Known Grade Changes: Hitters
by John Sickels on Jan 18, 2010 1:20 PM EST
77 comments
Here are some known grade changes for hitters. As with the pitchers, this is a result of working on the 50/50 list where I slot players compared to others in different organizations.
UPDATED 4:40 PM MONDAY
Michael Brantley, OF, Cleveland Indians: Old grade was B-, he is being UPGRADED to Grade B because I want him to be a candidate for the Top 50. He is at the bottom of the top 50.
Michael Saunders, OF, Seattle Mariners: Old grade was B-, he is being UPGRADED to Grade B because I want him to be a candidate for the Top 50. He ended up about the middle of the top 50.
Jeff Kobernus, 2B, Washington Nationals: Old grade was B-, he is being DOWNGRADED to Grade C+ because the first grade was simply a bit too aggressive and he fits better with the other C+s.
Josh Vitters, 3B, Chicago Cubs. Old grade was B+, he has been DOWNGRADED to Grade B. I knew I wanted him on the Top 50 and that he would be right next to Matt Dominguez. They both have flaws, they both have strengths, they are within one day of the same age, but ultimately I decided that I liked Dominguez slightly better because he'll stay at third base long-term and Vitters might not. If I had Dominguez as a B, Vitters couldn't be a B+, and I wasn't going to promote Dominguez. They are right next to each other on the Top 50.
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Suprised Josh Bell didn't get an upgrade
Thought it would happen, but I respect the opinion and recognize a straight B is nothing to laugh at.
Agreed.
He and Britton both deserve a B+.
by Franchise887 on Jan 18, 2010 3:12 PM EST up reply actions
hitters
Hitting list is imcomplete. I’m weighing the merits of Vitters (possible downgrade) and Bell (possible upgrade) but no decision has been made.
by John Sickels on Jan 18, 2010 3:38 PM EST up reply actions
b
He’s staying a B. However he is part of the reason Vitters may get demoted.
by John Sickels on Jan 18, 2010 3:57 PM EST up reply actions
That's fair
I just didn’t like the idea of Vitters getting a higher grade.
Wilson Ramos a B ?
How do I tell my kid brother about Desmond Jennings? (he loves the Rays)
"He's a cross between Carl Crawford and Justin Upton with B.J. Upton's upside"
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jan 18, 2010 7:05 PM EST up reply actions
Why Bell shoud get a B-
Look the guy has good potential to be a platoon partner right now. When & if he should either learn to hit lefties from the right side of the plate or dumps the switch hitting thing all together he’s an incomplete hitter, END OF STORY!
no
Bell deserves a B, even if he can’t hit lefties, it’s not that a trait that is that awful. Ryan Howard can’t hit lefties either, but he’s still a top-10 hitter in the game. Adrian Gonzalez, Adam Lind, Andre Ethier, Curtis Granderson, and plenty of other hitters struggle against lefties, but they still are tremendously valuable hitters. Bell still has time to figure it out, and if he does that, I’ll be pushing hard for an A- grade, for now, a B or B+ is fair.
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
What about Darnell?
Really don’t understand why he isn’t B+
"Chicks dig the long ball, although fat chicks will settle for warning track power" - Nick Diamond
I agree on this
a lower end B+, but he has above average power and plate discipline, with, at worst, average contact and baserunning, and he should be around average at 3B, I really like him. The decrease in BB% as he went up a level is a possible concern, but 80+ walks in about 500 PA is, to me, an indication of good plate discipline to come.
Darnell’s not a B+ prospect. He played half his year against folks he was way older than and he’s not exactly a strong defender at 3B. Watching video of him has suggest to me he’s a bit more maxed out athletically than I had previously thought. I’d have him behind Josh Bell by 10-15 spots on any top 100 list.
Re: Brantley. Whoops!
Re: Dominguez. Matt Dominguez should be a B+. He was a B+ last year and nothing about his performance suggests he was worth downgrading.You are correct that he’s a better prospect than Vitters, IMO, but I think it’s more pronounced than the same given level/willingness to take walk/defense.
FWIW John, I think this is a good call.
Too many people, myself included have used his lack of power as an excuse to ignore some pretty significant gifts. I still believe power wins out and Weglarz earns the starting job in a year but that doesn’t make Brantley less of a ballplayer, just a hell of a 4th OF.
I agree with this
But I totally understand the hesitation. Need to see if he’s going to hit at AA . . .could see him being anywhere from a top 15-20 prospect to totally off the board next year.
For me, though . . .numbers are good, draws walks, scouts like him, I’m buying in.
