Arizona Diamondbacks Top 20 Prospects for 2010
by John Sickels on Jan 1, 2010 9:49 PM EST
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All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don't get too worried about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get beyond the Top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you want to emphasize. Complete reports on these and over 1,000 other players will be in the 2010 Baseball Prospect Book, now available for pre-order, shipping on February 2nd!
1) Jarrod Parker, RHP, Grade B-: Would be a B+/A- if not for Tommy John. My policy is to reduce the grade of anyone with TJ until we actually see how they recover. While not as risky as it used to be, it isn't a routine procedure by any means and not everyone recovers properly. That said, Parker is still Arizona's best prospect.
2) Bobby Borchering, 3B, Grade B-: Chipper Jones couldn't hit in rookie ball either. That said, his strike zone judgment was disturbingly bad at Missoula and there are still questions about his defense. Loads of potential but I'm going to be cautious until we get more data.
3) Brandon Allen, 1B, Grade B-: I like the guy, but he was probably overhyped this summer. I see him more as a productive slugger than a future All-Star. This is the same grade I gave him last year.
4) A.J. Pollock, OF, Grade B-: Good speed, good glove, average power. Like Allen, I can see him being a good regular but not a star.
5) Mike Belfiore, LHP, Grade B-: Intriguing combination of strikeouts and ground balls, and I like the athleticism as a former two-way college player. If it all comes together, could be a premier prospect a year from now.
6) Marc Krauss, OF, Grade B-: Very polished hitter who destroyed college pitching then hit .304 in the Midwest League. Not very toolsy, but he could move quickly through the system.
7) Ryan Wheeler, 1B, Grade B-: Loyola Marymount product crushed the Northwest League and looked great in late Midwest League action. Limited to first base defensively, but a year from now he could rank among the elite first base prospects in the game if he keeps hitting like this.
8) Chris Owings, SS, Grade C+: Scouts like him and he has better pure tools than Krauss or Wheeler, but doubts about his plate discipline and a possible move to second base knock his stock back slightly for me.
9) Cole Gillespie, OF, Grade C+: I don't know why this guy doesn't get more respect. He does a lot of things right...draws walks, has some power, can swipe a base, good defense at either corner.
10) Collin Cowgill, OF, Grade C+: Undersized outfielder, but like Gillespie he can do lot of different things on the field. . .has some pop, can steal, gets on base.
11) Matt Davidson, 3B, Grade C+: Overmatched in the Northwest League but he was very young for the level and scouts like his power potential. Will have to see how they fit Borchering and Davidson into the same lineup; I'm not sure either one of them can play third base long-term.
12) Wade Miley, LHP, Grade C+: Better prospect than his 4.00+ ERAs indicate. Gets grounders, decent strikeout rate, could break through with some minor adjustments.
13) David Nick, 2B, Grade C+: Another promising young hitter from the '09 draft, has some speed and pop, limited to second base.
14) Leyson Septimo, LHP, Grade C: Great arm from the left side, converted outfielder still working on his command.
15) Rusty Ryal, INF, Grade C: Older prospect age at 27, but if he gets enough playing time he could be a surprise factor in 2010.
16) Kevin Mulvey, RHP, Grade C: Stock has dropped, could be an inning-eater if he makes the rotation.
17) Bryan Augenstein, RHP, Grade C: Strike-throwing inning-eater type.
18) Barry Enright, RHP, Grade C: Strike-throwing inning-eater type.
19) Wes Roemer, RHP, Grade C: Strike-throwing inning-eater type.
20) Roque Mercedes, RHP, Grade C: Bullpen arm with good stuff, can he throw strikes?
OTHERS: (All Grade C): Scottie Allen, RHP; Keon Broxton, OF (great tools but very raw); Pedro Ciriaco, SS: Josh Collmenter, RHP; Kevin Eichhorn, RHP; Paul Goldschmidt, 1B; Trevor Harden, RHP; Matt Helm, 1B; John Hester, C; Zach Kroenke, LHP; Patrick McAnaney, LHP; Reynaldo Navarro, SS; Kyler Newby, RHP; Jordan Norberto, LHP; Rossmel Perez, C; Patrick schuster, LHP; Eric Smith, RHP; Dan Stange, RHP; Cedar Valdez, RHP.
