Enigma Prospects
I'm thinking about doing a piece on Enigma Prospects, guys who are just weird for one reason or another. I'm thinking of people like Deolis Guerra, for example, or maybe Donald Veal. Eric Hosmer. Carlos Triunfel. Guys who have talent, but with bad numbers in '09 and some significant questions entering 2010 that we need to track.
The idea is to have an "Enigma Tracking List" of maybe 20 guys that we can analyze and revisit as the 2010 season progresses.
It is kind of a vague idea I guess, but I'm interested who you might nominate for such a list. What do you think and who would you suggest?
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thats not a fair assesment
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Carlos Triunfel, Greg Halman.
I’m convinced Triunfel has a good major league career ahead of him, but I’m totally down on Halman.
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by cwhitman412 on Jan 20, 2010 10:51 PM EST up reply actions
Me thinks
I don’t think there’s alot of guys we can put into this category.
I don't know
I just define enigma as someone who has been around for awhile but hasn’t lived up to the billing.
Bumgarner
I suppose he could be considered an enigma, given the spirited debates that have raged here over his strikeouts and velocity
Tim Beckham
Pretty big questions now regarding his athleticism, ability to stick at SS, and hit/power tools
these three best fit the bill i think
T Beckham, Bumgarner, and Ynoa. [ynoa is quite literally an enigma]
I agree on Johnson. Have heard reports he is working his butt off this offseason to put the ball in play more often, and if he can cut down the K’s he is going to something special.
if...
he cuts his strikeout total to only 15% of at bats, you’re probably looking at a top-20 prospect in all of baseball. kid’s got some serious power.
by apoxonbothyourhouses on Jan 21, 2010 1:00 AM EST up reply actions
Justin Jackson
talent is there, has yet to show any results.
How Bout All Three Of The Jays 1R that Year.
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+2 Arencibia
Also: Jaime Garcia, Matt Antonelli…
+1 Desme
"Life is a horizontal fall" -Jean Cocteau
by King Richard on Jan 20, 2010 10:03 PM EST up reply actions
Joining the priesthood?
I’m gonna go ahead and say that makes Desme an enigma.
oops rrg
meant to post, what about Fernando Martinez? [overhyped NY prospect, or the next Alex Escobar, or something good?] Or how about Tim Alderson?
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
eh
he had a pretty awesome year last year in the minors. struggled at 20 in his major league debut. had injury problems. pretty straightforward to me at least. he’s performing quite well for his age at every level, but getting hurt.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 20, 2010 6:48 PM EST up reply actions
in a lot of ways
most mets prospects are enigmas – they get rushed so fast, and a guy like martinez has had good partial seasons in 2005 and 2009, but both were shortened by injury. it’s such a tough system to grade, because for a lot of guys their greatest virtue is ARL, not actual performance – f-mart (until last year), mejia, holt, tejeda, flores, marte, it’s quite a list.
Huh?
Holt is a guy who looked good due to ARL? Mejia’s 1.13 WHIP in the FSL didn’t look good? Tejada didn’t have a solid year? I agree that guys like Flores, Marte, and pre-2009 Fernando look better due to ARL, but it definitely doesn’t apply to everyone you’re talking about.
You're right
Holt’s confusing not due to ARL but because his numbers collapsed in AA. And Tejeda, again, more refers to in the past (08 when he hit 229/293/296, but as an 18 yr old in A+). And you’re right on Mejia. But I don’t think it’s very controversial to say that the Mets rush their prospects generally, especially the international ones (they are the ones who created Deolis War, too, who John mentioned above). So not all the names apply to that reasoning, but it’s a general issue with the system.
not a prospect
but ian kennedy is a good example of an enigma, dominates every level at the minors but has struggled in his 59 innings in the majors spread across the last three years
it's not
quiet that much of a enigma, it’s what happens when extremely polished college pitcher with somewhat below average stuff meets the AL east.
by RollingWave on Jan 20, 2010 10:05 PM EST up reply actions
maybe it is
but i find it weird that he doesn’t have more success with minor league stats like he has
Jeremy Sowers
has followed the same career path as Kennedy.