I think Espinosa is clearly behind Mier
And he only got a B. Espinosa is probably behind Hak-Ju Lee who got a B as well. I think the aggressive rankings of Dee Gordon and Grant Green (both B+) is throwing people off maybe. I definitely think Mier is ahead of Green and Gordon (and also Espinosa and Lee), but maybe they all should be Bs, not B+. Not sure.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 18, 2010 8:18 PM EST up reply actions
yawn
Your endless shilling of Mier as the top SS prospect in the game after a good rookie ball campaign got tiresome long ago. He may well be by this time next year, but there is NOBODY else who shares that opinion. It’s not even a “well, you can make a case”. You really can’t right now.
I really don’t get the reason for the blatant homer attitude, but keep spewing this line, man.
well, Escobar is the top SS prospect and I think he agrees with that much
and I could definatley see an argument for Mier being number two. Above average defense at a premium position with a more complete skillset than any of the other players outside of maybe Green (who I have ahead of him) makes him a very very good prospect.
but you see
You say “more complete skillset” . . .and you’re basing this on rookie ball statistics. I know you’re doing this, because the scouting reports on him before the draft were very skeptical about his ability to hit. John said exactly the same thing before the draft (and yeah, I’ll admit to being a little surprised that he was swayed so much by the numbers, too). If Mier can do this in full-season ball, then I’ll feel more strongly about substantially revising his offensive projection.
I’ll agree with John on the point that Mier COULD be a top 20 prospect by this time next year . . .but that would mean he duplicates his rookie ball performance, which I honestly don’t think he’s going to do.
but of course
John thinks he is borderline B+ now. He is clearly being conservative with that grade, which is fine. I have no problem with that. Puts him in John’s top 50 overall probably, since he said he’d consider Brantley and Saunders for the top 50 when he moved them up to Bs (saying they in no way look like B+s to him). You are all alone thinking Mier isn’t very good. You were overly swayed by John’s assessment of his high school bat, and John has to a great degree changed his mind after seeing substantially more of him.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 19, 2010 5:37 PM EST up reply actions
many other scouts
thought he had a real nice bat coming out of high school. it isn’t like his performance last season was highly unexpected.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 19, 2010 5:38 PM EST up reply actions
plus
i never said he was the top SS in the game. i said #3 ahead of grant green and dee gordon. that is largely because i have little faith in those 2. i see Mier (pretty much) the way john does and lots of others. i’d be slightly more aggressive and give him the B+ or maybe keep him as a “B borderline B+” and downgrade gordon and green to Bs. i have a pretty near consensus view. there are plenty of astros rankings have mier ahead of either lyles or castro or both.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 19, 2010 5:42 PM EST up reply actions
I'm not so sure
Of course he is a very long way away, but that rookie ball campaign wasn’t just good – it was outstanding. He showed excellent power, excellent walking ability, excellent speed, and didn’t even strike out too much. Considering he is also a good defense SS, he seems like a potentially (emphasis on that word) outstanding prospect. I happen not to love any of the minor league SS, so I can imagine choosing him above all the others – though I certainly understand why almost nobody would agree with me. I like John’s B rating for Mier, and I just want to wait and see
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by OldProspects on Jan 19, 2010 1:28 AM EST up reply actions
John Sickels
Agrees. B borderline B+ could be top 20 overall next season.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 19, 2010 5:34 PM EST up reply actions
Vitters down to a B
Interesting. I can’t say I can find fault in that. It seems like he’s been a top prospect for forever (although it really hasn’t been that long). Soon he’s going to have to start putting up elite numbers if he’s going to retain top prospect status. He’s not a bad prospect and he deserves to be in the your top 50, but I can’t see him as a top tier guy right now. Until he grows (adds more power or more patience) he has to be in the lower end of the 50 hitters.
by nobodyinparticular on Jan 18, 2010 7:41 PM EST reply actions
Vitters is borderline B-
Until this kid starts hitting I just can’t see keeping him in the top fifty, maybe not even in the top one hundred. If this kid is a B then there is no way that Ryan Wheeler is a B-. I’m sorry but Vitters has done absolutely zero as a pro; Wheeler on the other hand has done nothing but show he may well be the steal of the draft for the D-Backs. If Wheeler puts up numbers anything like this past season, he will be one of the top firstbase prospects in all of baseball, #2 behind Smoak assuming his not a major leaguer come 2011 & Alverez remains at third or is a major leaguer.
Did You See Him In A Ball?
He MASHED the first half of the season. If you hadn’t noticed, he was on the BA hotsheet about several weeks in a row in May.
