Top players under 25
by Pitvipers on Jan 12, 2010 10:46 PM EST
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Does anyone know of a site that ranks future potential for all players under 25? Kevin Goldstein does a great job ranking them by team on Baseball Prospectus, but I was looking for a top 100 ranking. Ideally the list would factor in defense. I'd be interested in seeing something like this because I'm curious how former top prospects who have MLB experience rank with current prospects. For example, I'd like to see some opinions on where guys like Derek Holland & Dexter Fowler rank with Madison Bumgarner & Cameron Maybin.
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Project Prospect
Did that before last season. A top 50 hitters under 25 and one for pitchers, plus they did some top 10/15s for each position (some under 25 some under 30).
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 12, 2010 10:50 PM EST reply actions
re
I went to Project Prospect and clicked on Top 25 Position Prospects (9/1) and just don’t understand some of the rankings. The first two that REALLY jump out at me are Ackley above Jennings (though that’s just one place) and FMart above, well, a lot of the people that he’s above.
yeah
they have some pretty controversial rankings right now. it will be interesting to see which players they like more than everyone else pan out.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 13, 2010 10:44 AM EST up reply actions
The Dewey Finn corollary
“Look at us! Look at us! Our rankings are much different than everyone else’s! This lets us say that we’re generating debate!”
Don't think that is the case with PP though.
They just like some moderately high floor guys and think they’ll have a nice impact, and don’t buy into a lot of toolsy unproven players. Although there are exceptions to that philosophy too. I think they are aiming to be accurate, not trying to spark controversy. Thinking highly of Carlos Carrasco and Kevin Mulvey, isn’t exactly hot stuff.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 13, 2010 11:06 AM EST up reply actions
Next they'll be comparing white players to black players!
My car gets 40 rods to the hogshead and that’s the way I likes it!
Like yourself?
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by King Billy Royal on Jan 17, 2010 2:34 PM EST up reply actions
If we are counting MLB players...
Lincecum is #1… shortly after is Kershaw.
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Jan 12, 2010 11:19 PM EST reply actions
Yup
Kershaw? Kershaw for me is third best player under 25 on his own team! Im taking Kemp and Billingsley easy.
Assumes age 25 counts for Kemp…
Really?
How would you rationalize that? Kershaw is 3 1/2 years younger, had a better K/9 last year by a full strikeout and a half, his FIP was 3.08 compared to Billingsley’s 3.82, he’s left handed, and he’s under team control for 2 more years (not exactly a criterion for this question). Kershaw’s production AND potential are better than Billingsley’s. I don’t think any team would rather start a team with Billingsley rather than Kershaw.
And, if we are really going to stick to the “Under 25”, Billingsley is 25 1/2 and will turn 26 by the first trimester of next season.
I guess I cant justify it
Looking at it again. Billingsley was more proven in my head.
I just dont think Kershaw will continue succeeding at this rate if he keeps walking that many guys. His xFIP was 3.90 fwiw. He gets helped a lot by Dodgers stadium.
I just think Billingsley will return to form (and he was better than Kershaw previous to this year) and Kershaw will regress.
This is so true.
If Felix pitched for the Dodgers, you’d be saying “Lincecum who?”
Huh?
Felix pitches in Safeco, one of the best pitchers parks in baseball (and he has a tremendous defense behind him).
True.
But Lincecum pitches in the NL, faces pitchers three times a game, plays in a pitchers park, and shares a division with San Diego, LA, and Arizona.
Felix, on the other hand, has the Angels (#2 offense in baseball), Rangers (#10), and A’s (#14) in his division. If he were in LA (probably the situation for a starting pitcher in baseball) he’d have two bottom-five offenses in his division, and call 2009’s third best pitcher’s park his home (Safeco was #10). I wouldn’t be surprised to see a .50 drop in Felix’s FIP if he moved to the Dodgers, which would drop him easily into Lincecum territory.
He was lucky across the board in 2009.
Unless we see a significant increase in his peripherals, 2010 will likely be a disappointment for Kershaw fans.
Of course, pitching in Dodger Stadium has something to do with that luck, so it might not change as much as it should.
please define "lucky"
I’m not trying to be a smart ass – I’m trying to understand all of the ‘new’ metrics. Did he have a high FIP (or xFIP, whatever) or was the BABIP against him really high?