You can take most of those Grade C guys and slot them in anywhere in the 14-20 range depending on what you want to emphasize. In this list I picked guys closer to the majors.
This system is obviously thin, although it could look much better a year from now if young hitters from the 2010 draft pan out as expected.
The only definite impact pitcher is Jarrod Parker, and until we know if he recovers from Tommy John successfully, I have to cut his grade back. After him, there is a large number of very similar strike-throwing inning-eater types. . Augenstein, Enright, Roemer, Mulvey, Collmenter, Harden, McAnaney, Valdez. Someone could emerge from that group but I don't know who. There are some relief arms with potential such as Mercedes, Septimo, and Stange, but all have command problems. Lefty Mike Belfiore from the 2009 draft has the potential to emerge as one of the better lefties in the minors in '10 and could separate himself from the pack once he gets more innings in. I also think Wade Miley could be pretty good.
Things look better on the hitting side, although even here there are some questions. Brandon Allen is the closest thing to being ready, but his major league time and Arizona Fall League struggles exposed some flaws. I think he's more a solid source of power than a future All-Star. Rusty Ryal is too old to be a premium prospect, but he could end up being a surprise in the majors this year. I like Cole Gillespie a lot as a sleeper prospect even if scouts don't seem to like him much.
The '09 draft brought in a bunch of intriguing hitting talent. Bobby Borchering has the best potential of the lot and looked like an awesome hitter in high school. He was pretty lousy in the Pioneer League (though he played better in the playoffs). We need to see more from him. Owings, Davidson, Nick, and Broxton all have strong potential but they also all have questionmarks. None of them are sure things by any means, and it is possible that most of them could bust. College hitters Krauss and Wheeler don't have the same physical upsides, but both had very strong debuts and could move through the system very quickly.
Overall, they really need to hope that the 2009 draft is as good as they say it is.
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Pollock
I think that’s a bit high for Pollock. I still don’t see what the great fascination is with him. Seems like a Brett Gardner/Sam Fuld/Reggie Willits type OF if he pans out – a useful player if he gets there, but at this point in his development, in Low A, coming off an inauspicious 255 AB start to his career, I’m not sure if that’s a B- level guy. I’d go C+ with him.
More power than the guys you mentioned...
I don’t think Eric Byrnes with a little less speed is a bad comp for him.
not sold that
his power will be much better than them but i guess we’ll have to wait and see.
I will honestly be stunned if he puts up the power (.182 ISO) that Byrnes has throughout his career.
He was a legit first round talent
I don’t like Pollock much, but let’s not go too far here. B- is a good grade.
feels to me like a
(nothing personal) “he’s a first round pick, so let’s give him a higher grade because of that”.
anyhow, only time will tell. i mean, this is how I’m looking at it. average to solid contact ability, slightly below to average (at best, imo) power, solid speed/baserunning instincts, good glove/range, average arm, average start to his pro career. Outside of first round status, I’m not sure what’s there to suggest that Pollock is higher than a C+ at the moment. I mean, he doesn’t have, say, Trevor Crowe’s walk rate from the lower levels. He doesn’t have much projection left. What you see is pretty much what you get, and that’s a guy that seems like, imo, based on skillset, a borderline CF starter if everything turns out well, otherwise a depth/AAA type OF.
i thought he was vastly overrated at draft time, but because of the draft, I thought it was probably fair that he was a first round pick. eh … not a big deal to me either way. i was simply glad that the cubs didn’t have a chance to draft him.
I think his hit tool is better than that. He’s certainly not a sexy prospect, but his tools are solid across the board (maybe a tick below with the power). If you lower him to a C+, you have to lower most of the B-’s in this write up.
Krauss is a poor defender and his future will be decided solely on his bat. Wheeler was a bit of a disappointment last year and certainly didn’t show much power in college. He’s stuck at first base and his only real plus is his plate discipline.
Wheeler a disappointment???
