concerns, that suggest that he will not be an above-average offensive short stop. How valuable would guys like Adam Everett or Jack Wilson be if they projected to have Escobar’s bat?
by BrosbeforeShaincoes on Jan 4, 2010 10:49 PM EST up reply actions
That is the problem
Adam Everett and Jack Wilson may actually have Esocbar’s bat.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Jan 4, 2010 10:51 PM EST up reply actions
I'm saying
There is no reason to think he will have that type of bat. What is giving you the impression he will hit like that?
by BrosbeforeShaincoes on Jan 4, 2010 10:55 PM EST up reply actions
A few reasons:
1. He doesn’t know how to take a walk
2. He has no power as evidenced by his career .377 slugging percentage
If you look at Jack Wilson’s minor league numbers he showed better batting average, slugging, and similar plate discipline.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Jan 4, 2010 11:02 PM EST up reply actions
Disagree
1. He’s never gonna put up high OBPs, but at 22 he walked in 6.9 percent of his plate appearances. That’s below-average, but I don’t think it qualifies “doesn’t know how to take a walk”
2. Quoting career numbers obscures the progress Escobar has made in recent years. He slugged 434 last year and 409 this year.
3. Escobar can steal bases. He stole 34 and 42 the last two years. The most Wilson ever stole in high minors was 5!
by BrosbeforeShaincoes on Jan 4, 2010 11:22 PM EST up reply actions
Jack Wilson OPSed over .900 in AAA
Your comparison doesn’t really show anything. Neither does “career” slugging for a young, skinny Venezuelan kid still filling out and developing as a hitter. As a potential plus plus defender, knocking him as not hitting enough XBHs is asking a lot.
The Win Value of Adam Everrett and Jack Wilson
Even with their bats, these two were 2.0 to 2.5 WAR players in their prime, normal seasons. For context, last year Carlos Pena put up a 356/537 split and was a 2.6 WAR player at 1B. (Jack Wilson was a 4.3 WAR player in 2004, the year he hit 335/459 to go w/ his glove; even putting up a 292/363 line last year, Wilson was a 1.9 WAR player).
If Escobar puts up 330/390 years with gold glove defense and speed, he’s a slam-dunk all-star in terms of value (even if he doesn’t get voted to the team).
addendum
There’s a reason why the new Jesus of GMs traded Jeff Clement and a bucket of C prospects to the Pirates . . .
1B are overated prospects in general as well when we look at relative value across positions
what is the point. While I’d take Escobar over Lawrie, and while I would probably give him a B+, the noteriety he has been getting as a top 15-20 prospect is suspect to me at best. I don’t see him adding much with the bat. A .750 OPS in his best season would be a blessing, and because defense deteriorates so quickly (particularly at SS) I’d rather have a “sure-bet” offensively than a “sure-bet” defensively.
Also, its obviously a small sample size, but he didn’t perform so well according to UZR last year, and while we will probably need a year or two of data, by the time we garner if he really is a good defender or not, he will be 25 and probably have 5 years of great defense left before he starts to fall off a cliff (not many players maintain the range necessary to be serviceable at SS after 30, if you think he will be one of those players, then thats your perogative).
So, because there is little projectability on offense and a tendency for defense-first SS to see early declines, I understand the straight B grade he was given.
hmm...
I think Escobar will be a good defender, but I don’t think you can just assume he will be otherworldly like Everett.
Exactly
Best case scenario he’s a +10 defender at SS. That is year-in and year-out a top 3 defensive SS. I can’t see his bat being anything better than -10, so year in and year out he’s between 2.5-3 wins. That’s pretty good, but I don’t think his ceiling is much higher with a much lower floor.
Why is he unlikely to hit for a great average?
I don’t foresee any appreciable secondary skills, at least immediately, but I don’t see why he can’t hit an empty .300.
It was a great selection of awesome.
