Bumgarner up?!?
by JD Sussman on Sep 8, 2009 6:26 PM EDT
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UPDATE: Bumgarner to start tonight for Lincecum?
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Henry Schulman reporting from the ballpark: I want to stress that I have not confirmed this directly, but I'm getting a strong vibe that Madison Bumgarner is being promoted so he can start tonight's game in favor of Tim Lincecum, who presumably cannot start because he is hurt. I've been told that manager Bruce Bochy is going to make an announcement at 3:45 p.m., when the clubhouse opens to the media, which is very unusual. He normally talks around 4:30. I'll update as soon as possible:
Madison Bumgarner, the Giants' best pitching prospect, is being called up to the majors today.
If it was a surprise catcher Buster Posey got a September promotion, this is even more of a stunner considering Bumgarner is two years out of high school. He was the 10th overall pick in the 2007 draft.
The Giants might want to see how Bumgarner handles himself this month because he might be a candidate for a rotation spot next year.
At Double-A Connecticut, the lefty was 9-1 with a 1.93 ERA in 107 innings, striking out 69 and walking 30.
He opened the year with Single-A San Jose and was 3-1 with a 1.48 ERA in five starts.
Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/giants/detail?blogid=22&entry_id=47109#ixzz0QYZYbBIK
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Hmm....
Is there any reason to believe this is a good idea?
Yes
He’s essentially facing a AAA lineup in San Diego
And he struggled in AA
It’s a dumb idea.
Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at a position to be determined.
@#$% Juan Uribe. Dios es grande.
Struggled?
Stuggling with a sub 2 ERA and a decent K/BB ratio. I think most teams would take that type of stuggling.
by Mistermidgetman on Sep 8, 2009 8:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Taken from BCB:
Year Level IP K/9 BB/9 FIP 2008 A 141.2 10.42 1.33 1.71 2009 A+ 24.1 8.51 1.48 2.05 2009 AA 107 5.8 2.52 3.56
Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at a position to be determined.
@#$% Juan Uribe. Dios es grande.
3.56 FIP isn't precisely struggling
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on Sep 9, 2009 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions
It is struggling because it is not what was expected of him. The strikeouts disappeared and his walk rate went from stellar to merely good.
Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at a position to be determined.
@#$% Juan Uribe. Dios es grande.
No it isn't struggling
That would be like saying Barry Bonds was stuggling with his power in 2002 because he only hit 46 homers and he hit 73 the year before.
Just because Bumgarner’s stats from last year were amazing and he hasn’t matched doesn’t mean he is stuggling.
If you want to say you don’t like him because his velocity is way down, that’s ok. But he sure as hell didn’t struggle in the minors.
5.8 K/9 in AA is struggling, sorry. And his strikeout rate got worse as the season went on.
Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at a position to be determined.
@#$% Juan Uribe. Dios es grande.
he has averaged less then 5 ks per 9 innings
the last 2 months…
LOL
Strikeouts aren’t everything. The guy has an era under 2.00 in AA. His FIP is still an impressive 3.56. Those aren’t bad things for a 20 year old.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Sep 9, 2009 9:56 PM EDT up reply actions
No
Diminished velocity, lack of offspeed stuff… pretty hard to argue those aren’t bad things. Particularly now that we have hard evidence (none of this business about “sitting” at x mph or “touching” y) that his velocity is below 90 MPH right now.
Also, I’m fairly sure that strikeouts are more important and more predictive for minor leaguers than FIP is. Maybe if you replace FIP with xFIP, you’ll start getting somewhere.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Feel free to read above
And use something other than ERA.
Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at a position to be determined.
@#$% Juan Uribe. Dios es grande.
marcello: that still isn’t struggling, and you should know that. Less dominant, certainly. But not struggling.