Wheeler is actually very athletic. He played some third base in college and looked good there in the instructional league as well. But even if you are convinced that he can only play first base, there was absolutely nothing disappointing about his 2009 season.
by BaseballEvolution on Jan 2, 2010 9:38 PM EST up reply actions
Last year as in his Junior season
Not his stint in the Northwest League. He hit .319/.427/.547 with 9 HRs; that’s not really what you want to see power wise out of a college first baseman.
He absolutely isn’t a third baseman. He may have had some time there, but he simply isn’t anything other than a first baseman in pro ball.
per BA:
Wheeler has dabbled as a third baseman, but his long-term home should be at first, where he projects as an average defender.
Don't get me wrong
I love Ryan Wheeler’s plate discipline, and thought he was a good selection. I just wouldn’t gloss over his negatives simply because he crushed the ball in the Northwest League
Professionally
His negative (singular) is that he’s limited to first. You don’t have to have a Brandon Allen 30 HR power ceiling or ISO over .200 to be a productive first baseman, just ask Sean Casey.
"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."
by Dan Strittmatter on Jan 3, 2010 2:39 AM EST up reply actions
If you go by his college numbers...
and BA’s year-old scouting report of him, he may not look fantastic. But since then he has had a better offensive season than just about any other player drafted this summer, been lauded as having the best swing in the Midwest League, and handled a move to third base well during instructs. It’s pretty hard to ignore that he has made some huge strides since his junior season and adjusted to the wood bat better than most. And there is no way that plate discipline is his only plus; his ability to hit for average may even be plus-plus.
by BaseballEvolution on Jan 3, 2010 12:30 PM EST up reply actions
Personally
In the final tally, I don’t think being a first rounder is an irrelevant data point. It is impossible to know everything about a player, and if a pro team thinks he’s worth a 1st round pick, you should bear that in mind.
+1
big overdraft IMO, especially when Gibson, Miller, Mitchell, Mier, etc, etc, were still on the board. I mean, even if the Dbacks were intent on drafting a “toolsie” college OFer in that spot, why not Jared Mitchell? Is there anyone that has Pollock ahead of Mitchell anywhere? Lets admit what Pollock was: a money saving pick at #17 after they took Borchering at #16. They knew Borchering would take them to the bank so they wanted to save a little with the next pick.
As far as tools go: Pollock’s hitting would be a 60-65, power 35-40, speed 65, defense 65, arm 35-40. That profile certainly does not fit the #17 pick of the draft. His CF defense was supposedly dissapointing at South Bend and his speed is only above average. Throw in a lack of power and he will be a 4th OFer
I obviously hate the selection, especially considering what was still on the board
I think
Whenever you look at AZ drafts, you have to take into account that they get skittish and jittery whenever they take a high school upside pick early in the draft. They needed to go back to their happy place and get a quick-rising college bat in Pollock. :-) Mitchell is more of a toolsy upside play, as you mentioned.
"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."
by Dan Strittmatter on Jan 2, 2010 4:14 PM EST up reply actions
Dbacks looked like a potential dynasty in the making 2 yrs ago
A core of upton, young, drew, etc. The dan haren trade looked like a final contending piece. They traded away valverde to recoup some of the lost depth. Made minor deals for yusmerio petit, trade problem child callaspo for billy buckner. Fast forward and someoftheiryoung playershaveshown flashes of greatness, but inconsistency. Reynolds huge breakout season. Players that at the time was considered untouchable in the dan haren trade: scherzer, young, owings, etc. Oakland had a choice between chris carter or emilio bonifacio in that trade. But right now, looks like their farm system is back in the upswing and a potentially very good trio of webb, haren, and jackson.
Really?
Chris Carter or Bonifacio? Darn Billy Beane and his good talent judgment skillz. I guarantee we don’t trade Carter for Jon Rauch if the A’s took Bonifacio.
"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."
by Dan Strittmatter on Jan 2, 2010 12:26 AM EST up reply actions
Why did the D'backs get rid of Scherzer?