The three numbers I look at first...
to define “luck” in a pitcher’s totals is BABIP, HR/F, and LOB%
Kershaw’s BABIP was .274 in 2009. Now, LA’s pitchers had the lowest BABIP in the league at .286, so some of that was park and good defense. However, there’s no reason not to expect Kershaw’s number to regress quite a bit next year. The mean for this number is ~.305, so you should start looking at least a little skeptically at any number <.300.
Kershaw’s HR/F was 4.1% last year. Again, his park helps a lot. Still, the team average was 8.1% (lowest in baseball, again), so projecting Kershaw to double that number next year would be perfectly reasonable. The mean for this number is ~10%.
FIP will account for BABIP and LOB%, but doesn’t adjust for homerun rate (xFIP does this). That’s why Kershaw’s xFIP is 3.90 for 2009, while his FIP is 3.08. If I had to ballpark it, I’d say his ERA should have been somewhere around 3.50, rather than 2.79, because his ballpark and division is always going to help him vs. xFIP.
Kershaw’s LOB% last year was 77.5%. Being a strikeout pitcher will help this number, but the mean last year was ~71.5%, and there’s not a ton of variance. Of the top 20 K/9 starters in baseball, 15 had lower rates than Kershaw, including five of the six guys ahead of him.
oops
somehow the third and fourth paragraph got switched. Read the fourth one third, if that makes more sense.
thx
though I think you’re undervaluing him by a bit, I appreciate the feedback! I still think that his numbers as a 21 year old in the majors are impressive no matter how you slice and dice it, and yes ‘luck’ may have had something to do with it (as you’ve proven), but he’ll also improve and ‘negate’ some of that luck differential.
Oh he's really good
No one is doubting that.
Just how good is the issue, and I agree, its closer to a 3.50-3.75 kind of guy. He’s really not one of the top tier of pitchers in baseball right now, despite the misleading ERA indicating he is. Top tier starters don’t walk over 5 guys per 9 (and YES, Nolan Ryan was very overrated).
Agreed about Lincecum
Except he’s not “under 25”.
This eliminates a lot of my candidates (Tulo, Fielder, kemp, Zimmerman, Josh Johnson) since they are all exactly 25.
If it’s truly “under 25”, and the question is “who is the BEST” and not “who would you rather have…” (e.g., I’d rather have Rasmus at than Coghlan but Coghlan unquestionably had the better year)
My top 10 would look something like this (factoring in defensive utility as well) – I’m sure I’m missing some people
1. Felix
2. Upton
3. Kershaw
4. Weiters
5. Brett Anderson
6. Bruce
7. Adam Jones
8. Rasmus
9. Billy Butler
10. Gallardo
I didn’t include Heyward, Santana, Strasburg. I guess I could slide them in there, but it would honestly be based on very little information.
Considering Adam Jones is #7...
I don’t think arguing for McCutchen would be unreasonable.
Except
Adam Jones is a brilliant defender, and McCutchen is mediocre.
And Adam Jones, while significantly younger than McCutchen had about .50 points on him in isolated slugging over his minor league career.
McCutchen’s 2009 season was out of line with his minor league career and at this point, I put more weight on that – significantly moreso than his 3 month hot streak.
McCutchen is a decent fielding speedster with a likely career .350 wOBA guy. Certainly valuable, but not elite. Like Nate McLouth or a worse fielding version of Shane Victorino.
And to the comment below, defense matters and both Rasmus and Adam Jones are elite centerfielders, while McCutchen is maybe a little better than average. Plus, they both have significantly more offensive upside.
and to the logical follow up
“well if defense, matters why is Billy Butler there”.
Because he is going to be a god offensively.
The 50+ doubles he hit last year become homers, and I think he’s a long term .400+ wOBA along the lines of .325/.400/.550
My logical follow-up...
is, “why the hell do you think Adam Jones is so much better in CF than McCutchen?” There’s certainly no statistical argument for it, and scouts love McCutchen’s defense.
Do you rank defenders by their gold gloves and WebGems appearances?
Too early to make that kind of statement on McCutchen's D
The UZR data is tiny and he certainly has the speed to be a plus defender
minor league splits data says the same thing
I’m not basing it on UZR. In fact I didn’t even look at UZR when writing it and was hoping that his ‘09 UZR didn’t contradict so I’d have to make the same argument you are making now.
And I’ve always read he was mediocre in the field as well. Plus, he’s got a kind of weak arm.
