Detroit Tigers Top 20 Prospects for 2010
Top 20 Detroit Tigers Prospects for 2010
All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don't get too worried about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get beyond the Top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you want to emphasize. Complete reports on these and over 1,000 other players will be in the 2010 Baseball Prospect Book, now available for pre-order, shipping on February 2nd!
1) Casey Crosby, LHP, Grade B+: Has some of the best southpaw stuff in the minors and seems fully recovered from Tommy John. Further command refinements in 2010 would move him into the A- and maybe a pure A category.
2) Jacob Turner, RHP, Grade B+: Outstanding high school pitcher, but I want to see some pro numbers before giving him a higher grade. Even a B+ is aggressive in my grading scheme, but I like him a lot. Like Crosby, he has A-/A potential if all goes well.
3) Austin Jackson, OF, Grade B: I like him more than the numbers say I should.
4) Alex Avila, C, Grade B: Won't slug .590 in a full season, but I expect him to have a long and solid career. I was thinking B+ earlier but am backing off that now. . .a B is still a strong grade remember.
5) Dan Schlereth, LHP, Grade B: Excellent relief prospect, needs to sharpen command but was rushed by Arizona.
6) Scott Sizemore, 2B, Grade B: Like Avila, I don't think he's going to be a star, but he should be a solid regular, will be a Rookie of the Year candidate assuming he's healthy in spring training.
7) Ryan Strieby, 1B-OF, Grade B-: Love the power bat, but I don't think he'll repeat the .303 average and .427 OBP. Can he really handle left field?
8) Andy Oliver, LHP, Grade B-: We need to see some professional data aside from the Arizona Fall League, but he seems like the kind of pitcher who could be more effective in the pros than in college. Big upside arm.
9) Casper Wells, OF, Grade C+: Scouts are starting to warm to him. He's produced in Double-A and in the Arizona Fall League, but there will always be skeptics until he hits in the Show. Personally I like the guy.
10) Wilkin Ramirez, OF, Grade C+: Hard to grade...excellent tools are still here, but performance remains spotty with no clear indication that will change.
11) Daniel Fields, SS, Grade C+: Excellent tools with local Detroit ties, but how raw is he and where does he fit with the glove? Need pro data before ranking higher.
12) Cody Satterwhite, RHP, Grade C+: Part of large collection of potential bullpen arms that could be ready soon.
13) Robbie Weinhardt, RHP, Grade C+: Another relief arm who could help quickly.
14) Brayan Villareal, RHP, Grade C+: Sleeper prospect, could rank as high as 10th depending on what you want to emphasize. Need some higher level data but he was great at West Michigan.
15) Alfredo Figaro, RHP, Grade C: Looks more like a reliever to me than a starter. They have a lot of good material for a pen here.
16) Luis Marte, RHP, Grade C: Not as effective in Double-A as some expected, but live arm will get him plenty of chances.
17) Gustavo Nunez, SS, Grade C: hit .315 with 45 steals in the Midwest League, but the scouting reports I have emphasize his rawness.
18) Melvin Mercedes, RHP, Grade C: Another hard-throwing relief arm, but needs to show he can throw strikes.
19) Ramon Lebron, RHP, Grade C: Another high-ceiling arm from rookie ball with command issues.
20) Cale Iorg, SS, Grade C: Frankly I think this is generous. I don't think he'll ever hit enough to be a regular, but the glove and major league bloodlines will get him to the majors.
Others (all Grade C): Brennan Boesch, OF; Audy Ciriaco, SS: Brandon Douglas, 2B; Casey Fien, RHP; Charles Furbush, LHP, Jared Gayhart, RHP; Scott Green, RHP; Brett Jensen, RHP; Jamie Johnson, OF; John Murrian, C; Billy Nowlin, OF; Luke Putkonen, RHP; James Robbins, 1B; Jay Sborz, RHP; Zach Simons, RHP; Adam Wilk, LHP; Austin Wood, LHP.
