Brett Anderson
by pedrophile on Jan 27, 2010 12:27 AM EST
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PrintI've read an awful lot about him before this year and especially this year. A lot of the hype has been justified and some not.
Fastball - some starts it sat around 90-91 and peaked at 93. He didn't do so well then. But many of his starts he was around 94-96 consistently. When he was throwing 95 he also threw a 2 seamer I believe. That or a type of cutter. His location was fairly good but the usual young players lack of command (mistakes in the zone, etc.).
Slider - This was the pitch many raved about. Even guys using pitch f/x saying it was the best slider in baseball. I guess they need to turn a tv on and watch Zack. Or just turn a tv on and watch Brett try and locate his for a strike. It's an excellent out pitch and he does locate it once in a while. But it's definitely not a plus plus pitch. To me it's borderline plus. Borderline because when a hitter swings they won't be hitting it, but it can't be located well enough.
Change - This is the pitch I love. Nice tight late break. Very repeatable. Good location in and out of the zone. Nice arm action. I've seen a 2-0 count followed by 3 changes for a strikeout. Sweet. Needs to use it a lot more against lefties, especially on days where he doesn't have his best fastball.
I have a little concern for the large velocity spike. For some reason guys with a big jump tend to get injured the next year. I'm a little less concerned after hearing about the workout regimen contributing. And I hope that his velocity is more consistent throughout the season.
But even without the velocity I think he could be a good pitcher. He would just have to use the change in more 0-0 counts and mix his pitches better. That and locate his slider better in the zone. Because when he is throwing 90-91 even with movement it seems quite hittable, maybe it's just very visible from the hitters eyes (not hidden at all).
With his velocity though he could be an ace this year. Maybe not a Greinke/Felix/Halladay type yet. I expect he will have a few days where it will come apart. Having that focus all year and limiting damage is a big progression. But I think he has the stuff to become a true ace. Sooner rather than later. Be excited.
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Hmm
I have a little concern for the large velocity spike. For some reason guys with a big jump tend to get injured the next year.
I’ve never heard this ever. Is this true? Was there a study done?
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Jan 27, 2010 3:24 AM EST reply actions
study?
I’m not sure if it’s based on a study. I’ve read about this or heard about it from many different sources but I’m not sure the originator. Hagadone was one player that was referenced on this. There have been quite a few others but my memory isn’t helping me right now.
I don't know of any studies
But it’s a phenomenon I’ve noticed a few times. ‘Course, it’s not like I’ve been keeping detailed records of my baseball watching over the years so I couldn’t say with absolute certainty if the occurrence of injury is significantly greater for pitchers who see spikes in velocity vs. a guy who just blows his arm out.
The theory, as I understand it, is that the ligaments are getting stretched out and the arm is essentially lengthening (thus creating more leverage) every time the pitcher makes a pitch. The added velocity is a result of that increased leverage but eventually the muscles get stretched too far and tear.
The monster at the end of this blog.
awesome
i just replied in the Billingsley thread about Anderson — and it turns out you were writing a whole post on him.
anyway, rather than retype everything, i’ll just cut to the essence (and refer back to that post if you want) — roughly where do you see him fitting in behind Greinke, et al.
for instance, should he be drafted ahead of Billingsley, Beckett, Vazquez, Lester and Cain? in front of Yovani and Kershaw? ahead of Ubaldo Jimenez and James Shields?
who’re good short- and long-term comps?
Obviously the league makeup determines a lot, but…
Lester – I would draft him first in that group
Lackey – probably draft him second. If he was in Anaheim it would be for sure.
Beckett I wouldn’t draft because you pay for the name. He wouldn’t be around at this spot.
Cain – I’d probably take him here
Brett Anderson – I would probably take him here.
Vazquez you will pay for last year, good luck at Yankee Stadium. He thrives when pressure is taken away, not when it’s added. So again he won’t be around where he really is worth. And I would probably take most of the other guys you listed before Vazquez.
I love this series
Just wanted to say thanks for all of these posts on young pitchers, they are excellent. Can’t wait to see what pitcher you review next.