I think B is right too
obviously a ++ defender, but his bat doesn’t convince me. Career 709 OPS across the minors, has been trending upwards but his best season came in AA Huntsville (hitters’ park in a hitters’ league.) Without that, his hitting in the minors has been marginal. I think he’ll have a career, but to me, he looks like a taller Andres Blanco (who also will have a career.)
I like Odorizzi a lot as well; not as high on Arnett. What happened to Taylor Green’s power last year?
by PrincetonCubs on Jan 4, 2010 9:20 PM EST up reply actions
I see no reason as to why B
is too ‘low’ for Alcides Escobar, sure he’s a strong B
as in closer to B+ than B- ….. but Supurb defense with speed isn’t going to make him elite..
I'd rather have Nick Punto playing 3B and Felipe Lopez playing 2B
than Punto playing 2B and Kouzy, Crede, DeRosa or Glaus playing 3B.
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jan 4, 2010 9:50 PM EST up reply actions
Andrus got an A- last year
And he was a 3 WAR player. I see no reason why Alcides can’t match that kind of production and that absolutely warrants more than a B. I think he’s a strong B+ and much closer to an A- than a B.
Its a great point
but I was pretty strongly against giving Andrus an A-, to be fair.
Limitations on his bat ceiling also scared me.
I don't think his bat is significantly better than Alcides's
Certainly not enough to warrant a 2 grade gap between the two.
I'm sort of amazed
That superb defense is treated with similar flippancy as “he’s got a great attitude” or something, as if playing astounding defense at a premium position everyday wasn’t contributing to a team’s victory total, as if it were any less real than being a superb hitter.
?
Do you think Ozzie Smith, without any hindsight, would be given the appropriate grade if he were a prospect right now?
No
Ozzie Smith didn’t become OZZIE SMITH, HOFer until he learn to hit a bit in his late 20s/early 30s, which would be a silly thing to project for vast majority of terrible hitters. Many HOFers would have been improperly valued as prospects, as a large portion of them had careers that didn’t follow standard age curves whatsoever.
Also because he was a 4th rounder who basically went straight to the majors, so there would be very little to base his prospect status on. It would have been pretty outrageous to project a prospect like that to became the hands-down greatest defensive player of all time.
I've never seen John give a B based on character
Giving a full B to a guy who might not hit at all seems to be quite respectful of defense.
Luis Hernandez can pick it at SS, but there’s more to it than that.
+1
Saw him in AA and AAA (albeit not at all last year) and wasn’t that impressed. Glove and arm are great. Bat doesn’t exist – speed is no good if you can’t get on base. But what concerned me most was his attitude. He wasn’t friendly towards fans – wouldn’t sign autographs (for the handful of people that show up for Southern Lg games) and didn’t seem to take practice too seriously. He can maybe dog it during fielding practice, but he needs to work hard during batting practice. I always watch guys in practice and around fans – this tends to sort out those who have the right attitude and the will to succeed in baseball.
I think B is a very acceptable grade for Escobar. He’ll have a good career as a fielding specialist/utility guy, but unless his bat comes around he won’t see too much playing time unless its on bad teams.
love the lawrie grade john
think your right on
A-
For Escobar for me; now that we’re getting able to quantify defensive contributions, it’s clear that a plus-plus defender at short or center is worth much more than conventional wisdom dictates. Chris Dial just put together a Google doc of value putting offense and defense together for AL players: http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tMN8Z0aGi-29o8XVM7dKXSA&output=html
In his rookie year, Elvis Andrus was the 26th most valuable player in the AL according to Dial’s spreadsheet, ahead of guys like Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, Dustin Pedroia, Grady Sizemore, Curtis Granderson and Carlos Pena.
Would anyone be surprised to see Escobar match or surpass that ranking? Andrus, in a hitter’s ballpark, but up a 267/329/373 offensive line, and still had great value (according to Fangraphs, he was a 3.0 win above replacement player last year). Even if Escobar did top out at .320 obp, he’s still a top 10 shortstop if his defense is equal to Andrus’ (and I don’t know of anyone who doesn’t think it’s equal if not better).