TZR is inconsistent
I’m not really sure how accurate it is, but even if we assume that it is accurate, it isn’t a continued trend:
2006: +9
2007: +8
2008: +6
2009: -4
Goldstein
The Good: Despite middling numbers, scouts still project stardom for McCutchen based on his incredible tools. He’s a phenomenal athlete with a lightning bat that gives him at least average power potential despite a smallish frame. He’s a plus-plus runner with excellent range in center field and a solid arm, and a threat to steal a base every time he gets on. The Pirates love his work ethic and his drive to get better, citing the adjustments he made during the latter months of the season.
Emphasis mine.
Defense
I’ll take a wait-and-see approach on that… McCutchen’s got the talent to be an above average CF.
Offensively… McCutchen must have had a hot streak all year because he was the same guy in AAA (303/361/493) that he was in the majors (286/365/471). Scouts have always argued that the power was in there somewhere and it started to manifest itself last year. If you don’t believe in it, fine, but I wouldn’t bet against it continuing.
I’ll buy Adam Jones, although I have some reservations, but Rasmus wasn’t nearly the same player offensively in ’08 and ’09 that he was in ’07 and McCutchen badly outhit him last year. I need to see it to believe it at this point.
Other than the fact that he won a gold glove
Where’s the evidence that Jones is such a brilliant defender? Every defensive metric rated him average in CF, which is still pretty good, but not necessarily better than Cutch. Just more flashy.
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If you make the Longoria adjustment, we're pretty close
I’d move Butler out of there, though. I like him a lot, but positional value and some optimism would make me take Heyward, Strasburg, or Posey ahead of him. Hanson or Matusz probably, too.
Oh, duh,
I forgot about King Felix
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Jan 12, 2010 11:19 PM EST reply actions
Lincecum vs King Felix
That would be a good smackdown….maybe.
my top 10 under 25 pitchers
These are guys that will still be 25 when the season starts
Tim Lincecum-25
Felix Hernandez-24
Yovanni Gallardo-24
Clayton Kershaw-22
Chad Billingsley-25
Matt Cain-25
Jair Jurrjens-24
Tommy Hanson-23
Rick Porcello-21
John Danks-25
question
I wouldn’t question porcello being on the list at all. I wouldn’t have Jurrjens on it, and I’d definitely have Anderson on there. Billingsley seems high, though I’m not sure where I would put him. Danks, IMHO, is questionable also.
anderson
I actually had anderson at 11 and david price at 12. If your going with who i would rather have, these guys would be on the list, i was kind of going with what they have done so far.
Anderson should be on the list, but it's a solid one
I’d probably slot him ahead of Jurrjens for upside reasons. I’d probably have to put Strasburg in contention too.
my top 10 under 25 hitters
Same here, will still be 25 when season starts
Evan Longoria-24
Matt Kemp-25
Troy Tulowitzki-25
Ryan Zimmerman-25
Prince Fielder-25
Justin Upton-22
Pablo Sandoval-23
Adam Jones-24
Andrew McCutchen-23
Jay Bruce-23
re
I’d move Upton up to #2, Sandoval down a bit, and Bruce up to top 5.
?
So if longoria is one, and you have upton at 2. Who would you drop out of the top 5 to get Bruce in. I would take Kemp, Tulo and Zimmerman over Upton, probably fielder too. I can see making a case for Sandoval to be 10. Had wieters and couglan as my 11 and 12.
you all know more about this than I do, but...
I’d have something more along the lines of:
Evan Longoria-24
Justin Upton-22
Matt Kemp-25
Troy Tulowitzki-25
Jay Bruce-23
Ryan Zimmerman-25
Prince Fielder-25
Adam Jones-24
Andrew McCutchen-23
Pablo Sandoval-23
I think Tulo is where he is because of his position. Longo and Upton are interchangeable at 1-2, and the next 3 are fairly interchangeable. Of course, this is all just in my opinion.
Just a guess
But the 15 to 20 run advantage that Zimmerman has over in Upton in terms of defensive value probably has a lot to do with it.
Wow, way to be incredibly rude.
I’ll take a 22 year old superstar in the making right fielder, who in his first full season put up a 4.5 WAR, over a 25 year old injury prone third baseman who’s “amazing” defense fluctuates. He had a great fielding year in 2007 and 2009 but was average in his other 2+ years. I find it very hard to justify overlooking Justin Upton’s upside for Ryan Zimmerman, who had an uncharacteristically high HR/FB rate in his career year of 2009. Of course hitters have more control over HR/FB than pitchers, but it usually is fairly consistent over time and he had an 11.5% HR/FB for 3 consecutive years and then has a 16% in 2009. I think he is due for some regression. Although he is obviously a great player, I’m not sure you can really dispute the potential and production Upton has already displayed.
