Discussion Question: Martin Perez vs. Christian Friedrich
by John Sickels on Jan 28, 2010 11:20 AM EST
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PrintWe are busy getting ready for book shipping day here, so I'm going to go the discussion question route for a few days to keep you guys busy. Next week we'll get back into a normal rhythm.
Today's question is about lefty prospects Martin Perez of Texas and Christian Friedrich of Colorado. I rated them both as Grade A- prospects in the book. Perez is younger and has a better physical upside, but Friedrich is no slouch, is more polished, and put up excellent numbers last year.
Disregarding the effects of pitching in Texas and Colorado, who would you rather have?
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Perez, but it's very, very close.
I don’t think Friedrich gets nearly enough credit for what he did. Improving after a promotion to the CAL… that doesn’t happen.
by RedSoxFaithful on Jan 28, 2010 12:00 PM EST reply actions
Its Perez for me
I worry about how much of Friedrich’s success is due to his great hammer curve. His fastball is kind of average-ish. His change and slider arent good. His mechanics are a little weird. Despite this, Friedrich is a top 50 guy for me. Perez is top 15, though. He’s got a much more complete repertoire.
Perez has better velocity than Friedrich. Perez has two plus secondary pitches. His command and control is very good, and maybe a half step behind Friedrich. I also see more projection in Perez.
Friedrich is a very good prospect, but Perez is an elite one IMO.
Just curious
What’s the worry about Friedrich’s success tied to one pitch? He won’t forget how to throw it, and curveballs don’t get ruined at Coors like they used to. The man with the fifth best Fangraphs’ curveball value in 2009 was a Rockie.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 28, 2010 12:25 PM EST up reply actions
My concern is how his fastball and other pitchers will play against advanced hitters who can lay off the hammer curve.
AA could be a big adjustment level for him.
I think he’s going to still do very well since he commands and control his fastball, but Im not sure the numbers will look quite so elite. If they still do then he jumps to near the front of the pitching prospect class a year from now.
Friedrich's fastball reportedly touches mid-nineties
for a lefty, this is certainly enough to keep hitters guessing and occasionally flailing on the curve. I imagine he has something of a change as well. I hear your argument, but you can make the exact same argument for Perez. Considering all I’ve heard about him, I’m surprised he didn’t dominate A ball hitters more.
by Daniel Berlyn on Jan 28, 2010 9:38 PM EST up reply actions
hammer curve
is very hard to repeat. Many/most pitchers that feature it in the minors get rid of it and go with a normal curve. Just so hard to repeat for strikes. And advanced hitters lay off of it until a pitcher can throw for strikes. Other than 2 strike counts of course.
hah
have you seen hammels numbers at home in coors stadium? one of the worse pitchers in baseball at home… and a cy young candidate on the road… coors messed him up
by matthewmafa on Jan 29, 2010 12:44 AM EST up reply actions
Perez, easily
but that’s no knock on Friedrich at all.
Freude, schoener Goetterfunken,
Tochter aus Elysium,
Wir betreten feuertrunken,
Himmlische dein Heiligtum.
Is there a durability issue on either of them?
I don’t know how big they are and body types, but…
Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.
I think Friedrich has a minor problem injury-wise, I’mnot sure so don’t quote me.
Martin Perez is 6’,178lbs and will be 19 in April
Christian Friedrich is 6’4";215lbs and will be 23 in July
Friedrich has excellent k:bb and bb/9 and k/9 ratios in LowA and HighA last year. What were Perezs’ ratios like in LowA and HighA?
I’m not quite versed in baseball mathematics.
Freidrich had shoulder soreness later in the year
It doesn’t really project of be much of a problem longterm.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 28, 2010 1:45 PM EST up reply actions
last two poll questions have been fairly one sided
Who loves orange soda?
poll
I thought they would be closer. But they never seem to be.
by John Sickels on Jan 28, 2010 2:55 PM EST up reply actions
I think
these are a lot closer than these polls show.
"mark kotsay for $1.5 million. or jim thome for $1.5 million.
gosh. i’m going to have to think about this one for a bit." larry
"We're gonna do this f*ucking thing over again cuz I just f*cked it up.....oh, we're live, I didn't know that" Bert Blyleven
Well, the poll only asks which is better
it doesn’t ask by how wide a margin.
Freude, schoener Goetterfunken,
Tochter aus Elysium,
Wir betreten feuertrunken,
Himmlische dein Heiligtum.
hey john
just saw Aaron Gleeman of rotoworld tweet that he, or other rotoworld writers would do interviews to promote their draft guide. . .could be interesting, and not really a conflict of interest. Figure most people on here use rotoworld too. .
I went w/ Friedrich
but thought it’d be even more lopsided in favor of Perez.
A closer matchup probably would be Friedrch vs Mejia, or Bumgarner vs Perez.
Could someone post the comparables for Friedrich?
Just curious…b/c in my mind there seems like NO way anyone should/would pick him over Perez.
"The mystery of the beginning of all things is insoluble by us; and I for one must be content to remain an agnostic" - Charles Darwin, you know who he is...
when I saw video of Friedrich
I immediately thought of Cliff Lee
by richieabernathy on Jan 28, 2010 9:52 PM EST up reply actions
I'll take Friedrich...
Really underrated stuff…
im a rangers fan
and know very little about friedrich so my vote probably shouldn’t count. but i voted for perez anyway.
however after reading this discussion thread i would still pick perez.
younger, same level, and better fastball, and above average complimentary pitches.
the fastball will stay and things can be added around it. i just hope the rangers dont do something stupid and try and make him a closer, or that nolan ryan doesn’t make him throw like 200 pitches a start cuz in according to nolan ryan “in my day pitchers were men, who were lumberjacks in the off-season and didnt worry about fatiuge”
Fresh since 1822
The Nolan pitch count thing
Isn’t to have each pitcher throw an arbitrary, Dusty Baker-like number of pitches per start. It’s more about not treating 100 as a magic number for pitch totals, but rather finding the point where an individual pitcher hits a fatigue point regurlarly. For Jon Garland or Joe Blanton, that might be 110-120 pitches (warning: numbers pulled out of ass) while for Rich Harden or Neftali Perez (yes, I know, a meme, not a prospect) it might be 90-95.
Nolan’s pitch count philsophy is actually a bit more advanced than what’s generally out there, and certainly not ‘In my day, we threw 30 outings of 160 pitches and sold peanuts in the stands on off days!’ that gets bandied about.
Look at the comments under Jeff Wilson's blog post on dallasnews.com. What a bunch of rocket scientists.- Keith Law
Curse your sudden but inevitable betrayal!
by Keynes on Jan 29, 2010 9:16 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
looking at ceilings..
So, if Friedrich is Cliff Lee…
and Perez is Johan Santana…
which ceiling would you take? I think that’s pretty easy to answer…
"The mystery of the beginning of all things is insoluble by us; and I for one must be content to remain an agnostic" - Charles Darwin, you know who he is...
BUT
What if Friedrich’s ceiling is Steve Carlton…
and Perez’s is Oliver Perez…
THEN who would you take? Not so simple, is it?
by Daniel Berlyn on Jan 31, 2010 12:58 AM EST up reply actions
Friedrich.
I like Perez’s velocity with developing secondary stuff; however, I feel Friedrich’s secondary stuff will end up being better than Perez’s and that’ll make Friedrich the better pitcher. The scouting reports I’ve read say that the slider and fastball have developed to the point where he’s got one plus plus pitch (the curveball) and two plus offerings (fastball and slider) and one ehhh pitch (the changeup). Friedrich’s command is solid and he’ll make a solid #2-3 in the Rockies rotation.
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