Or, to put it another way, if you were playing in a simulation league, would you trade Escobar straight up for his fellow grade B graders Lucroy or Arnett?
There are such things as defensive superstars, and Escobar looks to be one of them. That he also has the possibility of being an average (for his position) offensive player, well that pushes him into the A or A- range for me.
Would anyone be surprised to see Escobar match or surpass that ranking?
Yes, considering that Andrus (according to that OPD doc) only achieved that ranking by: 1) being an above average hitting SS (though not by a lot), and 2) being the 4th most valuable defender in the entire league.
Is that within his range of outcomes? Sure. But I find it unlikely that he accomplishes both those things.
Ceiling
If Scooter’s bat and defense hold up, he has one of the 5 highest offensive ceilings in the system.
1. Lawrie – Hornsby!
2. Gamel – He was a BaseballAmerica Hot Prospect regular before being promoted
3. Kentrail – Eric Davis’ skillset in Puckett’s body
4. Brent Brewer – Ceiling, people. He could be Hanley.
5. Gennett – The kid could be an Utley clone, or at least an Uggla-type
Chicks Dig The Long Ball.
6. D' Vontrey
As evidenced by my inclusion of Brewer, I respect the ceiling of the dual athlete in baseball.
Chicks Dig The Long Ball.
I'm sorry
but if you’re going to say Brewer could be Hanley, I’d say watch the National Championship on Thursday, pick any D-Back and they, too, could be Hanley
Hornsby-Hanley
And you take offense to my Hanley comp?
But seriously, I was just saying ceiling. It takes but one season to turn around a minor league career path.
Chicks Dig The Long Ball.
and I think
Pedroia is a better utopic comparison for Gennett. He’s one of those “gritty, ballplayer, gamer” types
escobar
You guys might be right about Escobar. I will sleep on it and decide on an upgrade tomorrow.
I agree that he won't be a great offensive contributor THIS year
but he’s improved his walk rate each year, and i think his high BABIPs are sustainable due to his speed. I think a .285/.335/.370 line isn’t out of the question (I like the Andrus comp above, as far as next yr versus andrus last year).
Hey John,
Should Escobar even be included ? 133 plate appearances takes away his rookie status, doesn’t it?
by Southside Steve on Jan 6, 2010 11:33 PM EST up reply actions
Is rookie status determined by
at bats or plate appearances?
by Southside Steve on Jan 7, 2010 12:32 AM EST up reply actions
Gamel
John, I think you’re right about not getting down on Gamel. We can’t forget how badly the Brewers jerked him around when called up last year, and he still put up roughly league average production for a 3B at age 23. He had a very good line when he started (i.e. when not pinch-hitting, which has been shown to hurt production).
His defense is obviously still a question, but he made some great plays which tell me he needs to get out of his own way and let his athleticism take over. Obviously, that is easier said than done; ask Chuch Knoblauch.
Kentrail Davis will be #1 on this list next tear...
Just my guy feeling, dude is going to be something special.
I'm surprised you have Anundsen so high
Saying Rogers has better stuff than him is a massive understatement, and Rivas’ stuff is also much better. If Anundsen gets his high school velocity back or continues to succeed at AA, I’ll buy it, but righties that throw 85 and haven’t proven themselves above the FSL aren’t prospects.
Big picture, I think Heckathorn and Farris are too high and Rivas and Schafer are too low. Axford is a better prospect than Heckathorn.
It was a great selection of awesome.
I agree about Rivas and Schafer being underrated, as well as Farris overrated. But, I hope you’re wrong about Heckathorn vs. Axford, that would be an awful waste of a high pick, although Heckathorn does sound like a classic Doug Melvin power arm with poor command
to elaborate
I think Rivas is really underrated. As Battlekow noted, he does have good stuff (best changeup and best command in system according to BA), and he’s really starting to put it together, although he is old for his level.
