Young SP & WHIP improvement
by bodyiq on Jan 17, 2010 6:34 PM EST
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PrintBoth C. Kershaw and U. Jimenez both posted a respectable 1.23 WHIP during the 2009 season.
Not having reached their potential/ceiling yet, my hope is that they will continue to improve command of their pitches.
Do you think that this is a realistic expectation for these two young studs to be? Who else would you expect to see a WHIP improvement from for the upcoming season?
Other possibilities include:
? ? ? ? ?
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I think
Kershaw and Jimenez will improve. Kershaw gave up the fewest hits in the league but his walks were very high. That comes with more control and not trying to go for the strikeout at every batter. When you do that, you try to be too perfect and you throw too many pitches and that forces walks. Jimenez will probably improve a little, but only walked 3.5/9.
Another person who will probably improve is Chad Billingsley, as he walked almost 4.0/9. I think that a lot of his walks came after his hammy injury that really hurt him later into the game…
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Jan 17, 2010 7:44 PM EST reply actions
**with his injury healed, the walks should go down..
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Jan 17, 2010 7:45 PM EST reply actions
Kershaw
I think he’s a pretty good bet to have a regression on WHIP, unless he takes a leap forward in his walk rate. His BABIP last year was .274 last year, after posting a .325 BABIP in 2008. I’d expect a regression closer to somewhere near the midpoint of those values in 2010.
that could be a vaild point..
but i think it is expected that his control becomes better. He has almost mastered 3 pitches, fastball, curve and slider, and has the changeup, but is working on confidence. Watching Kerhsaw last season, it seemed that when he was on, he was always near the zone, but a lot of times he’d try to be too perfect and end up walking guys. As he gets older and learns to pitch to contact a little(something he worked on towards the end of last season), his walk rates should plummet. He has the stuff and control of it, most of the time, but he can also lose it at times..
With his BABIP, I wonder if that had anything to do with defense. In 08, before we got Blake, we had a black hole of sorts at 3B and Kent at 2B. Furcal was out with surgery as well. And Andruw Jones was still in the OF. (wow how times have changed…) Kershaw, and all Dodger pitchers, had a horrible defense around them and their BABIP suffered, IMO, because many of the guys simply couldnt get to balls. they were ruled hits by the scorer because there wasnt an error on the play, but it was something a better defender could have prevented…
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Jan 18, 2010 2:29 AM EST up reply actions
+1
People here like to say “Kershaw got lucky with his BABIP in 2009, and thus his WHIP will be higher in 2010.” That sort of analysis fails to take into consideration the fact that he will very likely gain better control of his pitches as he gets more experience.
Honestly, I expect the WHIP to stay the same in 2010. Any regression to the mean in BABIP will be offset by improved control.
if you look at my post
I did say “unless he takes a leap forward in his walk rate”
Yeah I did actually
I wasn’t calling you out specifically. I just have read a ton of posters here and elsewhere making that same comment – which is why I kept it very general.
Any regression to the mean in BABIP will be offset by improved control.
I dont really know if we can just assume that.
Not that much of a "stretch"
Given that young, tall pitchers tend to take a little longer than others to improve their control of the strike zone.
Yeah, it’s an assumption. But so is any theory that his BABIP will regress.
patience
If he put up these numbers and showed this kind of stuff as a 21 year old at double-a. We would be kissing his ass and calling him the best pitching prospect in baseball. Yet when he puts up those numbers against the best hitters in the world, we try to find faults in his game. Injuries are the only thing that will keep kershaw from again dominating ml hitters. His walk rate would be a big concern if he was 25 years old. Even then he would have time to fix it. Give the poor 21 year old pitcher a break. How would you like being judged as a finished product at 21.
command
It is easy for a low 90,s fastball and a get it over curve to have good command. The more excessive the tools are the harder they are to use. A five year old can drive a car at five miles an hour. It takes more expierience and time if that car is going 200. I watched all of kershaws starts last year and if Greg Maddux had stuff that violent it would have taken him awhile to get it under control also. Think Randy Johnson, Nolan Ryan and tell me kershaw is not well ahead of their learning curve. If you think it is wrong to compare kershaws stuff to 2 hall of famers. Then you have not seen him pitch.
Did you ever see Greg Maddux pitch?
Because if you don’t think he had violent movement on his pitches, you’re crazy.