Prospective parent of new pick, Zack Wheeler. Projectable Righty stolen from the braves. Of course, I stalk my son's myspace: http://www.myspace.com/zackwheelerbaseball
"Obviously I’m not doing things like going toe-to-toe with a ninja. Find me a ninja, for one."--Brian Wilson
Considering he was a top 5/10 prospect coming into the season, yes, it is struggling. Those just aren’t impressive numbers and the strikeout rate is particularly troubling.
Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at a position to be determined.
@#$% Juan Uribe. Dios es grande.
I'm confused
What does his performance now have to do with what people thought of him before the season? Are you trying to suggest that if he had been a 5th round pick with a mediocre debut in full season ball last year, this year would actually be a huge success, but because he was highly touted last year, we should be concerned?
Well, since he was a first round pick and a top 5 – 10 prospect, with his performance this year he probably is down below that. That’s why it is struggling.
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
Kevin Frandsen, come back!
uh, yes?
He’s an excellent pitching prospect. This might be a little ahead of schedule, but it isn’t going to kill him . . .and he probably stands to benefit from the experience. Once Lincecum is healthy, they can stick Bumgarner in the pen if they want and let him get a few extra innings against MLB hitters.
Sabean and Bochy need to go. Sabean for calling up Bumgarner and Bochy for refusing to play Posey. Just an epic level tag team of stupid.
Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at a position to be determined.
@#$% Juan Uribe. Dios es grande.
could somebody explain to me
how arbitration clocks work? and does this start his?
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
If I understand correctly...
…this promotion will likely burn one of his option years. Assuming he doesn’t start 2010 on the major league roster, next year will be his first option year, and he’ll have two more after that where he can be shuttled back and forth between the majors and minors.
As far as arbitration goes… this does start his arbitration clock, but if we assume he’ll probably be in the Giants rotation in 2011, this service time will only affect him if he comes up within the first month and a half to two months of next season (in which case he’d be a good bet to merit Super Two status after 2012).
Anyone, feel free to correct me if I’m wrong here.
could you possibly explain super2?
i feel as though i should know all of this…
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
I think you just misspoke
But this promotion will NOT burn an option year so next year will be his first of three option years
Assuming he starts next year in the minors as long as he is not called up within the first 6 weeks of the season he will not end next year with a full year of service time. If hes called up before probably mid-late June then he should be Super 2 safe.
For the guy above who wants to know about Super 2. Every day on the active roster you accrue a day of service time. A full year is something like 163 or 170 days (someone will need to correct that point of this). Normal salary arbitration doesn’t start until you finish a season with 3 or more years of service time accrued. However, if you are in the top 17% of service time between 2 and 3 years and were in the majors for at least 86 days the previous season you qualify as Super 2 and thus get 4 years of salary arbitration before free agency.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
172 days is considered a full year
Also, if you spend less than 20 days of a given year in the minors, you will be credited with a full year of time for that season.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
ahhhh
wowzers
Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Sep 8, 2009 8:18 PM EDT reply actions
General LOLager Sabean strikes again
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
beyond strange to me is
personally i’m pretty excited to watch him pitch….but i don’t get how they have not gotten posey in for any ab’s yet but they will have bumgarner start. Callis and Law chats have made it seem like Posey is the second best hitter on the team right now but yet in a game like yesterday where 1) at home 2) comfortable lead 3) late inn pinch hit available but yet he didn’t get the call. in milwaukee there was a few times he could have gone in, including an 11 inning game, where the bench got drained for pinch hitters, but yet nothing.
i hope he makes an appearance tonight.
am i wrong
or does he usually reach mid to high 90s?
88, 88, 89, 88, 82 (CH), 87 ground out
89, 88 home run
90!!!!, 89, 78 (SL) ground out
90!!!!, 80 (SL) single
78 (SL), 88 ground out
baseball rules.
HMMM a major loss of velocity
better develope better offspeed or he’s Chris George the 2nd.
2001 Sickles top 50, look at 35
35. Chris George, LHP: Lost velocity and command
Does that sound familar or what?
No, it doesn't.