Additionally, I really feel Gindl is underrated. He’s matched Gamel’s production almost exactly at each level, and put up great numbers in a pitchers league while reducing his K-rate this season. I understand he’s small, but at some point production trumps projection. Maybe I’m too optimistic though; it wouldn’t be the first time scouts found something behind solid production
Gindl v. Gamel
You can’t really compare the two because Gamel’s big breakout didn’t come until he got to AA. Also, Gamel’s tools (and also size) have always foretold of him putting up incredible numbers. Gindl continues to defy the doubters of his lollipop guild wagging, but I think Schafer is a better prospect at present.
Chicks Dig The Long Ball.
I don't think it's that much of an indictment of Heckathorn
And actually, it sounds like he’s got pretty solid command; it’s just that he’s surprisingly hittable for his velocity owing to a lack of deception, and he seems destined for the bullpen. In my mind, he and Axford are both relievers without closer upside, so I’d prefer the one that’s succeeded in the high minors, though Axford’s control is worse than Heckathorn’s. A fairly certain setup guy isn’t necessarily a waste of a supplemental pick, and it’s certainly not worthless; combine that with Heckathorn’s build and the possibility that his delivery can be revamped to take better advantage of his velocity, which would allow him to be a workhorse starter, and you have an okay pick—I just think he’s closer to the 20th-best Brewers prospect than the 10th.
It was a great selection of awesome.
ok
I read you a little better now. Not to nitpick, but I thought heckathorn had good control, but weak command which led, at least partially, to his “hittability”. Am I wrong on this? I know you know more than I do about these guys.
No, you're probably right
Good control is what I was trying to say—Heckathorn doesn’t walk guys like Axford does. As for the poor command leading to hittability, I don’t know; I’d mostly heard it attributed to him showing the ball for an abnormally long amount of time before releasing it.
It was a great selection of awesome.
"Cheech"
And Jeremy “Cheech” Jeffress – HA HA! Seriously though the guy has amazing stuff. I hope he can work things out. He’s a really good guy, too. Talked to him for a while before some SAL games before he got in trouble the first time. Just a nice guy, can’t help but want him to get things headed in the right direction.
The Beer Pitchers
ANY of these pitchers could be considered the top pitching prospect in this system, depending upon your criteria
1. RHP Eric Arnett….Top draftee this year. Pitcher in a “muddied” class of pitching prospects.
2. RHP Jake Odorizzi….most babied (read: valued) arm in system
3. RHP Wily Peralta….Best right arm displayed for most of the year
4. RHP Cody Scarpetta…Most dominating starting pitching prospect
5. RHP Eric Heckathorn….Best mix of ‘10 impact/stuff
6. LHP Zach Braddock….Best numbers.
7. RHP Josh Butler…Best numbers from a RHP
8. RHP Amaury Rivas…Brewers’ Minor League Pitcher of the Year
9. RHP Evan Anundsen…best numbers from a young-ish pitching prospect
10. RHP Mark Rogers….highest drafted
11. RHP Jeremy Jeffress….I’m #1! Most valuable right arm in the minors
Chicks Dig The Long Ball.
Arnett
I think you have to go with Arnett as the top.
The rest of the guys on the list are either very raw, like Odirizzi, or have a lot of work to do, like Heckathorn, or arent simply top guys, like Scarpetta.
As mentioned other times, I think there is depth in the system, but its not very good. Arnett is the only guy in this system with an impact profile as a major leaguer, and the big question for him, imo, is if he can stay injury free, and whether or not he remains as a starter.
