Madison Bumgarner

…but then you broke down the fastball and slider but not the change. The changeup is the big issue for me. He had a power lefty arsenal – the kind that normally makes us think he might end up in the pen if his changeup doesn’t improve, but you never hear that with Bumgarner. Recently the power ain’t even all that powerful. Two pitch guy right now with average to slightly above average velocity for a lefty. Neither looks to me like a real MLB out pitch – and your descriptions seem to agree.

On his mechanics – I havent noticed the hand coming over the top. Its hard to tell but looks like he’s definitely pronating a good bit. He’s also got a slingy arm action. He hides the ball really well – but his mechanics suck because of it. He turns his back to the plate, then brings his arm around (putting lots of stress on the shoulder and elbow as he slings them forward). Then he kind of throws across his body a bit. AND every video Ive seen of him he never friggin tucks his glove hand in, which really irritates me. It just hangs there. Very much a poor finisher. Sloppy mechanics. No huge red flag issues, but lots of bad things. Fixable? I guess… but you’ll probably end up ruining his deception – which IMHO is a big reason for his success.

I just think there are way too many questions with this kid compared to the esteem he’s held in. For instance, why the heck would anyone take him over Casey Crosby? Same kind of weaknesses, but I prefer Crosby’s mechanics and Crosby’s stuff and velocity is a good bit better than Bumgarner’s. Bumgarner is a good prospect. Good pitchability, command and control. Pretty good stuff. Good deception. When you say “overrated prospect” to me, he’s still the 1st guy to come to mind. IF the stuff turns back into power stuff in 2010 and the velocity comes back and the changeup comes along I’ll jump on the bandwagon. Right now, I have some serious concerns, and it puzzles me to see him listed as a top 10 kind of guy. Too many other good prospects with similar ceilings and w/out question marks.

I will agree with you that from the little that we saw of him in the majors he seems kind of tough to figure out. Unlike you I wasn’t that impressed with the slider/curve. I am guessing that he will throw it a little harder once he gets the velo back but he’s kind of down there around 75 sometimes but will get up in the low 80’s with it as well. He does seem to almost cut his fastball and without looking at him a ton I haven’t figured out if he gets a fastball sign or a slider sign for this pitch. But the slider just doesn’t have enough bite or tilt to be an out pitch. I think the arm angle might make it more deceptive but it seems nothing more than average to me. He didn’t really throw enough changeups for me to get a good feel for it but he does have confidence to throw it as an out pitch but it does seem very hittable. This is probably also a result of it being not much slower than what his FB was coming in. He’s simply a guy that I would be not be surprised to have an entirely different view of his repertoire from watching his first 10 innings next season.

i realize this is a really tough one to write, given your approach. really, it’s mostly speculation at this point. and you never want to read too much into how a young pitcher looks at the tail end of the season in their first big league stint.

this may be completely statistically unsupported, but it seems to me that more and more successful young lefties are picking up the extra velocity that lefties tend to lack on radar gun readings through deception/tough-to-read deliveries, allowing them to blow people away with 92 mph stuff that would be average at best if it were coming from a righty with a conventional delivery. not sure what, if anything, to make out of it. it’s easy to speculate why — and why righties don’t seem to do it as much (though might that be the next step) — but i don’t really know. or know if it’s REALLY a trend rather than something i just think i’m noticing.

my top three would be

1) Kris Medlen — great minor league numbers, mixed success in the majors (mostly as a reliever), great K rate, mixed scouting and questions about build……seems like one of the more interesting question marks out there

2) Johnny Cueto — has started both of his first two season very well, then flamed out quickly, but in totally different ways…….despite better “results,” looked much worse in ’09 than ’08, with a plummeting K/9, whereas he looked ultra-talented throughout ’08 (but struggled with pitch counts, often unable to get third strikes, and then with home runs, once he had men on base and had to give in to hitters)…….what was the difference between the two years? something mechanical (due to injuries or not)? change in approach? if the latter, can he refine this approach and mix in a little more of what made in nasty in ’08 (without reverting to that same pitcher)? or are his problems just a combination of Great American Ballpark and pitch counts due to Dusty?

3) Rick Porcello — I’m really, really curious why you’re giving him such a rave review. obviously, he was very young and more than held his own in the majors. but ARL only means so much for pitchers. and the Ks haven’t been there in the minors or majors. i’ll admit i haven’t seen him pitch much (just tuned in during a few random innings on MLB.TV), but my understanding was that he’s mostly a one-trick pony, similar to Cahill, who i know you don’t like. what separates the two in your mind (if the comparison is apt at all)?