The guy you’re talking about had relatively mediocre component statistics even in his best minor league campaigns and didn’t have very much margin for error in the first place. His production wasn’t anywhere near what Bumgarner has done over the last couple of years, at a younger age at the same levels no less.
I think people are missing two critical facts here. 1) Bumgarner is really young with lots of room to fill out and as long as he’s not overworked, fluctuations in his velocity are to be expected as he reaches a comfort level – we won’t know what his true velocity will be until he’s 22-23, at least and 2) a southpaw pitcher throwing 88-90 is still pretty decent. A 20 year old lefty with a major league fastball and undeveloped secondary pitches is still an awfully good prospect, especially when he’s put up great numbers. Comparing him to always-fringy Chris George – who basically couldn’t afford to lose anything off of what he had to even be a passable major league pitcher – is just bad. Bumgarner’s margin for error was pretty substantial, actually – even if he lost a grade or two on his fastball, it was still better than what a lot of pitchers could offer.
2001 Sickles top 50, look at 35 more
35. Lost his fastball, Quadruple-A pitcher.
George's main reason for failure wasn't the loss of fastball,
He was considered to be a mixture of Glavine and Maddux. The loss of command was the worst thing for him. He just couldn’t paint corners anymore. He wasn’t wild, but it was his plus command that made him a top prospect.
"When Justin Upton faces Lincecum, I think Christ might appear in the heavens, and the world will end." -JakeFree
there has got to be a reason
for the loss of velocity. has he been overworked?
No there doesn't. It happens all the time.
Tools Whore
it happens
but there is a reason. May not be an injury. I get what you mean, but there’s a reason.
bumgarner
is randy wolf without a bug curve…
not what i expected
he is a big kid for sure, but he has a slow and long delivery. his fastball doesn’t seem explode on hitters either.
compared to 2 other LH debuts this season, anderson and holland, bumgarner would be a distant 3rd, stuff wise. this concludes my incredibly ridiculous comparison due to this being his first start.
Offspeed
His slider looked a little bit better in the third than it did in the previous 2 innings. Overall, his stuff looks rather underwhelming. He has been getting a decent amount of ground balls at least.
what has bumgarners velocity been in the last few innings.??
has it got better then the 88 to 90?
positives
good release, hitters having some trouble.
very good poise
a good glove he made a couple of nice plays.
negatives
avarage at best secondary offerings
i thought he threw harder than that
I was at the game.
The stadium gun confirmed the TV readings; MadBum rarely even hit 90 tonight. His breaking stuff looked pretty average while his fastball, obviously, wasn’t anything special. If that’s all he’s got the rest of the way, major league hitters are going to figure him out pretty soon.
The kid needs to get his velocity back, strikeout more batters, and work on his offspeed stuff. Needless to say, I think he definitely needs more MiLB time.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
What's to figure out?
According to many observers all he has is an 88mph straight fastball. Unlike many posters I think Madbum acquitted himself quite nicely last night. I, for one, was very impressed.
P.S. When his fastball spikes back to the mid 90’s he’s going to be a force. Another thing, did you happen to see the curve he threw to AdGon (I forget what inning it was) that started at his right shoulder and ended up at his knee caps? My point is that his secondary stuff definitely has potential.
I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?
by the pinstripes on Sep 9, 2009 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions
You were impressed?
By what? An 88 MPH fastball? One good curveball? He pitched with bad stuff and got relatively good results (probably because he was facing the Padres and because they had never seen him before). If last night was all he had, he’s going to get crushed if he continues to start.
What’s to figure out? Uh…
The kid needs to get his velocity back, strikeout more batters, and work on his offspeed stuff.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Sep 10, 2009 1:13 AM EDT up reply actions
yes, i am impressed!
A 20 year old kid who’s essentially dominated every minor league level goes out against an MLB team (I don’t care who it is) and performs very well is impressive. period.
Does his secondary stuff need work? absolutely. everyone agrees on that but it does show potential.