Heckathorn v. Braddock
I would say this is my only true squabble with the list. I think Braddock is even more valuable to the Brewers than any other arm because it’s his left arm. He put up better numbers than any other pitcher in the minors (even after his late season blip) and then went and dominated the AFL while continuing to display an aversion for the free pass. B- and C+….can’t really argue between the difference in grades. Only the difference in order. Too many health questions, compounded by his perceived-to-be-inevitable move to the bullpen? I actually compare Heckathorn to Mark Rogers, sans injury risk. Big-bodied flame throwers. At one time, Mark Rogers and Yovani Gallardo were 1-2 in strikeouts in the minors.
Chicks Dig The Long Ball.
'09 Draft Ranking
This has been a point of contention between my cronies but how does everyone rank the top-10 players to come out of this past year’s draft?
1. Kentrail Davis
2. Eric Arnett
3. Brooks Hall
4. Kyle Heckathorn
5. D’Vontrey Richardson
6. Scooter Gennett
7. Del Howell
8. Max Walla
9. Josh Prince
10. Cameron Garfield
I’m a really big fan of Gennett and Brooks Hall, both of whom signed very late (along with Howell, and to a lesser degree Richardson). I continue to say this, very good draft from the top down. A lot of very interesting arms and some warted bats.
Chicks Dig The Long Ball.
escobar
after sleeping on the escobar grade, I decided the pro-Escobarians are right and moved him up to a B+. However I still rank him behind Lawrie overall.
Escobarians unite!
Today the grades, tomorrow the world!
+1
Bad choice. How different is he from Jose Iglesias? A slightly better hitter, sure, and slightly lesser defender. I really dont think much of either’s bat. Three letter grades!? Dont see it.
How can Iglesias be a C+ and Escobar a B+? Doesnt make sense. Lots of reason to believe Iglesias will be the better defender. Is Escobar three grades the better hitter? Again, I dont think Iglesias will hit much, but he wont need to the way Escobar hits.
I understand you discount b/c of the unknown quantity issue with Iglesias, but still… Escobar fits in your overall ranking scheme much better as a straight B if you ask me.
We really don't know much about Iglesias at all
Lots of reason to believe Iglesias will be the better defender.
Such as?
How do you figure a lesser defender?
Here is a BP discussion of him. Among other things, Escobar has great range. “Ryan Theriot with a better glove” isn’t exactly inspiring either.
Iglesias’ defensive work can only be described as special, with one scout describing his pre-game workouts in the Arizona Fall League as “the equivalent of a live-action instructional video on everything a shortstop should do.” His range is plus to both sides, his actions are notable for their speed and smoothness, while his arm is both strong and accurate.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9762
Alcides is an excellent defender, but Iglesias seems to be a step beyond that.
nothing in that link puts iglesias above Escobar
It is just typical scout gush. They are both very good. I could put up equally glowing reports for Escobar.
Ok do it
Here’s some more
If you’re a pitcher on the Mesa squad, you’re lobbying to have Florida Marlins third baseman Matt Dominguez and Boston Red Sox shortstop Jose Iglesias man the left side of the infield when you take the hill. Both are the best I’ve seen in the minors defensively at their respective positions this season.
Scouts who have seen Iglesias liken him to Ozzie Smith defensively.
“His hands and arm are deluxe,’’ one American League executive said.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/baseball/mlb/07/03/redsox.iglesias/
Iglesias has [drawn] attention for his flashy glovework at shortstop, with one scout grading his fielding as an 80 on the 20-80 scouting scale.
An international scouting director called Iglesias’ total package, “Ryan Theriot with better hands.”
http://joyofsox.blogspot.com/2009/07/report-sox-sign-cuban-ss-jose-iglesias.html
Some scouts describe his defense as major-league ready right now
http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/tag/jose-iglesias/
Defensively, Iglesias can play shortstop in the big leagues right now
http://baseballbeginnings.com/2009/12/13/jose-iglesias-report/
Iglesias is said to have a plus plus glove and a plus arm, and has drawn comparisons to Ozzie Smith.
http://news.soxprospects.com/2009/07/report-sox-sign-cuban-defector-iglesias.html
The Red Sox will get their first look at Cuban shortstop Jose Iglesias, who they signed for $8.5MM back in July, in the Arizona Fall League. Gammons spoke to an NL GM who said he would have given Iglesias $12MM if his team could afford it, because “Our scouts say he’s the best defensive shortstop they’ve ever seen.”
http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=4448570&name=gammons_peter
This not your typical scout gush. That’s the whole point.
