MLB.com (Jonathan Mayo) Top 50 prospects for 2010
by jibs on Jan 27, 2010 9:27 PM EST
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http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100127&content_id=7983130&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb
The Montero ranking will get a lot of attention.
| Rank | Name | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jason Heyward | ATL |
| 2 | Stephen Strasburg | WAS |
| 3 | Mike Stanton | FLA |
| 4 | Buster Posey | SF |
| 5 | Brian Matusz | BAL |
| 6 | Desmond Jennings | TB |
| 7 | Neftali Feliz | TEX |
| 8 | Pedro Alvarez | PIT |
| 9 | Justin Smoak | TEX |
| 10 | Madison Bumgarner | SF |
| 11 | Carlos Santana | CLE |
| 12 | Alcides Escobar | MIL |
| 13 | Wade Davis | TB |
| 14 | Domonic Brown | PHI |
| 15 | Dustin Ackley | SEA |
| 16 | Brett Wallace | TOR |
| 17 | Kyle Drabek | TOR |
| 18 | Martin Perez | TEX |
| 19 | Jesus Montero | NYY |
| 20 | Jeremy Hellickson | TB |
| 21 | Jarrod Parker | ARI |
| 22 | Starlin Castro | CHI |
| 23 | Christian Friedrich | COL |
| 24 | Tim Beckham | TB |
| 25 | Logan Morrison | FLA |
| 26 | Brett Lawrie | MIL |
| 27 | Ryan Westmoreland | BOS |
| 28 | Casey Kelly | BOS |
| 29 | Aaron Hicks | MIN |
| 30 | Yonder Alonso | CIN |
| 31 | Jason Castro | HOU |
| 32 | Mike Moustakas | KC |
| 33 | Wil Myers | KC |
| 34 | Julio Teheran | ATL |
| 35 | Michael Taylor | OAK |
| 36 | Dee Gordon | LAD |
| 37 | Chris Carter | OAK |
| 38 | Austin Jackson | DET |
| 39 | Tanner Scheppers | TEX |
| 40 | Drew Storen | WAS |
| 41 | Aaron Crow | KC |
| 42 | Jacob Turner | DET |
| 43 | Mike Montgomery | KC |
| 44 | Jhoulys Chacin | COL |
| 45 | Jose Iglesias | BOS |
| 46 | Michael Brantley | CLE |
| 47 | Phillippe Aumont | PHI |
| 48 | Juan Francisco | CIN |
| 49 | Ethan Martin | LAD |
| 50 | Jaff Decker | SD |
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forgot to add
He lists #51 to #60 in the article:
51. Tyler Matzek, LHP, COL
52. Jennry Mejia, RHP, NYM
53. Mike Leake, RHP, CIN
54. Casey Crosby, LHP, DET
55. Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B, CLE
56. Nick Hagadone, LHP, CLE
57. Mike Trout, OF, LAA
58. Mike Minor, LHP, ATL
59. Freddie Freeman, 1B, ATL
60. Derek Norris, C, WAS
So will
Juan Francisco, Drew Storen, and probably ETHAN MARTIN!!! although I may agree with that last one. Francisco has no business inside of a top 150 list let alone a top 50. Drew Storen is a reliever with limited pro ball experience.
I have Francisco on my team...
And I struggled whether or not to keep him – and this is a twenty team league with 10 keepers. In other words I had to decide if he was a top 200 minor leaguer. I’m keeping him, but it’s not by much. I see him in the 100-150 range.
The wind is in the buffalo.
Francisco
With the way Mayo compiles the list (asks scouts their Top 30, then assigns points), one rogue scout who absolutely loves Francisco’s bat and ranks him say, 15th, will get Francisco into the rankings while if everyone he asked had the exact same #31 prospect, that guy doesn’t get a single vote. Francisco wouldn’t likely make my Top 100, no way he should be #48, but when you make a list this way one strong opinion makes a difference.
That's how he's done it in the past
He didn’t specify how he did it this year.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
Yes he did
I went back and watched the show on MLB Network and he did say its how he did it again this year.
Once again, no Withrow
I like E. Martin getting attention, but I think he is a top 50 pitching prospect, not all of MLB…
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Jan 27, 2010 9:40 PM EST reply actions
yeah
ethan martin should not be top 50… maybe withrows name should be there instead..
also.. aumonte austin jackson drew storen, juan francisco, tim beckham jarrod parker and teheran are too way high
I could see top 50 for pitchers
because of his potential upside.. we are talking right handed Kershaw type upside. However, he is too young and too raw to be on a top 50 of all prospects, IMO
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Jan 27, 2010 10:45 PM EST up reply actions
Iglesias is too high for me
i dont think hes top 50 material
5 MORE YEARS OF FELIX!
his value isn't in his bat
You aren’t wrong. But this isn’t fantasy baseball. If his defense is as good as they say, he projects to be a 3 win player easily. If his bat is any better than below, he is a very very valuable player.
