Houston Astros Top 20 Prospects for 2010
by John Sickels on Jan 12, 2010 11:51 PM EST
21 comments
Top 20 Houston Astros Prospects for 2010
All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don't get too worried about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get beyond the Top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you want to emphasize. Complete reports on these and over 1,000 other players will be in the 2010 Baseball Prospect Book, now available for pre-order, shipping on February 2nd!
1) Jason Castro, C, Grade B+: I really like his defense, and his bat should at least be decent. He's kind of a low-end B+, with a high floor but a lower ceiling compared to some other guys in this grade range.
2) Jordan Lyles, RHP, Grade B+: Highly impressive season in the Sally League, great K/BB and K/IP marks. . .and he is two months younger than '09 draftee Jiovanni Mier. I almost ranked him number one.
3) Jiovanni Mier, SS, Grade B: Borderline B+, but I'd like to get some full-season data first. Well-balanced offensive and defensive prospect. Chance to be a national top 20 prospect a year from now if all goes well.
4) Sammy Gervacio, RHP, Grade B-. He was great in Houston, but command was wobblier during Triple-A time. Could be a future closer if it all comes together.
5) Chia-Jen Lo, RHP, Grade B-: Relief guy that I like a lot, maybe more than I should. Needs sharper control but I think he can develop it. Like Gervacio, Lo might be a closer.
6) Tanner Bushue, RHP, Grade B-: Cold-weather high school pitcher, projectable, did well in small sample size debut. Could pull a Jordan Lyles in '10.
7) T.J. Steele, OF, Grade C+: I don't like the BB/K ratio, but the guy has some serious bat speed and is toolsy. If he can improve his plate discipline even slightly, could explode in '10.
8) Jay Austin, OF, Grade C+: There is a lot of projection in that grade. He wasn't too great in the Sally League, but it was still huge improvement over the suckitude of his rookie ball performance. Born the same month and year as Mier and played a level higher last year.
9) Jon Gaston, OF, Grade C+: Power is real, and he has better tools than he is given credit for; he's not a bad athlete. Main problem: can he keep his batting average and OBP adequate outside of the Cal League?
10) Ross Seaton, RHP, Grade C+: Could rate above the three tools outfielders, but the low strikeout rate and reports of dropping velocity concern me.
11) Matt Nevarez, RHP, Grade C+: Dominant Sally League performance, throws hard, could move quickly as relief option if he maintains the control he showed this year. Good trade pickup. Underrated.
12) Fernando Abad, LHP, Grade C+: Pitchability lefty with tremendous K/BB and K/IP ratios.
13) Juri Perez, RHP, Grade C+: Impressive performance in Appy League, scouting reports are positive, need higher level data of course but a good ceiling.
14) Chris Johnson, 3B, Grade C, borderline C+. Decent corner bat, but needs better plate discipline. Some scouts seem high on him, but he looks more like a decent contributor than a future starter to me.
15) Polin Trinidad, LHP, Grade C: Possible fifth starter or long relief type, could help in '10.
16) Collin DeLome, OF, Grade C: Has power and speed, tools are underrated, the guy is a good athlete, but command of the strike zone is a big problem.
17) Brian Bogusevic, OF, Grade C: Gets some slack due to his background, I can still see him as a useful fourth outfielder.
18) Enrique Hernandez, 2B-SS, Grade C: sixth round pick out of Puerto Rico, looked good in rookie ball, need higher level data but a sleeper to watch for '10. I have a good intuitive feeling about him.
19) Brad Dydalewicz, LHP, Grade C: Not as good a prospect as Lyles or Seaton, but fellow '08 draftee held his own in the Sally League. Would like to see a higher strikeout rate.
20) J.P. Martinez, OF, Grade C: A terror with the bat in college, the Appy League, and the NY-P League. I have mixed reports about his tools; some people like them, some don't, but it looks like he can hit. If that remains true in full-season ball, his stock will rise quickly in '10.
OTHERS: Jose Altuve, 2B; Eric Castro, 3B; Leandro Cespedes, RHP; Koby Clemens, C-DH; Evan Engelbrook, RHP; Ed Ferreira, LHP, Dallas Keuchel, LHP; Arecinio Leon, RHP; Tommy Manzella, SS; Jonathan Mejia, SS-3B: Jonathan Meyer, 3B: Daniel Meszaros, RHP; Telvin Nash, OF; Michael Schurz, RHP; Jack Shuck, OF; Jose Vallejo, 2B; Henry Villar, RHP.
Note that many of the Grade C guys not listed in the Top 20 are interchangeable with the 14-20 slots. . .I emphasized the guys who I felt were most interesting (Hernandez, Dydalewicz, Martinez) or close to the majors. Clemens could be on there if I knew what position he could play at higher levels. International signees Ferreira and Mejia have the ceilings to rank, but without any performance data to look at I wasn't going to put them there yet. Eric Castro is an interesting sleeper from the '09 draft, etc. Making sense of the mass of C+/C guys and ranking them is difficult; there is a lot of flux once you get out of the Top Ten.
The Astros system has improved over the last two years. Jason Castro, Lyles, and Mier are a strong front three, and after them there's a nice mixture of upside (Bushue, Austin, Seaton), guys ready for or on the verge of the majors (Gervacio, Lo), and people in the middle with questions but potential (Gaston, Steele). As stated, there are some interesting Grade Cs beyond them. But the organization falls short in terms of depth, a hangover from botched drafts earlier this decade.