There's a reason they paid this kid $8.5M
He was highly coveted and is a truly elite defender. Escobar is probably pretty close, but then again Im not here arguing Iglesias > Escobar. Im arguing the difference between the two isnt C+ to B+.
Much better
The first two quotes are on point as a comparison to Escobar. Being described as the best defensive SS in the minors or being likened to Ozzie Smith are about as glowing a review as one can receive.
The third sounds great, but it is undercut by your selective quoting, where you excluded the caveats to that praise:
His arm is enough to stick at shortstop, but his range is somewhat limited by his fringe-average speed […] Iglesias is a defensive-oriented overachiever and executives say he would be more of a 2nd-3rd rounder if eligible for the recent draft.
The rest are not on point; being Ryan Theriot or major league ready is not evidence that he is at a higher level that Escobar, who himself is major league ready and projects as a gold glove candidate. The soxprospects report is recycling the same Heyman Ozzie Smith quote. Gammons is being typically absurd about Red Sox prospects (better than Ozzie even, Peter? Really?).
As for gush over Escobar, I point you to pretty much this whole article:
The pitcher called it the best play that’s ever been made behind him. The catcher said it was the best play he had ever seen in a baseball game — period.
But one of the coaches who was in the dugout for Brewers shortstop Alcides Escobar’s defensive gem against the White Sox on Monday called it “ho-hum.”
“That play might crack his top 10. Might,” said Milwaukee first-base coach Ed Sedar, a former roving Minor League coach who has seen plenty of Escobar over the past five years. “He’s made a bunch of plays like that before. They call him ‘Inspector Gadget.’”
Or here:
His defense is a big plus: he is perhaps the best defensive shortstop in the Minors, with plus range, great hands and an outstanding arm.
Or here:
The Brewers’ top prospect, Escobar should immediately become one of the game’s best defensive shortstops in baseball once he establishes himself as a starter in Milwaukee. His hands, range, anticipation, instincts, first-step and arm are all outstanding, and there are few in the game who can match his defensive tools.
And I could quote a whole bunch of other glowing gush that doesn’t specifically call him the “best” or something like that, such as this:
Escobar makes playing shortstop look easy. He gobbles up ground with long strides, getting to balls that other shortstops can’t come close to reaching. He has a true shortstop’s arm, making strong, accurate throws even while on the move. He has soft hands, a good feel for the position and long arms that allow him to scoop up balls that initially appear beyond his grasp.
It looks to me that both are regarded as top flght defenders of the highest rank about whom scouts can’t say enough good things about, and who both project to be perennial gold glove contenders. The only way I see Iglesias coming out ahead is if you take the that unsourced Ozzie Smith comp as overly literal. Personally, given the choice, I’d take Escobar’s D because we have a lot more scouting data on him, and thus I have more confidence in the reports. But I doubt you would go wrong with either.
Given the difference in major league proximity and scout confidence in their respective Hit tools, I can certainly see a full letter grade difference. I can also see why you might disagree, but there is nothing outlandish about the grades being proffered here.
I still strongly disagree
I just dont see a full letter grade difference in their bats. Both their bats concern me greatly.
Can Yunel fans use “Escobarian” too?
