Known Grade Changes: Pitchers
by John Sickels on Jan 17, 2010 10:27 PM EST
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PrintI will use this thread to mention known grade changes.
As I work on the 50/50 list, a few grades sometimes change as I can slot elite players from different organizations more directly in comparison to one another. This is why I emphasize that all the grades on the Top 20 lists are PRELIMINARY. I will go back and change rankings on the Top 20s as needed.
Zach Britton, LHP, Orioles, old grade B+, new GRADE B. He just fits better with the guys I have as strong Bs.
Trevor Reckling, LHP, Angels, old grade B+, new GRADE B. Component ratios don't hold up to the other Grade B+ guys. Overrated on the original list.
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Dislike you downgrade of Britton....
Dude is better than Arrieta in my book, and will be a quality #2 if all goes well.
Why do you like Britton better than Arrieta?
Is it simply A ball performance?
Arrieta looked pretty great in A Ball, too. He at least has a very good fastball. Arrieta’s secondary pitches are average at best, but hey, that’s still a third pitch that Britton doesnt have. I actually liked Arrieta’s A Ball performance more than Britton’s and Arrieta has better stuff. Plus, Arrieta can at least be a pretty good MLB reliever if he stops developing.
Britton's change
I have faith that pitch will become at least average. It showed good flashes this year. Because of the change, I believe his arsenal is deeper than Arrieta’s (I believe Britton’s slider is as effective as Arrieta’s change), and thus, I think Britton’s chances of being a starter are higher, so that’s why I would have Britton ahead of Arrieta. Maybe that isn’t a ringing endorsement of ZB. I do prefer him ahead of Arrieta, but I think the B suits me fine in regards to Britton. Due to Arrieta’s fb, he does have higher upside, and Britton will need to continue improving on the change (and remain consistent on the sinker/slider) to be more than an end of the rotation lefty.
I strongly agree with both changes.
Both are guys whose stuff just doesnt match the results. Britton doesnt have great stuff and lacks a third pitch. His control and command arent very good, either. I think he’s ultimately a solid back end type, but people need to stop looking at his results alone. Its nice to see the peripherals keep trending up, but the jump to AA is going to be a huge test for Britton. Lets see if guys keep swinging at that slider.
Reckling I actually like more than Britton, but his velocity and fastball hold him back from being a top pitching prospect. He also doesnt have great command. I think Reckling is a good bet to be a middle of the rotation type, but he performed much more like a B- than a B+. For a guy with two very good secondary pitches, we can already see his velocity and command holding him back. This year he struck out 7.1/9 and walked 4.5/9. Those numbers and a “meh” fastball that just can’t add up to a “B+”
Neither guy seemed like a B+ to me. They fit much better as “B’s.”
Here is an actual +1
Completely agreed. The grades for Reckling and Britton were ones that had me scratching my head, the drop in grade makes much more sense. I also strongly agree about Arrieta vs. Britton, I much prefer Arrieta, and it’s not particularly close in my mind.
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I hate agreeing with you two now!
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Disagree
His stuff is way better than you are giving him credit for. Lefty whose fastball comfortably sits in the low 90s, slider with good depth, and a change that shows solid fade, those guys hardly grow on trees. He needs to make strides with his command and control, but look at the numbers! An 8.42 K/9 and a 3.38 GO/AO. I think it would be a mistake to project that kind of a talent as a back-end guy.
by BrosbeforeShaincoes on Jan 18, 2010 10:30 AM EST up reply actions
What?
In what context is a 3.38 GO/AO not that good?
by BrosbeforeShaincoes on Jan 18, 2010 11:11 PM EST up reply actions
The GO/AO is very good. The entirety of the numbers really isnt as impressive as its been made out to be.
3.5 BB/9. He is still in A+ in his fourth pro season, and he went slowly, level by level (though he’s not old).
These numbers are good, but not clear B+ good, especially when viewed in tandem with his scouting reports.
Reckling has not gone slowly actually
Last year was his 3rd pro season, and only 2nd full season.
Drafted in 2007 in the 8th round.
2007 (18yr old) in RK ball
2008 (18-19yr old) in A ball
2009 (19-20yr old) in A+ but mainly in AA
He had only 3 starts in A+ and did very well, promoted aggressively to AA which is unusual for the Angels who like their pitchers to go step by step. The last two pitchers they did that with was Jered Weaver and Ervin Santana.
I think Reckling is progressing quite nicely.
by TheQuestforMerlin on Jan 18, 2010 11:44 PM EST up reply actions
!
Oh. Carry on…
I thought it was odd you got the details wrong with Reckling…
by TheQuestforMerlin on Jan 18, 2010 11:49 PM EST up reply actions
No I think you were right, lol!