Ryan Zimmerman was 24 in 2009.
What you call “uncharacteristically high HR/FB rate in his career year”, most people would call development.
Wait what?
I wasn’t being rude at all, let alone incredibly rude. You asked someone else a question and since I can’t read that guys mind I made a guess as to what his argument would be. Seriously man, if you’re posting on the internet and you think that comment was rude you either need to grow some thicker skin or stop posting. I mean that in the least rude way possible. I tried answering your question, didn’t attack you, or really do anything at all and you’re going to get offended by it? Seriously?
Anyway, in response to your post, Zimmerman posted a 4.1 WAR in his first full season, and he was younger at the time then Upton was this past season (only about a month younger but still). We have no idea if his defense fluctuates or the numbers do because of simple variance, but its clear that Zimmerman is indeed an amazing fielder as his UZR/150 is 12.0 in almost 600 career games now and he’s never been any worse than 2 runs above average in any season (and he was hurt that year). Oh and what do you mean by saying he’s injury prone? Other than last year he’s never missed more than 5 games in a season.
Look, I never even said that I’d take Zimmerman over Upton. I was simply trying to explain why someone may like Zimmerman more. No one is disputing the potential or production Upton has. Some people may just feel that Zimmerman has produced far more so far (he has, including a 7+ WAR season this year at 24) and doesn’t lag that far behind in terms of potential because he doesn’t need to be nearly as good of a hitter as Upton to post a better WAR.
not to disagree with you
and i realize you didn’t intend it to be but I could see how your previous comment could be interpreted as kind of condescending.
Best
Top Pitcher: Felix… not really that close.
Top Hitter: Upton – prefer him to Longoria just based on the fact that I think he will be the best player in baseball after Pujols gets too old. His offensive upside + athleticism is downright scary.
Dummy
“prefer him to Longoria just based on the fact that I think he will be the best player in baseball after Pujols gets too old” – really, jc3? What I meant to say is that his athleticism & offensive upside eclipse any possible position advantage Longoria may have in my mind. Now, if you include contract, Longoria moves ahead, but I think we’re just talking about pure talent.
+1
he is already better and he’s 2 years younger. He had a higher ops last year and has much more speed. positional value is a wash/
Postional Value/Defense
How is it a wash? Longoria is a premier defensive third baseman while Upton is a good defensive right fielder.
Upton was a 4.5 WAR player last year, while Longoria was a 7.2 WAR player. Upton would have been closer if he hadn’t been injured, but the 19 game difference doesn’t make up that much ground.
positional value
what i mean is they play corner spots rather than “premium” defensive positions. If Upton was an above ave CFer or Longoria was a top notch SS it would create a greater disparity
It depends what you believe
If you believe fangraphs, third base is a premium position (I tend to think so). Their positional adjustments are:
Catcher: +12.5 runs (all are per 162 defensive games)
First Base: -12.5 runs
Second Base: +2.5 runs
Third Base: +2.5 runs
Shortstop: +7.5 runs
Left Field: -7.5 runs
Center Field: +2.5 runs
Right Field: -7.5 runs
Designated Hitter: -17.5 runs
re
i’ve always been partial to Bill James and he considers them somewhat a wash, but there are so many staticians today with so many theories and formulas so who knows
... not really
I’ve never seen a single serious scholar of the subject suggest that 3B and corner OF are equivalent. 3B is far more valuable. The plays involved are SO much more difficult to make.
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Shawn Spencer: "There’s no way I’m saying that."
Bill James
argues that it is about a wash. In different eras defense at 3b was a higher priority than it is today (in eras in which the bunt or hit and run were more prevelent).
and I highly doubt there is any statistic supporting the plays they make are SO much more difficult. That is completely subjective
haha
I actually can’t tell if you’re joking or not because you’re an Indians fan. Cabrera should be nowhere near this list.
Lincecum v Felix
For me, comes down to a time line. If we’re talking strictly next year, I take Lincecum. If I have to take whatever they produce over the next 5 years, then I take Felix. This actually has little to do with what I expect from their productivity. Lincecum’s delivery is so different that projecting him seems to be based on an awful lot of guesswork and hope. If one of my considerations has to be risk management, I would rather have the pitcher that we have comps on.
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