Bat: -10
Glove: 10-15
Positional: 7.5
Replacement: 22.5
Follow me at http://twitter.com/JDSussman
Remember: baseball guys... baseball...
10-15 is a bit much to project for a SS prospect
That would make him an top 5 SS defensively in the MLB. It would be better to project as around +5 runs.
by tdot mariner fan on Jan 29, 2010 12:13 AM EST up reply actions
The reports pretty much all say he could be a top 5 SS defensively in the majors
Many say “the best” and more than once Ive seen the ozzie smith comp thrown out there.
to call any 19 year old who has NO bat
Ozzie Smith is quite naive
(I know you said you have heard it, not that you said it, just putting it out there in general)
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Jan 29, 2010 1:06 AM EST up reply actions
The comp, Id imagine, is overwhelmingly based on defense
Though I seem to remember someone comparing line drive swings… not sure on that.
Why would the bat part bother you…? Ozzie Smith… not such a Wizard at the plate. Career .262/.337/.328 (.666 OPS).
I’ll go out on a limb and say Iglesias can probably hit at least that well (Probably even higher SLG, perhaps slightly lower AVG… too early to tell). Lots of people have actually had good reviews on Iglesias’s bat potential. Law for instance. Im not a big fan, but Im kind of coming around. The hit tool doesn’t look bad, really. I can even see some power projection – mostly gap to gap variety. My concern is all sources agree he’s a real hacker.
Offensively, he does have some bat speed, and scouts see a good rhythm in his swing, and he’s even surprised some with occasional power.
Like many Cubans, he has a swing-at-anything approach
"Many" say "the best"
Post a few. Just your recollection is good enough for me – I’m not asking you to go off and do a report.
Done
Iglesias’ defensive work can only be described as special, with one scout describing his pre-game workouts in the Arizona Fall League as "the equivalent of a live-action instructional video on everything a shortstop should do." His range is plus to both sides, his actions are notable for their speed and smoothness, while his arm is both strong and accurate.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9762
If you’re a pitcher on the Mesa squad, you’re lobbying to have Florida Marlins third baseman Matt Dominguez and Boston Red Sox shortstop Jose Iglesias man the left side of the infield when you take the hill. Both are the best I’ve seen in the minors defensively at their respective positions this season.
Scouts who have seen Iglesias liken him to Ozzie Smith defensively.
"His hands and arm are deluxe,’’ one American League executive said.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/baseball/mlb/07/03/redsox.iglesias/
Iglesias has [drawn] attention for his flashy glovework at shortstop, with one scout grading his fielding as an 80 on the 20-80 scouting scale.
An international scouting director called Iglesias’ total package, "Ryan Theriot with better hands."
http://joyofsox.blogspot.com/2009/07/report-sox-sign-cuban-ss-jose-iglesias.html
Some scouts describe his defense as major-league ready right now
http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/tag/jose-iglesias/
Defensively, Iglesias can play shortstop in the big leagues right now
http://baseballbeginnings.com/2009/12/13/jose-iglesias-report/
Iglesias is said to have a plus plus glove and a plus arm, and has drawn comparisons to Ozzie Smith.
http://news.soxprospects.com/2009/07/report-sox-sign-cuban-defector-iglesias.html
The Red Sox will get their first look at Cuban shortstop Jose Iglesias, who they signed for $8.5MM back in July, in the Arizona Fall League. Gammons spoke to an NL GM who said he would have given Iglesias $12MM if his team could afford it, because "Our scouts say he’s the best defensive shortstop they’ve ever seen."
http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=4448570&name=gammons_peter
by alskor on Jan 29, 2010 12:37 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
As near as I can tell without insider access
KG says he’s the best he saw in the minors that season and one NL GM is reported to have said his scouts think he’s the best they’ve ever seen.
I don’t think that its a fair interpretation to say that “many” profile him to be the best in baseball.
Im saying you're absolutely full of crap
You asked for examples and I gave you plenty. You’re clearly looking for a reason to not believe it.
I get the feeling I could have listed quotes from every MLB GM stating the same stuff and you’d still be trying to poke holes in it. Pretty ridiculous stuff.
this list is hella weird.
especially having iglesias, aumont, francisco, and martin in the top 50.