Is the velocity decrease an issue? yes, but i’m of the belief that he has a tired arm. it happens. just ask justin verlander circa 2008. in other words, i believe it’s a temporary issue that will resolve itself to the point where he’ll be back in the low to mid 90’s.
the good points: poise, very good command especially for a lefty which is usually a struggle early in their careers.
now, if his fastball remains at 88 forever and ever then we have a problem but i think it’s way too early to go crazy on a 20 yr. old who has logged a lot of innings and has jumped as many levels as he has. the guy is still savvy enough to get outs with the decrease in velo, a straight fastball and sucky secondary stuff. how good will he be when it comes back and his offspeed stuff improves?
I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?
by the pinstripes on Sep 10, 2009 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Verlander
He lost 1.2 MPH of average fastball velocity from 2007 to 2008. That’s not nearly as drastic as Bumgarner’s reported “93 to 95, touching 97” dropping down to 88 touching 90.
i'm astonished to hear that
…. because i watched him quite a bit last year and his fastball was nothing like it is this year. he worked frequently in the 92-93 range with not much explosiveness at all.
my point being he is an entirely diff. pitcher this yr. no doubt about it.
I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?
by the pinstripes on Sep 10, 2009 7:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Comp
Andy Pettitte
Or is Kendry perhaps the one who needs to sit?
How people rate him higher than Hellickson at this point baffles me.
by rglass44 on Sep 9, 2009 11:48 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I asked someone last night
What the difference between Bumgarner and Hellickson was and basically they said if Hellickson had a healthier career thus far they would take Hellickson over Bumgarner. Can’t say I disagree with them.
Shed some light
in 2007, when Hellickson pitched in the SALeague- who is a terrific prospect – he turned 20 in April of that year, still 4 months older than Bumgarner is now. Hellickson was outstanding! He had 111.1 Ip – 87 Hits – 34 BB- and 106 K’s – and gave up 7 homers.
Bumgarner DEBUTED in the SALeague (this was Hellickson’s second full-season and a cup of a third). Ther amazing Mad-Bum had 30 more innings- gave up 24 more hits- walked 13 LESS hitters- and gave up 4 LESS homers.
He did this, mind you throwing ALL 88 mph fastballs! Displaying the greatest fastball location and movement the game has ever seen- or at least some would have you believe this.
In all seriousness though, Hellcickson has developed into a pretty damn good prospect but given that he ACTUALLY struggled a tad in his debut in AA in 2008 (3.94 ERA, 15 HRS in 75.1 IP) and Bumgarner has the best ERA AND HAS ALLOWED THE LEAST BASERUNNERS PER INNING OF ANY PITCHER IN THE EASTERN LEAGUE DESPITE BEING THE YOUNGEST OF ALL THE TOP PITCHERS IN THE LEAGUE- or something like that, you know “little things” like that.
I think it’s plenty reasonable to believe, maybe even assume, that Mr. Bumgarner might be a pretty damned good AAA pitcher liike Hellickson in two years when he will still be younger than him and will have two more years to develop his pitches. Shit, what am I talking about, madison is already in the big leagues!
Rec'd
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Anybody else feel
like they definitely were not watching the best pitching prospect in the minors last night? No doubt it was small sample size, and I’m sure Bumgarner still has loads of potential but I can’t say I was impressed..
Who loves orange soda?
Watch again
I felt like I was. I felt like there was NOBODY who was the same age or close who will be or was as good of a pitcher as I was watching last night. Rick Porcello maybe- and he’s great as well obviously.
So, I take it you've never seen Brett Anderson or Clayton Kershaw pitch in your life, then?
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
I've heard of em' PT
I’ve even seen em’! :-) Kershaw is 17 months older than MB and Anderson is 18 months older- not that it matters but I was talking about CURRENT prospects, though I did give you a loophole by saying “..or close”.