And Sowers even had better control than "fake" control artist Kennedy
2.2 BB/9 to 2.8
The hype machine painted Kennedy as a pinpoint control pitcher whose pitchability, control and command would overcome his lack of anything resembling an out pitch. Kennedy was often compared to guys like Kevin Slowey. His stuff IS better than Slowey’s… but not by a whole lot – while his control is considerably worse.
He never should have been ranked that high is the bottom line, IMO. I do not believe in AAAA players, but Kennedy is the closest example I can think of. He has enough control and enough stuff to dominate minor leaguers consistently, but major leaguers (with a better approach than MiLBers, and more easily able to punish mistakes) will hit him pretty well. I think he can be a consistent back end type, and if he improves his control he could end up a very good #4 kind of guy for Arizona. The NL is a good fit for him.
59 innings is not enough to say anything definite about Kennedy
Especially when the first 19 weren’t terrible (15 K, 9BB, 1.89 ERA). I think he’s massively underrated, and could easily be an above-average starter.
by yellomellojello on Jan 21, 2010 3:12 PM EST up reply actions
well ...
Kyle Skipworth
Austin Jackson
Ben Revere
Michael Burgess
not as bad #’s, but might also apply:
Josh Vitters
Trevor Reckling (results were good, peripherals not so much)
Juan Francisco
Carlos Carrasco
Andrew Brackman
Terrible season last year, but maybe he could be better this year, as he’s another year removed from TJ. Tons of talent and athleticism, but lacks experience and results.
http://www.theyankeeu.com
Nelson
I still have a good intuitive feeling about Nelson.
by NMUWildcat027 on Jan 20, 2010 8:49 PM EST up reply actions
Neil Ramirez
He’s an interesting grab-bag
Look at the comments under Jeff Wilson's blog post on dallasnews.com. What a bunch of rocket scientists.- Keith Law
Curse your sudden but inevitable betrayal!
by Keynes on Jan 20, 2010 7:51 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Doesn't seem like much mystery
his control has been awful for the most part.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
Michael Main
tons of talent…it just seems like it’s one thing after another.
"The mystery of the beginning of all things is insoluble by us; and I for one must be content to remain an agnostic" - Charles Darwin, you know who he is...
Mejia would be a good one
Is he the prospect that dominated the Florida State League or the prospect who struggled with his control in AA and the AFL.
a few
Dellin Betances (see how he responds after TJ)
Michael Burgess
Philippe Aumont (looks like he could be a dominant reliever, but I think it will be interesting to see what the Phils do with him this season)
Neil Walker
jay austin?
he had a rough first year, and a pretty nice follow up year. he is very young and is developing in a somewhat typical way, no?
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 20, 2010 8:49 PM EST up reply actions
+1 on Cain
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
I think Bumgarner, Ynoa, Johnson, Beckham, Moustakas are all good options. Mejia doesn’t seem to fit the bill to me, if he is in than someone like Drabek should be in. Maybe Wilmer Flores perhaps but he hasn’t done anything yet. Dewey would probably like to see Thole. :D
Sergio Santos is an interesting guy, moved to the mound after failing as a hitter. Those guys are always interesting, has some sick velocity.
Will Inman has always been a bit of a controversial prospect with his odd delivery but decent results until late.
Antonelli? Revere? Wood? Walden? Hewitt? Possibilities are endless. I think if John sleeps on it and gives us a better idea of what he is looking for we should be able to get 20+ names easily enough.
ugh...
i think this is the last year for Cole to prove that he’s capable.
by apoxonbothyourhouses on Jan 21, 2010 1:00 AM EST up reply actions
FDLS
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Henry Rodriguez
?
"Ninety percent I'll spend on good times, women and Irish Whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
Matt Antonelli
Once the top 2nd base prospect in baseball. Now an afterthought.
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This is who I was going to say.
Also, Homer Bailey, Luke Hochevar and Tim Alderson (see Bumgarner’s velocity loss)
by The Gottfather on Jan 20, 2010 10:47 PM EST up reply actions
Maybe for a few starts at the end of last season
But before that he would chew up AAA and then get totally bombed in the majors.
by The Gottfather on Jan 21, 2010 10:28 AM EST up reply actions
thinking
thinking out lout here, i’m thinking that injury guys are not really what i’m looking for….though Triunfel could be an exception.