Man, outside of the K/9 and GO/AO stats posted by BBS, his description fits both players:
Lefty whose fastball comfortably sits in the low 90s, slider with good depth, and a change that shows solid fade, those guys hardly grow on trees. He needs to make strides with his command and control
Replace slider with curveball and you have Reckling!
by TheQuestforMerlin on Jan 19, 2010 12:45 AM EST up reply actions
I agree with that
That’s what makes me really interested in his progress. If his control and fastball improve going forward, he will be mightily effective. I like his deceptive delivery too (although the working parts hurt him).
But at age 20 going on 21 in either AA or more likely AAA, I think he’s a nice prospect to have. Great 8th round pick-up.
by TheQuestforMerlin on Jan 19, 2010 12:59 AM EST up reply actions
Britton's fastball is better than Reckling's
He was 91-94 for me when I saw him in August, while the scouting reports have Reckling as a 88-91 guy. Add in Britton’s extreme ground ball rates and I think you have a B+ prospect. Although I admit he would be towards the lower end of the B+ spectrum. It’s not like it’s a crime to have him as a B, just something I disagree with.
by BrosbeforeShaincoes on Jan 19, 2010 3:29 AM EST up reply actions
Can you explain why it matters that it's his 4th pro season?
I can understand being concerned if a player – particularly a hitter – is doing very well against people far younger than him, but considering ARL matters far less for a pitcher, and Britton is pretty young regardless, why is it an issue that he’s had more time in the minors?
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by OldProspects on Jan 19, 2010 10:23 PM EST up reply actions
His performance is less impressive to me b/c of that
b/c he’s gone very slowly, gettting the time to adjust to each level and hasn’t advanced beyond A ball despite that. So, presumably, all his improvement could be only in pitchability and we would have a hard knowing b/c he’s still facing first year pros regularly, while he’s sort of an old hand at this (facing A Ball hitters) and could very well be getting by on polish – which is a huge concern for me given how poor his change is. I think the jump to AA was already going to be a huge crucible for his repertoire and it might be even more so b/c he’s progressed so slowly and steadily.
Not a huge factor, but look at it this way… how many top prospects have that kind of development pattern? How many B+ pitchers spend 4 seasons in the low minors going level by level, one stop a year?
I agree with this:
Both are guys whose stuff just doesnt match the results. Britton doesnt have great stuff and lacks a third pitch. His control and command arent very good, either. I think he’s ultimately a solid back end type, but people need to stop looking at his results alone. Its nice to see the peripherals keep trending up, but the jump to AA is going to be a huge test for Britton. Lets see if guys keep swinging at that slider.
Leave Britton as a B+, if he has a rough year at Bowie you move him down. He has improved at every level.
by Jordan Tuwiner on Jan 17, 2010 11:00 PM EST up reply actions
Since when does Britton not have good stuff?
His fastball can hit the mid 90s when he wants velocity instead of movement. Moreover, as a sinker-ball pitcher his need for a third pitch is a lot more limited than others. He could probably survive with his sinker-slider combo alone. You seriously under-rate him Alskor.
That said…I definitely disagree with the Britton change. The Reckling one makes sense, he’s pretty over-rated. Changing Britton is a very disappointing decision.
by Franchise887 on Jan 18, 2010 3:11 PM EST up reply actions
Reckling
I don’t think Reckling is over rated, as a B he seems to be rated quite correctly. An 8th round draft pick, unheralded, one of the youngest pitchers in AA in 2009, with a respected repertoire (good change and breaking ball) but with inconsistent command and average-y peripheral results last year.
I think both Britton and Reckling are pitchers who next year are definite candidates for B+/A- grades depending on further improvements.
by TheQuestforMerlin on Jan 18, 2010 3:39 PM EST up reply actions
Reckling
I understand the reduction.. and the honestly…However I think looking back you will regret not jumping on the early bandwagon.
He was just 20, after all
But I agree with John – the walks and shaky command are going to bump his stock this year. Injuries permitting, he’ll figure it out and attain his mid-rotation ceiling, but I don’t see him having an impact at the mlb level for a couple more years.
not really
Not really. I was on the reckling bandwagon 2 years ago before anyone else had even heard of him.
by John Sickels on Jan 18, 2010 12:41 PM EST up reply actions
A "B" grade suggests you're still on the band wagon...
And not off to the side throwing Reckling under it!
The monster at the end of this blog.
What have his grades been over the last 3 years?
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-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Jan 18, 2010 5:53 PM EST up reply actions
reckling
Reckling’s grades
2008 book: Grade C, but noted as a sleeper with long-term potential, as an 8th round pick coming out of high school
2009: Grade B-, with “big step forward” possible in 2009.
by John Sickels on Jan 18, 2010 5:59 PM EST up reply actions
stay on the wagon
Think B is the consensus grade and maybe the right grade…
But stay ahead of the curve….
by novaoakland on Jan 19, 2010 3:46 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
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