The system does have some strengths. The Latin American operation quietly continues to pump Grade C guys into the system, and some of the younger ones have upside beyond that. The scouting staff has done well in the last two drafts. The problems with this organization go back to short-sighted ownership decisions. If the baseball folks can maintain the momentum from the last two drafts, things will look up eventually.
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Not bad
1. Mier – Thought he was a B+ but I’m about as satisfied with a B and that strong player comment.
2. Bushue – Happy he got the B-, I was expecting a less aggressive grade
3. Austin – I agree that he wasn’t “too great” in the Sally if you mean he was good, not great, but I think you mean he had a weak year. I don’t agree considering his age, but a C+ is understandable.
4. Seaton – Disappointed with the C+, but understandable. I was hoping his less than impressive numbers were less important than his potential. Maybe I overestimate his potential.
5. Abad – Love it!! Thought his scouting reports weren’t so hot. Guess not.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 13, 2010 12:06 AM EST reply actions
Love the Bushue grade.
Big fan of him.
As for Castro, I think he’ll be much more well-known as Stephen Strasburg’s catcher at San Diego State than his own pro career. When they show highlights of Strasburg’s career on MLB Network in 20 years, he’ll be that guy catching during Strasburg’s incredible junior year “that foreshadowed things to come.”
Seaton.
All Bumgarner fans know that teenagers losing velocity is normal, and nothing to bother dropping a prospect’s stock for, right?
You're right...
Nothing wrong with dropping his grade. Had Seaton not experienced that velocity drop, I suspect he’d be ranked a B/B+, and had Bum not experienced it, he’d been a top 5-10 prospect instead of a top 10-15.
Poster formerly known as artie
Heh.
The “justification” for dropping Bumgarner in the first place is his dramatically falling strikeout rate. The combination of that and his velocity drop is what puts him in the 30-50 range.
Seaton’s grade is an example of how you should deal with these problems instead of trying to explain them away.
I suppose...
my argument the whole time has been that there is justifiable rationale to place Bum where he is, and to possibly slide him further.
I’m just a hobbyist prospector, been doing it for about 20 years now, and my process is pretty much the same. I check the stats, the scouting reports, how the team handles someone and what the experts are doing with that data, then I use that information to evaluate a guy.
So what do I see with Bum, two things that are troublesome at initial glance, being the drop in Ks and drop in velocity. However, on the plus side, indicating that it wasn’t a complete collapse, is his 1 WHIP and BB rate.
And showing it probably wasn’t an injury is the fact that the Giant’s never shut him down, and promoted him to the majors, and at 20 years old, that’s a significant accomplishment to me.
Then I listen to what the scouts say, and not only have I seen where his fastball is still a 60 pitch even with the lost velocity, but then a scout said this velocity drop is not abnormal. Then BA and the team said the velocity drop happened for the second half of the season, and was a result of too much side work.
Then I had to check out how experts were handling him, Sickels gave him an A-, John Manuel had him in his top 10. BA said this about his future: “Bumgarner has No. 1 starter potential and his stuff would play against big leaguers now”
So while the velocity drop and resulting K drop were troubling, what the team said and did, what the scouts are saying, what the experts are saying all point to a moderate drop in rankings, not a dramatic drop.
Since I have no first hand knowledge of how he’s doing (although I expect to go to Arizona this year for spring training and will check him out first hand there), I have to rely on all that information. I could discount outliers, but it feels that the preponderance of the evidence currently available show that this velocity drop is more than likely temporary and it shouldn’t significantly impact his rankings.
Poster formerly known as artie
by beastball on Jan 13, 2010 10:31 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Very intelligent reply
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on Jan 19, 2010 1:31 AM EST up reply actions
Love the Lyles grade
Wrote him up over at my blog today. Really like him, and could see a higher grade next year.
http://jasonsbaseballblog.wordpress.com
yeah
it is hard to expect him to put up great numbers in AA next season, being so young, but if he does, he’ll be a top prospect for sure next season (whether he gets a grade bump would still be questionable).
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 13, 2010 9:06 PM EST up reply actions
T.J. Steele
Baseball player of Porn Star?
" Tell me something Steve, How does a guy from Puerto Rico loose a ball in the Sun? "
You're going to have to open up a 2nd thread
if this deluge of posts keeps up.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
Ha
I think most of the interesting discussion already happened in the two previous Astros threads. There aren’t too many people interested in anyone outside the top 3 guys.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 13, 2010 2:47 PM EST up reply actions
+1 on the Seaton grade
Didn’t like him at all when i watched him. His delivery is ugly to say the least.
Castro Ascendent
It’s been interesting watching Castro develop into their top prospect.
He was a considered a huge overdraft at the time, but I’m sure the ’Stros would rather have him than Skipworth.
I wonder if college catchers are a little undervalued. That extra catching experience puts them a bit closer to the majors.
Maybe they trend to being high floor, low ceiling players but a pretty good safe bet. Like Kurt Suzuki. There seem to be so many questions about whether guys can stick at catcher as they move up from the lower minors but college catchers have established themselves at the position.
I suspect Tony Perez might have a similar career path.
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