Top 50 Hitting Prospects from 2005: In Review
by John Sickels on Jan 25, 2010 3:17 PM EST
Email
PrintLast year we looked at the Top 50 Hittting Prospects from the 2004 book. Today we will look at the Top 50 Hitting Prospects from 2005, to see how things turned out. Tomorrow we will do the pitchers.
Top 50 Hitting Prospects of 2005
1) Andy Marte, 3B, Braves: Hit 23 homers in Double-A at age 20. But he never grew from that basis, stalling out as a Triple-A slugger so far. It's not impossible that he could still have a career, but it's doubtful at this point. The normal age/development curve didn't apply in his case, but we didn't know that at the time.
2) Joel Guzman, SS, Dodgers: Slugged .522 in Double-A at age 19. Like Marte, stalled out in Triple-A, with bad plate discipline a big problem. Another age-curve bust.
3) Ian Stewart, 3B, Rockies: Monster season at Asheville at age 19, but couldn't completely replicate this at higher levels. Hit 25 homers in the majors at age 24, but hit just .228 last year. I still expect him to have a productive career though not likely to be a star.
4) Delmon Young, OF, Rays: Hasn't put everything together yet, but he's a career .290/.322/.416 hitter and is still just 24. OPS has been flat for three years but not yet in his prime.
5) Daric Barton, C, Athletics: Has hit just .249/.348/.394 in the majors, but plate discipline remains excellent and at 24 he still has time to figure things out.
6) Prince Fielder, 1B, Brewers: Career .284/.381/.550 hitter with 160 homers already.
7) Casey Kotchman, 1B, Angels: Career .269/.337/.406 hitter, injuries have been a hassle, power hasn't developed. Disappointing.
8) Dallas McPherson, 3B, Angels: Injuries and problems with strikeouts/plate discipline kept him from fulfilling potential. Career .245/.298/.458 hitter, with 18 homers in 371 at-bats.
9) Carlos Quentin, OF, Diamondbacks: Excellent 2008 season shows what he can do when healthy. He just can't stay healthy.
10) Jeremy Reed, OF, Mariners: Career .255/.312/.357 hitter. Just not very good; I was seduced by gaudy batting averages, though in fairness he did show excellent plate discipline in the minors.
11) Hanley Ramirez, SS, Red Sox: .316/.386/.531 hitter as a shortstop, outstanding player.
12) Chris Nelson, SS, Rockies: All the tools are here, but he remains injury-prone and stuck in Double-A. Still just 24.
13) Erick Aybar, SS, Angels: .285/.324/.383 in the majors, including .312/.353/.423 last year. Likely to have a very long career.
14) Rickie Weeks, 2B, Brewers: Injuries are the main problem here; although not a superstar, he's a solid player when he can stay on the field.
15) Jason Kubel, OF, Twins: Very impressive in 2009, career. 278/.339/.474 hitter, now entering his prime seasons.
16) Kendry Morales, 1B, Angels: Took some time to adjust, but now a career .283/.334/.505 hitter.
17) Grady Sizemore, OF, Indians: Career .275/.367/.485 hitter; I'm not worried about '09 slippage.
18) Nick Swisher, OF, Athletics: Career .245/.357/.460 hitter, plenty of power and patience.
19) Ryan Howard, 1B, Phillies: Career .279/.376/.586 hitter, loads of power, patience, strikeouts.
20) Stephen Drew, SS, Diamondbacks: .270/.326/.445 hitter with a shortstop's glove.
21) Conor Jackson, OF, Diamondbacks: .281/.361/.431, has been a decent hitter when healthy but not spectacular.
22) Michael Aubrey, 1B, Indians: Just now getting some major league time after years of injuries. .294/.350/.467 hitter in the minors; could have been really good if not for the back problems.
23) Omar Quintanilla, INF, Athletics: Highly over-rated after a great season in the California and Texas Leagues, further evidence not to be too impressed by performances in those venues. .220/.277/.290 hitter in the maojrs.
24) Eric Duncan, 3B, Yankees: Skills remained flat for awhile then declined starting in '07. Just didn't develop.
25) Shin-Soo Choo, OF, Mariners: Injuries and lack of opportunity stalled him for awhile, but he's been excellent the last two seasons. Career .296/.386/.491 hitter.
26) Wes Bankston, 1B, Rays: Impressive seasons in '04 and '05, but leveled off after that, had some injuries, another bat that stalled out.
27) Brian Dopirak, 1B, Cubs: Looked like he was finished after injuries and strikeout problems struck, but has rebounded with strong '08 and '09 seasons in the Blue Jays system. Could still have a career.
