My Top 20 Eastern League Prospects
by Bravesin07 on Sep 7, 2009 10:40 AM EDT
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PrintThis was a league that started out with average talent, but exploded as the season went on. There is arguably 5 of the top 15 prospects in baseball in this league. Not sure if Brian Matsuz would count based on 46 IP, but i'll include him. I'm also going to include Domonic Brown despite only 144 AB's.
4) Brian Matsuz
6) Domonic Brown
7) Jenrry Mejia
8) Kyle Drabek
9) Michael Taylor
10) Josh Reddick
11) Hector Rondon
12) Wilson Ramos
13) Ike Davis
14) Nick Weglarz
15) Ryan Kalish
16) Zach McAllister
17) Ruban Tejada
18) Lars Anderson
19) Jose Tabata
20) Alex Avila
Near misses: Tim Alderson, Brad Holt, Jose Thole, Jennmer Gomez, and Brandon Erbe.
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Great League for Prospects this Year
I think nearly everyone on the list has a chance at top 100 – including the honorable mentions.
This might be the first Top _ list that’s been posted that I agree with almost completely. Bumgarner has slipped hard for me to the point that I think I’d take Drabek in his place. If you switched those two I’d be perfectly fine with this.
And god, what a deep league.
My uncle says you've got a screw loose.
Your uncle molests collies.
I'd just move Bumgarner down a few spots, maybe to #8.
Because I’d still take Mejia over Drabek.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
WOW did I just forgot someone in the top 10
Josh Reddick would be in the top 8
This is a really good list
I’m piqued by Wilson Ramos’ high placement; he’s a guy I’ve liked for quite awhile, and you may have him four or so spots higher than I would.
Is this based on personal observation (to go along with his tools and performance)?
pedro
is too low in my opinion. the bat is that good.
i don’t care about youth or position in regards to jesus and carlos (both of whom should be very good). pedro’s bat is going to be a big time, middle of the order producer.
So do most power hitters...
Ryan Howard, Adam Dunn, Mark Reynolds, Carlos Pena, Jayson Werth, Jason Bay
Power hitters are going to strike out, if he hits the ball hard and for big time power #‘s he’s going to be ok. Guys with high K% that generally fail are guys with outrageous 40% K rate or speedsters with little power who strike out 25-30% of the time.
it may
have something to do with a 19 year old posting a .900+ OPS in not only a bad league for hitters but a very poor park for hitters
Bumgarner
It really shows the danger and, confusion caused in ranking, a prospect who has been rushed. If Bumgarner could have just pitched all year in the Cal League most likely the numbers would be better- the K’s would be up- and for what? Who is EVER really ready to help a big league team when he is 21 anyways?
That being said it is amazing what he has done this year considering a guy like Matusz has had 2 and 1/2 years to grow- go to college- legally have a drink etc.
pwned
Doc was ROY, 2nd in Cy Young voting, and an All Star in his age 19 season. At least he didn’t ask about the age 20 season.
U missed the point
My point was that NOBODY – except the rare, great players like the one you mentioned can actually help a team at 20 or 19 for that matter. So Bumgarner is either a) one of those or B) No need to rush him to the big leagues.
So your point was...
…that he’s either special or he’s not? Please clarify this. I’m not really arguing with you, but I did enjoy talking about Doc. I met him when I was still in elementary school, and shook his hand. He seemed really nice.
No argument then
What I was saying is that only an awesome talent like Dwight Gooden is capable of helping a team when they are that young- even many, many Hall Of Fame Pitchers weren’t any good in the big leagues when they were 19, 20, 21. So I think they should take it slower with Bumgarner.
As far as The Doc- that’s cool Man! Doc was one of my favorites and I got to see his no-hitter with the Yankees after he had been through so much. He always seemes like a good person – and a soft spoken one- so it was surprising that he got into so much trouble there for a while. He was AMAZING though. One of my favorites of all-time and a hero of my childhood. It’s cool you got to meet him JW.
Also some more big names....
Ken Griffey Jr.
Al Kaline (MVP runner up in his year 20 season)
Mickey Mantle
Don Drysdale
Bert Blyleven
Wally Bunker
Pretty lofty
Pretty lofty names that are mentioned as 19-20-year-old phenoms from the past. Bumgarner – along with Fernando Martinez – probably is one of the most interesting prospects in Baseball right now. Much younger than his competition, pretty good numbers for the level but not the total dominance of some older peers at a similar level.
Some see him as a future superstar / # 1 starter, others are turned off by his declining K-rate and questions regarding the quality of his overall stuff.
Considering the pretty large sample size of ERAs below 2.00 at any pro level he has pitched at, I´d give him the benefit of the doubt for now. And even if he´s not a groundball out machine, considering his likely future home park in SF, that may not be much of an issue either.
So, what should the Giants do with him besides handling him with care ? Let him repeat Double A in spite of the sub 2,00 ERA and hope for more dominance in terms of secondary numbers and let him work on his secondary pitches with less pressure ?
Or bring him up for spring 2010 and let him start out as the # 5 starter or as a middle reliever initially to possibly learn to handle adversity (which he really hasn´t had yet besides April 2008 and a short stretch in July 2009) at the major league level ?
Or send him to the PCL and see how he handles that hitter-friendly league to begin 2010 ?