Kenley Janson
Moved from catcher to pitcher and has a laser fastball. I think a lot of people will be watching him.
Another one could be Tony delcamino(I spelled his name wrong, I’m sure, but can’t look it up on an Ipod…) anyways, he is a guy who switched positions (2b to C) and has a shot to be really good if he learns how to call a game
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Jan 20, 2010 10:57 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Two guys from the Mets 2007 draft: Brant Rustich and Nate Vineyard
Supposedly Vineyard’s out of baseball, but no one seems to no for sure. Both of these guys looked like the two to potentially make up for the disaster that was/is Eddie Kunz.
As for Rustich, he’s effective when he pitches, but every time he stretches out to start games he gets hurt. He needs to be moved to the bullpen ASAP, but he has one of the best arsenals in the Mets system. Sleeper to be a really fast moving reliever who could help the major league club ASAP if he stays healthy?
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Jan 20, 2010 11:21 PM EST reply actions
Some Names......
Adam Miller, Jeremy Jeffress, Jefry Marte, Dan Cortes, Billy Rowell, Cale Iorg
As for recent ML graduates, if you ever went that route in the future, Cameron Maybin, Brandon Wood, Alex Gordon, and Gio Gonzalez might be good candidates.
2010 Tigers deadweight contracts coming off the books:
Maggs (18M)
Willis (12M)
Bonderman (12.5M)
Robertson (10M)
2011 is the year of the Tiger!
I'd add.....
Wes Hodges and Joel Guzman as well…..
2010 Tigers deadweight contracts coming off the books:
Maggs (18M)
Willis (12M)
Bonderman (12.5M)
Robertson (10M)
2011 is the year of the Tiger!
by sportznut3081 on Jan 20, 2010 11:28 PM EST up reply actions
Jeffress is a good one.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
Perhaps somebody like...
Jon Bachanov…..
I’m interested in seeing how he advances and starts to add innings to his appearances.
Alex Gordon
I know he is no longer a prospect, but he was crazy hype in the minors and still hasn’t put together a solid season. Is this the year??
PPPPPPUNTO 4 MVP 2010
I think this is the year he does well enough people get off his case.
I see him settling in as an above average 3B.
Im really pessimistic he’ll come close to living up to his hype as a prospect, though. Most disappointing to me is his defense.
how can you get a read on his defense?
iirc, 1 above average year and 1 below (per the metrics, which i still don’t buy totally). last year he was injured, so i’ll give him a free pass.
baseball rules.
I havent closed the book on his defense
but the metrics havent looked great the last two years and I was under the impression the scouting reports weren’t great either, no?
i don't know what the scouting reports are saying
royals fans are generally considering his defense average or so, which i think is right. fair or not, were giving him a pass this year after coming back from hip surgery.
baseball rules.
No, I think average is about right.
I guess we’re not disagreeing on that…
I was under the impression he would be better than that – both as a prospect and following his rookie season.
Steve Pearce
Came up, got a few at bats, went down, came up, got a few at bats, might not make the team. How come?
Austin Jackson
You feel good about him with no reason… that’s unusual…
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
Jon Gaston or Koby Clemens
A couple of Lancaster stand-outs who led the minors in offensive categories this past season. Clemens also has the added distinction of lacking a position.
i think he is looking
for players that underperformed, not ones that potentially overperformed. especially not ones whose main source of overperformance was playing in a big hitters park. i’m interested in both guys, mainly gaston, but i don’t think this is the group they belong in.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 21, 2010 7:49 AM EST up reply actions
clemens maybe
but i don’t think it is what he was asking for.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 21, 2010 11:50 AM EST up reply actions
Definition of enigma
C’mon, people… an enigma is a puzzle, or a riddle, or a head-scratcher, and when referring to athletes it almost always has a mildly negative connotation (the tools are definitely there, but he just can’t seem to get it together, or he does it occasionally but not nearly often enough, and the key is that we don’t know exactly why). And John specifically said in his opener that he was referring to guys with BAD 2009 seasons. To my mind Joel Guzman, Andy Marte, Alex Gordon, Delmon Young, Austin Kearns, Daniel Cabrera, Fausto Carmona, Radhames Liz, Merkin Valdez and Jeremy Hermida are enigmas… Carlos Pena was an enigma for several years before landing in TB… but Bumgarner? The guy is at or near the top of everyone’s list of SF prospects and also in the overall pitcher top prospects lists… that he lost some velocity is a question to be aware of, but that isn’t an enigma to my way of thinking… an enigma is way bigger than that. And suggesting people who had stellar seasons, like Gaston or Clemens, is not exactly following the leader’s directive. I know, most of the guys I quote as enigmas are way past prospect status, but I’m using them as large examples of the kind of thing I believe John is looking for here. I guess the other thing that needs to be emphasized is the part about “we don’t know why”. Some of these guys who are enigmas to me as only a semi-knowledgable follower might be totally clear and understandable to most others who are closer to the game, in which case they are not really enigmas to anyone else, and that type of guy doesn’t belong on John’s list… we as a group have to be very puzzled as to why, or else the player is not an enigma.
