Sorry in advance...keeper league question.
by flipgatey3 on Sep 8, 2009 3:44 PM EDT
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PrintHey all, for starters, enjoy the site a lot...in a keeper league with a minors/arbitration system and get a lot of my info on who to scout from this site.
Here goes nothing.
I'm in a 10-team keeper league. We have a minor league system in which players become arb-eligible when they qualify for ROY (150 ab's, 40 ip IIRC), and my team was a borderline playoff team around the trade deadline. I decided teams were stronger than me, so I traded some non-keepers for some pretty solid prospects.
The way our system works is this:
-8 minor league spots. Once a player qualifies for ROY and you recall him to the active roster, he can't be sent back down (unless sent back down in MLB).
-"CEK's (Contract-eligible keepers)": the arbitration-eligible players. We have an incremental system in which a rookie who qualifies is $3, plus a dollar for every 50 fantasy points accumulated. A second-year player is $5 plus $2 for every 50 FPTS accumulated, and a third-year player is $7 plus $3 for every 50.
-New rule (which i despise): Maximum of 4 first year, 3 second year, and two 3rd year keepers (in addition to our 5 major-league keepers).
THE PROBLEM:
Right now, my five keepers are shaping up to be Jon Lester, Mark Teixeira, Josh Johnson, Matt Holliday and Johan Santana.
I have a couple off-season trade offers for some prominent players, and I don't really want to keep Johan this year. I have a deal for Chris Carpenter on the table. The problem is this: at the deadline, I traded a couple guys to the team with Carpenter for Mat Latos. My minor league roster looks like this right now:
-No third-year CEKs
-Joba Chamberlain and Chris Volstad (2nd year CEKs)
-Andrew McCutchen, Mat Latos, Colby Rasmus, Brian Matusz, Trevor Cahill, Mat Gamel, Bud Norris (1st-year CEKs)
-Jenrry Mejia, Mike Stanton, Desmond Jennings, Ryan Westmoreland, Matt Moore, Chris Withrow, Jason Knapp, Lonnie Chisenhall (minors)
As you can see, I have seven players for four 1st-year CEK spots. I have a deal on the table for Gamel, so that eliminates one. I can probably cut Norris, although I really like him.
Here's the point of the post. I have a deal on the table for Chris Carpenter to be my fifth keeper in place of Santana. I had originally offered Matusz, but now I am starting to think maybe Latos would be the better choice. Here's a quick, incomplete to be fair, pros/cons on the two:
LATOS pros: great stuff, PETCO, 9+ k/9 at every stop in minors
LATOS cons: terrible Padres offense, 39/23 k/bb in 50 ip in bigs (SSS, but it's what I have to work with), 4.70 fip. seems to have been a bit lucky.
MATUSZ pros: four pitches, good college, draft pedigree, quick riser, 35 k's in 37.2 ip in bigs (again, SSS), 9 k/9 in minors. 4.25 fip in bigs
MATUSZ cons: ERA/whip is inflated by babip, but it still is what it is. orioles don't have the best offense.
I'll include a poll...thanks in advance for your comments.
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sorry for the long post
again, thanks for your comments…interesting that matusz is leading 4-0, anyone have any input?
"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball
Carpenter
He’s 34+ this year and isn’t getting younger. I’d let your young pitching develop, but don’t get too infatuated with your minor leaguers as MLB players are more valuable. I’d cut either Cahill or Norris. I think they’ll be solid MLB pitchers, but are more likely to mediocre 3’s or 4’s.
"When Justin Upton faces Lincecum, I think Christ might appear in the heavens, and the world will end." -JakeFree
Cahill and Norris do not belong in the same sentence
Cahill is a 21 year old holding his own in the MLB. He needs to seriously work on his control, but he can still be a top of the rotation starter. Bud Norris doesn’t have anywhere near that kind of ceiling and is probably best suited for the bullpen.
They are both holding their own, but in terms of fantasy...
I’d consider cutting both if not either. I’d obviously cut Norris first, but Cahill needs more development time. I disagree with Norris being suited for the bullpen though. He has the stuff to become a competent starter; however, he has control issues as well.
I don’t disagree about their different talent levels, but notice this is a fantasy question and should be answered as such. I believe Cahill needs more time in the minors, Norris is probably a number 3, Cahill (if he plateaus) is a number 3, and at this point either could be cut with what flipgatey3 has his set keepers.
"When Justin Upton faces Lincecum, I think Christ might appear in the heavens, and the world will end." -JakeFree
let me rephrase that
carpenter is my 5th major league keeper if i do the deal, and i can only keep 4 first year players. i need to get it down from 6 somehow.
"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball
Ok,
so don’t the deal, keep your top five as you have them or try to trade two of the pitchers for an elite bat. Next, cut Norris from your minors first, if necessary the 2nd guy I would cut would be Cahill. Santana should bounce back from having a minor elbow surgery. The main reasons why I prefer him over Carpenter is that he doesn’t have injury history as Carpenter, he’s younger, and he’s had a better career overall. It’s not to say I don’t think Carpenter is good, but at this point it’s just personal preference, but if you have to give up more than Santana to get Carpenter, then I wouldn’t do anything.
"When Justin Upton faces Lincecum, I think Christ might appear in the heavens, and the world will end." -JakeFree
If you trade for Carp....
what happens to Johan? Can you trade him for draft picks? Can you package him and two 1st year CEK’s to get a 2nd year and two 3rd years? What is Gamel brining back in trade? I guess my first thought would be to see if you can turn two of your 1st year CEK’s into the needed 2nd and 3rd years guys(minus whatever Gamel might be bringing back) and just hold with Johan. Do you have finalize your keepers right after the season, or do you have some time to try and work other deals?
If you only have the above options to choose from, I guess I’d go with keeping Johan and cutting Cahill and Norris. But if I were in your shoes I’d see what I could do with some other trades involving some 1st year guys.
RIP Nick Adenhart
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