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Even when he was doing "well"
he was doing it in a way that raised serious questions about whether it was sustainable. His patience was so poor that it was a huge red flag even though his surface numbers looked okay.
by alskor on Jan 18, 2010 10:33 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
-1
Vitters’ OPS in A-ball last year was 886. Neither Vitters nor Dominguez did well in high A (and the less said about Dominguez in AA, the better.) I think they’re pretty close as prospects, but to say Vitters hasn’t hit is nuts.
Also don’t get John’s comment on sticking at 3b—I had heard the Cubs were pretty pleased with Vitters’ progress on defense, though he’s no Rolen. Dominguez is definitely smooth, but his range is not anything to write home about. I didn’t think that would be so much of a distinguishing factor.
And for goodness sake, don’t move Bell up to a B+ if you’re keeping Vitters and Dominguez at a B!
by PrincetonCubs on Jan 19, 2010 1:04 AM EST up reply actions
Dominguez did quite well in the FSL. He improved his walk rate and K rate, while showing good power for the league. Dominguez’s FSL OPS was .753; Vitters’s was .604.
I think Dominguez is clearly the better prospect.
he struggled to hit 260
and his K rate improvement was marginal. I’m not saying he isn’t one level further along the curve than Vitters, but he is definitely not clearly the better prospect. His power tool is established, but his contact skills look marginal to me so far. That’s far more concerning in my book than Vitters’ inability to take a walk. but ymmv
by PrincetonCubs on Jan 19, 2010 4:58 PM EST up reply actions
like I said
ymmv. for me, I think discipline is much easier learned than the ability to hit for contact.
by PrincetonCubs on Jan 19, 2010 9:09 PM EST up reply actions
I'm still not sure what you mean here
Dominguez doesn’t have a glaringly high K rate.
I can only assume that you’re alluding to his average, but that seems like a BABIP issue more than an actual lack of skill.
Whether discipline is more easily learned or not...
The problems of Vitters are on a much larger scale than those of Dominguez, IMHO.
John divides hitters from pitchers
Which means that if Vitters makes the top-50, then he’s really making (sort of) the top-100 of another list
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by OldProspects on Jan 19, 2010 1:23 AM EST up reply actions
ummmmm no
Wheeler is good, but no way he’s the #2 1B prospect in the minors.
As you mentioned, Alvarez should move to 1B to utilize his bat and save wear and tear and his body (ala Pujols). He would be the #2 1B prospect (and depending on who you talk to, the #1).
I like Logan Morrison more than Wheeler, let’s look at some stats.
Morrison 2009 stats at AA as a 22 year old
.277/.411/.854 with an ISO of .165
his A+ as a 21 year old
.332/.402/.896 with an ISO of .162
Ryan Wheeler
as a 21 year old in A- his stats are
.363/.461/.999/ with an iso of .175
looks to me like he was a bit old for his level.
now, let’s look at other top 1B prospects (outside of Morrison and Alvarez who we would both agree. go here: http://phuturephillies.com/2010/01/10/sonar-scores-1b-prospects/
i would say that that list is a bit incomplete (where’s Freeman?). but as for best 1B propsect i would put Wheeler at @3 behind Carter and Morrison and ahead of Freeman. But that’s just me.
by apoxonbothyourhouses on Jan 19, 2010 1:46 AM EST up reply actions
Vitter has done nothing as a pro? Really?
Untill he starts hitting? As an 18 year old in SS-A ball he hit 328/365/498 and as a 19 year old in Low A in a pitchers league he hit 316/351/535 w/ 15 HRs. How is that not hitting? Sure he struggled in his promotion to High A but he also had a miniscule .258 BABIP. Yes he has to work on the PD no doubt about it but he also only K’d 65 times in 458 ABs. Coming into the year scouts were starting to question his power after 25 2b and 5 hr last year and he started answering those questions by turning those 2b into HR (18 HR 19 2b 3 3b). So he’s makng improvements. He’ s still just 20 years old and has shown the ability to make adjustments as a pro. Yeah I’m a Vitters supporter and a Cubs fan but I’m normally very conservative about Cub prospects but I have seen a lot from this kid leading me believe it will all come together. It just amazes me how quick ppl are to write off a guy as soon as he shows the slightest weakness.
can't be too far down on Vitters
About the worst that can be said is that his development track is a little slower than originally anticipated, but the tools and the upside are there.
The guy wasn’t quite ready for full season ball last year but destroyed short season ball. This year, he wasn’t quite ready for High A but ran amok in the Midwest League (never an easy task).