And you don’t compare prospects to hall-of-famers for a reason. Do you have any idea how many pitchers with great stuff DIDN’T reach their ceilings because of control problems?
maddux
As a 21 year old he made 27 starts .walked 4.3 per 9 and had a 1.638 whip. I would have liked to hear your guy responses then.
Im sure I would have questioned him
since he’s a super weirdo outlier and is never a good comp for anyone, even in part.
Its like saying “this kid swings just like Johnny Damon.” I would think “wow… that’s a shame. Poor kid.”
When are you still a prospect?
This was Kershaw’s 2nd year and this year he had a 2.79 ERA and an FIP to back it up. That’s still a prospect? Jeez..
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Jan 19, 2010 9:43 PM EST up reply actions
FIP
is worthless when only 4% of your fly balls go for homeruns.
We’re talking about Kershaw’s “prospects” for peripheral improvement. Playing with semantics doesn’t get us any further in that discussion.
let me get this straight
one reason he is good is because his defense is awesome. the other reason is he is lucky. you guys need to put the calculators down and actually enjoy watching the game of baseball. if you watch the players play. you wont need numbers to know that you are talking about one of the most dominant young pitchers of the last 20 years.
Not at all
one reason he is good is because his defense is awesome. the other reason is he is lucky
No. He is actually very good and one of the best young talents in the game. He did get lucky last year though, and plays in a park and in front of a defense that helped him quite a bit.
He’s really good, but not as good as you’re painting him.
Bill Plaschke, ladies and gentlemen.
I love your work.
um, no
His 4% HR rate is more attributed to unhittable pitches and the parks he plays in. He plays 1/2 his games at Dodger Stadium and at least 1/4 more of his games at AT&T, Chase Field or PETCO. Even so, it is not easy to square up a 94 MPH FB, with a curveball that has been deemed public enemy #1 by one of the greatest announcers in Dodger history(who has seen almost every great pitcher in Dodger History) and a slider that is statistically better than his curve… and he just started throwing the slider in June. Oh, and he has a plus changeup, but doesnt trust it enough.. which is his offseason goal. His 4 pitches look the same out of his hand but all go different direction and different velocities. It is very hard to square up any of these pitches.
Remember, as a 21 yr old, he had the 2nd best FB in the league tied with Matt Cain behind… Randy Wolf. As a 21 year old he had the 2nd most valuable FB in the league… a pitch EVERY pitcher throws… I just felt I needed to say that twice.
With the prospect stuff, I seriously think what he did 2 years ago in the minors, when he has already had serious MLB success, is all but useless. Yes, he needs to work on his control. But guess what, so does almost every other 21 year old pitcher. However, how many of them have had this MLB success at 21? Not many. That is what separates him from prospect to MLB pitcher, and average MLB pitcher to elite MLB pitcher.
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Jan 19, 2010 11:12 PM EST up reply actions
Maybe he's so special the rules of time, space, and probabalities that have affected every other pitcher, ever...
don’t apply to him. Could be.
Maddux had movement,
but it wasn’t as great as that of Kershaw’s. Maddux’s strength was decreasing the speed of his pitches to harness his control. In Maddux’s early years with the Cubs, he was a max effort guy throwing in the 94-95 mhp range. It wasn’t until he was with the Braves that he learned accuracy was much more important than maxing out. Maddux was also a great thinker and hard worker when it came to studying players, line ups, etc.
Kershaw is still young. He has to learn the same things that Maddux learned, even though Maddux was more successful than Kershaw even when he was maxing out his arm. I agree with the Mick in the terms that one shouldn’t compare HOFers to prospects, but at the same time, using an example like this and like that of Cabrera below is good when fully explained.
As for Ryan and Johnson, Johnson was always a super-talented guy. Ryan reached the MLB at a young age as a thrower (same with Johnson) and learned how to pitch through teammates and over time. Kershaw needs time to develop, but at the same time, he may never develop into anything more than he currently is. Remember those were two of the hardest working pitchers that you’re comparing him to. Work ethic had a lot to do with their development and careers.
"When Justin Upton faces Lincecum, I think Christ might appear in the heavens, and the world will end." -JakeFree
Think Randy Johnson, Nolan Ryan and tell me kershaw is not well ahead of their learning curve.
Nolan Ryan’s control never got better. Unit didnt figure it out until a relatively late age.
I watched all of kershaws starts last year and if Greg Maddux had stuff that violent it would have taken him awhile to get it under control also.
The corresponding argument is he may NEVER get it under control – or it could take a long time, as you say. Since we were talking about 2010 it seems you actually see him regressing next year as a very real possibility despite your protestations above.