"Hey Fat Kid...the monster is right behind you! RUNNNN!!" -The Host
by bwellnjonesco on Jan 5, 2010 12:48 PM EST up reply actions
yes
Kelvim partisans, however, are banned (they’d probably hurt themselves by the second syllable anyway).
settle down guys
Settle down guys. I’m not insulted. If I was easily insulted, I wouldn’t be this open about my thought processes :)
Get up, come on get down with the Sickels…
"Hey Fat Kid...the monster is right behind you! RUNNNN!!" -The Host
by bwellnjonesco on Jan 5, 2010 1:43 PM EST up reply actions
Escobar vs. Brignac
What do people see as the difference in their defense? 0 runs? 5 runs? 10 runs? How much difference in the bats? It seems a lot of people have Esco as a top 15-20 prospect, but Brignac slips out of the top 50. Is Brignac being punished because his bat didn’t live up to the hype after a phenomenal 2006?
Great point
I like Brignac’s glove slightly less. Eyeball it to a pessimistic ~2.5 runs? Think that’s fair? If we’re projecting Escobar as +10 guy, then I think Brignac has to be a ~7.5 type. Certainly no less than a 5. He’s a very good to excellent defensive SS.
Then there is Brignac’s bat – which is already better than Escobar’s by a decent margin and has much more upside, IMHO.
Either Brignac is way underrated or Escobar is overrated. Just not that much difference between them.
Eyeball it to a pessimistic ~2.5 runs?
That is to say – if its not clear from context – about 2.5 runs less than Escobar. Answering your question:
What do people see as the difference in their defense?
Perhaps that is underrating Escobar's bat
He has shown he can make adjustments at the last couple of levels: AA, then AAA, and looked pretty good at the ML level.
His slash line at AAA: 298/351/411. This was with a .343 BABIP, but that actually seems sustainable with his speed and relatively low flyball percentage.
Using, as always, a grain of salt w/ the ballpark neutralizer at minorleaguesplits, Escobar would’ve put up a 310/362/423 line in a neutral ballpark. Using their luck neutralizer with a handful of salt, you get 312/364/426, with a .360 BABIP.
Brignac is pretty underrated, but Escobar isn’t a zero with the bat.
jackso
For example, lots of people (most) think I’m too bullish on Austin Jackson, but i’m not changing my opinion about that one.
Andrus vs Escobar
I just traded Escobar for Andrus in my Pay League, as I’m reading Elvis is the better hitter, and comparable speed and 2 years younger. Wise Move?
I think Andrus is the better player
but even if I thought they were equal, Andrus has shown us plenty at the MLB level. He’s lower risk. Easy choice. Good move.
Changing Grades
I get why he did it. I personally am skeptical when a few loud readers make extreme arguments because they obviously have a bias. I read this blog for John’s views and yes often there are astute posts from readers but more often I get a sense the posts come from wanna be baseball bloggers who are just feeding their own egos. Have any of these guys even seen Escobar play? I read a lot about prospects John and Deric McKamey I think are the best and my expectation is to hear their thinking not gotabata or iluvethebush especially when they repeat themselves for the 20th time. Comparing players to Hornsby and Hanly Ramirez as if this is a common occurance shows an amatuer point of view I can find on any ESPN board. I have opinions but I assume mine are not as enlightened by professionals. That’s just my reaction to changing grades based on little else but loud repititive rambling
?
Apologies for using those loud, “repititive” statistical references and reasoned arguments?
Amateur
I do retain my amateur status, if baseball prospecting ever does become an Olympic event.
I probably do have a higher opinion of Brett Lawrie than most, but the young gent is the epitome of a baseball star with the bat. Realize that a year ago, he was ticketed for catcher school in Arizona. His Dominican Summer League display is the thing of legends. He is the future of Team Canada. The highest drafted position player ever out of Canada. And his sister was crowned US Amateur Softball Player of the Year this past year, as evidence of his superb bloodlines. He is my favorite top prospect in baseball. Hornsby is my favorite infielder of all-time. I definitely project a lot of my hope onto Brett, but he is still just scratching the surface. Remember, he himself was also an amateur 16 months ago.
Chicks Dig The Long Ball.
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