The thing is, I’m sure Vitters himself has heard many criticisms about his plate discipline lately, especially after it proved to be his undoing in the FSL. I’m sure both he and the Cubs recognize that it’s something he really needs to work on. But these things take time. I think he’ll be okay in the long run . . .and I sure hope so, because his swing is just beautiful. His offensive potential is pretty awesome, and I think I like him better than Moustakas.
Vitters doesn't recognize that he needs to work on his plate discipline
http://archives.chicagotribune.com/2009/nov/06/sports/chi-06-cubs-josh-vitters-nov06
Even if the home run numbers increase, don’t expect a similar uptick with his walks. Vitters averages a base on balls every 30 minor league plate appearances, which is offset by his contact rate because he strikes out only once every 6 1/2 at-bats. "I’m not going up there looking for a walk," he said. "If I see a good pitch and I can drive it, I’m going to swing. It’s not a problem at all because I don’t strike out a lot."
Jibs
The guy is 19. At 19 I was a grip it and rip it type also but as I matured and learned some things I learned that being agressive in life is sometimes counter productive. Once I matured and settled down some and got a different perspective on life my outlook changed. Now granted this isn’t true for everyone but he is gonna realize (either on his own or help from the organization) that he is gonna have to learn some patience or flame out. This is why I say patience. The person and attitude he has today as a 19 just turned 20 year old kid could and should very well be very different by the time hes 22-23.
If this is true...
just imagine how much MORE mature all the other prospects who don’t have terrible approaches at the plate are going to get!
Unless you’re implying only Vitters will benefit from aging 3 years and maturing.
There’s a reason guys with this kind of approach rarely succeed.
Ok smartass
Basically what princeton cubs said. Only a handfull of guys (if that many) in the minors can boast a swing and the ability to make such easy contact. You just can’t teach that. Now PD and learning to lay of certain pitches is teachable and that skill can get better w/ expierence. Vitters works hard and wants to succede giving him a well above average chance of learning how to control the stikezone better. Now go take Eric Sogard and his 58 walks and .370 OBP and teach him to swing the bat like Vitters.
I don’t think it’s easy to teach plate discipline at all. I hate Vitters’s approach and I do not like him as a prospect.
And no, I don’t like Eric Sogard either, but give me guys like Aaron Hicks, and to a lesser extent, Jared Mitchell.
I agree 100%
I think its much, MUCH easier to get better at hitting for contact than it is to lay off pitches. I really don’t understand why anyone would think the opposite.
I also think people are ascribing some magical ability to Vitters hit tool… its good, but his approach isnt just bad – its atrocious. It ranks among mankind’s greatest atrocities. The term “crime against nature” is thrown around a lot these days, but in Vitters’s case…
So, anyway, even if Vitters was twice as disciplined as he is now I would still have grave concerns about his ability to hit major league pitching without looking like a chump.
+1
discipline is more likely to come w/ maturity. the innate ability to hit for contact generally does not.
by PrincetonCubs on Jan 19, 2010 9:11 PM EST up reply actions
One could definitely say worse things about Vitters.
I would say that the worse that could be said about Josh Vitters is that he is a poor man’s Jeff Franceour.
by nobodyinparticular on Jan 19, 2010 9:53 PM EST up reply actions
Questions
Vitters has some questions about his game like D but if he can even play a slightly below average D and not kill the team he’ll stay at 3b (which is very reachable). PD is in question but he does not K an onscene amount for a young guy. He’ll never walk a lot but more then walking he just needs to learn to lay off pitchers pitchs which will come w/ more expierence. He’s an aggresive hitter in the Howie Kendrick mold w/ more power.
Now Castro who everyone is so high on has many more questions then Vitters w/o the impact bat. If he fills out and adds power, like many think how much speed and range will he lose? How much power will he really add? His PD is said to be improving but to be able to hit at the top of a ML line up he will have to draw more walks. How good is D really gonna be once he matures physically? Will he eventually have to move to 2B and if so how impact will his bat be there? He only hit 3 HR last year and yes he hit .288 in 111 AA ABs but how much can we really read into that? A late season promotion when young SP are starting to tire and some of the leagues better SP had been promoted. I like Castro and I hope he tirns out to be really good but we have to see how addresses these questions next year.
Bell should be downgraded
Look the guy has good potential to be a platoon partner right now, until he either learns to hit lefties from the right side of the plate or dumps the switch hitting thing all together he’s an incomplete hitter, END OF STORY!
Can I put in a plea for Adrian Cardenas?
Here’s what I wrote in the A’s-related fanpost:
I think you’re giving too little credence to his age (21 all last season) and too much to his perceived lack of power. Given his line drive, all fields swing, and the fact that he’s not considered "weak" — just not "a power guy" — it’s pretty likely that Cardenas will hit plenty of doubles.