He could also end up taking something off his pitches so he can actually command them.
The question is
what type of regression are we talking about? Doubles his HR rate, ERA jumps to an ungodly 3.50. My gosh, no, how terrible. He could regress to Brett Anderson status and we all know how terrible that is;
Have I ever said anything that indicates I think his performance is going to be terrible?
Or have I stopped constantly to remind everyone he’s a very good pitcher, but not as good as he appeared in 2009?
The 2009 Dodgers' defense was baseball's best...
at converting balls-in-play to outs. In 2008, they were 15th, which, while worse, still put them above the mean. If you want to argue that one of Kershaw’s yearly BABIPs was affected by drastically atypical defense, make that argument about his 2009 season.
And if you want to argue that Kershaw’s walk rate should go down as he ages, I don’t agree with you, but I understand the idea. Along with that though, you need to understand that lower walk rates typically come with lower strikeout rates, which will bring more balls in play (and an almost surely higher BABIP).
What is often ignored in these discussions is that pitchers don’t develop the same way hitters do. You can’t expect continued improvement from pitchers as they age, because their career arcs aren’t similar. Kershaw’s probably going to get better, but it’s pretty unlikely he does it a little bit each year. A pitchers’ improvement (when it happens, because it often doesn’t) tends to be in leaps and plateaus. Understanding that, and how to evaluate the statistics, will go a long way toward understanding why a lot of people think Kershaw will “disappoint” in 2010.
Jimenez is already a borderline ace, IMO, the stats could back that up
If Jimenez is going to improve, the K/BB is going to need to improve like it has been since he’s been in the majors. He already induces a lot of groundballs, so I believe the K/9 is good enough for him already, it’s the control he needs to improve on. The best thing that he can do is to improve his fastball location, which in turn will make his other pitches better. I remember watching a few games of his and he would start the game off throwing 98 MPH missiles that weren’t even close, which hurt his pitch count and would give other teams the lead early. If he reduces those problems it wouldn’t surprise me to see him go over 200 innings again next year, reduce his walk rate, lower his WHIP below 1.20, strike out 200, and have a lower FIP/ERA, under 3 in fact.
Impossible not to have positive thoughts.
I want Sam Deduno to pitch already.
You know what would improve WHIP?
Not using it at all.
Seriously, just looking at a pitcher’s ERA predicts his next year’s ERA better than WHIP does. It’s a completely useless statistic.
Shawn Spencer: "I’m receiving a transmission from your husband. Really more of a voicemail, if I'm being honest. A status update. Perhaps a twitter."
Burton Guster: "I believe it’s called a tweet."
Shawn Spencer: "There’s no way I’m saying that."
Going out on a limb but ...
Joba Chamberlain will improve his WHIP in 2010 and stabilize the back-end of the Yankees rotation. Joba put together 2 very solid months in June and July. Now that talk of converting Joba to a reliever has been settled, I think we’ll be able to see Joba work on a predictable schedule w/out an innings cap.
by Mizur29 on Jan 19, 2010 1:08 AM EST reply actions
Now that talk of converting Joba to a reliever has been settled
It has? To me, the most probably outcome is Hughes goes into the pen and Joba to the bullpen this year. Cashman has made it clear theyre competing for one spot.
Joba’s 2009 raised more questions than it answered. His velocity and stuff went up and down during games. His results werent great. He didnt really show that he has the durability to be a starter or that his stuff will last long into games (both of which were overlooked question marks previously).
I think he can be a pretty good starter, but the Joba to the bullpen crowd could easily point to 2009 as one big argument for why his future lies in the pen.
Whereas, Phil Hughes looked absolutely lights out and made a strong argument for a spot in the rotation.
With Vazquez joining Pettitte, CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett in the rotation, the Yankees have room for only one of Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain to work as starters. Cashman said it will be an open competition for the fifth-starter’s spot, with the loser either moving to the bullpen or to Triple-A.
http://www.cbssports.com/mcc/messages/chrono/18853392/0/0/18854851Cashman also said; "We noticed this year that Joba has a different attitude coming out of the pen. He is the type of pitcher that comes at you with blood, sweat, and guts. Joba starting a game is more reserved, which might not be his make-up. We will talk [th]is through, see if we can get the right people in the right place to make us [stronger]. Joba could be that “guy” in the bullpen. He said if the right opportunity presents itself, then YES Joba could be in the bullpen .
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