… and wil myers that high…. jeez, when i do my updated top 150, nobody will even notice how much i like Myers now, because he’ll be 35 spots lower than where Mayo has him
LOVE Wil Myers
But I am with you – he falls just outside my top 50.
Meh, no real problem leaving him off a Top 50
No Fernando Martinez is much more surprising to me, no Jenrry Mejia either. They’ve both been on just about every other Top 50 I’ve seen.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Jan 27, 2010 10:20 PM EST up reply actions
FYI
Mayo talked about that on the MLB network; said Fernando had too much service time in the majors, lost his prospect status for that reason. I don’t understand how that works, but that is what he said, FWIW.
That's weird, he's still got rookie eligibility
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Jan 28, 2010 2:26 AM EST up reply actions
Service time vs ABs
By explaining that F.M. had too much service time I think it implies that he was on an ML roster (including DL time) too long so that even though he’s under the number of rookie-eligible ABs he timed his way out of consideration for his list.
No one else seems to treat it that way but whatever …
Also, no Josh Thole!?!?!
(I keed, I keed)
by Frayed Knot on Jan 28, 2010 10:12 AM EST up reply actions
But he didn't spend that much time on a MLB roster
He’s still eligible for rookie of the year in 2010. He did not pass the service time requirement.
add in the DL time
Between the time he spent on the active ML roster and the DL he got credit for 132 days of ML service.
I’m not saying that I agree with tallying it that way but that has to be what Mayo is counting.
by Frayed Knot on Jan 28, 2010 12:22 PM EST up reply actions
No one else counts DL time towards ROY service time, Not MLB, BA, etc...
Does a year spent on the disabled list count as a full season for arbitration and free-agency purposes?
Yes, time on the DL counts as service time. The only exception is that it doesn’t count against Rookie of the Year eligibility. So when Chipper Jones spent the 1994 season on the disabled list, he got credit for a year of service time, but was still a rookie in 1995.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/help/faq.html
Very strange way for them to approach it.
Yes
According to Keith Law, he had exactly 45 days, and thus is still eligible (1 more game would have made him inelligible). So seeing as he was right at the limit, it sounds as though they just made an error.
Actually ...
Martinez was called up on May 26 and DL’d on July 4
So that means he was active for 6 days in May, 30 more in June, and then 4 (or maybe just 3) in July and never was activated again.
Now 6 + 30 + 4 = 40 … or at least it did when I went to school although admittedly that was a while ago and things are so different these days — so it seems to me he should have been eligible, but Law cited him right up at the top of the show as an example of someone who had maxed out his rookie service time and therefore wouldn’t be on his list.
Someone’s math isn’t adding up.
Were there games all those days?
Im not 100% on this, but Im not sure days without games count. You don’t earn a gamecheck for them, for instance.
More like 36 days ...
Looks like there were 4 off-days thrown in – which means FM’s total “active time” is even less than 40 which (last I checked) is even less than 45
Not sure how/where Mayo is coming up with that 45 total.
I'm pretty sure you do earn Service Time days even if your team isn't playing
A full year of service time is 180 days, so that’s the full season plus 18 days. Players can’t earn more than 180 days in a season, though seasons sometimes last more than 180 days.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Jan 29, 2010 1:03 AM EST up reply actions
Ah... pretty sure you're right
I knew it didn’t sound right. I was thinking of there being more possible service time days than you could actually accumulate…
Who do you think I am? Dewey Finn?
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Jan 28, 2010 1:23 PM EST up reply actions
Montero at 19?
Keep in mind though, unless Mayo’s changed the way he’s doing it this year, usually his list is just a compilation of lists he gets from scouts.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
Which is funny
Given that he has 5 1B’s in his top 50.
Haven't you heard?
First base is the new centerfield…defense is the priority. Can someone please give Casey Kotchman a 100M contract?
"Hey Fat Kid...the monster is right behind you! RUNNNN!!" -The Host
by bwellnjonesco on Jan 28, 2010 3:41 PM EST up reply actions
I found the Starlin Castro report mildly interesting
Castro exploded on the scene in 2009, making his full-season debut as the youngest regular in the Class A Advanced Florida State League. He showed an innate ability to make consistent, hard contact. He hits to all fields and while he hasn’t shown it yet, there’s probably some power in there once he matures. He’s got outstanding speed, which he’ll put to better use as he learns the nuances of baserunning. He’s a plus defender at shortstop, as well.