by JRTwins on Jan 21, 2010 3:12 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
+1 for Hermida
And just a generally good description of the point of the thread.
I like to think of an enigma as someone whose
performance is completely unexplained and that the baseball world totally misappraised.
I would like to nominate Conor Gillaspie for that honor. Many scouts and baseball people thought some rather obvious defiencies in fielding and power production would change in time. Boy, did they blow it! What did they miss?
Shooter Hunt
I’m not sure how it is no one has brought him up. Horrible 2009 season. Awesome stuff. Something mental that keeps him from throwing strikes.
by diehardtwinsfan on Jan 21, 2010 8:57 AM EST reply actions
Also agree, though he had some control concerns in college, too. Shocked that he hasn’t been mentioned yet.
+1
How do I tell my kid brother about Desmond Jennings? (he loves the Rays)
"He's a cross between Carl Crawford and Justin Upton with B.J. Upton's upside"
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jan 21, 2010 5:57 PM EST up reply actions
Michael Main or Blake Beavan
"JD gets complete blame or credit for what happens in 2010 and I think Nolan wants it that way. JD is paid to be a real GM and needs to start performing like one." - Josey Wales
How about a previous engma that turned around?
I’m thinking about Ricky Romero here.
He befuddled all comers for a few years until he was promoted to AAA and then the majors, where he inconceivably became useful and shrugged off the “bust” label.
If you don;t want to go that route, I would give a few more Jays’ examples – Arencipia (as already noted above), David Cooper and/or David Purcey ( I think he lost his eligibility though).
Thanks
by ofsticksandbats on Jan 21, 2010 11:41 AM EST reply actions
What about Neil Walker from the Pirates farm system
Players who should be in the Hall of Fame: DIck Lebeau, Pat TIllman, Dwight White, Donnie Shell, L.C. Greenwood, Ray Guy, Steve Tasker, Greg Llyod, Andy Russel, Cris Carter, Kevin Greene and Jerry Kramer
"If you give Arians a fullback, he won’t use one. Instead, he insists on using Matt Spaeth, who probably doesn’t cast a shadow because it would require blocking sunlight." steelin with some very true words
Most of these guys aren't enigmatic
Guys with great tools who don’t put it together aren’t enigmas. They’re just tools goofs, as Sickels would call them. Guys who get injured aren’t enigmatic either. Same with guys who get drafted high, but aren’t very good. Jordan Danks isn’t enigmatic. He’s a high risk player with great tools and questionable skills who looks great in a uniform. Fautino De Los Santos isn’t enigmatic. He got hurt. Neil Walker isn’t enigmatic. He’s mediocre.
Pat Venditte
I think he is a good example of an enigma and is completely different from everyone else listed. He does put up good numbers though. Still an interesting prospect to me being able to pitch with both hands.
by forloveofthegam3 on Jan 21, 2010 3:06 PM EST reply actions
Jose Tabata
If only because this dude is 21 years old and married to some crazy woman that’s 23 years his senior.
Matt Antonelli
Strikeouts didn’t seem all that different, was one of the top 2B prospects around pre-2008. What happened to that swing?
Jeff Samardizja
Not sure if he still qualifies as a prospect, but he’s definitely an enigma. He has big time velocity and good stuff, but he gives up significantly more contact than is to be expected. Is he a starter? A reliever? Where are the strikeouts?

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