28) Edwin Encarnacion, 3B, Reds: Career .260/.341/.448 player, not a star but has performed well at times.
29) Jon Zeringue, OF, Diamondbacks: Strike zone judgment failed at higher levels, career .263/.332/.435 hitter in the minors.
30) Jeremy Hermida, OF, Marlins: Career .265//.344/.425 hitter. Was stalled in Florida, perhaps change of scenery in Boston will help.
31) Chris Burke, 2B, Astros: Showed some flashes but it never came together all the way. Career .239/.315/.359 hitter.
32) Franklin Gutierrez, OF, Indians: Held back for awhile by poor strike zone judgment, but started to put things together last year. Career .268/.321/.415 thus far, great glove.
33) Brad Snyder, OF, Indians: Bat stalled out in Triple-A, has some power, will take a walk, but strikeouts eat him up.
34) Joey Votto, 1B, Reds: Career .310/.388/.536 hitter. I'd say that's pretty damn good.
35) Richie Robnett, OF, Athletics: Terrific tools but never developed the skills to go with them.
36) Howie Kendrick, 2B, Angels: Career .302/.333/.434 hitter, with injury problems.
37) Nick Markakis, OF, Orioles: Career .298/.367/.470 hitter, and not yet in his prime.
38) Val Majewski, OF, Orioles: Missed all of 2005 with injury and was never the same after that.
39) Ian Kinsler, SS, Rangers: Career .279/.350/.477 hitter with unusual power for a middle infielder, lots of speed too.
40) Ryan Garko, 1B, Indians: Career .279/.351/.441 hitter, a decent usable player but not a star.
41) Jeff Francoeur, OF, Braves: Flashes star potential but inability/unwillingness to work the strike zone holds him back. Career .271/.311/.432 hitter.
42) Brian McCann, C, Braves: Career .293/.356/.497.
43) Billy Butler, 1B, Royals: Career .291/.346/.451, power started to develop in '09, still just 23.
44) Brandon Moss, OF, Red Sox: .241/.307/.393 so far in 646 at-bats. If he can hold a job long enough, seems like a good candidate for one of those age 27/28 performance spikes.
45) Mitch Einertson, OF, Astros: Hit 25 homers in his first 64 pro games out of high school, which may have been the worst thing to happen to him. Other than a good year in the Carolina League in '07, he hasn't done anything since.
46) Hernan Iribarren, 2B, Brewers: Career .314/.371/.418 hitter in the minors, but has never received more than a brief major league trial.
47) Curtis Granderson, OF, Tigers: Career .272/.344/.484 hitter, can swipe a base, terrific makeup. Be interesting to see how he does in New York.
48) Justin Huber, C, Royals: Lost much of his luster when he moved to 1B, injuries also seemed to slow down his bat, and the opportunity to play vanished.
49) Russ Adams, SS, Blue Jays: Played regularly in 2005 but didn't thrive, has bounced between Triple-A and the majors since then, career .247/.313/.372 hitter.
50) Reid Brignac, SS, Rays: Still waiting for a chance. Bat has gotten worse, glove much better.
It will be another three years before we can judge the list completely. There are a lot of good players on this list, and there are still several players that we don't have enough information about yet, but I'm not happy with the top ten at all.
Although both are still young enough to carve out a career, Marte and Guzman were huge busts as top prospects. Marte just stopped developing, while Guzman's problems with plate discipline overrode his age-relative-to-league. Stewart and Young have significant flaws, though both are still young and have a chance to be very good. Same with Barton. Kotchman has been eaten up by injuries and lack of power development, McPherson by injuries and too many whiffs. Quentin has been really good when healthy but can't stay that way. Reed was just a bad call. The only unqualified success has been Fielder.
In contrast, picks 11-20 have just one guy (Nelson) who looks like a bust, and even he is young enough to still turn things around.
57 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
I love looking back at old prospect lists.
They should serve as a warning to those who don’t understand that prospects carry enormous risk. There’s 1.5 guys in the top ten that you’d be happy to have on your team.
1.5?
Fielder and Quentin should be no-brainers, and Stewart should be pretty close to that as well.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Jan 25, 2010 3:53 PM EST up reply actions
Quentin was my .5
Yeah, I guess he’s a no-brainer for the future, but a 27-year-old former top prospect with only one season above 1.2 wins is a somewhat disappointing return.
But to the point that you wouldn't be happy to have him on your team?
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Jan 25, 2010 4:30 PM EST up reply actions
Yup. Add to that the fact that the best players on this list are #17, #19, and #42, and it only further reinforces that this is an inexact science.