Combine that with a potential .300 BA (which gives him a .040 head start on slugging over a .260 hitter), and good plate discipline, and I don’t see why he wouldn’t project to hit as well as, say, .300/.360/.440, no matter what his HR totals look like.
On Athletics Nation, I think an excellent comp was suggested and it’s not Placido Polanco (who is a better defensive player and has less power), or Todd Walker (worse fielder than I expect Cardenas to be), but rather Bill Mueller. A guy with a .300 bat, good plate discipline, enough power to slug decently without a ton of HRs, who played a solid-if-not-spectacular 3B/2B, and finished with a career OPS of .797.
Cardenas put up this line in 2009 in two AAA stints:
.175/.246/.263 in the first stint in May
.304/.364/.439 in the second stint in August/Sept
The first stint, he did poorly while being young for his league. The second stint, he did very well while being young for his league.
Seems to me that Cardenas is still a solid "B" at lowest — the guy has just turned 22 and is almost a lock to make it to the big leagues with a chance to prove himself as an every day starter.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jan 18, 2010 8:13 PM EST reply actions 6 recs
I like the Frank Catalanotto comp that's gone around, personally
Yes, I’m aware that Cat took a while to get going . . .but guy played all over the field during his career with a .292/.358/.446 line. That sounds like a very real possibiliy for Cardenas.
Of course, Cat was also a very underappreciated journeyman.
Other than position, that's a great comp.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
position?
Cat was developed as a 2B and played there in the majors, also played some corner outfield, a little 3B, even some 1B.
That matches up pretty well with where Cardenas has been and where he projects to go in the future, doesn’t it?
Kind of
Cardenas projects to be a 2B/3B — I haven’t ever heard anything about COF or 1B.
Maybe now Cardenas will be groomed more for 2B, which will parallel Cat a little more closely; until the Kouzmanoff trade, he was ticketed for 3B in Sacramento this year.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
stuff happens
He projects to play at one of those positions, but if you found a couple of guys who could play those positions better than him, you wouldn’t hesitate to move him.
He probably wouldn’t play corner outfield in Oakland, but that’s more the result of the A’s having too many OFs as is. If that wasn’t the case, you’d notice Kouzmanoff over at 3B and Jemile Weeks coming up fast . . .and you’d say, between Weeks and Cardenas, which one has a bat that would look better in an OF corner . . .and you’d find Cardenas in the outfield. That’s kind of how I think about Cardenas – a nice high-floor but relatively low-ceiling bat with negligible defensive value at 4-5 positions. I wouldn’t expect him to follow Catalonotto’s career path strictly . . .it’s useful to consider it as a reference, not as a cloning template.
I actually expect that if both Cardenas and Weeks tore it up,
you might see Weeks moved to CF. But that’s purely speculation on my part.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
not just speculation
Weeks to CF has been mentioned a lot since he was in college. But the fact that Oakland was planning on moving Cardenas and keeping Weeks at 2B probably gives a clue into the organization’s thinking, doesn’t it?
I have a lot of skepticism about Weeks’ bat. He’s got a good eye at the plate, I’m just not sure he’s going to hit enough to profile as a regular at any position. I feel pretty strongly that Cardenas is going to have enough bat to play regularly somewhere on the field for somebody.
I have skepticism about Weeks' abliity to stay healthy
Cardenas had already played some 3B so until the A’s acquired Kouz, all it said when they were moving Cardenas to 3B is, “We really have nobody in this organization who can play 3B!”
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Health is an additional factor in evaluating Weeks,
so I feel a conservative rating is warranted. So far, Cardenas has stayed healthy.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
not totally
I think Jemile might have a tad more polish than Rickie at the same point, one of the benefits of coming from a strong D1 program.
On the downside, Jemile doesn’t have nearly the bat that Rickie did. While Rickie isn’t big, he always had that crazy bat speed and some loft to his swing that gave him surprising power potential. Jemile doesn’t have very much power at all, and it shows.
+1
"Life is a horizontal fall" -Jean Cocteau
by King Richard on Jan 19, 2010 12:08 AM EST up reply actions
+1
What you fail to understand in your joyless myopia is that baseball is the key to life-- the Rosetta Stone, if you will. If you just understood baseball better all your other questions your, your... the, uh... the aliens, the conspiracies they would all, in their way be answered by the baseball gods.
John
Where does Moustakas rate for you compared to Vitters and Dominguez? Is he a top 50 guy for you?
nope
Moose didn’t make the Top 50. He’s in the 60ish range
by John Sickels on Jan 19, 2010 11:07 AM EST up reply actions
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