In either case, for the record if anybody is scoring, 17 months ago I would have ranked Kershaw higher than Madison Bumgarner as a prospect (especially knowing what I know now- lol). 18 months ago I would have told you that Anderson was not as good in the Cal League as Bumgarner was, nor better in AA. I have no problem ranking Bumgarner as a better prospect than Anderson now.
Well. mayne NOW I’d have a LIOTTLE hesitation with Anderson showing what he has shown but I’d be comfortable taking Bumgarner over Anderson if I had to pick one.
well
anderson= NAsty slider and with the increse velocity ( 94- 96) he’s on another level.
kershaw = velocity ( 93- 95) with the Nastiest curve
i really hope bumgarner get the velocity back and develop those secondary options, because right now he’s not even close to those two guys imho
by hirambocachica on Sep 10, 2009 12:42 AM EDT up reply actions
OK
I now know to ignore any further opinions which you proffer with respect to pitching prospects, because you clearly have no clue what you’re talking about.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Okay!
I like Brett Anderson WAY better than Bumgarner now! Do I have your approval now Paul Thomas? Please pay attention to me! Please??
Why the fuck would I give a SHIT if you ignore me or not? What are we 3 years old?
Can’t I just take a risk and like Bumgarner over Anderson? What the fuck is it to you?
I LOL'ed at this post.
Anderson’s velocity this year what Bumgarner HOPES to get back up to. Anderson’s slider is the best in the majors this year, among starters (at 18.5 runs above average according to Pitch F/x). Anderson has a K/9 of 7.42 in the majors compared to Bumgarner’s 5.8 in AA. And Anderson never had a K/9 under 9 in any of his minor league years.
You can take Bumgarner over Anderson right now sure, but you’d be preferring a pitcher who is vastly inferior in nearly every aspect of the game.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Sep 10, 2009 1:06 AM EDT up reply actions
Okay
I’ll agree with you. Lets say he’s better- okay- he’s VASTLY SUPERIOR
Can YOU just answer me one question? I admit Anderson is vastly superior now. I just want to know one thing then because I find it kinda puzzling…
If Andersons stuff is way better why doesn’t it translate into him getting more people OUT at every level even though he’s about a year older at every level?
Because he's been less lucky than Bumgarner
Is that really that difficult for you to understand?
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Not only
Do I not understand it- I also don’t believe it.
I expected you to say something more interesting actually, because I do listen to and repect your posts. Something like Anderson has developed further so now his minor league numbers don’t matter.
I seriously doubt that Bumgarners sucess this year- which I presume you are talking about- has anything to do with luck and certainly doesn’t explain last year.
The question I have for you is why do you think that if Bumgarner spent another season in the minors, lets say (not that he needs it, just that he’d then be the same age as Anderson) that he isn’t on track to be just as good of a pitcher?
Why is that so hard for you to understand when it is plainly obvious?
In AA
.241 BABIP and a 3.5% HR/FB. That’s a good deal of luck.
Last year, he struck out everyone and walked no one, that’s why he was successful. He had a little bit of luck on HR’s, but he mostly earned last years numbers.
Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at a position to be determined.
@#$% Juan Uribe. Dios es grande.
Whoops forgot one point
Why is that so hard for you to understand when it is plainly obvious?
Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at a position to be determined.
@#$% Juan Uribe. Dios es grande.
BUM
You can say that his numbers INDICATE that he was lucky but you can’t say that he WAS lucky. I still highly doubt that Bumgarner leading his league in ERA and WHIP has while being the youngest qualifier innings-wise has has much to do with luck.
Then again, no stats will convince me of that and we don’t have to worry for long- next year we’ll see if he stays “lucky”
I still highly doubt that Bumgarner leading his league in ERA and WHIP has while being the youngest qualifier innings-wise has has much to do with luck.
Well, obviously, you’ve decided on a conclusion before looking at the evidence.
Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at a position to be determined.
@#$% Juan Uribe. Dios es grande.
Well, maybe I did
,,,call me old fashioned but, I suppose I count his actual pitching record as a bit of evidence,
We;ll bever really know how lucky he was. I guess time will tell but, even then we won’t know for sure.