41?
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Jan 25, 2010 8:17 PM EST up reply actions
I wouldn't want 41 in my lineup. Ever.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Jan 26, 2010 4:18 AM EST up reply actions
But he gets RBI'ZZZ
RBI’ZZZ get RINGZZZZ
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Jan 26, 2010 9:39 AM EST up reply actions
Andy Marte just weird
His production and value was largely built around his elite plate discipline. He walked 14% for a whole season at AAA, not the low minors, but at AAA. But, as soon as he stopped drawing walks (when Cleveland got their hands on him), his value dropped like a stone, because he was never going to be a high average hitter (never hit above .285 in any minor league season). But why did the walk rate drop that much in such a young player who had achieved it at such a high level (and it went from elite to poor overnight, and then later to horrendous)? Injury? Yips (like marginal stuff command pitchers who get pounded in MLB and then can’t throw strikes even in the minors)? Poor coaching? Does the fact that he never hit for a high average point to lack of bat speed? Guy is just an enigma.
by AgitationStation on Jan 25, 2010 4:01 PM EST reply actions
IIRC, last year he was great in AAA
I’m very curious to see what he does this year (assuming he’ll be in the majors)
.963 OPS in 82 G at AAA in 2009
.327/.369/.593 in AAA, but .232/.293/.400 in 175 PA in the majors, virtually identical to his disappointing 2006 with the Indians.
Who knows?
http://www.chop-n-change.com
by alexwithclass on Jan 25, 2010 6:46 PM EST up reply actions
Marte is a lot like Kotchman in a lot of ways...
And similar results. No real explanation for their struggles. Not horrible plate discipline, not horrible contact rates. In Marte’s case, his BABIPs have been hideous, and god damn does that boy put the ball in the air a lot.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Jan 25, 2010 6:55 PM EST up reply actions
I have to admit I was surprised
He never hit for a high average in the minors, but the good plate discipline, drop in strikeout rates in his first year at AAA and developing power made me think that he was going to have a year where he just completely broke out and transition from there into a good major league career.
In retrospect, his contact rate was never quite as good as one would have hoped for, although he did show some ability to make adjustments . . .maybe he got pushed too quickly? It would have been interesting to see what would have happened if the Braves had slowed down his development path a bit. As it was, he wasn’t nearly ready for the majors at age 21 and he never really recovered from that experience.
I could see a performance spike in the next two years to get him into the majors as a power hitting regular somewhere on the field through his early 30s, although I suspect he is not going to age well.
I remember really liking Jeremy Reed
Lots of cautionary tales on there. Remember this when pencilling in your team’s “2013 lineup”
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
11-20 > 1-10
And it seems by a large amount of value.
The Dodgers won't win a playoff series until the Cool-a-Coo returns.
It's an obvious cherry pick but...
34-43 are not quite as strong as 11-20 but are in the conversation with Votto, Kinsler, Kendrick, McCann, and Butler and a couple of league average players in Garko and Frenchy.
by two fishsticks on Jan 25, 2010 4:44 PM EST up reply actions
39, 42, 47...
These three would have to be top ten in a re-ranking.
and 34
I suppose I'm cast as the darkness, because I comprehended their light not at all; at least not in the way they wanted me to.
by Pops Daniels on Jan 26, 2010 9:27 AM EST up reply actions
matt kemp?
did he lose eligibility? is that why he wasnt on this list?
kemp
Kemp was rated a C+ “with a high ceiling”. He was just in the Sally League in ’04.
by John Sickels on Jan 25, 2010 4:55 PM EST up reply actions
did you not have a lot of faith in Kemp John?
Looking back at some old lists, he seemed to be pretty low. If I remember, he was 14th on the 06 list.
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2006/7/14/195549/072
This is the link of the updated list(~1/2 through the year). Curious if it was because he was an athlete and not specifically a baseball player or some other reason…
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Jan 25, 2010 5:59 PM EST up reply actions
kemp
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/3/20/306903/not-a-rookie-matt-kemp
That’s a retrospective on Kemp I wrote a couple of years ago that explains how he was graded.
by John Sickels on Jan 25, 2010 6:38 PM EST up reply actions
thanks for finding that
I would have never found it by myself. It basically sounds like you saw the potential, but were careful because of strike zone judgment. Fair analysis?