The Tigers seem to like drafting college pitchers with names that would make Beavis and Butt-head chuckle. This system was looking a bit thin at the top aside from Turner and Casey, but the trade acquisitions of Jackson and Schlereth provide some depth.
On the pitching side, both Crosby and Turner have number one starter potential, and both could be A-/A types a year from now. The pitching thins out after that, but there is a large group of relief arms on the way up, with Schlereth the most advanced but quite a bit behind him. Mercedes and Lebron bear close watching in 2010; both have the potential to take large steps forward.
There are no sure-fire stars on the hitting side, but Jackson, Avila, and Sizemore all look like solid regulars to me. I like Jackson more than the numbers say I should, but sometimes you have to go with your gut. Strieby and Wells also have the potential to play regularly, although I'd like to see some Triple-A data for both. Wilkin Ramirez is the toolsiest of the bunch but also the least refined. Daniel Fields has a huge ceiling but we need some solid performance data about him.
Overall, this system has a lot going for it, but they could use more depth in position players. They love the high ceiling high school arms, and it will be interesting to see if they keep that focus on the '10 draft.
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Sometimes I think...
You need a C++ grade and perhaps a B—. Your almost-a-Bminus-but-I’m-going-with-a-C+ should be higher than just a regular C+.
Avila
I’d take Avila…but I’ve never liked Flowers so I’m biased.
My top 10 AL catcher prospects would be:
1) Hank Conger
2) Carlos Santana
3) Jesus Montero
4) J.P. Arencibia
5) Austin Romine
6) Max Ramirez
7) Petey Paramore
8) Josh Phegley
9) Alex Avila
10) Josh Donaldson
hmm...
can you explain your reasoning for choosing Conger over Santana? That is almost unthinkable to me.
I like Conger a lot, but that's obviously silly.
Just Aslan being Aslan.
You’ll note that he has PETEY PARAMORE over players like Flowers and Avila.
-1
Why is it that when people have an alternate opinion, they get accused of just causing trouble?
Whatever.
I personally don’t see why people are so impressed with Flowers. His plate discipline has went from bad to horrid as he’s been rushed through the CWS system. Avila got rushed but made the best of it. Flowers got rushed and looked silly. Maybe he’ll turn it around…he looked very good at the lower levels, I guess we’ll see.
because when you omit a player
that is obviously in the top 10 of AL catching prospects for players like Petey Paramore and Josh Donaldson and rank Jesus Montero, an A rated prospect 3rd on the list, then people are either going to think you are just trying to cause trouble over the alternative that you just don’t know what you are talking about. Petey Paramore over Tyler Flowers? The 22 year old A baller that had an OPS of .638 over a 23 year old in AAA ball that had an OPS of .803? Come on.
by Looney4baseball on Jan 4, 2010 7:43 AM EST up reply actions
I dont think either of those
I think he doesnt pay much attention and then drops in a few times a year with far outdated material, pontificates on it like an expert and then gets touchy about it when people are skeptical.
when exactly was flowers plate discipline "bad" this season, to go to horrid?
.445 obp in AA with 57 bb to 76 k is by no means bad. his 10 to 32 in AAA isn’t too sexy, but it’s over only 119 plate appearances.
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by trademaker on May 30, 2009 10:31 PM PDT
I don't think you are causing trouble
I just think that your ratings are consistently insane. Take for example:
Igawa > Montero, coming into this year.
Or this amazing Texas list from last year, where you had ZERO players above B-.
Paramore doesn't deserve to be anywhere near this list
And I am speaking as an A’s fan. From the A’s alone I would take Stassi, Donaldson, Ortiz and Leyland above him.
actually...
…if you look at their stats, they are very similar in virtually every category. Both are .290-.300 hitters, both are showing improving plate discipline, and both are showing power.
I give the edge to Conger because he’s 2 years younger. The only thing (besides argueably better defense) Santana has over Conger is that Santana had a power explosion last year at AA. If he can do that again, I guess he’d move ahead of Conger…but I need to see him do that again.