We’ll never know if the earth is flat or not, but that’s the way my pappy taught it, so I’m going to stick with that. And even when you show me evidence to the contrary, I’ll still never know, because of my pappy.
Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at a position to be determined.
@#$% Juan Uribe. Dios es grande.
Well, whatever
I like and enjoy evidence and am slayed by it daily but, I could turn it around on you and say that the PREPONDERANCE of evidence says that Bumgarner is simply excellent and YOU are ignoring THAT. Maybe, because your pappy told you to focus on K-rate, or BABIP, or temporary velocity issues.
woahhhh
what impressed you so much about a lefty throwing 88 with bad secondary stuff.?
do you like his name? his minor league ERA?
Read today's Daily Dish on BA
To summarize their article, Bumgarner has been the best pitcher in the minor leagues and it is not even close. I agree and believe he is easily the top pitching prospect in the minor’s and no other pitcher has come close to what he has accomplished.
The Strikouts
What the folks got was a steady stream of fastballs between 88 and 90 mph – 51 out of his 76 pitches, the rest sliders, cutters and a rare changeup. The Internetsia suggested this was a sign of arm-weariness, as he consistently hit 93-94 in the minors, but Sabean said it was in fact more a matter of San Jose pitching coach Ross Grimsley trying to force a more economical approach on Bumgarner. “He was getting a little fastball-happy,” Sabean said, talking about his reduced velocity, “and we just wanted him to stop trying to strike everyone out.”
Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/09/08/SPTB19KBRD.DTL#ixzz0Qe71YbHZ
I’ve heard several people on here desribe his drop in k’s as “baffling” or “inexlicable” so I thought maybe this might be interesting to you. You can say Sabean is a liar if you still want call the drop in K’s those things but if you want a logical explination- there it is folks- in black and white!
Bumgarner also admitted he was tired in the article on him on MLB.com.
I, for one, was THOUROUGHLY impressed with his first start. He showed amazing poise for a a pitcher making his first start on short notice, especially one who just turned 20. I though the fastball showed a LOT of movement and his location was spot-on. The slider was better than had been advertised and he even showed a decent change.
What is ironic to me with all the rampant Bumgarner-hating going on around here is he really by all rights should be an under-the- radar type pitcher like Pettitte or Glavine or other EXCELLENT lefties that have come up instead of the hyped super-prospect that he has been. I think its awesome that so many don’t believe in him when he is plainly a great young pitcher. I hope the guy who owns him in my Diamond Mind league feels the same way! i doubt it though, he’s a smart guy :-) The kid is really going to be special! After an off-season of much deserved rest and a couple months of dominating AAA – watch out next year!
Hello everyone!
After a long hiatus I’m glad to say I’m back. That’s what 6 fantasy leagues and a new baby will do to ya! ….
Casejud, I watched Bumgarner last night and agree with everything you said 100%. I’m not going to waste my time or anyone else’s reiterating what you so eloquently wrote but everyone needs to sit back and relax. I’m glad to see this site hasn’t changed from the same knee jerk commentary as when I was last on … :-)
P.S. I’m about to start reading the KingBilly/Dewey Finn faceoffs. That should be interesting!
I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?
by the pinstripes on Sep 9, 2009 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Good to have you back buddy!!!
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Sep 9, 2009 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks!
We need to do our annual top 200! I’d also like to do a bunch of similar pieces like I did last yr. on the top position players. I think I did a top 50 starters list. Maybe we could re-visit the one I did and see how I faired. At any rate, once the season ends I’ll have some time on my hands.
I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?
by the pinstripes on Sep 9, 2009 8:42 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm down
I will be starting up the top 150-200 list once the minor league season ends. It will be great to have your help again because last year it seemed that the top 150 list caused me more headaches then my rounds of chemotherapy! ;)
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Sep 10, 2009 7:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Brian Sabean is completely full of shit because Bumgarner was having NO trouble going deep into games when he was throwing hard and striking everyone out. It wasn’t as though he was doing that and giving up a ton of walks. His IP/start has gone DOWN this season.