In particularly, I found the speed stuff interesting. I’ve been saying for awhile that Castro has the raw speed, but doesn’t have the game speed.
I find plus defender interesting
Especially as they aren’t saying that’s a projection, they’re saying he is one now. I only saw him a few times, and it’s hard to say for sure bsed on that. I thought he can probably play SS, but I wasn’t real sure he stays there, and really wasn’t thinking he’d be a plus defender there.
by acerimusdux on Jan 27, 2010 11:36 PM EST up reply actions
I'm not sure about "likely"
http://mlb.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?content_id=7150953
Watch the video clips as well. The defensive clip is at 2B. Can’t tell much, but I think you can see why people think the power will come, but also why he could be a 2B or 3B. As he does fill out more, I think he could also lose a step and might fit better at 3B. But for now he should stay at SS. I wish they had a clip of him running.
also
People here like to assume that a player 8 months younger than Castro that finished the season 3 levels behind him will block him from the position at the major league level.
agreed ... I really like Lee
but geesh I sure think some folks are overhyping him a bit. He’s got several more years to go and enough issues to work on. He might end up better defensively, but that’ll take several years, and Castro establishes himself at short first, it’ll make it that much tougher for Lee to push him off.
One theory
Although it shouldn’t enter into the analysis and ranking of Starlin, I’ve seen some outlets speculate that Castro might have to move because Hak Ju Lee is a superior defender at SS. Just a theory.
tbh
I don’t think he’s a plus defender yet. I’m mildly surprised at that comment as well. Solid, yes. Good? Probably. Plus? Seems a bit of a stretch until he becomes more consistent.
I watched the show
And the video they had of Desmond Jennings showed him running the bases and he looked REALLY fast.
RIVER CATS: AAA CHAMPS!
How on Earth...
is Brett Wallace 19 spots above Michael Taylor? They have pretty similar offensive profiles (in value if not necessarily how they get to that value) and Taylor’s in another league entirely defensively.
Brett isn’t the best at third, but he is a thirdbaseman, which is more valuable than an outfielder.
"Hey Fat Kid...the monster is right behind you! RUNNNN!!" -The Host
by bwellnjonesco on Jan 28, 2010 3:44 PM EST up reply actions
He is not a 3B anymore
He never really was one, for that matter, but its official now. Jays have made him a 1B only.
well there goes my guess…
"Hey Fat Kid...the monster is right behind you! RUNNNN!!" -The Host
by bwellnjonesco on Jan 28, 2010 4:19 PM EST up reply actions
Wallace-3B
If by “never really was one” you mean he’d be the starting 3Bman for the Cardinals this year if they hadn’t been able to acquire one of the best hitters in the game then yes, Wallace was never really a 3Bman.
Average D isn’t the worst thing when you can rake.
Ok
That was supposed to be in response to the people talking about Wallace but I guess hitting the reply button twice matters very little.
by UncleBuck44 on Jan 29, 2010 10:09 AM EST up reply actions
No
If the Cardinals thought he could play third base he would have been in the majors last year playing third and he wouldn’t have been dealt.
He doesn’t have any range and he’s MUCH worse than an average defender at third. He may have good hands, but that means very little when you don’t get to any ground balls.
As a Cards fan I can tell you
They were never going to bring him up to play 3rd base last year. They weren’t going to rush him more than they had. He should have been hitting a little better than he was for how good a hitter he is. I remember he started out on fire at AAA hitting like .380 or something ridiculous and it had everyone wanting him in St. Louis. Then he went into a big slump and was hitting like .250. His numbers at Springfield and Memphis were solid but not great.
And Alskor, you can say I’m the only one who thinks his defense was going to be average but that would be wrong. Range was the main concern but the same can be said for Troy Glaus who was our 3B in 2008. Wallace’s arm and hands were fine. I saw him several times at ASU his junior year and I read many reports from Cards fans who were able to get to his games in the minors in the short time he was in the organization. Most were surprised at how decent he was at third. Gold glover? Never. Lifetime 3Bman? Maybe not. Average? Depends on what you think average is but I’d say so.
BTW, they didn’t mind trading him because we got Matt f’in Holliday in return.
by UncleBuck44 on Jan 29, 2010 11:44 AM EST up reply actions
You're STILL the only one who thinks his defense is average
Lots of analysts have said the Cards didn’t mind trading him because they had given up on him ever playing 3B for them.
Jaff Decker
Is being under valued to the extreme across every board I have seen. Since when is baseball a swit suit contest. I’m going all in on the chubby fellow. Good luck with that catapult from 50 to the top 10 this time next year. John
"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."
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