That, and Santana stays healthy while Conger can't
Also, Santana’s been playing mostly in pitcher-friendly parks, while Conger is in the Angels’ notoriously hitter-friendly minor league system. I mean, when was the last time a power hitting Angels prospect actually panned out?
I have no problem with wacky rankings if you give a rationale behind them and the rationale is somewhat sound, but expect to get ripped if the rankings look odd but you don’t give a rationale for them.
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"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
?
I mean, when was the last time a power hitting Angels prospect actually panned out?
Kendry Morales?
Mike Napoli?
The jury is still out on Brandon Wood, and none of Kendrick, Mathis, or Kotchman were “power-hitting” prospects. The only “bust” who fits that description is McPherson, whose main problem was/is the lack of a functional back.
I’m curious as to what you are basing this on.
petey paramore LOL
Whats your reasoning there? I liked him around draft time, but he didnt impress in low A ball as a polished college draftee.
Green
I think Scott Green is good enough to make the list. I guess his numbers haven’t been “stellar”, but he doesn’t walk very many, doesn’t give up home runs, has a decent K rate, and gets a fair number of ground balls. I just think you put his numbers against most of those guys on that list at 5-15, he’s right there or better. And with very few of those pitchers projecting as starters, I like Green’s chances of making your list next year.
He’ll now join Tyler Robertson and Jairo Heredia on my “Come on kid, prove me right” list! A list that has already graduated Jeremy Hellickson…
green
Green is a decent prospect but I worry about his durability.
by John Sickels on Jan 3, 2010 10:00 PM EST up reply actions
Fu-Te Ni
Ni wasn’t graded last year. He put up good #s in the Bigs. Is he for real and what kind of grade would he get? He’s 28 and put up good #s:
31 IP 20 H 11bb 21K
Looks like he faced a majority of lefties; dominated them. Is he just a LOOGY or is he more than that?
well
he started in Taiwan and had fairly even splits (actually it flucated. some years he had more pronounced splits other years he didn’t) and he did flash 3 pitchs this year in the bigs.
on the other hand he’s never consistently throw that hard. on some occasions he’ll flash FBs approaching mid 90s but more often than not he’ll just sit high 80s low 90s. that seems unlikely to improve with a move to the rotation.
I guess he might make it if he’s pitching for the Padres or Marlins, but otherwise it seems unlikely. and Taiwan is a DH league too, so he probably hasn’t hit in ages. emergency starter at best in the AL it seems.
Frankly, I’m pretty happy just to see him being a useful major league RP. proving that at least Taiwan’s league isn’t THAT far away from the majors that it’s good SP can’t be a effective RP.in the majors.
Ryan Perry
What do you expect from Perry this season and in the foreseeable future? I’ve read that Zumaya will get the first shot at the closing gig in 2010 (pending any FA signings), but that Perry and possibly Schlereth could also see an opportunity.
Daniel Schlereth
I was never overly impressed with him in his time in AZ. His career highlight was striking out Manny Ramirez, and making Manny look silly in the process, so he’s got a ceiling, sure. But he never showed the polish we hoped for when we picked him in the first round out of college (which, IMO, justifies why we rushed him, because his draft slot and role necessitated a quick rising for it to be a decent pick), and he could never stay healthy with that ridiculous throwing motion of his.
Basically, I’m trying to say that B is definitely too high. Heck, if we hadn’t made the Jackson trade, this says that Schlereth is our top prospect? I’m certain there’s a reason we put Schlereth in that deal and Jarrod Parker (B-) or Brandon Allen (B-)… TJ surgery be darned, I’ll take Jarrod’s ace ceiling over Schlereth’s closer ceiling. And frankly, I’d say they’re about equally injury-prone, just track the multitude of injuries he has had in the last two years. You can’t close 30 games if you’re on the DL for all of them.
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by Dan Strittmatter on Jan 4, 2010 2:55 PM EST reply actions
wow
great point on the shlereth grade….
john… would schelreth be number 1 on the dbacks list if he wasnt traded?

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