Edwin Jackson really tailed off towards the end of ‘09 as Leyland let him throw too many pitches earlier. Unless the D’Backs view Scherzer as an injury risk b/c of his “violent” release mechanics, I don’t think Jackson is that big an upgrade over Scherzer. I thought Ian Kennedy was still a prospect. In that farm, he’d be top 10.
by Mizur29 on Jan 2, 2010 12:37 AM EST reply actions
Edwin Jackson is a big downgrade from Scherzer
The Diamondbacks have to be absolutely convinced that Scherzer is a reliever for the deal to make any sense.
They are
And the Verducci Rule agrees with them, as noted to me by a buddy at AZSnakePit, as well as below. Also, if you’ve watched him, do you see the recoil after the ball is thrown? Seriously, it’s awful.
Scherzer Innings Pitched in ’08 – 56 in the majors, 53 in the minors, AFL stint (109 + AFL work)
Scherzer Innings Pitched in ’09 – 170.1 in the majors, 4.2 in the minors (175)
Verducci Rule flags any young pitcher who makes an innings increase of 30. With the AFL work, Scherzer’s was probably more along the lower end of 40-50. And with the number of pitches he needs to throw to get through an inning, plus the TJ in HS, and constant shoulder problems in the minors, you have to be worried about that guy in 2010. Also, when you remove Jackson and Scherzer from the deal talent-wise, we get a guy who we feel is a #4 starter (Kennedy – and I trust Josh Byrnes when it comes to evaluating pitching, with the productive acquisitions of Livan, DD, Haren, et al) for a net cost of $3M or so (because Scherzer is not a minimum-salary player because of his contract/signing bonus) and Schlereth, instead of the absurd salaries being given to #4’s on the free agent market (around $7.5M). That freed us up to add Howry and Johnson, and I’d rather have them, Jackson, and Kennedy than Scherzer, Schlereth, and a gaping hole at the #4 rotation spot.
Also, Ian Kennedy is no longer a prospect, he’s passed the innings limit. :-P
"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."
by Dan Strittmatter on Jan 2, 2010 3:36 AM EST up reply actions
If the Verducci Rule is true even 50% of the time.
the A’s and Tigers are in some HUGE trouble, since they’re about to lose a bunch of their top young pitching talent to injury.
"I generally avoid temptation unless I can't resist it" ~ Mae West
I’m not sure I buy the Verducci Rule much…but, I too believe Scherzer is probably a RP long-term, and that it may have been wise to pull the trigger when they did. Jackson may never be as good as he was last year, but the transition to the NL won’t hurt his chances and I really like grabbing Ian Kennedy was pretty nice.
For as much as people are saying
That we bought high on EJ, we certainly bought low on Kennedy.
"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."
by Dan Strittmatter on Jan 2, 2010 4:16 PM EST up reply actions
Parker
You like Brett Jackson, Jay Jackson, and Hak-Ju Lee more than Parker?
by BrosbeforeShaincoes on Jan 2, 2010 2:14 AM EST reply actions
This.
Although, John did say it was because of the TJ surgery, and that if he were healthy, he’d be B+/A-, which would be higher than the levels of Parker. So his grade cut makes sense.
He’s undeniably a better prospect than both Jacksons and Lee IMO, but the grade drop makes sense.
"I generally avoid temptation unless I can't resist it" ~ Mae West
John usually says
you can’t compare hitters and pitchers grades.
injury
I meant what I wrote….he’s a B+/A- if not for the injury. Which means that he would be ahead of those guys if not for the injury. But the injury matters.
by John Sickels on Jan 2, 2010 10:43 AM EST up reply actions
Ya I understand your logic
But I think you are downgrading him too severely. As you say Tommy John surgery isn’t that big of a deal anymore. The risk that a player doesn’t come back is really low. Now I don’t argue that he should be downgraded- he will lose all of 2010 and it may take a year to get his control back- but long-term it seems that Tommy John is more of a speed bump or a detour rather than a roadblock. I think a B would make sense.
by BrosbeforeShaincoes on Jan 2, 2010 11:15 AM EST up reply actions
deal
No, I think that it IS a big deal….a grade cut of this magnitude is my standard procedure for TJ cases.