RIP Nick Adenhart
It's funny you mention that
I nearly asked pedrophile about Matusz in my post, but I wasn’t sure if he had enough starts for him to go back and get a good read on or not. I’d definitely be interested to hear about him though if it is possible.
RIP Nick Adenhart
the difficulty isn't in number of starts
I try and watch starts where the pitcher dominated, where he struggled. Also try and find good starts against good teams, bad starts against bad teams. Try to see if their velocity or stuff has progressed, etc.
For example with Brett Anderson and Homer Bailey they both had two very different types of stuff. Both of them had full games where their velocity was down 3-5 mph and their breaking stuff had much less break. It affected how they were able to pitch. Kind of gives you an idea how they will fare if their stuff is downgraded (ie cold days, overworked, etc.)
This helps me get a real good idea. With Matusz this will be more difficult. I can do it, I’m just not sure how accurate I can be. I will take a look and see what feel I get.
shortened version =
blah blah blah, I will take a look and see.
I could honestly see him doing what Kershaw has done with doing pretty well in his first year, and then really turning it on in his 2nd year.
my guess
is a 4.25 ERA next year showing flashes of what he can especially at the end of the year. Then in ‘11 being about a half run better. Effectively being a very good #3. If that curve doesn’t tighten up though I’m not sure.
ha!
I read my own comments wondering what the hell I was talking about. Then realized I posted a response about Matusz on the wrong thread. hahaha.
Matusz should put up solid numbers but normal struggles next year. Anderson will kick some serious ass. No Cy Young for him but I’d be shocked if he’s not in the top 10.
boston start
Anderson had a start against Boston, I don’t recall his final line but it was impressive, where I couldn’t believe how good his stuff was. He seemed to take off from that start, he could be among the league best in the next couple of years provided health and focus.
final line
9 IP, 2 H, 2 BB, 9 K, 0 R
by richieabernathy on Jan 30, 2010 3:03 PM EST up reply actions
His Velocity
was up pretty consistently from June on. That was also, perhaps no coincidence, when he stopped moving around on the rubber depending on whether he was facing a lefty or righty. His release point became more stable and regular from that point on. From June on, last year, with the exception of 2 starts, his average fastball velocity was in the 93-95 mph range. And in those two exception starts, his average velocity was in the 90-93 mph range. It wasn’t a spike. He gained some velocity a third of the way through the season and maintained it through the end of the season.
Brett
talked an awful lot about how much in season workouts helped his strength and endurance and he credited it with much of his velocity gain. For what it’s worth.
Was the best rookie pitcher in baseball last year...
That Boston start was a 10 K shutout…From then on everytime I saw him he was throwing 92-95 with a sick slider. His stuff looked as good as Lester’s…I shit you not.
I think you're way off on Anderson's slider, pedrophile
He can throw it for a strike, it’s just that like a splitter if you have a pitch that disappears late after looking like a strike, that batters consistently swing and miss when it’s out of the zone, why throw it for a strike? He buries it on purpose.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Agree
I saw him throw plenty of first pitch strikes with the slider though… I think he can locate it. His main issues last year were being in the zone almost too much at times… or perhaps thats the missing location in the zone. He’s in for a big year.
If Anderson is relying on sliders out of the zone, he is going to have to make an adjustment. Advanced scouting reports put together by people who have watched all his starts, like pedrophile here, are going to be all over that and so will the hitters that read them. Throwing a slider 32.3% of the time isn’t a good thing anyway. He is going to have to mix in his change up more to keep hitters off balance. Look what happened with Felix Hernandez and the regression he went through after no one swung at his curve anymore. It’s now been replaced by a slider and he’s back producing at a high level
"mark kotsay for $1.5 million. or jim thome for $1.5 million.