Bumgarner himself said that he’s throwing exactly the same as he used to and less is coming out. I’m pretty sure I’d believe him before I believed Sabean about some bullshit “pitching to contact” thing. Wouldn’t pitching to contact itself be a lot more effective if you were doing it at 93-95?
I still think Bumgarner is a great prospect and I’m not overly concerned about the drop in velocity … yet. If it’s not back by next year, then I’ll be pretty concerned. If it doesn’t come back, there’s no way he’ll ever be a #1-2 starter, unless he can somehow advance his offspeed pitches a ton. He threw a few nice ones the other night, but he’s going to need to get a lot more consistent with them to be a major league pitcher in the longterm if his velocity doesn’t come back.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"AT LAST I AM A PARENTS." - Buster
I agree I was rather impressed by his start....
The Brian Fuentes comp is interesting
but I could see Madison as #2 starter behind Lincecum for much of 2010 and all of 2011 any maybe beyond…. I think he is the real deal….
question is do they keep Matt Cain ? or Finally give in to dealing him (I Que Twins *cough)
Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Sep 9, 2009 5:40 PM EDT reply actions
I'm confused
It seems like Bumgarner has put together a very good season, but since he apparently has lost some stuff [due to whatever], he suddenly isn’t as good as other guys or won’t be as good as the outlook was, at the beginning of the year.
Are the so-called prospect ‘experts’ merely nitpicking or is there something Bumgarner is missing that maybe cause for concern?
Or is Kendry perhaps the one who needs to sit?
Experts are nitpicking
or as I say, not seeing the forest (His obvious great talent, which never had much to do with fastball velocity) for the esoteric sabermetric trees (Focusing on one number, his AA Strikouts- or another, his fastball number) in the face of a MOUNTAIN of other evidence that he is a freaking OUTSTANDING pitching prospect.
I still have him behind Strasburg, Heyward, and maybe Stanton as the 4th best prospect.
How are they nitpicking?
Its a simple fact that an 88-90mph fastball with average movement and decent at best secondary stuff isn’t going to fly if you are looking at him as an elite pitcher. Whether or not he regains his velocity has yet to be seen, and until then there is most certainly legit reasons to worry. Will he be terrible if he remains as he is? Probably not, but he most certainly wont be a #1 starter which his prospect status had once predicted.
Were they also nitpicking when Brandon Wood started showing signs of being nowhere near as good as he was supposed to be? He’s still mashing it up in the minors but has yet to have any MLB success at all. It happens, sometimes minor league success just doesn’t translate.
Wait
you mean the Brandon Wood who has 209 AB’s in the bigs spread over 3 years? I’m not a big Brandon Wood mark myself, but good lord let the guy have an actual chance in the bigs before we start saying he hasn’t had any success or that his minor league success won’t translate.
As for Bumgarner, it seems that the fashionable thing now is to dump on him because his velocity is down and he didn’t post video game numbers in AA. I have quite a few problems with that. Let’s start with the fact that he didn’t get his prospect rating solely on his fastball, but the fact that he had a plus fastball and secondary stuff that was expected to become above average or better. So do you think his secondary stuff has peaked at age 20 and his drop in velocity is permanent? If not, he still has the same potential he had 6 months ago right? He’s still a 20 year old kid who more than held his own in AA, a league he was very young for. Is he ready to stick in the bigs right now? No, I don’t believe he is, but what exactly would another year(or two) in the minors hurt him?
He’s 20 years old, far from a finished product, no? The people who are jumping off the bandwagon now, did you do the same with Phil Hughes? How about Clay Buchholz? Just because a pitcher is highly regarded at a young age doesn’t meant they will dominate from the word go. It also doesn’t mean because they don’t dominate out of the gate that they can’t fulfill their potential. We’ve got a couple of prime examples right now in Hughes and Buchhloz, guys who didn’t come out and decimate the bigs right off, but both are pitching very well now. How about David Price? He hasn’t been what was expected right? Matt Wieters?