Having Jarrod Parker
In Reno or even the major-league rotation in 2010 is a lot different than having Jarrod Parker in Reno in 2011 regaining his control, with a chance that it never comes back…
"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."
by Dan Strittmatter on Jan 2, 2010 5:13 PM EST up reply actions
My thoughts exactly
Cole Gillespie […] I don’t know why this guy doesn’t get more respect.
The start of the year he had a wrist injury, which is why he started in Hi-A, but even before it was perfectly healthy he was back up to AAA because he still demolished Hi-A in every respect. BABIP and that injury hampered him a bit in the Milwaukee system, and while Reno is hitter-friendly, I don’t think it’s quite as much of a factor as everyone seems to think. AFL went well for Gillespie, too.
"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."
by Dan Strittmatter on Jan 2, 2010 3:25 AM EST reply actions
Agreed
I’ve been a Gillespie fan for awhile. I think he gets overlooked by some because he doesn’t have a stand out tool, he’s good at everything, but not great at anything. Seems like he should be a successful yet unspectacular player for a good while.
RIP Nick Adenhart
I don't know
He looks like one of those best-case-scenario-is-Rusty-Greer type of guys, who never end up as Rusty Greer (or Eric Byrnes). Not a bad guy to have in yr system as a replacement to stash at AAA, or to shuttle b/w the majors and AAA, but it seems that only a fraction of these guys end up in the everyday lineup. I think it’d make all the difference in the world if he could play an average CF, but do you really want to pencil in an unproven guy in the corner OF spots who doesn’t have a standout tool? It seems those type of guys start out in CF for a few years, establish themselves as hitters, and eventually move to the corner as they creep t/w 30 (and then leave the game four or so years later).
Tony Abreu
What kind of value does he have now that he’s in AZ? Kelly Johnson just got signed, but I’m still not convinced he plays everyday.
KJ plays everyday 2B
Our FO is in love with him, and all indications and projections suggest he’s a solid 2 WAR 2B. Abreu will either be a utility infielder, possibly a platoon at third if we really shift things up and move Mark to 1B (been bandied about amidst our bored AZSnakePit discussions of how this MIF glut will be sorted out), or be in AAA since he has options left if we keep Ojeda. If we can find someone willing to give us value for Ojeda because of his defensive value (I imagine we’ll want prospects), then we’ll have Abreu in a backup role for 2B, SS, and 3B. Definitely will be a full-time starter in 2011, possibly at SS if we move Drew because of arbitration.
"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."
by Dan Strittmatter on Jan 2, 2010 5:11 PM EST up reply actions
abreu at SS
i feel bad for your defense if abrue has to play short
He's been solid there
In his minor-league career. Not as great as he’s been at second, but he certainly has the capability to play there. And his bat there would be nice.
"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."
by Dan Strittmatter on Jan 2, 2010 5:17 PM EST up reply actions
Of course
I should mention that it’s been a 53 game SS career for Abreu, so who knows how that sticks over a season’s worth of games there in the majors.
"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."
by Dan Strittmatter on Jan 2, 2010 5:18 PM EST up reply actions
Brandon Allen
What’s his ceiling perceived to be now? He’s still pretty athletic for his size. 25-30HR power with a chance for 35+? Could he be Mark Reynolds with less speed?
Chicks Dig The Long Ball.
I'd say 30
Anything above that and you’re probably over-hyping the Reno outburst. A great piece to have, and I’d rather have Allen than Tony Pena, to be sure (especially with our now chock-full bullpen).
"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."
by Dan Strittmatter on Jan 3, 2010 2:31 AM EST up reply actions
Trevor Harden is top 100 player this time next year.
Though I understand the current grade and ranking.
His Visalia K-Rate
Leaves a little to be desired. But the Cal League certainly isn’t exactly friendly to pitchers.
"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."
by Dan Strittmatter on Jan 3, 2010 1:33 PM EST up reply actions
I'm mostly wondering
Where Ollie Linton fits in. Is he just a C-? Stolen base threat, good CF defense, OPS close to .800 (.395 OBP). Sounds like a good lead-off prospect to me.
"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."
by Dan Strittmatter on Jan 3, 2010 1:35 PM EST reply actions
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