gosh. i’m going to have to think about this one for a bit." larry
"We're gonna do this f*ucking thing over again cuz I just f*cked it up.....oh, we're live, I didn't know that" Bert Blyleven
here for comparison
compare Anderson with 2006 Francisco Liriano who’s slider was at 23 Wins. Note the differences in the contact percentage and strike thrown percentages. Liriano did his work in the zone
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8223&position=P
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8223&position=P
i’ll throw in Felix too
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4772&position=P
note the differences in contact % guys can hit anderson and if he is forced into the zone he will have to adjust to mantain success
"mark kotsay for $1.5 million. or jim thome for $1.5 million.
gosh. i’m going to have to think about this one for a bit." larry
"We're gonna do this f*ucking thing over again cuz I just f*cked it up.....oh, we're live, I didn't know that" Bert Blyleven
and here's grienke
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1943&position=P
note the differences in z contact %
"mark kotsay for $1.5 million. or jim thome for $1.5 million.
gosh. i’m going to have to think about this one for a bit." larry
"We're gonna do this f*ucking thing over again cuz I just f*cked it up.....oh, we're live, I didn't know that" Bert Blyleven
andersons slider is a GB machine
when batters put it in play it was 60%+ GB…
by matthewmafa on Jan 30, 2010 10:45 PM EST up reply actions
Is anyone worried
about how often he throws the slider? That paired with the velocity spike scares me. Look at how quickly Liriano and Volquez went down with the amount of sliders they throw.
Slider
Based on what I’ve seen his slider is utterly untouchable. He made hitters look absolutely silly with it.
if anything negative can be said ...
It can be too untouchable. So it’s out of the zone. I’m sure you’ve watched Greinke. Watch him again. His slider doesn’t really slide. And it doesn’t drop as much as Anderson’s. But it’s exactly like a fastball and so hittable. Then the bottom drops out like a roller coaster ride. How do you adjust? You don’t. You just hope he can’t throw it for strikes because if he is you are done.
This isn’t a negative on Brett, after all I’m comparing his pitch to the best pitch in the game. High praise indeed.
anderson
when batters hit the slider in playing…. it was a big time GB PITCH… i dont know where you are getting this from that he cant throw it for a strike
from watching him
Obviously we see something different.
I see him throw it inside on RH hitters and then miss or it’s sawing off their bats and getting a weak out. If they didn’t swing it would have been a ball.
I see him throw it to LH hitters as a chase pitch. If a hitter swings at this they miss it or again get a weak grounder. Again this is not thrown for a strike.
I guess where we disagree is in results VS projection. Those pitches were strikes. They got excellent swings and misses. They caused a lot of ground balls. Yes. But hitters will start laying off his best pitch. They read scouting reports better than mine. And when they lay off he will get behind in the count.
Also, take a look at what smooth posted. It shows his high chase percent and sick numbers when hitters chase. Then look at in zone numbers which are not as good. This will be a factor.
I really like Anderson, one of the best up and coming young pitchers. But I think you are very biased.
hah
im biased for saying his slider is a GB pitch.. nice
lol
I guessed you missed the part where I agreed with you on getting GB on the pitch. And I’m guessing you also missed the part where I disagreed with this part of your post “i dont know where you are getting this from that he cant throw it for a strike”.
And since you either missed both of these or wouldn’t address them, my belief in your bias.
yeah
He does get a ton of swing and misses with his slider so you wonder when hitters will start to just sit on his fastball. But Anderson throws a lot of strikes and doesn’t walk, an indication that he is always around the zone.
You are correct that he doesn’t locate it as well right now but he can certainly improve. It took Greinke a long time to click and while I’m not predicting that kind of breakout from BA, he is ahead of Greinke in development.
to me
he will never ever approach some things Greinke does. I’m not sure about you, but watching Greinke makes me feel he is the perfect pitcher. Yeah, there are stretches others are better or he struggled. But he had some of the worse D in baseball. I watched every game he pitched. The last couple his D was brutal. And the stretch where he struggled, and it was his own fault, he just couldn’t locate his slider for strikes. And the opposing teams knew they couldn’t hit it so took pitches all day.
Will Brett ever have that brutal a D and that brutal an O that he has to try to be perfect like Greinke? I just can’t believe Zack didn’t fall apart under the pressure and horrible team he had.
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