Luckily, he has continued to improve each year and is now considered one of the best CFs in the game… at 25. Wow. I think it is safe to say the sky is the limit with Kemp
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Jan 25, 2010 6:46 PM EST up reply actions
fair
yeah, that’s fair. His potential was excellent, but his plate discipline was an issue, and MOST players with that combination don’t pan out well. In Kemp’s case, he made the necessary adjustments.
by John Sickels on Jan 26, 2010 10:51 AM EST up reply actions
Hanley Ramirez's defense
Just wondering if anyone can offer a defensive scouting report on Hanley Ramirez, most importantly the change between his ’08 and ’09 production. He made 10 errors in ’09, a vast improvement from the 22 errors he made in ’08. However, his other defensive metrics were much poorer in ’09. Any Marlins fans or NL East fans who have watched him play over the past two years?
He made less errors....
because he got to less balls giving him less opportunities to make bad plays.
I love these "accountable lists"
thanks for doing these types of lists John!
Looks like 2005 wasn’t so bad, aside from 1 &2 top prospects a lot of these hitters turned out pretty good I’d say…
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
Ramirez
his defense has indeed improved stick rat, as an NL east follower I’d say he’s at least improved to near Gold Glove category. He still makes dumb plays, but every player does that.
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
near gold glove?
He’s improved, yes, and he’s worked hard on his fielding, but IMHO there’s no way he’s near gold glove.
HAHA
is that a joke? Near gold glove category? He is barely plausible and he isn’t even the 3rd best SS in his own division. I would easily take Reyes, Rollins, and Escobar over him defensively. He is close with Escobar, but Escobar still gets the edge.
Scanning the BA Top 100 from 2005, it looks like JJ Hardy is the best player listed
there and not listed here (except Mauer). They also had Felix Pie and Lastings Milledge.
But baseball! Fuck yeah! -- lynnzgal
Don't surprised if Stewart breaks out soon
He brought his BB rate up and K rate down last year, while displaying premium power. His problem, along with Iannetta, are that they try to hit hoe runs with every swing, though they showed signs of breaking that at the end of last year. Signing Giambi, a player who balanced power and contact very well through his prime, along with having Helton on the team can definitely bring their strikeout flaws down somewhat. Also, Stewart’s WAR is skewed a bit by the experiment at second with him, otherwise he’s a plus defensive third basemen with lots of power. He’s definitely a breakout candidate next year IMO.
Impossible not to have positive thoughts.
I want Sam Deduno to pitch already.
Poor guy I sure hope he doesn’t break out soon. Acne is a terrible thing….. Bad for self-confidence.
by Alex Trebek on Jan 25, 2010 10:30 PM EST up reply actions
I like him a lot too
But he’s a great example of why pro teams as well as fans need to have patience above all else with a talented player. Remember that he was a grade A prospect . . .in 2005! It’s 2010 and it’s only just now that Stewart is establishing himself as a major league player.
I try an' hit hoe runs with every swing too...
…Pimpin ain’t easy.
"So you think 25 percent of the country is retarded?! Yea. Atleast 25 percent. Well lets so a sample. There are 4 of us an you're retarded. Thats 25 percent." Southpark; Mystery of the Urinal Deuce
by gorillakilla34 on Jan 28, 2010 2:20 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
top 10 shaky
but 10 damn good hitters out of fifty. i will take those odds.
I'm assuming Number 46 Herman Iribarren is a misprint
Both on the name (he doesn’t show up on the Cube) and on the .471 career OBP.
Do you feel like your lists get better with experience?
Or do you think so much of it is “luck of the draw” sort of thing that there’s only so much you can predict?
Flash-forward to 2015:
Do you think the 2010 list holds up better? Have their been changes in your approach that might influence this?
Question for John
Any recollection why Joe Mauer wasn’t listed? Because he missed the full year with injury?
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
mauer
Because I didn’t consider him a prospect any more, although he was technically still a rookie.
I have since changed my policy and just go with the playing time limits.
by John Sickels on Jan 26, 2010 8:56 PM EST up reply actions
Funny how it goes back
If anyone’s interested, here was my list in 2005:
http://brickhaus.blogspot.com/2005_02_01_archive.html
Some hits and misses, just like everyone else I suppose. I had a different way of doing it, where I pretty much weighed statistics 40%, scouting reports 40% and ARL 20%. Ended up with this top 10:
1) Felix Hernandez
2) Delmon Young
3) Ian Stewart
4) Prince Fielder
5) Joe Mauer
6) Adam Miller
7) Jesse Crain
8) Ande Marte
9) Jeff Francis
10) Jeremy Reed
On the bright side, I had Ryan Howard ranked higher than just about anyone else.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
And I had Pedroia at 22
Barely anyone else had him in their top 100.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Minor League Ball
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