+1
Those guys really are pure phenoms, I love how at 20 years old people are knocking a guy despite having an ERA around 2.00 his ENTIRE professional career despite playing against people 2-3 years older! Bums done nothing to prove that he won’t be a successful pitcher at the major league level. That being said, the lack of K’s is going to concern EVERYONE. Strikeouts are considered to be the most telling of future success because it is the one thing entirely in the pitcher’s control. However he’s 20! You figure he should be able to add maybe 1-2 mph more on his fastball, and continuing working on his curve which he’s only been throwing for 2 years! My wonder is how many of those phenom pitchers didn’t start throwing a curve until they reached professional baseball? The scouting reports seem to indicate that his curve is improving. All these people need to be patient!
As for what to do with Bum this is a pickle. Fresno is where pitchers seem to go to die, and the lack of K’s indicate he hasn’t master the AA level while the ERA indicates that he’s still able to easily get outs. My suggestion? Start the kid for a month in AA and then bump him to AAA…that way he’s able to reassert his ability to get guys out, while hopefully striking guys out, while still getting challenged. It’d be similar to their treatment of him this year, so I see it as reasonable.
by lincecum and cain then pray for rain on Sep 8, 2009 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions
The only thing that matters is how a prospect performs in the bigs
Dominating the minors is completely meaningless if it doesn’t translate to the majors. Not saying that MadBum won’t, but proving you can get minor leaguers out doesn’t mean you will be able to get major leaguers out, which is all that matters when evaluating a prospect.
I'll add Migs Cabrera to that list
Age 20 against the Cubs in 2003 NLCS: .333/.394/.633 with 9 R and 6 RBI.
Small sample size or not, that is pretty helpful.
During that regular season, he was .793 OPS in 346 PA so not a worldbeater or recordholder but still fantastic for a rookie. His age 21 year OPS was .879.
by two fishsticks on Sep 7, 2009 10:41 PM EDT up reply actions
What the Giants do well
is develop pitchers, not just throwers. MadBum is obviously able to get OUTS and to keep the opponent from scoring. And his stats suggest command, control and poise well beyond his age and experience. I expect that as his secondary pitches improve, his K rates will increase, since his arsenal will be more varied. That said, let’s give the kid some credit for being one of the best pitchers in the minors with just purportedly one pitch.
by baseballjunkie on Sep 8, 2009 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Why is Lars Anderson on this list?
What did he do this year to justify his placement on this list? Statistically-speaking, David Cooper had a better season.
Jeez
So, by one bad year, you discount entirely the prospect status he had before? Its not the top-20 based on a vaccuum, but the top 20 based on everything. Lars is still a top 20 prospect in that league.
Oh, I'm sorry...
Let’s all get excited about a guy who finished the season at a blistering .105 clip in his last thirty-nine at-bats.
It's not just the last 39 ABs
He really did not hit all year long. A lack of production coupled with scouts proclaiming he has “old man skills” means I highly doubt he’ll be making my top 100 next year.
I'd have put Strieby as at least an HM
He looked like the real deal (worked the count, drove the ball with authority and extremely “loud” contact, didn’t embarrass himself in LF) when I saw him in person, and the stats are hard to ignore.
Anybody out there think...
that Ruben Tejada would be ahead of Jose Tabata or Ike Davis over Lars Anderson?
I think I would put Lars at #13 ahead of Davis and the others
http://milbprospects.blogspot.com/
Davis/Anderson
Just a year ago it would have seemed crazy. Which goes to show how quickly things can change. Perhaps they could again.
Davis: .309/386/.565 in Eastern league. wOBA .426
Anderson: .233/.328/.345 this year in EL. wOBA .315.
Davis has a high babip, Anderson low. last year Anderson had the freakishly high babip.
Anderson has some componetnts where he did better:
Anderson: BB% 12.4% K 25.5%
Davis: BB 11.2% k rate 29%.
Davis’s half season in AA is similar to Anderson’s partial last year.
Anderson is 6 months younger, not all that much.
Even correcting for Davis’s high babip and Anderson’s low babip somewhat, Davis has a decided advantage this year, per minorleaguesplits:
Davis: .290/.369/.535
Anderson: .242/.335/.351.
And Ike’s ISO is a very impressive .256. Anderson at .112 and even last year, .211.
Against lefties in the EL:
Davis .268/.342/.465 (less than 100 PA)
Anderson: .221/.336/.287.
Does Anderson have an injury, back issue? Not sure if I heard that. And I thought, although didn’t hear much about it, that Davis hasd a lingering wrist isue last year.
Whatever the reason for Anderson’s woes, I think right now there is no way you can rank him ahead of Davis. But of course Anderson was head and shoulders above Ike coming into this year.
As for tejada, a 19 eyar old who can hold his own with the stick in EL and plays a good ss, swipe 20 bases or so without getting caught much? Hmm, what’s not to like?
Tejada
I love Tejada. I have been on his bandwagon since the Mets signed him. As for Lars, if he is healthy he should slide, but one bad year is not enough for me to ignore him. He
still has a high ceiling if he can get right again. I know I’m in the minority and am fine with that.
http://milbprospects.blogspot.com/
by Matt Garrioch on Sep 10, 2009 1:26 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
How could you possibly put Lars ahead of Davis?
You must be out of your mind.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
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