Yes, with Bumgarner we do have the decreased velocity, but like I said above unless you believe he will not recover the low to mid 90’s heat and you don’t think his secondary pitches improve at all, I don’t see how you can drop him too much. All of the potential is still there, and he’s plenty young enough to still realize it.
RIP Nick Adenhart
OMG to the MadBum appoligists
Casejud, pinstripes and whoever else is hanging on Bum’s jock strap.
You can not tell me that people that are worried about the drop (big drop) in Bum’s velo, K/9, even worse (in their eyes) secondary offerings than advertised, is not a legitimate/justified reason to drop him a few notches in the value/prospect rankings. I did not hear anyone say they were completely writing him off, just that he’s dropped some (rightfully so). You guys are the only ones exaggerating what everyone else has said to try and make them so bad, that you disregard their points.
Casejud, that article you posted, is it that they told him to throw softer cause they don’t want him to K everyone (this is just stupid) or that he’s fatigued (like he said in his MLB.com article)? Seems to me like some people (SF Gnats) are trying to hide something.
For the record, I would to have Bum myself, but he obviously would have me worried and lost value since last year/since the season started. I’d be dumb to think otherwise.
And to whoever said he should still have the same value as before, you’re kidding yourself. Of course he does have the same value as before and possibly even the potential as before (for reasons already stated, but i guess need to be stated again). The loss in velo is huge, it is never a good thing when you have a drop in velo, 1st impressions of secondary offerings are worse than advertised. These things change everything.
I’m not say he won’t get his velo back or can not improve his secondary stuff, just saying it’s def worth worrying about.
I said
“I don’t see how you can drop him too much”, which depending on where you ranked him originally would probably leave him in the top 20 or so. I probably should have specified, but I was referring more to posts saying that Bumgarner “is still a top 50 prospect”, which means he’s dropped 35-45 spots depending on original ranking. That seems a bit ridiculous to me, and that’s what I’m talking about.
Velocity doesn’t just disappear for no reason. Now, I do believe it’s possible that the Giants might be hiding something(as you allude to above) and that Bumgarner might have some undisclosed injury, or that he is hiding an injury from the team. That’s just a guess, and until I hear for sure that he’s hurt and the severity of that injury, I can’t begin to speculate how that might effect his value. I’ve asked more than once and in more than one thread here about Bumgarner’s velocity. Was it down all year? The first time I remember hearing about it was a first hand report here from mid to late July. It could be the kid has a tired arm and should have been shut down. My point is we don’t know at this point, and we can’t accurately guess how to react accordingly. You either don’t react(what I’m going to do at this point) or you overreact(what a lot of people are doing). While I’m not a huge fan of BA, they did still have Bumgarner ranked #5 on their midseason list, and they have access to much more data than we do. If his velocity had been an issue all year, I doubt he’d have sat as the top pitcher and top 5 overall on their list. Just saying. I should also point out I’m not a Giants fan, and out of the multiple fantasy leagues I play in the one that I own Bumgarner in has about a 3% chance of returning next year, so it’s not like I have a huge investment in the kid. I just think people are overreacting without enough info at this point.
RIP Nick Adenhart
If the Giants were trying to hide something...
… why would they give him a major league start? Seems like a pretty lousy way of hiding something.
Too Logical
of a point FH. Now I appreciate it and think its an excellent point but others here wont.
Typos
3rd paragraph should read;
For the record, I would love to have Bum myself, but he obviously would have me worried and have lost value since last year/since the start season. I’d be dumb to think otherwise.
Ahhh, Typos again
4th paragraph where it says; Of course he does have the same value as before and possibly even the potential as before
Should read; Of course he does not have the same value as before and possibly not even the potential as before
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